2012 Reader Top 30, #23

2012 Reader Top 30

Mitchell Walding comfortably won the run-off vote for #20, meaning Carlos Tocci becomes #21 and Aaron Altherr won the vote for #22. With that burst of activity, we move on to #23. Derrick Mitchell received the most write-in support and will enter the ballot this round. As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS
12. Larry Greene Jr, OF
13. Jiwan James, OF
14. Tyson Gillies, OF
15. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP
16. Roman Quinn, SS/OF
17. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
18. Austin Wright, LHP
19. Brian Pointer, OF
20. Mitchell Walding, SS
21. Carlos Tocci, OF
22. Aaron Altherr, OF
23.

Check below for #23

60 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #23”

  1. Going with Garner here. Classic power righty with a high ceiling and injury concerns. 23 seems about right.

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    1. With both of those guys, we’re just going off of BA saying they have some great tools. Their performances have been mediocre. It is hard for me to rate them, though I have moved Manzanillo up my list. As for Hudson, I have HeRod, Castro, Dugan, and Eldemire ahead of him. Maybe I’m rating him too low, especially relative to Eldemire. But those other guys have shown more promise on the field.

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      1. In the case of Manzanillo, I know a guy (Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospect Nation) with good scouting contacts who says that scouts have a lot of great things to say about him. I believe Manzanillo was 13 on Mark’s list due to having one of the better pitching ceilings in the system.

        Castro seems like he has a 5th OFer ceiling unless he rapidly figures out plate discipline. I have to squint to consider him a prospect. The others are just as (un)distinguished as Hudson as far as I can tell. With all of these guys, you can squint and see something in their stats, but at the end of the day their numbers are telling us next to nothing.

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        1. But seriously, you have to squint awfully hard to see Hudson as a prospect too. Those other guys have shown more on the field. They have tools too, though perhaps their best tools are not as good as Hudson’s best tools.

          No disrespect to Hudson, I really want him to do well. But he does not get me all that excited as a prospect.

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  3. I like Garner, but went with Savery. After having a nice comeback last year, he has a decent chance to be with the Phils at some point this year. Also, what about Diekman?

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  5. Garner could fly up the charts with a good season. I voted for Rupp again. He could do the same. Premium position with reportedly good defense, big man with the potential to hit for some power.

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  6. For me, it was between Garner and Schwimer. A high upside/low certainty versus moderate upside/high certainty proposition. We shouldn’t overlook Schwimer, he’s going to have a decent major league career as middle reliever and perhaps even a set-up man (I doubt that much of that career will be for the Phillies – I expect to see him in a trade at some point). As for Hyatt, I like him and think he will make the majors, but he’s still got a way to go.

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    1. Phils just signed Chad Qualls to a $1.15 million deal. Not sure they needed him (in fact, I’m pretty sure they didn’t), but, most years, he has been a perfectly competent middle reliever (basically, another Chad Durbin – not that there’s anything wrong with that). He had a big hiccup in 2010, but seemed to move past that last year. This reinforces the notion that they are going to have to move some of their young relievers as there is now a log jam.

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      1. I don’t think they have to move anyone as they have have options remaining. It creates some depth. DeFratus, Aumont, Savery will have to push their way in and/or wait for injuries. And considering Jose Contreras’ health, you have to account for that as well.

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        1. No, they don’t have to move anyone right now, but, at some point in the near future, there’s just not going to be enough room for guys who, by all rights, should be major league players.

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          1. Contreras is in the last year of his deal and Willis and Qualls were signed for just 1 year so if Schwimmer, DeFratus, Aumont, etc. all show themselves to be ready this season, they will be able to quickly make space.

            No doubt there will be plenty of opportunities in 2012 for the minor league releivers to show what they have in the big leagues due to injuries, etc.

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        1. One of the scribes, Salisbury I think, stated that Lidge’s exit was based on the fact the Phillies are confident that Contreras is healthy and ready to go this spring.

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      3. Chad Qualls is essentially what David Herndon could be. I like that signing. For a million bucks, you never know when a reliever like him is going to have a career year.

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    1. I have Savery ahead of Diekman based on proximity to the majors and the fact that I still haven’t seen Diekman fix his control issues for a full season.

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    2. Diekman is a wild card. He throws faster than Savery. But his walk rate both of the prior two seasons was 6.1 per nine innings. Much, much too high. And Diekman really doesn’t have an age argument. He was 24 in AA compared to 25 for Savery reaching the majors. Savery struck out fewer batters but he still struck out over 10 per nine. Savery walked three times fewer batters and did not allow a home run all season.

      Essentially the only advantage Diekman has over Savery is that Diekman touches 94 mph while Savery touches 92. I don’t think 2 mph on a fastball is enough to offset Savery’s other advantages.

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      1. Diekman was consitently in the mid to upper 90s in the AFL. That’s a bit more then touching 94. Savery was hovering around 90-91 in his short stint with the Phils.

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        1. And therein lies the difference. A sidewinder lefty who throws in the mid to upper 90s is a potentially lights out pitcher. The guy gave up like one hit the AFL, a notorious hitters league – it was amazing. By contrast, Savery projects to be a middle reliever right now.

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      2. Diekman’s advantage of Savery is that he’s a lethal LOOGY. Lefties can’t touch him. Savery on the other hand doesn’t have much of a platoon advantage and his stuff may not play at the MLB level altogether. It’s easier to fix control/deal with a J.C. Romero quality reliever than improve stuff.

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      3. The players in the AFL said that facing Diekman reminded them of John Kruk facing Randy Johnson in the All-Star Game — bailing on every pitch. against that wicked upper nineties side-arm delivery. Diekman is not far away at all from becoming a major leaguer.

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  8. Went with Gardner, but I would like to see Harold Martinez and Adam Morgan on the list as well as Manzanillo. It’s hard for me to see Cody Asche and Matt Rizotti in the top 30

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        1. Mitchell should perform pretty well in AA, at this point. He’s been in the minor leagues for 7 years now.

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  9. I would be fine with Perci Garner as the choice here. Big arm ptcher with upside. I have a hard time putting him ahead of JC Ramirez, who has the same kind of scouting reports, but has played 3 levels higher.
    I look at JC Ramirez vs Perci Garner the same way some viewed Freddy Gavis vs Cesar Hernandez, last year. JC Ramirez has been pitching in AA as a full-time starter, while Garner has been pitching in short season as a reliever. They are only one (1) year apart in age. I am not sure Garner could perform any better than JC Ramirez, if he was required to do what Ramirez has been required to do. Therefore I’ll write in JC Ramirez again.

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    1. This is an interesting way to think about it. A little unfair to Garner though, as JC has 5 years of professional pitching experience whereas Garner has not pitched as much because he focused on football in college.

      Also, Garner is a starter, not a reliever. He was injured to begin the season and worked his way into shape out of the bullpen. By the end of the year he was starting.

      But you make a good point – same age, similar stuff (approximately) – why should we rate the unknown higher than the known? I suppose it is because he has proven himself to be just average, despite good stuff. I went with Garner here.

      Another good argument is Hyatt vs. Garner. If Garner progresses one level per year, he will be exactly where Hyatt is. Can we expect Garner to perform as well as Hyatt already has?

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      1. I don’t think Hyatt vs Garner is a similar argument. Hyatt doesn’t have the arm that Ramirez or Garner has. Hyatt is a finesse, flyball pitcher. He doesn’t have upside.
        Ramirez and Garner, based on their fastball velocity and developing breaking balls, could both be big, late inning, relievers in the mold of Soriano.

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        1. Didn’t say it was similar, said it was good. Perhaps “interesting” is what I meant. Two different kinds of prospects, on the same age curve, one who has strong results and is close to the majors, one who has better stuff but is far far away from the majors. Very hard to choose between the two in my mind. Higher ceiling vs. strong track record.

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        2. Not sure where you get that Hyatt is a finesse pitcher? Based on what I have read, his FB sits in the low 90’s, touching 94 and his K-rate doesn’t indicate a finesse guy.

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    2. But Ramirez hasn’t played well 3 levels higher. His strikeout rates simply don’t portend success. I think you see a move to the pen in the near future. I’d have Garner over JC simply because Garner hasn’t shown what he can’t do yet (except stay healthy, perhaps)

      I’ve got Hyatt here by a wide margin, though it seems as we get on that proximity is being totally discounted. And for anyone voting Schwimer or Savory, they are the same age but project as middle relievers… How can you vote them higher than someone striking out 10 per 9 in AA as a starter??? inexplicable

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      1. I agree that Hyatt should be higher than Schwimer and Savery, but I have both Garner and Ramirez higher than Hyatt. Ramirez’s K/9 was terrible last year, for whatever reason, but it hasn’t been bad the rest of his career. I would assume it was that “pitch to contact” mandate placed on him earlier in the year. As the year went on, his K rate improved.

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  10. I vote Ervis Manzanillo here. I think there are some bigger potential types that can go in ahead of some of the already vested players already voted in. Since there are only 7 spots left and more than 7 voted on to the list, if they continue with this, don’t see alot to get excited about for the remainder.

    Manzanillo, LHP, only slightly older than Biddle ,think it was a month and a half older last time I looked, said to have good stuff, seen him in NYPL looks like a good build, BA likes him some I guess, and I believe he would already be on their list at this point. You can look into it.

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  12. It just goes to show you. The organization is like a pyramid with a mostly flat top. The Phils have a few guys standing on the flat top with no one on the absoute pinacle and as you descend down the pyramid the group of guys at each level expands dramatically. A few years ago, we’d be hunting for the last 3 – 5 guys in the top 30. Now we have 10 to 15 guys you could slot in the 23 – 30 spots. They all have blemishes and potential. Some guys are close to being on the Major League roster but are not going to contribute in big way. We have guys we only know from what someone else told us. This or that guy is going to be great but he hasn’t played any meaningful games. And there are the guys who look like they’re ready to breakout. The potential is there and they’ve actually shown it once or twice. I might have guys between 25 – 30 on my list that won’t even show up on the voting list. When James asks for people to send their lists to him, he might see 35 to 40 names… maybe more. You gotta like that.

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  13. I often wonder if they (the FO) had to pick 2 of our top 20 who they had to call up and keep on the roster all season who would it be. It has to be 1 pitcher and 1 position player. This is hypothetical of course and would not change the current 25 man in any way.

    A pitcher would be pretty easy but not the position player!

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      2. your voting for a guy who has been nothing but trouble , any one wig Drug charges would be gone in my book, what’s wrong with your head.

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  14. I went with Rupp again because I think he has a chance to be a major league starting catcher. Will he? Who knows but catcher is a premium position and Rupp looks like a player. I understand the appeal of Garner and like him quite a bit too. Garner is the definition of raw. He loved football (QB) and only turned to baseball when he realized he had no shot at an NFL career. He had a great fastball in spring training last year but had no idea where it was going. Walks galore! His breaking ball was actually way ahead of his fastball in terms of control. He was kept in Florida to throw and work on his fastball control and he probably got some tenderness in his arm because he never threw that much before. Garner is a premier athlete type who will move very quickly if he figures out how to pitch. His performance in WSport once he got there was very encouraging. He’s definitely a guy to root for because his upside is huge but he could easily flame out too. JC Ramirez is much farther ahead but I’ve lowered my expectations as to his upside.

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  15. Went with Rupp here because of the promising second half and because of his position. But there’s lots of reasonable choices. I vote JC Ramirez to be added to the poll.

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    1. Yo Chapel Hillian, you a member of Ral-eagles Meetup? They do meet ups in Triangle for all Philly sports. We had a blast last fall in the Phils playoffs, mostly at Tobacco Road next to Durham Bulls Athletic Park. Short-lived, of course, but a lot of fun. Just a heads up. Look for game meetups in 2012. Lots of high-fiving, living and dying on each pitch. Like being there.

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  16. I wrote in Manzanillo. Then I’ll probably go Garner and then Ethan Stewart, unless there’s somebody I’m not thinking of right now. Then sort through the Dugans and the Hudsons. Rupp might not even be in my 30. HeRod’s the one guy I know nothing about.

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  18. I repeated Rupp. Garner was a college draftee and just hasn’t pitched enough since being drafted. The Phillies have seen a lot of talented college pitchers with a ton of damage to their arms from their college work fall by the wayside. The not being able to stay on the field t hing is much more serious for a college pitcher, than for a HS pitcher or a position player of any stripe. It is a big red flag to me.

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    2. Garner did not pitch very much in college and has little wear and tear on his arm. His injuries were more related to getting his body adjusted to being a pitcher and throwing a lot more on a regular basis. He seemed to have it figured out by the end of the year. I look forward to seeing what he can do in Lakewood.

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  19. General Discussion: Jason Stark comments Phillies may be making Joe Blanton available this spring. Anyone hear other scuttlebutt about this?

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    1. With the recent signing of Qualls this might make sense. You might have a BP of Papelpon, Contreras, Bastardo, Qualls, Stutes, Willis, and Kendrick/DeFratus/Herndon. Kendrick would be the choice in the BP unless the move big Joe and he could be the #5 starter. He could also be in the BP if they trade Blanton and have Pinero as the # 5. It seem Ruben is not quite ready to go with the young guys but there are a bunch of guys on 1 yr deals (Contreras, Qualls, and Willis)

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    2. Amaro has been trying to trade him since almost a week after signing him.
      (At 1st to free salary to keep Lee and Doc.)
      The efforts have never really ceased.
      This comment is sort of like saying the Sun will rise.

      The only question is “How Much” of the Salary will the Phillies eat.

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  20. Just for openers, I sure hope Herndon doesn’t make the pen and Qualls takes his place.

    Question: in consideration of questions about Blanton’s recovery from an arm problem that had him miss most of 2011’s season plus his very spotty pitching in the last several years, just who would be willing to take him with a several million $alary for 2012?? And, just what could we get back…aside from a salary dump?

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    1. Braves were able to dump Lowe to Cleveland and save $5M of the $15m they owed.

      I expect the Phillies should be about to save about half of Blanton’s $8.5m. They certianily won’t get anything back in return unless they eat most of the remaining contract.

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      1. Exactly you move him to the first team that is willing to pick up 2/3 to half his salary and don’t look back…

        I like Joe, he’s been a good soldier but he’s a square peg in a round hole at this point.

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