2012 Reader Top 30, #26

Perci Garner took #25 with the greatest of ease, and so now we move to #26. Only five spots remaining, and Kyrell Hudson collected the most write-in support, so he will enter the poll for #26. Just to update you, my plan is to do #27-30 next Monday-Thursday and then to release my Top 30 on Friday. That is subject to change, as I have a lot of writing to do to get everything ready. It may be pushed back to the following Monday. Stay tuned.

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS
12. Larry Greene Jr, OF
13. Jiwan James, OF
14. Tyson Gillies, OF
15. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP
16. Roman Quinn, SS/OF
17. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
18. Austin Wright, LHP
19. Brian Pointer, OF
20. Mitchell Walding, SS
21. Carlos Tocci, OF
22. Aaron Altherr, OF
23. Cameron Rupp, C
24. Austin Hyatt, RHP
25. Perci Garner, RHP

Check below for #26

71 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #26

  1. I’m voting Harold Garcia.
    Recovery from ACL injuries can be iffy, but prior to that he showed enough to be higher.
    Hopefully he can return 100%

      1. I don’t necessarily disagree with voting for him at this point. I’m maybe a little more skeptical of him than some, a combination of the low BB rate and questions whether he really can be a legitimate .300 hitter in the major leagues. He’s not really much of a contact hitter; his only shot of a .300 plus BA would be sustaining an unusually high BABIP.

        I’m not dismissive of the possibility that he might do so (albeit probably not quite at the level he has this far exhibited), partly because thus far he has managed to do so at every level and secondarily because of his speed. I’m curious: what’s been the basis for his high BABIP so far? I’d guess his speed – legging out IF hits – but does he also have a high line drive rate (I keep losing the link to the site with minor league line drive data)?

        Anyway, he is an interesting guy to follow, and has some positives certainly as player. As I said, I’m not as high on him as some, but at this stage of the list he’s a reasonable pick.

        1. Baseball America Currently Rates Garcia as the #1 Phillies Prospect for Average……..
          Age and Recovering for Injury is why he is now this low.

          1. That’s a data point. And obviously he would be higher but for the injury and his age; it all factors in.

            I get frustrated, though, by these types of debates. They always have a structure of me saying: “well, here’s why he may not be a .300 hitter in the majors, and here are a couple of factors that, if true, might make me (partially) wrong.” The responses, instead of engaging my arguments, tend to be along the lines of … well, often not arguments at all, but mere assertions. Or, in this case, arguments from authority – not necessarily a logical fallacy if the authority is good, but often underwhelming.

            A guy who doesn’t hit many home runs, and who doesn’t have good contact skills, has to have a crazy high BABIP to hit .300. In this case, assume a 20% K rate and a 2% HR rate (both in line with his minor league totals). In order to hit .300, he would need a crazy high BABIP of .359. On a career basis, I think there’s one guy right now in the majors who has that high a BABIP – Ichiro. Basically that assumes an historically good ability to get IF hits, plus well above average line drive hitting ability. Possible, for sure. Likely? No. I certainly see Garcia as a guy who, because of his speed and (possibly – I asked and no one saw fit to answer) good line drive skills, as a guy who could have a well above average BABIP. But I don’t see him as a .300 hitter unless he gets his K rate well below 20%.

            He’s a guy who, if he recovers quickly from the injury, combines above average (but not exceptional) BA skills, some pop, reportedly decent defense, and speed, at a premium defensive position. That could make him a marginal regular, but just that. If he can work on his contact and on base skills, he could be more than that. But that’s where the age comes in; how much additional progress can we expect, especially with a lost year of development?

            *No one saying his BA isn’t an asset – but is he a guy who is going to be a .300 hitter in a typical season during his peak years? IMO probably not.

            1. I did a search of recent players who have career averages over .300. Essentially without exception, they are players with good contact skills. Over the long haul, a 20% K% is not compatible with a .300 average, except perhaps for a guy who hits a ton of HR. (See, e.g., Manny Ramirez, though even in his case, his K% is below 20%).

            2. At #26, The fact a player’s chances are iffy is not in question.
              However, the fact remains that professional scouts ranked his BA skills #1 in the system.
              Despite that ranking, He does not deserve a Top 20 ranking for many of the reasons above.

              However, that does bring him into the conversation at #25-#30.
              Especially since his Fielding and Baseskills are a bit above average or at least have been historically.

              This is not to say he has a good chance of being a regular at the MLB level, there is not anyone at this point that would qualify for that, though some players at the very low levels may have more upward potential but a big question mark to accomplish the things Garcia has such as the Hitting Streak record for the FSL.

              There are likely 2-3 Players that could fit into this slot such as H. Martinez, Castro, etc… but I’m not sure any of these players are highly differentiated.

            3. Well I did start this out by saying that “I don’t necessarily disagree with voting for him at this point.” 🙂

              I’m really curious, though, about the the Baseball America rating of his BA skills. Is that to some extent an indication of the weakness of the Phillies’ other prospects in that regard (maybe so – we have some interesting prospects, but no one who I would think is a potential .300 hitter at this point.). A guy who strikes out 20% of the time, who (apparently – I didn’t realize this) is not an above average line drive hitter – meh, I won’t repeat myself. What are the scouts seeing that make him such a good prospect from a batting average perspective? Yeah, his raw batting averages are good, but that’s not really a scouting issue.

            4. I think it’s important, when evaluating a minor league player’s potential major league BA, to almost ignore minor league batting average. From a statistical perspective, look at contact rate first, speed and line drive abilities second and third, and HR power 4th. Maybe BB fifth, for their long run indirect effect on BA (getting decent pitches to hit). Batting average itself – maybe a distant 7th? His astrological sign might be a better predictor of this major league batting average. Okay, I exaggerate, but you get the point.

              Obviously there will by non -statistical factors scouts might pick up on, but there’s just way too much noise in minor league batting averages to give them any significant weight at all.

            5. Interesting discussion on Garcia here. And I have to say I’m not too high on him for many of the reasons that LarryM and other discussed. If he can recover his lateral range and speed, I see a .270/.305/.370 quality utility hitter, which is certainly helpful (better than Valdez for instance), but hardly worth futzing over.

              My view on where to rank him…if that package came with no health concerns, the late 20’s would seem to be correct. With the health concerns and his probably replacement level ceiling, I can’t really reconcile voting for him above guys with considerable ceilings.

  2. I went Harold martinez hoping he’s going to be a starting 3b…considered Hudson…they are only two I think can be a starter for this team…slim pickings

    1. Sure, Martinez. Another guy who hasn;t played enough to get a reasonable read on his potential. Nothing from his few games as a professional to indicate much one way or another.

      He is the 7th of 25 voted in by these dubious conjectures with no or only flimsy evidence.A weaker case than Garner even (JC Ramirez at the same age has over 550 IP in A & AA ball; Garner has 34 in rookie ball, NONE in Class A yet; and within a few months of major hip surgery Ramirez last summer won 11 games in Double A.)

  3. I wrote in Herlis Rodriguez. He was a league average bat in the VSL as a 17-year-old. He has a good walk rate. He has a little bit of pop, but not a ton. He was terrible at stealing bases. Anyway, that kind of hitting performance at such a young age gets me all excited. We’ll see where he is placed this year – that will tell us a lot about what the Phils think his potential is.

    1. I have Herlis as a write-in this time around too. Something about the numbers he put up as a 17-year old just gets my juices flowing. He was the only reason I looked at the VSL box scores last year. I’m hoping he makes a state-side appearance this year.

      1. You have to be honest about a vote for Herlis at this point- it’s like trying to look smart instead of an intelligent choice- it’s like picking Winder Torres in 2007. I’m not saying that I won’t be watching the kid- but common.

    2. Herlis Rodriguez is an interesting name to follow as a sleeper. I have a hard time believing he could be considered the best prospect left though.
      I look at it this way: If the Phillies had to make a “Scott Eyre-Tad Iguchi” level trade right now, who do you think the other team would be more likely to ask for in return? Herlis Rodriguez, Manzanillo, Adam Morgan, JC Ramirez or Lino Martinez? I would think a team would ask for any one of those pitchers before asking for Rodriguez.
      Obviously I think those pitchers are the more valuable prospects, but maybe I’m missing something. I’ll be keeping an eye out for him during the season.

  4. Dugan again. Hudson Really? 503 PA’s .275 OBP .232 AVG and a .569 OPS. I’ll even give you his ISO of just last year as being improved but I like him behind quite a few more guys at this stage. He is still only 21 so I like that about him.

    1. Hudson is a plus fielding CF with the ability to steal 50 bases. The offensive standard if much lower for players with secondary skills at premium positions.
      Kelly Dugan just hit for a .730 OPS, in his 3rd year in Short season, as a RF/1B. He would have to OPS about 200 points higher to be a prospect.

      1. It was Dugan’s 3rd season, but it’s not like he had a ton of at-bats in his first two years. He’s also got some pedigree being a high draft pick. I wouldn’t vote for him yet but Hudson is almost the same age and his OPS was 50 points lower than Dugan’s. It was also Hudson’s 3rd year in SS ball so your point kind of goes out the window. He’s fast but he can’t hit yet- at all.

        1. My point doesn’t go out the window at all. You missed the point. Kelly Dugan has to hit MUCH higher than Hudson, to be considered a better prospect. If Hudson raises his OPS from last year 50 pts and mantains that level, he can be a major leaguer beçause of his secondary skills. Kelly Dugan will have to raise his OPS 150 points and maintain that level, if he is to become a mlb corner OF. He has to raise it even higher if he is to be a 1B.
          Dugan’s plus tool when he was drafted, was power potential. He has, what, 3 HRs in 3 years. This Dugan talk is borderline silly.

          1. I don’t disagree that Hudson’s offensive expectations are lower than Dugan’s. And I specifically meant your point about it being Dugan’s 3rd year, not the overall point about offensive standards. I think this is too high a spot for either guy- I just don’t see how one guy would make sense here and the other one would be ludicrous. Neither have been very impressive, but you make a good case for Hudson at least being higher than Dugan.

  5. JC Ramirez. There is no other player on the list that I have confidence will get more than a cup of coffee in the Major Leagues.
    Last year Wolever said he was a major league pitcher, but constancy was his problem. I believe Ramirez will be converted to Reliever and have a MLB career. The others I am not sure about.

    1. I agree. I think you are 100% correct. But he’s been so mediocre that at this point I’m looking for young guys with high ceilings ahead of him. But he could very well end up being this year’s Mike Stutes.

    2. I think there’s a tendency to get too hung up in statistics at short season and rookie ball. This mostly applies to the GCL and VSL teams, but it has some bearing on Williamsport as well. Inconsistent opposition, short sample sizes, inconsistent playing time, poorer facilities and the instructional nature of the league all effect performance. Plus, kids at the age of 18-21 vary wildly in terms of their output. Stephen Strasburg went undrafted out of high school. Three years later he’s the most hyped pitcher in the history of the draft. There’s a real danger in writing off a young player based on performance.

      As far as Hudson, VOR pointed out his defense and speed. Both are MLB caliber tools. The bat needs development but Hudson took a HUGE step forward last season. Hudson increased his power, walked more, hit for a far better average, struck out less, Everything moved in the right direction. Hudson is a project but I don’t think there’s a player left with more upside.

  6. This is the first time in a long time my list is the same as the list voted so far, (way out of order, of course…I had Rupp at 15 and Walding at 25). I think Garner’s big win last round really does show the next big break in the prospects. This next group is unproven guys with decent upsides, (Manzanilla and Hudson and Morgan in that group), and proven guys with low upsides, like the remaining relievers and Overbeck/Mitchell types.

    I took HMart here. He didn’t exactly light the world on fire in the NYP league, and if he does get the double jump, he may not light the world on fire in the FSL. He drew a good number of walks, his OBP was .357, which is not bad. A year from now, I could see him as a top 15 guy, especially is he finds a little more power and manages to not strike out at quite as high a rate.

  7. I know the Phillies don’t currently have a lot of top teir specs left, but man, the system is freaking deep with young athletes who could break out still.

  8. your wrong on guys like Overbeck/Mitchell, They both will prove there worth, just because they weren’t Drafted high they both have the tools and some to play in the bigs.

    1. Didn’t say they won’t play in the bigs. I just question at what level. I think Mitchell could turn into a 4th OF if he proves he can hit consistently if he only gets 150-200 PA per year, (which we don’t know). I don’t think he profiles as a legit starter on a good team unless he shows consistent power in AAA – Reading is a hitters’ park and he did well, so good for him. If he has like a 20/20 season in AAA and hits .290, then maybe he’s got a chance. I don’t see it happening.

      Same really with Overbeck. He’s a good hitter, no doubt, but his defense has been in question. I think he’d probably hit fine as an everyday major leaguer. I don’t think he’ll do it for a top line team like the Phils, and I don’t think other teams will pay value to get him.

      I don’t care where these two guys were drafted. That’s personally not much of an issue for me unless it’s someone who was just drafted in the prior 2 years and doesn’t have much for stats. Once they have stats, you can evaluate them a lot more and, draft round/signing bonus shouldn’t matter much, if at all.

        1. Actually, I think the word on Overbeck is that he’s a very good fastball hitter. Its what gives him a chance to be a major league pinch hitter/ bench guy. I do think Mitchell has played himself up to possibly be a 5th OF type but it won’t be with a team like the Phils.

    2. Definately agree JoeDE/If the 2011 draft comes through (Greene, Greene, Quinn, Walding, Martinez, Wright, Morgan, Shull, etc) players coming off injuries have comeback yrs (Garcia, Gillies, Castro, Garner) and some guys who were once rated higher but stock dropped also bounce back after a poor showing last season (CHernandez, Altherr, JC Ramirez, etc) then the depth of our system might start to show.

  9. I went with Harold here, a guy that I think will push for major league playing time next year. He would have pushed this year if he hadn’t missed most of last year. He’s a legit switch hitting 300 hitter with speed. I still don’t think Manzanilla will have a starting job so that excludes him from my top 50. Hudson is a guy I like quite a bit and I know Morandini liked Dugan. We definitely have lots of guys in the 30 – 50 group that could easily break into the top 30 with a good year this year. Hopefully, we’re only a year away from having a top system again but it will require lots of guys taking that next step and the new guys being close to what we envision.

      1. Especially since he’s plenty young to repeat the league, (and was plenty wild last season to repeat the league as well). If they think he has any shot at being a starter in his career, they’ll keep him starting.

      2. I think he’s shown a good arm but they’re really going to have a problem with so many good arms (not really a problem) finding work for all. I have Colvin, Biddle, Bonilla, Buchanan and Claypool or Wright at CWater with Claypool/Wright, Morgan, Garner, Lino Martinez and Nesseth at LWood. Maybe they’ll bump Wright or Morgan all the way to Reading or maybe Manzanilla will take Lino’s spot but that’s it. At Reading, the 5th spot is open perhaps but I’m hoping Naylor is back and takes that. The Phils resigned him and there’s no room for him at AAA so if he’s starting, that’s 5 at Reading because the other 4 spots are taken obviously. Unless they surpise many of us and move JC to the pen at the beginning of the year to open a spot there.

          1. Of course he will. Solid prospects are never held up or shoved to the bullpen so that chancy prospects can be in the rotation. That just doesn’t happen, and it shouldn’t happen.

    1. I don’t see how that can possibly be true. Martinez had a poor season offensively at Williamsport. A .705 OPS doesn’t get it done. Even if he double jumps to Clearwater for 2012 and has something of a breakout season, he isn’t getting past Reading in 2013. He was a good college 3B, but by no means at the head of the pack going into the draft. He did nothing last season that says he was under drafted and since he didn’t sign for a ton of money, the other teams didn’t think he was a primo pick kind of guy. There is just no way he is in Phillly in 2013. That is just fantastical thinking.

      1. Not that I disagree with anything you’re saying about Harold Martinez, but the poster was probably suggesting Harold *Garcia* would be the one in Philly in a year.

  10. Almost didn’t have time to vote today, was too busy scooping up tickets to that Phils series in Washington in May….

      1. About 50 tickets so far. Know a few people in MD who bought some seats and they found a few more people that bought some seats, and a few paypal transactions and I’m all set. Now I’m going to post them for sale on ebay, just enough to cover my cost and a few extra bucks for the hassle and state in the ad that they are only available for sale to people with credit card addresses in the Delaware Valley area. Our goal for stupidity like this should be to sell out their ballpark with about 90% phils fans.

  11. I’m going with JC Ramirez. By most accounts he has the stuff, but lacks the consistency. His numbers are the same as Vance Worley when he was in Reading. He can turn it around. He has the talent.

  12. General Discussion note……Pablo Sandoval underwent LASIK surgery on his left eye during the offseason and is seeing the ball well so far, though the real test will come during game action. Assuming he’s satisfied with the results, he’ll likely get the procedure on his right eye next winter…..maybe Anthony Hewitt or some of the toolsy OFs we have, who do everything but make contact, should think about this procedure also.

      1. Many LASIK experts say not to get it before Age 25 due to changes in bone structure around the ocular cavity in that time period…this is especially true for men as they are still filling out in that period.

        I remember hearing that several times when I looked into the surgery in my early 20s.

    1. Why would you assume that the reason they don’t make contact has anything to do with their ability to see? I keep seeing this idea popping up on this site from time to time and I don’t understand why anyone would think that having eye surgery is going to make them hit better.

      If it were really that easy, minor leaguers everywhere would be running to the nearest Lasik surgeon.

  13. Any word on the health of Nick Hernandez and Matt Way? If we could those guys healthy that can help the left handed pitching depth in the system.

    1. The system already has Jesse Biddle, Austin Wright, Adam Morgan, Mario Hollands, Lino Martinez and Ethan Stewart. How much more would two oft-injured, older, middling prospects add.

      1. It is always nice to have the depth even if they are only a LOOGY for a month because those arms can sometimes be hard to find in the middle of the season.

  14. Random thought…would love to go to Spring Training this year at a time where I could invest the greatest amount of my time in watching our prospects. I know from last year many commenters on this site attended minor league spring training and probably have lots of insight and tips as to the best time to go, what times of day to go watch certain aspects, etc. Would be really cool to have a posy dedicated to this topic for those wanting to attend spring training, if there are others…also a good opportunity for us to submit writeups and video clips of what we are watching while down there.

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