2012 Reader Top 30, #1

2012 Reader Top 30

Hello everyone. First off, happy new year to you. We’re going to start the Reader Top 30 today, and for those of you who are new to the site, take a look at last year’s voting to see how everything works. To quickly summarize, we will start at #1 and select the best prospect in the system, based on total number of votes received. Once a player has been voted in to a spot he can’t be voted for again. We’ll go down the line until we get to #30. Because we’re at the tail end of the New Years holiday, I will leave voting for #1 open both today and tomorrow, and the voting for #2 will begin on Wednesday, with a new poll every weekday. There has been a bit of confusion in terms of who is eligible, so this year we’ll make things really simple. To be eligible, the player must have fewer than 130 AB or 50 innings pitched. Just another reminder, you can only vote once, and if you want to vote for someone not listed in the choices, vote “Other” and type in your answer. The poll for #1 is below, enjoy.

Check below the jump for the poll

83 thoughts on “2012 Reader Top 30, #1”

  1. Trevor May is my #1.

    So Brown, Mayberry & Matinez are out. Worley, Stutes, Herndon & Bastardo are also all out. I was already assuming these guys were out but it’s good to have rules and boundries.

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  2. I know Biddle won’t win the vote, but I will still vote him as my #1.
    My reasoning: He is just one level behind T May, but 2 years younger. He is lefthanded. He performed well above an east-coast talent may have been expected, in his 1st year. I see him having the higher ceiling.

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  3. Of course they are out….they have all had MLB experience, Herndon spent two seasons with the big club. THe poll is for Phillies prospects…those we expect to contribute and soon at the MLB level. May is also my #1.

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    1. Easy Dave. James put that to be eligible guys have to have fewer than 130 ABs or 50 innings pitched at the MLB level. Those were the guys that met the criteria this year. Last year we had a few debates about whether Brown was eligible or even Herndon. So guys like Schwim, Savery, DeFratus are eligible even though they threw a few innings on the big club.. I think you’ll see these guys mentioned once or twice and maybe a lot.

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  4. Thumbs up for the new Poll box PP. Is it possible to display the number of total poll votes, or total votes per player?

    Trevor May here at no. 1 but strong consideration for Biddle here as well

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  5. I voted May #1 based on improvment in control and age. The fact that he is older and a level higher means that he has at least a slightly higher probability of being successful. However, Biddle is right there behind him and I am really excited to see him this year.

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  9. Trevor May, potential #2 in AA, at this point I feel comfortable that even if his control does not improve at all that he will at least be a high end #4 and probably a low end #3. Unless he regresses completely he doesn’t seem like a reliever at this point.

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  10. Hard to argue with Trevor May. Big body, sick K/IP numbers, he’s a beast.

    But I’m voting for Aumont. I think he’s going to pass De Fratus and grab hold of a set up role behind Pap this season unless Madson comes back on a one-year deal.

    Seems odd to vote a setup man ahead of starters and regulars, but I could see Aumont getting hot and making an immediate impact.

    I could have voted Valle if he had better plate discipline, or Pettibone if his secondary stuff had more bite, or Biddle with improved command.

    Great list, thanks!

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  11. I, like the majority of others it seems, gotta go with May with a nod to Biddle as a fairly close second. I really feel good about these two, and it makes it even better that Biddle is a hometown kid. Hope he reaches the majors relatively quickly and enjoys many years of success with the hometown Phillies.

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  13. I think Biddle is close. It’s a bit of a case of potential vs. performance with those two. Both guys performed well last year but May’s numbers were eye-popping. Although Biddle probably has the higher ceiling being bigger, younger and left-handed. I voted May.

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  14. May…I think Biddle is 2 pretty easily, and after that, good battle btw Valle and others. I liked Pettibone last year and he showed well in 2011, and Colvin still has a high ceiling. Galvis and top 2 relievers probably in the mix for the next 3 spots and for me, JRod Bonilla and Franco are in the top ten hunt with the Greenes.

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          1. The only Tool that Larry has..power.. isn’t that far in front of Tyler .. the other four that Tyler has.. is way ahead of Larry! By the way Tyler Greene plays SS.. !! And the bat speed and hand quickness is also far superior for a kid that is nealt 50 lbs lighter!!!

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            2. You mean to tell me that “The Chosen One” (as Tyler has tattooed on his body) has more upside than a guy that stops every player, scout and on-looker during batting practice at instructs.. I saw Larry at instructs and his power compares with Quinn’s speed in terms of major league potential.. Against the Blue Jays in October in Dunedin, Quinny turned a bleeder into right into a double.. Then stole third and scored on a shallow pop-up to left for a sacrifice.. Quinny’s going to find a place on the field with his game changing speed, Larry with his power and Walding with his complete game.. Walding has a cannon from third or short and crushed a 90+ fastball to the top of the right center wall at Brighthouse field.. The only thing I hear is how TCO (aka “The Chosen One”) is the complete package and the “best of the bunch” on this board.. Really?? Not what I personally observed over two weeks of instructs..

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  16. I voted Biddle here. He’s got the higher ceiling, and he’s moving quicker in the system than May, plus he’s a lefty. I’m excited to see him shine.

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  17. Trevor May is #1. I don’t think Biddle is close to him. He has a way to go before he puts up numbers like May does. I prefer not to vote for players who have not played pro. I would not vote for a first year player who has not played an inning. Seein’s believin’. Tyler Green is in my top thirty. He proved what he can do last year. I rank DeFratus over Aumont because he has the control and command that Aumont does not have. There is not that much difference in other skills. Aumont will be refining those skills at AAA for much of the year unless he shows that major league control and command.

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  18. I went with May over Galvis and Valle. I worry about A-ball pitchers because they are hard to project and are more injury-prone as a group then hitters, but I am going with May #1 because he has been durable, has a high strike out rate, and has 3 good pitches. His control worries me, but last year’s 4.0 BB/9 was a full BB below his previous season low, which could be the beginning of a trend. I’d like to see his ERA below 3 before I would be really comfortable with him as our top prospect, but Galvis, Valle, and the rest all have question marks as well. Biddle is 2 years younger than May, and just 1 level behind, so he could pass May with a good 2012 or 2013.

    I’m happy to see Galvis on the ballot. He nosed past Valle as the top position prospect with his success at AA and AAA last year versus Valle’s drop in power and walks at high A. I expect Valle will bounce back in those categories, but I can see Galvis’ power and walks improving too as he matures and gets stronger. He’s only 8 months older than Valle.

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  23. I picked May over Biddle. He made significant strides in his control this year and the stuff is still there. The Houston trade wiped out the guys who would have been my #1, #2, and #5 picks. That leaves a very thin top 5.

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  24. By default, I voted Trevor May. I like his upside as a #2-#3 type starter. In this rotation, he’d fit in just fine there, hopefully behind Cole Hamels, (Doc and Lee for however long we can keep them)… and I’m a sucker for strikeout potential.

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  25. This was obviously May’s spot. I feel he has an outside shot at being a number 1 rather then 2, as everyone else assumes. As to biddle, he’ll get voted as the next prospect on our list, but not for me, I have serious concerns with him and think he profiles as a slightly lesser version of Randy Wolf at best. Valle has a chance to be special but it’s highly unlikely. He isn’t consistent enough, but his defensive improvements last year were great to see, floor as a back up catcher or journeymen. I think the strength Of the system (not including brown) is really in the 6-12 range, I really liked several of these draft picks this last year and Tocci has a ceiling as high as can be.

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  26. May-Valle-Biddle for me. I’m on record Valle will be special maybe not an all-star or in in his slash line but in all the ways you need your catcher to be. This will be a big year for Jesse to show he is up to the task.

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    1. You’re kidding me right? I presume you’re saying this becuase you think all our prospects suck and therefore you think Glavis sucks the least?

      Glavis in the best case scenario is a fringe starter for the phillies… that’s his ceiling!!! How in the hell can you say that is better then May?

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  28. The consensus in the industry seems to be Trevor May. No debate from me.

    Glad to have the eligibility defined. I might quibble over using AB instead of plate appearances in the future, but Anthony Rizzo of the Padres is the only player for whom that actually matters. The only borderline eligible player would’ve been Mathieson and he’s gone. Everyone is cut and dry this year.

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    1. Not on it at all. He did fine in winter league, but you need to at least wait until they’ve played in the states to evaluate them. For now, he’s not much more than a name, a bonus number, and a scouting report. Not to say that all of those aren’t quite good, especially the level of Phillies interest that this bonus indicates for an LA guy. If I were to rate him based strictly on projection from what little he has done and what we know, I guess I’d put him around #20, but won’t rate him on principle. Won’t put the new draftees who haven’t played yet nearly as high as others will either. To be realistic, you need to at least see how a guy does in a full-season league.

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      1. I agree with you. I don’t think we’ve even voted a guy into our top 30 from the South American Leagues and these guys have already had ABs or IPs. I always have trouble slotting a guy like Larry Greene. His potential is through the roof but he doesn’t have much of a track record. Is he Ryan Howard or Anthony Hewitt? There’s about a million miles between those two. I will slot him a lot lower than others but I’m fine with people putting him very high on potential alone. That’s what makes a horse race.

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        1. Both Greene and Tocci are unknowns but we actually have some data on Tocci (albeit small sample) against players who are older. Can’t say the same about Greene or most of the 2011 class.

          IMO, Tocci deserves a slot in the top 30 somewhere. Probably towards the end but definitely a top 30 choice.

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          1. I second that, any 800k player who beat up on older players, small sample size or not, has to be a better prospect then the back end of our top 30. Just my take.

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          2. What older players? Tocei or Tocci played in Liga Paralela which is the Junior version of the Venezuelan Winter League, for players with 3 years or less as a professional .

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            1. “for players with 3 years or less as a professional .”

              You just answered your own question. This is his first profesional year. Is that leauge full of just newly turned 16 year olds?

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            2. The guy played in a league that Harold Garcia played in, I believe. Harold Garcia has at 5 years professional experience.
              Tocci also hit better than Edgar Duran, in the same league, and Duran was in Lakewood last year. That is impressive for a 16 year old.

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            3. The Liga Paralela is operated as a junior version of the Venezuelan Winter League, and if candidates from the big VWL are rehabbing or need conditioning they are assigned there for conditioning. Harold Garcia and other players of that experience level had very limited time there. Also a few without the quality of experience for their assignment and I believe they can have a few Venezuelan players With more time in. It is still a league for players of lesser experience.

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            4. No matter what value you place on the league, Carlos Tocci was still outperforming older guys. Tocci just turned 16, and out-hit 20 year old Gustavo Gonzalez by a large margin. He also out-hit 20 year old Edgar Duran, and he played full-season ball at Lakewood.
              That is impressive no matter how you expain it. His performance at 16 in that league is as impressive as Tyler Greene’s in the GCL

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    2. I like Tocci in the top 20-25. Others will not agree because he hasn’t played for the Phillies yet, but I disagree with that.
      This is a prospect list, not “top performer” list. The fact that the Phillies payed him double, what they normally pay their top Latin player is an indication of what they think of his ability and prospect status. Add to that, he actually played well at 16, in the winter league, I can not think of 25 players that should be ahead of him. Same goes for Tyler Greene, Larry Greene and Roman Quinn.

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  30. Voted May and it’s not even close. I think after the 1st 10 or so this list is going to be really interesting, and many votes going to many different players. I would never vote a reliever number 1 because they just aren’t that valuable ( Papelbon’s ridiculous contract may say otherwise), but I think Aumont has the best chance of our prospects to be a star at his particular position. Obviously a star closer/set-up man isn’t as valuable as a good #2 or 3 starter though.

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  31. Had to go with Trevor May here, although he’d be at #3 behind Singleton and Cosart if we still had them. At this point I think he’s one of the few prospects we have left who has a pretty reasonable probability of being SOMETHING in the Majors for more than a cup of coffee. He still doesn’t have me as excited as some of the other prospects we’ve had in recent years, and part of that is because he still doesn’t profile as more than maybe a #3 starter at this point, unless he dramatically improves his control or something. He’d look a lot better to me if our farm system was still stacked and didn’t have to be our #1 prospect. Jesse Biddle I think has the higher ceiling, but he’s considerably more likely to falter due his young age and less track record than May.

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    1. Man I wish we still had singleton…. I think pence will continue to be a very good boarderline all star for the phillies over the next 4 years, but it’s still a hard pill to swallow, one of my favorite phillies prospects in a long time… (since cole hamels actually)

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  32. I voted for May, but I guess I’m not as excited about him as others here. Every scouting report I read about him talks about how the results are better than the tools. Unfortunately, Biddle’s a little too far away from the show to challenge May for the #1 spot. Hopefully some of those 2011 picks leap up the rankings next year.

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    1. I have spent the last 2 hours reading scouting reports on this guy from a variety of sources from a variety of years and if anything is clear after reading them, it’s just how subjecting they are and how different they can be from start to start. I read the following snippets “His stuff is electric” “He has excellent downward motion on his pitches” “He was way too wild and clearly had a variety of non-repeatable arm motions” “He telegraphed his curve and change-up” “He can paint the corners with his fastball and curve”, I could keep going, but after reading all these reports the point is he needs refinement but the natural talent is spread thick. He needs to fix his delivery and mechanics, but he has been better each year since coming into the league and there is no reason to think they won’t improve in the next 2 years. The difference between him being a #1 and a #3 is going to be how much it improves. Last year, had his walks been at 2 BB/9 he would have had a WHIP of 1.01 or so, that combined with his k rates and he would really be out of this world. (Think nearly cole hamesl stats). This pure talent is why I think May has the potential to be a number 1, maybe he never fixes his delivery and his command never becomes dominant, but these types of issues sound fixable to me. 2 years ago he came to camp a bit “soft” in the middle, this past year, he showed up in great shape, while this may have little to do with actual pitching prowless, it does highlight his willingness to work. May has a good work ethic, and I still think it’s possible he ends up a great pitcher for the phillies in a few years.

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  33. May is easily the #1 choice at this point. His K numbers last year were sensational, how many minor league guys get 200 Ks? We all agree that he’s not a finished product yet but a pitcher’s ability to make guys miss is huge and May has that, in spades. I would rate him higher than Cosart at this point since Cosart is looking more and more like a future closer to me.

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  34. Biddle although I am scared I caught him on a good day since others are reporting low velocity. I saw him at what I perceived to be in the 90’s with a very composed presence and smooth delivery. I did not see May this year but though he was a work in progress the year before. Great numbers though.

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    1. I doubt if anyone here has really seen any of the the lower younger guys guys. Its a crapshoot below aa. Has anyone seen the greens ,quinn. Galvis is another ruben amaro sr. I think amaro jr. Has had a very mediocer off season. Wash has had a great off. We couldnt trade d. Brown galvis and a pitcher for g. Gonzalez and then flip gio?

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      1. Btw kubel and a. Hill are still available
        This team needs a power hitter at third. Polanco doesnt cut it. Id take a 29 year old hill at third and a29 29 year old kubel in left.

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    1. Yea, I used to tremendously overvalue pitchers, but then I took an arrow in the knee.

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  37. If you give May a mulligan for his first half year in Clearwater, his control numbers don’t look all that bad. Call it nerves or overtrying but he is number one for me. Galvis is two.

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  38. So our #1 prospect is a guy who can’t repeat his delivery consistently and is very volatile in high A ball? When we have a .300 hitting catcher at AA and a top notch defensive SS with a now avg bat at AAA? Next thing I know a LOOGY will be rated our #2 prospect…

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    2. I see you have already promoted Valle but are using the past two years for May. Then again 2011 for Galvis. That is mental apples and oranges.
      When did May pitch poorly in 2011? April? Okay first time ever a pitcher started slowly!!!

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    3. The Phillies have a .300 hitting catcher in AA, who would that be? From what I see, their best hitting AA catcher in 2011 was Tuffy Gosewisch at .247.

      If you’re talking about Valle, he didn’t hit .300 at A-ball so I’m not sure how that makes him a .300 hitting catcher in AA. I think Valle is a top-5 prospect but overstating his numbers doesn’t help your argument.

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      1. That is NOT what the attached chart said. It said he was 5th in innings pitched last year. It wasn’t a rating but merely a straight statistical ranking in one statistical category.

        That being said, May is the Phillies’ current #1 prospect based on his level of progression, his performance, and his considerable upside. The ranking, to me, is also based on his likely projection. At worst, he figures to be a solid, back-end of the rotation innings eater. At best, he is a #1 or, more likely, a really good #2 (think Rich Harden when he was not injured or John Smoltz in one of his average years). I think Biddle has more upside, but also more risk. I also think there are several of other prospects who could have better major league careers than May but they are so far away or have so many questions (Valle, for example) that it’s just guesswork at this point and, thus, they don’t, at the current stage, deserve such a high ranking.

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