2012 Reader Top 30, #14

2012 Reader Top 30

Jiwan James easily glides in to the 13th spot ahead of Tyson Gillies and Lisalberto Bonilla. Five different prospects each received a write-in vote, but I’ll add Cameron Rupp this round, since he previously got a bit of support. As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS
12. Larry Greene Jr, OF
13. Jiwan James, OF

Check below for #14

133 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #14”

  1. Bonilla again, if we knew Gillies is healthy I’ve have voted for him long ago, but until he proves it, he’s a non-prospect in my eyes.

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    1. Agreed with the first half.

      Gillies is coming up on my list though. There’s about 5 youngsters and Gillies coming up who I don’t know how to place in a meaningful order.

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    2. Totally agree with you except for the last part. He’s still a prospect just really far down the list. I have him at 29.

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    3. I think he played enough in the AFL to show that he’s healthy. Whether he can stay healthy and perform is still potentially debateable. But since he is currently healthy and has already done more then most of the guys we’re dealing with at this point, I think he slots this range somewhere.

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    1. Wright. Wright was better than Bonilla at the same level last year (albeit in a small sample) and is only 9 months older.

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      1. I have Wright ever so slightly ahead of Bonilla, but I switched my vote this round because Wright’s not getting any support. I think both guys will be significantly higher on this poll next year.

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  3. The injury thing is absolutely true. A healthy Gillies, performing as he showed himself capable before he was injured, is a whole lot higher up this list – actually pushing some of these already assigned guys down. But it’s hard to vote at all for someone who’s been out for so long.

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  4. Voted Gillies again. His biggest unknown is his health while most of the other options biggest unknown is their performance based on little or no history. I’ll go with the known talent & performance.

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    2. I was very excited about Tyson Gillies 2 years ago, at this time, but he hasn’t played. There is no guarantee he will come back as the same level player as he was then.
      Even if he does, what has he proved except having the ability to hit singles in A ball in 2009? Its 2012, and thats all we got.
      I will admit however, that if he has a good season, I will not be surprised. If he did that, THEN he should probably be ranked in the top 5-7, IMO.

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      1. Yea, nothing worse that a singles hitter who puts up a .430 OBP and .916 ops in high-a ball. But the point on Gillies isn’t just that year of performance but also based on the overall talent level.

        As far as the constant references that’s he’s been injured for 2 years and hasn’t put up numbers, I would only refer back to the original point that I’m evaluating him based on what he has shown in both performance and ability vs. the other candidates on the list who have only shown talent and scouting reports so far.

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        1. I don’t think it’s fair to say that Bonilla has shown only talent and scouting reports. He had a really nice year in A-ball, only 1 level below Gillies’ highest level of success. When the injury thing is factored in, and Bonilla being a year and a half younger, well for me Bonilla is clearly ahead. Wright is ahead to me as well, but the argument can be made that his sample size is too small right now.

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          1. Wasn’t referring to Bonilla specifically but rather the picking of the Greenes and the calls for guys like Quinn, Tocci, etc. I have no issues with Bonilla being mentioned at this point although his numbers in low a ball were a bit pedestrian to me for a 21-year old in his 3rd professional season.

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            1. I agree on the guys who have yet to get any time in pro ball- the Greenes and Tocci, etc.

              I admit that Bonilla’s numbers aren’t eye popping, but I do see that he was right at 9 K/IP until the last month of the season, so I think it’s possible he just wore down a bit as a young pitcher. Couple that with the scouting reports and the reports that the Phillies were asking him not to use his best pitch- the changeup- very much and I think the overall package is impressive.

              In summary, he still limited walks, got a lot of groundballs and had a good K-rate that likely would have been better if he’d been allowed to use his changeup more.

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            2. I agree that the reports on Bonilla are more optimistic than are the actual numbers which is why I have no issues with him getting votes at this stage. I just have 1-2 guys ahead of him still.

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          1. what was the average OPS? I would be more skeptical of his numbers in the desert if they were based on his hitting 25-30 hrs. The fact that he put up the on-base numbers without exceptional power numbers leads me to believe that his performance is more likely to be repeated elsewhere.

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            2. Yes but Gillies OPS was mostly driven by his ability to get on-base. Not sure how a change in location drastically changes that.

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            3. It was driven by triples…and his team hit something like 80 triples that year. He had a .486 SLG percentage…something that he hasnt come close to anywhere else.

              Add in that he’s been hurt for 2 years and I would have him any higher than mid-20s.

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            4. It was hardly driven by his 14 triples. Make his triples outs and his OBP would have still been over .400.

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            6. Unless the pitchers as the pitchers as a whole were aware of the thin air lending power
              to average contacts. Stats do lie

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    3. Albert Cartwright had a very nice 2010 season in the California League with a high OPS and a high OBP, but he doesn’t even crack the top 30. IMO, Gillies’ performances way back in ’08 and ’09 should be discounted heavily like junk bonds unless and until he can give us an updated record at Reading and LHV that shows he’s still a good prospect.

      If I’m not mistaken, before Gillies was traded to the Phillies and Benny Looper started singing his praises, but after Gillies’ seasons at Everett and High Desert, Gillies was not that highly regarded by BA, John Sickels, etc.

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      1. Derek, it meaningless picking a player and saying his numbers were similar but he didn’t crack someone’s top 30. The Rizz has more impressive numbers in AA ball 2 years ago and I was constantly arguing that he didn’t deserve to be highly ranked based on his tools.

        My point on Gillies has always been that he has the the same relative skill set (speed, good defensive CF) as Jiwan James and he put up good numbers in high-A ball.

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        1. 3up – I guess you haven’t heard that there’s a two-year expiration date for old baseball records and a two-year spoilage date for inactive, green ballplayers.

          In Gillies, what we have at the moment is a tools guy, a 23-year-old tools guy who hasn’t done a lick above A ball. Gillies’ wheels are his main tool, and those are faulty. On top of that, the guy is deaf. That may be just a small problem, but it certainly is not a good thing.

          Gillies is just an older defective tools guy.

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  5. Pointer is my guy once again. I’m hoping he gets jumped to Lakewood and puts up similar numbers in the GCL, then everyone will say, “that Jeff was right to rank him so highly.” They may also say something about blind squirrels and acorns since every other bandwagon I’ve driven has gotten the same results as the Crosscutters bus back in early August

    – Jeff

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  6. I went bonilla here…should savery schwimmer and rosenberg even be choices this early? Sure they may all make it to bigs at some point but none of them look like a potential stud closer…just making it to the majors should not make you a bigger prospect than someone in lower minors who still has a chance at being a everyday player or starter.

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  7. I went with Wright, but think Bonilla is a good choice here as well.
    f Rosenberg is a choice, Hyatt should be a choice.

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    1. I’d say if Rosenberg is a choice, then the poll should include 50 names, because there are 50 prospects better than Rosenberg.

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  8. I really like Austin Wright for the top 15, then it’s more of a toss-up for me. Wright could easily find his way to Reading by mid-year, provided he pitches well of course. He probably should have been expected to dominate at A- and A last season, but I think there’s much to be excited about here anyway. I’m looking for him to start strong in Clearwater this year.

    I agree with most voters with Gillies and Bonilla coming up, but Wright takes my #14 slot

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  9. Would like to see Hyatt added in the next few rounds. If he performs at LHV as he has in past seasons, he becomes a legit back of the rotation prospect.

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    1. I will vote for Hyatt next (I’ve been voting Gillies). Hyatt has a great change-up, the best in the system according to Baseball America, was an All-Star in Reading, and then improved by allowing less homers after the all-star break

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    2. Hyatt probably deserves to be on the list by now. I have him and JC Ramirez in my top 25. I actually believe Hyatt and JC Ramirez would be regarded just as highly as DeFratus, if they were used as relievers. That is what both will likely become for the major league team. Ultimately, they will be ranked too low on this list, while DeFratus continues to be over-rated.

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  10. Bonilla again. His numbers at Lakewood are excellent, including a superb ground-to-fly ratio. I hope Gillies is healthy, but how can you rate him this highly after two totally lost seasons? He is closer to be out of baseball than to being a top 15 prospect. I wrote off his first year of injury and had him in my top 10 last season, after top 5 when the trade was made. Extremely small sample size, but prior to his injury during his first season at Reading, he hit not at all. He’ll be close to 30 for me. I do like Pointer. A lot of my tough decisions will be made for me as I keep voting Bonilla, until he wins.

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    1. Absolutely.

      The beauty of the readers list is that it’s almost bias adjusted. What I mean by that is that prospect evaluators (made up a word?) generally weigh a couple major factors upside, median projection, and proximity. These are very tough factors to balance and everyone has a subjective approach to dealing with it.

      However, it also results in a list that seems to have no rhyme or reason. We have a ballot that’s missing some players who could be considered top 10 in our system. We have some players voted up there whose ceiling is so low that they should be late teens to twenties (Thinking J-Rod and DeFratus). We have some other guys who are so far away from the bigs that they need to have elite potential and show some aptitude to garner the consideration that they have (Tyler Greene, whom I voted for – perhaps mistakenly, is an example).

      At the end of the day, we’ve been saying this since pick #1, our system is impossible to ordinally rank with any meaning.

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    2. I disagree, it makes complete sense considering the state of the farm. It’s in such flux and is more projection than actual production that alot of guys are close in voting. Furthermore, the top 10 is pretty much the consensus. Sure Valle could be #1 or Aumont higher and Galvis lower, but the system isn’t as strong as it has been in the past and reflects that in the voting. I also think Hewitt’s lack of production and Collier’s suspension has made many want to see the production and not just read the hype. Roman Quinn could be in the top 10 on many lists , but his lack of votes doesn’t seem out of place simply because the Phills are still developing their talent and the voters have little statistical hardware to back up any argument in placing him any higher. ANd sure a Caesar Hernandez or a Harlod Garcia could have rec’d some votes on here by now, but I don’t see it surprising at all they haven’t.

      Let’s also not forget players who have conflicting scouting reports. Does Julio Rodriguez pitch in the high 80’s or low 90’s??? Depends on who you ask. I actually thought the voting this year would be crazy and It has surprised me some.

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      1. Funny that you mention Roman Quinn lacking votes because of a lack of statistical hardware yet Tyler Greene made the top 15 based on 70 AB’s. I do agree that the list isn’t as surprising as I thought it would be considering how many of our prospects are being ranked purely on projection right now. We also have a number of prospects who have conflicting scouting reports, are performing above what their scouting reports would suggest, or who have failed thus far to reach their potential (JJ and Colvin come to mind). It should be interesting finishing up the top 20, but so far nothing has really surprised me.

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        1. I think it is odd that Quinn has received so little support (or at least obvious commentary) compared to the Greenes.

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            1. But he’s fast! Speed is all that matters!

              Also, what position will he play? Hes worth a lot less in CF than he would be at 2B/SS.

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      2. You guys are probably right and I’m just frustrated. I think I’ll just keep my mouth shut and vote and save all my told you so’s for June.

        What would be really cool is if we all had our own link where we could place our own rankings click a button and then they are locked in. This way if I make some stupid remark you can always call me out and say your that guy that wanted to put Gillies ahead of JJ.

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        2. We did that last year – there was a post where everyone replied with their own top 30.

          I’m curious to hear what you think is most egregious about the list so far. Or do you think it just has no consistency in terms of what particular trait is rated more highly (to Brad’s point)?

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        3. I’m certainly not one to hide my … vocal disagreement … with other posters. But I don’t think it’s a bad list. Even the guys I think are placed too high or low, there are arguments on the other side … JRod could be a lot lower, for example, if you listen to some of the scouts, but if we were going purely by performance he would have been even higher. James sort of the opposite. And those are the two guys IMO most out of place so far. Arguably the 2011 draftees are too high, but there again, on ceiling they arguably could even be higher.

          I just don’t see a huge mistake. In fact, given the system’s state of flux, discussed by others, I think there is pretty high & appropriate degree of consensus.

          I’m curious which ranking you are most peeved about. James I suppose – who else?

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          1. Larry I’m not sure how much you and I agree. I’m sure we disagree some but I always respect everyones opinion. You are correct I’m not thrilled with James and LGJR being ahead of Gillies, Bonillia and Wright. I’m ok with the top 11.

            I’m also not all about “you have to have done something” to get a high ranking. In the end you guys are great you keep me in check and you always get me thinking and researching a guy I may not have thought of before.

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        4. Not sure I really understand why anyone would be frustrated with the list since in the end it is meaningless. I don’t agree with some of the rankings either but I’m also not aggravated by who is ranked where.

          The whole process is an entertaining exercise to pass time during the dead period in the winter and allow fans of the organization to debate the potential merits of players we really know very little about. I enjoy the exercise but don’t take it any more serious than that.

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  12. I went with Gillies. Two main reasons. He has proven he can play at a high level. How quickly he can get back to that level remains to be seen, but his ceiling is as high as anyone’s in the system. We’re talking old school leadoff man with plus defense (maybe not on par with James) potential. Even with the rust showing in the AFL he showed an ability to get on base that exceeds what anyone in the system will do and, most importantly, that he kept his range in the OF.

    Secondly, I can’t bring myself to call him injury prone, and I don’t think he needs to prove he can stay healthy. We’re not talking chronic injuries here. This isn’t Utley with his knees or Reyes with his leg issues the past couple of years. His initial injury was misdiagnosed. The second injury came from stepping on a first baseman’s foot. That could happen to anyone. Those things don’t make you “prone”, it’s more bad luck and in his case bad doctoring than anything else.

    I get that my views on his injury history are not shared by many and I understand that. But I think his potential outweighs any concerns. Unless of course, he steps on someone’s foot again….

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      1. When did his head become an issue? Here I was thinking that it was a leg problem our team docotrs took a year to figure out the cause and a first baseman who apparently doens’t know how to cover the bag correctly. Maybe he subconciously didn’t want the doctors to find the problem, or willed the first baseman to put his foot on the bag so he could step on it?

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  13. Gillies isn’t in my top 20, he’s 2 years older then he was before, has made no progress in those two years, and whos to say he has even half the talent now as he did prior to the injuries. All that and it doesn’t even take into consideration the fact that he may not stay healthy this year either (really bad injury history means more likely to be injured again). To me, Gillies is a sleeper, and to be a sleeper, you have to be towards the bottom of the top 30 (or even out of it).

    I went with Tocci here, mostly based on his sucess against older competition and the 750k bonus. I think if you were to ask the phillies “you can only keep Tocci, Gillies or Bonilla, which do you want” I think they take Tocci, hence why i’m voting for him here.

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    1. I’m coming around on Tocci. I think perhaps he should have already been put on this list. Obviously he is really really young, but his small sample performance was actually better than TG’s in my mind. And the Phils paid him a lot, which they never do. I’m still voting for Wright, but Tocci will be soon thereafter.

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      1. Not sure I’d use that paid him alot angle since the 3 international signing they’ve paid more to were Josue Perez, Seung Lee, and Il Kim.

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        1. You have a long memory, my friend! With these guys running the show, they have kept LatAm bonuses very low, then popped Tocci. A huge break from pattern. That tells me something.

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          1. Point is that paying someone only means that the organization sees something they like. They paid Anthony Hewitt as a 1st round pick and were wrong. Maybe Tocci will turn out to be a win, I just don’t equate $$$ spent to automatic prospect, especially at the age of 16.

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      2. I’m not sure Tocci’s performance in the winter league was ‘better’ than Tyler Greene’s in the GCL, but I belive it is comparable.
        I really can not understand the logic of those who have jumped Tyler Green above LGj and R Quinn based on 70 GCL ABs, but totally dismiss Toccci as a top 20 prospect. I don’t see the difference.

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        1. They should all be grouped together, maybe Tocci at the bottom of the 4 until he gets to the states. I’ve been confused about the Tyler Greene deification by some people as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re the same people who blasted Dom Brown after his 70 MLB AB’s in 2010. Some people are just quick to rush to judgment. That being said TG, LGJ, Quinn, and Tocci should all be top 20 imo, with the order pretty much up in the air.

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            2. Most people are high on Tyler, he has a very intriguing skill set. Some have gone overboard in their praise though, discounting other prospects based solely on those 70 AB’s. I think he will be a very good player, but some people need to let him get on the field and show what he can do for a full season……not just a couple weeks.

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          2. It’s interesting, people are using the small sample size of Dom’s MLB performance to say it was just bad luck and he’s better than that, but also saying Greene’s small sample size is skill, not luck. You can’t have it both ways, either you dismiss small sample sizes (as you should, in my opinion) or you count them.

            If you support Tyler Greene because of his performance and not his upside, then you must also acknowledge that Brown is a “bust.” I am not doubting that Greene is very talented, but I am saying that his time in the minors should not be a reason to vote for him because it is negligible.

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            1. Well, with Dom you have a very large data set of his minor league performance. Also, his major league offense wasn’t bad, it just wasn’t good. For Tyler Greene, that small sample size is the only professional data. GCL just isn’t a good league to base opinions on, because the guys have had no pro instruction yet, a lot of the ABs will be against either Latino players who are just getting adjusted to the States or draftees who have had a layoff due to negotiations. Greene gets a plus compared to the guys who have put up zero stats as a pro.

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        2. Because he is a Better Pro Player! He is a Big Power hitting SS with Speed. The kid could be a 30 – 30 SS. Name a few of those?? Tyler can play his position. We don’t know what position the others play. One can only run, the other they say has Power .. but Scouting Reports say he has a slow bat. What are you talking about?? Quit CRYING and move on. We are at 14 now!

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  15. Still voting for Austin Wright until he get’s picked, although I really like Tyson Gillies if he can have a healthy and successful bounceback season.

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  16. Good Point about Gillies being 2 years older. But I still think he should be in the Top 10.

    Wright – Quinn – Bonilla

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  17. Think I’m going to start voting for Quinn on the “one amazing tool/can stick at a premium position” theory. Bonilla and Wright are tempting, but attrition on young arms is so bad I’ll go with the position player instead.

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  18. Roman Quinn again. Even though he hasn’t played yet, he has elite speed and if he can hit and stick at SS, he can be a Jimmy Rollins type player.

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  19. Bonilla for me here. I agree with those who say that the picks are more or less what one might expect given the flux within the system. It is not an outstanding system, but has some good prospects left. My top ten was the same as that which was chosen. I had players in different places, but the results were the same top ten. From here on it is whoever looks like he has what it takes to get to the majors, which includes both those with potential and those who just go out and do the job.

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  20. You guys have a great weekend. I don’t logon after I leave work I’m done with the internet til Monday. manufacture some votes for Bonillia and Wright for me.

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    1. Go to phillysportscentral.com, they have write-ups on all of the prospect including Garner. His era last year was 1.20 in just over 30 innings.

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  23. Still voting Savery. You’d think a guy who legitimately has a shot at the big league roster would get more respect.

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    1. Joe Savery does not get respect because he is a “dime a dozen” relief arm.
      You can get replacement level talents off the free agent scrap heap every year. Guys like that aren’t top prospects.

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      1. Agree. Savery projects as a run of the mill middle inning reliever. He provides some value in that he can possibly give them some cheap innings but beyond that, he’s just not that great of a prospect.

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    2. Savery was drafted in 2007, he’s 26 and has failed as both a starter and a hitter. He now has exactly one-half of a season pitching effectively as a reliever and we should annoint him a top prospect?

      Listen, I’m rooting for the guy as much as anyone and he seems to be throwing hard enough to compete for a spot on the big team. But even then he would only be pitching in low-leverage situations. That’s all great, but his days as a top prospect are over in my opinion

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  24. Went with Gillies here. Hoping he stays healthy. I’m interested in some of the potential that could be in Lakewood’s outfield this year. They should have Altherr, Hudson,Dugan, Eldemire (if healthy), and maybe Pointer.

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    1. I feel like one of those guys should turn out to be a legit prospect, but I’ll be damned if I know which one. I’m betting on Altherr, personally–am thinking I’ll start writing him in as he get toward the high teens/low 20s on this list. He was my pick for organizational sleeper earlier this offseason. Has a ton of talent and has fallen off a lot of people’s radar screens due to some mediocre numbers last year.

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  25. To talk with ire about the “lousy list” is shortsighted, and possibly the voice of people whose votes were not confirmed by others. This is a fun site; if you want serious go to the political sites. It is unfortunate that some posters just can’t tolerate a difference of opinion about a matter that has no serious consequences and is only a discussion of a game.

    I don’t agree with some others opinions here, but in reading their justifications for their votes, I’ve learned some more about the field of the possibles. All to the good.

    FUN!

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    1. “the voice of people whose votes were not confirmed by others”

      Exactly, well said. I hate seeing Colvin at no.4, but his placement doesn’t diminish the list. Even if I don’t agree I can certainly appreciate the counter-argument.

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    2. Well said Art. We all have differing opinions as to where some of these guys should go. The whole point of this is to spark conversation and have a little fun. Everyone has their reasons for picking certain players, thakfully there are more respectful people who rationally explain their views than there are those who complain about the list or degrade other prospects in hopes of elevating their guy.

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  26. I think we should put Kenny Giles on the list. I am more excited about him than, for example, Savery or Pointer.

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    1. catch………Bleacher Report on Giles:
      “……… Kenneth Giles is a presence on the mound and isn’t afraid to pitch inside with a big fastball. While that may be true, the lack of an effective off-speed pitch keeps him from climbing much higher on this list (24th right now.) It’s easy to like his fastball, which sits in the mid to upper 90s. However, he has struggled with command in the past and lacks complementary pitches. At just 21-years-old, there is still time for him to grow as a pitcher, but with an explosive fastball and not much else, there are more polished college pitchers in this system with a bit of a higher ceiling.”

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  27. I generally think that everything written on Bleacher Report is complete garbage, although I do agree that Kenneth Giles is somebody to keep an eye on…although I think he’s more of a middle-relief guy at this point than anything else. Fortunately for Giles, there have been some pretty successful relievers who had little more than a strong fastball to get them by.

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    1. Kenny Giles is an intereting name, but I’m more intrigued by Ethan Stewart right now. I’m not sure either should be top 30 though.

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  28. I took Lisalberto Bonilla here. One of my concerns with Tyson Gillies is that even before the 2010 season, there was a bit of buzz about how his scouting reports didn’t see him as a future All Star. Guys leave High Desert, move to AA and lose 150 points off their OPS easy. So I’m bearish on Gillies.

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  30. Luis Castillo was a very good player in his prime and a fine player to be compared to, but I certainly hope that Quinn doesn’t fall off a steep cliff like Castillo did in his post-Marlins career. And also being better than Castillo at ANY point in time would obviously be even better.

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  31. Here are some guys to think about. Some may be 1 year shooting stars. Some are tool sheds who haven’t performed (yet?). Some are names of old that we’ve forgotten about. Some are interesting names to debate. A guy like Leandro Castro has produced year in and year out like less than a handful of prospects have done. Brown comes to mind as one of those few.

    Name Age / Level Triple Slash OPS Other
    Carlos Valenzuela 20 / GCL .331/.379/..438 .817 Too old?
    Gustavo Gonzalez 20 / GCL .292/.346/.365 .710 Too old?
    Alejandro Villalobos 19 / GCL .285/.341/.358 .698 5k/10bb / 44g
    Kelly Dugan 20 / A- .284/.343/386 .730 Former top pick
    Brian Pointer 19/GCL .278/.353/.503 .856 6hr/47k/ 47g
    Leandro Castro 22/A+ .277/.304/.481 .785 10hr/5bb/56g
    Kyrell Hudson 20/A- .275/.322/.357 .679 63k / 68g
    Cameron Rupp 22/A .272/.46/.373 .720 96k,/99g
    Cesar Hernandez 21/A+ .268/.306/.333 .639 4hr/80k/23bb/119g
    Aaron Altherr 20/A & A- .243/.292/.339 .630 Too Shed
    Zach Collier 20/A- & A .255/.328/.349 .676 99k/40bb/112g

    I hope this table formatting stays after it’s loaded.

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    2. I like Brian Pointer, but not for a little while yet. He’s only in the GCL and his performance was good, not great. He’s already been getting votes but I’d have him in the early 20s somewhere.

      Castro figures into my list but I don’t like him as much as some do. He’s slightly old for his level and has trouble getting on base but it seems like he has decent power and a little bit of speed.

      I may have Collier and Hernandez in my top 30 but I’m not sure yet. Rupp is another guy I like because of how he finished last year after a very poor start.

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    3. I’m still on the Altherr bandwagon. He had 37 steals last yr with a good base stealing %. This is an important yr for him. I would like to see him at Clearwater by yrs end. Hudson needs to prove that last year was no fluke. I think Hernandez is going the wrong way and could start at Clearwater depending on the health of Harold Garcia. Zach Collier should be in the top 25 here. He will start off in Clearwater once serving the suspension. I hope Rupp build off that second half. He has the defensive skills just not sure of the offense. Castro performed well in less then 60 games in Clearwater with some decent power. I think he starts there and when Collier comes back they bump him up to Reading. I would like to see Pointer get some at bats in Lakewood in the beginning of the year and if all does not go well he can play at Williamsport. Lets see if Dugan can stay healthy in 2012. Valenzuela will probably be the starting the 3b at Williamsport this year.

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      1. Valenzuela may be placed higher because of his age and his bat. It would be a good chance to see what he can do at that level. He is a promising hitter. He may be buried in the system otherwise. Gustavo Gonzalez is another potentially good player they may want to see more of. I’d like to see Claypool and Castro on the list. Hyatt will probably see major league action this year if he maintains his control. He has done everything asked of him. He doesn’t need to be on this list. He has pretty much topped out at a major league level. Good for him.

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    4. The Latin player’s ages, plus identity issues, are once again coming under intense scrutiny by league officials and the other govt agencies dealing with visa and immigration concerns. Tha Fausto Carmona-Roberto Heredia fiasco has again opened a pandora’s box. So lets see if the ages of these players above are truly accurate.

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      1. Good point. I think they have tended to get mixed up in the Dominican Republic. Venezuela’s records seem OK.

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        1. Agree….the DR seems to be the crux of those problems….the other countries, Mexico, Ven, Panama, have better controls and do not have to worry about monitoring ‘buscones’ like the DR does.

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  32. I think the surprise of the year will be Cisco. I think this maybe the year he gains strength and makes the show as a middle reliever with a different style. At least it is a hope.
    Bellman you left off the local guy Carlos Alonso probably the highest OBP in the system and a mystery man(can he do it for real)

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    2. Alonzo didn’t make my list because he was 23 last year. I made an arbitrary cut at 22. His triple slash was pretty darn good (.322/.436/.421) and an OPS ..861. The OBP is absolutely sick. His downside was he did it at WPT and LWD. That makes him old, very old for these leagues. I hope he gets pushed hard so we can see if he’s for real.

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  34. I think maybe we need to look at David Buchanan, Austin Hyatt, Garrett Claypool in the next 10 picks or so. Buchanan might be able to slide in at the late teens early twenties behind the likes of Bonilla, Wright, Quinn, Rupp, etc while Hyatt and Claypool would be in the mid 20s

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    1. Hyatt should be early 20’s. Buchanan should probably be late 20’s. I’m not sure Claypool should be top 30.

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        1. That’s reasonable. I just have Hyatt higher, due to proximity and the fact that he has at least one major league plus pitch. Hyatt should be ranked higher than both Schwimer and Savery, on this list.

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      2. I tend to think Hyatt should be more late teens than early 20s, but that’s nitpicking. At this point there is a valid rational for a number of high-ceiling younger position players with big bonus numbers. But after Bonilla (who I went with here), there is no other pitcher who should before Hyatt,

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  35. Wow just read MLB.Com has Cesar Hernandez rated as their #5 2b prospect. Are we not giving him enough love or are they way off?

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  37. As far as Lisalberto Bonilla goes: he’s got one season at Lakewood under his belt and only had 15 starts. I frankly feel like, as is the case with a lot of Dominican prospects, I am perhaps downgrading him because he didn’t appear on my radar screen early as a result of the draft. On the other hand … he’ll turn 22 next June. Effectively, he’ll be about as old as some of those college seniors we take in the draft. Not saying there’s he’s not worth following, but I’m unsure why he’s risen so dramatically. Perhaps I missed something last season. I saw the commentary in the Baseball America chat, cited in the thread to the discussion last week, and what I read sounds very good, but very unpolished. But I’m willing to be convinced he belongs here, but none of the arguments thus far have done it for me. I agree that if we’re going to give heavy weight to his Lakewood stats we should give similar consideration to Austin Wright, whose numbers are even more impressive, albeit in considerably fewer innings.

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  38. i am a little confused by the lack of support for hernandez. I personally have him at 10 which may have been a little over zealous in years past but in a very thin system he fits fine there imo but to not even be on the ballot yet is surprising. People were high on him after he hit .325 in low a then he double jumped and held his own. If he moved to lakewood instead of clearwater,he probably would have hit .300 with a 700+ OPS and people would have put him on the list already. His walk to k ratio did go down considerably so I guess that could be one reason, but again with the double bump I was satisfied with his season. Does anyone know anything about his fielding and ability to stick at 2B?

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    1. Last year Baseball america said he was a good enough defender to play shortstop. I would think he could stick at 2B.

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    2. Mixed feelings. He probably should be in the conversation at this point. I think the skepticism does have a lot to do with his much worse bb/k ratio. Also, while double jumped, he was not exactly young for A+. Yes, “age appropriate,” but what I think some people don’t realize is that most players who end up becoming major league regulars were young for their level as they moved through the minors. Or to put it another way, if a player is age appropriate, you really want to see him excel if you expect him to be a real prospect. “Holding his own” in 2011 is a little generous – .306 OBP with no power does not scream prospect. For perspective, Galvis, the same age, and a slick fielding SS, performed better offensively at a higher level, even considering context, and people still question whether he will hit enough to be a major league regular.

      But all THAT said, he is a guy who has some positives and he could certainly return to the radar very quickly if he puts up numbers comparable to 2010, and he could indeed do that. Lack of power still a bit of a concern from my point of view, though.

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    1. Brown has too many ABs in the Majors. He’s no longer defined as a prospect for this list. He’s still highly valued by most of us and he’ll eventually have his day/week/month/10years in the sun.

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  40. Interesting thing about the voting on this slot is the number of write-ins. 21 “Other” votes have been cast. I’m not sure who they are being cast for but with 11 guys already named on the list, that shows that there are a lot of guys being considered at this point in the list. My list indicates that too. I have more guys written in the margin of my list than I have guys in actual slots.

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    1. I have Austin Hyatt and Harold Garcia of my personal top 14 still to vote for. Hyatt’s been talked about a little but Garcia’s been very much overlooked. Garcia’s put up similar offensive numbers to Tyson Gillies overall in the minor leagues. In High Dessert (high A) Gillies OPS was 888 (slash line 331/416/471). At Clearwater (also high A) Garcia’s OPS was 882 (331/396/486). Garcia is a better basestealer and has had more success at AA. Both are plus defenders at important positions. Garcia’s missed less time due to injury than Gillies. Garcia’s problem is that he’s 2 years older than Gillies, but as a 25-year old playing at AA or AAA, he’s still young enough for me to consider him a pretty good prospect.

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