2012 Reader Top 30, #13

2012 Reader Top 30

While the voting was initially close, Larry Greene Jr bashed his way to the #12 spot, just like he’ll hopefully be bashing balls out of the park in 2012. We now move on to #13, where BJ Rosenberg will enter the ballot in place of LGJ based on the write-in vote he received. As a reminder on eligibility for the list, to be eligible the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. So far we have

01. Trevor May, RHP
02. Jesse Biddle, LHP
03. Sebastian Valle, C
04. Brody Colvin, RHP
05. Freddy Galvis, SS
06. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
07. Jon Pettibone, RHP
08. Justin De Fratus, RHP
09. Maikel Franco, 3B
10. Julio Rodriguez, RHP
11. Tyler Greene, SS
12. Larry Greene Jr, OF

Check below for #13

89 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #13”

  1. Gillies, James or Pointer, but I’m not sure which. I’m going with Gillies here, based solely on proximity to the majors.

    Like

    2. I’m with Pointer here. Can’t rationalize putting JJ ahead of him if he only projects as a defensive replacement/ 4th OF. Unless of course he stops K’ng 30% of the time and has a monster year @ the plate, then I’m on the JJ bandwagon.

      Like

  4. Jiwan James was next on my board, but not excited about him anymore.
    I will vote Carlos Tocci this round.

    Like

    1. I am excited about Tocci too. He performed very well in 98 ABs in the Liga Paralela, better than a lot of guys older than he. Plus he showed a pretty good batting eye. An interesting comparison is also how much better he did than Herlis Rodriguez, who himself was pretty good in the VSL. Herlis is a year older than Tocci.

      Like

      1. Tocci also hit better than Edgar Duran, who is 4 years older and played an entire full-season at Lakewood.

        Like

  5. James, Bonilla, Wright then Gillies in that order for me. Then I’ll start to consider the GCL/first year guys.

    Like

    1. From that article Jiwan James talking about himself:

      “I haven’t surprised myself at all with my performance,” said James, who wouldn’t mind showing up in Philly sooner than later: “There’s always people coming out of the woods, and people say, ‘Oh, this guy had a monster year.’ ”

      I suppose some people are easily impressed.

      Like

      1. I really enjoyed this quote:

        “Combine that arm with the sort of speed that resulted in 64 steals the past two seasons – and the kind of fearlessness that resulted in 36 failed steal attempts and 152 strikeouts the past two seasons – and you have the sort of player who expects to succeed. And to be a successor.”

        Never knew strike outs and caught stealings were a positive attribute. Certainly, it’s good that he is stretching his boundaries on the bases – without failure there can be no learning – but it’s still a comical ‘positive’.

        Like

      2. The intentional contrast in that article between Brown (“No one knows…if Domonic Brown will ever see the Phillies’ outfield again”) and James (very next sentence “This time next year, Jiwan James might be a very hot commodity”) cracked me up. Seriously, JJ could supplant Brown??

        Like

        1. Even James’ detractors would say his defense is excellent. While Brown’s supporters would admit Brown’s defense is shaky. If James makes it it’ll be as a CFer. If Brown makes it he’ll be a corner outfielder. I don’t think the progress of one has any bearing on the other.

          Like

          1. Perhaps my use of the word “supplant” was wrong. Suggesting that Brown might never see the Phils outfield while talking up James as a prospect is ridiculous.

            Like

    2. After talking about his yoga experiences, Hayes says the Phils would bend over backwards if May turned out to be as good as Carl Pavano. Really? Really!?!? Pavano’s had a fine, middle of the road career and whatever, but really?!?!??!??!??! Your top prospect and you’d bend over backw…ugh…writers.

      Like

  10. Austin Wright. Philadelphia’s answer to Andy Pettitte (just dreaming here).

    It would not surprise me if Wright ends 2013 in the majors. Call it a hunch, but I think he’s going to be really good.

    Like

    1. Dreaming is good….has the right body type….JoeJordan may start him at LKW and hope for a mid-year jump to CLW.

      Like

      1. Why would Wright start at a level he already showed he could dominate? Who should be at Clearwater ahead of Wright? Colvin, Bonilla, Biddle and…Claypool? Buchanan?

        Anything can happen in ST, and perhaps I’m overrating a 33IP sample, but it makes no sense to me for Wright to start at LKW.

        Like

    2. I’m with you, Catch. Wright was better than Bonilla in Lakewood (11K/9 vs 8K/9 for Bonilla) and is only 9 months older.

      Like

  11. Went with Jiwan James here. He needs to have a strong year at Reading in 2012 though. He’s trending sideways right now which is not necessarily a good thing

    Like

  12. Bonilla – he had a nice year, stats wise, at an age appropriate level. Has anyone seen scouting reports on him?

    I’m not excited about James due to his OBP.

    Like

      1. Yea, the Phillies want him to develop his fastball so that his change doesn’t lose value at higher levels.

        I like pitchers with killer changeups. Remember Hamels survived as a very good pitcher for several years throwing an average fastball and an unhittable changeup.

        Like

          1. The reason so many pitchers have success with a changeup (Hamels and Madson, just to name two that have recently come through our system) is because fastballs and changeups have opposite platoon splits (yes pitches have platoon splits). So basically a changeup makes a pitcher more complete (ideally they have a slider and multiple kinds of fastballs).

            For that reason, when I heard Bonilla had a plus change I got really excited. A plus change can go a long, long way. Keep working on that fastball, Bonilla, and you will see time in the show.

            Like

  14. JJames here, and looks like he’ll finally be winning (two or three spots too late in my opinion).

    Still pushing the Austin Hyatt bandwagon, at least in so far as getting him on the ballot (BJ rosenberg? really???). Someone referenced his FIP being 3.76. But I’d be really curious to see his xFIP, given we know Reading is a bit of a bandbox particularly for Lefty hitters, and further, that Hyatt hadn’t before had a propensity for HRs allowed, so I’m curious about sample size effect. If anyone knows where his xFIP is, please share, Fangraphs doesn’t have it.

    I still see Hyatt as a real back of the rotation option in a year or two and if he can put up 180+ league average innings at a low cost for a couple of years, which I think is a real possibility, if not exactly likely, he would be way more valuable than nearly anyone else on this list is likely to be.

    Like

    1. Hyatt has a tendency for giving up flyballs. Perhaps his home run rate was suppressed in LKW and CLW and is overstated in REA? Either way, he is old for his league and has not set the scouting community on fire. Maybe he can be a cheap replacement starter or a middle reliever. I guess I am not a believer despite the excellent strikeout rates.

      Like

  15. Gotta go with Pointer (again). I’m not usually one to question people’s votes, but I am totally perplexed by the Tyson Gillies support. He didn’t even crack my top 30, largely due to the fact that he has missed the bulk of the past two seasons. I’d love to be proven wrong, but the guy needs to show me something, or at least be healthy

    – Jeff

    Like

    1. Gillies hit .340 in AA (granted it was a hitter’s league) two seasons ago and has shown excellent defense when healthy, but he’s been limited by injuries since coming over to the Phils organization. Pointer hasn’t even played in low A yet. That’s the reasoning.

      Like

      1. I’m with you, and I had Gillies ranked top 5 two years ago – he just has to prove that he can stay on the field and be productive before I’m going to hop on board the Gillies bandwagon. Like I said, I hope he proves me wrong, duplicates his stats from a few years ago and gets me lobbying to get him nicknamed “Clark”

        – Jeff

        Like

        1. I think even Gillies’ supporters (myself included) have questions about his health. If you think about his injuries tho, they are kind of fluky and nothing that seem to point toward future problems (chronic).

          Gillies’ issues started when a hamstring injury was misdiagnosed in 2010, when a misaligned hip and groin were putting extra strain on his hamstring. During his second game back near full health in 2011, Gillies stepped on a first baseman’s foot and suffered a deep bone bruise and ligament injury. I know it’s hindsight but if the initial hamstring injury was correctly diagnosed, we may very well be talking about Vic’s replacement next year.

          I guess what a few of us see is a guy who’s run into some real bad luck the last two years. He’s proven he can hit at higher levels, and his defense and ability to get on base are among the best in the system. In short, his supporters feel that now healthy, he’ll shake off the rust and by the end of the year be back where he was. May be wishful thinking but if all goes right I could see him skyrocketing upward if his hitting comes around faster than expected.

          Like

  16. Went with Gillies here. Frankly, I don’t quite know what to do with him–the whole “if healthy” thing makes it hard to place him, and I could see a very reasonable argument for leaving him out of the Top 20 entirely. But to my mind, he still profiles as a similar player to James, and he’s showed far more success over a full season in the past. Admittedly, that season was two years ago. But if the injuries are behind him–I know, a big ‘if’–he could end up being a Galvis-esque sleeper this year. The team needs CF depth, because Victorino’s headlong style of play makes him prone to small injuries, and one of these days he’s probably going to get a big one. I’m not sure Mayberry, Nix or Posednik would qualify as long-term solutions there, especially if we are already depending on either Mayberry or Nix to play left. That’s a longwinded way of saying that I can see a scenario–not a likely one, but a possible one–where Gillies impresses in Spring Training, manages to stay healthy, and ends up playing a significant role on the Phillies in 2012.

    On the other hand, I could also see him popping his hamstring and disappearing completely. So, like I said, he’s a polarizing case. I think somewhere halfway down the Top 30 list is the right place for him.

    Like

  17. I know you guys are getting tired of hearing me say it but Gillies has above avg. MLB tools possibly All-Star type tools (wait for it…wait for it….if healthy) where it counts. He gets on base and he hits for avg with some OPS.

    This JJ love is just wishful thinking. You could sway me if he put up some numbers in AA maybe even High A but his slash line in nothing higher than low A at his age is not impressive enough. Having said that I’m happy to be wrong on one of our prospects when I view them negatively.

    Like

    2. Gilies versus James is an interesting comp. Both lost a couple of years of development time for different reasons. Their ages are close. Their level is close. Their skills sets are at least somewhat comparable; each has a full season at high A.

      Let’s see … James is 6 months younger, point for him. Gillies’ actual performance has been considerably better, even adjusting for context (not just his high A season, either – he was quite good at low A as well). Arguably an injury concern with Gillies, though to me it sounds like he’s licked that problem.

      I don’t think either one is likely to be a regular in the majors. I’d have to give the edge to Gillies, though, even though I’m not as high on him as you are. I think both of them belong a few spots lower, maybe 15/15. Voted for Bonilla here.

      Like

    1. Hmm…he has Altherr at 10. And he used the term TOOLSHED!

      Also, does Ervis Manzanillo really touch 96?

      Like

    2. Interesting list which clearly favors potential a lot more than proximity but it’s great to get some real scouting reports on these guys.

      I’m not surprised by Manzanillo’s stuff because we heard good things about him before last season but his performance was pretty bad last year. That’s where the argument of ceiling vs. likelihood of playing in the majors comes into play.

      Like

      2. Hmm, I don’t see it as favoring raw potential, at least with some of the picks (Garcia, e.g.). Honestly it seems kind of idiosyncratic, with a few odd choices. Still an interesting list.

        Wow, does he ever bash JRod in the comments. The one really strange comment from him is “doesn’t have a ton of movement.” We know (or think we know) his speed is sub par, his command is nothing to write home about … if he doesn’t have much movement (contrary to everything else we have heard), how is he getting even less advanced hitters out?

        Like

  19. While it is a kind of dogfight as to who should be listed where, I submit that it should be a big consideration as to who is nearest to the show in our rankings. Aumont justifiably is high on the list because of his apparent talents coming to fruition at the AAA level. Likely that he will see MLB sometime in ’12 if he keeps om keeping on. DeFratus fits the same category: on the cusp of a call-up in ’12, adding to the turnover of the pen toward youth…a good thing.

    This all is why I want to promote Gillies. IF–and that’s a BIG IF–he can stay healthy and recover his at bat skills as they had been before his legs collapsed, he would be the closest position prospect to the show in the system other than Galvis who will play at AAA in continuing to add a decent bat to his resume.

    We know that Gillies is an outstanding center fielder. We know–given cured wheels–speed is a large part of his game. Bring the bat along and voila, we’ve got a legitimate CF prospect ready to show his wares at the show.

    With due respect to all the commentary here, we shouldn’t miss the proximity issue.

    Go, Gillies.

    Like

    1. I look at it as “who has the best combination of ceiling, proximity, performance and health”. The only two guys I can think of that have a good ceiling, have played at least above short season ball, have performed well and don’t have serious health concerns are Bonilla and Wright. I really can’t quite understand why they’re not getting more votes now, although Bonilla seems to be generating some talk.

      Like

      1. I agree whole heartedly. I would rank both Bonillia ahead of both L Greene and JJ. Wright I’m not sure definitely should be soon. A little older for his level of play but this guy could be better than Biddle.

        Like

        1. Wright is only nine months older than Bonilla. He was 21 last year at LKW and will be 22 this year at (hopefully) CLW.

          Like

  20. i can’t belive people have JJ As a prospect was not even worthy of protecting on the 40 man roster. My vote for bonilla. Should be in top 10

    Like

    1. It’s not that he “wasn’t worth protecting” as much as it was that the Phillies knew no team would pick him and have him sit on their 25-man roster for an entire year.

      Like

    2. The Phillies have Jiwan James as a prospect as he is in Philly right now with the other top prospects during their week long orientation.

      Like

  21. I had a tough time deciding who to pick here, but I decided to go with Austin Wright due to his talent and his left-handedness.Jiwan James still has a lot of upside I think, but he still hasn’t shown he can hit enough…and it’s hard for me to vote for guy who’s just an ‘athlete’ especially when considering how many once-promising busts the Phillies have had just because they never learned how to hit enough.

    Like

    1. You know…kid has been flying under a lot of radars…he could be a break-out prospect in Williamsport this year. Seems he can make contact and hit..as oppose to many ‘toolsy’ OFs the Phillies pan their hopes on.

      Like

  23. If JJ was such a prospect they would have never risked loosing him for free by not protecting him. By leaving him off the roster means that other teams never even inquired about JJ in trades. This guy and hewitt have the same value 0. Nice 2ble or triple A guys.not prospects

    Like

    1. People need to stop reading into the Rule 5 draft so much. It was a calculated risk to leave him unprotected. What MLB team is going to use a spot on their 25 man roster for a guy who has only been playing the field for a little over two years? He’s too raw and the Phils gambled, correctly, that teams wouldn’t want to use a pick on a guy who’s still seen by many as a bit of a project.

      And seriously? You’re going to sit there and say no teams have inquired about him? And compare him to Hewitt? I’m wondering if you have any clue what you’re talking about or if I’m just feeding the troll here.

      Like

      1. All I’m saying is if I have a girlfriend who I love and don’t want to loose, I’m moving her in! not leaving her exposed to anyone who wants her unless I knew she was fat and ugly and no 1 wants her. Or I just don’t mind loosing her. Why wouldn’t I protect him so I can save a roster spot for john bowker was just released so he can go to japan. Trust me when I tell you the phillies nor any of the other 29 teams love JJ. Don’t get me wrong nice player to HOPE on but a long shot.

        Like

        1. But if that girlfriend was underage… you know what? I don’t think that’s a good analogy.

          James is clearly no sure thing, but he’s a talented player who has shown some level of success while not far from being age appropriate for his level and having lost a couple years of development time. If Hewitt ever has an OBP over .300 in Hi-A, that would be borderline amazing. That said- there just wasn’t a team that wanted to keep such a raw player on the 25 man roster all year. It doesn’t mean he won’t be good down the line, just A) that he’s not ready and B) that his potential isn’t so incredible that he can’t be passed up. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a nice ceiling.

          Like

  26. There seems to be a lot of difference of opinion starting at this point. I’m wondering how the next round will go. Tyson Gillies is #2 right now, but I have Bonilla, Wright, Tocci, Pointer, Walding and JC Ramirez higher than him on my board. Hard to believe someone who hasn’t played in two years could maintain their prospect status that long without reestablishing themselves.

    Like

    1. A couple of fluke/misdiagnosed injuries doesn’t take a guys talent away. Hopefully he doesn’t step on anyone’s feet this year. He still has a ton of potential.

      Like

  27. Tyson Gillies. Number 13 is a fitting number. This list should be about chance of making it to the Phillies and the value once there. James and Bonnilla (who both have potential) have not excelled yet at higher levels.

    Like

      1. Thank you.

        It’s like people are thinking he’s proven in AA. He had a great year in Hi-A in a great hitters environment. He’s barely played in the last 2 years and he’s only had success 1 level higher than Bonilla.

        Like

    1. Why would you want that? People don’t like to vote on anything other than projection. Results don’t matter!! And Cesar was hurt last year, if you listen to some posters being hurt no longer makes you a prospect.

      Like

      2. At 21 Cesar is still a legit prospect. His slash is excellent he projects as a high on base guy good avg. guy. Very Little Pop and not sure his defense projects above avg.

        At 25 Garcia is iffy as a prospect. He has the numbers for sure and an argument can def. be made he should be in the top 20. I’ll bet he gets a long look in ST.

        Rupp is 23 with 2 seasons-NYPL stats less than impressive and decent at Lakewood. Not sure about anyone else I don’t see him as a top 20.

        Like

  30. No problem with the top 11 but I would have gone Gillies12, Bonillia13, Wright14, Cesar15, Garcia16, James17, LGJR18, Pointer19, Quinn20, Walding21.

    I’m not ignoring Tocci but so much can happen between age 16 and age 20. I’d also like to see what he does at the higher levels before putting him in the Top 20 this year.

    I don’t get Savery, Schwim, or Rosenberg being in this convo. Do any of them project as an 8th or 9th inning guy in the bigs? If not they are just a dime a dozen BP arm and not worthy of Top 20 Status.

    Like

Comments are closed.