General Discussion: The end of 2011

Phillies Chatter

I wanted to quickly thank everyone for their continued support this year, including everyone who has helped provide original content here and those of you who read the site regularly and especially those of you who provide comments and feedback on a regular basis. I am planning a major post next week at some point, but I don’t want to promise it in case something else comes up and delays my timeline for releasing it here. This is something I have spent a considerable amount of time on, and I hope it is something that is well received. I will be off the grid quite a bit over the next 2 weeks, so I’ll create this discussion thread now, and it may be the last post for a little while. Of course if something major happens, like a trade, I will do my best to put something together.

So, discuss whatever it is you’d like here, trying to keep it related to the minor league system, and enjoy your holidays. I expect to have my major feature posted next week, so look for that. Thank you again for your continued support, and I am really looking forward to 2012, as I have a number of ideas and things I’d like to introduce here.

177 thoughts on “General Discussion: The end of 2011”

  1. Thanks again for the site and the content and all the posters, most of whom have worthwhile things to say.
    Here’s a topic: what will the rotations be to start the year? Here’s my guess:
    AAA: Bush, Mische, Elarton(?), Hyatt, Cloud
    AA: May, Pettibone, JRod, JC Ramirez, Naylor (?)
    A+: Colvin, Biddle, Buchannan, Bonilla, Claypool
    A: Garner, Wright, Morgan, Lino Martinez, Nesseth
    A-: Giles (starter?), Stewart, Klevin, Oviedo, Walter or Musser or Warner

    Obiously, the guesses are a bit softer for WSport. Will Nick Hernandez or Matt Way be back? Will Naylor? I could see Wright and/or Morgan going to CWater but there’s no room in the rotation. Go to town…

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    2. AAA Bush (first up as replacement pitcher for Phils), Hyatt, Cloyd, Naylor, and Elarton, (Fierabend, Cisco, Mitsch, and Kissock will compete for a spot).

      AA May, Ramirez, Rodriguez, Pettibone, Claypool (Way, Esposito, Gailey will compete for a spot).

      A+ Colvin, Biddle, Bonilla, Buchanan, Manzanillo ( Hollands, Hernandez will compete for a spot).

      A Wright, Morgan, Garner, Martinez, Nesseth (Bastidas and Kleven will relieve and later take over a spot when Wright and Garner are advanced replacing Colvin and Buchanan, when they move up to replace Ramirez and May.

      SS Stewart, Oviedo, Murray, Cusick, and Giles (Warner, Inch, Sasaki, and Kinder will replace those that throw too many pitches.

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    1. Can you imagine how good the Braves would be now had they not traded away Andrus, Harrison and Feliz? The pitchers they can do without, I suppose, and luckily they don’t need a shortstop…oh wait 🙂

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      1. They had no need for Andrus because they had Escobar… still don’t understand why they traded him other than to make Bobby Cox happy for his final 3 months.

        The trade just looks horrible because Texiera did nothing for their playoff hopes.

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        1. Yes, like you note, it would have been okay had they not turned around and gotten rid of Escobar. Not sure what the thinking was on that decision.

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          1. Even Chipper Jones called it a head scratcher. They like that Pastornicky (sp?) kid that they got in the deal enough to not seriously pursue Rollins or Reyes but I still don’t like that movie.

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  4. I was looking at the Rays farm system and I saw Tim Beckham was ranked number 7 on their list. The kid was the first overall pick a fe years back and has played okay. I think a change of scenery would do him well and give us a solid prospect at SS, 2B or outfield. We need to start to get players when certain phillies go down. Utley could go at any minute and polanco is fragile as anything. Amaro needs to start to get players who can be solid options when players go down instead of trading for someone.

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  5. I’m wondering if Galvis will see some reps at 2B, 3B and even the OF? He’s definitely a SS defensively but will he top out as a utility guy. If so, his value to the Phils will increase by playing other positions. I think the kid can play all of those positions but his bat might not make him a regular I still think highly of him but with Rollins signed, will he rot in the minors waiting for Jimmy to be injured and become his part-time replacement. The opposite side of working him as a utility guy is his trade stock will probably drop. Someone looking for a SS might not see the value of trading for a guy the Phils think tops out as a Utility guy.

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    1. Bell – I understand what you’re saying here about his value, but keep in mind he’s still quite young, I see no reason to rush him. I think he deserves a full year at AAA unless rollins goes on the 60 day DL (or worse). And in the mean time, lets hope he takes a step forward in his ability to take a walk and hit for average. I would be elated with a .300/.370 slash with a normalized BABIP.

      And even after this year, his bat needs all the repition it can get, defensively he’s ready today, but another 2 years of full time practice before that bat has a prayer.

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  6. What happens to a lower level player that doesn’t get protected in the Rule 5 Draft,but also doesn’t get p/u by another team.Does he stay with the existing team.

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  8. that is odd that a guy like Bowker sticks on the 40 man but someone young with a little potential gets removed. I doubt this will even matter years down the line but it makes you wonder.

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    1. My guess is that they want to get a better look at Bowker during spring training and have a need for a 5th outfielder given Ryan Howard’s situation.

      There’s also rumors that some Japanese teams have interest in him, maybe he’ll be released prior to then.

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  9. good point, they will need a 5th outfielder to start the season. I am hoping it is Podsednick if he is healthy. It is nice to have some speed on the bench. (Schnieder, Thome, Wigginton, Nix and Valdez….no speed) But I guess Bowker wouldn’t be a bad option if he rebounds and has a hot spring. There will be tons of extra outfielders that don’t have jobs in early Februrary that I bet the Phillies offer a minor league deal with an invite to ST.

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    1. I’m guessing that Orr will fill the Howard spot. With Polanco also coming off surgery, they’ll want the extra infielder for awhile and Orr can do that plus pinch run.

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  10. The one need the Phillies never seem to have on their bench is speed. I would love to have Rich Thompson or Scott Pods on their bench rather than Bowker. Now that they have Thome and NIx, left-handed bats are covered on bench. It is disappointing that Thompson has not gotten a chance, seems like hustles and plays decent defense.

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    1. Thompson plays excellent defense. But he really can’t hit well enough to hold a roster spot. A pinch runner made sense on a team like the 2004 Red Sox. But the Phillies’ major offensive strength is baserunning. There’s just not enough guys on the roster for whom you would want to pinch run.

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        1. Derrick Mitchell is a “one off” case, he’s the one guy who could defy the odds and somehow become a decent major league player – probably a good 4th outfielder, or borderline starter. He’s just very athletic and has done better as he has proceeded through higher levels.

          But putting that aside, I think we are going to learn a LOT about many of our pitching prospects this year. One of these guys might even end up being a late season call-up a la Madison Bumgarner in 2010. Very interesting.

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        2. I’ve really never denied he could become a decent back up – I still think he’s marginal even for that – at this point, at least – but he has some characteristics of a guy who could contribute as a 5th OF. What is annoying is the substantial contingent who believe he is a candidate for a role as a major league regular. *

          As the guy who keeps Howard’s spot on the 25 man warm … meh, he wouldn’t be my first choice, but there is something to be said for a guy who can pinch run and come in as a defensive replacement, even if his contribution as a hitter would probably be minimal. (Fun, and admittedly not entirely fair exercise – compare his minor league numbers with Bowker’s.)

          I also think it’s amusing that people think he took a step forward last year – even before his late season slump, his “improvement” was mostly an illusion of context.

          *Even the qualified Catch 22 version of this is misguided – there’s LOT’s of athletic guys out there who can’t hit – some of them learn to hit – not many proportionately – but those who do, generally learn to hit before they are 25. And he hasn’t “done better as he has proceeded through higher levels.” He took a significant step forward in his second season at high A, then retained much of that progress (but, again in context, regressed slightly) in AA. (Slightly lower OPS despite signficantly more favorable hitting context. His base stealing also took a step backwards.)

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  11. I think the Phils’ greatest bench need remains a versatile utility IF to fill in for Polanco, Rollins and Utley, who could miss as many as 100 games combined. Valdez should be the last guy off the bench, and Wigginton should play 2B and 3B on an emergency basis only.

    I have been touting a couple of LAA infielders for several months, Callaspo and Maicer Izturis. With the Angels’ crowded IF, one of these two may be available. Both have good gloves, can play three positions and have decent bats. I prefer Izturis a little more because he has a lot of SS experience and may be cheaper to acquire.

    When the starters cannot play, the drop-off in performance would not be so dramatic if Izturis or Callaspo were the back-up.

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    1. In other words the bench stinks.How can anyone not see that? The only real hope now is that Brown wakes up and adds REAL options.

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    2. There is no room at the inn; the bench is set.

      Compared to typical major league benches, our bench is not weak. It’s also a little improved over last year’s. It “stinks” only if you have a highly unrealistic vision of what a maor league bench can and should be. I think every move or non-move regarding the bench during the off season is defensible at least.

      All that said, there is I think a decent argument that, looking at this team specifically, and the chance that regular 2B-SS-3B may indeed miss an unusual number of games, they should have looked for a “super sub” for those positions. Easier said then done, of course, but not attempted. As I said, though, that ship has sailed.

      Obviously the guy that they would have had to replace was Valdez. I am not his biggest fan – he seems to get no respect from ANY of the various factions on this site – but I think people underestimate (a) how solid he was in 2010, and (b) the extent to which he is liked by the Phillie’s front office and manager.

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        1. Not really meant that way … I think most of the moves were good, and the one or two that weren’t were … defensible. I’m thinking mainly about Nix, which I thought was somewhat uninspiring – though even there, more as a bad sign of things to come (the continuing penchant for guys who don’t get on base).

          A large part of it is expectations. Mine are lower for the bench – given the realities of modern roster dynamics – and were lower for this off-season – given available resources and available players.

          As for Valdez … I don’t entirely share the front office enthusiasm for him, but he is better for his role than some of the crtitics around here think. Heck, if the Phillies were a younger team with less injury risk for the 2B/SS/3B, he would be perfectly fine. And he DID perform well in more extended playing time in 2010. I think he was playing ove his head, and 300 AB is more than he should be given. But unlike some moves that I have criticized, I see the logic at least.

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          1. I also think that some context is needed – as a general matter (there are a couple of exceptions I can think of), the Phillies’ bench priority is versitility and defense. I personally might not go quite as far down that road, but let’s recognize that there are trade offs. If they went with a more offensively accomplished bench, they would pay the price in terms of defense and versitility.

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    2. I’d put him at a #2/#3 now given his past control problems… I think by the end of this year we’ll have a solid understanding of the majority of the prospects in our system.

      I think Pettibone might end up having the best year of all the AA guys. A guy who can touch 95 mph with a sinking fastball, developing a solid change/slider, there’s a lot to like there.

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    3. He has #1/2 potential, but he needs to improve his command of all pitches and his breaking ball. I think he has the most raw talent of any pitcher on the farm and is already starting to show some polish.

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          1. Seriously. I use that trade all the time when people talk about Amaro. Pat Gillick gave up two high cieling starters for a year of Freddy Garcia and didn’t even request a physical…

            People can say Ruben’s not fit to be a GM or is an idiot, whatever they want but at least he’s gotten value back in every trade he’s made besides the 2nd Cliff Lee trade.

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            1. I personally believe he is also limited by Cholly’s preferences. e.g. vet ,vet,vet( an easy way to manage with built in excuses.

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            2. Absolutely. It’s almost impossible for him to acquire good bench pieces because Charlie won’t play anybody. Nobody wants to sign up to get a pinch hit at bat once every 2 or 3 days.

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          1. One of the worse……Ferguson Jenkins, Ryne Sandberg, Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen all rank right up there with it.

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            1. The Phils actually won the Rolen trade. Polanco has been more valuable since the trade than Rolen. Of course, trading Polanco away and keeping the sucky David Bell at 3B, then having the guy you traded him for go to jail for life sort of clouds our memories.

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    2. Great, he says sarcastically, a good lefty in the NL east. At least the Phils have bostered their righty swingers.

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    1. This is not necessarily a bad trade for Washington but, let me tell you, I think they will regret it. Not because Gonzalez is not good (he’s very good), but because the prospects they gave up are so freaking valuable. Brad Peacock and Brandon Beachy were the two best rookie starting pitchers that I saw last year. I give it a 40/60 shot that Peacock alone will be worth more than Gonzalez next year but the A’s got several other prospects as well.

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      1. I love Gio’s potential but I think Gio’s been overrated this off season. He’s a #2/3 starter who’s walked the most batters over the last two years. His numbers away from Oakland are terrible.

        The ceiling is there. If Gio can start to pitch better in more neutral parks, Washington’s getting a great deal. I agree with you though, there’s a lot of upside in that package Washington gave up.

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      2. The Nationals really have a shot at competing this year. The Marlins are incomplete, the Braves have weaknesses in their lineup and the Mets are MIA. The Phillies and Cardinals are the only teams in the NL I feel comfortable saying are sure contenders. A team like the Nationals can easily slip in there. Especially with Strasburg/Zimmerman at the front of that rotation.

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        1. No doubt Alan. The Nats are legit. They’ll need to prove that they can remain healthy, but Strasburg, Gonzalez and Zimmerman atop that rotation is scary.

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  15. He really really stepped up in 2001
    Tom Milone is 36-16 the last three years
    A.J. Cole hasn’t even filled out yet.
    nice stuff

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  16. Tweeted by BA’s Ben Badler: “Hearing good things on Phillies 16-yr-old CF Carlos Tocci out of Venezuela. Posted a .402 OBP in 29 games in the Liga Paralela.”

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      1. Cespedes could be a Philly…reports now say Yanks and Bosox are puling back…Marlins, Tigers, and both Chicago teams are the finalists left.

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  17. WHAT i read and heard is cespedes isnt major league ready and teams are not willing to pay what he is asking. did you see bowden comments on gazza he suggest the blue jays trade drabek and gose f or him , every gm makes a mistake in trades, the garcia trade was really bad, the thing that makes it so bad to me is no physical> why. at the time garcia for those prospects look good to me,The white sox pulled a fast one on us,they must have know his medical history,

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        1. yes…..Iguchi was a good late season pickup in ’07, but pls the reciprocal rate of return is not even close when yoyu compare Floyd and Gonzalez’ fate to date…..further Rich Dubee had to sacrifice his son to the White Sox org. in the deal.

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  18. While the Phils do most things right, they sometimes do things that are completely brain dead or has reason beyond baseball. It makes it hard to enjoy the good parts

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    1. I disagree. I had no problems enjoying the best record in baseball and Doc’s perfect game, for examples, even after trading Lee to the Mariners.

      The Phillies, like every team, make some decisions that are real head-scratchers (Nix falls into this category for me), but I wouldn’t say those decisions have ever made it difficult in the least to enjoy the quality they continue to churn out these days. And, as you pointed out, sometimes (possibly all the time, who knows), those decisions are made for reasons outside of the game of baseball. If that is the case, then bravo to the FO for making sure to take care of the little things in addition to keeping the juggernaut going.

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  19. “keeping the juggernaut going” Ok but the offensive drop was well below 2010, there is no more room to drop. Also much credit goes to the opps not a wimper out of any team in the east. Put it this way I am sick of the “secret society” tone of the Phils.
    Bowker is an example piling up major league time for no reason know to logical man.

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  22. funny thing is i met chris wheeler back in the early seventies, i used to work for a printing company that he was friends with the family and a couple of the employess, they went to school together, the part that was funny to me was wheeler, the owners son and another kid who went to same high school, had those comb over style hairdo

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  23. Cespedes….’Phillies are always sneaky’………….’Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports that the Marlins “are being very aggressive” on Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reported Friday that the Marlins might not pursue Cespedes as hard as originally thought, but Cafardo evidently is hearing differently. Cafardo adds that the Nationals are “right behind” the Marlins, the Phillies “are always sneaky” and the Cubs, Red Sox, and Yankees “appear intrigued by his tools.” Cespedes is expected to be granted free agency in the early part of January’. Source: Boston Globe

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    1. I understand the Cuban player to get is, I think…Toler ???? He is only 19 and would have been drafted in the top 5 players in his class of 2010, or 2009. He is much better than the widely advertised Cepsedes but very “toolsy” yet. Phillies rumored to be one of many interested. These Cuban players rarely make it – even a smaller % than one would think given the pool of talent.

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  24. if the cubs are serious about trading garza. would a package of brown, may and worley get it done or would they want more/

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    1. I think the Cubs would take that deal, but I wouldn’t offer it if I were the Phils. The importance of a 4th starter is always diminished come playoff time. I’d personally rather see the Phils dedicate their resources towards another bat or just retain that flexibity should a glaring hole be revealed by next summer.

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    3. Garza is also about to become expensive as he moves into his last couple of seasons on arbitration. Will probably get $8-$10M for 2012.

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  25. You guys are dedicated I’ll say that. I watched a lot of MLB network during the break and while I do like their programming it gets played out ad nauseum. They do some minor league profiles but man could they hit one out of the park with more minor league features by system.

    Cespedes video was on quite a bit and let me say I do not like his swing at all and do not think he is ready to see MLB pitching night in and night out.

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    1. No but the only way you do a deal like that is to get the Mets to take back Salary. Pull Worley from that deal and make them take either Blanton or Polanco.

      Unfortunately I think Wrights better days are behind him relative to his $

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      1. Brown, Aumont and Blanton/Polanco for Wright? Are you the Fantasy Football type who thinks a RB2 and two WR3s is a good offer for a RB1? Seriously dude, the Mets would laugh at that offer.

        I can’t see any ‘reasonable’ trade scenarios where Wright ends up in a Philliess uniform.

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        1. Eh.. what? Wright can barely earn his contract these days and if you trade for him you only get him for one year. Why in the world would the Phillies bother with this guy? I’d rather have Polanco at half the salary.

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        2. No offense, but you seem to be inhabiting bizzaro alternate reality where David Wright was never beaned by a baseball and had retained most of his superstar talent, instead of becoming a mediocre third baseman in decline. It’s certainly possible that the Mets might reject that trade, because they are a horribly mismanaged franchise, and because Wright is to some extent the face of the franchise. But in reality, that would be anunequal trade in the Mets favor. Brown alone would be much too much – a cost controlled young player with star upside. Add in Aumont, who is likely going to be at least a solid setup man, possibly a closer, and it would be a steal. Even setting aside Wright’s declining performance, he is not cheap and has only one year remaining on his contract.

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          2. Well I seem to be in the minority here, though that won’t necessarily sway my opinion. Larry, you’re presumptuous to think that David Wright’s career as a top third baseman is over. A ‘mediocre third baseman in decline’ is, at the very least, a below average third baseman. There’s hardly anything below average as far as Wright is concerned though.

            Wright missed 50+ games last year and he would have finished with 100 RBI or so if you project his performance over 162 games. I wish we could get a 3b who can drive in 100 during a down year. Wright also plays in cavernous Citi Field and he has consistently been more productive on the road since Citi Field opened.

            D Brown for Wright would be too much to give up? These trade speculations have just gone from funny to ridiculous

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            2. The real issue with Wright isn’t necessarily his play on the field (which has been in decline since the beaning) but rather the cost for that performance. David Wright is much like Chase Utley in that regard. Both are still productive players at their positions who are a benefit in a line-up but neither are $15M per season guys anymore.

              Add in that getting Wright based on the scenarios listed above also includes trading away young, cost controlled, ML talent and it’s a terrible deal for the Phillies.

              And Steve, citing Wright’s RBI total as an argument for his value is about the weakest measure you can use and I’m not a SABR guy. Raul Ibanez was 2nd on the team with 84 rbi in 2011. Was he their 2nd best hitter in 2011??

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        3. Honestly, this is just not a valid perspective. David Wright has not been a great player for 3 years. He is paid like a great player and he is only locked up for 1 or 2 more years (at a not great price).

          Just reflects a total misunderstanding of the value of pre-arb years.

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          2. Not a great player, but his 2010 was a very good season. Certainly better than anything we’ve had at 3B lately. 2011 wasn’t all that good. We’ll go with Polanco in 2012. Wright a possibility down the road. We can sign him as a FA for the 2013 season and give up no talent to get him. The Mets have an option, but unless Wright does really well in 2012, I don’t see the Mets picking up a $16 mill option. If the Phillies were to trade for him now, and I don’t think we can afford the $15 mill he’s making in 2012, we’d never pick up the 2013 option. The trade makes no sense, but no sense from Phillies standpoint. The Mets would be all over the suggested trade. Yes, he’s a big name in NY, but shedding close to $15 mill in salary is a very big deal for a team that is obviously going nowhere in 2012. If Wright isn’t traded at the start of the season, the Mets will be desperate to unload him at the trade deadline.

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            1. On a side note, tne thing to keep in mind, even about 2010, is that his defense is no longer any good. The analytical defensive stats aren’t as reliable as hitting metrics, but in this case, multiple metrics over multiple years show the same thing – he’s about 10 runs per year below average defensively. Polanco OTOH has been about 13 runs above average defensively over the past 3 years. One can make a credible argument that, over the 3 years as a whole, Polanco has been the better player. Wright still hit well enough that his 2010 season was better than anything Polanco has put up in recent years, and better than any Phillies’ 3B since Rolen, but the poor defense means it is less impressive than at first glance.

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            2. Phils wouldn’t have any choice about his 2013 option. It goes away if he’s traded. If they were to make a deal for him, he would be a free agent at the end of 2012.

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            3. Wright led NL third basemen in errors in 2010 and was second in 2011 (even though he only played 102 games)

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            4. Wright would love nothing better than to have his 2013 option picked up. He certainly isn’t going to get $16 mill as a FA.

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    2. Jon Heyman of SI has tweeted that there is no truth to the rumor that a trade is possible. Take that for what it is worth.

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      1. I don’t see a trade like this happening now for several reasons. For better or worse, Wright is the face of the New York Mets, an organization that is in a terrible bind because they currently stink and their ownership is under extreme financial duress. If they trade Wright, it will be a public relations nightmare and could have an immediate adverse impact on the team in terms of drawing fans. As such, the only way they could possibly make the trade palatable is by trading Wright for far more than he is worth. The need to extract a premium for Wright would be heightened if he were to be traded to the Mets’ most dreaded rival – the Phillies. I just don’t see the Phillies paying a huge premium for Wright at this point, although, with Ruben, anything is possible. In a perfect world, Worley, Aumont and Brown would be PLENTY of consideraton for Wright – in fact, if they did this trade, the Phillies would overpay for Wright, who has struggled recently. But, I agree that the Mets would probably not go for this package and would want more (like, for example, substituting May and Galvis for Worley). I like David Wright and think he is going to bounce back in a serious way in the next few years, but, right now, I don’t think he’s likely to end up with the Phillies.

        Of course, I’m the guy who told everyone to forget about the Phils getting Roy Halladay after the 2009 season, so what the hell do I know?

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  27. wright value to other teams is down, maybe your right that package wouldnt do it but I believe we have some prospects that would attract the mets. maybe brown, gavis, may and stutes something like that. what are we gaining is my question, both him and polanco have great gloves imo, wright has power while polanco has average, wright is young, this trade to me is a risky move , if we can make it.

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    2. Today the Padres got Carlos Quieten from the White Sox, this could be a good comp for a Wright trade. He hit very similarly to Wright, last year. Though more HRs, he probably had more ABs. They are both 29, although Wright plays an more important position defensively. Also Q makes much less money than Wright. The Sox got 2 minor league pitchers not as highly rated as they had been in the past . BA does not have either one of them in their Top Ten rankings this year, although both were more highly rated in the past

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  28. So Ruben left yesterday for a Caribbean ‘vacation’…..does anyone think he works on his vacations? Will he be making a stop in the DR to see Yeonis?

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  29. Worley completes the rotation. Unless you have a crystal ball and KNOW he is going south ,he stays. If he goes they will bring in another FA money maggot.

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  30. As I look at the team we need to get younger and better at 3B and LF. There is reason to be optimistic Mayberry will hold his own against lefties I would feel better with a left handed compliment somebody like Chris Coghlan or (and I doubt they would part with him) Seth Smith of the Rockies.

    For 3B I’d like to get C Headley again not sure if he is available and at what cost but I would definitely be asking about him. His numbers in CBP would be sick.

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    1. His numbers wouldn’t be sick because of CBP. They’d be sick because he’s not in Petco Park anymore. But you’re talking about a guy who is going to cost prospects we don’t have. It’s not likely at all. Also his career OBP isn’t much better than what Polly gave us last year.

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  31. At least there is promise for left field in Mayberry for now and lurking is Brown…who we all hope can get his athletic talents together and fill that position for the near future and beyond.

    I completely agree on 3rd base. It is now a gaping hole in the lineup: a good fielder but a weak hitter clogging the batting order. My hope had been that that problem would have been dealt with by now. To me it is THE issue for 2012 so far.

    Reuben has got to have it high on his agenda.

    We’re waiting; it would be a minor travesty to go into the season with Polly there. IMO, he is done as a starter; as an infield utility guy he could get some use out of his body…filling in here and there. That could help the team’s 2012 by resting some of the “older guys” in the infield…….2b, 3b.

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  32. The real trouble with signing extra marginal, one trick player like Nix early, is you close the door on better choices. Several signing and trades would fit better. While there is little chance of a prospect coming up big time in ST a crack should be available.

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    1. Nix is getting paid peanuts for his role as a 4th or 5th outfielder. What supreme talent is easily and cheaply available that we missed out on?

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      1. There isn’t one.

        He had two year offers from the Red Sox and some other team it was confirmed so he wasn’t overpaid. $2.5 million is a salary that you can cut easily. He’s a defensive upgrade over Raul Ibanez, and his offensive numbers were better than Ibanez (although both had horrible OBP’s).

        Against RHP last year: .263/.306/.475

        Ibanez against RHP
        .256/.307/.440

        I’d take production like Nix gave Washington (in a very neutral park… his power numbers should increase by a hair here).

        Also:

        WAR: Ibanez -0.6
        WAR Nix .08

        Ruben upgrade the team for $2.5 million over two years. Hard to complain about that..

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          1. There’s that too. He’s really just, like somebody else said, Ben Fransisco’s replacement. I think the goal is to have Mayberry start every day, with this guy just giving him a break against the righties he has no chance against (The Josh Johnsons, the Matt Cain’s, the Stephen Strasburg’s, etc).

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  33. Nix really doesn’t matter, and honestly i’m not sure how much wright would matter if the tales of his defensive short-comings are true. I’d MUCH rather the phillies pick up scott sizemore from the A’s… It would fill a long term hole at 3rd, he’s 26, should be entering his prime, and while his BA has never ecipsed .250, he’s barely had a full seasons worth of at bats in the majors, his minor league career was solid, and even with the low average, knows how to take a walk.

    Perfect fit IMO

    So, would a package of D Brown, Glavis/Aumont and Polanco get it done?

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      1. C’mon man…..Billy Beane is cash-strapped stuck…but not stupid….Nats deal could be a real steal in 2/3 years.

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    2. That’s an awful lot for Scott Sizemore. That’d be a huge overpay imo. You just said it yourself that he doesn’t even have a full seasons worth of at bats in the majors and you’re ready to trade 3 very good prospects and Polanco for him.

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      1. Take a look at players under 26 with atleast 300 AB’s at 3B in the majors last year… not a whole lot to pick from. While I’d prefer someone like mike moustakas, sandoval or longoria, those 3 would be more expensive, and in all honesty, I’m not sure if sizemore doesn’t have the potential to be just as good. Additionally, he provides excellent insurance at 2B for utley, becuase as much as i love utley, and during his prime IMO was a top 10 all time second basemen, I just don’t know what the hell is going on with his knees. A good 2B is harder to find then a good 3B. So maybe my package of prospects was more then needed, if BB is willing to give him up for less, i’m all about it.

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        1. He, Scott Sizemore, may be worth a gamble at a relatively cheap price…what did Detroit get in return? He reminds me of a poor man’s version of David Bell..not great..average.

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          1. That’s really what i’m talking about… SS had a 730 (can’t remember the exact number) OPS last year, really not bad for a first time starter. At 3rd that’s a little weak, but at 2B that’s great… additionally, say he shows improvement this year and posts a .780 OPS, he really starts to become valueable. I’m not saying he’s a shoe in all star, but i think you hit the nail on the head there, he’s worth a flyer on… could turn out to be a steal.

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            2. Gotcha. And Billy Beane is in the trading mode since Giants are blocking his move to San Jose and he could be had for little cost.

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      1. Maybe we don’t give up brown, maybe it’s a package of Polanco, Glavis and prospect ranked around 10 on our list. But I think you’re undervaluing sizemore, see my above post.

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        1. I’m not really undervaluing him. I liked Sizemore when he was with Detroit. I just wouldn’t give up Domonic Brown though. I’d rather save him for a bigger piece at the deadline after he reestablishes his value at.

          I don’t see what Beane would want with Polanco though. He wants young players back.

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      2. With Howard out for at least April and possibly to June, Mayberry will play a lot of first base with Thome (once or twice a week). Nix will be playing a lot in left field. Even with Howard out, they will be vulnerable to left-handed pitchers. Every time the Phillies played against Washington last year Nix was an automatic out, which is why we are all wondering why they signed him.

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        1. Yes because players should be judged on what they do against 1 team a couple of times in 1 year. I thought we added a good bit of platoonable players. So why should they be susceptible to left handed pitching. Against Lefties Mayberry can play left and Wigginton first. Against Righties you could have any combo of Mayberry, Nix, Thome. Of course none of these people are sexy names but they are all above average against opposite handed pitchers.

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          1. Think tight spot. Think pitching changes. Think postseason. Think Cholly. If it takes two players to complete a game your roster is virtually 24, Think low ceiling. Think falling ceiling. Think no real speed. The days of big leads in early innings are over.

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            1. Yes and the days of winning more games than those high scoring teams have been on the rise. The Phillies right now as a total package are much better than the 2008 Phillies. This is really not up for debate. So you can I suppose look to be lucky like the 08 team or build a team that you know will win a lot of games over the course of the season.

              Think being at the mercy of other teams to get into the playoffs. That’s what the Cards were this year. Are you suggesting the Phils build their team to be at the mercy of others when it comes to just making the playoffs.

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        2. I think it’s a huge mistake if they play Mayberry at first. He’s a much better defensive outfielder than Wigginton.

          Nix wasn’t an automatic out… he hit two home runs against Roy Halladay, he had that diving catch against Domonic Brown, he hit a home run against Roy Oswalt…

          With all due respect, a lot of guys look like easy outs when they face our rotation.

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        3. Fortunately, he won’t be facing the Phillies in 2012!!! As long as he’s not an automatic out vs. Atl, Wash, Fla, and NY he will be just fine as the 5th (let me repeat 5th) OF in 2012.

          Don’t fall into the trap of expecting the 13th man on the bench to be anything more than a replacement level player. If he was above replacement level, he would be making $$$ to be a starter somewhere.

          And as Chris points out, there were a lot of guys who were automatic outs vs the Phillies staff in 2011.

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  35. You kidding? This guy looks barely above replacement and you want to package a potential star along with other pieces?

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    1. If we’re talking the same article, Rumors references Brookover’s piece where Gomes, Hairston, Ross and Ludwick are mentioned as possible options. I don’t see any of these guys as a fit though. How about some speed in that 5th OF spot? At least until Howard returns.

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  37. Phillies OF is already seet with the signing of Nix and trade for Wigginton. With Mayberry, Pence, and Victorino, they already have 5 OFers. Unless the Phillies expect Howard to miss most of 2012 and they think on of those guys will need to play 1b, there’s no reason they would be looking at additional outfielders.

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    1. Someone will need to fill that slot while Howards is on the DL, and just as importantly, someone will need to be removed upon his return. I don’t see any of the guys Brookover mentions as a possible fit for Howard’s roster spot though and I think we’re more likely to have an open competition in spring training than another guaranteed contract to a free-agent

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  38. Dominic Brown… we’ve spent a whole lot of time talking about our other prospects on this site, and I understand why, under our standards d. brown isn’t a prospect anymore… but what is going on with this kid? he was the #4 prospect in all of baseball last year, he’s stationed in AAA for what could be the whole year, anyone want to take a stab at his slash line for the year? When and if he’ll be called up? I think James should do a post here just him, and what we all think of him.

    Last year his defense actually wasn’t as bad as it looked, in 200 PA’s he had a dWAR of -.6 and an oWAR of .6 for a net WAR of 0, not all that bad for a first time MLer… with 500 PA in AAA next year, I project a slash of .310/.400/.595… thoughts?

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    1. I think the more rational people on this site have been supporting Brown. Yes, he looked awkward at times last year and yes, he has a long way to go. But, for a young player, he did not have a bad year last year, particularly in light of the fact that he was recovering from a hand injury and he did not start regularly. Brown is very athletic, has good plate discipline and tracks a baseball as well as any power hitter I have ever seen. Brown can do something that I have never seen another power hitter do. He can adjust his hands mid-swing so that he gets the good part of the bat on the ball much like the best singles hitter (Carew, Boggs, Ichiro) do. Power hitters are not supposed to be able to do that. Brown can and that skill, combined with his athleticism and good plate judgment give him an enormous upside.

      I think the Phillies are going to play it cool with Brown this year and allow him to adjust fully to life at AAA before they promote him again. He does need to work on things and, by telling him he is going to be at AAA all year, they let him do so without too much pressure. However, it would not surprise me at all if he has a bang up year at AAA and gets regularly playing time beginning in July or August.

      And, by the way, the idea that superstars or even stars are supposed to arrive on the scene fully formed is ill-founded. Many great players start out slowly their first year or two – Brown’s development is not at all unusual particularly given his spotty playing time.

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      1. First off he is not a “YOUNG Prospect”. Secondly that long looped swing will never make consistent contact in the major leagues. Third, he looks like he never played the outfield before last year. You either have it or you don’t. DBrown does not have the “IT” factor.

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        1. The last time I heard this kind of negativity for such a talented player was for Mike Schmidt after he hit less than two hundred as a rookie and made some horrendous fielding plays. Somehow he found that “IT” factor. Give the kid a chance. I suspect that having Boras as his agent is the only mistake playing time won’t cure!

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          1. As I have stated Brown was hitting nearly .300 the month before the trade. Yes he didn’t handle the trade well or switching positions but to say he can’t hit when he did is ludicrous

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      2. Utter nonsense. I guess Roy Halladay didn’t have “it” when, as a young player, he had the highest ERA in modern baseball history. By your rationale Toronto should have dumped him and stopped wasting their time.

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        1. And Cliff Lee was sent back to the minors in Cleveland.at the age of 28. Guess he didn’t have “it” either..

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            1. More nonsense. Many would have said that Jose Bautista did not have “it.”. Or Alex Gordon or Adrian Gonzalez, who had a rough couple of years, or Sammy Sosa, who was traded several times before he got traction with the Cubs. People had the same complaints about Mickey Mantle when he was a young player.

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            2. Guess Mike Schmidt didn’t have “IT” based on his rookie year, neither did Shane Victorino, a rule V guy who was offered back. Check out guys like Paul Konerko, Michael Young, etc. Many very good players have had stuggling starts to their careers.

              Dom Brown will play the entire 2012 season as a 24 year-old. Hardly an “old prospect” He could play the full season in AAA and he would still be on the same schedule as were guys like Utley and Howard.

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    2. I love Domonic Brown. I think he’ll have a good career.

      I just want him to spend the year at AAA. Learn how to play left field and regain his confidence and come up mid season if Mayberry doesn’t produce.

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  39. Ryan Garvey left USC to a community college, do you think he wishes he signed with us?

    I’ve been one of DBROWN’s biggest critics but I’ll give him a pass for last year. I especially won’t kill him for his defense. He’s athletic enough to improve there. Having said that he’s not untouchable if he can bring me an upgrade at 3B.

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    1. Does a move to CC give him the option of being drafted in 2012? Not sure of the rules surrounding community college players.

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          1. Have to think he is regretting his decision. Unless he’s drafted within the first couple of rounds he’s unlikely to get a bigger offer under the new bargaining agreement than the reported offer from the Phillies.

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    1. I would steer clear of Cuban position players at those $$$. Their track record to hit in the MLB is really poor. Not to mention I’ve seen the video’s and they don’t mean jack as none of it pertains to hitting.

      If you seen the video of him hitting you might notice like I have that he has a really slow bat. I’m going to say Cespedes is a colossal bust as a big league hitter. As for this Soler I’ve not seen seen him play.

      I wouldn’t make a blanket statement and say don’t take a chance on a Cuban position player just that if the cost to take that chances is tens of millions no thanks. Chapman was a differerent story. The gun doesn’t lie and 100+ MPH is what it is.

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      1. I think you’re overly pessimistic, I think you’re right about Cespedes not living up to a 50 million dollar contract, but I wouldn’t say bust, he strikes me as a .250/.260 20 HR guy with above average defense. Not horrible, but not worth 50 million just to find out. As to Soler, he would be a top 5 pick in last years draft had he been in it, that said, is it worth 20 million? Maybe, if you’re a team like the phillies who NEVER have a realistic chance at signing such a blue chip prospect and have perhaps the second biggest payroll in baseball maybe you take a flyer at 20 million. That said, I think the phillies would also be better off signing 5 Tocci type players at a sum of say 5 million, but then again, those players are 16 and 5-6 years away from the majors, where as Soler probably has just as high a ceiling and is only 3 years out if things break right.

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        1. You’re right my use of the word bust is unfair to a 250/260 2 HR guy in a vacuum but relative to $50 is to big a risk for me. We’ll have to wait and see what a team actually pays for him.

          I’m looking for Value a comparitive contract would be Justin Upton and the D-Backs actually got to see him perform in the MLB before handing out that type of deal.

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    1. Agreed. Also, this is the last (?) year teams can take a chance on a guy like this without repercussions.

      As long as the price isn’t exceedingly high (like $20 million) I don’t see the downside… the Phillies can afford to waste the money on a bust.

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  43. Madson scared me to give him four years at 10-14 million, and it looks like a lot of teams feel the same way, ryan was terrific last year,but my gut tells me he isnt a top closer ,from past times i saw him. but would love to bring him back for a one year deal,.to be the eight inning guy instead of the seizmore and other guys mention one here. polanco could bounce back strong, the guy can field and is a proven hitter.

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    1. I disagree with your gut, and so does every stat in the book. What about Madson isn’t a top closer? His K/9, K/BB, GB/FB, and even his saves per chances (for those who believe that means anything) all paint the picture of an elite closer. Madson pitching with his eyes closed would be a better closer than Heath Bell, and yet people were still calling for us to get him last year and maybe even this offseason.

      I will never understand the vendetta a lot of Phillies fans have against Madson. He did everything asked of him and dominated opposing hitters. He never said anything bad about the Phillies. He gave them every chance to sign him back. Did he kick your dog or something?

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    1. Good insight on Cameron Rupp…..he could very well develop into a pretty good MLB catcher someday. He does fit the physique mold.

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    2. Thanks for the chance to give feedback on the interview Bryan. I was glad to read about his experience in college, but he has been a pro for two years and obviously suffered from a lack of work at his strength and future — catching. You touched on it in your interview, but emphasized a big negative for him, which is splitting time away from catching at first base and DH. You did not pursue enough the defensive weaknesses, which were exposed during his year at Williamsport and give him a chance to correct the perception. More depth about how he improved his hitting and if the bat change had anything to do with it would have helped.It would have been a great interview to have had more insight into those aspect.
      Thanks for doing this. I hope this is helpful.

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      1. P’head…What are you talking about…126 games in WPT and LKW…all catching. When did he play any first base?

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    1. I have a recurring nightmare in which Danny Espinosa continually thrusts a dagger in our collective hearts.

      Make no mistake about it, the Nationals and the Braves are very dangerous and the Marlins aren’t too bad either. Next year or two, this division will be competitive in the way that the American League East is competitive. And the Phillies better damned well get younger. The bullpen is a good start and trading Dom Brown away won’t make things any better.

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  46. By the way, when we, as Phil-centric fans, wonder why nobody is jumping at the chance to draft Cody Overbeck or Matt Rizzotti or even Jiwan James, you have to remember that really high quality, multi-talented and not so old players can be found without even having to surrender a player in a trade. Take, for example, Jai Miller, who was just sold from the A’s today. He seemes very intriguing and could have been had for, well, cash.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/milleja04.shtml?utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker&utm_campaign=Linker

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  48. Think you need to read the article with your cynicism turned off. Zoleski basically responded to the question by stating that the Phillies couldn’t really get younger offensively because everyone was already under contract except for SS and LF. They obviously didn’t get younger at SS but they did in LF by replacing Raul.

    He wasn’t trying to sell that the Phillies accomplished their goal, just stating the fact that they are younger in LF with Mayberry/Nix replacing Ibanez..

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  49. Said imo madson scared me, said he was terrific last year. but to say he is better than a bell now that is a crazy statement. based on one year of closing he is better than a proven 10 veteran closer. and as far as not saying something. didnt his wife say we dont live in philly in the off season. when someone said some negative things about him.

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  50. There was some carping about the Brian Schneider re-signing around here. I thought it was a good signing, nothing spectacular, but solid – his defensive value makes him an ideal backup catcher, and the contract was very reasonable. Here’s a small data point from an interview with Trevor May supporting that POV:

    Reddit: what has been your best experience with a big leaguer rehabbing with your squad?

    May: Talking Pitching with Brian [Schneider]. That guy is awesome to talk to

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  51. Phillies get some insurance and sign Joel Pinero today. He pitched 145 innings last yr w/some arm problems.

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