Discussion: Biggest leap forward/biggest step back in 2011

Daily Discussion

I wanted to throw this discussion question out there to the masses.

I also want to extend a HUGE thank you to Gregg for his coverage of the playoffs, and really for all the work he’s done this year and since he started helping out here. Please join me in thanking him as you give your pick for biggest leap forward/biggest step back in 2011. I’ll withhold my votes for now as to not taint the discussion, and I plan on writing up a piece for both categories in the next few weeks.

170 thoughts on “Discussion: Biggest leap forward/biggest step back in 2011”

  1. If we are only picking two the obvious choices would be … biggest step forward — Galvis, biggest step backward — Colvin. No?

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  2. Will speak for LV only
    Brown has taken a huge step back, seems to be pouting, all the talent but was rushed or mismanaged. Needs one full year of success, not to mention someone hitting him a thousand pop flys in practice.
    Defratus big step forward. have not seen the velocity people talk about in the 10 or so times I have seen him but he gets outs and has good mound presence with three pitches.
    Amount has made a hude stride. Looked like a lost puppy last year, looks like Nolan Ryan this year.
    This guy has a chance to be special. Not a closer but a great 7th or 8th inning guy.
    Matheson has made big step back into the starter role and has dominated. Posters seem to bash him but they havent seen him pitch. Big guy with a crackling high 90s fastball. Splitter and slider can be really good and avg. He really never gets a fair chance up top. Seemes a little tired lately but that may be due to starting half way thru the season
    Thompson Stays even and plays hard every night . Have to think he could be a regular with 10 clubs in the bigs

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    1. A former high first round pick who “looks like Nolan Ryan” and “has a chance to be special” ought to have more upside than “7th or 8th inning guy, ” no?

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    2. Yeah not a lot of “special” 7th or 8th inning guys. Why not a closer? Sure he’s no ‘sure thing’ but if his stuff is as good as everyone has been saying then he absolutely has that potential.

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    3. Not sure how a 37/55 bb/k ratio is dominating but to each his own.

      The arm is there, the talent? Who knows at this point.

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    4. You think Rich Thompson could be a regular for 10 teams in the majors? Really? Then why isnt he a regular on a team in the majors? What is holding him back? He has been in baseball for 11 years. Have to imagine he was a minor league free agent a few times. If he was good enough, he would be a regular my friend, or even a bench player. But he’s not (good enough) and he’s not (on a major league roster).

      Scott Mathieson, is also not a major league pitcher. How do I know? Because he has never had success in the majors. He is 27 and does not have a future with the Phillies. He’s been in pro ball for 9 years now and cant crack a major league roster. other teams arent beating down the door for him.

      I think you are a little too high on your favorite Iron Pigs…there’s a reason they are 27 and 32 and not major leaguers. Its not a conspiracy. Its not because teams dont give them a shot. Not because they dont get a fair chance. Its not Little League, you dont get an award for trying or for being a good guy. If you can help the big team win games then you will be on the big team…

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      1. Re: Mathieson

        Exactly how do you judge success? Are you judging him by how he came up as a starter 5 years ago before blowing out his elbow (again). Sure he struggled as a 22 year old in 37 IP.

        Are you judging him off last season when he pitched all of 1.2 innings in the big leagues and gave up 2 runs. Sure he struggled there too I guess but its such a small sample who can really tell for sure.

        Or are you judging him off this year when he pitched 5 innings and didn’t give up any runs and struck out 5. If you are going to base the small samples before as evidence of not succeeding then you really need to be fair and use this as evidence that he can succeed.

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    5. “Brown has taken a huge step back, seems to be pouting”

      A blunt ‘no’ on both fronts. Just because he didn’t mash it in the majors doesn’t mean he “took a step back” or even had a bad year. Not too many guys kill it their first year. And, yeah, he dropped a couple balls in the OF… that ONE time. Big deal.

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  3. Would have to go with Galvis as most improved, runnerups to Cloyd and Aumont. Colvin, JCRam were disappointing

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  4. Galvis forward; Collier playing himself into a suspension or Gillies would be my biggest disappointments

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  5. Just to be different, I will select Biddle as the player who room the biggest step forward. I think the possible ceiling of a lefty power pitcher is such that he gets the nod.

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    2. I think next year is going to be a breakout year for Biddle, if this year wasn’t already. I see him expanding on the excellent numbers he put up after his early struggles.

      I think he’ll cement himself as the #1 prospect in the system and will be among the best pitching prospects in baseball.

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    1. Kyrell Hudson is a very good choice as a ‘step forward’ candidate. I don’t, however, agree with the sentiment that JC Ramirez was one of the biggest ‘step backward’ players. He was a late teens pick on the prospect list and I don’t think he has moved backward. Nobody had big expectations of him in the Pre-season. The expectations didn’t come until after the 1st month. I thought he would step forward this year, so I am disappointed, but I still have him ranked in my top 20.

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  7. Stepping away from Galvis and Colvin and the other obvious:

    Up:Biddle (he seems to be lost in the shuffle), May, Pettibone, JRod, Valle, Schwimmer, Savery

    Back: 2010 HS Draftees (except biddle)

    The problem wasn’t there was a lot of back but not a lot of high upside up, most of the up was from bad to interesting

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    1. Savery’s an interesting call. Went from a bust as a Pitcher to a potential AAAA DH/1B, back to a potential Pitching Prospect. All in 12 months.

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  8. Galvis is the most improved. His progress is incredible. He has done the natural way with hard work what some others did artificially. He is much stronger with the added benefit of bat speed and pitch recognition. He is for real.
    Colvin has taken the biggest dip. I believe he will be better next year when he will have no nagging injury problem. I don’t include Ramirez because of his beginning and end.
    I want also to say something about the awesome array of starting pitching that the Phillies’ system is developing. Hyatt, Cloyd, May, Rodriguez, Pettibone, Biddle, Buchanan, Bonilla (side B for the Class A contingent). They are the steady strength of the system

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    1. And you have to think with that list of starters the big club is set for 5th-7th starters for the next 5-6 years, and if Biddle comes up and becomes a 3 or a 4 and May comes up and becomes a 2 or a 3, then all that’s left is an ace and Vance Worley and they should be set into the mid/late 20teens with the payroll they can put forward.

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  9. In my opinion Jermaine Mayberry, Jr. took the biggest leap forward. At the start of the season JMJ was a fringe 4th outfielder who seemed incapable of laying off breaking stuff away. He struggled, got sent down, and seemed to be ready to wear the dreaded, permanent AAAA label.

    But then Mayberry flipped the script and wrote an entirely different story. He re-made his stance and shortened his swing. He turned his eyes towards the pitcher by opening up and crouched a bit to make a smaller zone and get himself loaded up on the balls of his feet. The results were fantastic: he recognizes pitches sooner, lays off most of the junk away, and can still attack a hanging curve while looking fastball.

    What he did in a such a short amount of time is truly amazing. If this keeps up, he’ll win the hearts of all the mermaids in the sea. You’ll soon see him step up to the plate with a trident, like Poseidon himself.

    Others worth mentioning: Galvis, of course. Worley and Stutes for sure. Aumont, Savery, and to a lesser extent, Pettibone.

    Steps back? Brown. Colvin.

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    3. Good call — hard to argue with the jump from aging AAAA type to solid major leaguer.

      I’ve been waiting anxiously, like everyone else, for the day Dom Brown is ready to take over in right (now left) field, but Mayberry has really earned a chance to pick up significant playing time next season and I’m excited to watch him develop.

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  10. Up-Has to be Galvis or Biddle. The two of them are on a completely different level from last year, where guys like Pettibone and JRod made strides but didn’t exceed expectations.

    Down-Cesar and Colvin. Colvin could still make a push next year and put it all together. IMO, Cesar has put it all together and it’s just not that impressive. Time may tell a different tale on him as well.

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  11. Biggest step forward:
    Maikel Franco, going from outside the top 30 to inside top 10
    Biggest step backward:
    Scott Mathieson, going from BA Top 15, (just behind Bastardo I belive) to being an after thought.

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  12. Mine would be Savery for biggest step up
    And for step down would be JC Ramirez

    Savery is an amazing story of changing his game from starter to DH/1B to Middle Reliever to LOOGY to now a back-end bullpen weapon.

    JC is disappointing just look at his stats I dont feel like going deeply into them. I think he has potential maybe a move to the bullpen will help him like it did Savery. Next I hope to be talking about him being a step-up guy.

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    1. WHY IS BROWN DOWN?!?!?!?

      Lets be realistic, he was decent in his time in the majors and then had that ONE game. That’s not nearly as bad as the year JC Ramirez or Brody Colvin had.

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  14. up–Galvis—Can I say I told you so since I had him 4th on my list of propects last year and was abused by everyone?

    down–Myers, Hewitt and James

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    1. I’m pretty sure Hewitt had his best pro season ever. It still wasn’t all that impressive but if anything it has to be a small step up. James finished poorly but up until the Singleton trade he was having a very nice year. I still have him around the top 10.

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    2. Myers didn’t have the same playing time and the playing time he had was not consistence. Myers is only 22 so he is still young all he needs is consistent playing time.

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  15. Galvis is the best choice for most improved as he’s made himself into a hitter to go with his already elite defense. Showed some nice baserunning skills (20+ SB) too despite not having elite speed. The offseason contract negotiations with J-Roll should be interesting with this guy waiting in the wings.
    Tyson Gillies has got to impress in the AFL and Brown has to rediscover his mojo.

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    1. I assume once Brown heals his wrist over the winter, he’ll be fine. His numbers weren’t that bad this year, all things considered.

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      1. I’m with you on Brown, and am continually frustrated at the ignorance around here regarding him.

        What now concerns me just a little is that the defense issue – the one real problem this year, if exaggerated in some people’s minds – seems maybe to have gotten into his head. There’s nothing about his performance this year that sends up real red flags, and for most of the season I was actually impressed that he didn’t let perceived struggles (e.g., BABIP related batting average slumps) affect his approach. Even when he wasn’t contributing otherwise, he still got some BB and SB.

        But if the defensive problems end up messing with his head and affecting his hitting, which from reports seems maybe to be the case, that could be a concern.

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        1. Thank you. I agree 100% with everything you said.

          Brown is only 23, however, and has a lot of maturing to do before his baseball career is over. Remember what you were doing at 23? Imagine now that everyone in the Philadelphia area were able to mock and condescend to your mistakes, and imagine how you’d take it. Brown isn’t some seasoned veteran who’s used to the slings and arrows of idiot Phillies fans. He will be fine in the future.

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        2. I agree with you that his hitting was fine, but I don’t know that his defensive problems were exaggerated in most people’s minds…he was pretty awful out there.

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          1. I agree with both your points.

            His hitting should not be a problem, and he looks like a fine athlete.

            I am astonished at the poor defensive play he exhibited this season. He was not just Raul-Ibanez or Pat-Burrell bad. He was I-never-played-baseball-before bad. And that after well over 400 games as an OF in the minors. What was we learning all these years?

            I assume that an athlete as good as Brown will improve enough defensively to earn a LF starting job eventually, but I wonder how long it will take.

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            1. I wonder how much of his defensive problems came from not being out there every night getting reps when he made it up to the majors (not meant as an excuse, more of a reason). I thought that Brown’s 34/25 K/BB ratio in the bigs was fantastic, especially for a 23 year old. On a team like the Phillies its hard for young guys to get consistent time if they don’t immediately succeed, but with those numbers one would have to think that he would have put together a pretty successful season if he was given a full time job.

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            2. My expectations for Brown were and are very high—-initially I was comparing him to the Braves’ Heyward and the Marlins’ Stanton–and envisioning the same results. That was totally unfair and unrealistic on my part. He needs to regain his confidence or what they say today ‘swagger’ and go from there and hope he comes around.

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            3. Well Ron, if it makes you feel any better, Brown had an identical .6 offensive WAR as Heyward this year, even though he had about half of the plate appearances. Granted, he needs to work on his defense, but he is extremely comparable to Heyward.

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            4. “He was not just Raul-Ibanez or Pat-Burrell bad. He was I-never-played-baseball-before bad.”

              What game were you watching? Come on, he wasn’t great, but he sure as hell was Raul bad. Raul was literally the second worst fielder in the majors last year. I don’t think that ONE game in Lehigh should be enough to discredit him completely.

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        3. Well I hope you are correct in your summation, because after approx 475 minor leagues games, over 2000PAs and six seasons down on the farm, I am ready for him to make an impact next year on the big club.

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          1. Why should Brown be given that chance before he earns it. He is not a good player, have you looked at his stats lately in AAA 067 and he’s DH so all he has to do is hit? Every time he plays bad, he has an excuse from AAA to the majors, he’s hurt, he’s tired, he’s not given enough playing time, whatever the reason there is always an excuse. The real reason is he was rushed and he needs to play in minor league.

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  16. Biggest Step Up?
    Gotta be Vance Worley…..
    15 innings in the bigs coming in and a longshot to make the team.

    Now a ROY candidate

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    1. Good point. We forget about Worley because he’s no longer a prospect but he started the year as one. Good arguments can be made for him, Galvis and Savery.

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    1. fyi – posted elsewhere

      September call-ups. Guys I’d like to see (in the order of priority):

      1. DeFratus
      2. Galvis
      3. Aumont
      4. Moss
      5. Hyatt (very unlikely)
      6. Savery
      7. Cloyd (won’t happen)
      8. Mitchell (won’t happen)

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        1. I can’t remember them doing that. The Phillies are noted for not rushing their prospects. I think the last time a prospect got promoted from Reading was Kyle Kendrick, and he only got the nod because nobody in AAA deserved it.

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          1. I thought the Phillies might promote a player from Lehigh Valley and then promote a player from Reading to the ‘Pigs. But the Phils seem to want to let the Ironpigs have their playoff shot.

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          2. Actually, I should have known about Kendrick—I saw him pitch his 2nd or 3rd game, which was at the ‘Bank’ back in 2007. They called him up before September that year.

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      1. Think about it please. If they start who relieves them. The workload on the playoff player needs to be managed. Or do you think the new in shape Joe can pitch a complete game.
        Joe said he got in shape because there was nothing else to do.WHATEVER IT TAKES

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  19. For me:

    Biggest Step Forward/Backward Pitchers:

    Forward: Trevor May, established himself as the best pitching prospect in the system.

    Backward: Colvin. Came into camp out of shape and had a terrible year.

    Biggest Step Forward/Backward Players:

    Forward: I consider this a tie between Galvis and Valle. Valle had a great offensive season and can only go up from here. I’d like to see the OBP come up a bit and when that does I think he’ll be an elite catching prospect in baseball. Galvis, I don’t think there’s anything I can say that people here haven’t already. He improved every aspect of his game besides his defense, and that’s only because his defense has always been outstanding. I think he’s 2-3 years away from becoming an Elvis Andrus type player with better defense.

    Backward: No question it’s Domonic Brown. He has all the talent in the world but it seems like he cannot put it together mentally. I still have faith in this kid that he’s going to develop into a star, but this was a terrible year, no way around it.

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    1. Honorable mentions (moving forward):
      Jesse Biddle, Jonathan Pettibone, Phillipe Aumont, Carlos Rivero, and John Mayberry.

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      1. I agree with all except Pettibone. I think he was as good in second half of 2010. He just continued what he’d been doing.

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          1. I was a skeptic and he shut me up. His K rate still doesn’t inspire me, but he is very young, he doesn’t walk anybody and he doesn’t give up any runs.

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    2. “but it seems like he cannot put it together mentally”

      Way do you say that? He was actually having a pretty decent rookie year. Like I keep saying, don’t judge him off that one game, its just not right.

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  20. Guys that are still prospects:

    Up, Galvis, not even in my top 30, now top 5.

    Down, toss up, Colvin or Ramirez.

    Really interesting to see how many guys that started the year as prospects who took it to a whole different level when reaching the bigs, Mayberry, Worley, Stutes, Bastardo. Phillies coaching really that good? I’m starting to think so, I’ll direct you to exhibit A. J. Werth B. Shane Victorino, others…???

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    1. I like Galvis a lot, but I think there has been an over-reaction to his play this season.

      Galvis has always been a great glove. At the start of the season, though, his bat seemed so weak that he was barely a major-league prospect.

      With his performance this season, Galvis now qualifies as a legitimate utility IF. I do not consider a future utility IF to be a top prospect.

      If Galvis repeats his 2011 performance next season in AAA, he may start to look like a future regular SS and become a top prospect.

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      1. I agree with you. Galvis had a solid year….but he needs to repeat some of the same strengthening skills that made this year noteworthy. He will still remain a good field / no hit player unless he can confirm those hitting skills again.

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      2. I think you overestimate the bat needed for utility infielders. Look at Valdez’s minor league statistics and his age at each level. I think it’s safe to say that utility IF is now closer to Galvis’s floor and he does have a shot to be a starting IF. He does have to keep it up and improve as he ages, but this year shows he has a chance to be a starter.

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  21. Steped up Franco, Bonilla, Galvez, Claypool,Lino Martinez Not recognized as prospects and are now posible top 20 prospects

    Steped back Collier, Colvin, Hewitt, @ one time or another top prospects and did not play to expectations

    Stood still- Alther, Alvarez,Dugan( did nothing to hurt or improve prospect status

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    1. What was Hewitt taking a step back from exactly? He was awful this year – kinda like he was last year. And in 2009. And….

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  23. Up – Galvis, Aumont, Cloyd
    Down – Colvin, Gillies
    Yo-Yo award JC Ramirez – was up in April down for next 17 starts and then up for last 4 starts

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  24. An interesting angle on this thread might be second half vs. first half e.g. Cloyd
    3.48 pre 2.30 post. The stats seem to indicate he needs only to improve his work from the stretch to be a top prospect. ,090 with bases empty if very impressive.
    Biddle is another.
    Who gets called up today? Cloyd should be one if he has to be protected.

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  25. Not being a scout,seems strange to me that a kid like Galvis who improves his bat with a already great glove, and at 21 is at triple a and hitting is still consider by some a ulitily player??

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      1. I don’t really see a division on Galvis between “metrics” and non metrics people. No sensible person (metrics or not) thinks he is ready now; most people (metrics or not) think he has the potential be a regular down the road.

        BB rate enters into it to some extent, but you don’t need to be a “metrics” guy to understand that a player who hits a fairly empty .250 (which is likely what Galvis would hit as a regular if he was prematurely thrust into a major league role in 2012) isn’t going to cut it as a regular, even as a shortstop with good defense & given current levels of scoring.

        But I think the “metrics” guys understand better than some people that Galvis could be a regular on a contender with some more development time (and hopefully more across the board improvement in his hitting) even if he never hits as many as 10 HR in a season. “He needs to hit 15 HR” is as big an error as “it doesn’t matter what he hits.” And neither error is likely to be made by the “metrics guys.”

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        1. As far as HRs lets have a bit of a reality check in general. There are only 11 shortstops in the majors right now who have hit double digits in home runs. If a player can hit in the order of 260/330/380 while playing great defense at short, he’s valuable.

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          1. ……..I don’t know…..according to LarryM the Cable-metric Guy….unless he improves his BB% or a worthwhile BABIP, that is a pretty darn ’empty’ 260/330/380 slask line!

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            1. If Galvis were in the major leagues next year he would not hit that well. He would hit somewhere on the level of 240/280/300. Which is not what you want from a big league player. Which is what LarryM is saying.

              And considering the only “metrics” in larry’s post were batting average and home runs, I wouldn’t recommend trying to calculate your own slask lines anytime soon.

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            2. You’re an idiot, and obviously have the reading comprehension of a one year old. If Galvis could really do that, it would be far from empty & more than acceptable. And one day he may well do it. But next year he would be more likely to hit around .250/.300/.320 AT BEST. And, contrary to the opinion of morons like yourself, there is a WORLD of difference between a shortstop who hits .250/.300/.320 and one who hits .260/.330/..380. The former is not adequate performance for a contending major league team, the latter is just fine.

              And what the heck does BABIP enter into it? How is it relevant to Galvis? I certainly didn’t raise it. I would note, though, that EVERY TIME I have referenced BABIP, my analysis has been proven correct by subsequent events.

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            3. And the if you think that was harsh, let me be clear that I held back on what I REALLY thought in respect for PP’s call for civility.

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            4. LarryM says:
              June 22, 2011 at 4:10 PM
              A point regarding sample size and Galvis (can’t find the original thread where it really belongs). HR totals stabilize relatively quickly, much much more so than BABIP. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=14215 So the “sample size” argument has less weight for HR (and Ks and BBs). That’s a large part of the reason why some of us yawn when a prospect has a BABIP fueled BA surge but get excited by a significant increase in power (or improvements in Ks or BBs). LD% also takes much much longer to stabilize, another reason why Brown should be just fine.

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            5. Wow, that’s pathetic. Nice job pulling that quote out of context. That context starts with the fact that I was one one of the people around here who was first to start commenting on his dramatic improvement this year – and that was right around June 22.

              My strong recollection – consistant with the fact that I was very much on the Galvis band wagon at the time – is that in that reply I was making the OPPOSITE point that you are implying – i.e., that I was saying Galvis’ improvement was sustainable because it WASN’T BABIP driven (more specifically, I was commenting that his performance as of June 22 was much more impressive than his early April, BABIP driven high BA that got some people around here so excited, as by June 22 he had displayed some mid range power, slightly improved BB rate, and a decent BA despite a normal BABIP).

              And, umm, what relevance does a June 22 post have to do with our discussion about our CURRENT evaluation of his chances to be a regular next year? I’ve commented on THAT maybe 3 dozen times over the last 3 weeks, never raising the BABIP issue because it is not relevant. The issue is not a statistically sophisticated one – a guy who hits .273/.326/.400 in a very hitter friendly AA ball park isn’t going to come anywhere near .260/.330/.380 in the major leagues. Not next year anyway. As encouraging as his season was, player who perform at that level in AA do not get immediate jobs as regulars, even at SS, and when they do, they don’t hit very well at all. .But there’s every reason to believe that, with another year or two in the minors, he might eventually hit that well in the majors. Maybe around 2015 (though to be clear he certainly could be a regular before then).

              The irony is that, not only am I one of the most optimistic people about Galvis among the rational posters around here – maybe even the MOST optimistic – but the people who are advocating that he be a regular next year are basically advocating that the Phillies sabatage his career. I’ve criticized Amaro for some things, but I highly doubt that the Phillies’ would irrationally sabotage Galvis’ career by making him the regular SS next season.

              Try to keep up.

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            6. Disregard my previous question Larry – you are a total asshole to everyone. I just needed to read a few more of your posts to confirm.

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      2. I’d like to see his walk rate increase too but that’s not why I’m not sold on him yet.

        His breakout year has come out of nowhere. We have no idea if this is a fluke or this is a big step forward (I believe it’s the big step forward). For me personally, I can’t dub this guy the future shortstop without seeing him repeat this performance at least once.

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    2. Some of the non-metrics guys think that way because his breakout season came out of nowhere. I don’t really care about his BB rate but am interested to see if he can repeat his success in 2012.

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      1. 3up……agree with you there…lets see him repeat or come relatively close to repeating his production at LHV next year. And BB% at some point has to factor into his evaluation. Oddly, Latin players seem to have lower BB%s then North American players. Not sure how accurate a statement that is, but it seems that way to me.

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        1. Think you observation about Latin players is true. There used to be an old saying that you can’t walk your way off the island in regards to Latin players. The point being that a guy needed to hit the ball to get noticed.

          I agree that he needs to get better at playing “little ball” (taking walks, bunting, making contact) going forward if he’s going to be a decent offensive player because I doubt he’ll ever be a big Slg % guy.

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          1. I agree that he’ll never be a big slugging % guy, but I do think there’s a chance that he’s above average for a SS. I’m too lazy to look it up, but I believe he hit 8 Hr’s this year as a 21 year old in the high minors, and he had at least two jacks this year in spring training (one of which almost hit me in the head). I think he projects to hit low double digit hr’s with some double’s power – and with his low walk rate he’s going to need to do that to be a big league player.

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          2. I believe Juan Samuel was first to say that quote: “You can’t walk your way off the island” or something close to that.

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            1. Can you believe it? A little trivia on this subjet……that Bobby Abreu, is the leading Latin player in major league history with the most BBs—-over 1400 at last count. And he is shooting for the top 20 in baseball history with no active Latin born player even close to catching him anytime soon. Amazin!

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        2. I found Valle’s comment on this insightful earlier this year when he basically said that you do not get noticed in LA by scouts for walking. You get noticed for hitting so he has the mindset he has to hit anything thrown to get noticed .

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  26. Biggest leap is Glavis closely followed by Biddle.
    Biggest down is Brown. They handed him the RF job and instead of improving he forces RAJ to trade our best hitter and pitcher to replace him. Then he goes down and pouts for a month.

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    1. Yeah Brown’s attitude is clearly an issue. Let’s hope its something that can be chalked up to youth and he comes back next year ready to play mentally. But he certainly hasn’t covered himself in roses this year.

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      1. Clearly an issue? Based on what evidence? Invalid inferences from perfomances? An ambiguous quote from a since departed team executive?

        I see zero evidence of any additude problems on Brown’s part. I think there is some reason to think that his problems in the field towards the end of the year effected his confidence, but that’s not an “additude” problem.

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        1. Refusal to listen to Manual and Gross during spring training while sporting one of the most ridiculous batting stances in recent memory. Various reports leaked to the media from FO types, although most were probably attributable to Lamar. Moping since his return to LHV. That’s a start….

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          1. This is factually incorrect, he DID listen to Manual and Gross last year, which is what messed him up in the first place. He went back to his old stance, and was ‘fixed’.

            And since when was he ‘moping’? HE HAD ONE BAD GAME!!!!!

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            2. One bad game? Really? Im as big a homer as anyone but i dont think u can find anyone who’d agree that Brown had one bad game. He’s quite simply been awful since his demotion to the point that the LHV fans r booing him. Lets at least b honest about tjings.

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            3. I frankly suspect that neither narrative about his swing is correct – but I think it is hilarious how the “the coaches messed up his swing” narrative, morphed to the “Brown didn’t listen to his coaches” narrative based on no new facts, simply because a bunch of ignorant fans (only some of whom are racist) irrationally decided to turn on Brown.

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      2. Not sure it is an attitude issue, IMO more a confidence issue. He is a young man that needs some positives to occur and build on. I am hoping his FIL time will be fruitful.

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    2. He didn’t really force them to trade for Pence… the only thing he did to force them to trade for Pence was bat left handed and that’s not something he can change (well he can but it would be stupid to).

      The Phillies would have been in serious trouble if Victorino was the #5 hitter going into the post season.

      But, yeah, his attitude is really concerning. For the last few years, we’ve heard how coachable he is and how he really listens, but now he’s starting to become like Ryan Howard where he doesn’t make the adjustments people suggest to him. The only problem is that he doesn’t have the base of success that Ryan has.

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    3. Nobody forced RAJ to trade for anyone. He did that on his own because that’s what he does. At the time of the trade, Brown was having a fairly valuable season.

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  27. Upticks:
    1. Worley–ROY finalist? c’mon!
    2. Mayberry–most changed position player at higher level
    3. May–went from suspect to consistently dominant
    4. Galvis–already said
    5. Valle: solid hitting for 2/3 season, then hit a wall, pretty typical for a developing catcher, tons of offensive and defensive potential proven again at a higher level, especially contact skills; visions of sugarplums: what if he puts power, contact and plate discipline together and continues to develop defensively?
    6. Aumont–reversed last year’s struggles, only question is his ultimate role, no doubt he can be dominant at times in majors in some role, once he completes finishing school
    7. Rupp, started slow, but began showing a nice adjustment, nice offensive and defensive potential, reversed last year’s struggles
    8. Rivero–went from “who’s that?” to intriguing 3B/utility candidate with a little pop, needs another year to develop
    9. Savery–went from off-radar to a fringe prospect, role player
    10. Mitchell–played better in high minors, learning to be a consistent offensive player, possible 5th OF, congrats to him
    11. Tuffy Gosewisch–earned consideration for future backup role, late bloomer type who might contribute, eventual coach/manager?
    12. Cloyd: earned consideration as a #5 candidate or reliever
    13. Claypool–made himself into another guy who can dominate on a given day and did so multiple times in 2011
    14. Stutes–did not see him coming on this year as strong as he has; with more consistent command and proper use (?!), a solid middle reliever who can set up when needed

    The downticks seem about what they are every year, always some injuries and performance disappointments, usually, mechanical-, injury-, or attitude-related. But the upticks seem copious compared to most years.

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    1. Rivero’s tough. Definite step forward with the bat. But the limited time I’ve seen him in the field suggests he is not an MLB caliber third baseman.

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      1. We need to cut him a bit of a break. After all, he was a Shortstop until this season. The adjustment from Short to Third isn’t as easy as some think. Entirely different footwork. Much more of a reaction position.

        I would hope he continues to work hard at the position and shows improvement there next season.

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        1. I agree. I’m not sure why some think it is a simple transition. ARod was a gold glove SS, and he struggled at 3B his first season.

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            2. His body breaking down due to PED use and his resulting inability to cover the required area at SS. Or you already knew that and wanted to ask an obvious question??

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            3. That doesn’t make a bit of sense. You don’t know when Rodriguez began taking PEDs and you don’t know what year he stopped. So you are just throwing out random conjecture.
              I have no idea how PEDs would effective someones positional transition from SS to 3B. Even if I did, I would need to knowwhen the guy was using them, to attach cause and effect.

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            4. Rick is the same asshole libeling Brown by pulling rumors out of his ass & just making shit up, so I’m not surprised that he does it here also.

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            5. Well ARod’ s age could be a factor also in his struggles—after all he had played 10 season and had over 1300 games under his belt as a SS when he joined the Yankees–though he was only 28/29 years old,

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            6. You know he was taking them during his seasons in Texas b/c he was caught and admitted as such, so let’s start with 2001/ 2002.

              And I haven’t libeled Brown in the least bit, in fact I’ve defended him and said repeatedly that I hope the winter off helps him get his confidence back. However its no secret that members of the FO weren’t happy with his offensive approach in Spring Training and issues of attitude have come up since his demotion to Triple A. How does that make me an asshole again?

              BTW, is it sweet irony that LarryM is calling someone else on this blog an asshole? He’s such a prick that even when he’s right I find myself disagreeing with him. But thanks for getting personal with someone you disagree w/ Larry as you do repeatedly.

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            8. VOR – What I need to do is reserve my ire for Rick and his ilk. Which I mostly have been doing lately – with one exception – which I apologized for.

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            9. That really isn’t the truth. You’re an obnoxious ogre to anyone with whom you disagree, usually resorting to personal attacks. So don’t break your arm patting yourself on the back for good behavior.

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        2. Plus, the Indians kept him off their ’40’ –and didn’t he have the wrist surgery last year? Maybe the Indians wanted to move on, not quite sure how he would be after the healing.

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    2. DD, that’s a good list, but what about Franco? Also, you have Rupp on your list and he had a worst year this year than last. I’d go:
      1. Franco – Out of top 30, to top 5-10 prospect.
      2. Mayberry – Out of top 30, AAAA player, to legitimate Starting LF candidate
      3. Stutes – Out of top 30, to legitimate late inning BP piece
      4. Galvis- from 22 on BA list to 5-10.
      5. Worley – from fringe #6 starter to #3 rookie in baseball.
      6. Rivero – from being released fron Indians 40 man, to top 20 Phillies prospect
      7. Aumont – from high draft pick bust to top bullpen arm in Philles system.

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      1. On Rupp, his power and BB stat was a bit better last year, but he showed better contact skills this year in full season, which is big, catching regularly and adjusting to the grind. He’s super big. He will hit for power. I think he stepped forward with .023 points better OPS in about 60-70% more ABs, at a higher level. I don’t think anyone was thinking of him as a possible starting catching prospect, but who knows, he could be one of those old-fashioned workmanlike guys who hits .270, .330 OBP, 15-20 HRs, etc, catches a good game, is a boulder blocking the plate. Not a high chance of that, more likely a decent backup, but you can dream on him based on his first two seasons. Also, some of his upside could come from him not hitting righties well. Easier for a RH bat to learn to hit righties than vice versa, so you’d expect him to improve. He mashes against lefties.

        On Franco, he should be on an uptick list. But his problems at Lakewood are a small concern. He’s a guy who will have to prove he can handle full-season ball. I’m with you, I like him, just cautious.

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  28. I’d like to throw my vote in for Pointer as taking a step foward. Maybe not the leap as other but I didn’t want to regurgitate the same names.

    Keeping with the GCL theme the step backwards is Musser. Not a very good showing for his first year in professional ball.

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  29. Because Brown is the “lone man standing” after all of the mid-season acquisitions and the Phillies are frequently quoted somewhere saying, “we will trade anybody but Brown…etc” he has become the face of the minor leaque development system. He is still young, highly skilled but not a natural born baseball player, and possessed of a long lanky physique which he still hasn’t grown into enough to use his baseball skills. Prior to getting Pence his counting stats and his proficiency was increasing on several fronts – his averages, BB, and his power were slowly beginning to show. The risk was always that a demotion would disappoint him and he would, through frustration, regress – so that’s what may have happened. It still does not change his becoming more familiar with the league and his stats improving as they were. Brown will be fine but he needs more time, more fielding, and more experience. Most of all he needs the fans to get off his back.

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    1. Just b/c you declare that Brown will be fine doesn’t make it so. In fact a steady regression throughout the season has led many to concern themselves with the fact if indeed he will be fine. We all – or at least most of us – want him to succeed but he’s shown nothing since his LHV demotion that he’s going to do just that. Constantly stating that “he’s young” as an excuse for baserunning mistakes, fielding errors and erratic hitting will eventually wear thin. It’s his 6th year of pro ball – and Chuck LeMar said it best – its time for him to take his head out of the sand and step up.

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  31. Top Gainers:

    Major Leaguers (that started in the minors): Worley, Bastardo, Mayberry.

    Call it a 3 way tie, with Bastardo benefitting a bit from luck, Worley playing above his talent, and mayberry emerging with a cieling I now consider a solid MLB outfielder.

    Minor Leaguers: May, Biddle, and Glavis

    May – I was always cautiously optimistic about this kid compaired to Cosart and Colvin, the biggest reason was all those K’s and good velo at a very similiar (practically the same) age. His command has slightly imporoved and he’s dominating at a higher level now. It goes without saying I think, that May clearly has the 1/2 profile in a future rotation. +++

    Biddle – Last year’s sample was too small, kid was coming from germantown prep, not exactly SoCal….so I expected a slight regression. Instead, he took two steps forward from last year. First, his numbers are better, and second they’re at a higher level. I’m a little disappointed at his lack of K’s which tends to make me think he’s going to end up more of a 2/3 pitcher then a 1/2, but either way I expect him to be capable of pitching a ton of innings. ++

    Glavis – Ah I don’t know what to say here, he’s 21 and in AAA, I was one of the bigger Glavis bashers on this site. So it’s a bit of crow. I’m half way between the group that says “He’s top 5” and “he’s gotta do it for another year”. So considering he wasn’t in my Top 30 last year, he’s one of the biggest jumpers, I rank him 8/9ish but haven’t put my list togeather yet to hammer it down. Has twice as much upside as he did last year for me, primarily becuase I never believed in his contact skills. While I don’t think they’ll ever be elite, I can see him posting a .280/.330/.400 line in the majors during his prime and given his defense, that’s good enough to start. But just for the record, NOT NEXT YEAR! I want him to get better with the bat first, and the phillies do have a contending team. +++

    Biggest Downers:

    Brown: He’s like Neo from the Matrix, when the old lady is like “Kid, you got the talent, but you’re waiting for something”. I’ll cheers a nice single malt 18 year old McCallan tonight hoping he stops waiting around for whatever “it” is…

    Colvin: Numbers have imploaded, still has the talent and is young enough to bounce back. Not a whole lot to say here.

    Schwimer: Love the guy, but I am now slightly concerned his stuff won’t play at the MLB level… could change though… (Yes I realize he had great numbers this year in the minors… and it’s a small sample size, etc…) Only a slight regression in my mind.

    Biggest Player not Mentioned:

    I am not all that impressed with Valle, his power is down, his strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and his .280 average is supported by a .360 BAPIP. Next year could push him into the stratosphere of prospects league wide, or prove he profiles more as a fringe starter. At 22, a catcher, in AA next year, he’ll be young for the league but I want to see those 16+ HR’s he put up in low A return before I’m ready to annoit him given his low BB. That said, if he comes back next year and posts a .290/.350/.500 line, I’ll eat crow again… (like i did with glavis). I am however very happy with his defensive improvements and becasue of that, even with an average bat for a catcher, I suspect he profiles as an MLB starter.

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    3. May went from 5.4 BB/9 in 2010 to 4.0 BB/9 in 2011. That is a significant rate of improvement. If he continues to improve at half this rate over the next two seasons, May’s control will no longer be an issue.

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  32. I’ll start with Thanks Gregg! We all appreciate all that you do to add content and interesting things for us to read and discuss. The biggest downs for me were Brown, Colvin, Gillies, Eldemire, and Walter. They really fell short of my expectations. My ups are Mitchell, Cloyd, Galvis, Ruf, and Savery. These guys made themselves relevant from being irrelvant and that’s the toughest thing to do. I expected Biddle, May, Pettibone and JRod to do well even though they exceeded my expectations. Who really expected Cloyd to look like a possible major leaguer after the season? Who, except for those passionate few, expected Mitchell to look like a major league 5th outfielder like he does now?

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        2. Actually he could be involved in both. Back in 11/1998, the Philles signed minor league six-year free agent catcher Alberto Castillo but than lost him in 12/1998 to the Saint Louis Cardinals in the rule 5 draft. It’s rare but possible.

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  33. The Eldemire thing is puzzling. He’s hasn’t really ever played for the Phillies minor league teams in two whole seasons. What is wrong with him? What’s the prognosis? When will he be back? What the ****?

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    2. I talked to him back in spring training and he said his hand still hurt. He subsequently had surgery again to try and get his hand right.

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  35. Seems Austin Hyatt is not on many posters radar—but like to give him a plug and think he has a chance fo be the opening day starter with the Pigs next spring. Here is a statement from Bob Milacki on Hyatt’s progression.
    ………’According to Reading pitching coach Bob Milacki, who previously coached with the Class A Lakewood BlueClaws, Hyatt’s pitching repertoire has come along quite well since Milacki first saw the Georgia native when Hyatt joined the ‘Claws for their postseason run two years ago. But while some people evaluate Hyatt, whose fastball tops out in the mid-90’s, as having been old for each level he has pitched in, Milacki feels that Hyatt’s progress is leading toward bigger things. “Overall, I think he has a chance (to reach the Majors), especially with his slider coming around and he’s always had a good change up,” Milacki said. “He’s one of the few guys I’ve seen (at this level) that has a swing-and-miss fastball. And that’s not because of his velocity, it’s because of the angle,” Milacki stated.

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    1. Hyatt had a strong season. He had a strong season in 2010 as well. For me he’s a “stock even” guy. My assessment of him is the same.

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        1. He’s the same prospect he was last year. That is, about 21-25 on the Phillies list. Quite old for a prospect but older pitchers still make impacts, especially in the bullpen.

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  36. I would hope he would be a member of the AAA Pigs’ starting rotation considering the overall success he had in Reading this season plus the fact that he will be 26 years old already in May 2012.

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    1. JimKaat…….and if comes out of the gates strong next April/May, who knows, he could get a call up for a start or two in June/July at the ‘Bank’ if any of the starters ends up on a 15-day DL.

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  37. I remember an older rookie pitcher for the Phils in 1957. Jack Sanford was 27 years old when I saw him pitch a six inning no-hitter against the Cubs. He was traded to the Giants and was a key to their winning the pennant and almost a World Series except that Bobby Richardson got in the way of the McCovey line drive that would have won the seventh game.
    It is not often, but they do come along. I am rooting for Austin Hyatt too.

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    1. Sanford was a special case. He missed almost two years serving with the U.S. Army. Otherwise he would’ve been in the majors earlier I believe.

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  39. Amazing that only one person thanks Gregg, and Murray is probably his father. Y’all are in such a rush to jibber jabber you can’t even honor PP’s simple request.

    Thanks from a daily lurker Gregg, please keep up the good work!

    I would just say that maybe Colvin didn’t take a step backward this year – sometimes a colossal failure forces necessary change. He is still young enough to fully exploit his talents.

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