General Discussion: Week of 12 December 2011

Daily Discussion

The Rule 5 draft has passed. The long cold winter has begun. Things will be slow here over the next few weeks unless something major happens. I have some ideas for things I want to write about, but finding the time of late to sit down and do a thorough job has been tough. So maybe you’ll see a few shorter pieces that should spur on discussion, including a few “what to expect in 2012” editions. My plan is to start the Reader Top 30 at the beginning of January, which I believe is what we did last year. So, you can start thinking about your top 30 lists. As always, feel free to discuss whatever is on your mind here, and try to keep it somewhat prospect related if you can.

242 thoughts on “General Discussion: Week of 12 December 2011”

  1. It’s difficult to talk about the minor league prospects when the major issue still to be resolved is shortstop on the big club. Every article of late speaks about the likelihood he’ll be signed by the Phils, so the place seems to be settled for his presence on the ’12 team…leaving yet unsettled the amounts and years.

    It SEEMS that the team wants to be committed to no more than 3 years with a possible option for a 4th in their hands with a buyout if they don’t exercise the option. It seems to be a fair offer to me; I had previously opted to look to Galvis as a fall-back in case J-Roll’s demands became too high. It looks like the team has been using Galvis to represent that they had a real option in the wings…but it looks like J-Roll has not bought into that.

    Nevertheless, when the likeliest other suitor–the Cards–signed Furcal that possibility evaporated. So the shoe moves to the other foot now. By all reason, if the offer is as I said above, J-Roll needs to find the last bit of comfort now in a little give.

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    1. I’m somewhat concerned that Jimmy may feel slighted by this process and as a result, enter 2012 less motiviated than usual. He’s never been a hustle type of guy and his age is now becoming a factor. The last think we need is a feeling of being underpayed to contribute to his nonchalance.

      Here’s holping the 4th yr option is a team option instead of the vesting variety.

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      1. I don’t really see the lack of hustle. Not running down the line? I have no problem with that. That’s how he re-injured himself 2 years ago against Boston.

        Jimmy leaves everything on the field. Is he Chase Utley? No, and I wish Chase would scale himself back a little bit too. Jimmy’s a winning type of ballplayer.

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      2. Steve, maybe the lack of interest will have the opposite effect and make him want to prove everyone wrong. Otherwise I agree with you in that there will be a three year deal with a mutual option to help him save face and a higher per year pay than what he had. I also hope that whenever Freddie Galvis is ready that Rollins can slide over to 3B.

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  3. Whatever is going on the Furcal signing removes most of Jimmy’s leverage…

    In the game of negotiation its all about giving your adversary a way to save face when its clear you have them where you want them. RAJ has you Jimmy….just say yes!

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  4. I’m thinking Jimmy’s agent will be checking with San Fran, maybe one or two other teams in the next few days, likely turning up no new opportunities. Then a few days to knock out the contract. I will guess on Wednesday, Dec. 20 as signing day, 3 yrs, with some type of option for a 4th.

    Welcome home Jimmy, we hardly knew you (were gone).

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    1. SF…..how are they going to afford JRoll for a 4plus yr contract? Lincecum, Cain, and Zito alone will bring them to the brink.

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      1. They’re not, but his agent is stuck out in the wind with his pants down so he needs to do something to drum up interest: real or perceived.

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        1. bottom line….you don’t want to sign a beatened-down emotionally disappointed Rollins period…..how would you work and what would be your motivation level,on your job, when you know your employer got the best of you and you had no other recourse? Just do the minimum to get by….and is that what you would want from JRoll!
          DiamondDerby is spot on…..you must make sure you save him face.

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          1. I’d definitely be grumpy if I was forced to sign a $30+ mil contract to play a game with people I have become friends with over the past several years and a team that is likely to compete for a championship during the duration of the contract.

            He’ll get over it. Being on a winning team will heal all perceived wounds. Winning will be his motivation.

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          2. Jimmy will get over it. When the lights come on, Jimmy Rollins is ready to play. He wants to win.

            I’m sure the Phillies will have no problem overpaying him in terms of dollars, and maybe even throw him a bone and give him an option. They’ll reward him despite the market.

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        2. San Fransisco has pretty much gone public with the fact they can’t afford any thing other than a part time type of player so I’m sure if his agent tried you use them as leverage, the Phillies would see right through that.

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        3. Isn’t it amazing what happens when Amaro doesn’t jump the gun and let the market play out? We’re Rollins only option.

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  5. Thank goodness I am going nuts with shopping, decorating, parties, and stuff. The prospect and baseball convo is pathetic these days! Can’t wait to get to the Top 30. This wil be a big transitional year on prospects, with our big haul last year untested. It will be major fun to watch those guys get their first taste. Love to see Tyler Greene in W’port or L’wood (maybe both) in 2012. Back to Xmas stuff . . .

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  6. Phillies traded Ben Fransisco to the Blue Jays for Frank Gailey… I guess you might as well get something if you’re going to non tender a guy.

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    1. Gailey won’t be on our Top 30 but getting something for Little Ben is fine. It seems there’s a spot open on the roster for Rollins and Bowker lives another day.

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      1. Bowker is really interesting. The statistics suggest he can really hit. I like that he’s in the mix along with some other low cost options. Good plan.

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          1. I hope that’s satire. You know, nowheels, the man played professional baseball for eight years before he came to your attention last fall. There is no reason to judge him solely on the 13 miserable at bats he had as a Phillie.

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            1. How about judging him based on his 622 major league plate appearances in which he’s hit .232/.283/.382?

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  7. I have a top 50 list that I continue to play with. With the three drafted SSs last year, I wonder if they would start Tyler Greene and/or Mitch Walding at Lakewood to get them at bats with one moving to or starting at WSport and Quinn probably starting at GCL. They’ll want all three to get plenty of at bats and innings at SS. I’m also wondering whether they’ll start Larry Greene at Lakewood, maybe after a short delay. As has been stated before, the CWater offense doesn’t look too good on paper but you never know. In two more months, we’ll be counting down the days to spring training. Let’s go Jimmy, accept the obvious.

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    1. The interesting aspect is that 3/4 are supposed SS. T Greene without a doubt. Whether or not Quinn and Walding can stick at the position will be interesting to watch. Having said that I don’t expect any of them to start at Lakewood.

      I’ve got both Greenes in my top 10

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    2. I have T. Greene at Lakewood, Walding at Williamsport, and Quinn at GCL. Of course, a lot will depend on how they do in ST. They have a similar choice to make with Franco, H. Martinez, and Valenzuela at third base. Franco should be at Lakewood with Martinez at Williamsport. They may want Valenzuela’s bat at Clearwater, which may also mean shortstop given Duran’s many errors and weak hitting. Barnes seems to be in position at third at Reading with Rivero moving to LHV. Can’t wait for March.

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        1. I thought about Black. Greene hit better. The other two are rated higher. Black may very well end up as shortstop in Lakewood. He is older and more experienced, but he did not use that advantage last year. We’ll see. I wish them all well.

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  8. Ben Francisco traded to the Blue Jays for non 40 man roster player/ reliever Frank Gailey of the Blue Jays. Since Gailey was drafted in 2007 he was available to any team in the Rule 5 draft. Teams must have known that Ben Francisco was going to be non tendered so Gailey must have been the most the Phillies could have gotten. Any one have any prospect info about Gailey?

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    1. Now I see the logic… He replaces Andy Loomis who was lost in the rule 5 draft and of course saves some money on Ben (if he was going to be kept). Both Loomis and Gailey are small guys. Gailey’s listed at 5’9″… Loomis coudn’t have been much bigger. And they are both lefties.

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  10. Francisco really didn’t have a spot on the roster with Mayberry taking on his role, so it’s good to see that we got someone in exchange.

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  11. Seems to me the Phillies picked up a player who specifically wouldn’t take up a roster spot. Which in exchange for a non-tender candidate makes a good deal. Glad we got a local kid who’ll like playing in Pennsylvania.

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  12. Gailey isn’t a prospect, so I’m not going to write about him here. But Francisco was a non-tender candidate, so we got a penny for him instead of zero, and that’s something I guess.

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    1. Certainly not a prospect in conventional terms, but he’s been quite dominant while averaging 8.7 Ks and 2 BBs per 9 innings over his minor league career and a WHIP barely above 1 (1.032). Solid numbers, although the Jays were very patient in testing him at higher levels. At 26, he might break with LHV so the brass can see what they have in him.

      I couldn’t find his splits though

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      1. His splits at Dunedin in the Florida State League (High A) where he pitched well show a .191 average against right-handed hitters and a .131 average against left-handed hitters. It looks like lots of ground balls against lefties GO/AO of 2.44! Unfortunately, no splits from his Eastern League (AA) stint in which he pitched poorly (5.70 ERA).

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    2. They were simply just dumping salary when trading Francisco. The question now is if that was a reaction to signing Nix, or if it will be an effect of signing another OF like Cuddyer, Kubel or Willingham.

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  13. Gailey’s still local, working a bit with HS students under Pete Filson (my son’s pitching coach) in Bala Cynwyd during the winter.

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  14. I think Amaro has woked the Rollins angle well.
    The fact no other teams have made any strong plays for him should help avoid the issue of him being too slightled. He may be disappointed, but if Amaro offers him a better deal than any other team would, he can’t be too annoyed with the Phillies. He just needs a little introspection.

    I for one will be glad that he is back, so long as the contract is reasonable, which now appears it will be the case.

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    1. If I were the Phillies, I would take an approach similar to the one the Eagles took with Brian Westbrook a few years back. They should have a very reasonable base contract (3 years, $11-13 million a year – 4th year team option with a reasonable buyout) with incentives that make it a potentially outstanding agreement knowing that, in all likelihood, J-Roll won’t reach many of those incentives.

      I am surprised other teams are not more interested in Rollins. He has his flaws, but he’s a pretty damned good player.

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    2. RAJ has played the Rollins thing well. He also could have played the Madson thing well and imagine we could be getting Madson now for maybe 3 years and $30M instead of Paplebon for what 4 years and $50M? I agree Papelbon is better than Madson but I like the above terms for Madson better. He moved to quickly again, just like with Ibanez and Polanco, not to mention Blanton.

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  16. Hey Guys, check out my interview with baby ace Jon Pettibone http://bit.ly/u96WQh and let me know what you think! This is my blog’s third interview (Kevin Frandsen and Eric Pettis), and we’re looking to get the word out about it.

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  17. No comment necessary One of the best moves never made.
    “The Marlins also agreed to a one-year deal with utility infielder Donnie Murphy, avoiding arbitration, and signed Aaron Rowand to a minor league deal. The Giants, who designated Rowand for assignment last season, still owe him $12 million in 2012. The Marlins would only be responsible for the $480,000 major league minimum if he makes the team”.

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    1. Didn’t the Tigers also throw in a pouch of chewing tobacco and a bag of used balls? at least that was something useful.

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  19. MLB network just reported Phillies have signed Dontrell Willis. I guess he will be insurance for both Worley and Blanton and may mean they don’t tender Kendrick because he would fit the same roll, long BP guy and spot starter.

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    1. They said he would be a bullpen guy and I’m guessing a LOOGY. Which if you look at his splits against lefties that is a fantastic idea.

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    2. I love the Willis signing. Another low risk, medium upside signing designed to add depth to the team. By the way, signing Willis also has the incidental benefit of helping draw Rollins back into the fold – I understand that Rollins and Willis are childhood chums.

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    3. This will probably take Savery out of the mix although he’ll get his shot in training Camp. I don’t think they need 3 lefties in the bullpen.

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    4. I like this move because it keeps the young arms in AAA with their bag packed for any injuries (which are bound to happen). As much as I think Schwimmer, DeFratus, Aumont, and Savery are ready they can all use innings and being the last guy in the pen isn’t going to help them. I would like to see Savery especially get stretched out enough that he can easily handle 2 inning stints and show that he may be more than a LOOGY. As people get injured they can move up and slot into the big league bullpen (this likely the last season of Contreras, Herndon, and Kendrick (at least in the pen)

      Kendrick while probably overpaid is great insurance in that he can be a good spot starter and with the top three guys going deep into games he is insurance for the nights when Worley and Blanton are slightly off.

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      1. As much as I hate to say that we need Kendrick – frankly, we do. Here’s the silver lining, however. If Kendrick continues to pitch competently (and I expect he will) and it turns out that we don’t need him, it will be very easy to trade him mid-season or even during ST. Somebody is going to need a competent 5th starter/innings eater during the year – this need arises each and every year in the major leagues.

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      1. He can definitely hit. In fact, I am pretty confident that, had he started out in the minors as an outfielder, he’d be a major leaguer right now and a pretty darned good one. I saw a game about 5 years ago where he put a pitch in the upper deck at CBP. It was easily one of the hardest hit ball I’d ever seen – like a Jim Thome or Ryan Howard home run – my son and I were in disbelief.

        I am all in favor of making him the last pinch hitter off the bench when other options are exhausted and he’s not slated to pitch. If you had him and Savery on the same staff it would really get interesting.

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    7. At this stage of the game Kendrick is a much better pitcher than Willis. I don’t think this will go past Spring Training.

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  20. Midnight on Dec. 12 was the last day to non-tender and Kendrick has already been tendered , and also Valdez. Word is, and should be, that Willis will be another LH relief pitcher along with Bastardo.

    As far as Frank Gailey goes, seeing that he is 26 and not been above AA, the value is long shot .
    Got him after the Rule 5 Draft, maybe it was planned like that.

    Also, now that the compulsories are out of the way, and they have not completed the deals for cash, they may now send a player to complete the Bowker trade, and depending on what the poorly written trade report really says, the Wigginton trade also.

    Somebody above says Harold Martinez back to Williamsport. I don’t think so. Martinez will likely go to Lakewood, and even if Franco starts at 3B, either Martinez will DH and alternate there, or go to 1B, where they have negligible prospects, and alternate at DH with Stassi or Christopher Duffy or whoever they put there.

    I got Taylor Black at SS in Lakewood. All of the most recent (as of now) draftees will go to Williamsport, along with some GCL promotees , The GCL squad will be promotees from Latin America and MAYBE one or two lower level draftees and new signings.

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  21. Interesting the extent to which the major league roster is now set. SS aside (and does anybody doubt that it will be Rollins?), as I see it they are set except for: (a) someone to take Howard’s spot while he is on the DL (either someone already in the organization or someone who will be signed to a minor league contract) and (b) the 7th reliever (almost certainly one of DeFratus/Schwimmer/Herndon or Aumont).

    Assuming Rollins signed to a decent contract, I’d give Amaro a “B” for the off season. I’ll elaborate on that at some point – after the Rollins signing, probably. (Though I suppose we should also wait until the Hamels contract situation is resolved.)

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    2. My vote is for DeFratus. Herndon, I hope, will go down to learn how to pitch to lefties; perhaps adding a GOOD change-up. Aumont needs some more time at LV to hone his command, and Schwimm shows the same inability to pitch to lefties, well.

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  22. Note that, despite being a Francisco fan, and not that impressed with Nix, honestly the fact that Nix is left handed, combined with likely similar contract amounts, is enough to make Nix the marginally better choice. Francisco is overall a better hitter, though, by a comfortable margin (Nix the better fielder). And, despite last year’s failure, Francisco would be a better choice if injuries hit and we need someone to step up temporarily into a regular role.

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    1. Even without using modern metrics, on a career basis they have identical SLG% but Francisco has a 44 point edge on OBP. That’s huge.

      But again, given the left/right issue, and factoring in defense, Nix was probably the right call. Not a good hitter overall, though. A .288 career OBP for a corner OF is pretty atrocious.

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      1. I think the superior defense gives Nix the edge. That’s no small thing, especially since most defensive metrics (as well as my naked eyes) suggest that Victorino is quite overrated as a defender in CF. Either he or Mayberry can cover some ground in left, which will help to close the gaps. I’m still holding out some hope that we’ll see Domonic Brown in left field at some point next season, in which case having a plus outfield defender on the bench will be much more important.

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        2. Questioning your call about Vic’s defense as overrated. Didn’t he win the best center-fielder award just a year or so ago? Has his defense deteriorated since then, or do you believe his award was invalid…for baseball-political reasons.

          Keep in mind that he not only covers a lot of ground with his speed, that he rarely misjudges balls hit, and his better arm often prevents base-runners from taking that extra base.

          So….what’s not to like?

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          1. Looking at his defensive stats from 2009-2011 on Fangraphs, Victorino is a middle-of-the pack defensive center fielder, both in terms of traditional and advanced metrics. http://bit.ly/s67V13. I recognize that the defensive stats are flawed, but that’s a lot better way of judging him than the fact that he won a Gold Glove. But maybe I’m just biased because the last image I have from him last year is falling down and throwing a ball backwards on Berkman’s double in Game 4.

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            1. There is of course still a gap between an average center fielder and a bad one. My view, the Phillies allowed just 529 runs last year. I have a hard time believing that was possible if Victorino was a terrible center fielder.

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            2. I don’t remember anyone saying Victorino is a terrible fielder. Just that he is overrated.

              His main problem is that he takes poor routes to balls and doesn’t often get a great jump. He makes up for these problems with speed. I would say overall that he’s a little above average as a defensive centerfielder.

              As far as his Gold Glove goes that award is fraudulent. Rafael Palmeiro once won a Gold Glove after only playing 28 games at the position. Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Nate McLouth, and countless other undeserving players have won Gold Gloves in the past. I put absolutely zero stock in this award.

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            1. There was a time they meant something… but the past 15 years they have pretty much become a joke. Its a popularity contest and the best guy often doesn’t win. In fact, sometimes the winner is downright poor in the field. Every year when they announce the awards you can find a whole host of articles analyzing which were properly awarded, which were poor choices and which were not the best choice but still good selections.

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            2. Just because they get it right in some cases does not mean they get it right in every case or even often.

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    2. There was a very hidden lost opportunity this week. The Phillies probably had a chance to add Casey McGehee for not much cost in players or salary (he’s probably going to get around $3 million or so). He may never return to his prior form, but I bet he does. If he starts playing well again, he would have been a perfect middle term solution at third base. But, hey, why get him now for little cost when we can acquire him at the trade deadline for Trevor May?

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        1. Well, first off, Casey McGehee isn’t Wes Helms. McGehee admittedly had a crappy season last year, but in the two preceding years he played to a 2 and 3.3 WAR – nothing to sneeze at – and he’s still pretty young (Helms was always a borderline AAA player, never having played to more than a 1.2 WAR and often at a negative WAR). Also, defensively, he is average whereas Helms is a bad fielder.

          Second, they could have gotten him for next to nothing.

          Third, he is probably going to make about $1.5-2 million this year. He is a relatively low risk, fairly high upside option at a position where they are vulnerable and offers the type of power they so desperately could use.

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          1. Problem with McGehee is that he’s another one position player who is below average defensively. Unless you are advocating jettisoning Polanco or replacing Thome with McGehee, then McGehee just becomes another bench player who would severely limit options for the line-up.

            Thome is already taking up the role as the Pinch hitter on the bench and one spot goes to Schneider as the backup catcher. Add in McGehee and now you have a 2-man bench (Nix and Valdez) left to cover all 3 OF positions as well as 2b/SS.

            I

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  23. Speaking of Martinez, it seems that he must get his offense in gear soon because there are footsteps behind him for 3rd base. They took him early in the ’11 draft hoping, I think, that since he is a college draftee his progress through the system would be accelerated. As we know, 3rd base is a gaping hole at/near the MLB level but with the “gang” of infielders chosen in that draft and Maikel, etc. pushing, Martinez has to get his hitting carry-over from his poor college showing resolved soon or fall by the wayside.

    Personally, I believe that T. Greene represents the most likely 3rd baseman out of those drafted assuming Quinn does shortstop well. Though Martinez fields the position well, his power is needed at that position; the chance taken by drafting him must have been taken with an eye and feeling to “cure” his downward trend offensively in college which the scouts/coaches thought they can fix. So, IMO this will be a telling season on Martinez; if he doesn’t show signs of progress, he could be left in the dust…since this will be his 3rd season-including college-in successively poor offense.

    Here’s wishing him a quick full recovery at the plate.

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    1. Can’t argue too much. They valued potential over known quantities and devalued the relievers. The things is I think it is the top 3 and then 4-12. You can argue them around in any order, and I think everyone but possibly DeFratus could break out into something really special (even J-Rod if he puts up the same stats and adds maybe 1-2mph).

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      1. I might be in the minority, but I just don’t see Jiwan James becoming anything special. Of course, I’ve never seen him play in person, but that’s just my sense of things.

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        1. I don’t think he will be something special, the thing is though he has maybe 2% chance to be a superstar and 5% chance to be an All-Star. People with those tools don’t grow on trees but if you are the phillies and you take a bunch of these guys and occasionally you get a franchise player. However most of these guys just flame out and each year James looks more like a 4th OF, but as long as the tools as there he will continue to be hyped (think a worse version of BJ Upton that everyone just drools over the upside).

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          1. I still think you are being unduly optimistic. At 22 in high A he still hasn’t given any hint at all that those tools will translate into major league hitting tools. IMO there probably is less than a 7% chance that he becomes a major league regular at all, let alone an all star or superstar. I don’t care how good his fielding is, even a GG caliber center fielder has to hit a little to be major league regular.

            The Upton comp is revealing. Look at the man’s minor league numbers; he performed much better than James at a much younger age/level. For example, as a 20 YO in AAA, he hit .303/.392/.490.

            Yes, I know James got a late start. I have never seen any evidence that such players have an unusual development profile. Lost years are lost years, whether because of injury, position change, or merely slow development.

            IMO he has about a 45% chance of an eventual bench role, 5% chance (I think I am being generous) of being a solid or marginal regular, and less that a 1% chance of ever being more than that.

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            1. I’ve been a staunch James defender. I think Larry is being quite pessimistic. I look at James as having something like a 75% chance of being a backup outfielder in the majors. Plus defense, 30 SB a year, he could do it now. The hitting is a bit below league average. It’s not great, but it’s not terrible either. 3upkkk mentioned Anthony Hewitt below and that’s way off base. Hewitt’s hitting is so bad that if you were playing for a minor league pennant that mattered, you’d bench him. James is still a net positive to his teams.

              Now if his hitting never flourished, if he gave you a .690 OPS in the majors, there are a dozen guys who have averaged that (+/- 20 points) the last three years and had major league careers. Franklin Gutierrez sticks out as a comp. If the defense is good, that’ll get you a career.

              If he does improve, he’s an MLB starter easily. And the odds of that are what? 4:1? 6:1? I think he’s a LOT better than having a 20:1 shot of being a marginal regular.

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            2. Alan, I agree that James is better than Hewitt but it’s not as big of a gap as you state.
              Both are 22, James is at high-A ball whill Hewitt in in Low-A.

              Jame’s slash line – .268/.327/.363/.690
              Hewitt slash line – .240/.281/.405/.687

              Hewitt stole more bases and had a much better success rate. James hits for a better average while Hewitt has more power. Both players strikeout too much for being “speed” players.

              My point is that many seem to think that James is on the cusp of breaking out while Hewitt is a total bust but neither is putting up numbers that indicate they are going anywhere and I would argue that both players have little chance of becoming major league players.

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            3. Alan,

              What we could use in this discussion is data as to the chances of a guy who OPSs .690 as a 22 year old in high A ever OPSing .690 in the majors. Actually, such data does exist, but much of it is not available to the general public, and what data is available is generally behind pay walls that I am too cheap to access. But I’d wager that few such players make it to the majors, and fewer manage to duplicate that OPS in the majors.

              I agree that if he can OPS .690 in the majors he can be a regular, albeit a marginal one even with plus defense and plus base running skills (and the jury on the latter is still out even given his plus speed). I just don’t think that it is at all likely that he’ll do that. Of course he is way ahead of Hewitt; that’s why he has a decent chance of a major league career, whereas Hewitt is no longer a prospect.

              If he was a year or two younger, things might be different. I think what a lot of people are doing is giving him a pass because of his late start as a position player, and are comparing him to players who perform at that level at an earlier age. A 20 year old with his blend of tools and performance would be an exciting prospect. I just don’t think that that is a legitimate way to look at him.

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        2. You don’t have to have a special bat to be valuable as a pure CF, and James gets good reviews for his defense.

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          1. Looks like he will have to get in line for keen competition if he is ‘valued as a pure CF’….Gillies, Mitchell, Hudson, Altherr, Collier….am I missing anyone?

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            1. James is the best defensive outfielder in the organization. Possibly better than Victorino. (Please note I am ONLY referring to defense.)

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            4. Having watched most of these guys play, I can say that James is better defensively in CF than anyone else in the organization (I know that some of their minor league pitchers agree with me), including Victorino ( who can’t throw anymore). He glides after balls taking good paths plus he has a terrific arm as a former pitcher. Unfortunately, watching him hit makes you scratch your head because he has ability but the results arent there yet and may never be.

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            5. Don’t pay much attention to gold gloves. They are just a popularity contest. Look no further than Rafael Palmiero winning one when he only played 28 games at 1B, Derek Jeter winning one let alone 4 or Bobby Abreu winning one period.

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            6. Anon1, what reason is there to doubt James’ defense? He consistently grades as exceptional on scouting reports and his teams lead the league in run prevention.

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          2. Do not doubt, James’ defensive abilities, he is an exceptional OF woth all the tools….but putting him in the Phillies today lineup and say he is a better CF then Victorino could be a stretch, for that is what you are doing when you say he is better then Victorino. Understand, Vic is 30/31, so he has eroded a bit in CF but to the extent that he is now considered below Class-A OFs.

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            1. The defensive prime for speedy outfielders like that is often in their first half of their 20s. Consider someone like Andruw Jones who his first 5 years or so had to be the best defensive outfielder I have ever seen. But by 30 he was average in CF and now he cannot even play it anymore.

              Now Victorino was never as good as Jones at his peak and has aged more gracefully… but there is still no denying that at 31 he isn’t as good as he was at 28 in the field. Thats no knock, he’s still pretty darn good. While I’ve never personally seen James roam the field I won’t discount the possibility that he may now have more range than Victorino given his stellar scouting reports.

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        3. Don’t think your in as much of a minority as you think. I also think he is being overrated and the fact that he was left unprotected and went unclaimed in the rule V draft reinforces that opinion.

          To date, he’s proven to be a very good defensive player who doesn’t hit enough even in A-ball. Sounds a lot like Anthony Hewitt to me !!!

          Like

      2. I’m with you. I can’t argue this too much. I could debate some minor adjustments such as I like Defratus more than Aumont. But that’s nitpicking. I was surprised a little that someone else had Bonilla that high. I’ve liked him for years and tried to slot him in my top 30 last year. I also will have trouble putting the guys who haven’t played professionally like Larry Greene and Roman Quinn that high. I have to see something before I anoint them the next big thing. I know… i know. It’s a prospect list but they’ll start a little lower on my list.

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        1. It’s interesting that they Left Ty Greene off the list. I had said earlier in the week both Greenes make my top 10 and Quinn is 20 on my list because I don’t believe he sticks as a SS. My argument for putting guys up that high on potential is simply that they have not done anything to prove they don’t belong. I prefer to let them play their way up or down.

          I like to reserve my top 10 for guys that can really be special at the next level.

          I also like Bonilla a lot. I have him #11.

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  25. Rumor has it a new team is in on Rollins. Looks like all the leverage is back in Rollins favor. With a new team and furcal and ramirez off the market, All of the sudden it looks like the Phillies plan b’s have dried up. Great move by Rollins agent or just an odd coincidence?

    Like

    2. Jayson Stark thinks it is Detroit. What a line up 1-5 the Tigers would have. Rollins/Jackson/Young/Cabrera/Martinez

      Like

      2. I would love for Rollins to go to Detroit and watch him swing for the fences only to watch the ball get caught around the warning track. If he leaves then we can sign one of the few stopgap SS’s available and then sign Michael Cuddyer. This would shake the core up and take Charlie out of his comfort zone.

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        1. Except for the fact that cuddyer doesn’t play any of the positions we need him to.He’s a RF/1B. Where is he going to play on this team for more than half a season? 3 years of Cuddyer would be a complete waste of money. Also shaking up the core may not give you the intended effect you seek. They could all end up pissed that Rollins was not brought back, who has been the one constant for every player on the team. Who would be the vocal leader for the team?

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          1. Cuddyer has played 3B and you can sub Polonco in the late innings for the Cuddyer question and could be the equivalent of ARAM. Do you want a unhappy Rollins on the team being the vocal leader? Shane Victorino can evolve into that role in my opinion.

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            1. Shane Victorino is going to be gone after this year. Besides Shane is vocal but I wouldn’t call him a leader. Cuddyer cannot play 3rd base regularly. He played 100 innings in 2010 and before that hadn’t played it since 2005. Any plan where Cuddyer has to play 3B regularly is not realistic.

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            2. Saying Cuddyer has played 3b is like saying that Jim Thome has played 3b. He may have played there but he’s NOT a third baseman. He’s not close to Ramirez at the position and Ramirez is below average.

              Like

    3. The thing is though that the Tigers have a starting SS that is younger and pretty good in his own right. Where are they going to put Jimmy? And I still think no team is going to give him 5 years. If someone was that interested he’d be signed already.

      Like

  28. Just booked the spring training hotel and bought game tickets for a couple of games, spring can’t be too far off… I have to figure out when the minor league spring training games start, probably the 12th or the 19th. Anybody else have Rupp in their the top 20? I have him at 17 on my current, everchanging, list. I just have a hunch about the guy plus he’s huge and plays a premium position.

    Like

  29. Tyler Greene is the best SS in the Draft this year. He is a rare 5 Tool talent that is very under rated defensively. He is a potential 30 – 30 Gold Glove SS. At the Fall Instructs the level of talent was a glaring difference from others you mention as potential SS’s.

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    1. Yeah I’m going to be watching his development the most out of all the prospects next year. Him and Franco.

      Like

  30. Awesome. Also all booked. We’re in March 16-25. Planning a big pub crawl for St. Patrick’s Day on the beach. Gonna be fun. Who’s in?

    Like

  31. Looking like Madson and Rollin’s to the Red Sox. Rube, don’t fet caught with your pants down. Money is no object and they have been quiet. Should have signed Ramirez and let Jimmy walk anyway. We need an upgrade at one of those positions.

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    1. Red Sox still have Marco Scutaro and just signed Nick Punto to back him up. Plus they are more so looking for a stop gap until Jose Iglesias is ready to man short. Rollins doesn’t seem like a fit there

      Like

  32. Too late now. At best the offense will mirror last year and that is only if they sign Rollins and the big guy is right by June especially given the manager mind set.

    Like

    1. Why would you assume that? At best they’re the same as last year? As best I can figure it, the best possible outcome involves not only signing Rollins, but promoting Brown to play LF and then proceeding to have every player on the roster have the best season of their careers. If that happened, we’d have players with .300+ averages and 30+ HRs, plus more than a couple with 30+ SB from 1-9.

      Having the same players does not mean having the same production. Especially if Utley doesn’t suffer any injuries during the season next year. Sometimes non-moves are the best moves and we should wait and see how our guys do. Our pitching can carry us through the entire season if need be.

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      1. I quess it is the half full/half empty thing but you didn’t account for Howard. I am an Utley fan but “self made” player flame out quickly and he has exceeded all his like. Rollins you would hope to match last year if he signs. Everyone is down on Brown but I see more like management pulled the rug out from under him. We all appreciate Pence but from Browns view point after having a near .300 month it must of been a total surprise, Anyway I hope I am wrong. But frankly anyone who is excited by the winter additions needs a objective redo.

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        2. Phils biggest problem last year was their bench. The bench was upgraded in a big way. Wiggington is superior to Miny mart. Those 200+ abs were awful. Thome over Gloud, nix over bfran. Phils actually may have a LOOGY now in Willis. These little things are huge, IMO.

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          1. LOOGY’s are useless. To use a pitcher for one out means you not only burn the pitcher he is replacing, you’re also replacing the LOOGY afterwards. It burns two roster spots. I’d rather see Bastardo, Savery or even Willis just pitch a full inning. (And I do think Willis can thrive in the bullpen.) I just detest the term. There’s no reason to use a pitcher in that fashion anymore.

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            1. Sure wish I saw Scott Eyre in there against Matsui. Could’ve been a whole different game. Cardinals sure looked good flipping lefties/ eighties every batter or two in the playoffs.

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            2. Not necessarily. RPs are often unable to pitch due to frequent work. It would make plenty of sense to keep Dontrelle in the dugout on days he wouldn’t pitch anyway.

              I expect to see him get some PH appearances this year

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        3. I would certainly have liked a bigger acquisition by this point in time, but let’s be honest, the offseason isn’t nearly over yet. In addition to that, I truly did not like this free agent class. Not for any of our needs, anyway. SS was predictably thin. 3B was even worse. Not any particularly attractive corner OF’s, either. We didn’t need it, but SP was also thin. If we were to get anything this offseason, I fully anticipated it would be via trade, and there is still a lot of time for that.

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  33. Please remember that this is a 102 win team that some of you want totally overhauled. This is a pitching first team now that needs good fielding and timely hitting. Yes they looked old and tired, and were injured, in the playoffs but a better bench and the hope that Charlie will actually go to it should help. Howard will be fine by playoff time, the question is whether Utley and Polanco will remain or at least be healthy at year end. A full year of Pence and the Mayberry/sometimes Nix in LF are improvements and will help. Also, Utley may never again be the Utley of old but I’m betting that he’ll be much better next year after having a year of working out and figuring out how to be successful with a new swing, forced on him by his knee condition. Stop hoping for Cuddyer, that ship sailed. The Phils are done with signing players, except for Rollins and possibly another reliever if Contreras says he’s done in January after he throws for the first time, because the rosater is full.

    Like

    1. If Contreras retires does his $2.75 go off the books or stay on since it’s guaranteed? Talking about it as applied to the luxury tax.

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  34. I for one hope they are not done. Let’s face it the bench was exposed because we had an older injury prone line-up. Even if Howard is healthy by mid to late summer, even if Utley is better, even if Rollins comes back this line-up still lacks the punch to win in the WS.

    Yeah we’ll pitch our way to the playoffs most likely but RAJ needs a key acquisition at either 3B or LF. Please tell me what difference a full year of Pence and Mayberry is going to make in Oct? Sheesh we seen this movie 2 years in a row do we really want to see it again.

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    1. I also happen to agree that the state of the team’s offense is worrisome, but I’m curious:

      (a) Upon what basis you think that a significant upgrade at either position is realistic at this point, given payroll concerns combined with the relative lack of tradeable prospects?

      (b) Don’t you think that the team’s actions speak for themselves? Some of their moves make no sense if one assumes that they are pursuing a “blockbuster” type move for a left fielder or third baseman.

      Moreover, not to beat horse that’s been sufficiently beaten already, but focusing your concern on two playoff series is, as has been pointed out by many, a dramatic sample size issue. Concerns about the offense are real, but not because of 7 games in October over a 2 year period.

      And finally, even with offensive concerns being real, “this line-up still lacks the punch to win in the WS” is silly. The many examples to the contrary could fill a long post, but you only need to go back a year to find a big one.

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    2. Giants didn’t have much punch…Ross, Pat the Bat and Posey..Sandoval was hot and cold in Sept and Oct. Then there was Edgar Renteria.

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    3. Funny thing is that the Phillies actually outscored the Cardinals in their series so I wouldn’t say the Cardinals had significantly more punch in 2011. They just managed to win a couple of 1-run ball games in a 5-game series.

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      1. ‘timely hitting’….thats all I ever hear from the coachs and players…..’Good pitching, good defense and timely hitting’….not good hitting.

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        1. Timely pitching would have helped, too. Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt came up small when the season was on the line

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        2. If the fan favorite ace could have held a 4-0 lead nobody would be complaining about the offense.

          I personally love the offseason moves the Phillies have made so far. Jim Thome and Ty Wigginton are solid additions and the combined platoon splits of Mayberry/Nix are outstanding.

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      2. and they outscored the Giants in 2010 but still lost the series. There’s no doubt that we ‘give away’ too many at-bats, but I don’t think the offense is as bad as many indicate. For one, the complete offense has barely been on the field the past two years. Our bench, now filling a more prominent role, lacked versatility and was challenged offensively.

        A guy like Valdez, who has had his share of clutch hits the past two years, should be the weakest hitter on your bench. Last year you had Martinez, Gload (injury or not), Francisco and Schneider. I could make a solid argument for Valdez being the #2 bat of the bench. Not good for a team with World Series aspirations.

        Thome is an upgrade over Gload in every way, Nix is comparable to Francisco but still a better defender. And Wiggington upgrades Martinez by a landslide. I’d like to see some speed but other than that we did a good job of remaking our bench. And I’d still say there’s room for Cuddyer, but that’s a different argument

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        2. Omg You are validating new arrivals with guys who should not of even been on the team. I am a Thome fan but Gload should of been in the hospital. Nix =Francisco and Francisco =????. Actually over the last three years Nix hit .009 higher against right handers Wow And a golden nada against left handers NADA. WIiggington has bee fading
          over the last three years.Better than last year. Ok but that aint saying much
          No Cuddyer either he is gone

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          1. And those guys who should have not been on the team got a lot of playing time last year and we won 102 games. This bench is better and will be able to fill in better than last years bench. No one has a bench full of starting caliber players unless the rest of their team sucks

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            2. Doumit would be a number 1 what? Number 1 overpaid bench player. 3 mill for a guy who can’t play catcher well at all or any position for that matter. I don’t understand the infatuation of him. Doumit would not be a starter on this team so I don’t know what he’d be a number 1 at.

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    4. It’s next to impossible to build a team that is a sure thing to win the WS. The playoffs are a small sample size, one bad series and you’re out, in a sport where all teams have many highs and lows during the course of a long season. Even a very good team, a team with enough talent to be a 60/40 bet to win a series against playoff-caliber teams, has less than a 40% chance of reaching the WS and a little better than 20% chance of winning it. The 2011 Phillies were a very good team that just happened to lose their first playoff round against a hot team, which eventually won the WS. We outscored that Cards team and were let down by our pitching as much as our hitting.

      The Phillies are built on excellent starting pitching and that is a wise way to build a team. It is not just a matter of that is what got us to the post-season with 102 teams, history shows that great starting pitching generally leads to playoff success. The PHillies 2011 offense was certainly good enough, with the pitching staff we had. We were the favorites to win WS, we just didn’t. That will happen more years than not.

      How can full season of Pence and Mayberry lead to a better October? Well, Ibanez is gone, so Mayberrry will actually be allowed to play in October. Pence had an October mini-slump. In 2012 he may be on fire in October. In October 2011, the offense was also crippled by serious injuries to Polanco and Howard. Hopefully, they are both healthy and productive in 2012.

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      1. But you can build a roster with 25 ball players not MM or even Valdez. The chances of guys like that rising to help in the postseason are nil. Limited players like Nix are negated because in a tight spot other manager will make a move on them. Frankly speaking this position roster stinks and only that good if Rollins signs and Howard amazes

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        1. Sir, I would like you to point to any team in baseball that has 25 starters. Actually, we’ll be generous, take out pitchers and say the team is carrying 12 of them. List a team with 13 (position) starters. There are none. There are quite a few without 9. Hell, ask the Pirates, Astros, Padres, and Giants if they wouldn’t mind having some of our bench players. We don’t have the best offense in baseball. But even with dismal years from most of our players, we ranked 13th in baseball in runs scored. 13th. We outscored the majority of AL teams, and that’s without a DH. Throw into that our pitching (which allowed 49 -FORTY NINE- fewer runs than the second place Giants, and that’s including our BP which was our “weakness”), and I don’t really see what we have to complain about.

          Our offense isn’t the same powerhouse it was earlier in the decade. We’re not putting up the same runs we did in 2008… but it’s not like we haven’t done anything. We shifted from an offensive juggernaut with weak pitching (Brett Myers, Jaime Moyer, Joe Blanton, Adam Eaton, Kyle Kendrick), to adequate offensively with godly pitching. And, while the shift hasn’t presented us with a world championship, it has provided us with a vastly improved club.

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    5. You can’t buy what the Phillies lack: clutch hitting. It either happens or it doesn’t. Personally, I like the line up. A full year of Pence/Mayberry hopefully equals a more consistent unit for the duration of the season.

      Like

  37. So Rollins resigns for 3 years/$33 million, option for a fourth. Far less than most of us believed he would get on the market. The Phillies played this one beautifully. I think Freddy Galvis becomes injury insurance for now. I like this move all around.

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    1. It’s not like he can’t use the extra time in the minors to refine his game. He’s far from a finished product and he’s still young.

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        1. Yeah I know. I actually think another good year by him and they may bring him up to play 3rd base in Polanco’s place. Since Polanco is gone after this year. And if you saw Ruben’s interview on MLB.com he sounds like Brown figures into the future. He also said things that made it that he could play his way onto the team this year if he tears it up. I think it’s going to be Polanco and Victorino let go after the season so that Hamels can be resigned. Then Mayberry moves to center, Brown goes to Left and Galvis could possibly play 3rd (or short if J-Roll would be willing to move- not likely)

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            1. Victorino was perhaps one of the five best center fielders in the bigs last year. 6th in OBP, 4th in SLG, 4th in OPS at the position. He was probably our most valuable position player in 2011. I certainly wouldn’t be in a hurry to look for his replacement.

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          2. I really hope they don’t try for Cespedes. Lot of money for a guy that I feel like has a huge chance of being a bust.

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          3. Please no. Galvis does not have the bat to play third. He may not have the bat to play shortstop full time.

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            1. People say Polanco doesn’t have the bat for third either. My reasoning is only predicated on Galvis continuing to improve. If he doesn’t then you go with some kind of stop gap. I think its best if the Phillies stall at third base instead of signing some free agent. They will have to save money some places to re-sign Hamels and adress other concerns.

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            2. Galvis at third is a complete non-starter. If they don’t acquire Wright, they will probably rent a player for a few years until Franco is ready. They have decent contingency plans at most positions, but not at third.

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            3. I too think stalling for Franco is best. Well if nothing else if Galvis has a good year he could at least be called up to be a utility guy. I’m not sure what will happen with Utley but Galvis could always go there while we wait for a couple of Greene/Walding/Quinn to make it. I am not high on Galvis but he could provide at least defensive value on the cheap if we really need to go cheap in some places

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          4. I wish all you guys would stop with the Galvis to 3rd or Jimmy to 3rd in a year because neither is going to happen. Zero % chance. They’ll sign a FA or make a trade, guys would love to play in Philly. If Galvis has a good year hitting he’ll get a chance at replacing Valdez next year. Mayberry isn’t a full time CF so I’m not sure what they’ll do if he has a good year and Brown comes back to have a big year at AAA. I don’t expect Victorino to be back so I could see a trade involving Brown and a starting caliber CF if he has a good year. Of course, if the Braves don’t resign him, Bourn is a FA after the year too. Bourn over Victorino?? Its time to extend Cole now…

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            1. You want to extend Cole but then you go against all the cost saving moves that make that possible. I wouldn’t be thrilled about Galvis at third but it should be considered if he continues to improve with the bat. Money needs to be saved for Hamels to be signed. Also I don’t see why the Phillies wouldn’t go with Mayberry in Center if he has a good year. He could certainly be an average defensive CFer. Of course if they have already gotten rid of Brown then he can just stay in left. But I think Brown if he tears it up in AAA should be kept around to go to left for 2013.

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            2. (THIS IS DIRECTED TO CHRIS)

              Chris,

              You do realize, glavis at 3rd would be the worst starting 3B in MLB… like it wouldn’t even be close. Glavis is going to get slaughterd by major league pitching. If it happens at short, I might be able to swallow it because the bar for SS’s is set so low, but corner infielder? oh come on, get real.

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            3. Like I said I’m not enthused about a Galvis at third either. It’s something to consider if he continues to improve at AAA in 2012. Money is getting tight especially if they re-sign Hamels. You can’t fill every position with an all star. David Wright, Kevin Youkilis, etc. are going to be fairly unrealistic if we have any intentions of re-signing Hamels. Even if you don’t start Galvis at 3rd he’d figure to be a large part of filling the role along with a stop gap. Then Galvis can move to second to replace Utley after 2013.

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            4. I’d also like to point out that we got by with Polanco this year with his OPS of .674. Granted Galvis would probably hover closer to .600-.620 area but I might be willing to bump that up with a good AAA year this year. Like I said I’m not considering this at all if Galvis takes a step back in the upcoming year. I’m not high on him but if his performance is there you have to consider him.

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        1. Part of the reason for that was that there was an assumption that a shorter contract would have to be purchased at the cost of a greater AAV, which does not appear to be the case.

          Will be interesting to find out the terms of the vesting 4th year.

          Like

            1. Nope, I had it a little higher. I thought he would get the 5 years at 13 million per.. But, J-Roll said he turned down more years and money from Milwaukee , so there is no accounting for irrational market behavior . And, most on here were not remotely close to the actual amount. The typical guess on here was: 2 years at 8 million per. And that was a direct quote from whatever alias the former “John from the Philly NorthEast” aka “the foremost baseball authority in the Delaware Valley (Cataldi) was using at the time.
              It was also a typical response of that amalgam of ubiquitous types who without their handles you wouldn’t know who it was types. So, I say, right in the ballpark.

              Like

      2. Yep, I had 3 and 32 including a 4th yr option with 2m buyout. Although I was hoping that the option would be controlled by the team. Hopefully it vests with no less than 450abs in yr 3

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    3. Doesn’t solve the age problem on the team going forward but the best we could hope for given the circumstances. Galvis can spend a full year on what is becoming a loaded AAA team and come up when there are injuries or prepare for his role (utility IF) in 2013 when you can imagine that Rollins, Utley, and whatever 3B they find will be needing games off regularly.

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  38. Hopefully they discussed Rollins moving to third. Given Polanco’s medical history, I would use the excuse of getting Galvis time at short to start playing Rollins at third sometimes in ST.
    I could see late season and postseason with Galvis at short.
    Anyway it was a good signing to go along with Thome .

    Like

  39. If he takes the winter quantum leap like he did last winter yes. Do you think Polanco will finish the season with Cholly as manager.

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    1. no, it isn’t. Nix is the better hitter (career .718 ops compared to .686 for Chavez), especially coming off the bench as a pinch-hitter. Also need to see the $$$ value of Chavez’s deal.

      But I guess we are to assume that Lance Nix is slated to become your 25-man on the bench whipping boy for 2012. No doubt, he’ll be the reason the Phillies don’t win enough games because they could have had Endy Chavez instead…

      Like

      1. Think playoffs. Think later innings Think pitching change.And the answer is yes unless they bring back MM or Nix proves me wrong even a little.
        BTW why quote stats and not quote the Nix batting average against lefties.
        ” Christmas is but a step to ST” lol

        Like

        1. Because Nix won’t be batting against lefties?? I also didn’t quote the stat that Nix hit more HR’s in 2011 than Chavez has in his entire career…

          But come playoff time, neither player will have much impact since neither wil see more than a couple of at-bats but I am regularly amused by your obsession with bench players.

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      3. The advantage of Endy Chavez is that you never know when some idiot will give you Marlon Byrd for him. He’s nothing special offensively at all. Funny, looking at his 2007-11 batting line, he pretty closely mirrors Jiwan James’ raw stats.

        Like

    1. Not bad nice link. I think it pretty much sums up for me why I rank the two Greenes ahead of guys like Colvin, James and JROD.

      Like

    2. Yeah, that’s a very good link. Everything based on first hand information, and significant video on the players. About the only numbers included were mph records for pitchers and the allegedly low OBP of Jiwan James. This differs from alot of places which solely rely on the recitation of various complex formulations, most of which are simply listed to show that they heard of them, that they purport to dictate all future events. I added this site to my favorites list. Worth looking at.

      Like

  43. Bobby Abreu is available, he’d make a nice platoon LF with Mayberry if the Angels ate $6M of his salary…

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    1. Bobby A……major leage record holder for BBs by a Latin born player. Sits right at the top and in top 15 of all players in MLB history.

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  44. Vs RHP
    1. Utley 2B
    2. Abreu LF
    3. Rollins SS
    4. Pence RF
    5. Victorino CF
    6. Thome 1B
    7. Polanco 3B
    8. Ruiz C
    9. Pitcher

    Vs LHP
    1. Utley 2B
    2. Mayberry LF
    3. Rollins SS
    4. Pence RF
    5. Victorino CF
    6. Wigginton 1B
    7. Polanco 3B
    8. Ruiz C
    9. Pitcher

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    1. That’s ridiculous. Rather look at projecting 2013 lineup…

      1. Rollins 3B
      2. Utley 2B
      3. Victorino CF
      4. Howard 1B
      5. Pence RF
      6. Brown LF / Mayberry LF
      7. Ruiz C
      8. Galvis SS
      9. P

      Like

      1. Yeah, this is no big deal, just an “old buddy” hire. Welcome to the old boys network of major league baseball. Where Ed Wade keeps getting hired as GM and Kim NG can’t get the GM job she deserves (she is one sharp cookie – if she had been male she definitely would have had a GM gig by now).

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  47. Wade! Wade! That isn’t what I asked Santa for. And a scout much less! Does this mean Paul Spoljoric is coming back?(the worse addition in the history of baseball and Wade’s first).
    That Abreu talk was that ole Ed. I wish I drank.

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    1. Relax ‘wheels’, chill……..his first assignment I heard is getting Chris Wheeler’s signature on an contract extension in the booth until 2020.

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      1. How about drafting and developing most of the ML roster? Amazing how people seem to forget that and harp on the trades. One that got us a championship and the other two that have done nothing so far except deplete the system. So yes, they do owe Wade, they owe him for being a major contributer to a World Series Champion.

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  48. Kevin Goldstein reports Yankees ‘big’ on signing Cespedes once he gets residency clearance….Ruben has the Yanks exactly where he wants them…overconfident….I have my own ‘marfis prophecy’…Phillies pull the rug out from under the Yanks, sign Cespedes and deal Vic.

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    1. I get that there is some fascination over Cespedes. But I just don’t find him that impressive and doubt he’ll have any impact at the major league level. Lot of money to commit to a guy that is still pretty raw.

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      2. These international guys usually do not contribute that much despite dominating their leagues. I just think the money it will cost to sign him isn’t worth the risk. This guy is not as young as Chapman but he figures to make more than him and you’d have to think that the pitching he’s faced is not nearly as good as what he will get in the majors.

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        1. ‘Some scouts have put a 70 grade on Cespedes’ power, and it is easy to see why. There is also evidence of some of the length and lunging in his swing that some are concerned about. It’s hard to find a scout who has thrown a plus grade on Cespedes’ hit tool, but even at 50, it’s his lowest score of the five’…Kevin Goldstein, Dec 19, 2011

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    2. I would much rather have the younger Cuban, Jorge Soler. Cheaper and younger than Cespedes, you could get some more out of Vic and then move him up into the line up.

      By the time Cespedes is ready he will be 26 or 27, that doesn’t help the age problem with the team.

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  49. 56-106 and you get a job !! What the hell do you have to do to get out of the ole boys club.
    Ed has brought back visions of old time Phils baseball
    1961 47-107
    1945 46-108
    or 1930 52-102 with Klein and Lefty O’Doul and a .315 team batting average
    Ed can lead us back there. I know it.

    Like

    1. He gets a job as a scout. I’m not sure why you hate on him so much. I bet you thought we got robbed in the Pence trade and maybe even the Oswalt trade. Guess who recognized that talent and went after it? Also the man did draft most of our current core which is pretty darn good. I’m not sure about the hatred for the signing. He didn’t do a good job putting us over the hump but he did lay the groundwork for our current run of success. As far as I know he’s being asked to lay some groundwork with this position.

      Like

      1. As a GM Ed Wade was truly incompetent. It’s not an accident that Houston went into the crapper on his watch. And please don’t give him credit for developing the Phillies minor leagues – that started before he was hired and the operations were run by others, particularly Marti Woelover and Mike Arbuckle. Ed Wade did a couple of affirmative good things, including trade Stocker for Abreu, the first J-Roll contract and the Hunter Pence trade (he got a ton of value from the Phillies in that one). But on the whole, he was a very bad GM – I would use the word “overmatched.”

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        1. The Phillies under Wade weren’t bad teams at all. He didn’t do a good job with the Astros, but the reason they were so bad is that they drafted and developed only two impact players of any note in the last 12 years (Hunter Pence and Ben Zobrist). Given the poor player development and owner constrictions, they would’ve been bad no matter who the GM.

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          1. Alan – I respect your opinions a lot. But, as the Phillies GM, he personally did very little to improve the team. He inherited a good farm system that drafted very good players. He did not do this – the only thing he did was not fire the people who were doing a good job. The team improved under his watch because those players happened to mature. That’s about it. Most of what he did was either ineffectual or failed miserably. Remember the Curt Schilling trade? What a disaster. Andy Ashby? And how about those incredible trade deadline deals – Turk Wendell? Please.

            As Astros GM Wade failed to improve the team and allowed a bad farm system to get worse. He was, again, completely ineffectual. I am sure he is a nice man, but as a GM, he was just a fish out of water.

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          2. I’m nothing close to being a fan of Ed Wade but he did in Houston what he was hired to do, cut the payroll and make the team more attractive for a new buyer.

            from Sept 2007 when he was hired through 2011, he traded away every player of value who was making money in exchange for low level minor leaguers and their payroll dropped from $92M+ in 2007 to 77M in 2011. In 2012, they have just 5 players under contract for $48M and only Wandy Rodriguez has a contract that runs past 2012.

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            2. Yes, if the job is to trade away expensive talent and not sign new expensive talent your team is going to stink. How well he did his job will be determined by how much value they get from the guys Ed Wade acquired in the trades. It will be a couple of more years before that question is answered.

              As for his role with the Phillies, as long as they don’t allow him to make any player personnel decisions, everything will be fine

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      2. I guess it is a good thing he is not here to be GM. Only here to scout talent. Which I think he does a pretty good job doing.

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      3. Anything you say. Remember the Hunter boys , Glanville the man who was going to revolutionize the lead off position. I could go on all night.
        BTW Pence is over and so is Oswalt and I am not losing sleep over the past.
        PS. Chris Wheeler excepted

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    1. Will never be King of the World.

      Apparently went after some little girls in his own family.

      If so, rot in hell.

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  51. Hey guys, I just posted an interview that i did with Tyson Gillies on my blog. We’re a pretty small blog but we’re trying to establish a good reader-base, if you could check out my interview (which was pretty good) I’d really really really appreciate it. Also, please give me some feedback.
    Thanks!
    http://bit.ly/sRBBiI

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  52. Bill Conlin who knows.
    Is this thing true or the work of an overzealous analysis?
    One thing I do know adults who hold their tongue for 40 years deserve no respect.

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    1. There’s a lot of detail in that article. I’d be surprised if it wasn’t true.

      Conlin always had that dirty old man vibe. This is not a shock to me.

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