2012 Reader Top 30, #17, 18 and 19

Austin Wright and Cesar Hernandez finished within 2 votes of each other, and because of this, we’ll do a run-off vote. The winner will be #17, the runner up will be #18, and I’m also going to attach the poll for #19 here as well. Cody Overbeck and Tyler Cloyd will enter the ballot for #19. As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS
12. Larry Greene Jr, OF
13. Jiwan James, OF
14. Tyson Gillies, OF
15. Lisalberto Bonilla, RHP
16. Roman Quinn, SS/OF

Check below for the polls

86 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #17, 18 and 19

  1. Wright, then Rupp. Then Pointer. He’s my 18, with Quinn and Cesar just below him. I have Tocci way down on the list, just because I can’t fathom how to evaluate a 16 year old form another country versus a bunch of guys who’ve played stateside.

    1. This winter Tocci outplayed some guys who have played stateside for the Phils. I have high hopes for him and voted for him here.

      1. Yeah, I’ve seen that. I get that he’s a prospect, especially playing with or at a skill level above many U.S. pros at 16, (albeit for a small sample), but it’s just hard to judge.

        1. To clarify- he wasn’t playing in the Venezuelan Winter League- he was playing in the equivalent of the Venezuelan development league.

          1. Yeah, but many other Phillies farmhands played in the same league. He out-hit ALL of the (phillies)guys who played in the GCL and out-hit Edgar Duran, who was the starting SS at Lakewood this past year. No matter how soft the league was, the fact that he outperformed experienced players means something.

    1. I have a feeling that the Phillies aren’t very keen on giving him a shot, which was the biggest reason I didn’t vote for him here. He’s starting to run out of time.

    2. Me too. Hyatt deserves to be in this spot. He has done all that the Phillies have asked and was very good in getting more control and command of his off-speed pitches. He will probably be a spot starter this year as injuries occur. His change is major league and his fast ball is fast enough to set it up. I am rooting for him.

      1. Wonder if anyone can comment on whether his 3rd pitch has been improved over the last couple years. It’s a curve, right? Wonder if it’s improving year to year.

  2. went with Pointer… but gotta start considering JC Ram at this point too. He had a down year in AA, but everything i said was that he wasnt fully recovered from his hip injury and has confidence problems. Both of those are completely fixable and he still has some of the best stuff in our system.

  3. Went with Altherr here. He was my pick for next year’s “sleeper” prospect, based on the fact that he’s fallen down a lot of lists but still seems to have some nice raw tools. He hit two very impressive home runs in the one Williamsport game I saw last season, which while not evidence of anything, does make me root for him sentimentally. I gave some thought to Tocci, but at 16, it seems like we’ll have many, many years to evaluate him before deciding whether he belongs among our Top 30 prospects.

    1. I think I was the vote that tied it up at 70/70… can’t speak for anybody but myself but I prefer Hernandez.

    2. I don’t think so – what about the people who contribute to this site makes you think they are looking to agree with one another? Nope – I think the support really is split down the middle.

    3. My Wright vote made it 105-102 Wright.

      This one is a close call. Also, I may be pretty dumb, but isn’t it a lot of work to game the system for a tie?

      1. I just made it 165 to 165, and I swear I didn’t peak first – I have these guys right next to each other on my list….guess a lot of other folks do too…Wright by a hair due to left handedness.

    1. Maybe he can join up with the Rizz and Mathieson to start their own band. With the glowing support those 3 have had on this site over the last few years, they would clean up.

      1. While I do think those guys get overhyped here, Adrian could be a solid depth pick up to play 2nd or 3rd base for the Iron Pigs.

    2. I can’t imagine he’ll make it all the way to the Phillies. There has to be another team with a worse 2012 record who has space on the 40-man to take a flier on a cheap middle infield prospect like Cardenas.

    1. He’s a difficult fit in a line-up. Doesn’t have enough speed to hit lead-off and has absolutely no power, not even gap power. He also can’t play SS so he’s not a good option as a utility IF.

      Being a decent singles hitter who doesn’t steal bases doesn’t win many jobs in the major leagues unless you play a premium defensive position like SS or C.

        1. Yes, it does sound like the 36 year-old version of Polanco. But then Polanco is also a GG caliber defensive player at both 2b and 3b. Not sure Cardenas plays defense at that level.

            1. Well, that’s basically true. Remember, a big reason we got rid of him in that trade was he was a terrible 2B defensively and didnt have the bat for 3B.

  4. Back and forth Wright and Hernandez go. We might need a coin flip to decide this one. Pointer and Tocci are looking like they might have the width of a piece of paper separating them. I was also looking ahead for left-handed starters who I’ll slot in the 20’s. After Wright and Biddle’s already off the board, Captain Adam Morgan and Garden of Ethan Stewart are left (no pun intended). Looking at the RH starters still out there: J.C. Ramirez, Josh Warner, Jonathan Musser and Mike Nesseth are still out there. I was surprised that Nesseth was already 23 years old. I can’t put him in the top 30 especially since I have a bunch of guys I won’t find slots for now. Warner and Musser might get some votes but they look like they’ll be on the outside looking in.

  5. Remember how much we all liked Kevin Walter and Eldemere a year ago??? They’re both forgotten guys now. It would be pretty cool if the Phils could reacquire Cardenas. He can’t play SS and has no HR power but he can certainly hit for average and he can play 2B, 3B and LF, like harold Garcia. I’m voting for Walding for awhile it looks like…

  6. I went with Austin Wright in the tie-breaker. I have no issue if Cesar Hernandez wins but I have him several spots lower.

    Next I voted for Mitch Walding at 19 but when I checked my list I actually had Carlos Tocci one slot higher. For me it was a toss-up but when I voted I imagined them standing side-by-side: Tocci at 6’2″, 150 pounds next to Walding at 6’3″, 190 pounds and I guess I just couldn’t vote for the beanpole. I realize that’s not too sophisticated since they’ll both fill out some but there you have it.

  7. Voting for Wright at #17 again, and I guess i’ll go with Brian Pointer at #19 even though a lot of these guy’s are becoming pretty interchangeable to me at this point. That’s the hard part about trying to fill out the lower half of a prospect list when so many of the players have yet to really establish themselves in the system.

  8. For the next spot I took Leandro Castro. I think we’re in another tier of prospects right now and all these guys are either very far away or have serious flaws. I considered Rupp but he’s going to be 24 later this year. Considered Pointer but even he was a little on the older side for the GCL. Castro doesn’t get on base but he showed good power in a league and park that often supresses it. If he’s healthy in AA he’ll either really struggle with strikeouts or put up big HR totals.

  9. Hyatt–throws hard, good change, has always had success and strong peripherals. I think he doesn’t get the respect he deserves in prospect lists, and I’m not sure why.

    1. He ‘can’ throw hard- so that’s a little misleading. He’s good at bumping his velocity, but most start’s I’ve seen he spends more time at 87-90 mph.

  10. Cardenas would be interesting I guess. The A’s have 10 days (I think) to trade him, and if they can’t work out a trade, he goes on waivers. Then its worst to first based on 2011 reg season records in the AL, then worst to first in the NL in terms of determining the waiver order.

      1. Playing multiple positions doesn’t mean he can play them well. On top of that, the A’s have Scott Sizemore, Jemile Weeks and Eric Sogard on their roster. Three players who can play 2B/3B and actually outperformed Cardenas in the minors. So Cardenas is a bit superfluous there. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Astros put in a claim if the A’s don’t make a claim.

    1. He’s worth trading for. I realize he’s not a slick fielder and could easily end up being a throw-away player. But he’s still young, has speed, can play a number of different positions and has really improved his hitting in AAA. He’s worth a gamble if you ask me, particularly since we are light on young middle infielders at the upper levels. We have a glut of relief pitching prospects – Cardenas would easily be worth a Herndon or a Mike Schwimer (sorry Mike, I’m a big fan, but business is business).

      1. Wow, do I disagree with this. Trading either of two guys who have a chance to be contributing, even solid relievers for a guy who may never see the majors at all? The classic tweener who does nothing but hit some singles for average? That’s nowhere near enough.

      2. They would have to trade someone who is not on the 40 man. Oakland doesn’t have room for Herndon. Isnt Schwimer on the 40 man, too?

        1. Yes, both of them are. Not sure why the Phillies would trade any type of prospect for a guy who was just DFA’d ???

  11. Is there now any doubt that the Phillies won the Joe Blanton trade, or are there still holdouts?

      1. Why? Blanton won us a WS in 2008. Cardenas could be a GG AS 2B right now for the As and we still “won” that trade. The fact that they dumped Cardenas for nothing, tossed Spencer as a piece in another trade and just traded Outman after he missed 1.5 years to TJ and I think we easily “won” that deal and then some.

        1. No, Blanton was on the team that won a WS. He helped, but it’s not like he did it by himself. I think saying we won the trade because of the title is oversimplifying it. You can say it was worth it, but I think that’s different than saying we won.

          If Cardenas turns out to be a star, then where was the greater value? Not on Blanton’s side. I wouldn’t take the trade back, but it’s still too early to say who won the trade unless you look at it as it was when it happened. The Phils still gave up a lot of value for a decent pitcher who was having a bad year at the time.

          1. I think people underestimate the value Blanton brought to that 2008 team. At the time he was acquired, their starting rotation was struggling with injuries and poor performance.

            Blanton replaced Adam Eaton in the rotation and he consistently gave them solid outings. He wasn’t the reason the team won the WS in 2008 but he was a big part in getting them into the playoffs.

            The trade is easily a win for the Phillies.

    1. They definitly won that trade. While Joe Blanton didn’t set the world on fire down the stretch that last year, he was good enough to help us in 2008 and he had a great year (great for a #3 starter) in 2009. The problem was that awful extension Ruben signed him too. Joe should have been a guy they went year-to-year with.

      1. Soooo Right It wasn’t like other teams were hot to sign him. I guess it is less work to overpay

  12. A lot of support for Tocci. I think it is still too early for someone who is just 16. I think there are other players more deserving. I could be wrong. Does anybody have any links/reports on Tocci that may change my mind?

    1. But Cesar’s immigration comments won over crowd and he now has the lead. Wright had no comeback for that and will have to settle for #18.

      Pointer might just be singing a Steely Dan tune.

  13. I went Tocci, but I can see others putting him lower.
    His performance at 16 is just amazing, despite the sample size.

    For example – Put me down there for 5,000 ABs and chucnk them up into groups of 50, I wager ever sample will suck. Success in a small sample size will confirm potential much more than failure would demonstrate a lack of potential. Mind you, this is potential I reference but the fact he shows it at that age is great.

  14. I love a good hype machine as much as the next guy but evaluating a 16 y/o is a bit of a stretch. So much can go wrong between now and say 21-22. He’s on my radar and I’ll be watching him but until he starts performing at A Ball I’ll reserve judgement.

    I’ll go Pointer then Walding to round this thing out. I don’t think any of these other guys have a case to be in the conversation for Top 20. Hyatt possibly its a shame he’s 25 at this point with no AAA experience.

    1. Until he (Tocci) performs in A ball? Pointer hasn’t performed in A ball and Walding hasn’t played anywhere. Doesn’t make sense.

      1. Sure it does. They are older both more physically developed than Tocci. My point is not that Tocci won’t end up being a better pro but here is a fact and you can’t escape it.

        In 3 years time Tocci will be 19 and Pointer/Walding will be 22. You’re acting as if Tocci could be ready for the MLB in a year or two and my opinion is that is less likely to be the case. It just doesn’t happen that 18/19 y/o are starting their careers in the Bigs at that age.

      2. I would like to know who is doing the voting. some guys on the list like Tyson Gillies have not played well at all due to sickness or just bad playing, but he is listed 14. Tyson is 23

  15. It’s interesting that Cesar Hernandez is finishing higher in the poll this year, than he did last year. He had a terrific season in ’10, but needed heated arguments from supporters to get him into the top 20. He had a bad season this year, and he eases into the top 20. Strange.

  16. weak system and people recognizing that he couldn’t duplicate that season when he was double jumped. A- to A+ is a huge jump as well as the bump to reading if he gets the bump that is. I believe he earned it with his second half performance. It wasn’t great but good enough to move up.

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