2012 Reader Top 30, #20

2012 Reader Top 30

Cesar Hernandez edged out Austin Wright for #17 and Brian Pointer edged out Mitchell Walding and Carlos Tocci for #19. That means we move on to #20, where Harold Garcia will enter the poll. As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS
12. Larry Greene Jr, OF
13. Jiwan James, OF
14. Tyson Gillies, OF
15. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP
16. Roman Quinn, SS/OF
17. Cesar Hernandez, 2B
18. Austin Wright, LHP
19. Brian Pointer, OF
20.

Check below for #20

94 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #20”

    1. PS think about it this way, would you trade Walding or Tocci for anyone else remaining on this list straight up?

      Like

      1. I agree with this way of thinking and often use it when trying to decide between two or three guys. I wouldn’t trade Tocci for anyone on this list.

        Like

  4. Rupp here. With the way he hit second half last year, I think he’d have been promoted for the last month if not for Valle being right ahead of him. And with a decent month there, we’d be talking about him as a candidate for AA right now. Hard to ding a guy for being stuck behind a guy like Valle.

    Like

  5. I still like Overbeck. Power plays. Struggled but adjusted at LHV. Nearly a .900 OPS in Arizona Fall League.

    Like

    1. But I’m not sure he’s a 3B any more. He’s 1B/DH for a while now, so I don’t think he’s much of a prospect. His fielding was adequate for AAA 1B but not great. I like watching him, though…

      Like

    2. If Overbeck could even learn how to be a slightly below average third baseman, he would have much, much more value. But as a first baseman and spare part in the outfield, he would have to hit a real ton to have value and, so far, his minor league statistics do not suggest he will hit a ton in the big leagues. But I like him and hope I am wrong. I especially like that he seems to have true, light-tower (60 or so) power – that helps his cause.

      Like

  6. Tocci is a long way off, farther off than the 2011 draftee’s. I can understand the case being made for him, but I’m going Walding here.

    Like

  7. I think Lino Martinez should be on this list soon. He played NYP as an 18 year old last year and had some success. The low ERA draws my attention, (like a moth to the flame), though the peripherals are not amazing. I don’t think he’s a top 10 guy or even a top 20 guy, but I had him in the teens for for a while. He’s slowly moved down into the mid 20s with more evaluation of him and others, but for a guy to be moved to a college league at 18 and do fairly well, and he’s a lefty??? Sounds promising to me. In the same group as guys like Altherr and Walding, and def. more exciting to me than Castro, Cloyd, Savery, Schwim and Overbeck.

    Like

    1. I agree that Lino Martinez should be on the list of choices. I have him higher than at least 5 guys currently on the list. I have JC Ramirez higher than all of the pitchers on the list.

      Like

  8. I’m going with Savery here. It seems like the low 20s is the right place to put our low-ceiling bullpen arms who are close to the majors. I mean, would anyone be truly shocked, given the highly unpredictable nature of the bullpen, if Savery and Schwimer were on the Phillies’ postseason roster next year and Aumont and De Fratus weren’t? Yet Aumont and De Fratus are in the top 10–and somewhat overrated there, I think–while Savery and Schwimer are scraping along at the bottom of the field, less fancied than someone like Altherr, who was highly inconsistent in the NYPL last year. (And I say that as someone who voted for Altherr last round! I reserve the right to change my mind and/or stir up discussion.)

    My feeling is, if Aumont is the sixth-best prospect in our organization, then it’s not ridiculous to consider Savery–a left-handed former first round pick who was lighting up the gun at the end of the year–our twentieth best. He may only turn out to be a seventh-inning guy, but the world needs seventh inning guys. His skills have value, and half the guys ahead of him on this list are never going to see significant time in the majors at all.

    Like

    1. Savery’s ceiling is as a fungible 6th-7th inning reliever. I’m not sure that makes my top 30. He could be guaranteed a spot now and I’d still consider him to be an org soldier rather than a prospect.

      Like

      1. I don’t know. As a starting pitcher he was making a living as a mid to low 80’s pitchability lefty. Now I hear late season reports saying he’s a low 90’s reliever. Combine his new found velocity with his known ability to ‘pitch’ and we might have something more than we thought. It’s hard to believe after watching him go nowhere fast for years as a mid-80’s fastball guy, but that added velocity could make him special. I for one will be very interested to hear if Savery’s spring training velocity reports are consistent with those from late last season.

        Like

        1. I can’t say I’ve heard many reports about his pitchability. His numbers certainly don’t bear that out, pitchability guys tend to be good at limiting hits and walks, Savery showed no skill at that until last year.

          The velocity is something to keep an eye on, but even with it, his ceiling is very low.

          Like

  9. I’m voting for Walding again. Has Garcia ever played anything besides 2nd? It will be interesting to see if he can hit like he did before the ACL. If so, he could be a guy the could be an injury replacement at some point this year.

    Like

  10. This should be a pretty polarizing vote – Should a 16 y.o. that hasn’t played in the US be in the top 20? I voted no, but I’m still excited about him. I went with Waldo because of his potential to slide to 3B, where this system has been barren forever.

    Like

    2. I think Walding at 3B is less valuable than Walding at SS. I’m not sure how him sliding him to 3B makes him more interesting/valuable.

      A 16-year-old who got a big bonus (much bigger than the Phils usually do) and played well in a winter league with much older guys should get a pretty high rating. I know there is not much info on him yet, but sometimes you don’t need much to realize he is an interesting prospect. I’m very interested to see how Walding does too, no disrespect to him. I just think Tocci is much much more interesting as a prospect.

      Like

      1. I was giving Walding that credit because he and Greene advance at the same level. I’m excited to see what happens to Tocci, Walding and the whole bunch of them.

        Like

        2. It’s also possible that Walding and Tocci are at the GCL together and Tocci is almost three years younger than Walding. We’ve seen Tocci play with some guys already in the system. They have almost the same bonus. I definitely put Tocci ahead of Walding right now.

          Like

            2. Not sure you want to talk ages anymore when referring to Santo Domingo or DR native players. Read were MLB are going through a review of their ID and age vaidation methods in reference to prospects from the DR.

              Like

  11. I’m going Tocci because is off the charts.
    I think he has the potential to be a true superstar.
    It’s not likely to happen, but I’m getting to the point where I will vote for pure potential.

    That being said, I can very well understand those who would rate every other player on the list above Tocci.

    Like

  12. Wow dead heat but went Walding. But this is what I love. I knew nothing about Tocci before we started this years rankings and now I have someone to watch and hope for.

    As for bullpen arms they don’t rank for me unless they project to be an 8th or 9th inning caliber RP.

    Like

  13. I picked Rupp again. Not that I don’t like Tocci or Walding potential. Philosophically, I think I’m just not willing to put guys high on the list before they’ve even played as pros in the US. I guess I feel their place is on next year’s list and this year I’ll rate the guys where I at least have stats to put beside what the scouts purportedly think.

    Like

    1. Well .. the real problem here isn’t the Pierre signing, but the decision to bury Brown. IMO by far the worst “move” of the off season. If you take as a given that Brown will never have a significant role with the Phillies, the Pierre move – considering it is a minor league deal, and that he is destined for a bench role at best – is fine. It was clear that, given the Howard situation, and the fact that Brown is now a non-person, SOMEONE was going to have to be signed to a minor league contract.

      Like

      1. Appears Ruben will hope to have Brown showcased at LHV with intentions of moving him in a package. The talk that he will ‘challenge’ in the spring for a position on the big club apparently is GM rhetoric.

        Like

        1. It is just like Amaro saying Brown will play the coming full year in AAA before ST started as Amaro was trying to take the spotlight off him. If Brown is playing a MLB worthy Left Field and hitting well in Spring Traing he will up in Philadelphia in 2012. The worst case scenario is he plays a half year in AAA in my thinking.

          Like

      2. How bad a “move” it is depends upon how the Phillies proceed going forward with respect to Brown. It is clear he has great ability and is currently a viable big league player, but he also seems to struggle with confidence and needs an awful lot of work on his fielding. To me, the issue is not Brown’s relative worth compared to other outfield options (although I concede that he may be better than some of those players right now) but how to maximize Brown’s ability as a left fielder as quickly as possible. I think a whole year in the minors is a waste, but I cannot necessarily say that two or three months in the minors is a bad idea. Sometimes really good players don’t take that last step forward until they get that final refresher in the minors. What annoys me most, however is the talk that trading Brown is inevitable. Given Amaro’s history I cannot dismiss that talk.

        Like

        1. There couldn’t be a worse fit than here for Pierre. He hates walls and proximity of other players. He tends to stop dead at the first sound of danger. He also eats up ABs.

          Like

      3. Pierre could be an asset. The Phillies needed a fifth outfielder. I had Scott Podsednik pegged for the role previously. Someone who can cover center, pinch run, etc.

        WIth Brown, I think the intent is to give him consistent at bats and make him win the job. Hopefully.

        Like

      4. Brown’s defense is not major league quality and he has enough development to do with the bat that he should still benefit from a full season in the minors. The Phillies are trying to remove the temptation to yo-yo him around again, they aren’t burying him. If he truly breaks out, do you think a Mayberry/Nix platoon is actually blocking him?

        Like

  15. Does anybody see the Phils putting a waiver claim in on Adrian Cardenas? His numbers have been solid, he’s 24 and could be a better hitting Valdez.

    Like

    1. Phils have last waiver claim on Cardenas. I will be surprised if he makes it that long. Speaking of ex-Phil’s being treated unkindly by the A’s, have you seen how many mediocre OF’s the A’s have brought in? Looks like they don’t believe Michael Taylor is ready. Interesting in that the Philly press had Taylor ready to start in ’09.

      Like

      1. Taylor hasnt really done much to make them believers either.

        If Cardenas actually fell to the Phillies, they’d be idiots to not make a claim. Sure his defense is terrible but his bat is MLB caliber. He could be a Greg Dobbs type player on somebody’s bench.

        Like

          1. While not a speedster–he was faster than Dobbs when both were here. He is way more an athlete than is oft portrayed. Would be nice to have him back.

            Like

      3. When the A’s are doing screwing Taylor up I’d like to see the Phil’s take a flier on him. Our development guys did a great job bringing him up after a subpar trip through college. Maybe we can work our magic again?

        Like

    2. He will probably be traded. The DFA’d was Oakland’s signal for other teams to start making bids. The Phils could trade for him. It would be a good fit.

      Like

    2. Greene is a good fielder. But he needs quite a bit of work hitting. He strikes out too much. Hopefully he has been working on the hitting in the off season.

      Like

      1. He only played 17 games in the organization… its a bit early to declare that “he strikes out too much.” Don’t forget many players do K at a higher rate when they first reach a new level and then as they adjust that rate drops.

        Also don’t forget that while it was only 58 ABs he did post a .386 OBP so needing “quite a bit of work hitting” is not really a fair statement as he appeared to show quite a bit of promise during his limited stint.

        Like

        1. So he showed promise in 58 ABs but we should ignore the strikeout numbers? Can’t have it both ways.

          Like

          1. Thats exactly my point. Its way too soon to make any declarative statements based off 58 ABs and I can just as easily justify a positive response to his short stint as he can a negative one. Doesn’t make it any more right to project that as an absolute truth about his game because it is not.

            Like

  18. I went with Walding again. To all the guys on here who scoff at putting guys just signed or drafted in our top 10 “until they see something”, take a look at the top 50 overall list and count the number of guys that were just drafted last year. Some guys are just talented and their abilities will play just fine once they start playing. Let’s hope that Greene Jr, Quinn, Greene, Walding, Tocci, Wright, Morgam and Giles gives us the improvement this year that we hope for.
    To the guys upset that MiniMart looks like he’s won a job, let’s not forget Fransden. He’ll be at major league camp and it wouldn’t surprise me if he outplays MiniMart, who has options remaining.

    Like

    1. Personally, I have our guys Larry Greene, Tyler Greene, Walding, Quinn, etc in my top 15. I value upside more than stats so I’m with you.

      Like

  19. In another bit of unrelated news it appears that Raul Ibanez will probably sign somewhere and thereby generate a true gift draft pick for the Phillies. He really had their backs on that one and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Raul ends up back in the organization once his playing days are over. What a good guy.

    Like

    1. Neris is someone to keep an eye on. A little older for his levels but his peripherals stand out in a crowd. Nice name drop Carlos

      Like

    2. Thanks for naming Neris. I followed him last year and he was very effective. I went with Rupp again given my instinct that he will have a fine year. I also like Buchanan. Talk about a guy who gets no respect. He simply pitches well and had the moxie to overcome his problems mid-year last year.

      Like

  21. Though doubters have a good case based on his pre-2011 work, Savery should be included now or soon…along with Rupp IMO, because he is likely to be called up some time in ’12 because he looks like the only lefty reliever close enough to the show to fill in if Bastardo or Willis falters in that role. Proximity rules.

    His AAA relief work shows a guy who COULD add value to the pen. Rupp for all the reasons to be given for a seeming better defensive catcher who may be on the cusp of providing decent offense, too. Nobody else is in the system–other than Valle–offers that.

    Like

  22. This is looking nothing like my top 30, which is what I love about these polls. It’s kind of making it a little difficult to vote for guys I have higher because there’s guys on the poll I’d slot at #20 while there’s a bunch of guys left I have higher.

    Like

    1. I watched video of Horst, the new reliever the Phillies obtained for Wilson Valdez and looked at his numbers and, really, he is roughly interchangeable with Savery. Savery might throw a little harder, but Horst appears to have better breaking pitches. To be frank, neither guy is likely to amount to anything more than an average 6th or 7th inning situational guy or mop up man. So, are they prospects and should they be ranked? I guess it depends how you define and view a prospect. If you are trying to list every guy who will play in the majors, then, by all means, Savery and Horst should be somewhere between 15-25 because, they have played in the majors and are likely to continue to play in the majors whereas many of the prospects on the list will fizzle out and not have any major league career of note. But if you are trying to project players who are likely to make a difference, which is how I view these lists, then Savery and Horst are kind of boring and fall off the the top 30 or should be at the very end of the list.

      All of that having been said, and unrelated to the topic of ranking Savery, I have gone back and looked at our old lists and think we, as a group, have undervalued middle level starting pitching prospects (e.g. Worley and Happ, a player who still has very good stuff and should have a nice comeback year next year) and positional prospects who have struggled a bit (in retrospect, Mayberry should have made our list last year and the year before, even if it was the back end of the list). Often, a Vance Worley in the hand is worth more than a Brody Colvin in the bush. With that said, I bet, in retrospect, we will say that we undervalued Julio Rodriguez.

      Like

  23. The momentum of the Savery and Schwimer support is one of the more interesting things about this poll to me. They’ve both been on the ballot since the #6 spot, but haven’t been close to being voted to the list. About 6 guys who weren’t even on the ballot at #10, have been voted on ahead of them.
    How is it that over 30 people thought Savery was the 9th best prospect in the system, but only 27 thought he was good enough to be the 19th best prospect?
    Sorry for the diversion. Carry on.

    Like

    1. I didn’t vote for either of those guys then, and I did vote for Savery this time. One possibility is that some of the less hardcore prospect followers have fallen by the wayside as the exercise goes on, as the focus has shifted to guys they may never have heard of.

      Like

  24. Question on Tocci, what kind of time frame is he on to be state side? I know he is many many years from the show. But what are the chances he gets to America at some point at the end of summer or start next season in instructionals in the states?

    Like

    1. Tocci already played Instructionals in Florida, back in September, 2011. The Greenes, Quinn, Walding and Jonathan Knight also attended.
      As far as timetable to play in GCL, I’d say it is a pretty safe bet that he will play there this year. Every Latin bonus baby since 2007, that I can remember, went directly to GCL their first year. Everybody that signed for more than 100k (Franco, Santana, Nunez, Lino Martinez) played the next season in GCL. Tocci signed for 3x as much each of those guys, and has already been to Florida, I don’t see why he would suddenly be the 1st bonus baby to be left in Venezuela.

      Like

      1. Nice, thanks for the response. That is good to hear, he’s got to be in the top twenty them. I though he was still a year or two out from coming here.

        Like

      2. Thanks for the info, VOR. That is pretty exciting news about Tocci. FYI, I think he spells it Johnathan. Please correct me if I’m wrong.

        Like

      3. It will be good to see these players for the first time in professional games. From our choices favoring people we have not seen, I am guessing that those we have seen (Garcia, Castro, Rupp, Garner, Hyatt, etc.) do not impress us as prospects. The weak system notion plays well on this site.

        Like

  25. If Greene, Greene, Quinn, Pointer, Tocci, and Walding all end up true top 25 guys in the system that should do wonders for the organization this year. Does Pointer get a shot a Lakewood this year? I figure they will have Altherr and Hudson as definates. Then you have Dugan who can play OF and 1B and possibly Eldemire if he is ever healthy.

    Like

    2. It will be an interesting spring, I imagine 1 of those guys will have to start in Clearwater since Collier wont be available the first 50 games. Eldemire is the oldest of the bunch but not sure if the Phillies want to do that since he hasn’t played competitive for almost 2 years.

      Like

      1. You might see Leandro Castro play the first 50 games down in Clearwater and the when Collier comes back and hopefully Castro is ready you move him up to Reading. Clearwater should have Hewitt, Alvarez, I’m thinking Lavin might get a good shot(He played well last year and with his age) and Bill Rice as well. Yeah maybe one of the names from Lakewood goes to Clearwater and gets a shot.

        Like

        1. Exactly what I was thinking. Even with Leandro, this OF won’t scare many pitchers. Also Gillies and James have to be split up so they can play CF so that mean Gillies has AAA and James AA. James could be held back, but if he is, he’d have to be lower on the top 30. I think James has to be pushed. Let’s find out what he has. Is he a speed and defense guy only? That makes him Golson or Q Berry. If he’s more than that then he’s top 10 and maybe Michael Bourne. Gillies has to show something quickly. Personally, I have Gillies far lower in my top 30. It’s hard to lose 2 years and wow everyone. It was very early in James career when he lost playing time. It might be easier for him to recover. Maybe Kyrell Hudson will have a breakout year?

          Like

          1. The question is how does James face adversity. So far I am not impressed but I could be.
            This team is desperate for speed. I would play Pierre all over the outfield. Maybe he can improve his ragged defense.

            Like

          2. I don’t think James needs to be pushed. This year if he has a good year he’ll get added to the 40 man roster. Then three option years before the Phillies have to keep him in the majors. Four seasons left of development. I wouldn’t look at Michael Bourn though. Franklin Gutierrez is a better comp for the player James can be.

            Like

            1. Neither Franklin Gutierrez or Michael Bourne are good comps for Jiwan James. Gutierrez showed infinite more power than James in the minors. He even showed his power at 19-20, whereas James hasn’t shown any at 21-22, in the same levels. I agree Bourne is worse as a comp, because Bourne had + patience, and James isn’t that type of hitter.
              It’s hard to find a comp for James, because there aren’t many successful major leaguers with little patience and no power

              Like

  28. I voted for Tocci and am really excited at such a young player doing well against older talent, but does anyone know if the newer latin prospects are going through a more rigorous background check ahead of signing deals? I’d be highly disappointed if Tocci pulled a Carmona and is older than 16.

    Like

    1. DR prospects apparently are the focus of the investigations being conducted by MLB. The other Latin countires, Mexico, Panama, Venezuela, et al, have more stringent controls in place and give due diligence in exercising them. Concerning Cuba…not sure.

      Like

  29. CSN has a list on their site….from BA Prospect list…some suprises…They like Quinn at 11, Bonilla at 12, Tocci at 13, Altherr at 15, Manzanillo at 16. No Tyler Greene or Brian Ponter

    Like

    1. I would have Quinn and Tocci lower only because we haven’t seen them yet otherwise its a solid Top 30 much more reasonable then what we have here.

      Like

    2. That list seems to give the African American and Latin players a little more credit as being legitimate prospects than our fan list. A little less biased maybe.

      Like

    3. I have the BA Handbook myself. Manzanillo I disagree with. A 93 mph heater is nice and all, but without refined control I’d rather take one of the position players. Tyler Greene is 3rd on their SS depth chart for the organization. They placed Brian Pointer behind Gillies but ahead of Gauntlett Eldemire in CF. Jake Diekman was #31.

      The Phillies placed #27 in their organizational rankings. The publication cited talent but almost all high risk (fair criticism).

      Jason Knapp didn’t make the Indians’ Top 30. Considering their organization ranked 29th, that’s not a good sign.

      Like

  30. I think it is really cool we have infield prospects on the list in general. I have been watching this site for years this is the first time we have “talent” in those positions. I for one am excited.
    All the specific positions on the list be damned – I do understand this exercise, and follow it closely, I am just pumped we have talent in practically every position. Maybe not blue-chip talent, but hope nevertheless.

    Like

  31. James, can we please have a poll on the thumbs? My vote is ‘no’ because you can’t use the recent comments links, as the thumbs push your selection down the screen.

    Like

Comments are closed.