Baseball America has begun rolling out their league top 20 lists. These lists are always interesting, but I don’t really think you should draw too much from them. The Phillies had only one representative in the GCL this year, LHP Ethan Stewart, a 47th round pick in the 2010 draft. The scouting report, which I’ll paraphrase, praises his big frame, solid fastball, and his aptitude on the mound, noting that he already has a good idea of how to pitch and set up hitters.
I’m kind of surprised that neither Tyler Greene or Brian Pointer made the list. In the chat, Gustavo Gonzalez and Greene were both mentioned in a positive light. Take it for what its worth, just another data point.
Phuture Phillies 
I am so disgusted with baseball’s reluctance to equal the talent distribution playing field…teams like the Yankees throw big money at the Latin players then they claim they are great scouting clubs developing outstanding future MLB players. Hogwash….they just throw out their $3/4M every year to the Latin kids. Selig needs to rectify this injustice. A separate international draft of a few rounds would give all the teams a chance at the talented kids. Upwards of 25/30% of MLB players are original Latin signees. C’mon commissioner just do it!
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If all it takes is $3-4 million a year, then there’s no reason the Pirates, Royals, etc. are shut out. The Yankees have two international guys on the list. Hardly a travesty of justice. I don’t see a problem.
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Tampa has a better minor league system than the yanks or the red sox. I don’t see the big market has a unfair advantage argument. Who cares where you get the talent from.
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Do me a favor—check out their top ten—-the top four are inter signees—Montero, Sanchez, Banuelos and Betances. And that is what you see for many of the big spenders in the Latin market—check out the Braves. Pirates signed Luis Heredia for $$$$$—-he will be a top of the rotation guy, barring injuries, in 3/4 years.
And as for Tampa Bay—-duh….you draft in the top five from say 2002 to 2007 you better have exceptional prospects.
What you fail to see……the Yankees can sign the best free agent MLB players…still lose draft positions…but make it up in the bidding war in the Caribbean. A win-win proposition and method. A separate international draft puts everyone on a fair playing field.
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Betances was drafted from NY.
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True. Betances was drafted in the 8th round of the 2006 draft. Also, any decent prospects from the 2002 to 2007 drafts have reached the major leagues for Tampa Bay. But, don’t let facts bother you Ron.
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Oh please give me a break….larrym is so right….so many inconsiderate and stupid posters…..yuo miss the wholepoint of my arguement. And do not want to have to take the time to explain again.
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Matt Moore is ranked higher than all those players you listed. He was taken in the 8 th round of the daft. Every team passed on him multiple times. His signing bonus wasn’t 3 or 4 mill. Just throwing money at Latin players doesn’t mean they will be good MLB ‘ers. There’s a huge risk in dumping big money in any one player. I’d rather have every player the phils drafted in the last draft for around 5 mill than bell from Pittsburgh at the same price. Btw Desmond Jennings was taken in the 10 th round another example that Tampa finds players not only in the top five selections of the first round. Good teams find good players. The phils have the best team in baseball. I think some people just love to complain.
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Jon Mayo –MLB—lists top ten prospects from every org.—-total 300. Doesn’t mean top 300 prospects in minors, but top ten from each club. Of the 300—–76 are Latin signees.
Braves, Yanks, Red Sox, Rangers, Tigers, Mariners and Mets all have a min of 3, some have up to 5/6. Most of the rest of the fiscally sound clubs have one or two. Now tell me how fair is that when when a half-dozen clubs can outbid the remainging clubs for talent replenishment? You are looking at least 25% of the top prospects being Latin signees. IMO, it is an unfair system.
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Listing the top draftees from each system doesn’t mean anything. The Yankees UNDERSPEND in the draft. More of their prospects come from Latin America because they simply are not exploiting their economic advantage in the draft.
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Please—get real. Are you telling me that Jon Mayo doesn’t have the ability to evalaute talent when, as an employee of MLB, he has access to all the teams scouting personnel and GMs! Please keep it real. He just doesn’t list the ‘draftees’ of each team, he lists all of their prospects–draftees and inter. signees.His track record speaks for itself.
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I said nothing about Jonathan Mayo’s ability as an evaluator. That’s not the issue.
He listed the top ten Yankees. By definition, they MUST have ten prospects. If their top ten are Finnish amateurs, does that mean they have an unfair advantage in Finland? Just because their draftees are Latin does not mean they have a stranglehold on the market.
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The Yankees pick at the end of each round every year and sign a lot of FAs, so their draft spending would be even lower if they didn’t bust slot.
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Understand…..however my point in this is that the system is just not fair to teams, like the Phillies, who have sound fiscal policies and budgets when it comes to inter signees. Plus, the best talents are in Latin America, not to disparage Aussies , Asians or Europeans. And until there is a system in place to curb the spending the distribution of talent will continue to be with the big spenders. Maybe an inter draft is not feasible—but, then why not an annual $ cap on inter signees. Of course, teams like the Yankees, Rangers, Sox, et al who spend will be against that.
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The argument against it is that the amount spent on Latin America even by the top spenders is not abhorrent. The Orioles spent $8 million this year on Vladimir Guerrero, and that did no good. Baseball is better off if other teams spend as opposed to artificially limiting bonuses. It won’t really work and at worst it’ll hurt the talent coming in.
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Well I was sort of with you until you said it’s unfair for teams like the Phillies. The Phils can spend with anyone.
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An intl draft will never happen
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Agreed. MLB just doesn’t have the authority over all of these other countries. Why would the government of, say, Venezuela, give MLB the right to hold down the bonus payments given these kids by implementing a draft? This is just one of a bunch of problems with attempting to get something like this in place.
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It can be done…….could do a separate draft….however there are more obstacles to have to be overcome……because figuring out the logistics would be tougher than trying to hit Justin Verlander. MLB has made strides in verifying the identities and ages of Latin American players, but it’s still a laborious process. An international draft would force MLB to investigate numerous players in a shorter period of time. The commissioner’s office also would have to monitor teams conspiring to hide players or depress their stock, and it already has trouble preventing deals getting made before the current signing period officially starts on July 2 each year. Will 16-year-old Latin Americans remain eligible for pro ball, which eventually could lead to earlier entry for U.S. players, or will they have to wait until they’re high school seniors, which some scouts believe would harm their development? Will nondrafted Latin Americans become free agents after the draft like their U.S. counterparts, which could lead to all sorts of shenanigans? A draft reduces international bonuses dramatically, because players no longer would be able to negotiate with all 30 teams and sign with the highest bidder.
There are teams that have unlimited funds and would oppose such a system because it would further reduce stocking their talent pool
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A separate draft doesn’t solve the problem, just introduces new ones. For instance, you now have an entire second wave of first round draft picks. These kids and their agents are going to (rightfully) demand that they have the same bonuses as the first round draft picks in the “US” draft, which will more than likely actually drive prices of these players up. Don’t believe me? Take the top 30-50 draft bonuses from this year and the top 30-50 LA bonuses and tell me which is more. Admittedly, there are going to be 1-2 bonuses a year for LA players (such as Aroldis Chapman) that skew the numbers. That is why you need to take the top 50 or so. The system, as it is today, is likely the most cost-efficient option for MLB. But, status quo doesn’t make for fun posts on boards.
You don’t need to post another explanation of your point, it is just that your point is a rehash of popular opinion (if anything that Bud Selig suggests can be called popular) and not one that is based in fact or actual, you know, research.
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To a larger point however, we are well outside the realm of GCL prospects, so I am going to (attempt to) refrain from any further responses and apologize to PP at this time.
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Thanks you do take up some wind.
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They absolutely have the legal authority to do so. The league is here and the labor is therefore subject to our laws and not those of the supplier countries.
There are many problems in implementing the international draft, but imposing American labor laws over baseball players from other countries isn’t one of them.
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Well Rick, you’re right that “the labor is therefore subject to our laws and not those of the supplier countries,” but that ironically might make your conclusion wrong. The draft would be violative of U.S. anti-trust rules, except that it is agreed to through the collective bargaining process.
At a minimum, this would mean that the union would have to agree if there was to be a draft of foreign players. There may be other obstacles as well, I’m not a labor lawyer, but the fact that Union agreement would be needed is one barrier that certainly exists.
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The draft ALREADY IS A VIOLATION OF US ANTI-TRUST RULES. I’m not wrong as I wasn’t commenting on that, I was commenting on the fact that labor laws in countries such as Venezuela and the DR have no relationship with US Labor Laws and how they’re applied to employees from those countries as they work in the US.
I don’t think that MLB wants to chance being sued over the draft by implementing an International Draft because there’s no way they could win in court. The draft artificially keeps salaries low and there is no way around that fact in a court of law.
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Well Rick – and I mean this in the nicest way, I’m not trying to pick a fight – I think the post that I was responding to didn’t make your position very clear. 🙂
As to anti-trust law, I tend to think (from knowledge of the law, superior to non-lawyers, but I’m far from an expect) there is a good case to be made that the fact that the draft is agreed to in the collective bargaining process should not get around the anti-trust problem. But I don’t think that the case law supports that position, and I don’t see a court striking down the draft in any sport (as long as it is part of a collective bargaining agreement).
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I agree – that is as nice as you can possibly be.
I also think in our lifetimes you will see a sport have their draft eligibility challenged in federal court. Whether that’s MLB or not, hard to say. My knowledge of labor law is limited to the fact that I grew up with a labor lawyer. If I was Hillary Clinton, I’d use that to stump for Attorney General 🙂
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Baseball has an anti-trust exemption which helps it get around some of the issues. It’s also my understanding that the draft would be outside of the collective bargaining process IF the teams eliminated the compensation aspects currently in place. I believe eliminating the comp picks has been discussed as a way for baseball to impliment a hard-slotting system without needing Union approval.
I expect if they tried to follow that path the Union would certain file suit and since I’m not a labor laywer either, I have no idea what the outcome would be.
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Link to article on Baseball Anti-trust exemption:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=1290707&type=story
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One thing to consider on an international draft:
A big big part of why these kids choose baseball over other sports is BECAUSE of the huge bonus possibilities if they succeed. Puerto Rico used to be considered international for the draft…then in 1990 it was added and the level of baseball talent coming into the Majors dropped way off. Puerto Rico has been fighting to exclude itself from the draft as a result of that. If you impose a draft on Latin America (and the Carribbean), you likely push all those top athletes over to soccer as baseball is no longer a big $$ maker for them. Also, all those developmental leagues and complexes sponsored by MLB clubs would go away too. That would compound such a talent drain and lower the overall level of talent coming into the Majors.
So…do you really want an international draft?
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The commissioner,of almost twenty years and a successful businessperson in his own right, feels it is needed….and he gets no personal gain from it being established? He seems to think it will be a significant cost savings for many teams–I assume smaller market teams.
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Of which his Brewers are one.
Not to mention the fact that he wants to impose hard slotting on the draft, also as a benefit to smaller market clubs.
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It benefits the clubs, both large and small. It doesn’t benefit the players. And because it restricts good players, it doesn’t benefit the fans. If baseball could restrict salaries to the minimum, we could’ve seen great players like Tony Gwynn or Dave Winfield choose other sports. Is that good for baseball?
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It doesnt benefit the clubs because while they may theoretically “save” money, the overall quality of the talent they are bringing in goes down league wide.
That’s a bad thing all around.
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Just an unproven assumption….similar arguements made and said in 1964—year before the first Amateur Draft. And how did that turn out 45 plus years later?
Further, I assume we are all Phillies followers, correct…….well, it benefits teams like the Phillies since the team has a very thrifty monetary policy when it comes to draftees and internatioon signees—–is that correct or not?
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Wow the Yankees in think have 3 of the 20but they still suck
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Ethan Stewart I almost ranked #5 on the LHP prospect list but the 47th round draft stock scared me off. I should reinstate him there.
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The Yanks have spent internationally and in the draft. But frankly their drafts have been rather lackluster. This is the GCL too where the high price Latin talent congregates as opposed to the many of the Phillies draft prospects which appear in SS A and A-.
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Okay, so I don’t know where to put this..so please move the post if it’s in the wrong place. Today I went to the FIL,which is at the Carpenter Complex and what a treat. I’ll try to cover everything I saw(i’m not not a scout so keep that in mind), I took some notes so here we go:
First – If you are in the area I definetly would pop in. The atmosphere is very laid back and free to the public, you can actually go into the offices and pick up a schedule and roster for the FIL games. Games start next week and are Brighthouse field which is adjacent to the Complex.
Okay now to the good stuff – The Players – I saw all hitters and really spent a ton of time looking at the newbies (keep in mind this was bp)
Tyler Greene (was in group with Walding, Tocci, Martinez and Asche)- Greene is a Slender kid really, puts his bat on the ball, really thought he was the one guy trying to work different parts of the field and was peppering the ball all over. Didn’t hit any out but had a one hopper Or two and runs the base paths with ease. Walding – I see why they almost gave him a 1mil, this kid is big and he really swings the bat nice and he can run, he he hit everything and he had a one hopper.! Tocci – this kids looks every bit of 15, Tall and lanky, not much of a build to him at all, looked alot like a slap hitter but I’ll blame that on maturity, one thing he has now is speed. Martinez – Dissapointing, didn’t square ball up well and he runs like an elephant.
Roman Quinn (Jroll2) (was in a group with pointer, Altherr, Hudson)- Smallish Frame, noticeably smaller than anyone else on the field, didn’t swing well in the few times I’ve seen him…but man, can this kid Gallup. GAME CHANGING SPEED. Pointer – I’ve posted on him before, great build, quick power swing, tons of leverage on his swing and he sent a couple over the fence, was surprised how good he runs. Altherr – very tall seems to be filling out though, looked good in bp. Hudson – taller than I thought, he looks more like a basketball player or wide receiver, one of the most athletically gifted baseball players in our system.
LARRY GREENE – ((in group with Eldemire, collier, knight)
Wow wow wow for Larry Greene, everyone stops to
Watch this kid hit and for good reason; the ball jumps off his bat a long way, cleared the fence about 5’times that I caught and actually hit a
Building Sitting in the background quite a
Was behind right field, This kid is exciting to watch, after he hit the coaches would huddle together and marvel about his performance it was
Fun to see. Knight -couldnt catch up the heat the whole time He was sending the ball into right the whole time because he couldn’t catch up
To the ball, Eldemire was fun to see, he sent one over the fence very tall kid and can run!
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Great report. Always great to hear first hand stuff – even better that you got to see all of our top draft picks for the last couple of years. Makes you dream on next year already!
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Thanks for the report. Do you have the ability to scan the roster and then email it to me? If so, that would be fantastic.
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Larry Shenk’s blog had it a couple days ago, and it appears in the transactions section abov e on this site, and Shenk’s blog post is also reprinted in the Phillies MLB.com page in the minor league section there.
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Awesome work – thanks.
Any other thoughts/ impressions on Pointer??
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Good stuff. Thanks for posting.
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very hard to scout kids in such a situation. The GCL is basically a crash course of learning to be a professional.
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Agreed very hard to scout but fun to see, meant more to report what I saw. Can’t wait to see all in game situations next week!
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Pretty sure Bob was referring to the GCL reports, not yours. Thanks so much, it was a very informative report. Will you be able to do more in the future?
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Was wondering what the implications were in BA leaving Pointer off the list. Is this a result of us rating our “own guy” higher than a neutral observer or are we reading too much into its true value?
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I don’t think that we rate Pointer too high. He produced on the field and continues to show well in FIL. There are many other young players in the GCL. Probably other outfielders seemed better to BA. I think it is good that BA produces lists of players. I’ll take Pointer as a member of our top 30.
Besides, you don’t have to be on BA’s list to be an impactful player. Roman Quinn could be our next Bourne or Lonnie Smith.
Teach Quinn how to drag a bunt. He’ll bat .500. Once he is on base he’ll be on third base in position to score. Remember the fear Lonnie Smith put into the opposition? He was not an all star, but good enough to play on three different World Series teams.
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That’s what I thought. Was just wondering why he wasn’t included.
Lonnie Smith was a lot better than that, he has serious off-field issues that derailed his Phillies career. It was good to see him turn things around and get a 2nd opportunity with the Braves.
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Teaching Quinn to drag a bunt may be made more difficult by the fact he has mostly been a Right Handed Hitter, has only begun to experiment as a switch hitter and may not continue in that pursuit.
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Nice report. The Martinez you were referring to was that Harold? Everytime I read Pointer’s name its in a positive light. It sounds like this kid has all the tools to come out of no where and eventually become a top line prospect.
Keep them coming these are very interesting reports at this time of the year.
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PP -I should be able to scan it for you tonight, where do you want me to send it?
Rick – on Pointer (granted I’m not a Scout) but I did see him over the summer as well and for me he was one of the standouts, now I’m not ready to anoint him top 10 prospect status but definitely someone to keep an eye. He seems to do everything atleast average, from what I saw he runs well, he has quick twitch hands and he has some power in his bat. One of his problems i guess is there isn’t one thing that really stands out as an elite talent. But I liked what I saw yesterday and over the summer. When he gets a hold of one, it goes!
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Thanks for the response.
I’m looking forward to seeing him next year in Lakewood/ Williamsport.
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Ethan Stewart, REALLY. He must have had some nice stats in the GCL while he was there, related to not walkin’ folks to impress BA, because I seen him at State College and I would say he’s a longshot. Basically a “no-wind-up ” type, The LHP holds the ball in his glove in front of him like a serving tray with his lead right leg about a couple of feet ahead of the rubber and his left back foot a couple of inches behind the rubber. His windup is to bring the left hand to the glove over the head , shuffle the back foot up to the rubber and throw. From the stretch, the usual. Speed was typically 86. everything between 84 and 88. That’s all I seen. So, unless it was a bad day, if you’re looking for a LHP fireballer he may not be your guy. If MLB only brought 15 guys better than him to the GCL, must have been a slow year for newbies from Latin America, College guys not ready for Short Season, and inexperienced Cananians and other foreigners.
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Also saw Stewart was 84-88 mostly 85-86. Saw better pitchers then him on phillies. Oviedo was 88-93 wagner 88-92. Maybe they are projecting on young Canadian
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I admit I don’t know scouting as well as some of the others on this site, but logically, if his delivery is that screwed up, and he’s still managing 85/86, then perhaps with a more efficent delivery he can move up to 90+?
This is a question, not a statement, thoughts?
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Stewarts numbers are very good in the GCL and he constantly threw 88-92 with a excellent curve ball. Don’t uses first game in Williamsport ,as is small sample.
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Are you related to the youngster?
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Besides Pointer and Greene, is there anyone else from the GCL who deserves top 30 consideration?
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Though early judgments on draftees and other signings will take a while to firm up, it is my hope (dream) that the whole future infield is contained within the 2011 draft.
I see this infield:
!st base: L. Greene
2nd base:Walding (Unless Asche realizes his power hitting)
SS: Quinn
3rd base: T. Greene (Franco being his competitor)
I was disappointed in HMart’s hitting which he barely kept up at .250; for a college hitter chosen in the third round he looks like a college project. I had hoped that he would have taken charge of that position considering he signed early and played the whole season at Wlmsprt. For openers, T. Greene showed much better.
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Please..!
Tyler Greene is the SS of ther future and will be the best SS in this class. Quinn has no hands and will be in CF very shortly. Walding is the player we paid alot of money to that has no position.
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We are not getting an entire infield out of one draft class. That’s unheard of. I would be more than happy with one star and another regular major-league player from any given draft.
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I think the team sees Quinn more as a CF. We’ll see where he ends up next season.
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We need some talent. Our system is very light on prospects.
I know many of us like to make up lists of top ten or top thirty prospects, but realistically, if we leave out the players we drafted in 2011 (lets allow them to play a few games before we rate them) we don’t have 30 prospects right now. Maybe we have 5-6 but after that, we have a few suspects and then a bunch of players who have little hope of getting past AA ball.
So many draft picks from the past 2 years have fizzled right from the start. When a 21-22 year old college player struggles at a low minor league level, it is disappointing. When they are with us for two years and barely get into a game, that is even more disappointing. Perci Garner, 2 years and 8 games, Gauntlett Eldemire, two years and no games, Jake Smith, 2 years and 27 games, the whole Tyson Gillies fiasco – the list goes on and on. We can’t get players who can avoid injuries. Garner is 22 years old and hasn’t pitched above the NYP league. Players in this league should be 19-21 years old, not players 2 years out of college.
We need players who can get onto the field, stay healthy and start refining their skills. We have a significant number of young players whose names never show up in the box scores.
Players develop when they play, and too many of our minor league players do not play. Our disabled lists are filled with players whose development has stalled or never got underway.
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Agree….you are keeping it real for sure. Outside pos.players like Valle and Galvis, srt.pitchers–May, Biddle, Pettibone and JRod and relievers like Aumont and Defratus—the cupboard is bare with little excitement, except for this years draftees..
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I disagree a bit. I think the system has a lot of depth. Lots of intriguing names that I could go 50 deep and find interesting players to talk about. What is thin is players that would normally fill out a top ten. I have Galvis #3. I don’t think he’s a #3 prospect. But who gets ranked above him?
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1. May
2. Biddle
3. Valle
4. Franco
5. Pettibone
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May and Biddle are my #1-2. I feel that Galvis’s hitting performance in context was better than Valle’s, and we know that Galvis has the edge on defense. Franco maybe, I don’t know much about him yet though what I’ve heard is highly encouraging. I don’t want to get overexcited.
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No big argument with your reasoning. Gavis in the 3-7 range makes sense depending on what you value.
The guy who originally posted that the Phillies have 5-6 prospects, then some suspects is not far off. But I don’t think that puts the Phillies in any different position than most teams.
I do think the Phillies minor league depth is overstated here sometimes. Until this year I agreed, but I think they have finally emptied the cupboard of high potential players. I really only see a handful of high potential impact players outside of the 2011 players. May, Biddle, Franco and Aumont being those players.
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I see Altherr in that group. High risk, but his upside is as high as anyone in the organization. A 6’5″ speedster who can pop 400′ home runs.
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I still have colvin ahead of pettione. Its too soon to write him off after one bad year (look at may) and his stuff puts his upside way ahead of pettibone in my opinion.
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Interesting players do not always make MLB players. What ‘LA fan’ alludes to in one respect, is that too many prospects have had physical problems that have retarded their development…. and there is a hope, and maybe an assumption by some, that once healthy they will jump right up the prospect ladder. Thats what we all want, but is that a realistic expectation?
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I agree. We’re lacking in top 10 type talent, but I don’t think we’ve ever been as deep. I see us as 55 prospects deep. Granted, a lot of the prospects profile as relievers, 4-5th pitchers and utility men, but there are still some with high upside. Altherr, Colvin, Hudson, Franco, Jiwan James, and C. Hernandez, plus a few of the LA prospects, and a large handful of our 2011 draft class have pretty high ceilings. It will be really fun to follow these guys next year to see who breaks out and becomes a top 100 type prospect.
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Where did our best prospects go? Let’s see… Carrasco, Marson, Drabek, Singleton, Gose, Cosart, Knapp, Taylor, Santana and a few others are now on other teams. What do we have in their place? Halladay, Oswalt, Lee and Pence. I’m not sure there’s a Philliy fan, alive or dead, who wouldn’t take these guys.
When you lose these guys and your Major League team gets stronger, then your picking late in the 1st round, at the earliest. Plus we lose Werth to the Nats and we can’t get their #1 because it’s too high up in the draft. So your not getting a choice of guys who have the highest potential to make a top prospect list.
What’s left is taking high potential guy with solid committments to College. You have to pay an arm and a leg for the guy and what are his chances that he’ll be a starter or an all-star in 4 to 5 years? His chances aren’t very good. Also, should the Phils sign a bunch of these guys over a couple of drafts so that the law of averages gives you 2 or 3 good players? How about drafting 50 of these guys in 1 draft, signing 35 of them, spending a boat load of cash (say $30M) and having 10 or so make the big club in 4 – 6 years? Can you put them all on the 40 man roster when the time comes? Would you just trade them off for established ML talent?
Lastly, a Baseball team is a business. Costs do matter. Just as GE wants to make the best aircraft engine, it also wants and needs to make a profit off it. It could buy the best parts, the best engineers and put in every bell and whistle to make that engine fool-proof but they’d either not sell a single engine because the cost is too high, the cost of air travel would increase 5 or 10 times, or they’d sell every engine at a loss. Lose/LoseLose. You, as a frequent flyer, want that fool-proof engine but you have to understand the business side of it. I want the best players from top to bottom in the Phillies organization but as the Rolling Stones say, “You can’t always get what you want.”
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Don’t forget D’Arnaud, who after this season looks like he could be the best of the bunch.
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Here’s a realistic expectation. Every organization has injured players and lots of them. That’s why they draft 50+ players every season and sign , maybe, 30 of them and bring in numerous other players from various other sources. If you count up the players released for various performance related issues every season (many of whom were minor league veterans or UDFA brought in as replacements after the start of the season) it would be alot less than the players brought in. The players released would be alot less than those brought in, and many of the released would be “extra additions” rather than established minor leaguers at the start of the season. The rest of the guys they bring in would be accounted for by injured players.
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I’m surprised Pointer did not make the top 20. He finished 9th in OPS in the league, he’s only 19, apparently he’s got a bunch of tools…perhaps we should not be as high on him as his numbers would suggest?
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A lot of comments seem overly defensive, but don’t really rebut the assertion that the Phillies farm is fairly weak today. Yes, a lot of talent was traded for excellent established major leaguers. Yes, by and large, those were good trades that seriously helped the major league Phillies, but that is sort of beside the point of whether or not the farm is strong at present. Yes, we have had poor draft position as a penalty for our major league success and yes, we took it on the chin when a second division club chose to sign Werth. But none of this addresses the issue that the farm, as we view it today, is below average in strength.
Yes, we have a lot of interesting athletes in the system, but I think the fans of many teams, who follow their team’s minors, would tell you that they have a lot of interesting talent that could still break out next year. It is almost a given that someone will break out for us next season, as Ruiz did at Reading years back, but it is equally clear that at least one of those who performed well this year will regress next year due to injury or just not being able to handle stronger competition a level higher.
I think some posters are over estimating some of our minor leaguers. Collier is a great athlete and defender, but in his fourth year since being drafted, one season being lost to injury, his OPS was only .677 at Lakewood. He hasn’t moved up the organization quickly and a .677 OPS doesn’t scream future major leaguer. He could well break out next season, but the rosy glasses are needed to rate him as a serious prospect today. This is true of a lot of our young OF, who as a group disappointed this year. Gillies didn’t play — a world of talent, but will he ever stay healthy and has he lost too much time already? Altherr is also a great athlete and defender, but in his 3rd season couldn’t handle Lakewood and regressed from his 2010 performance at Williamsport, posting less than a .700 OPS. James did lose two years to injury while he was a pitcher, but this was his 5th season and he put up a .690 OPS at CLW. There are those who argue that this isn’t bad compared to the league average OPS, but then most guys in the FSL will never sniff the majors. All of the OFs I’ve mentioned have undeniable talent, but at this point they are iffy prospects, who need a breakout year. Most of us had Singleton and Santana in our top 10 going into this season, and their numbers this year and age/level are more what would expect from a serious prospect. None of our remaining minor league OF has risen to this serious prospect status as of today.
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I think it’d be interesting to see how our system would look with some of the graduated players. Our #1, 11 and 12 players graduated (going by B.A.) as well as Michael Stutes.
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Actually, I think the posters overestimate our minor league outfield talent but significantly underestimate our minor league pitching talent. It is, far and away, the most talented group of pitchers that the team has produced in the twenty or so years I’ve been following them. It’s not even close.
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So very true. And that’s even with the loss of Cosart, Drabek, Knapp and Carrasco.
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I disagree with your assesment of the pitching. The Phillies have 3 maybe 4 above average talents pitching in the minors right now. May, Biddle, Aumont. They don’t have anybody that people are talking about as can’t miss. Nobody else in the system is any different talent wise than everybody else’s pitchers. These DeFratus, Schwimers, and Buchanan’s aren’t thought of as anything special.
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Percival Garner is a can’t miss.
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No, he’s not, given how few IP he’s managed in two years. I think Colvin is a stronger prospect and Rodriguez about equivalent. I think DeFratus may well be something special.
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Let me ask why would anyone worry about the state of the system at this point. We’ll have the resources to keep Pence around for quite a while. Mayberry is making a strong case to hold down LF for the next few years. I don’t see Vic going any where near term and as it stands the pitching we have will keep us in the playoffs for quite a while.
Point being even tho you can’t put your finger on any one position player today and say this guy is the future you can safely say someone out of the bunch will emerge. Just because BA doesn’t list a guy doesn’t mean we don’t have a few future big leaguers.
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Isn’t that the entire point of this website??
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To worry or be negative about what we have/don’t have? I guess that’s up to the individual. I love the site because it educates me. It makes me a little more knowledgeable than the average Phillies fan.
I don’t lose sight of the fact that it is all about how the big club is doing and depending on how far you go back you don’t want to re-live the dreck we saw post 1983 and 1993. I guess I could understand complaining about the system if we were the Mets or Astros right now but we’re about to go to our 3rd WS in 4 Years.
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But at the same time, you know that strength in the farm system is primarily why the big league team is in the position it’s in. So the current and future health of the minor league teams is always important. Even the stars we acquired that came up with other teams are here because the Phillies developed good prospects.
I don’t think the state of the farm system is something to be concerned with right now, but that’s because there are still good players in it, not because it doesn’t matter.
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No, sorry maybe I wasn’t clear with my response. I meant isn’t the point of this site to discuss prospects/ players in the minor league system?? If someone’s point of view is that the system is currently bare or thin, then that’s just one side of the coin.
I totally agree with you.
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Hmm, IMO somewhat rose colored glasses. While the high revenue/payroll mitigates the following to a very significant extent:
(1) There are some immemdiate (2011) holes, certain in some cases, potential in others – 5th starter (unless they can resign Oswalt for much less than his option price, or if Blanton comes back), SS and closer depending upon the obvious, third base looking a little shakey. Some uncertainty in LF, though I think Brown will be the answer.
(2) 2013, third base needs to be filled, CF maybe depending, Hamels could be a FA.
(3) 2014 – 2B, RF, C, SP. Again, the players could be resigned (or in one case an option exercised). As with some of the guys from earlier years. But that brings us to:
(4) The team is aging – if we DON’T get some new blood, by 2013, 2014 at the latest, we’re going to be looking a .500 ball club – even if they re-sign everybody. Of course that’s with a normal again curve; as players get older, though, the risk of a precipitous decline or serious injury increases.
Currently, for 2014 only 2 players are signed, with an option on a third. What’s lacking are young, cost controlled players.
IMO “at this point” the issue is MORE salient than it would have been (say) 2 years ago. The team is absolutely in a position now that they are going to be dependant upon some smart FA signings over the next couple of years. Or trades, but with a barren system that’s going to be tough.
Mind you, I think the trade offs have been worth it – except for (ahem) the Pence trade, and even that certainly could work out. But pretending that it isn’t a concern is myopic.
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Have to assume FO is fully aware of the pending cycle of baseball devastation approaching for the club and this aging core….and have a stategic plan in place on how to lessen the damage. The farm system has the projected pitching arms to offer hope. This years draft may prove fruitful in the positional areas in 2014/15.
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You’ve got to be kidding meit’s so tarsnpraenlty clear now!
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Larry, a few questions per your posting:
1) Is there any way Blanton isn’t back next year? How do you get rid of a $9 million/ year pitcher coming off a year where he pitched 20 innings? Your faith in Brown’s potential is admirable and honestly makes me feel better about his 2011 season.
2) Wouldn’t Hamels need to be non tendered to be aa FA? Don’t you think that’s there #1 priority, getting him locked up?
3) Is the Pence deal worth it in your opinion if they win the WS?
4) If Brown turns out to be half the player many think he can be, the .500 ball club doom and gloom shouldn’t be realized, correct?
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(1) As I understand it, the injury may preclude a starting pitcher role next year.
(2) Let’s assume they can’t agree on a long term contract with Hamels. He goes to arbitration this year, is offered arb next year, turns it down, becomes a FA.
(3) It depends. If they win the WS in a way where it can reasonably be argued that Pence made the difference, then yes. Though even there, they could be paying a big price down the road. I like Singleton a LOT, and Cosart and Santana, while risky, both have very high upsides.
(4) Brown’s one guy. It would depend upon what else happens with the club. The .500 comment assumed that they otherwise just re-signed their aging core. A nice FA signing or two could help a lot.
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Wow, I didn’t hear that. Ok.
I think the safer assumption is that they can/ will agree on a long term deal with Hamels.
I also like Singleton. Had him #1 after he tore up the SAL league last season and I saw him smoke a few balls the day I went down there. But a WS title is worth the trade off IMO.
Has RAJ given any indication that his only moves would be to sign all of his aging players to future deals and go down with that ship? Didn’t he let Werth walk, collect his Supplemental picks and move on? I think that’s a tough assumption to make.
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I’m not assuming that, I’m just making the point that they are going to need to make some big changes in the roster over the next 3 years, more so than normal – they have been riding the current core (of position players) for quite a while – and that’s not a good time for the prospect pipeline to dry up, even if it is only temporary.
But I’ll end with that; this has gone way off topic.
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Ron, I didn’t state this as a criticism of the front office – I’m sure they have a plan, every team does. Sometimes plans fail. The Phillies, because of their revenue stream, have a built in advantage, and, despite my criticisms of Amaro, they have good development people/scouting. But I think it’s absurd to pretend that the combination of an aging core, few controlled players with star potential, and a farm system that even the optimists are conceding is a little thin at the moment, is cause for some concern.
I also think that part of the “plan” for the past few years has been to win now, and let the future take care of itself. I’ve been mostly on board with that plan, and it has borne fruit, but pretending that such a strategy doesn’t incur costs is unrealistic.
More particularly, the starting pitching may sort itself out, though I am closer to VOR’s opinion on our minor league pitching (at this point, only 2 real prospects for front of the rotation starters, and even there the failure rate on pitching prospects is high, with maybe 3 others who could reach that level if everything breaks right for them, but are more likely to be back of the rotation starters at best). But in 2014 we could still have Halliday, Lee, Hamels, Worley, and maybe May, so we could easily be fine there.
But position players … no, I don’t see any of this year’s draftees being ready by 2014. This is straying off topic, so I won’t go much further, but the only minor leaguers I see stepping into regular roles by then – maybe – are Valle and Galvis. And while I like both players, neither at this point projects to be more than a solid regular. IMO they are going to need a couple of spectacular FA signings to remain contenders.
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I’ll say one thing – despite my criticism of Amaro, I have been generally supportive of the organization over the past few years. If they can meet the upcoming challenges of the next 3 years without suffering a down year or two – and it’s certainly possible, I’m not saying the team is doomed or anything – then we can truly anoint the Phillies one of the very best organizations in baseball. if not the best.
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My bet is that Quinn will be tested/coached for shortstop. If that doesn’t work out, he then could be moved to CF. A J-Roll in quick good fielding with a strong arm at SS; his glove is not any problem that can’t be cured. Same as to Walding’s hitch in throwing. That is what the minor lg coaching and training is for. Center field seems a much less in need than SS in the system. Several CFers have the potential to step up in the next season plat CF as real prospects. It is worthwhile to prepare Quinn to be the future SS…post Galvis.
The big club surely is aging; that’s why I want Galvis to replace J-Roll…instead of signing a physically limited player for multi years which would be: Bad management of assets and finances.
Delaying the quest for younger ML players for another several years makes no sense to me.
Finally, for those who lament the loss of the better prospects traded: are you dissatisfied with the big club’s current success? Would you rather have had the team end up falling short of the playoffs this season in order to retain those prospects for some future day?–maybe 2-3 years away?
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I suspect that they will move him to 2B before they move him to CF. But for the most part I think they will keep them all at SS (and Larry Greene in RF/LF) until they prove that they can’t play the position. Let them worry about hitting and not about learning a new position.
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I have no argument about the Lee and Halladay trades. Those guys are very special players and we got them relatively cheaply. I would not have traded, at least at the cost we paid. I expect the loss of Singleton and Santana to really bite down the road and if Cosart can be healthy going forward (a big if, I know), then he can be a #2/3 starter for a good team. Above and beyond what we traded for Pence, I don’t think the deal was necessary. Mayberry was hitting great at the time and he has lost AB since Pence was acquired, with Ibanez doing very little sitting. We were in first place at the time, with the best record in baseball, so there was no pressing need for the trade. The RH bat we needed was Mayberry. I also think the trade has hurt Brown’s confidence and development. This is not necessarily on Amaro. Cholly should have made Ibanez an infrequent starter and LH bat off the bench and DHed Gload.
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The Hunter Pence trade is really a three year trade, not just this season. Mayberry’s doing great but I suspect he’d be exposed full time. This allows the Phillies to replace Ibanez next season without laying out a ton of money for a free agent. It certainly won’t sting as much as the Beltran/Wheeler trade may for the Giants, or the Jimenez to Cleveland deal for that matter.
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Why do we always suspect that our minor league guys who are performing well in the majors are unreliable and about to be exposed? If a minor leaguer is playing great, shouldn’t we keep riding that horse until he is exposed, rather than being so afraid of a fall off in his performance. Worley was sat earlier in season and the regular vets weren’t as good as he was. Ibanez has had a bad, bad year. Adding Pence would have almost made sense, had he replaced Ibanez. Even with Pence and Howard hurting and the joke of a lineup that Cholly fielded tonight, in getting swept by the Nats, he leaves Mayberry on the pine the night after he hits another 2-run home run. This really makes no sense at all. All the stats show the Phillies did as well pre-Pence as post-Pence. Why was the team with the best record in baseball not good enough?
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We have the next Tulo with Greene. Get off the J-Roll future wish list and see the Real future of a Middle of the order hitter at SS. Walding will catch or play 3rd.. You heard it here first!
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I expect Walding to become a 3B.
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Hoping its Tulo and not Rela.
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Somebody tell Tyler Greene’s mom that she is annoying.
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The more and more I listen to Chris Coste, the more I realize how exceptionally intelligent he is when it comes to all facets of baseball. If I were Ruben I would find some managerial/management position in the system for him. Of course he may be making more $$$ doing the TV gigs and hesitate changing over.
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Well, as much as I hate to say this, the big $$$ the Yankees shell out for Latin free agent kids is starting to pan out all over again. Montero’s $1.6M bonus signing a few years ago seems to be worth it. Next year will probably be Banuelos ($250K), then in 2013 Gary Sanchez @ $2.5M……yeah there is no need for a draft!
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The NY-Penn League Top 20 drops tomorrow. That list will be interesting. Phillies have Maikel Franco, Aaron Altherr, Kelly Dugan, Kyrell Hudson, Harold Martinez, Perci Garner, Austin Wright, Adam Morgan, Bryan Morgado as viable prospects. I think Franco and Altherr will make the list, MAYBE Hudson and Garner as well.
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I hate to see a very intelligent poster lapsing into homerism. We don’t have 9 viable candidates for the top 20 in NYP. I think that on all counts Franco deserves a spot. I don’t think Altherr had a good enough season, dtto the other position players. THe pitchers are a lot more interesting, although they could be hurt by lack of innings. Wright, Morgado, Garner all seem legit. Morgan with not as good stats, but quite a few more IP, so I guess he is an outside chance.
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ditto that allentown.
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My meaning wasn’t clear. I meant viable within the context of the Phillies organization. Not on a league top 20 list.
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