Open Discussion Post, 02 March 2011

Spring Training 2011

Here is where you panic about Domonic Brown’s slow spring start, whether or not we now regret trading Michael Taylor, and anything else you want to talk about, prospect related of course. I just gave you a bunch of topics. Go!

107 thoughts on “Open Discussion Post, 02 March 2011”

  1. how is michael taylor even doing? he struggled an awful lot last year in oaklands AAA. I see dom spending the year in AAA because he is clearly struggling you cant ignore that amount of strike outs regardless of how few games it is, but I think hell find his mojo back in LV in time to take over for raul. Hopefully francisco can live up to the hype hes creating for himself. Lastly, anyone else surprised cesar hernandez got an AB in the game? and a hit for the matter even though it was likely against a minor leaguer still pretty impressive and surprising since hes coming from williamsport.

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  2. Interesting to watch a few spring games and see the pure lack of position player prospects in the Phils system. Just about everyone playing after the fourth inning is organizational filler. Really important for the Garcia, Gelvis, Gillies, Brown, Valle, and Singleton to continue to develop. On the flip side, it is nice to see so many good young bullpen arms.

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    1. if you have arms to trade, and a budget for free agents, the lack of position players becomes a non-issue…also, as you indirectly alluded to, there are position players, they are just at a lower level right now..

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  3. Interesting that Hernandez got a hit in the game. His hit does not impact anything, but the fact that he is on the mlb 40 man roster keeps making me believe that he will be double jumped to Clearwater this year. I can’t see burning up option years in A ball. My projection for the rosters don’t show any real prospects blocking him. He has shown elite patience and contact at each of the lower levels. He could probably handle the jump.
    Clearwater projects as Hanzawa repeating at SS, Barnes at 2B and maybe Shoenberger or Buschini at 3rd. Hanzawa and Buschini aren’t guarantees to make a roster. Barnes can be moved to 3rd or back to SS to make room for Hernandez.

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  4. Hopeing that the phillies can get some young infield prospects this draft. Does anyone know if the draft this year is strong? and is it strong in infield prospect. In a perfect world if we had a real legit shortstop or third prospect then this team could continue on without spending a ton on shortstop or second orthird basemen to replace aging veterans. but i still believe rollins has three years left. so a good draft could find his replacement.

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      1. The current mock drafts have numerous HS and College Shortstops rated between 20-80. The Phillies have the 39th and 66th picks, I believe. If they want a SS, there should be good ones available.
        Going by their normal draft strategy, I would think they will take a HS position player at 39. A HS pitcher or sophomore eligible (Susac) doesn’t make sense in the compensation round. Their leverage would cost the Phillies to pay or lose the pick.

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        2. “Their leverage would cost the Phillies to pay or lose the pick.”

          Let’s all stand and give “mike77” an ovation. Does Dave $$$ Montgomery know about “mike77”? He should definitely be on $$$‘s payroll.

          Let’s do what we can to keep the Phils draft spending in the gutter. That’s the way to greatness!

          Just look at the Astros.

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          1. Just look at the Phillies, the team he actually runs. Again, if you cannot be happy with the Phils franchise as it is right now, you are destined to a life of misery.

            What mike77 was saying was not advocating a draft strategy – everyone here wants more spent on amateurs – he was making a prediction based on the Phils’ previous drafts. In early rounds they usually pick a high-risk / high-reward type who will sign for slot.

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  5. No panic on Brown but I saw him in both games against the Yankees and it was ugly. I noticed a lot of hand movement just before pitchs. He was dropping his hands like he suddenly remembered that they shouldn’t be so high. Pitchers were getting him out with minimal stuff.

    I was very high on Taylor but I still think the Phils did the right thing keeping Brown through all the trades. Taylor is 2 for 8 with a HR and 3 RBIs in 2 games of ST. Gio Gonzalez struck out 5 in 2 innings yesterday. I really liked this kid when we had him.

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  6. We should just trade Brown now, while he still has some value. Do you think maybe we could get Gose back for him?

    Seriously now, it bugs me when teams make players change stuff once they reach the majors. Players were successful for certain reasons in the past, so don’t mess with it.

    This particular situation reminds me of Dustin Pedroia. When he got called up people told him to stop swinging so hard, it wouldn’t work in the majors. He sucked for a while, then went back to his old approach. I’m not saying this will be true for everyone, but meddling with something that has been working well generally seems like a bad idea.

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    1. Well, supposedly they are having him switch back to his minor-league swing since the high hands thing was something he suddenly started doing last year after being called up. He’s definitely thinking too much at the plate right now.

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      1. I also heard that his hands being so high was something that started in the majors last year. Hopefully that is the case and he gets comfortable in the stance that brought him success in the first place.

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      2. I think you nailed it when you said he is thinking too much right now, he just needs to get a little more comfortable and he will be fine. I think he will start hitting in the next few games.

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    2. I don’t know why people are discussing Brown’s swing. It’s the lack of a swing that’s the problem.

      He was watching called third strikes go by yesterday, even against a RHP.

      Looked good signing autographs though.

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    1. Have.
      Should have.
      Not should of.
      Anyway, I disagree. Dom Brown needs some time and seasoning. He’s going to be fine.

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  8. I think Dom Brown will be fine…he is probably squeezing too much…worst case scenario I think he spends first 2 months in Lehigh. Still plenty of ST to turn it around.

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  9. Dom Brown is our guy and he is probably just nervous and pressing a bit, let him relax and get comfortable and he will be fine.

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  10. I saw the replay last night some his strikeouts were on really tough pitches or questionable called strike three. At this point I say keep on keeping on with him. Worst case is he starts at Lehigh and gets to work with Ryne.

    I like what I see from Ben thus far so there is no pressure. Even beyond that we have plenty of stock to make a deal for offense if needed.

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    1. Get out of here!

      That last strikeout was against a RHP and it was laid up there right in the zone. He should have smashed it, just watched it go bye.

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  11. I’m keeping my eyes on JC Ramirez now. His 1st outing (4 Ks, 94-95 on the velo) has me really excited that last year’s hip issue has been resolved and that he is a legit talent. Probably a lot to assume on one outing, but if he continues what he started, he becomes a top 10 prospect easily. Start him at Reading and let’s see what we got!

    As for Dom Brown, the changing his swing/hand position smells a little like the changing of Aumont’s delivery last year. I hope we don’t get that kind of wasted year out of Dom. The pressure is only going to grow, so I’d almost like to see them send him over to the minor league Spring training soon to work through the change. Right now, he’s fighting for a starting MLB job on a WS contender while changing something mechanical. That’s a lot for a young player to handle, if you ask me. I’m pulling for him!

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  13. Dom Brown is the long term solution in RF, he’s just not the immediate solution. I suspect that Ben Francisco get’s 400+ ABs this year with D. Brown starting in LHV. This would not diminish Brown’s uber-prospect status, and his career would benefit by getting a few extra months in AAA.

    I also feel that the capabilities of Francisco are being overlooked by many. With the appropriate amount of plate appearances he’s a potential .275 / 20-20 guy. His right-handed bat is also a perfect fit for our lefty heavy lineup. He’s going to get alot of at-bats this season and I think he’ll respond well.

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    1. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Brown sent to AAA to start the season and then brought back up in early/mid June.

      I also wouldn’t be surprised if Brown finishes the Spring strong and stays on the 25 Man.

      I think everyone is freaking out way too much over the first couple ST games. Its only Mar 2nd…give the kid some time.

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      1. Couldnt agree more. He has 12…yes 12..Spring Training AB’s. He had less than 100 major league at bats in a part time role he was unaccustomed to. He has NEVER struggled in the minors, just give the kid a chance.

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  14. I think Brown just needs one strong week before the end of spring training, and then he will be the starting RF opening day.

    If he continues to struggle in ST, he’ll return to AAA to start the season; then, he’ll become the starting RF by mid-season (One of the added benefits of this alternative is that Brown’s free agency is delayed one year until the end of the 2017 season.).

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  15. Although it is only a handful of ABs, it is alarming to see how D Brown is handling pressure for possibly the first time in his life. Up until now, it has been a smooth ride, professionally speaking, I am not referring to any pressures he may face in his personal life. It is discomforting to see him struggle like this. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to the challenge he faces, will he “man up” and turn it around, or will he continue to struggle and get into his own head. I have always believed that what separates the great players in any sport from the mediocre and “wannabees” is what is between the ears. We will soon find out if D Brown has what it takes mentally to succeed on the highest level. I am sure everyone is pulling for him to break out of his funk and put it together. I wish him well!

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    1. Seriously, you’re judging him based on 12 at-bats? 12 SPRING TRAINING at-bats?

      And Brown hit .214 in rookie ball. I’d say that’s more significant adversity than 12 spring training at-bats.

      I’m amazed at how quickly people can declare the sky is falling.

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  16. Sounds like Brown is just pressing. He’s not a critical piece until 2012 when Raul moves on. Let him spend the season in LHV.

    JC’s first outing has me psyched as well. I hope he builds on it and starts the season at Reading.

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  17. Just read that Sherrill chose Atlanta because he wanted to be within driving distance of his father. I was seriously perplexed as to why the Phils didn’t sign him, but this is why.

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  18. Anyone see that Keith Law has a list of six prospects that could make a Mike Trout jump to the top of the prospect rankings, and Jonathan Singleton is first on the list, and he even gives Cosart a little love in the article.

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  19. Too much is being made of Dom in these spring starts. I believed since this all started that Ben should be the everyday right fielder at least for this year. Dom should play everyday in Triple A and pick up those at bats and new stance, etc there. It seems like a lot to ask of him to do this in one month given all the media attention surrounding this whole right field thing. He needs to get his confidence back. Dom is too good a kid and too good a player to be put in this kind of situation. I think the Phillies are doing him a disservice. Don’t rush this guy!!

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  20. Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez are hitting .125 each. Cliff Lee has an ERA of 9.00. Its too early to draw any conclusions. And in fact, its really not worth drawing conclusions based on ST stats even when the exhibition season is over.

    MLB.com is promising a free webcast of today’s game against the Orioles. Oswalt, Worley, Bass, DeFratus, Herndon and Lidge are today’s scheduled pitchers.

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  21. Ok, 12 at bats, I am going to say that again. 12 at bats so far. Granted 8 Ks is alot in that time, but its only 12 at bats, he will come around, just give him alittle more than 3 games…

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    1. Dom Brown has had the same or more at bats than most players. Stop with the excuses, Francisco has earned the job. If the hits were turned around Brown would have had the job no question and don’t forget Brown’s lack of defensive skills. Give Francisco some respect,

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      2. Haha… Best overreaction ever!

        He managed to win the job in three games? That’s very impressive. And to think, we have almost a month of spring training ahead of us.

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  23. Did anyone notice that Rizzotti hit for Brown yesterday with two on and two out in the bottom of the eighth? He walked. I would not have expected that Charlie would do this in a meaningless game, unless he was sending Brown a message that it is time to get his act together. Even so, I do not know if putting more pressure on the kid at this stage is a good idea.

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  24. No, Charlie has repeatedly said that Brown will play almost every day this spring. He’s going to have plenty of time to compensate for whatever is hampering him.

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  25. Rizzotti will be sent down shortly since minor league camp opened yesterday. It was nice of Charlie to get him and Hernadez an at bat before they send them down. They’ll be part of the first large group that gets sent down over the weekend when the rest of the minor league camp is in full swing. As for Dom, I’m actually very impressed with everything he’s said and how he’s handling himself in the face of adversity. Its obvious that he’s overthinking everything while he’s at the plate. He’s a super nice kid and he’s probably trying to please everyone and is listening to too many people. I can only imagine that a veteran team that expects to win makes Dom feel a great deal of pressure to earn his spot. However, he still has plenty of time to turn it around. There’s still 4 weeks of games remaining and plenty of at bats to get it figured out. Btw, my darkouse bench guy Barfield has been playing very well. If Charlie only plays him at 2B, it means he has no shot. However, if he gets time at 3B or in LF, it means that he has suddenly opened eyes and thrust himself into the mix so keep an eye on whether he plasy and at what position. Anyone else see how fat Young is? He certainly doesn’t look to me like a guy coming to camp in shape who wants a job.

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    1. Garcia was an average hitter in 2010, his PECOTA projection for 2011 is 238/288/355. I can’t see him being MLB ready at this point.

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    2. He actually got into the game late at 3B yesterday. Unfortunately, Young, Barfield, and Orr are all ahead of him, as is Bocock. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out. I assume Garcia will be sent to minor league camp in the upcoming big first wave.

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  27. John Mayberry and Michael Martinez both hit homeruns today. I’m rooting for Mayberry to make the team.

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  28. I like the corollary to Brown never having faced adversity and matching that to this Spring. This matched with his poor showing in Winter Ball, under Felipe Alou, worries me the most. With a special talent like Brown I figure that a lot of his struggle has to do with being under the microscope 24/7.

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    1. I’m in no way rooting against Brown, but I’ve felt that he should start the season in LHV since late last year. I still think he’ll be a stud, just not this year. I think Francisco will be our RF’er to start the year

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      1. “I’ve felt that he should start the season in LHV since late last year.”

        Was that when you heard that he signed on with Scott Boras?

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        1. LOL. Let’s just say that it may benefit the Phils to only call DBrown up when he’s ready to contribute at a high level.

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      2. I think if he goes down and gets used to the swing adjustment, he’ll start pummeling the triple A pitching and be ripe for a call up around August.

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  29. What a beauiful day in Clearwater so let’s play two as Ernie Banks would say and the Phils did. They won the B game this morning at Roberts Field 9-1 over the Blue Jays. But came up just short 6-5 in the afternoon game against the Orioles. In the B game Drew Naylor gave up the only Blue Jays run and Ryan Feierabend both pitched two innings. Then Contreras, Madson Romero and Schwimer came on to pitch an inning each before Dubee gave the cut sign to end the game after 7 1/2 innings. The three stars of today’s games were No. 1, Michael Martinez, No. 2, Cesar Hernandez and No. 3, Carlos Rivero. Only Martinez played in the afternoon game taking over for Shane Victorino in center.

    The No. 1 star Michael Martinez finally had a great day after a slow initial week. In the morning game he had a solid rbi base hit up the middle batting left handed and made a perfect one hop throw to home from center field that would have nailed the runner but Tuffy Gosewisch just missed handling the throw. In the afternoon game he hit a homer righthanded just inside the .329 sign down the left field line at Bright House. In the field he went back and caught a long drive in front of the .401 sign in dead center better than Victorino usually does.

    The No.2 star today second baseman Cesar Hernandez is on fire. After lining a single to left yesterday against the Tigers he singled and tripled in the B game. The rbi triple was lined over the rightfielder’s head cutting through a 15 mph wind blowing in from right. The ball landed at the base of the fence in right center. He also looked sharp in handling several chances in the field.

    The No. 3 star third baseman Carlos Rivero continues to impress at third. In the B game he lined a single to left in the first and then drove a line drive rbi double down the left field line in the second. In the field he made a nice short hop pick up at third by charging a high bouncing ball to get an out as well.

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    1. I’m excited about Hernandez. I’m definately on the band wagon now. When we were doing the top 30 I really did not know too much about him and did not give him his props. Seems like he continues to hit and plays a good field. Keep up the good updates RB. Kind of jealous. Wish I was in Clearwater. I have to make sure next year I make the trip down.

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    2. Good to here Rivero is doing a good job. He was the Indians 17th ranked prospect last year playing SS (Jason Donald #15). He had a hideous season last year, but was not bad the three previous seasons. On the Indians’ blogs they seemed disappointed that the Indians did not keep him on the 40 man, and allowed him to get away.
      Hopefully the Phillies got a steal.

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  30. I think if the Phillies would spend more in the draft we’d have an outfield prospect that held his hands high AND could hit better. I also believe the Phils have told Dom Brown to strikeout on purpose in every AB so that they can send him to the minors since he hired Scott Boras and delay his free agency another year.

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  32. RB–

    Thanks so much for the report.

    I always wonder how much credence one should give to 50 or so ABs in ST versus years of established minor league performance. I’d like to believe Martinez is actually decent, but his minor league career seems to say otherwise. I’m pretty confident Brown is going to be fine based on the last two years, even after 12 awful ABs. But sometimes ST performance can represent real improvement or regression. Hard to be sure when, though…

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  33. The Baseball Prospectus podcast is up. It has an audio review of the Phils farm system(short without much meat for regulars here). Keith Law is the special guest. They spend substantial time talking about Cosart and Singleton. Law said had Singleton even looked similar to his first half he would have had him in the top 15. Said he has the prettiest swing he’s seen in a long time and you could just tell that Singleton was tired at the end of the season.

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  34. They also talk A LOT about Cosarts fastball. They called it “Special”. Easy speed, lots of movement. Can locate it. Law said his curveball flashes + and WITH DEVELOPMENT should be a 60 pitch. Goldstein said he left him off because of injuries and because he doesn’t believe he currently has a good secondary offering.

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    1. Interesting that Law and Goldstein mentioned that they both got rave reviews from their Phillies’ sources about Aaron Altherr in instructional. Earlier in the discussion they talked a lot about knowing who to listen to, within an organization. Whoever gave Law the information on Altherr must be a trusted source, because he mentioned Altherr in the context of players who could jump into his list next year.

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    1. I find it amazing that people can complain about the Phillies spending when in our own division, we have teams taking massive loans to stay afloat (Mets) and teams openly pocketing revenue sharing money and casting off arbitration eligible players (Marlins, and thanks for dumping Cody Ross). Braves spending has remained stagnant the last decade. That leaves the Nationals who have only recently turned the corner.

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  36. New Site functionality: The ability to “ignore” a user, at which point, that users posts will stop appearing… PP PLEEEASEEEE give us this functionality!!!

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  37. Looks like Hamels had a nice start today. He pitched 4 innings and no runs. Mathieson pitched the 5th inning and walked a batter. Francisco w/two hits and Larish has a 2 run double. Brown 0-3 w/a punch out. I’m really hoping for success for this kid but each day it seems AAA might be the best spot for him. Mayberry has a hit, a walk, and a SB in the game.

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    1. Multiple innings for Scott Mathieson today. In Ft. Myers, 2IP, 1BB, 2K against the Red Sox. Nice to see him extended a little in the type of middle relief role he’d be expected to pitch during the season.

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  39. Stutes making a name for himself so far. Can’t get much better then this. He threw 10 pitches. All strikes and 2ks.

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      1. Starting pitching is worth more. If he can develop into a better Worley wouldn’t you want that?

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  41. Well they got out of it…a combined one hitter…Michael Martinez had two erros in the 9th but Perez got the save.

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  42. Any word on Bastardo? First I heard arm issues…then flu. Any updates? The Phils have a lot of potential righties for the pen in their system but lefties is pretty empty. After Bastardo we have Zagurski, Meyer, and Perez. Not sure what they have on Reading (Diekman and German?) and after that I’m not sure if we have any lefty prospects after that. Maybe they can convert Way or Hernandez.

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    1. Antonio Bastardo is scheduled to pitch today (Friday). Ryan Feierabend is another lefty in expected to pitch at Lehigh Valley.

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  43. Quick question: What’s the deal with Josh Barfield? Obviously they’re taking a flyer on him. But before he fell apart was he a legit prospect in the minors? Or did his excellent rookie year come out of nowhere? My point is, is there a legitimate chance he could piece it back together or not really?

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    1. Barfield in consecutive seasons was Baseball America’s 20th and 45th best prospect. He failed to develop. I don’t know if there were injuries involved, perhaps he was inflated by minor league parks or whatever.

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  44. I think this has been posted before, but Eric Pettis has a blog: http://epettis.blogspot.com/. Pretty interesting. Looks like he’s going to be at CLW this year, suggesting a permanent move to the bullpen. He was lights out in WPT last year at age 22.

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  45. Barfield had one fine year with the Padres, about 3/4 Utley. But the next year he found himself with the Indians. I think the Padres picked something up during the offseason or late in the regular season that suggested he was going to lose it, which he did with Cleveland. Why else would you give up on a guy who hits 13 hrs, bats .285 and steals 20 bases in their rookie season?

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  46. Barfield’s plate discipline wasn’t good that first season, nor was his OBP. Since that rookie season, Barfield’s K/BB ratio is about 8:1. That’s Hewitt-esqe. Barfield in the minor leagues struck out nearly three times as much as he walked. Carry that into the majors, and big league pitchers will eat you alive.

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