Hey everyone. I have a bunch of big plans for the site over the next few months. Today is a rough day, as we try to sort through the rubble and figure out what went wrong. I think I already figured it out, and I wrote about it before Game 5 even happened over at my other site. But it’s going to take some time to decompress. I’m just going to ask that you decompress here in this post and not everywhere else on the site. You can talk about which players should go, which should come in, etc etc. But I am going to do a few updates per week on the AFL, I’m working on some other pieces as well, and then we’ll start the Reader Top 30. I’d prefer to keep all of the hand ringing, wallowing, and bitching in one place. So this is the place. Bookmark it if you need to. But I’m going to eradicate unrelated comments in other posts that belong here. A disappointing season, but still a bright future ahead. So get it all out of your system now and let’s move on in a little while.
Thanks
Phuture Phillies 
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With Howard possibly out for a chunk of next season, I think now might be a good time to rebuild on the fly. Regardless of how much you like or dislike Howard (I dislike), trying to get through next season without him is going to be a difficult one. The Braves pitching is only going to get better and they’re going to address their needs. I feel like we can still compete next year while rebuilding instead of trying to forge ahead with our eyes on 2013. Let Mayberry play 1st. Brown takes LF, Pence in RF. Let Oswalt walk. Let Madson walk. Get a feel for what Victorino would want as an extension. If it’s too much, then he might end up being our best trade chip. Maybe we can trade him for a short-stop who is ready to make an impact.
We can’t afford to over-pay Rollins and carry him into his mid to late 30’s. Look at the albatross that Howard has become. Look at A-Roid. Would a 2- or 3-year deal be worth it for Aramiz Ramirez?? Would he even accept that? Polanco would be an expensive super-sub, but you have to feel Utley will miss some time. Who knows? The possibilities are numberous.
You should feel comfortable with Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Worley/Blanton with a mediocre bullpen where Bastardo or Contreras is the closer. Chooch behind the plate, Utley at 2B, Pence in RF, Victorino in CF, Mayberry in LF or 1B, Dom Brown ready to make his mark (can’t be worse than Ibanez this year), next year’s team should still be competetive. I’d be excited to see what we can do with some fresh faces in the lineup.
I think this off-season is going to be the true test for Amaro. It’s not about spending money or trading our best farm guys for the best major league players anymore. He’s going to have to be creative and this could make for a really fun off-season.
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Why should Brown be in Left ? he can’t play good enough. Right didn’t work out he’s not good enough. Face it some guys are just not good players. There are other guys waiting with talent. Will center field be next? He has the worst out fielding skills, why keep giving him chance after chance. Left field, right field, and maybe center, enough of Brown give someone else a chance. I am not Brown hating just stating a fact.
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Wow, just give up on a guy who’s what, 23?? That makes no sense at all. Catching fly balls is just repetition. He’s got a good arm, great athleticism, speed. He’ll be better defensively than what we’ve had out there the last 12 years (Burrell/Ibanez).
You’re just stating fact, huh? Sounds like you’re stating opinion and calling it fact. The sky is green. I’m just stating fact. See how dumb that sounds?
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Actually Brown is now 24–last month was his birthday.
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Its absolutely insane to write brown off. Ill just echo Andrew r. and say that there is no reason he shouldn’t be a PLUS defensive corner outfielder given repetition and coaching. We’re talking about an athlete slated to play WR at Miami before the Phils inked him. Beyond that he hit .245 this year in limited ABs this year coming off a broken hand, a lot of 23 year-olds would have fared a lot worse than that. Unfortunately because of idiots like you he may never have a chance to develop and succeed in Philly.
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Exactly right! If we have to wait until he is 30-years old to catch and field, then we wait. Period.
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There are no fun offseasons unless the season ends with a parade
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Why let Madson walk? He’s still fairly young, in his prime, etc. Would rather let Rollins walk (he’s neither of those things)…
Howard signing — which never looked good to me in the first place — looks that much worse now. Sadly even Utley doesn’t appear to be the player he used to. This offseason really will take some creativity.
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We do need to rebuild on the fly — this team is becoming too old and too expensive. You can’t succeed long term paying most of the team for what they’ve done in the past, when their future is likely far dimmer. Rollins is in that category and so is Victorino. Both are good for another 2-3 years if the price isn’t crazy. Madson a better bet going forward than Rollins. Again, 3 years is fine if the $ are okay. I really doubt Contreras is back. Madson, Bastardo, Stutes, Schwimer, Herndon, DeFratus in the pen, with whomever of Worley/Kendrick/Blanton isn’t in the rotation as the long guy. That’s a cheap enough pen to make Madson eminently affordable.
What happens next season depends a lot on whether or not Howard can play. If he can’t, I don’t think you can afford a stopgap for significant $. Mayberry at 1B, with Overbeck or Rizzotti in reserve. Left field is Brown/Francisco. I know Cholly and half of Philly are down on Francisco, but his OPS is almost identical to Ibanez and Cholly was thrilled to play Ibanez, plus he earned a return with his big playoff pinch HR, so he’s at least my 4th OF, if not part of a platoon. If RA improves the lineup anywhere, it should be at 3B. Polanco is past his sell-by date and should be a super-sub.
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The problem we have here is that going into 2012, some of our current players are good enough to compete just not in the spot in the lineup they have batted in the past. Utley is no longer a 3 hole hitter, Pence doesn’t really belong 3 or 5, Polanco is nothing more than a #8 at this point, Ruiz is 7 or 8, Ibanez should have been a #7, Rollins is #2 or #7, Vic is a #2.
So we have needs for the following: 1) a 3 or 4 hole hitter, 2) 1 or 2 hitters that can work a count, 3) a high OBP hitter, and 4) depth on the bench.
Rollins – I love the guy and will never forget his leadership putting us on the map and making this all possible, but a 4 or 5 year deal at $10M plus per season for a guy whwo’s game is primarily based on speed and defense is a BAD idea. His range is going to get worse and worse, and his ability to steal bases and be a plus baserunner will evaporate over the next few years. On top of all this, he has injury concerns and no longer plays with any energy – doesn’t run balls out. He appeared this year as a guy more concerned with staying healthy in a contract year than doing everything possible to help the team win.
Look at our position player starters over this run – Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, and Burrell were all home grown. Werth and Victorino were us taking a longshot chance on a few talented young players that worked out well for us. As Feliz, Burrell, and Werth departed, the team was unable to fill their spots from withing with youth, energy, and hunger. Rather, we signed / traded for Polanco, Ibanez, and Pence. The first two names are not energy guys, not young, not speedy, and we gave them each at least one year too many, maybe two in Polly’s case.
RAJ must get creative and go find the next Jayson Werth, the next Victorino, the way Gillick did before him. This lineup needs a new leadoff hitter as Rollins departs and it is not anyone on our roster. Utley can bat 2nd, Howard when back can bat 4th, Pence and Victorino can bat 5th and 6th, and if a Mayberry/Brown platoon hit 7th with Ruiz Xth, I can live with that. But how you fill SS and 3B with a leadoff and cleanup hitter will be nearly impossible. Yes, Reyes and Ramirez could do it, but I don’t see Reyes as a good investment and Ramirez is a stretch, and to afford these guys, some significant cost reductions on the pitching staff would be necessary – something that looks like this – Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Worley, and Kendrick as starters, with a pen of Bastardo, Stutes, Contreras, vet LOOGY, Schwimer, DeFratus, and a long man. (Trade Blanton, and let Lidge, Madson, and Oswalt walk.)
On the optimistic side, maybe Mayberry can play 3B and develops into the offensive player Werth became. Brown comes in next year and develops into a futur star and hits 300, walks a lot, works counts, and shows 20 home run power. Pence flourishes in his new environment and becomes a 30/100 guy and is our cleanup hitter for the next several years. Bastardo Stutes and others develop into the most dominant young bullpen seen in years.
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Mayberry third base?????? He has not played third base in close to 700 professional games—MLB and MiLB—since 2005. At Stanford he played OF and Ist base It just is not going to happen at age 28.
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Mayberry at 3rd lol. A 6.4 big guy playing 3rd no way I see him at first to start next year with howard out.
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Scott Rolen is 6’4″ so size shouldn’t be the reason you discount him for 3B. It should be because he has never played it before so its unrealistic to expect him to take to it from the outfield in one offseason.
If not Mayberry then who do you see playing 1B? Overbeck? Rizzotti? Free Agent?
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I like to see if O’beck can handle some big league pitching come spring…he seems to adjust at every level after slow starts. The next few months in the AFL can be a small indication. He has adequate defense to play 1st or LF, but if the Phillies have to use him with the big club in 2012, then the team is surely in a desperate mode by then.
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We have learned we can’t just keep giving contracts that are going to haunt us for their last few years, so the most I throw at Rollins is 3 + a club option. Madson I would bring back if the price is right but for now lets assume everyone leaves and Howard is out for the year.
Batting Order:
LF Brown
2B Utley
CF Victorino
RF Pence
1B Mayberry
3B Polanco (or anything else please)
C Ruiz
SS Stopgap -> Galvis (at least he can play defense)
P
Here me out on Brown hitting #1, I don’t think this is where he hits long term but right now his skill set his that he can take a walk and he can run. If nothing else his OBP will be an improvement on Rollins and hopefully he can do more as well.
I would trade Kendrick hopefully for a SS or 3B, I think he is a #4/#5 on most teams and he gets undervalued here.
The bullpen will be fine, Savery has developed in the second lefty and by July I predict Aumont will be up and dominating.
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I’ve been saying for the last couple of years that if Ruiz had a little bit better speed, he’d be a great 2-hole hitter. I still wouldn’t mind seeing him pushed up in the lineup. He’s rarely over-matched, can work a count and usually hits the ball hard… and that’s with a pitcher hitting behind him. Put Utley behind him and let’s see what he can do. If Jeremy Giambi can bat lead-off for the A’s and they can have success, why can’t Chooch do something similar with the Phils?
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Because he doesn’t have a little bit of speed, not even a smidge
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2012 really is the best year for this team to go young.
Halladay. Lee. Hamels. Those 3, if they’re healthy pretty much guarantee at least a Wild Card.
I’d like to give Galvis the Short Stop job… even if he doesn’t hit (which he most likely won’t). His glove is by all accounts as amazing and the Phillies could survive with him hitting in front of or behind Chooch. He’s a better alternative to any of the C-List Short Stops out there if Rollins walks.
Domonic Brown… the kid gloves are off. He’s my every day left fielder… Mayberry would become my every day 1st baseman. He’s not going to be amazing but he could hit about .250 with 20 bombs and 50-70 RBI’s probably.
However, they need to sign a closer. A veteran. A Madson, a Papelbon, etc. The Braves proved that it may work to have a rookie closer, eventually, it’ll hurt you.
My line up?
1. Victorino
2. Polanco
3. Pence
4. Utley
5. Mayberry
6. Brown
7. Galvis
8. Ruiz
9 Pitcher
* I like Galvis hitting in front of Ruiz because I trust Ruiz to get on base more to clear the pitcher’s spot… and if Brown his a lead off double, Galvis can get him over and Chooch can get him in.
My rotation?
1. Halladay
2. Lee
3. Hamels
4. Discount Roy Oswalt/Joe Blanton
5. Vance Worley
My Bullpen?
CP: Madson/Papelbon/Bell/?
SU: Bastardo and DeFratus
MID: Stutes, Schwimer, Contreras, Savery, + other
Not a great team… but a team capable of winning at least a Wild Card if everyone stays healthy.
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That lineup is horrible, we’ll lose 80 games with that lineup.
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No we wouldn’t…
Howard (according to my numbers) was worth 2.7 WAR this year.
Ibanez was worth -0.4
Rollins was worth 3.7
… which would equate to about 6 more losses..
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… I don’t use these statistics often, and am trying to start to become more sabermetric oriented in my analysis of players… if anyone can further elaborate on those numbers, feel free to jump in.
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I wouldn’t live and die by WAR though, because they can really over/under rate defense…I think UZR (which isn’t perfect) and OPS are much better determinants in determining player value
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I don’t think it is either… he just said that they’d be an 80 loss team. So I figured I’d use those numbers to disprove that. Thanks for the insight though. Some guys really do think WAR’s the be-all-end-all stat when the guys who calculate it don’t even believe that.
I’m becoming more of an OPS guy. I don’t like any defensive stats personally, I really believe the only way to evaluate a player’s defense is by watching him play.
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OPS better then OBP?
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It really depends on the player. I think it’s a joke our organization doesn’t value OBP/OPS.
I think it’s a joke our organization doesn’t value OPS/OBP… or even acknowledge advanced sabermetrics. The Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox, all use them. I used to be like that but I hope they, like I, changed their mind. Sabermetrics were created to be a way to gather additional information about players… not replace the scouts… all it is: additional information. I don’t understand why the Phillies ignore information.
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… not sure why I typed the same sentence twice in a row… but it was a long weekend.
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I like your pitching staff, but the lineup sucks.
Get Galvis out of there. Bring Rollins back on a three-year deal with maybe a vesting option. Try to find a good, young 3B at reasonable cost (Headley[?]) or a stop-gap veteran with pop, and move Polanco into a super-utility role. Let Mayberry and Brown fight for playing time in LF, and sign a veteran like Giambi to fill in at 1B.
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Per Will Carroll:
injuryexpert Will Carroll
Hearing Phils expecting confirmation of Achilles rupture from today’s MRI. Discussing surgical options.
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I think it will be time to so goodbye to Polly. He was a shell of himself this year with the injury. I think we need to go after a 3b with better production. Trade Polly and pay 1/2 of his contract to get some minor leaguer. Rollins I would offer a 2yr deal with an option if I were the Phils. Otherwise sign a vet to a 1 yr deal and have Galvis playing in 2013. Not sure about Dom Brown yet. I have a feeling there will be some jobs won in Spring Training.
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I’d like the Phillies to sign Cuddyer. Veteran bat that can play 1st, 2nd, 3rd, RF, LF, even give you an inning out of the bullpen. You could play him at 1st base, platoon Mayberry/Brown and he’d be great insurance if Polanco and Utley get hurt like they most likely are going to.
Another Option is Derek Lee. He still has the power and still has the defense. He’d be a great fit in our line up and in our ball park.
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Lee on a 1-year might be enticing, but the price would have to be really cheap. Cuddyer is a butcher, in his mid-30’s and switching leagues and seeing all new pitchers for the first time. I’d rather have somebody with great hands. Our pitchers give up a lot of groundballs.
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Lee is way older than Cuddyer, and is a shell of his offensive self. Cuddyer will catch what is thrown to him, which was the same as Howard. He is versatile and mashes LHP…I for one would think it would be a welcome additoin…Lee is also 36 where as Cuddyer is 32
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… you should check out what Lee did with the Pirates.
At the very least he could put up better/similar numbers to Mayberry.
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Three words…Small Sample Size.also keep in mind, not the greatest pitching faced.
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I think the Phils need to go out and get someone who was a bright young player a few years ago but then kind of faded away. If the Phils get a guy like this, it will be cheap and possibly productive. Similar to when the Yankees got Nick Swisher. Maybe get a guy like Melky Cabrera or Delmon Young.
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I think the trade chips continue to dwindle folks. This team needs to reshuffle the deck with a combination of free agency and farm help. With that said:
1. There are plenty of closers available should Madson go elsewhere. Clearly you need to sign a closure for a year or two. Stutes and Defratus are not closers yet. But the addition of Aumont will be huge.
2. Unfortunately, Rollins needs to go with the current payroll structure [you can almost compare twith the sixers when Iverson was traded, too many overpriced players and not enough trade chips on the team]. Galvis should be starting by June. Valdez or stop-gap as opening day starter.
3. The team needs a plugin at 3B even if that means a platoon with Polanco next year. JMJ is NOT 3B lets not go there please. Think Charlie Hayes / Scott Brosius.
4. I think there is some trade value with the dearth in BP and some veteran pitchers. Package or otherwise the following; Defratus, Aumont, Stutes, Schwimmer [pick one], Kendrick, and Blanton [with money in].
5. Victorino is unequivocally your leadoff guy. But a lineup of the following, assuming Howard out for the year:
1. Victorino / CF
2. Utley / 2B
3. Polanco / 3B – platoon at position, order change
4. Pence /RF
5. JMJ / 1B – Rizzotti with JMJ in L
6. Brown / LF – platoon at position, order change
7. Galvis / SS
8. Ruiz /C
The holes are obvious, but I think RAJ will make the moves to keep this club at the top of the division. Unless, ownership tells him to do otherwise.
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I love it – the idea of Mayberry at 3B is too much for you to handle but Polanco and his 5 homers batting 3rd and Rizzotti playing 1B are great ideas. Wonderful plan
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You should love it Anon because it is a wonderful plan given current players in the system and on the team.
Polanco will perform much better in a platoon role. Do you forget his numbers before getting hurt? Rizzotti is probably the best hitting 1B in our system. Mayberry is not a 3B. Very simple.
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Polanco couldn’t bat 3rd for the Pirates next year, let alone the Phils. He is a borderline starter at this point, and he should be batting 7th and 8th when he plays. And Rizzotti, a guy that every single MLB team passed on getting for nothing, is now going to bat 5th for us?
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Just because he’s the best first baseman in our system doesn’t mean he should be playing in the major leagues…
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Enough of the sarcasm!
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I don’t like Polanco in the 3 hole and there’s really no reason for him to be with a healthy Chase Utley and no reason to separate lefties.
Victorino
Polanco
Pence (I like him because he shoots the ball the other way, has some speed, would play in front of Utley really well).
Utley (he should have his power back after an off season of training without rehabbing).
Mayberry/or Vet 1st Baseman
Domonic Brown/Mayberry
Galvis
Ruiz
I agree with you having Galvis in the 7 spot. I hate when Charlie moves Ruiz out of the 8th spot because I think he really shines (for his standards) in the 8th spot.
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FIRE AMARO!
He has not proven to me he knows how to build a roster. I do not trust him as the man to make our team a contender/world champion. Let’s remember Gillick was GM for the 2008 team .
Sure trading for Roy was great. Amaro gets credit for it..but lets remember.. Roy wanted to come here. And we didnt fleece the Jays..we traded big time prospects to get him.. and really didnt have many teams that were competitors since Roy wanted to be a Phillie
Signing Lee as a free agent was great. The trade to Seattle was bad… while I hold out hope for Aumont.. and Gilles has had bad luck. that wasnt a steal.
The Pence trade seems like a disaster. Yes, we have him next year. But we traded SIngleton, Santana, and Cosart
We lost Gose in the Oswalt deal.
He signed Ibanez to an inflated contract. He signed Polanco to an inflated contract. He signed Shane and Blanton to inflated extensions.
And he gave Howard one of the 5 worst contracts in baseball (ARod, Vernon Wells, Crawford also come to mind)
And.. he extended Charlie 2 more years.. when our team clearly needs a change.
Do you trust him to handle the Rollins, Madsen free agency? Make the right call on Chase? Replenish the grit on our lineup? Extend Hamels?
I do not.
Maybe he doenst “deserve” to be fired. But he hasnt proven he is up for the job
If we walk away with this era with one WS.. it is a failure. I dont want to take that chance
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Not sure RAJ should be fired. He made all of the “win now” trades. The trade to Seattle was a direct result of an agent asking for a 7 year deal. You roll the dice on a healthy Oswalt. The Howard extension was certainly perplexing for a guy who was still arbitration eligible. Polanco as a super utility guy will really strengthen a weak bench next year. I am really curious if the Phillies try hard to keep Ryne Sanberg and put him as bench coach if Macanan [sp] goes elsewhere as manager. The slow start could put Manual on the hot seat for a win now club.
In my opinion, there is a great trade partner in Boston who also had a disappointing season. Perhaps, the teams shuffle the deck a little in an effort to revive the situation.
I want to acknowledge an incredibly gutsy effort by Halladay last night. The man has done everything and more since arriving.
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I am curious why Polanco is considered a super sub. He has no power-can’t move well laterally, can’t run and does not work counts well. I like Valdez better who can play short very well and seems to drive in runs when given an opportunity at far fewer dollars.
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Polanco when healthy is a much better player than Valdez. He will be even better in a bench role at his age. Do we forget Polanco was top 5 in batting average before getting hurt?
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That was not a huge sample size and he has not stayed healthy for a full year. Hoping that his slowing, aging body can replicate his past at this point is not realistic.
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But when is Polly not hurt anymore. He’s breaking down as is Utley and Rollins. Tough times are ahead.
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Yeah RAJ is not the issue. The Pence deal is far from a disaster. I think he batted .324 when he came here and showed some good power. The prospects they gave up have many years till they reach the bigs. Amaro kept May over Cosart which looks like a good move. Singleton will probably have the most success but he was blocked by Howard. Santana remains a question. The Lee deal could still help us as Aumont had a strong year and JC Ramirez finished last season off strong. The key is a healthy 2012 for Gillies. Halladay deal was a plus (40-12 in 2yrs and 2 no hitters – 1 was perfect). Polanco’s deal was fair 6 million per yr. Most of you wanted Figgans. Victorino’s deal is below market. The only issue i had with Ibanez deal was the years. With Howard it is always easy to say afterwards it is a bad deal. He has been the best power hitter we have had since Schmidt. The fastest to 250 hrs. Always suppling 30hrs and 100 rbi. I feel bad for him as some of the fans cheer his injury. We will be missing him the first few months in 2012.
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but his win now trades didnt make us win.. i will concede the Lee trade got us in the WS. and Oswalt probably got us in the playoffs last year. But we didnt win. And we paid a hefty price.
What do we need most of all? New life on offense
Players traded- D’Aurnaud (sic), Singleton, Gose, Santana, Jason Donald (bench guy)
not to mention guys who havent produced yet (michael taylor, lou marson)
now.. none of these guys would walk into out 2012 lineup and make a huge difference… but for a team that is stale and inert offensively.. thats a lot of talent to have lost
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I agree with you from a depth perspective. But going for it is better than doing nothing. Fans and veteran players revered the win now trades.
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But it is RA’s job to have a longer time horizon, be less emotional, and be smarter than the average fan or the veteran players. I can understand why an Ibanez or Rollins want RA to go all in and mortgage the future. Really no downside to them. Ibanez won’t be here, Rollins doesn’t have to be here and a WS appearance would have given him a chance to be a hero on the national stage and up his next contract. Utley may feel his best days are beyond him and two years down the road for Cosart and Singleton seems an eternity. But it’s not that far away, when a GM has to have a strategy to keep the Phillies on top.
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It’s called window of opportunity. Ruben hasn’t sold these guys for some rental player like Sabathia or Beltran… he’s gotten guys under contract or guys who he later signed to a long term contract.
He’s taking advantage of the window of opportunity and he’s done a good job of extending it (on paper).
Under his time, so far we’ve drafted Jesse Biddle… and some of the guys from this year’s draft really look promising.
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Boston is a perfect trade partner. We need hitting, they need pitching. It makes sense.
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How do you cook your grits? Do you like them regular, creamy or al dente?
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You don’t trust him to build a roster?
This team won 102 games. I’m disappointed as everyone and this was a disappointing season but to say he can’t build a roster is ignorant.
Building a farm system… different story but their farm system is still pretty darn good.
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I’d be interested in hearing your master plan for building the roster that is most likely to be successful in a 5-game series followed by two 7-game series.
Start from scratch and fill all the roster spots or at least the key roster spots.
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Also, it should be terribly obvious that Utley, Polanco, and Howard were truly weak links by the end of the season. Clearly, an issue of age and ability to stay healthy.
The team needs to evaluate current system depth. I don’t think a MLB club with Galvis, Rizzotti, Mayberry, and Harold Garcia is much of a winner without some all-star talent. Utley and Howard may not be all-star caliber anymore due to health issues.
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I basically agree with PP’s approach, and I think that, for a lot of reasons, the panic around here is not fully justified, and, even to the extent that it is, a fire sale now (a) won’t happen, and (b) shouldn’t happen.
But you know what? I’m pretty darn angry about the Howard contract right now – and frankly it just confirms my worst feelings about Amaro, who is in way over his head. It is now certainly the worst contract in baseball history. It’s worse than merely wasting 150 million for nothing. Because of the need to justify the contrsct, they will waste the next few years in a futile attempt to get some value from Howard, and they won’t deal with the massive hole at 1B.
And yeah, I know, everyone will say “but you couldn’t have predicted the injury.” But that was one of the criticisms of the deal to begin with – career ending injuries happen, and it is insane to sign a long, expensive contract almost 2 years before the prior contract ended. Of course that doesn’t even account for the fact that the age related decline WAS predictable.
And yes, I realize that technically the injury isn’t career ending. But does anyone think that, between the injury and the Mo Vaughn aging pattern, Howard will contribute anything of value to this or any franchise in the future? I sure don’t.
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Here’s an interesting counterfactual: what would the market for Howard look like this offseason if Amaro hadn’t given him the huge (and not particularly timely) extension? As it was, he would have been the third-best FA first baseman on the market, after Pujols and Fielder, and then with the injury, he would have been looking at a one-year deal at best. The Phillies would also have the option of pursuing Pujols, as one of the handful of teams in the majors who could arguably afford him. Hindsight is 20-20, of course, and I suppose that at the time Amaro was foreseeing (as everyone else did) that the Cards would give Albert a historically large contract and thereby set the market for Howard. And he was trying to avoid a potentially nasty PR situation in which two cornerstone players, Howard and Rollins, left simultaneously. But yeah, overall, it looked very questionable at the time and looks disastrous now. And things have a real chance got get very ugly very fast between Howard and the fan base next year, especially if Rollins is not around to deflect some of the heat, as he was apt to do.
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Let JRoll go, let Raul go, let Roy O. walk, offer Lidge one year 5M,..sign Jose ‘Can You See’ Reyes. Hope for home-town discount from Mad-Dog, And Bert Hamels, give him extended 7 year deal…back loaded.
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I can’t see how giving Hamels a 7 year deal helps the situation. Lidge is beyond damaged goods for $5M. There are plenty of closer options, but I would like to keep Madson. Perhaps the fact he has been closer for one season will make his market rate more affordable. Reyes is not a ‘phillies’ guy and would not fit in.
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back-load Hamels’ contract, last 4 years….gives you budget flexibility in coming seasons.
Lidge not a closer, that ship has sailed—a set-up guy. One year contract seem to make MLB players more productive, for some odd reason! Madson has already said this is ‘home’…but will Scott Boras encourage him to do an Angels’ Weaver maneuver? That is the question.
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I think locking in 3/5 of your rotation for multiple years with high cap dollars hinders the ability to make year to year adjustments. Weaver and Verlander are staff aces without other Cy Young candidates. We already have Halladay and Lee with strong depth in the minor leagues.
What are the thoughts of a rotation Halladay, Lee, Blanton, and Worley, with a veteran signing for the 5th spot? Perhaps you can plug some holes with trading Hamels. Just a thought given all of the long term money committed. He would certainly get you 2 to 3 major leaguers and provide payroll relief needed for future maneuverability.
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Trading Hamels would certainly bring back lots as you say…..but do you really want to trade him. I mean thats definitely ‘major surgery’ in the off-season moves category!. And Blanton, on his last contract year, but will his mysterious elbow issues remain injury-free the whole season, probably, its his last contract-year.
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I agree Anon-1. Blanton is the wild card, maybe he lights the world on fire in a contract year. My sense is Hamels mechanics will not allow him to complete a long term contract. Just my sense, not factual but he did miss a start with shoulder [or elbow?] soreness Halladay and Lee are proven. Why should I pay $20M+ for 3rd SP and 14 wins, in addition to providing a warrant for our hitters to slack off? Blanton can certainly give you 12 wins. I also believe Trevor May is a September call up. We are already in major surgery mode in replacing LF, SS, and possibly 3B, in addition to likely injury at 1B and 2B. Not much drop off in replacing your third starter. I would love nothing more to keep all of these guys, but Halladay is ‘all world’ and Lee has a huge contract. That leaves Hamels as the trade-able commodity.
Also, I am against trading Brown at such a low market value. Let the kid play a full MLB season!
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ARE YOU INSANE?
Cole Hamels is developing into one of the best left handed pitchers IN THE LEAGUE…? You want to trade HIM?
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Lots of feelings after yesterday’s loss, but wanted to drop in for a quick comment; With so many closer options on the market this offseason, why overpay for Madson when you can overpay for one of his alternatives and still get two compensation picks? Seems like a no-brainer, and I’m actually a Madson fan.
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Watching the young relievers in a semi-meltdown mode late in the season and Madson’s performance in the playoffs makes it a no brainer to secure the closer position.
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Madson must be resigned. Oswalt not. Mayberry in the of only. Rollins offered 3 years. Gpodbye polanco. Trade brown for c. Headly or s. Drew. I think caddyer was resigned by minny. Sign e. Encarcion.. the team won 102 games . Lee blew game 2, manuel was outmanaged and they didnt hit, why go crazy. Howard will be fine, buts he,s the perfect example of a player being scouted. Utley and rollins were the only guys who hit. What happened to chooch. Hamels came up big again and what can be said about halliday. The only move that must be made is trading brown for a 3rd baseman.
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I prefer Ian Stewart of the Rockies — I thought Drew was a ss, did they change him?
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Ian Stewart got several chances w/ the Rockies but has zero on base skills, and cant hit left handed pitching. Drew is stil an SS and was injured, but back to Stewart, I’d rather not have another leftie on our team who can’t hit LHP…
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You can’t just goodbye Polanco, he’s under contract for next season. If nothing else, he is a better sub than Martinez. Why pay someone to take him.
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anon2 – Sadly, nobody will give up much for Domonic Brown now. He’s going to be worth more to the Phillies. They have to hope he can pick it up again.
Can’t say goodbye to Polanco. He’s still got a guaranteed contract for next year. They can say good bye technically, but they’re better off keeping him as a backup if he can regain some semblance of his health.
Blanton has zero trade value. He either pitches for the Phillies or he spends the next year eating doughnuts and wondering why he didn’t have the surgery.
They need to convince Madson to stay for reasonable dollars. And if Rollins will take a three year deal at no more than 36 mil, then that has to be considered, but he’s most likely gone. They may have to force feed Galvis in the majors. If his defense is good enough, he could hit 220 or 230 and make it worthwhile.
Mayberry at first until Howard gets back, then to left field. Unless they can pick up a one year guy like Derrick Lee or similar to fill in.
Would love to see them grab a guy like Giambi to come off the bench and fill in at first.
And lastly, they simply cannot trade Colbert Hamels. He is the best pitcher they’ve developed since Robin Roberts and he will be here when Doc and Lee have finished their contracts and gone. With Doc, Lee and Hamels for the next 4-5 years, this team will always have a chance.
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Keeping all three pitchers for over $60M per year will by default limit your ability to get hitting and proper depth. This team will not win without hitting. Believe me, I am all for keeping our homegrown guy here! Trevor May or Brody Colvin or Julio Rodriquez in 2013.
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There aren’t enough hitters in the pipeline. Yes, the Phillies will have to find some, but trading an ace isn’t really the way. Can you get a starting top shortstop and thirdbase prospect for Cole? Maybe. Throw in a closer can’t miss and I’d do it. But no team is really going to do it. They’d all three have to be major league ready can’t miss type guys. And those guys are really rare.
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“This team will not win without hitting.”
That’s a curious statement. This team did win.
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I bought tickets for game 2 of the NLCS. Hopefully I get a refund.
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No refunds….they go to Howard’s 2012 $25M contract…sorry my man…for the team!
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LOL I know. I almost figure that could be a top reason not to give me one.
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the last inning of that game showed me that chase is really not the same player.The ball he hit would have been a homer two years ago. his body is really breaking down. Signing hamels long term is a no brainer. madson and rollins are hard to gauge. because of years and money.would resign raul for one year 5 million if he agrees, an insurance if brown or mayberry faulter.
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Think positive….Brown will not fail.
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Ibanez is not close to a $5 million player and if Cholly has him, Cholly will at least start him against all RHP. More than anyone, Ibanez must go. With Oswalt, Lidge there is value at the right price. With Madson, Rollins there is value at a reasonable price (one approaching but not surpassing 8 digits). With Ibanez, there just isn’t value in a role in which Cholly and he would be comfortable. If Ibanez is there, it will be a repeat of this year and Brown and Mayberry won’t get a fair chance to win the starting LF job. You say if Brown or Myberry falter, yet Ibanez ore than faltered this season and kept the job.
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So a frozen rope to the warning track in center field is proof he is washed up. I would stay Anonymous with that line of reasoning.
I will go on record now as predicting Chase has a big year in 2012. Il like him in the two hole. He in no way is responsible for the teams dismail performance in game 5. He took one for the team, singled and came within a hairs breath of tying the game.
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Sorry for my poor spelling above—Chase attacks really fire me up.
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No. The sub .300 obp is proof he’s washed up.
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check your facts
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Please no more of Raul Ibanez we have to get younger and we have to let Brown make mistakes before we run him out of town. We should hire Garry Maddox to work with the kid in the winter and all of Spring Training.
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Its unfair to write off Utley after this season. Any athlete that has ever been injured knows that an off-season spent rehabbing an injury is not the same as an off-season spent training and preparing. When you’re rehabbing you spend all your time stretching, doing range of motion exercises, and light resistance to try to build your strength back up. With the amount of time that goes into this there often isn’t much time for working on other muscles.
Also, due to the fact that it was his knees I am sure he was very limited in the exercises he could do. Running, agility drills, plyometrics, and a good majority of core strengthening exercises would be very limited with bum knees. The off-season is when you make gains, the season is when you maintain what you built. With Utley being so limited in what he could do in the off-season I think this equates to the dip in his hitting.
I honestly think with a full healthy off-season to train, Utley will have a bounce back year. The man is a fierce competitor and I am sure the Phillies post-season collapse will fuel him all of next season.
Also, even if he isn’t the player he was in 09 and before, he is still a 2B at the end of the day and will still produce better than 85% of the 2B’s in the league. The problem is his overproduction at his position has made up for the underproduction from 3B and LF/RF over the years. When he doesn’t produce at that level, there is no one to pick up the slack.
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Good post about Utley as I am sure that Halladay and him are the angriest Phillies right now. I just can’t understand how Rollins, Victorino and others attitudes are not ticked off at their performances especially Shane.
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I can’t wait until ‘hot-stove ‘ begins….almost as good as hot and sweaty August baseball. But may miss a chilly World Series!
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Does anyone really care about the remainder of MLB postseason or Iggles football at this point? I hope the NBA season is cancelled. NHL should be good though. Suddenly my schedule looks wide open.
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I’ve been disagreeing with you all day so figured I would take this opp for some harmony. To hell with the rest of the playoffs….BORING. And until Reid is fired, who cares about the dog murderers
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I wouldn’t mind going after someone like Kila Ka’aihue from KC, he struggled at the beginning of the year last year (low babip) but is a great OBP guy who is trapped behind Hosmer/Butler. If the Phils could get him cheaply he could fill in for Howard while being platooned with Mayberry. I think SS needs to be addressed based on what the market sets, I don’t think the Phillies can give Rollins a lot of years or cash. If they can get him for a reasonable 3 year deal great, if not I’d look towards a short-term cheap option while Galvis gets more time at AAA. Maybe Carroll (2.2 WAR) or Scutaro (2.9 WAR). Then, I would set the line-up like this:
Victorino
Utley
Pence
Kila/Mayberry
Brown
Polanco
Carroll/Scutaro
Ruiz
Pitcher
I acknowledge that this is not very exciting line-up but I think it would allow the Phillies to put money into bring back Oswalt and signing Hamels to a new deal. Madson like Rollins I think should be brought back if the price is right, the closer market is very deep this year so I would not make a move until after a few guys are signed to prevent what happened with Ibanez from happening with Madson.
On another note, Gose is looking pretty good in the AFL.
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KC put Kila on waivers and the A’s already scooped him up.
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There will be a Jim Thome sighting next month.
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Very good call.
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Honestly, I really wish this team could get younger and fast. This team is likely going to be terrible in a few years if this team can’t develop and hold onto impact prospects to join the big club. The Phillies can’t just keep trading away any prospects of value for ‘win now’ nonsense that never guarantees anything anyway. This team needs strong prospects now more than ever, and that means walking away from expensive trades. With the way i’m feeling right now, I almost want the Phillies to trade away the entire offense, but unfortunately they wouldn’t get much of a prospect return for many of them by this point in their careers. My opinions may be colored by anger and frustration, but this team really does need some more youth and fast.
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If Howard is out for the year, I assume they have some insurance on that large a contract, would that effect the plans going forward next year.
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xm radio mlb channel yesterday said they did NOT purchase insurance on the contract
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We belabored the contract issues months ago….MLB teams normally only insure the LAST year of a players contract. To costly to teams to insure the beginning initial years.
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Giambi is a realistic possibility, Howard will be back by May so only a short term fix is needed. No way they trade Hamels, this team is a pitching team now that needs to keep it’s pitching. They want to keep Madson for a reasonable number and will have to wait until he decides what he’s doing before they can sign anyone else. The SS situation will be the most interesting although I would consider trading Victorino if he would get them something. It’s time for Lidge and Ibanez to go.
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How do you know Howard will be back by May? The Phillies organization doesn’t even know when he’ll be back. And trading the best offensive player on the Phillies is not a good idea.
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Honestly, I think this opens the door for Thome to return to Philly. He wanted to come here this year already. He has already indicated he is interested in playing another season.
The only question is if his body can handle playing 1B for a month or two until Howard returns. Mayberry can platoon with him if needed to make it easier on him physically.
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“The Sky Is Falling! The Sky Is Falling! Fire Ruben! The Winningest Manager in Franchise History should be Fired! This team that Lead all Major League Baseball in Wins in each of the last two years is Doomed! If we only had all those non impact Minor Leaguers we Traded to get Halladay and Lee in our Family BACK!”
The Phillies Peaked Offensively in 2008 Winning the World Series, in 2009 we made it to the World Series and Lost, in 2010 we lost in the NLCS, and in 2011 bumped in the first round. The Phillies were the Lowest WAR for Hitting for all the Top 10 finishing teams this year, and the Highest by Far in WAR for Pitching.
Utley, Rollins, Polanco, Howard, Victorino, and Hamels were all seriously injured this year and we still Won the highest number of games in Franchise History (102-60).
Utley and Howard are regressing. They both could some back or continue to regress.
Brown/Mayberry should be an upgrade in left,
This Leaves 3B and SS for Upgrades. We need a Significant Impact Bat.
All teams have Issues. The Phillies have fewer than most.
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Too late the sky has already fallen
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The low WAR in hitting is a troublesome indicator……..damn Martinez!
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AAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG 1 F-ing RUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SON OF A @&*$%)$_$_#_($_(%() AAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Halladay….Lee…..Hamels…..Oswalt……LOSE?????
WHAT THE HELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
i mean could anyone…ANYONE get a hit in this series?????? hOWARD
Howard 2 years in a row….REALLY?!?!?!?!?!
UN……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
believable…
-okay I’m slightly better now
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Pretty good season—104 and 63…….now that ain’t too shabby! Lets celebrate.
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Followed by total embarrassment . No thanks. How long can the Braves, Marlins and Washington stumble around.
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Rollins is out . I am sick of his not running balls out (or is it ballsout),
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I will write a detailed post later, but I think ninety percent of these comments are ridiculous.
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That’s a low estimate
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whole-heartedly agree……….reading some of theses makes me want to watch the eagles..
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Dude, calm dow, there’s no reason to go that far. Step back from the ledge, do not do it…
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… let’s not get carried away.
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Yeah, great regular season. Had a shot in the playoffs, but it’s a crap shoot to win the series. Some team gets hot and that’s all she wrote. That’s baseball. I think they can get a wild card next year with their pitching alone, if they get hot they could win it all. No need to panic for next year.
It’s the years after next that worry me. The core will be too old or long gone. We need a youth movement. Unfortunately, we don’t really have any hitters at advanced levels. We do have pitching and I say we let the kids come up NOW. If we can save some on pitching we can sign FA stop gaps, or even all-star possition players. We just need to free up cap space. That’s why I say we should NOT resign Madson. We’ve got plenty of BP ammo. Everyone says that none of them are ready for closing, and that’s probably true, but you role the dice. You have three young guns with the abiltity in Bastardo, De Fratus, and Aumont. Have to trust it to faith that one of them will step up and get it done.
Resign Cole if you can. Oswalt walks. As to a fifth starter see what Kendrick wants, if it’s too high you sign a handfull of AAAA guys and then ride the hot arm. 2013 bring up some of the kids that were in Clearwater this year. The money saved with all of this should open up the possibility to sign a big name, and hopefully youngish, FA SS, 3B, or really whatever, doesn’t make much difference as long as it’s a bat that can provide runs.
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I’d like to use this post to pontificate on an issue that has caused me deep frustration for a couple of years now. I know that nobody will listen, but I will cry out into the wilderness nevertheless.
Now that the season is abruptly over, fans and pundits have turned their eyes to the 2012 season. Once again, the name Domonic Brown is being brought up as someone who could possibly emerge as an everyday player for the Phillies, this time a leftfielder. And, sadly, this situation is seen by many fans and pundits as a bad one. The conclusion has been reached that Brown, once so promising, has over the course of the last 2 years regressed to the point that it’s pretty clear that he will never amount to a good ballplayer.
I strongly disagree with this position. To argue my case, I will look no further than our very own John Mayberry Jr. Many fans and pundits do not seem to understand that Mr. Mayberry had his first solid season in the major leagues this year. Before this year, he spent the vast majority of his time in the minor leagues. What many fans and pundits also fail to realize, it seems, it that Mr. Mayberry is 27 years old. In sum, Mr. Mayberry is having his first taste of success in the big leagues at the age of 27.
How does this affect the judgment of Brown? Well, many pundits and fans fail to realize that Brown is just 24 years old. This is why he is frequently referred to as a “kid”. So, with Mayberry, we have proof that we cannot rule out the possibility that a 26 year old still in the minor leagues could still have success in the big leagues. So, we cannot rule out, also, the possibility that a 24 year old could still have big leage success. Mayberry is not the only example of a player taking some time to develop.
It also seems that many pundits and fans have concluded that Brown’s very brief time in the big leagues to this point has been a collosal failure. He had 62 at-bats in the big leagues in 2010, most of them off the bench, and played for about a month and a half in 2011 in a semi-regular role. I don’t think we could conclude that he will fail based on this sample- it’s far too small. Also, in my opinion, Brown’s performance in both years was not as bad as some fans and pundits say it is. He has shown: patience at the plate, plus speed, plus power and he hit about .300 for the month of July in 2011. While he has not been stellar so far, I think that Brown has shown that he has the potential to be a special player.
But some fans and pundits point to what he did in Lehigh Valley for a month in the 2011 season after he had been sent down. My response to this is that, in this month, Brown’s hitting was worse than it was in the major leagues in 2011. Therefore, there is no way that this month could be representative of Mr. Brown’s abilities. He has proven that he is better than this and these problems cane be reasonably attributed to the fact that he was the one change the Phillies made when they retooled for the postseason in 2011 (which didn’t turn out very well, by the way). He therefore probably concluded that he was the one problem the team had, and he therefore lost confidence.
In sum, just like every prospect, Brown is a question mark. And I know that, until he has more consistent success, the talk that is bugging me will continue. But I just wanted to establish the truth that we should be optimistic about Brown, although with some reservations, not pessimistic but with faint hopes.
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well said.
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I fully agree. Brown was one of top 3 prospects in baseball going into the season. He was abysmally misused by Cholly and RA with the to and from the bench and AAA. His numbers are viewed as a total disaster, yet his OPS for the year in close to 200 AB is .725. For comparison, Ibanez, Cholly’s wonder boy who could not yield his position to Brown/Mayberry had a season OPS of .707, but Cholly never ranted and raved about Ibanez not being adequate. Two young OF on the way up were sacrificed to worship at the altar of the faded veteran Ibanez. That is why Cholly must go. He is a players’ manager, but he is not a young players’ manager. He is a guy who will go down with his fading vets. He also played games with Worley, giving Oswalt his spot in the rotation back without adequate minor league rehab and when he returned clearly not ready. I’d like to see Francona return as manager or give Sandberg a chance at the helm. Like Ibanez and Polanco, Cholly’s time has gone. The team needs to get younger. That is outside Cholly’s comfort zone.
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Agree…..concerning Brown, I just look at Jason Heyward. Last year, 2010, he was the cat’s meow….now the Atlanta fans want him out….@22. I think Brown has experienced the downside of the baseball spectrum and now it his tme to rebound and I think he can.
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Thanks, folks. I just had to get that off my chest.
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We’re not going to know the severity of Howard’s injury until after his surgery. If he’s going to be out until May or June, I think Jim Thome would be a great answer. The guy was a fan favorite and seems to still have a little left in the tank. He would be the temporary answer at first base, and then when Howard comes back, he would be a GREAT bench player.
Lineup prior to Howard coming back:
Rollins
Polanco
Utley
Thome
Pence
Mayberry
Victorino
Ruiz
Pitcher
And you pretty much replace Thome with Howard once Howard comes back.
Lidge is gone, Ibanez is gone, Oswalt might retire, Rollins will stay unless offered an insane contract and the same goes for Madson.
If they keep Madson, he’ll be the closer. If not, I could definitely see the Phils going out and getting Heath Bell. De Fratus, Schwimmer, and Aumont will be in the bullpen along with Bastardo, Contreras and whoever else they decide to bring in.
The rotation will be Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Worley/Blanton or Kendrick if they are unable to bring back Oswalt. The big question here will be if Vance Worley can have another good year after a great rookie year. We have seen on various occasions, pitchers like J.A. Happ and Kyle Kendrick who had great rookie seasons here but have turned into mediocre pitchers subsequent to that rookie year. I believe that Worley can potentially be better than Happ and Kendrick because the difference between him and those 2 is that his fastball has some movement and his breaking stuff in general seems better.
If Rollins goes, it will be Galvis/Valdez/Martinez playing SS. The key will be to see how Galvis translates into the MLB after having a very successful year in the minors. Worst case scenario is that Galvis doesn’t play well and Valdez takes over for most of the duty. Valdez wouldn’t be that big of a downgrade from Rollins anyways, so I’m not too worried about that. I don’t see the Phillies going out and getting Jose Reyes.
The lineup if Rollins leaves:
Victorino
Polanco
Utley
Thome
Pence
Mayberry
Valdez
Ruiz
Pitcher
And now the Dom Brown issue. Brown is going to need to get his act together. He still seems very raw, and whenever a change is made to his loopy and unconventional, he has problems adjusting and goes back to his natural, bad swing. We’ll just have to see what happens with Brown. He’s got all of the tools to become a superstar, but whether or not he’ll be able to change his swing will determine if he will become a superstar.
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So Victorino was the Phillies best hitter for most of this season and your repsonse to that is to drop him to batting 7th and leave Polanco batting second when he sucked for the last 5 months of the season? In what world does this makes sense?
And yes Valdez would be a HUGE downgrade from Rollins. There is a reason Rollins is looking for a 4-5 year deal at over 10 million and season and will get it while Valdez is a reserve who has to fight hard to make the team every season.
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Polanco bats better towards the top of the lineup and Mayberry will get some protection if you bat Victorino behind him.
Valdez is as good if not better defensively compared to Rollins and his bat is serviceable. Rollins hasn’t been the same offensively since 2007. I’m not trying to belittle Rollins because I do think Rollins is still pretty good, but if some team wants to overpay for a 33 year old veteran shortstop who’s past his prime, they can be my guest.
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First, Valdez is not as good as Rollins defensively but I don’t care to argue that point. The offense is what I am looking at. Sure Rollins hasn’t been the same offensively since his career year in 2007. That doesn’t mean Valdez is anything close to as effective of a bat as J-Roll. Just compare their two seasons.
Jimmy – .268 avg, .338 OBP, .399 SLG, .739 OPS,101 OPS+
Wilson – .241 avg, .294 OBP, .341 SLG, .634 OPS, 73 OPS+
Here’s the thing about Rollins decline. Its less than a reality than most think. On the surface you see his #’s and see they are down from what he used to put up. But if you look more closely you see the #’s are down in all of baseball to pre-1994 levels.
The .739 OPS this year is the equivalent of the .811 OPS he put up in 2006 (both are 101 OPS+ seasons). If you look at the SS position you’ll see Jimmy is still Top 10 in baseball and Top 5 in the NL. When you look at those players with a higher OPS this year, very few of them can provide the level of defense Jimmy does.
He will absolutely be worth every penny of the 10+million he receives each of next few years. Just 5 years will be too long. Phils need to see if they can get him for 3 years.
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Max, you make my head hurt
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Polly is havng sports hernia surgery this week…..he was not healthy this year.
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he’s never healthy. He’s breaking down.
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The obvious question is why didn’t they operate during the early season.
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No guarantee he would return, although in hindsight he didn’t add much offensively
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Jim Thome for 1B, even though the man himself has stated he can no longer play 1B.
As for 3B, I recommend that we go after the greatest 3B of them all. Michael Jack Schmidt.
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Let’s start with the contract decisions:
Rollins: Stays if he’s willing to take less than 4 years, goes if he doesn’t.
Oswalt: Stays only if his salary is reduced.
Ibanez: Gone. And thanks for a mostly good 3 years.
Madson: With a bullpen in flux he was a constant. Yes, he’s going to get a big deal but I think he’s young enough and good enough to pay it.
More later.
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Oswalt may take a reduced salary…..but added years may be his chip. So can the Phillies live with a $10M per with Oswalt at 3/4 years?
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The first thing is to clear the roster. I see no reason to bring back MM other than a AAA contract.
Not only is sub Mendoza for the year but sub Bruntlett for the second half. Why lose a prospect for a sub marginal player. I know some of you say so unimportant but a new broom must sweep clean.
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No to Thome or getting any major league 1B or corner OF. If we have $, spend them on a 3B, a CF, or a C. We need to give 1B/LF to Mayberry, Brown, and Francisco until Howard returns.
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Francisco is in all likelihood gone. He made 1.2 million this year as a 5th outfielder and is guaranteed a raise off that as he is due for arbitration.
Given how far he has fallen in the depth charts it makes no sense to invest that kind of money into an easily replaceable outfielder.
We should thank BenFran for the catch in Colorado and the PH HR in St Louis and wish him luck finding a situation where he can get more playing time.
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Uh oh….you just ired larrym….Benny Francisco is one guy he likes, even as the 5th OF.
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Hahaha sorry larrym, I like the guy just stating realities. Makes no sense to pay 2 million to a 5th outfielder. If he accepts a hefty paycut I’d like to see him return.
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You have to hope some gm still lokes brown. Imo he,s a dog. If he were in rookie ball there moght be a case he needs time. But hes 24. Mayberry always was fundimentally good, brown is not. Look at niel walker from pirates chase d ,arnaud s.drew on the d.l. chase headly, sign e. Encarcion anyone of these guys solves a big problem. Brown does not. Btw whoever brought up thome makes a great point. Thome would be great at first. Manuel was outmanaged to a fair thee well. Oswalt is not needed worley,s ready for the next 10 years. Anyone who trade hamwls is nuts.
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You absolutely can make a case he needs more time. Look no further than Chase Utley. At the same age he was stinking it up defensively and offensively for the Phils. He wasn’t able to earn a full time starting role until he was 25.
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Worley may come down to earth a bit—his MiLB stats reflect a slightly above .500 pitcher—25-23, with 3.8 ERA. 1.25 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 6.9 k/9. Still looks like a 11/12 win guy. And for a lower rotation guy that would be acceptable. In any event, you cannot expect him to have a winning pct as he did this year
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He’ll be an 11-12 win guy if the offense scores 11 or 12 times enough for him…I don’t think anyone pegged Cole Hamels to be a 14 win guy especially this year…sorry to get on my soap box, but using wins as a determinant seems pretty illogical especially given this offense
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The batters don’t seem to see the ball against Worley but that can be a drawback. How can you get them to swing at a borderline or worse pitch if they won’t even swing at strike. Worley needs to consult with some REALLY smart on or off the team to advance,
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Prob because Worley doesn’t have an out pitch…..top 5 in MLB in called strikes, he’d absolutely benefit from developing an out pitch, but stuff-wise nothing stands out to be above avg
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I do agree that the Phillies need to make some major changes. As much as we have an emotional tie to Manuel, the team is not responding to him as well as a few years ago. He has always been overmatched as a strategist in-game, but his leadership abilities overcame those flaws. I realize it is unpopular with many on this site, and certainly it is emotionally difficult to let people go who have been so successful in the organization, but he needs to be replaced. You can use the same argument to keep him as Bostonites have used to keep Francona, but at some point, just as with a business, the leader loses the ability to motivate the workers. So as much as I appreciate what Manuel has accomplished, I think it is time to move on.
Starters who should be let go:
Ibanez: this isn’t really debatable.
Oswalt: unless he comes back at a HUGE discount for one season, I don’t see the Phillies keeping him.
Rollins: again, emotionally this is difficult because he has been the emotional leader of this team and still plays very good defensively. However, the team is old, and we need to get younger.
Starters who should be retained:
Madson: with the caveat that his contract is not disproportionate to his value. Preferably a 3 year deal with a team option for a 4th year. He is a Scott Boras client so the contract demands may be untenable, but Bastardo had a very unsustainable BABIP, which will regress to the mean and is not the solution at closer. Aumont is still developing. I still believe this team has a window for another year or two depending on Ryan Howard’s recovery, etc. and I think they will need a solid closer if they are to be a playoff/World Series contender.
Impact (read players who will receive significant playing time) Players to target for 2011:
Xavier Nady: he is not sexy and will not be a difference-maker, but he can play first base and outfield and has a solid if unspectacular bat. He also can be had for around $2M (last year a little less for the D-Backs). He provides a little pop and veteran experience and can be utilized as a starter should Mayberry or Brown struggle or get injured. He is a right-handed bat, which gives the line-up some more balance as well.
Edwin Encarnacion (this is dependent on Toronto not picking up the option): again he is a relatively inexpensive 1-year addition to the team at $2.5M this year for Toronto. This would move Polanco to a utility slot, which at his age he is more likely to excel at (although he would be a very expensive utility player). Although I doubt that the Phillies could pry Wright from the Mets the following year (the Mets have an option for 2013), it would provide them an extra year to find a permanent solution at 3B after they let Polanco walk following the 2012 season.
Jose Reyes: the caveat with this would be that his contract is not rediculous in its demands. He would provide a switch-hitting speed merchant on the base paths (sound familiar), but at age 28 would give the team a player in his prime for the next 3 years. A five year deal would put him at 33 to begin the last year of a deal. I realize he may not be a good “fit” personality-wise, but I also think that culture has a lot to do with that. The Phillies have a different culture than the Mets with leaders in the clubhouse like Utley, Halladay, Lee, Victorino and now Pence. They work hard and play all-out. This would only improve Reyes and I could see him performing very well in red pinstripes.
In-house solutions:
D. Brown: I agree with all of those posting that Brown needs to be given a full-time opportunity to succeed in MLB. He has been our #1 prospect in the minors and didn’t suddenly lose all that ability overnight. He should be penciled in as the starter in left field for next season.
Mayberry: He has certainly begun to blossom with time and deserves an opportunity between 1B and LF next year.
I think Galvis could use another full year in the minors to continue to improve offensively. He is certainly ready on the defensive side of the plate, but I would be concerned about a significant regression should he be called up next year. If the Phillies do not find a longterm solution at SS in the offseason, they could target Furcal or another one year option and bring up Galvis in 2013.
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Okay next year this is what they should do.
Let Oswalt retire or sign with another team
OFFER Rollins 4-7 mil a year for 3-4 years, if he says no screw him we have galvis/greene waiting if not pete orr or mike martz can do a fine job at SS.
Lidge- Offer him 2-3 million a year for 2 years. If he walks who cares we have a lot of potential bullpen prospects.
Ibanez Let him go or sign him 1/2 years for 1-2 million to be a Pinch hittter like gload can play 1B when howards out also
Sign madson 5 years however much he wants.
Shop Polly around for even a Herndon-type guy or a LOOGY.
Maybe look for a trade giving up 2 top 20 prospects for a 3rd base man or sign a journeyman type. OR look to make Galvis a 3rd base and wait for greene or someone else at SS.
Also, if they can bring back Stairs as a 1st base replacement while howard is out. Probably not going to happen.
Rule 5 another gem like the past few years. Maybe a starter OR BULLPEN GUY
Ok Rotation
Halladay
Lee
Hamels
Worley
Blanton/Free Agent/Rule 5
Bullpen
Closer Madson
Set-up Lidge(if resigned)
7th Stutes/Contreas/Schwimmer/FA
Loogys Bastardo/Savery
Kendrick in Long relief
Herndom and schwimm may be the odd men out or can take a place if injury occurs
Aumont can be used too but not ready yet could be next years Schwimm
Starters
C Ruiz
1B Mayberry/Ibanez? until howard returns
2B Utley
SS Rollins(if not a vetern or Valdez/orr/mike martz/ Galvis platoon)
3B Not Polly (see SS)
LF Brown (defensive needs work but still u cant deny him)
CF Victorino
RF Pence
opening day Batting Order (without rollins/FA/Ibanez/Howard)
1- Victorino
2-Utley
3- Pence
4-Mayberry
5-Brown
6-Ruiz
7-SS (mine-Galvis)
8-3B (mine- Valdez)
9-Pitcher
Not terrible I like Galvis a lot I hope he starts the season with the big club if not AAA SS or 3B
Bench:
Gload/Ibanez
Francisco
Schendier/Kratz
Mike Martz
Orr/FA
Just my thoughts I call this competively rebuilding like the rangers or the tigers.
By doing this the Phils cut a lot of money that can be used in FA for now or later, by cutting dead weight.
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Yes but both Rangers and Tigers have superior hitting which the Phillies do not…you do not want 500 PA’s worth of Wilson Valdez…you think Polanco was bad? Valdez is a Part Time player people..nothing more
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Polanco was a fine player but has become an obstacle. Valdez is not the solution but he is a very good sub at three positions. He is not fast but runs the bases extremely well. He certainly would have been more effective than Polly has been the last several months.
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I highly doubt that. You or I would not know for sure either way
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One word – ugh. Sorry, fellow, but glad you’re not the GM. I describe these ideas generally as a catastrophic recipe for disaster. Most of the ideas are not feasible (Rollins 3-4 years, $4-7 million – in your dreams – keep Gload and Schneider). Those that are (give Madson whatever he wants for 5 years; give Brad Lidge more money; tell Matt Stairs to stop collecting Social Security and sign with the Phillies) – are just not good. By the way, isn’t Mike Martz an offensive coordinator in the NFL?
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yes…Mike Martz is an OC in the NFL, but during the summer months he impersonates as a Rule 5 pickup for the Phillies and goes by the name of a Martinez…..sly fellow him.
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You would start Galvis at 3B, while the rest of us hope his bat develops enough to be barely adequate at SS and take away his biggest plus, which is his D at SS? If you can accept a Galvis bat at 3B, we have Polanco, who should have a better bat than Galvis, especially post-surgery, who is a good defensive 3B, and whom we are already paying. Doubt he is tradeable. You think Rollins would sign for $4-7 mill a year? If he would, I’d give him the 5 years he wants and simply wave goodbye if he stinks after year 3 or 4. Bastardo is more than a LOOGY. I can agree with Savery as a LOOGY, although I think he had success in not a lot of IP this year and that a full year of pitching will restart his shoulder woes. He gave up pitching for a reason, but perhaps he is finally healthy. As a LOOGY he wouldn’t have to pitch much and would return some value for his draft bonus. Valdez is a spare part, kept only because he can handle SS defensively.
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I’m doing better I think at responding to the more serious posts and ignoring … well, you know.
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I can’t say that Cholly should be fired but he has a weakness when handling veteran players. When Chase came back, he and RAJ swore Chase would get 1 or 2 days off per week so that he would stay strong into October. What happened? He played 6-7 days a week every week and once again got to October without a good base to hit for power. Is Chase the reason we lost? Of course not, but its something Cholly needs to recognize. Its also part of the reason our bench is so bad, they never get to play.
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Manuel did not make adjustments as needed. Clearly Pence should have been placed back in 5 hole and Polanco should have taken out of the lineup. Victorino should have been the 3 hole hitter. His fire and leadership will allow you let Rollins walk.
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Or to put it the other way Cholly’s weakness is not allowing young prospects to play. Other than the ill fated MM what young player has had a chance not spawned by serious injuries. I voice my misgiving in the beginning of the year. I wish I had been wrong.
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Pence needs to be your cleanup hitter with Mayberry 6th. Polanco needs a workload relief with 300 ABs max. I put him as the 3-hole hitter when batting .300+. Scutaro looks to be a decent pickup, but he is also 35 years old.
Valdez is my SS in a platoon with Galvis. The rookies Brown and Galvis need to be platooned until they prove to be everyday players. Brown with Mayberry and Galvis with Valdez. Unless you can bring a low risk high reward guy to platoon. Not really sure the market has a truly sexy pickup at 3B, SS, of LF. That is how we end up with guys like Polanco and Ibanez for 3 years. The options are not overwhelming and trading is becoming more difficult.
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Why would you platoon Galvis? He’s a switch hitter..Galvis will get another year in AAA as he is not ready to step into a Major League lineup
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JA you platoon towards his strengths. Time to play the young guys. The team needs prospects to step up now for obvious reasons.
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John, seems like you’re talking out of desperation more than logic……that is a pretty ridiculous notion for very obvious reasons
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You just cannot have a 3rd baseman with 5 hr,s. And btw utley was so far advanced beyond brown in the mlnor leagues its ridiculous. Utley is the only guy to show up over the past 5 years in the playoffs. We won 102 games we need to get younger at 1 position per year. This year it was pence now its 3rd, plus a injury replacement at 1st. The team doest need to be torn apart. Manual has to adapt. It,s ridiculous how good a mamager larlussa is.
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JA – Nothing about it is desperate. It is called managing to the strengths of your players until they prove adequate to start everyday. Not sure you are indicating the obvious reasons. But we can just make blanket statements and that is okay.
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John,
1.) Until this year Freddy Galvis was thought of as a glove only prospect. He improved his stock mightily with his offense, but is not ready to even bat 8th in a ML lineup. He possesses very little power, and doesn’t walk enough…even for a very weak SS crop at the MLB level. Giving him another year in AAA will enhance his skills and allow him to further offensivley against 3A pitching…MLB pitching and NL east pitching would eat him alive.
2. I think you’re drastically underrating Rollins/overrating Galvis..Rollins does not have a great approach @ the plate, but he was 10 times the prospect Galvis was at every level. I’m all for going young, but to bring Galvis up would be setting him up for failure.
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Please be real John, How can a injured player be better than a healthy one? Polanco should been fixed. Gload should of been fixed or replaced.etc.
Which brings me to Pence and the false sense of security. Pence has been fine offensively but when he first got here Jr. had just turned the corner, Vic was hitting great left handed and Ruiz was on a hot streak.Those facts exaggerated the effect of Pence on the lineup.
Ruiz what is up there. One can only think he also had some type of injury. Even when his fundamental stroke was bad, he performed.
Oh shoot I have a headache but at least I am not an Eagles fan, they are still in the suffering stage.
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As we all are going crazy after this season and ready to do crazy things, I think there are some basic assumptions that have to be considered givens that cannot be altered for next season:
1. Halladay, Lee, and Hamels must be kept together as the top 3 starters.
2. Considering his performance this year and his salary, Worley must be the 4th or 5th starter.
3. Not counting whoever the closer is and the long man is, 4 of the other 5 bullpen spots will be filled by some of the following – Contreras, Bastardo, Stutes, Schwimer, DeFratus, Savery, and Aumont.
4. For leadership purposes and contractual obligations, the following players will be on the roster next year – Ruiz, Howard, Utley, Polanco, Victorino, Pence,and Mayberry.
Now that the givens are out of the way, I think these are the various approaches the Phils can take with the roster composition:
1. Sign / trade for low risk, high reward guys – think Werth signing many years ago.
2. Find the next Dave Hollins or Shane Victorino in the Rule 5 draft.
3. Deal from a position of strength – young bullpen. There is no reason to keep ALL of our young relievers and the team should explore whether packaging one of them with a prospect or other player could yield something significant.
4. Probably a minor impact move, if any impact, but would explore converting Herndon to a starter and having him pitch as one at AAA all next season. There is no need or room for him at the big league level and he would be far more valuable to the Phils as a cheap 5th starter in 2013 than any role in the bullpen. His upside as a reliever is less than Bastardo, Stutes, Schwimer, Savery, DeFratus, and Aumont.
5. Rather than populate the bench roles with veteran players with no upside, bring in 2 or 3 younger players who have some upside, again think Werth or Francisco rather than Gload or Valdez. With our popular manager, great environment to play in, aging roster, and chance to win, the Phils should be an attractive option for free agents looking for a second chance.
6. Allow Domonic Brown to play and grow. These crazy extreme opinions on him are insane. He is 24 with less than a year’s experience. Yes he was mishandled. Yes he has not performed well defensively. Everybody needs to take a deep breath and understand if he would have played every day this year for the Phils, they would have won prob 100 or 101 games. Let’s just let him play and put away the microscope.
7. Explore trading Blanton or Kendrick for position players of similar stature, I.e., a bad contract for one year with a potential upside, or a guy caught in a numbers crunch at his position.
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I don’t want to reduce what was clearly a very well thought out post down to just two things, cause I like a lot of what you have to say here.
But a couple things stood out to me. In looking to transition Herndon to AAA starter for a future 5th starter role. Are you indicating that you do not think Cloyd or Hyatt can fill that role until the cavalry is ready (May, Colvin, Biddle, etc)?
Also, with Kendrick, do you see the Phils offering him arbitration? I don’t see how they can knowing he will be a 6th starter/long relief pitcher who was already making 2 million last year to do that and will get an inevitable raise. Being that is the case, unless they can deal Blanton first I think it would be silly to retain Kendrick and I don’t think they’ll get much for either.
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Chewy – to be honest, I don’t know enough about Cloyd and Hyatt to make an educated assessment. My point was more that Herndon is so far down the depth chart in the pen, that its worth taking a shot on even if its a longshot. My statement was not to say he could or will do it, but rather why not take a chance? I don’t expect that Herndon will ever be a solid big league starter but if he could become a 6th starter type who could spot start as Kendrick has I think that will add more value than him being the 7th guy in the pen.
As for Kendrick, I’ve been very anti Kendrick throughout his career but this season was much better for him than I thought it would be. I think he has some trade value evan at his higher salary. He’s not going to net you anything great but could get you something more than a non-tender.
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Yea I’ve never been a big Kendrick fan either. I really don’t think though they’ll be able to get much for him in a deal though. His value lies in being inexpensive. By offering him arbitration he’s going to get increasingly pricey for his production. Could be dealt but for next to nothing in return. I’d rather non-tender him and then try to resign him or let him walk.
With Herndon, I am not sure how far down the totem pole he will be next year. Charlie showed increasing confidence in him throughout the year. In addition, after being sent down in April and discovering he was tipping his pitches, he was very good the rest of the way. On the season he had a 3.32 ERA and 117 ERA+. But in the 46.1 innings after his return he had a 1.94 ERA and 7.0 K/9 IP.
I am curious to see if he can repeat this next year. But then again, if this new found Herndon is for real maybe it is more valuable to put him in the rotation. Supposedly that was their plan this year but for whatever reason they scrapped it. Who knows, but its an interesting idea nonetheless.
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Kendrick should command $4M per.
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Exactly. And that’s why there’s no way I would want him back. You don’t pay a 6th starter/clean up man that kinda money. Although he did pitch well for us this year – it’s just too much.
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Trade rather than rule 5 Lets not clog the roster again.If you know a guy is going to be on the list trade for the sucker.
I can’t get off of trading for Adrian Cardenas
or Sean Doolittle he should fit in . snicker
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So many comments I can’t possibly page through them all. Nor would I want to. I think reflecting on the loss, I wonder if it’s even possible to create a team that’s bulletproof in a short series. If it is, it probably is not worth the long term tradeoff.
The future needs of the team are obvious. Shortstop next season, possibly an upgrade at third base, a short term fix at first base. I wouldn’t spend a lot of money for a closer unless I were getting a super elite pitcher. The offense is in dire need of attention, both a disciplined hitter and a bit of youth needed there. It’s really early to say though before we see who’s available on the market.
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Manuel needs to be fired. I’m sure this will get disagreed with vehemently by a ton of the people who never saw how awful he was as a manager or how awful his teams were before 2008 when the Phillies won the WS in a complete fluke because they had the type of players who an awful manager like Manuel can’t take out of rhythm or mess up as pitchers no matter how much he messed with the bullpen order. Lidge was having a ridiculous year, Blanton was pretty key, guys who didn’t hit ended up hitting, and everything went right.. no thanks whatsoever to Charlie. He used to get absolutely torched for his awful decisions and his infamous double-switches, then they win the WS and all of the sudden, despite the fact that he makes the same stupid decisions and does the same chemistry-killing things, he’s “the greatest manager in Phillies history”. Are you kidding me? Let’s not forget the fact that they had people at important coaching positions who Charlie couldn’t force to do what he wanted either (which you know is why they got fired in that offseason), guys who had been not just managers in the past but winning ones. That way, they could balance out Charlie’s bad decisions and he wasn’t in complete control. He should’ve been fired after 09 and that was obvious. His decisions cost the Phillies the World Series that year, and his teams have never once played the game the right way or played up to their potential, which is the most important part of his job as a manager. He is the reason they lose, and if last night didn’t make that obvious then I don’t know what will. His decision to use Madson in Game 1 when his team was up by more than 5 runs was ridiculous too, and I knew when he did it that the Phillies would lose the next game.. and they did.
This is not how a championship team plays baseball. They have underachieved the entire season. It’s time to bring in a manager who will hold himself accountable, who will only accept his players playing to their potential, and who will get the most out of this team, while developing rookies the way good managers do.
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You draw baseless conclusions.
For example how does using Madson in Game 1 make Cliff Lee unable to hold a 4 run lead in Game 2?
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No, I don’t.
He used Madson in a game when he clearly did not have to. That’s exactly what the Cardinals wanted was to get into the Phillies bullpen in that game. They didn’t do it. He gave it to them. How is that a good manager?
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Furthermore, you address the least important part of my argument. Manuel has shown all season, every season exactly why he should be fired.
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Do you watch baseball? All managers make mistakes it is called being human, yes Charlie sticks to his veterans a little much, but his upside is he is a hitting genius (ex. Thome (Indians days), Werth, Vic, Mayberry, and others I am forgetting).
“This is not how a championship team plays baseball. They have underachieved the entire season.”
When did they underachieve, they passed their expected wins by about 6-8 wins, Utley was out until late May. Charlie is likely Top Three in Manager of the Year. I am sorry but no manager is going to make Ibanez less streaky at 39 and I am pretty sure God himself can’t stop Howard from swinging at a slider away.
Look at how he handled the bullpen with all of the injuries this year, sure Bastardo burnt out, but RAJ didn’t exactly give him another LHP in the pen.
If Charlie is to be fired it is because his message has gotten stale in the clubhouse (ala Francona in Boston), but unless I am missing something the players all listen to him and respect him.
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Good managers don’t make mistakes. Stop making excuses for one of the worst managers the Phillies have ever had. They won 100 games? Ladi-frickin-da. Show me how he didn’t cost them the WS in 09 though, or the NLCS in 2010, or this series. Show me how his lineup has played to its potential or how his players have never been lazy. You can’t, because his players underachieve and always have. He got fired in Cleveland after much less time than he was the manager here. He’s gotten a break because, despite how awful he has been in his entire time here (with more of a payroll than Bowa ever had), the Mets collapsed in 2007 and 2008, and even 2009 in case you forgot, and the Braves, Marlins, and Nats haven’t been much competition. He’s won a weak division.. more like had it handed to him in every year but this one, and you can’t give him credit for guys like Halladay and Lee and Hamels, etc having great years. He makes bad decisions and never takes responsibility for them, does things like get ejected so that people think “Oh he’s such a great manager. He cares”, and because the Phillies won in 08, a fluke, by playing in that post-season the exact opposite of the way they played throughout every season and postseason before and since under Manuel, people just push everything aside. People seem to completely forget just how many things had to go right for that to happen, none of which were because of Manuel, as well as them not facing the Cubs who had won 100 games that year, or the Red Sox who were in the ALCS. They do the same thing with Andy Reid. People here, even people who aren’t bandwagon fans, want to annoint the first coach that does anything, no matter how mediocre he is, just because they can’t stand losing. I’d rather lose and fix the problems than stay mediocre or above-average and have them continue to plague the team and the deserving fans who have been watching their whole lives.
I’ve watched over 100 games since 2003. Don’t ever question my fanhood. If people want to anoint Charlie as all of these things and heap praise on him then he better be deserving of it, which he isn’t. Good managers win ballgames through their managing. Look at the real dynasties, the real superior teams in baseball. You don’t see them underachieve. No good manager with a team like this would ever lose in the first round of the playoffs to an inferior team.
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Maybe Ryne Sandberg is the next guy…..but it will have to wait until 2013, Charlie is here in 2012…..but as he approaches 70 things change…..except for maybe Joe Paterno.
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@True Phan
Why does Charlie not get credit for the pitchers doing well, but he gets blamed for the hitters not hitting?
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Because Charlie has nothing to do with the pitching staff… He gives all responsibility to Dubee.
He’s a hitting coach who manages the team. He preaches the philosophies.
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You’re an idiot. And congrats on watching more than 100 games in 9 seasons, that’s what 11 games per season out of 162? How do you do it?
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Two televisions I’m guessing.
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I think he means he pays for the tixs and goes down to the ‘Bank’ for that many games.
I also drop a few nickles every year to see the lads in person………but after a few beers and one juicy Schmidter I am no way able to be critical of any’s play or any coach’s decisions.
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I would not fire Charlie Manuel now but I think you have to sit down with him and demand from him that he needs to change his offensive approach drastically especially with Ryan out. I would swallow our pride and ask Davey Lopes back as we have a slow team and we need to relearn how to steal bases. Another option is to make Ryne Sandberg as the bench coach and manager in waiting. With Sandberg I can almost guarantee that everyone but Ryan Howard will know how to bunt, steal bases or move the runners over consistently as he did with the Iron Pigs.
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You can argue all day about that Cholly has done in the past pro and con. But the truth is he is not the right manager for the “new Phillies”. They need to get young and he is overly dedicated to
vets.
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I may just be dreaming here, but I I wonder what it would take to entice the Royals to talk about Alex Gordon? He’s coming off a breakout season, but he’s also going to be a free agent in 2013, and the Royals showed last offseason that they’re willing to listen on players like that. He played LF last season, but he came up as a third baseman. Maybe the price at the moment would be too high (I assume it would probably start with Brown and Worley) but I would much rather see the Phils upgrade by adding players entering their prime, rather than retreads.
Here’s an MLBTR item on Gordon’s contract situation:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/alex-gordon-royals-plan-to-discuss-extension.html
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Wait, should clarify, he still has two more arb years–hits free agency after 2013.
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I have enjoyed reading the comments from many of you over the last few days. It’s comforting to know that there are others that have taken what happened in this series to heart as much as I have. I didn’t want to post right away because of the holiday and because I didn’t want to write anything driven by frustration and anger. After taking a few fays to reflect over Friday’s game, I offer the following observations:
1) It is inconceivable to me that, over the last 17 innings of the series, this team scored one run single run generated by a fluke hit and a wild pitch. I realize that this team has been feast or famine on offense all season, but this just staggering. I gave them sort of a pass last season because the Giants have excellent pitching, top to bottom. The Cardinals however are a different story, especially in the bullpen. Why do I think this happened?? The Phillies stopped respecting the offensive part of the game. The hitters didn’t work counts or seem to have any type of game plan at the plate. As younger players, some of these guys showed more patience than they have as veteran players. It’s supposed to be the other way around. Maybe Charlie gave them too much latitude, but it still falls on the players, in my humble opinions.
2) So now what? It’s obvious that changes need to be made. Every nucleus, even a good one like the Phillies, has a certain shelf life. It was that way with the great teams of the 1976-1981 and it’s that way now. It is entirely possible that there could be new faces at third, short, first and left on opening day. Although this is only my speculation, I think that the Phillies will get a veteran right handed bat to complement Brown in left and a lefty veteran handed bat to complement Mayberry at first. If Jimmy insists on a 5 year deal, he is gone. I don’t blame the team at all. It would be hard to justify paying him a big salary in years 4 and 5 of the contract, especially if his recent leg troubles are an indication of what is to come. I am hoping that the Phillies and Rafael Furcal can match on a 3 year deal, especially with the Cardinals being pre-occupied with Albert. If not, Galvis is an excellent fielder and would be a capable replacement defensively. However, a declining Utley and a rookie shortstop make Placido Polanco a luxury that this team can’t afford. To me, third base is the biggest quandary of the off-season. Maybe the scouts can find a lefty bat ( a Greg Dobbs type) to platoon with Placido. Maybe there is a veteran type with a little more power who would take a I year deal. There will be some openings on the pitching staff because Oswalt, Lidge and quite possibly Madson won’t be back (he’s a Scott Boras client so he’ll go to the highest bidder). Those slots will likely be filled internally, at least to start the season .
3) As disappointed as I am over the Cardinals series, some perspective is needed. In the late 1990’s and into the early 2000’s, I was convinced that the glory days of the 1970’s would never be seen here again. A terrible team playing in a big ugly park that was 1/3 full at best on most nights. Stars yammering to be traded (Schilling, Rolen). Management that seemed to be content with mediocrity and making a small profit with no overall desire to win, This recent run was a party and I enjoyed every minute of it. The party is over and it’s necessary to clean up afterwards. Citizens Bank Park is a beautiful facility and the team’s recent success makes this an attractive place to play. There is a strobg nucleus still in place and this can be fixed with the right guidance
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Well said.
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One thing thaat has been on my mind, that you alluded to is defense. The last 2 playoff loses, the Phils were better than their opponents in that area. I kept thinking esp. in the Giants series that a key error would cost them a game. But looking back over the those 11 playoff games not once did that happen. The Phillies being better defensively did not turn out to be a factor. Over 162 games it always does. The Cards were average in the field the Giants below average. I guess the only important thing is to get to the playoffs and when there play better than your opponent, the previous 162 mean nothing.
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I thought defense made a difference in our series with St. Louis and that the Cardinals defense was noticeably better. They made more great OF catches, Molina was better than Ruiz, Furcal showed better range than Rollins.
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Wow I can’t believe some would hang this on Charlie???? Anyway it will be highly entertaining this off season to see how Ruben conjures up a fix for this dilemma. I’m really torn over Rollins, as I think everything starts with him. I want him back but not for a 5 Year deal. Jimmy is going to find tough competition because the Teams that need a SS will certainly look at Betancourt as a lesser option than Jose Reyes but maybe a notch above Rollins (as he pertains to a 5 Year Deal)
I don’t think you go crazy with Madson. There is good competition out there at this position.
Having said that you do need to get creative in a few areas with some trades. I had a wish during game five and that was we could somehow move Howard after the season. I don’t see how that is doable with his injury now. I guess what would be natural is to look for upgrades at 3B and LF.
Alex Gordon is a great name. Had a higher OPS than Howard, struck out less than Howard. Athletic enough to Play LF or 1B not sure about 3B but obviously he’s done it. It would be painful in what we’d have to give up to get him. Kubel/Cuddyer would be other guys I would look hard at. Or as much as i don’t like him Willingham is going to be out there.
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This is not a team of stars any more except for the Big Three starters.
Victorino and Pence are the closest to All Star status in the lineup but that’s it.
I can see more platoon situations next year.
Mayberry/Brown in left, Polanco and someone else at third, shortstop if JRoll leaves and until Howard comes back, first base as well.
If Rollins and/or Madson leave accept the compensation and replace with type B free agents.
This team needs real options at many positions.
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Its been a few days but the pain lingers on. It should be a very interesting offseason with lots of small moves. I suspect that Jimmy will not be back and the Phils will look to add a veteran SS and hope that Galvis is ready in 2013 if not late 2012. They need a 3B but couldn’t find a 3B a few years ago when they signed Polanco so I’m not sure what they do here. They can’t go into next season expecting Polanco to play 150 games. I expect they’ll sign a veteran to play 1B until Howard gets back in June timeframe. Thome and Giambi are real possibilities to play 2 months and then sit on the bench as a bat. In left, they’ll find someone who hits lefthanded to share LF with Mayberry who can also play some 1B. Brown will definitely open in AAA and play without pressure. In the rotation, I expect they’ll try to get Oswalt ro stay for a lesser salary but they’ll probably lose him. They’ll definitely keep KK, pitching is too hard to come by and they’ll either sign Madson for real money or sign another veteran closer. There’s no way you take this rotation into the season without an experienced closer. Papelbon is a possibility because I don’t see him going back to Boston. This is a 102 win team that didn’t get it done. If Cliff Lee held the lead in Game 2 we don’t get to game 5 and we’re playing the Brewers now and we all still would be feeling confident. RAJ will not overreact but he sees the weaknesses. Jimmy’s range was terrible this year although his arm and glove were still very reliable. Valdez has even less range and isn’t the answer as a starter although he may be for a year if they think that Galvis is close to being ready. I fully expect them to sign another lefty for the pen like they tried to do last year. The kids will battle it out for one spot in the pen depending on Contreras’ health. Closer, Bastardo, Stutes, Herndon, KK, 2nd lefty, and a kid. With Doc, Lee and Hamels, we’ll still be very good next year and can’t add too many kids.
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If you are going to shell out that kind of money for a closer… why Papelbon? Papelbon peaked years ago and hasn’t been the same guy the last couple seasons while Madson meanwhile has been a muuuch better pitcher. The only reason you let Madson walk is if he wants too much money. Considering Papelbon is probably going to command the same amount if not more it makes no sense to downgrade that position.
Some execs have speculated that with so many closers on the market this offseason Madson might take something like 2 year 14 million deal similar to what Valverde recently did. He can get some short term security, build up his closing resume and rehit the market in 2 years to get a bigger deal.
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Perhaps Roy O. can close for 3/$30M. Smoltz did the change for a three year period at age 35..
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Oswalt doesn’t have closer’s stuff (at least he doesn’t any more). It would be a crazy gamble with $30 million. It’s a much better idea to just let Oswalt go and pay Madson that kind of money.
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…….meant if Madson and agent Boras decide to walk wanting more.
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I’d do 3 years, $24 million in a heartbeat. I think, however, that Madson is going to command between $27 million and $33 million. If you forced me to handicap, I’d say 3 years, $30 million. Not sure if it will be with the Phillies or not.
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Berkman for 1st Base then Leftfield
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He already signed an extension to stay with the Cardinals next year.
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Cholly does seem to have an issue with keeping coachs….except of course Rich Dubee….but all the rest of his staff have come and gone. Especially the bench coach types. Mack may be the next to go. Whats up with that?
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Well, he’s on the list for a manager’s job in Boston. Not much Charlie can do about that! It’s actually flattering to the organization.
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Given the list of needs, even from a non-panic perspective, I wonder if they bite the bullet and go over the luxury tax threshold?
I would try to re-sign Madson and Rollins, but strongly suspect from what I’ve read that both players will test the FA waters unless absolutely bowled over by an offer from the Phillies – which they won’t be. So … if Rollins and Madson leave, about 20 to 25 million to play with, assuming they don’t go over the luxury tax (won’t repeat the math on this, everone who has systematically gone over the payroll for next year arrives at a similar number), and the following possible holes:
(1) SS – definitely (again, we are assuming Rollins leaves). They won’t, and shouldn’t, give the job to Galvis in 2011.
(2) Closer – probably. Bastardo’s shakey final weeks of the season reduce the already low likelihood that he gets the job in 2011.
(3) First base fill in, or right handed hitting LF – probably. Mayberry could fill in at first base, but that leaves a hole in LF (and I say that even as a Brown fan who thinks he we be the full time LF by the AS break and do very well).
(4) 5th Starter – maybe. I think they give the job to Kendrick.
(5) Third base – probably not, for better or worse. They will stick with Polanco.
Given the current thin minor league system (and I agree that there will be breakout players next year, but that won’t help them this winter), and age & contract status of the current roster, trades are unlikely to fill the holes, so we are looking at mainly FA aquisitions. Going to be hard to fill those holes with 25 million.
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What Mr larrym! No thoughts on Benny?
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I agreed from the start he was miscast as a regular, so I won’t tout him to step in as a platoon regular RF while Howard is out. He’s not even a guy with an extreme platoon split, a point in his favor in most respects, but not as a platoon player. He’ll be offered arbitration and be the 5th OF.
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Rotation I see as Halladay/Lee/Hamels/Worley/Blanton. They’re on the hook for Blanton’s salary so no reason not to give him innings if he can get the job done. Don’t need a great performance there, just a 95 ERA+ would be good enough for a fifth starter.
Domonic Brown I figure should at least be as good as Raul Ibanez. Could Brown match or outperform .245/.289/.419? That seems more than reasonable. And it’s not like Ibanez is a great defender so not much lost on defense. I’d put Brown in left on opening day and let him play.
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Really cannot understand the poor rap on Raul’s defense from so many experts…..Ruben says Raul plays an above-average defense in LF and they were satisfied with his dedicated work ethic, his efforts and results out in the field. Can you really say that about Domo?
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Marphis, is that you? What else would Amaro say? Come on, Ibanez is regarded universally throughout baseball as a lousy fielder, seeing him play confirms that evaluation, even ignoring fielding metrics (which probably do overstate just how bad he was this year, but provide further confirmation that he was lousy). Of course Ibanez also can’t hit anymore, so the thought of bringing him back is laughable. Though Amaro’s judgement isn’t always the best, so I wouldn’t rule it out.
The list of available players who would be better than Ibanez in LF for the Phillies next year is hundreds of players long, including several players in the Phillies’ organization starting with Brown and Mayberry. I just got finished saying that I don’t see Francisco as an alternative there, but over the course of the season he would be at least 2 wins better than Ibanez. Heck, I’d put Derrick Mitchell there before Ibanez, and he is a guy who needs to improve significantly just to become a viable 4th OF candidate. If “better than Ibanez” were the standard, filling the hole would be easy. But that isn’t the standard.
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From what I read, Blanton’s injury makes it unlikely he will pitch in a starting role, if at all, next year.
I’d do the same with Brown. But I don’t think the Phillies will.
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If Blanton’s injury is that suppresive, then it would dictate that he goes to the bullpen in 2012…more then likey as a long guy/7th inning type.
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Maybe Charlie should be fired? I fall into the camp where I don’t think an MLB manager has a lot of effect on the games outside of the clubhouse.
This is the 3rd straight series loss where we’ve been out maneuvered and out coached. We see the same struggling veterans not get benched. The manager fills the same line up card out every day. Pujols gets more days off than Chase Utley and Ryan Howard got combined in 2008-2009.
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The players are the reasons for Charlie’s success. I think he’s starting to lose the clubhouse. If you look at how the Red Sox played under Francona when he lost them, we might be starting to see the same thing.
I believe as long as a manager keeps the club house together and doesn’t make a move that screws the team over… but Cliff Lee was gassed in game 2 and he threw him out there to give up the go ahead run. He’s an awful game day manager. They win despite him.
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Why the reference to 2008 and 2009 and not 2010 and 2011—three years ago all were younger and stronger? I would suspect when a guy is 28/29 years old,,,he shouldn’t need as much rest as someone older!
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Bob Costas said today that his ‘sabrmetric’ guys told him that the WORST team in baseball will beat the BEST record team in the league 15 out of 100 times in a short 5 game series. So the loss is just baseball as he says
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Even if that were true (it sounds plausible), THE CARDINALS AREN’T THE WORST TEAM IN BASEBALL!!!! More likely, the Cadinals beat the Phillies in a best of 5 series something like 40 times out of a hundred. Which shows that the actual result is more a product of random chance than anything else.
Look, I am as upset about what happened as anybody. I am a partial season ticket holder. Unlike the fellow who said he watched 100 games over the last 10 years, I would say that I probably see a good 120-130 games a year – so I’ll see his 100 and raise him a thousand! I was at Game 5. I am in agony.
That having been said, I think most of the comments I have read about the team, Charlie Manuel and even Ruben Amaro have been absolutely moronic. Sorry, I don’t like to insult other posters, but my teenage sons make a hell of a lot more sense than some of the folks who are writing in over the last few days. I don’t have time for a detailed comment, but when I do, I will try to help make sense of this all.
For the time being, remember that nobody, and I mean nobody, can throw out 3 starting pitchers the way this team can and that is likely not going to change over the next 3, so simmer down and stop it already. It’s ugly and most of the ranting is nonsensical.
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I agree completely that it’s stupid to put much if any weight on the playoff results, and I mostly agree that the panic in this thread is overdone. But IMO you and PP and some others go a bit far in the other direction. Even setting aside your 3 year comment about the starting pitching – a lot can happen in 3 years, the possible loss of Hamels to FA only being one example – there are casues for concern. The core is not only aging, but apparently aging rapidly (Polanco, of course, is at the stage where we should expect a sharp decline; Ultley and Howard not so much, but Howard’s body type and Ultley’s play style suggest in both cases the possibility of a premature steep aging curve, and recent performance seems to bear this out. Ruiz had his second best tear, but is going to be 33, old for a catcher. Victorino will be 31.). The offense was mediocre this year, and between Howard’s injury, Rollin’s possible departure, and a continued aging curve, it may be worse next year. Of course there are some counterveiling factors – Brown, e.g., and possibly a FA signing or two, though not likely an impact one. Some might argue that full year’s from Pence and Mayberry might help, and they may, but I see some regression from both likely – that will roughly cancel out the advantage of more PA from those guys.
So for next year, basically you should have the best pitching staff in baseball, but a mediocre or sub mediocre offense. That should be enough to get into the post season, and if things break right, maybe they can add another championship. But the hitting remains a concern. And one serious injury to the big three could mean missing the post season altogether.
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Eh, I find it hard to believe they miss the post season all tohgether…largely depends on LF, and what they do at 3B..(considering we remain somewhat injury managable)
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I don’t think it’s likely, but is possible. Just considering normal aging, the Howard injury, the loss of Rollins, and some reversion to the mean on the pitching, I see them now as a 95 win team next year. An injury to one of the big 3 could mean another 4-5 fewer wins. The Braves get their act together at all, and 90-91 wins leaves you fighting for the wild card.
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charlie was outmanaged in the series (i would’ve benched polanco and started valdez at some point and moved pence back to fifth in the order) but la russa did some questionable things, too. having carpenter go on three days’ rest looked like a disaster till his offense bailed him out.
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Just want to throw out something alittle crazy. Since valle is closer to the show does anyone think trying him at 3B and being agressive with Rupp as C would be a good idea? It is possible without the strain of catching maybe valle can tap into his power potential and rupp showed signs of life last year. I also don’t see chooch needing to replaced for a few years, and really all the Phils need is a guy who can call a game. Just a crazy idea to throw out
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As long as he can stick behind the plate defensively, Valle will stay there. Ruiz is only signed through next season, and as much as they like him that might be one position where they would have a chance to fill a vacancy from within and get better offensively come 2013.
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This has nothing to do with players or prospects but there is one thing I really do not understand, maybe someone will have some insight towards this because it has been bothering me. The last game of the season against Atlanta, why did they win that game? I understand that it is a respect thing in baseball and is one of the unwritten rules that you don’t purposely roll over because its unfair to the other teams competing for a playoff spot. But, once the Cardinals win, it would have made sense to lose and force the one game playoff. If the Braves win, we would have had the D-Backs who I think we matched up much better against than the Cards. If the Cards win, they would have had to use their top available starter, most likely dipped into the bullpen. Plus they would have had to travel on friday and play saturday and would have had less time to prepare for the Phillies.
Getting the franchise record in wins was nice and all, but seems hollow at this point without a ring. Also I know the Phils were bouncing back from the losing streak and wanted to build momentum going into the playoffs and they hate the Braves, but come on I feel like the advantages of forcing the one game playoff really outweighs these interests.
My apologies if someone already stated this…I only made it through about half of the comments
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Bravo Bravo ! Fed your ego lose in the post season. Now you can see why they brought Pete Rose into town. Too bad he was banned 🙂
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CGPhilly……there is a ring of sensibilty in that statement. I have seen professional teams ‘tank’ in the season for better drafting opportunities, Penguins for Lemieux, come to mind right off, in early 80s, and Celtics a few years ago (which backfired more or less on them), But, in any event, its spilt milk now. Cholly , I bet, if the same situation comes up next year, will think twice about it.
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To be fair the Bravos were given the opportunity to win. Blanton started, Hamels only pitched 3 innings. The last 5 innings were against Stutes, Schwimer, De Fratus and Herndon. If you were going to pick 4 guys out of the pen to face late those would be them.
But what it comes down to is you gotta believe in your own team. While I agree the Cards were a tougher match up, but the team needs to believe they are the best and to be the best you need to be able to beat anyone. Didn’t work out that way in the end but I can see the thinking behind that.
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Feed not fed bad fingers bad.
Whatever changes they make the only thing that can completely take the team out of contention is bad FAs. You know “he plays because he has to”.
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Larry, I need your input/ opinion on something.
You through your support of DBrown as a player are better versed in his stats than most (if not all). What are your thoughts on Brown batting lead off in 2012? (Obviously this hypothesis is based on the scenario of Rollins not returning, but in this I’m assuming that Hamels and Madson are resigned and Rollins is not.) We can certainly argue these semantics later….
If this season, and ultimately series showed its that the Phillies still cannot/ will not take a pitch. Ryan Howard led the team with 75 walks – which is pathetic in its on right. It is more so when you consider he swings at every 3-0 pitch even in the vicinity of the plate, desperately trying NOT to walk. I understand that this stat is warped as Utley really only played half of a season, however the remaining regulars true inability to get on base (Ibanez the most glaring example) was poison to their post season hopes.
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The one thing you can say for (almost) certain about Brown is that he’ll help with that specific problem. His BB rate was excellant (best on the team) – and not an aberation, based upon his minor league performance – even during his otherwise disappointing late AAA stint he got plenty of BB. His BA should be higher – not simply because his BABIP was on the low side, but because he is the type of player whose batted ball characteristics, combined with his speed (IF hits), and yes, his minor league performance, suggest a player who will have a signficantly higher than average BABIP over the long run.
The one minor question mark about Brown as a hitter is his power. Even with the injury, which probably sapped his power to some extent, he was not horrible in that respect – but obviously the Phillies want to see more power from him. And they almost certainly will. The question is how much – even setting aside the fact that there could be some lingering issues from the injury – it is the type of injury that can take an extraordinarily long time to fully heal – his minor league performance (and batted ball characteristics, actually) doesn’t necessarily point to a guy with 30 to 35 HR power. I kind of see Brown as a guy who, in his better seasons, is more of a (say) .305/.400/.490 kind of hitter, with maybe 25 HR – maybe a bit more of an upside than that, I’m being conservative.
Of course the fielding issues are real (although again IMO somewhat exagerated by some). That could keep him from becoming the regular next year, at least to start the season, though IMO it shouldn’t.
I bashed Amaro some, though for specific issues, acknowledging some strengths and obvious successes, but I do see some room for concern on that issue. He has made some statements which suggest insufficient appreciation of the importance of plate discipline. Moreover, the team BB rate has declined rather dramatically during his reign – 9.8% to 9.3% to 9.3% to 8.9% to 8.6%. (Though to be clear and in his defense, much of that is not attributible to his decisions.)
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I think the offense will be fine IF the following changes occur:
1. Manuel adapts to his roster and starts managing the team for 3 – 4 run games instead of 3 – 4 run innings.
2. Chase comes back healthy (just hoping since they now know what is wrong with his knee and seemed to have identified exercises/physical therapies that helped him during this season).
3. Ryan comes back healthy AND with a new attitude on hitting. He has to acknowledge the clear fact that the league has a BOOK on how to pitch to him and his impatience only helps the pitchers. Whether it is getting closer to the plate, developing a 2-strike swing, taking walks, lighter bat, etc. whatever will minimize his obvious weaknesses at the plate. He will have a whole offseason plus rehab time to look at video, talk to the “experts”, and retool his hitting.
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Ryan actually was much more patient this year at the plate than ever before. He averaged 4.13 pitchers per at bat. That was the 4th highest total in the league.
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Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story!
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There are a few things that get lost in the ongoing Howard debate, and this is one of them. His plate discipline and BB totals are actually decent. But of course his deficiencies – high K rate, declining power and BABIP, poor defense, poor base running – combined with the fact that, as a 1B, the hitting standard is so high, and his likely aging profile going forward – make the contract extension truly horrible.
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I think the reality is that this team was a few bad breaks away from moving on to the next round. Charlie didn’t manage any differently then he did in 2008, and LaRussa made some significant decisions that didn’t work as well (leaving Garcia in to face Ben). I do not think this team needs to be blown up, however taking a chance and remaking the roster wouldn’t hurt either. Just look at the Flyers (small sample size alert). I think one thing I would do is call up LA and see if they would have any interest in Cole Hamels. Maybe offer Cole, Dom Brown and a top minor Leaguer for Matt Kemp. If I am the Dogers I jump at this deal. To have the Top two left handers in the league and cost controlled prospects, even if Cole is only one year away from free agency. He is a west coast guy and would probably love to play for the Dogers. Then try to trade Shane for a replacement for Polonco. I would try to resign Jimmy more so then Madson, but alot of it would depend on what the asking price/yr. would be. Non of what I just mentioned is really neccisary IMO just a way to remake the roster if RAJ is so inclined.
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Amaro on the closer situation:
“I don’t feel comfortable with the guys we have internally. If Ryan does not sign, we might have to go outside the organization. There are some people in our system who think DeFratus or Aumont can do that, I am not convinced of that yet. “
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He was being honest. This is precisely what I expected he might say. Zero chance they will go with a rookie closer.
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Very suprise that Amaro would say he isn’t comfortable with his inhouse options for bullpen. Why would any gm say that going into the offseason?? makes no sense to me Downgrading you pen when you are looking to make trade. if true its a very stupid remark.Howard imo is still a good rbi and homerun hitter, for a least two or three years. The big difference in this team now is this.if a hamels leaves they will go out and get a cj wilson or someone just as good. They have proven to me they are in this to win,look winning the world series is crazy,the giants beat us win it and if I am right they cut the mvp of the world series,get little out of ross, who won it for them. luck is the key to winning. The world series against yankees two guys killed us if i remember right, and both didnt do a thing the following year with new teams. talking about damon and japanese player who name escapes me.We havent in the last two series gotten hot heading into the series. and it hurt us,Don’t understand all the people talking about getting new thirdbaseman. polanco was hurt, if healty he is very good. if there is money to spend for me its a left fielder who bats right or switch hits, maybe take a chance on a beltran if he doesnt want the world.
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Amaro’s comments today were ‘keeping it real’ in the truest sense. From the closer remarks to the hitter’s batting philosophy. The ‘veterans’ will have to adopt more of a plate discipline, hitting with 2-strike count and so forth. Very revealing. I gues changes are forthcoming.
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I feel like we are reading different interviews (for one thing, he said not a word about plate discipline). I found the interview incredibly depressing on a number of levels. But briefly:
(1) Answers which don’t reflect poorly on Amaro, but are depressing none the less – the fairly bleak comments regarding Utley’s knee, and the comment that the payroll isn’t likely to go up. Neither is surprising, but neither is good news.
(2) There are several comments which IMO reflect poorly on Amaro. (Keep in mind that, until the Pence trade, I was taking a wait and see attitude & often defended him.) His comments on the batters’ approaches were problematic. He did NOT say a word about plate discipline, and the absence of that was telling, given that he did otherwise address the subject. He talked instead about “situation hitting” and “hitting with 2 strikes,” and “HR hitting.” I think that shows a significant misunderstanding of what this year’s problems may have been. The issue also creeps up indirectly in his discussion of what might be wrong about Charlie’s offensive philosophy – not a word about plate discipline or BB, but talks about maybe getting some more .300 hitters. I mean, not that that would be a bad thing, but it confirms my impression from other comments and personal decisions that Amaro is not a fan of the BB. His comment about basically keeping Brown in AAA all next year was truly horrifying. The comment about the lack of internal closer options was stupid even if correct. There’s more, but those are some of the highlights.
The fact that Amaro did make some legitimately fine moves – trading for Blanton, trading for (and later signing) Lee, trading for Halliday, trading for Oswalt – and a few other moves that were at least defensible (e.g., signing Polanco) will probably keep some otherwise reasonable people (e.g., PP) from giving up on him for quite some time. And the team’s success, though mostly attributable to others, will keep him from losing his job for years. But I am increasingly convinced that Amaro is an anchor around the Phillies’ collective neck, and he may well be able to single handedly dissipate the many advantages the franchise has.
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larrym….your definition of plate discipline evidently is different then what I profess as plate dicipline—–when Ruben says the following I take it as a change at the hitting philosophy to be employed the veteran, thus a disciplined approach.
.’….we’re very much on the same page. Charlie is about getting a good ball to hit and capitalizing on it. He’s about grinding out hits. Charlie likes the home run. We all do. I do too. He’s come to the realization that its not just about the home run. A lot of different pieces of the puzzle to scoring runs. It’s not just about the home run. We just don’t have same offensive team that we had in 2008. We have to realize that and work with it … We should have more .300 hitters. These guys have the ability to do it, it’s whether they are committed to doing it or not.”
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I don’t think that our definitions are different. Unless you think plate discipline has nothing at all to do with BB (and to be clear, plate discipline is not JUST about BB, but it is a large component of it – or perhaps more accurately, a consequence of it), or with laying off of pitches out of the strike zone.
Rather, we are interpreting Amaro’s remarks differently. I don’t think they mean what you think they mean. I hope I’m wrong. Three years of other Amaro comments, plus personnel decisions, makes me think I am not. I do think the absence of the words “walk” or “base on balls” in the quote is revealing.
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H. Matsui…Japanese player.
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Polanco’s last 1800 regular season plate appearances is .287/.335/.377. Either he is in no way is very good when healthy or he’s never healthy. Either way, that position is one on the field that is a clear opportunity for an upgrade.
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What’s his strikeout rate compared to the league? Do you think this team is high strikeout rate team?
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Polanco has a low K rate, which is why he has had success as a hitter despite low BB rates and only okay power. But as he has gotten older, his K rate has increased, and his power has decreased. He’s gone from an above average major league hitter to a below average major league hitter. A not-unusual aging pattern.
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I’m with the crowd that believes we can re-tool on the fly. The Phils HAVE to….not taking advantage of the Halladay/Lee/Hamels trifecta while we got it would be an egregious decision.
1)Madson….anyone who believes he and/or Scott Boras will take anything less then what Papelbon is gonna get is fooling themselves. This is Madson’s ONE big chance at a massive payday, and he should take it. That payday can’t come from the Phils and there are a myriad of options in house and out…..saves are one of the easiest things to find in baseball. Matt Capps, Mike Gonzalez….hell, even Kerry Wood could all be cheapish options. I’m also not unconvinced that Bastardo or Stutes couldn’t handle it.
2)1b….Howard is and will be one of the greatest Phillies ever. The contract was ill timed…..get over it. Mayberry could work…but so could a Casey Kotchman or Thome
3)Dom Brown in LF….period….end of story….is he flawed??? sure….does he have the tools?? Absolutely, only an angry fool would say otherwise. Could the Phils lure Hermida or Ankiel?? Sure…we need the bench help desperately and could spell Brown.
4)SS….JRoll is giving every indication that he wants another payday….shouldn’t come from us. He was a great Phil, I wish him well. Put Galvis on the short list….he’s no Starlin Castro, but the SS FA pool is depressing at best. Maybe swing a trade (but with what?) or take a chance on a FA
the 2011 Phils SHOULD have done better and No One wants to be the Braves of the 90’s….the pieces are here
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Agree with most all your points…..but ‘saves are one of the easiest things to find in baseball’ can be argued, in that, blown saves, or should I say, the lack of them, is what is paramount. Rarely does a team get to a World Series with high ‘blown saves’ numbers on their pens’ record.
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I thought the most interesting thing about the press conference was Amaro’s comment that some in the organization think that Freddy Galvis could be a major league shortstop right now. That seems like a major leap forward in the public assessment of him. I suspect that if Rollins leaves they’ll go into Spring Training with a three-way competition among Martinez, Valdez and Galvis. It’s hard to figure that they would devote free agent dollars to anyone other than Rollins, given the slim pickings beyond him and Reyes.
One other hot stove name to throw out there: Kevin Youkilis. Played well defensively at 3B this year for the Red Sox, or so I read, has the kind of selective approach at the plate people are talking about. Is signed through next year with an option, but the Red Sox have a prospect coming up and no place else to play him, and indications are he may be available. He’s often hurt, but with Polanco playing a kind of super-sub role that risk might be mitigated. Utley could play first and Polanco second while they wait for Howard to get back. Or maybe Youkilis could play first and Polanco third. Either way, it would potentially solve a lot of problems. Even in a down year, Youkilis’ OBP was .373 last year, which would have been second on the Phillies to Hunter Pence. Oh, and he’s righthanded with good power. I think he would like CBP.
Who knows what he would cost, of course. … But if the Red Sox are motivated to move him, he could be a very good fit for this team.
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He walks too much for Amaro.
Serious, he is not an Amaro kind of player, and there is no chance the Phillies would trade for him. Which is a shame, I agree he would be a nice fit.
Really I am so depressed about the Phillies’ hitting next year. I was not in panic mode, but there are real issues that need to be addressed, and Amaro is IMO a horrible evaluater of hitting talent (in fairness, he seems to be a fine evaluater of pitching talent).
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Well, yes and no on the pitching talent. It doesn’t take a genius to evaluate that Halladay and Lee are pretty good.
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Well I was trying to say something nice about him. 🙂 Let’s just say I don’t have the concerns about his evaluation of pitching talent that I have about his evaluation of hitting talent.
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Truly, has Amaro had to make a critical decision on hitting talents….Rollins, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ruiz, Victorino were all in place when he took the reigns from Gillick. So perhaps his report card is not yet complete.
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Fair enough. I just don’t like the trend line, or his “batting average.”. Ibanez was terrible for 2 out of three years of his contract. Polanco, while I sort of liked the signing at the time, though I thought 3 years was too much, has not hit well at all. Mayberry is sort of the opposite – not that there was much downside to the trade, but certainly he has worked out very well. Still he fits in with the low BB trend. Pence obviously is at a higher level than those guys, but has to be to justify the cost in prospects.. The jury is still out on that deal, though as you know I don’t like it. Again, on a career basis he also fits into the low(ish) BB trend, though his actual performance with the Phillies was fine in that regard. And then we have bench guys; I’ve actually defended him to some extent on that count, but when guys start getting 200, 300 plate appearances, the fact that they can’t hit at all (and again, we’re talking low BB guys) starts to matter.
Maybe he will surprise me this winter.
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In Ruben’s defense, he seems to be saying the right things about needing to change their approach at the plate, better at bats, swinging better with two strikes, etc. Here’s what he said at the press conference:
“We have to have a different mindset or different approach than we did in ‘08 or 2010. We don’t have nearly as much power, have to be better with two strikes, better situational at-bats. Those are frankly things we have to change.”
Of course, people around the Phillies have been saying that for 3-4 years now, and it doesn’t seem like anything ever does change. But maybe Ruben realizes its time to switch out some personnel. Here’s the full transcript:
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/Amaro-press-conference.html
Also, his comments on Utley were pretty disheartening. He sounded far more long-term pessimistic about him than about Howard, hard as that is to believe.
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As I said above, I don’t see those comments as being the “right thing.” Far from it. Situational hitting? No. Power? That’s not an approach issue – and if he tries to make it one, that could lead to a much worse approach. Hitting with 2 strikes? Well maybe. But not at or near the top of the list. Again, not a word about plate discipline.
I’m not going to beat a dead horse, but I see his comments here as further evidence that Amaro just doesn’t understand how successful baseball offenses work.
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Larry, see my comment below. I think the issue isn’t plate discipline as much as pitch recognition. They take pitches as much as any team, but they tend to take strikes.
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Yeah, I saw your comment. I’m not disagreeing with you, really. My points are: (1) Plate discipline or pitch recognition, whichever, it doesn’t seem to be on Amaro’s radar. And (2) I’m not so much concerned about Amaro being wrong about the current Phillies’ hitters. Frankly the chance that a group of veteran players already past 30 are going to make significant changes in their approach is low at best. What concerns me is that Amaro, in evaluating hitters, doesn’t seem to value the BB. 20 years ago that would not be a fatal flaw. But in today’s game, with every other team valuing BB, that will inevitably lead in fairly short order to a team that rarely takes a walk. Over the long haul, that is not a successful way to build an offense.
And of course it is not just this interview that makes me see that. Its also prior comments and personnel choices. Look at the players added by Amaro – they all – with the exception of Brown, who was mishandled and now seems consigned to another year in AAA – players with sub-par BB%. Pence was surprisingly good in that regard, but when the trade was made his career BB% was below average. Polanco, Mayberry, Ibanez … whatever you can say about any of them, none of them can take a walk.
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Sorry, didn’t see your comments on this above until you mentioned them, as they were on some other portion of the thread. Doesn’t situational hitting imply discipline? Just looking at the overall theme of his comments, I think what he’s trying to say is that they don’t hit for power as much anymore so they need to get more men on base, which means taking more walk. I’ve always assumed that cliches like “a better approach at the plate” and “situational hitting” encompass an awareness of the strike zone.
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That’s a more charitable reading and I hope you are correct.
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Sam Perlozzo walked three times ,had seven hits, and stole no bases.
Davey Lopes walked 833 times, had 1671 hits, 557 stolen bases.
Enough said
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Although in a wider defense of your “Ruben doesn’t really understand hitting” point, take a gander at his baseball reference page. Best season was 1996, hit .316 in 130 plate appearances … with 9 walks. 9!
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/amaroru02.shtml
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Billy Beane walked 11 times in 315 career appearances, FWIW.
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Just for fun, the hitter with the best plate discipline on the Phillies this year was…Michael Schwimer. Small sample size though.
Looking at Fangraphs, the Phillies were 16th in the majors at the percentage of pitches swung at outside the strike zone. Last out of the 8 playoff teams. However, they took more pitches IN the strike zone the strike zone than any other team. I think what you get is a kind of forced plate discipline. Players being coached to take pitches, but not really executing the concept as a whole. This separates teams like the Yankees who take pitches and create offense, and teams like the Athletics who take pitches for the sake of taking pitches. (The Athletics swing less than any team in baseball.) Simply put, the Phillies are taking pitches, but they are taking the wrong pitches.
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Perhaps……….Ruben’s evaluation and summation is management’s tactful way of saying…..things are going to change prior to 2012 and and high salaried personnel, way above the pay-level of a Valdez/Martinez et al, will be moved.
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I don’t get that sense. I get the sense (mainly from other sources, but to some extent from his comments in this article) that, unfortunately, the one significant player who may be moved is Brown. That would be a huge mistake.
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It does appear JRoll is vacating the premise….he wants the 5th year ‘at his option’—unfortunately it doesn’t work like that, and JRoll knows that, just a ruse for him to take the best offer in the FA market…and he is entitled. Shane predicts the possibility of major personnel moves in his address today. So apparently the players sense a changeover is forthcoming.
Concerning Brown, Ruben says he would like him to get 500plus ABs at AAA….seriously, that is another whole year’s worth of minor league seasoning. Perhaps, that is an indication of admission that they did in fact hamper Brown;s development, who knows!
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Well yeah, I think Rollins is gone, sadly. I wasn’t including the free agents. I still don’t see a major changeover among the non-FAs – I think there are just too many constraints – most of the key players are not very tradeable IMO, for contractual and other reasons. The two guys with the most trade value are probably Pence and Hamels. Trading either would open up a significant hole – and that’s coming from a critic of the original Pence trade.
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I wouldn’t take much of what RAJ says tooo seriously. Remember when we couldn’t afford Lee, or Drabek was untouchable.
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Well there is that. If I was going only on what he said, as opposed to what he did, I would have lost faith in him much sooner. 🙂
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Ditto that….I totally forgot all about those remarks a few years back.
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Kevin Kouzmanoff is a free agent. He’s worth an NRI, I believe he’s good defensively and he has some pop.
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And only 30-years old. His career OBP-.300 is not remarkable but like you said he has pop and in the “Bank” he has favorable conditions.
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Kouzmanoff! I would rather be forced to paint the Walt Whitman while upside down.
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I witnessed one of his shots at the ‘Bank’ while he was with the Pads back in ’08 or ’09. He has good size and strength. So he has a 20% K rate……fits right in.
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I’m not actually as down on him as you might expect, given how heavily I weigh on base skills – but the question is whether he can also play some OF, since I would see him as a bench guy who could provide a little more pop than the typical bench guy for the Phillies lately, and spell Polanco at 3B with good D. An NRI target for sure, maybe even a low dollar one year FA contract.
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Listening to RAJ on the way home last night he has a difficult task in front of him. How to you deal not knowing what your 4 Hitter is going to be. Mayberry while suitable for a game here or there would probably get exposed as an everyday 1B-You may have to look at a Derrick Lee or Carlos Pena Until Howard comes back.
Even still if and when Howard does come back you still need a true 5 hitter if you assume Pence is taking over the role of 3 Hitter. Aramis Ramirez would be a nice fit to replace Polanco…
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I’m seeing a lot of names that I don’t think are realistic. Yeah Ramirez would be a good fit, but likely too expensive, and I think the Cubs will be picking up his option anyway.
I probably have somewhat of a reputation for negativity, but I have a hard time seeing how they will be in a position to acquire a real impact player this winter, because of salary constraints and the fact that the current, probably temporary, lack of tradeable minor leaguers will make a big trade acquisition unlikely. (Actually my fear is that they will put Brown on the market – but as much as I like him, I have a hard time seeing them get an impact player for him without adding another top prospect, which would IMO be an even bigger mistake.)
Despite what I said elsewhere about Rizzotti, I DO think that, all else being equal, for better or worse, they may well go after a left fielder. (My Rizzotti suggestion assumed that they would not. But I think we’re looking more at a name like Josh Willingham, at best. (And again probably not him in particular because he isn’t a Amaro type of player IMO.)
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I’ve seen an estimate for Willingham of 8 million per year for 2 years. If that’s right, he would be a nice target – except that that really blocks Brown, which would be a mistake.
Someone made the interesting suggestion of trading Victorino and plugging in Mayberry in center. I don’t know if Mayberry’s defense will play there long term, but his hitting (with IMO a likely regression) certainly would look better in center than left. Of course, it depends upon what Victorino could bring in a trade.
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Oh, another thing. Someone suggested Rizzotti as a fill in for Howard. I was all set to list the many reasons why it would be a bad move … and I couldn’t come up with much. I mean, no, I don’t think he is good enough to be a full time regular, but might be okay as a fill in for a couple of months, when most of the options are problematic.. Mayberry would be better, but might be needed in LF since Amaro seems intent on wasting a year of Brown’s career. Lee or Pena would be better options, even at this stage of their careers, but both would be at least somewhat pricey, and both guys are probably looking for a full time job (and probably will get one, despite their declines).
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What about Ben Francisco in left, Mayberry/Rizzotti at first for a month?
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I don’t think a .900 OPS from a 25 year old in Reading translates as well as you think it does. Over a full season, I would expect from the Riz anywhere from a .720-.770 OPS with very bad defense. At 1b, that is below replacement level.
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Let’s see .. Mitch Moreland was a slightly above replacement level 1B this year. OPS .734, poor defense. Rizzotti would, I think, be a little better as a hitter, a little worse in the field. So no, not a guy you want as a long term regular. But as a short term fill in … generally speaking, that’s what you can reasonably expect. Players substantially above replacement level get full time jobs for someone, and get paid accordingly.
So it’s not that I don’t understand how AA stats translate, it’s that you (and some others) have unreasonable expectations about what we can expect from a short term fill in. Mayberry would, indeed, exceed my expectations, but he will be needed in LF (and, if not, might be batter cast in a platoon role with Rizzotti, as suggested by Alan).
Best case, we could sign Lee of Pena for, say, 10 million for a one year contract. I think they may each get more. And even if I’m wrong, they’ll go where they have a full time job. But even if I am doubly wrong, and the Phillies could pick up one of them, I don’t think 10 million for a slight upgrade at 1B for one or two months is worth it. Heck, even 5 million will be pushing it. Both players, despite being in decline, are simply still more valuable to someone as full time players.
Now, if it turns out that the prognosis is worse for Howard than currently expected, we will need to consider a Lee/Pena type option.
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And to continue with the Moreland comp: they are really similar in a lot of respects, except Moreland is probably a bit better defensively, and Rizzotti walks a little more (comparing their minor league performances). They’re the same age. I’m not saying that Rizzotti is a long term solution, at all. If he gets 500 career major league PA I’ll be surprised. But I do think it’s interesting that one of these guys is playing more or less full time for one of the last 4 teams standing, and the other guy is supposedly not good enough to even be considered for a temporary fill in role.
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I don’t think “slightly above replacement level” means what you think it does.
He also played 30% of his games in RF, which no doubt lowered the Offensive WAR expectations. And he was league average as a defensive 1b.
And still below Replacement.
And great argument about the Rangers. MM played a huge role in that.
You also don’t seem to realize that another alternative would be to sign an OF as opposed to a 1b. Or a 3b. or a 2b. I don’t know who the best alternative would be Swisher?). But I don’t think Rizzotti is it.
I mean, unless you are happy with Below Replacement. I have higher expectations.
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If you want below replacement, just resign Ibanez.
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And really that sums up the debate, but not in the way you think. Ibanez is WAY below replacement level, just awful. And even worse if you consider that, while not playing 1B, by forcing Mayberry from LF to first, he would indirectly be filling in at first base. Ibanez’ OPS was .708. Rizzotti would be a better hitter even if he only managed the low end of Will’s estimate (and again, I think his estimate is a good one, though I think Rizzotti would be on the high end of it). Considerably better if he hit the high end. Add to that the fact that his advantage over Ibanez is probably OBP, not power (I can see Rizzotti around .255/340/.420), and his edge as a hitter over Ibanez increases, as on a point for point basis OBP is more valuable than SLG%. Defensively, at his position he’s as bad as or worse than Rizzotti. And he would cost more, maybe not a lot more, but somewhat more. And people are, with a straight face, arguing that Ibanez should be re-signed. Rizzotti OTOH would IMO be right around replacement level.
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Let’s be honest Larry, if Brown isn’t ready by early next year to step into a significant role in LF (at least platoon player) then, well “Houston we have a problem”. There’s only so long you can hold his hand, wipe his mouth and hope he turns into half the player we’ve been told he can be. At 25 its time to step to the plate, for lack of a better word.
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Rick,
Umm, Brown doesn’t control the organization. I’m sure he’ll be ready. But it looks like the organization has already decided not to give him a shot. One reason why I have completely given up on Amaro.
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No I understand that. I guess I was implying that he needs to perform at a level during ST that leaves them no choice. On the flip side, if he’s done enough damage to his image over the past 18 months that they’re not even considering him for the LF spot next year then again – we have a problem.
Like I said to you the other day, I’d love to see him in LF and leading off. His BB and K rates are very intriguing to go along with his speed and potential power.
Really?? “Given up” on Amaro? I mean I have similar concerns over his lack of appreciation for OBP and OPS, his under valuing of the BB. But his entire body of work, while not great, certainly deserves some more time (at least this winter) to evaluate.
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Okay, I am maybe being a little hyperbolic. But every time Amaro opens his mouth, he makes me cringe. Really the comment on Brown was horrible – even if he feels that way, it’s not something you should say publicly.
The fact is that Brown’s performance doesn’t deserve that kind of reaction. At all. Yes we have a “problem” regarding Brown, but IMO that problem is 90% the result of organizational blindness and mismanagement of his career. And you can talk all you want about “perform at a level during ST that leaves them no choice,” but the simple fact is that Brown could easily arrive in spring training with a perfect attitude and ready to play, but end up with a mediocre performance simply through the magic of small sample size. It’s unfair to put that kind of expectation on him. He is not the kind of prospect who should have to have a transcendent spring in order to make the team.
And you know what? If he has to find success with another team – and until yesterday, I didn’t think it would come to that, but now I think the writing is on the wall and he will not be given a chance to succeed here – I will remain a Phillies fan, but I hope he hits a HR every AB against the Phillies.
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Some people like that he doesn’t pull punches. I guess in a town where Andy Reid is one of your 4 teams GM’s and he either isn’t telling you anything or deliberately lying, I can understand why Amaro’s bluntness is appreciated.
I agree with you that their has been some mismanagement of Brown’s career but it also seems that I’m more willing to lay some (a deserving amount) of blame at the foot of Brown. I think some would look past his poor offensive performance if he defensive performance wasn’t so ridiculously bad. Effort and head’s up play can compensate for a lot and he certainly didn’t take advantage.
In the end, I’m just hoping for a direct 180′ from his winter/ spring of 2011. Getting sent home for rest. Hearing about batting stances and the rest of the nonsense. Come ready to play and play his way onto the field.
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To kind of expand upon the point about Amaro’s comment about Brown, the team presumably wants Brown motivated to succeed and ready to play next season. How does a statement that he’s going to be getting – what was it – 500 AB in the minors accomplish that? Wouldn’t it be better to say something like “if Brown does what he needs to do, he will be given a chance to win the major league LF job next season.” That’s not hard, is it? And if they WON’T give him that chance – which IMO would be an indictment of the organization – then at least don’t say so publicly. Okay, in a perfect world, Brown should be motivated regardless, but human nature being what it is, why say something that seems almost calculated to destroy his confidence and motivation?
I mean, yes, I know Amaro is constantly talking out of his … posterior. But really, set aside his moves, which have been mixed, but some have certainly been good – is there a GM in baseball who consistently says stupider things than Amaro?
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Well I don’t think his hitting performance was “poor.” He had fine BB and K numbers. He had some poor BIP luck. His power was a little disappointing, almost certainly as a result of the injury. (And how is it that people can ignore the injury in evaluating his season?)
His fielding was poor. I am not inclined to see that as an effort issue. The fact that he failed to run out a ground ball … yeah, that kind of thing upsets the fans. It IMO doesn’t mean much aside from that.
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I’m still not getting where you are getting below replacement. Moreland, per Fangraphs, was .4 win above replacement. Yeah, that is influenced a little by time in the OF, but I think Rizzotti, comparing minor league performances and making reasonable projections on MLE, would be a better hitter. Not a lot better, but towards the upper end of your estimate. He would be around replacement level. You’re living in the past, hitting standards have changed a lot int he past 2 years.
So we sign an OF? Well, we could. But it’s going to be even harder to find an adequate hitter who will be willing to sign for what is essentially a bench role. An OF who can hit better than Rizzotti is going to be looking for, and probably getting, a full time job (and being paid accordingly). There were 30 – thirty!! – outfielders this year who played full time with an OPS under .770 – and a bunch of them under .720. As for 3B, 2B, etc., even less likely that we can sign someone at a reasonable price for an essentially part time role. I agree that .720 to .770 OPS is low for 1B – though in current conditions not as low as you think – but at any other position, that is enough that SOMEONE will give you a full time job. Heck, at 2B/3B (and of course SS and C) that’s better than average. There’s talk of, for example, Josh Willingham, who would be a nice fit (though not an Amaro kind of player), and yes, better than Rizzotti CERTAINLY, but he’s going to get some decent money and a full time job somewhere.
Now, if I’m building a team, and looking for a full time 1B, I want someone better. And for that reason, and because he is not a good fit as a bench player, But I think that you are frankly borderline delusional in terms of your expectations of a fill in first baseman. In essence, a fill in for a player out for (say) a month is ALMOST BY DEFINITION a replacement level player. If a player is out much longer than that, you bite the bullet and get someone better. Or sometimes you are lucky enough to have someone better already in the organization. (Which of course the Phillies do, but they seem intent on wasting Brown’s talent.)
Look, my initial reaction was the same as yours. But it just doesn’t stand up to rational analysis.
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larrym….why so much hate for me!
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No hatred from me. I’m sure you are a nice guy – really, your fellow players voted you the second nicest player in baseball!! And you’ve had a nice career, made a lot of money from the game. (Good for you! You’ve earned it!) But it’s time to hang them up, spend some time with your lovely wife and four children.
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But really, Swisher? Really? I mean, not that he wouldn’t be better, a LOT better, but even if you can get him, Swisher is not the kind of guy that you pick up to fill in as a regular for a month and then relegate to a bench role.
Now, IF the Phillies decide that they don’t like their options in LF, that Brown needs another year in AAA and Mayberry isn’t the answer, sure, go ahead, upgrade LF. Good luck getting Swisher – I mean, the Yankees will almost certainly exercise his option, and there would be a fairly steep price trading for him, even if the Yankees were willing to do so. But yes, IF the Phillies want to go after a full time LF, Mayberry can fill in just fine for Howard, and Rizzotti can fulfill his destiny as a career minor leaguer.
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I’m actually kind of intrigued to see what Rizzotti would do if given an actual shot in the majors, if only because it would end the going-on-three-year debate between Big-Endians and Little-Endians over the Rizz on this site. At the very least, I figure he probably gets a longer look in Spring Training this year.
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I’m actually kind of surprised that his fan club isn’t chiming in here. I’m a Rizzotti skeptic, and if I can advocate a fill-in role for him next year, I would expect his fans to be going crazy over the possibility.
I do think that if there is no big signing for a LF or 1B this winter (and there are higher priorities IMO, though as I said a LF signing is possible), Rizzotti will certainly be in a position where a big spring could earn him some time filling in for Howard. I think the other options on the current roster (taking both positions together, LF and 1B) are either worse (e.g., Gload – ugh) or unlikely (sadly, the best option, Mayberry filling in at 1B while Brown plays LF).
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I think the Rizz fans are too busy advocating for Ruben to sign Thome, the once and future great white hope. I suppose that might not be so bad, if it were for really cheap and afterward he would be willing to accept playing a Gload/Stairs big lefthanded bat off the bench type role, but maybe he’s too much of a DH at this point.
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It would appear, IMO, that Amaro may be postering to package Domo Brown in an off-season blockbuster–the next 6/7 weeks we should know.
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Larrym – I wouldn’t over-react to RAJ’s comments on Dom playing in AAA. I believe those comments are meant to take ALL pressure off Dom in spring training next year. He wants the media and fans to see him as a AAA player and that way the only thing that can happen is he meets or exceeds expectations. If they say now they want him to be the LF in 2012, it puts a bullseye on him…
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Not to beat a dead horse, and ultimately none of us can read Amaro’s mind. But I had totally missed this part of the interview. I think it encapsulates Amaro’s thinking, supports my interpretation of his comments, and is a cause for concern:
“Polly is the kind of guy that we’re trying to strive to have more readily at our disposal. Those are the kinds of at-bats. He works the count, he understands the importance of making contract with two strikes. Those are the things we’re looking to improve [overall].”
Here’s the thing. Polanco has an approach that worked for him, and can work for some players. He’s a high contact rate, low(ish) BB rate player. As PP has correctly noted, BB rate is not as important for a high contact, low K hitter like Polanco. But IMO, as a general rule, his type of contact skills are (a) relatively rare, and (b) hard to coach for – you either have them or you don’t. Trying to encourage most players to follow that sort of approach is unwise – you end up producing high K/low BB players, because most players don’t have Polanco’s contact skills. That’s IMO especially true for power guys, who don’t generally have the sort of swing that’s going to generate a high contact rate.
I think it also reinforces my doubts that Amaro understands the value of BB generally. Again, for some players the Polanco approach works, but you don’t win with having Polanco type players throughout your lineup.
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OTOH, Manuel’s comments today, while ostensibly agreeing with Amaro, seem more on the mark. And he’s the guy in the dug out. Though Amaro is the guy making personnel decisions. So who knows.
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While I agree with much of what you say, there is an obvious point about OBP that is not made often enough: hits are better than walks. Whatever a hitter’s OBP is, the more his OBP comes from hits and the less from walks, the better.
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giants won with polanco type players. why the hatred for polanco, like he is the only one who didnt hit in the playoffs. the guy was hurt. not a bad ball player.maybe losing some of his skills, but still a nice fielding thirdbasemen and decent hitter.
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No hate from me. My point, which was made pretty clearly, is that most players can’t succeed with an approach like his. Now, separately, he IS suffering significant age related decline as a hitter; given the 3 year trend line, not sure how much you can blame the injury for that. But given the dearth of options at 3B, and his still stellar defense, I am not on the “replace Polanco” bandwagon.
The Giants comment is problematic for a number of reasons which should be obvious to people who follow major league baseball.
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Placido Polanco hit .398 in April, essentially made the All-Star team based on that. The rest of the season he hit .243/.304/.287. Take that for what it’s worth, I think it’s extremely problematic going forward.
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Agreed. More importantly, what was his average from May 1 on? .220?? That can’t happen and have this team win the WS.
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Just to play the devil’s advocate, 3B has been a black hole offensively on this team for the last decade (David Bell/Abe Nunez/Pedro Feliz) and they’ve been fine. The Phillies did not miss the World Series because their sixth or seventh-best offensive player didn’t hit in the playoffs.
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The question when did Polanco get hurt and why oh why did they get it fixed.
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I don’t have a hatred for Polanco, just the fact that he is a below-average major league third baseman (I posted his recent numbers elsewhere in the comments section) and that is an obvious position that the Phillies could look to upgrade. He seems like an awfully nice guy though.
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Polanco’s short comings on defense have to be measured with a grain of salt…a .977% is below average, however if he were throwing to Mark Teixeira, the 5 throwing errors may be 2 or 3 less, all of sudden his % rises to respectability.
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No one would advocate replacing Polanco based on his fielding percentage. 8 errors this year, that’s one every 20 games. Hardly an issue. (.977 is the best Fielding percentage at 3B in the league, FWIW.)
Fielding percentage isn’t the best indicator of defense. But Polanco’s advanced statistics point to good defense. My own eyes say Polanco is good on defense. The problem isn’t Polanco’s defense at all. It’s his declining offense. Polanco just turned 36. He’s far more likely to go backwards than see any kind of rebound. And if he replicates his numbers from May onwards, it gets to a point where your typical AAA third baseman is a better option.
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Polanco’s defense was unsurprisingly elite in 2011 – it passed both the eye test and the sabermetric test, as he ranked first in baseball with 14.0 runs saved – but he offered the Phillies very little in the way of offense
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When Utley and Rollins were providing unusual power for a middle-infield combination, it was fine having a 3B like Polanco with no power, but an excellent glove, a .350+ OBP, and few strikeouts. Utley provided the offense of a good 3B, and Polanco provided the offense of a good 2B.
The situation has changed. While Rollins’ offense has not changed much, that of Polanco and Utley has. Polanco’s BA and OBP have been down the last three years. Utley seems to have lost power the last two.
Polanco is now better suited to a super-utility role. The problem with that is there are few power-hitting 3Bs available and none at a reasonable price.
The best names I can find are Headley, Callaspo and Moustakas. Only Moustakas has shown any power, but he is unproven as a major leaguer and he may not be available. Of the other two, Callaspo might be the better fit since he has a good glove and plays multiple positions. Callaspo is also young (28) and capable of providing a .350+ OBP.
The remaining power shortage could possibly be made up in LF.
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Some have said that the Phils took too many pitches. That they awarded Carpenter strike one. I have too look that up after my old timer nap
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So estmation by R Howard and FO is his return approx EOM April- BOM May 2012…..so we only need Rizz to man the fort for a short period……its a cinch! .
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Platelet rich plasma injections will expedite the healing process for Ryan Howard so 5/6 months is a good estimation for recovery.
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I would avoid any transfusion not from my own body except in life threatening times. Transfusion to help healing I would really have to know the donors. Many blood products are compiled THAT is a no-no for me.
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wheels….maybe I am wrong on this, but Johns Hopkins I believe, is using his own to stimulate the healing.
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I find it interesting that every assumption about the offseason (including the smoke signals our of the organization) begins with John Mayberry playing a major role next season. It would be interesting to go back and look at the dire things everyone said about Mayberry last offseason. I only point this out in order to say that it’s not out of the realm of the possibility that the Phillies find their left field solution in Domonic Brown next year. Sometimes, as with Mayberry, the light goes on–it just takes a little time. By saying that he expects him to have 600 ABs in AAA next season, Ruben is certainly taking the offseason focus off Brown–he’s likely to come to Spring Training as something of an afterthought, with little pressure/expectations. Who knows, maybe the GM is cannier than we give him credit for.
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Ruben is canny ……..can never figure out what his next move will be. I would not put it pass him to try and go out and get someone like Matt Kemp from LA.
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ACA…..I am wondering, can Mayberry turn into a modified version of the next Nelson Cruz, Mike Morse or a Jayson Werth….a late bloomer as a major impact player. On the defensive side in the OF, he is equal to Werth IMO…glove, speed and arm.
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Even if he were to stay what he is this season past its an upgrade considering he is a plus defender. I would like to see Rahul come back and assume Gloads spot of the bench and spell Mayberry a few starts in LF.
Next and call me crazy if you like but if the Brewers are resolved to the fact they are losing Prince would they consider some type of deal for Howard? Would RAJ pay $150+ for Prince….would Prince take that….IDK but I’d sure give it a shot.
Even if I miss on Prince I’ve freed up some $ to make up the production in some other areas and really cut down on some strikeouts.
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DMAR…some talk in NY…if Mets lose Reyes to FA, then use $$$ to go after Prince.
BTW,,,,,spring training tickets will go on sale January 12.
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If the Brewers can’t afford Fielder how are they going to afford Howard’s 5-$125M contract?
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In real numbers Howard would be owed $115 thru 2016; 2017 is an option year at $23 or a $10 buyout. Stranger deals have been made the Angels for some odd reason picked up the Vernon Wells Deal.
Maybe the Brewers can afford that I don’t know. I have to think Prince gets a Texeira type deal and maybe that is to steep for the Brewers. I agree its a pipe dream and the injury probably precludes it from happening but you still have to talk about it if you’re RAJ.
You have 2 teams that will potentially lose their all star 1Bs and another in the Cubs looking for a long term solution there. Just sayin I’m not afraid to talk about moving Howard.
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Braun is already on record today saying that Reyes would be ideal for the Brewers, if Prince leaves, which is expected. Betancout would be available as a ss, if Reyes signs with Brewers.
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Please say no to Betancourt. 😦 He is terrible. I’d much rather have Galvis take over, even though I think Galvis is not ready.
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The reported deal was that the Phillies would pay 1/3 of Howard’s salary to the Brewers but I did not hear of any particular players involved in the trade.
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I hate to say that, but the Phillies couldn’t give away Howard at this point with that contract & his injury. If they paid half of his remaining salary, they could possibly find a team to take him, but wouldn’t get any meaningful return in terms of players or prospects.
Raul … I’ve had my say on that. I can think of about 10 players in the organization currently, and dozens (at least) players in other organizations that could be had for almost nothing, who would fill that role better. Even aside from the fact that Ibanez is cooked, his lack of positional flexibility makes him a horrible fit for that role (and yes I know that Gload’s injury made him positional inflexible as well; it would be idiotic to enter a season with such a limited player, and, despite my criticisms, I don’t think the Phillies are idiots.
Fielder is a pipe dream. Now, if they hadn’t handed that contract out to Howard ….
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I’m interested from the aspect that some of the same people who constantly (and correctly) make the sample size argument have abandoned that with respect to Mayberry’s 2011 season.
Hopefully he has turned the corner and is now a solid option as a starter but 296 PA’s of success while being protected against many righties (he had just 176 PAs against RHP) isn’t enough for me to feel comfortable with just handing him the LF job in 2011 and expecting him to match his .850 OPS in 600 at-bats.
The Phillies need to add depth to their outfield with someone who can be a viable starting option if needed.
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I’m not sure I see many if any people doing that – I’d say those of us who understand sample size believe that there will be some regression. That said, I was never as negative about Mayberry as some around here; I thought he could be a decent 4th/5th OF (and of course he ALWAYS was a viable platoon guy, with the caveat that the trend towards 12 man pitching staffs, along with some other trends, has made plattooning more dificult). I mean, the man certainly CAN hit lefties, he has legitimate plus power, and he is a decent fielder.
His performance this season, while certainly subject to all sorts of sample size concerns, can’t simply be dismissed entirely on that basis, and provides some evidence that he might be more than that. Me, I’d still plug Brown in left, and use Mayberry as a 4th OF and 1B back up, giving him around 300 PA, disproportionately against lefties.
As for “The Phillies need to add depth to their outfield with someone who can be a viable starting option if needed,” the problem there is that “viable starting options” generally get jobs as regulars and paid accordingly. Mayberry and, yes, Francisico, are at the upper end of what you can reasonably expect from back up outfielders. Even a guy like Berkman, and let’s face it, that level of success on a reclamation project comes along maybe once every 10 years, even if he signs for relative peanuts, is going to sign somewhere where he is more or less promised a full time job.
So that leaves the Phillies either going with Mayberry or Brown in LF, with Francisco maybe getting some starts while Mayberry is filling in at first, or signing someone like Willingham for two years, relegating Mayberry to a bench role and Brown to AAA, or, more likely, another organization. That would IMO be a mistake. I think the Phillies need to spend their resources replacing Rollins; granted, the FA pickings are slim other than Reyes, but at least kick the tires on Reyes, so to speak, and maybe explore a trade for a SS.
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Heh, two interesting back to back posts on MLBTraderumors.com – Ramirez is going to decline is option if the Cubs don’t give him a multi-year deal (I don’t think he will get one from them), and Manuel wants an upgrade at 3B. I have mixed feelings to say the least. Ramirez would certainly be a big upgrade offensively, but a downgrade defensively, and would be quite expensive.
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There’s a difference between a “viable starter” and a everyday regular. Not advocating they spend $8-$10M for a LF but rather $3-$4M for a Schumaker type player who is a solid bench player who won’t get overly exposed with regular playing time.
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I’m not rejecting the option, as my Jones post shows. I just don’t really see it as a priority. Maybe if they don’t offer arb to Francisco, but as it stands now they already have a couple of those kind of players on the roster already, plus Brown (granted one of those guys is going to be the regular). Schumaker isn’t as good as Mayberry IMO, and is about as good as Francisco (albeit a very different kind of player). It just seems to me that, if you have serious doubts about Mayberry (and don’t get me started about Brown), then the solution (a bad one, IMO), is to get a Willingham type player, an arguable upgrade. Even if Mayberry regresses signficantly, Schumaker is not an upgrade.
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2011 version of Mayberry is better, previous to 2010 version? not so much. But Schumaker was used as an example, not as my choice. I’d have to look at who’s available.
As for Brown, your advocacy for him (and Francisco) is admirable but he’s not ready to be the everyday LF in 2011 based on his collapse in 2010. I still think he will become a solid regular within the next couple of years but for someone who states that the Phillies have mismanaged his career I don’t see how pushing him into a starting role before he’s ready, especially defensively, helps.
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I won’t do the detailed comp with Shumaker, but IMO even a significant regression leaves Mayberry ahead. Obviously pre-2011 major league data on Mayberry is quite limited, making it hard to know what the baseline is. My point is that, if you assume that Mayberry is merely an average major league hitter (a conservative assumption; his current career major league 127 wOBA, albeit with a small sample size), with average major league defensive and base running skills (reasonable assumptions IMO), you’re not going to find many if any bench type players who can exceed that. There are plenty of those types of players starting in the OF in the majors (not that that should be your aspiration; if that’s all that Mayberry is, he won’t keep a job as a regular in Philadelphia).
As for Brown, I guess we just have fundamentally different ideas about what went wrong this year. The mishandling consists of jerking him back and forth (and possibly rushing him back from the injury). As a hitter he doesn’t need another day in AAA. As a fielder, he can work on that up here as easily in AAA. There are plenty of left fielders, now and historically, who were worse and had successful careers. I simply don’t buy that there was any kind of “attitude” problem that needs correcting. Some players have a longer adjustment period than others – the solution it to let them play, not jerk them back and forth between the majors and AAA. I will add that, generally when Brown’s name comes up in the national press, the take on him is usually closer to mine than what I might call the “Philadelphia consensus.”
Sadly it is a moot point, as it’s now clear to me that Brown will never get a chance to succeed in Philadelphia. For him, moving on would be for the best. As a selfish Phillies’ fan, though, I hope I am wrong and he is given a fair chance.
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Using Fangraph’s metrics, I count 20 – twenty – major league outfielders with enough AB to qualify for the batting title who were below average major league players overall. Now, if Mayberry is “only” a major league average hitter, and average as a fielder and base runner, he would be better than most of those guys (about 16 of them, by my count). So players who are CLEARLY better than even a pessimistic assessment of Mayberry … get jobs as regulars with someone.
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Okay, I am at the same time beating a dead horse AND neglecting work, but looking at the Marcel projection system, which is probably the most reliable system that isn’t behind a pay wall, he projected Mayberry to be a roughly league average hitter BEFORE this season. Obviously, any reasonable projection system should incorporate this season’s results to some extent. So yes, a league average hitter is probably his floor at this point. If I had to give a ball park estimate, it would probably put him closer to a 110 wOBA, 10% above average. That is IMO still on the conservative side, and would IMO NOT be good enough for him to be a long term regular for the Phillies, but WOULD make him a pretty awesome bench guy, as well as eventually a regular for a non-contender. And he might indeed be better than that.
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And at further risk of beating a dead horse – the fact that Mayberry’s improvement in 2011 was mostly driven by an improved K% (as opposed to, e.g., an unsustainable increase in BABIP), increases the chance that he’ll be able to sustain the improvement. Taking that into account, as well as various subjective accounts of his changed approach, I’m inclined to think that, if anything, I am too pessimistic about his future (though he is still almost certain to regress somewhat, and his low BB rate will keep him from quite becoming the next Jayson Werth).
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I’m enjoying reading all the Larry love for Mayberry, a player that Larry somewhat casually dismissed a few months ago. But a least Larry allows accumulated facts to modify his opinion.
What happened is that Mayberry truly improved by leaps and bounds. He has great athletic ability, speed, power, fielding prowess and an approach at the plate that is far better than that taken by most of team’s more experienced players. He is also extraordinarily bright. I get the sense that a lot of his improvement comes directly as a result of coaching by Manuel who I expect will be far more hands on next year.
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Catch,
I never “dismissed” Mayberry. It’s true that I wasn’t one of the people who – somewhat prematurely IMO – wanted to annoint him a regular early(ish) in the season, but nor was I one of the people who dismissed him as a major league player. And even now, while pushing back against the notion that we need someone like Schumaker as Mayberry failure insurance, I’m still not 100% sold on him as a full time regular. Yes, I did change my opinion somewhat over the course of the season, but as you say, that’s a good thing, as I changed my opinion to account for the facts.
It’s also important to thank about the circumstances where 296 PA can be a meaningful sample size. Without going on at my typical length, I’ll note that I would certainly be much more dismissive of a player whose similar improvement was primarily BABIP based, and much more skeptical, at least, of (say) a 30 year old player who had a half season out of the context of an established major league career. But a youngish guy like Mayberry, who signficantly improves his K rate … well that means something, even in 296 PA, and even if it maybe doesn’t mean quite as much as his admirers think.
When I am flat out wrong about a player, I’ll admit it. I don’t think this is one of those times – except in the sense that certainly he played better than I (and just about everyone) expected. Now, that “Free AEC” dude, or whatever he called himself, who hasn’t been seen around these parts lately, but was sure that Mayberry didn’t belong on a major league roster – he sure as heck was flat out wrong about Mayberry.
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Also – as I think I make clear in a prior comment – while I do give some weight to the anecdotal/subjective comments about Mayberry, similar to what you relate, I do take them with a grain of salt. You ALWAYS hear that kind of stuff when a player exceeds expectations, and more often than not the player regresses to his norm anyway.
But sometimes not, and, for reasons statistical and otherwise, I do agree that Mayberry may be one of those guys who takes a dramatic leap forward at a somewhat older than normal age.
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And here’s a guy who I might take a flier on for that “someone who can be a viable starting option if needed” role: Andruw Jones. If he could be signed for a reasonable price, without promising him a role as a full time regular, he would be a nice pick up.
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LarryM……’Okay, I am at the same time beating a dead horse AND neglecting work’….you work! Well all be….here all this time I thought you were Apple’s newest innovated computer generated app…..iscout!
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Certainly Amaro is someone whose utterings can’t always be taken at face value (ironic for a guy with a reputation as a straight talker). And obviously I hope you are right. But … granted that none of us know Brown personally, and none of us are psychologists, your scenario doesn’t ring true to me. If Brown really is the kind of guy who will wilt under the pressure of competing for a major league job, then his critics are right. I don’t think they are. OTOH, it would be simple human nature to be discouraged and demoralized by being told that you aren’t even being given a chance to compete for the major league job. Unless Brown is being told something differently by Amaro privately – I still don’t think that makes sense, but it would be less idiotic than Amaro’s public statement on the issue.
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I guess my theory is that Amaro sees little downside in setting next year’s expectations for Brown a bit lower. If he turns up in Spring Training looking relatively competent in left (and let’s face it, our views of his abject horrendousness there are shaped by that one video compilation of a particularly miserable AAA game) and performs better at the plate (and let’s face it, short of spontaneously combusting at the first sight of a curveball, there’s nothing he could do that would be *less* impressive than last spring) … well, people are suddenly going to take another look at the underlying potential, as we’ll start to hear the “Free Dom Brown” chants, just like we heard with Mayberry.
I’m not saying this is likely to happen, or that he’ll be playing left field in Philly come April, but I think that perceptions of him have shifted so radically that there’s bound to be a correction. And that can only be good for Dom Brown’s confidence in the long run.
Finally, one last thing: listening to Amaro talk down Brown’s abilities, I guess we can reasonably assume the Phillies aren’t going to trade him?
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Appears that Ed Wade will be an American League GM soon. Announcement could take place after Series. Unless the new owner decides to move on without Ed Wade.
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I may be alone in thinking that the manager deserves some criticism here. While you can question the moves of any manager, I believe his biggest mistake is teh NO moves he makes. The approach to hitting is a result of the manager keeping the same 8 guys in the lineup regardless of production. There is no sense of urgency with the regular 8. Look at the teams we have lost to the past two years. The Giants and Cards shuffled guys in and out of the lineup based on match ups and production. The result, guys stepping up and contributing. Some of the best stretches of play for the Phils the past two years have been when guys have been out of the lineup. Last year, they played great down the stretch with Valdez at short. Perhaps because he does some of the little things. We could not sit Polanco in the series even watching the guy struggle?? Come On, Charlie. Jenkins/Werth; Coste/Ruiz; Dobbs/ Feliz gave you 3 good production spots in tandem. Ever since 08, it is like our guys have risen above that level-in the manager’s mind- and when they struggle–we lose!
time to let JRoll Roll, get on Shane to have more of a clue, make Polanco your super Utility guy and get a 3b. We will not win with this 8–will not, even with Mayberry replacing Ibanez. If there is any way to free up some $, the perfect fit is Reyes at ss, even though i can’t stand him. He brings quality AB’s and big time production to the top of the order. Our 30 year old guys are playing like they are 35; not running and getting hurt. Rueben shocked the world with Cliff Lee. I know he is too smart to bring this offense back. Look for Dom Brown to be dealt along with a guy like Stutes to bring back a young 3b.
This is not panic, but reality. Who did we beat in 08 that was really good? No one. The teams the past few years have been stronger and the focus has been on quality AB’s, not homeruns. We don’t produce enough of those and do not hit and run, squeeze or do anything to push runs across.Step up Rube and shake it up a little. Even the big boy could use the wake up call of his buddy hitting the trail. The time to win is NOW
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This may be a sort point but the failure to obtain a third base prospect or at least a power outfield prospect(dare I think both) will haunt this team. Even if Gillies works out,and we all have our fingers crossed, there were others in the farm system (Gose etc)and pitchers as well. Maybe in two years or so those three player will blossom but so will others. I go to bed at pray “no FAs”. The pitching will carry the team until midseason then if needed then TRADE.
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Furthermore this is not the time to lose draft picks.
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Well – I think a lot of guys are dreaming about possible trades. Big time. How can some people think that Brown is a failure who will never amount to anything, and who should be traded, and at the same time the main piece in a deal to get us a young thirdbaseman? The kind of young third baseman who would be a genuine upgrade – well, there aren’t that many, probably none of them are available, and all of them would take a heck of a lot more than Brown and Stutes (who might surprise but still isn’t well regarded enough to have much trade value – a classic example of a guy you don’t trade – Brown being in that category too for different reasons). So it’s silly to even speculate.
You know who is probably the one guy we should focus on as a FA? Not a sexy selection at all, but good hitter who can play a variety of positions, including 3B: Michael Cuddyer. He could in theory step in at third for Polanco; more likely, and even better, he could get 600 PA without being the front line starter anywhere, but starting games at 1B (while Howard is out), 2B, 3B (resting Utley and, especially, Polanco) and LF (letting Mayberry step in for Victorino on occassion).
Sure it doesn’t address the aging roster problem, but, given the current roster, the hopefully temporary relative lack of tradeable minor league talent, and payroll limitations, simply put there is no way to get significantly younger in the short run without making the team worse in the short run. (Of course starting Brown would help, but that doesn’t seem to be on Amaro’s agenda – and ironically some of the people engaing in magical thinking about possible trades are some of the people most down on Brown.)
As for Reyes, if I were the Phillies I’d give his agent a call but I would be surprised if they can afford to sign him.
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Mike Missanelli, Phila Inq: —–on JRoll.
“Earlier this year, way back at spring training, I sat down to do an interview with Rollins in front of his locker at Bright House Networks Field. I presented him with the information that fans (and for that matter, his own coaches) would like to see him be more selective as a leadoff hitter, giving a little more concern to his on-base percentage. He looked me in the eye and told me that, well, people are just going to have to keep complaining, because he wasn’t going to change a thing.
What is the root of this defiance? Does Jimmy Rollins feel he has been underappreciated as a Phillie?”
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As much as I preach the importance of plate discipline and BB, as a general rule a player Rollin’s age isn’t likely to change (much) in that regard, and might just screw himself up if he tried. And it isn’t as if Rollins is horrible in that regard, and he as improved as his career progressed; 9.2 BB% this season is better than league average. He is miscast as a lead off hitter, but that’s not his fault.
In terms of what was going on in Rollins’ head when Missanelli approached him in Spring training, it’s certainly possible that Rollins thought “dude, didn’t you notice that last year (2010) I walked in over 10% of my plate appearances, a career high,” but rather than point that out to a dumb ass reporter, he merely gave him a smart ass response? I mean, if so, more power to Rollins.
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Granted the reporter does have a cynical and caustic side to his personality….it would appear however that JRoll is sensitive to this line of questioning, especially from the OBP aspect. i have heard this reporter, in the past, criticize this lead-off hitter for an avergae OBP of around .325/330–prior to 2011—inferring that it is just too low for a lead-off hitter. But like you mentioned, JRoll has been miscast as the lead-off hitter. Moreover, in a course of a 162 game season, he will normally get his 700/725 PAs….but technically he only gets 162 PAs as a lead-off hitter. A smaller % of his total yearly PAs.
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My impression of Rollins, which was only reinforced by watching his excellent and frank press conference at the end of this season, is that he is an extremely smart guy–not just smart-for-baseball–and I’m sure that he saw there was little to be gained from trying to engage some idiot from WIP in a discussion about his OBP.
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But will he get a 5-year deal from the Phillies? Perhaps Ruben and the gang can break the bank a bit and go over the top with an offer to him with a three-year deal…say $15/16m per. That may sway to stay.
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Before 2007, Jimmy walked in 7.3 percent of his plate appearances and averaged 0.72 groundballs-per-flyballs, both of which are slightly below league average (and well below the normal production of most leadoff men). Over the last four seasons, he has improved his walk rate to 8.4 percent, but his groundball rate remains at 0.73
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Bob Brookover’s article in the Inquirer was interesting today, and it seems to treat it as a foregone conclusion that the Phillies will turn down Oswalt’s $16 million option. On the face of it, this seems like a no-brainer. But I’ve been wondering lately if it might not make some sense to pick it up. Consider:
1)The buyout is $2 million, so that’s a sunk cost. So the real additional cost of picking up the option is $14 million. Still a lot of money for a #4 starter. But…
2)Turning down Oswalt’s option means that the Phillies are counting on 2 of the 3 of Blanton/Worley/Kendrick to hold down the back end of the rotation all season. Or, if they’re worried about that prospect, picking up an innings-eating #4 in the FA market. But…
3)Those guys cost money/years, unless you do what the Yankees did this year and bring in a couple of reclamation projects. Even someone like Randy Wolf, who I consider kind of the definition of a #4 pitcher at this point in his career, has a 3 year/$30 million contract. So we can say the anticipated cost of a #4 starter is somewhere around $10 million.
4)Kendrick is due to make somewhere between $3-4 million in arbitration. If they exercised the option on Oswalt, and non-tendered Kendrick, the cost would net out to be somewhere around $10 million. You would get the upside possibility that Oswalt has a bounce-back year, and the downside possibility that … well, he basically performs the same as this year, but the good thing is, no long term commitment to him if that happens. You say goodbye to Kendrick, who has been a lot more useful than most people give him credit for, but I think the loser of the Blanton/Worley competition for the 5th starter slot could easily take over his role.
Of course, it would be great if we could use that $10 million to bring in a mashing free agent third baseman, but it seems like there aren’t any of those out there. On some reflection, I think it makes a lot more sense to fortify a position of strength.
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Why would they DFA Kendrick? Regardless of fan opinion, he provides value as a 5th/6th starter and it would be foolish to just let him walk. If anything, they would be smart to work out a deal to preempt arbitration and then deal him for some return.
As for Oswalts option, It’s bad use of resources to spend $14M for a 4th starter. By your own assessment, the top end price for a back of the rotation starter would be a Randy Wolf $10M per year. I expect they can find someone much cheaper to follow Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Worley in the rotation, most likely either Blanton or Kendrick until one or both show they can’t handle the job.
They just can’t keep resigning every player for another season and succeed in getting better and younger.
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What I’m saying is that if you non-tender Kendrick, you can apply that savings against the cost of retaining Oswalt. It’s not that Kendrick doesn’t provide value–I’m just saying that $3-4 million could be better devoted to, say, paying a portion of the salary of a veteran starting pitcher to be your number 4. It’s fine if you disagree–I realize there are lots of reasons why it might be better to say bye to Oswalt, keep Kendrick, and spent the remaining $10 million a hitter. I’m just skeptical about how much offense you’re going to get for that money. Why not keep a potentially really good pitcher on a one-year deal?
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Oswalt’s ERA over the last three years is 3.47. Kendrick’s is 4.08. I think Kendrick is worse than that. But if those numbers held, that’s something like 9 earned runs over 162 innings. I think if you have $7 million to play with, you’re better off improving the offense.
Especially since a lot of that pitching prowess is good defense. Put a quality defensive team on the field and it matters less who you put on the mound as long as they throw strikes. I think that has been the key to Kendrick’s survival the last few seasons.
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Not arguing that Oswalt isn’t a significantly better pitcher, just that he’s a costly luxury on a team with needs at other positions. the $10M salary difference between Kendrick and Oswalt in 2012 pays for a top flight closer, or a couple of pretty good bench players.
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My concern is that it won’t cost $10 million to get a top-flight closer. It will cost $30 million for three years, or something like that. It’s become increasingly evident, at least to me, that one of this team’s major problems is the number of dead-weight players they’re carrying in the final years of multi-year free agent deals. Last season it was Ibanez. Next season it will be Polanco, Blanton and (to a lesser extent) Contreras. Signing someone like Heath Bell or Madson to a 3/4 year deal when it appears there are viable in-house closing candidates (at least in the medium-term), or going out and getting a left fielder when there is at least a reasonable possibility that you could get value out of Mayberry and/or Brown there, seems short-sighted. I don’t think Oswalt is a #1 starter anymore. But I think he potentially is the best #4 in the league, and most importantly, you’re not making a long-term commitment to him. You have flexibility next year, when you’re going to really need it to pay Hamels.
Anyway, I think the argument is a bit academic, because it seems unlikely that they are going to exercise the option. Oswalt also has to agree to come back, which he may not want to do–the beat writers said he looked like a man on his way out the door. The Rangers, to name one team, are going to be looking for starting pitching this offseason–maybe they give him a couple of years instead of one.
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If you can’t move Blanton you just have to hope he now likes being in shape. But to tell you the truth he sounded like he worked about because there was nothing else to do. I quess ST will tell
the story. Worley is number 4 anyway. Therefore it is 14 mil on a fifth starter.
Which begs the question WHAT IF Worley had gotten the post season starts. hmmm
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Nothing. If Worley starts instead of Oswalt maybe it saves a run or two. Maybe not, hard to say. But the Phillies lost because they couldn’t score runs. Not because of their choice of a fourth starter.
Besides, Worley had a 4.05 ERA in September and gave up three hits and a walk to eight batters in the postseason. He wasn’t lights out.
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Maybe just maybe they talked the young pitchers into slumps with all the negative talk. Matt Moore didn’t look tired in his start.
BTW I caught an espn game on radio. They talked way too much. Sentences to make a point that needed three works. I kept yelling shut up.
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Vanimal….may come back down to earth in 2012.
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“Red Sox deny smear campaign” This is the thing I hate most about baseball. Everyone tries to justify themselves by downing out. And yes there is a smear campaign. So much more manly to keep you mouth shut and not air dirty laundry.
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“John Mayberry is going to get a chance to be a regular player,” Manuel said. “I think he will get to play more this coming season (2012) than he did this year. When I talked to John Mayberry last year at this time, Ruben Amaro and I thought it was time at his age and with the time he spent in minor leagues, to see if he could play in the big leagues. He proved that he can be a good big-league player. He will get every chance in the world to be a regular player.”
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