The voting was fairly close early, but Jesse Biddle stormed out to a substantial lead and takes the #8 spot with relative ease. The voting for #9 should be very very interesting. As I always remind you, if you want to write in a vote for someone not listed, vote the OTHER option, and then in the comments section write the word OTHER as well as your choice. That’s how I find them. Thanks.
1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7. Vance Worley, RHP
8. Jesse Biddle, LHP
9.
Phuture Phillies 
Will vote for either James or Gillies because they are the highest rated players on my list that have a chance at this spot. I like Altherr almost as much as either, though. JC Ramirez should be on the list at this point, but no use arguing the point. Guys are so anti all of the young men received in the Lee deal, that they’re not judged objectively.
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I have Domingo Santana as #9 on my list but I voted for Jiwan James since I have him at #7.
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James again for me.
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Domingo Santana all experts rate him higher.
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can someone explain santana love to me? he is young.. but did he improve at all from 2009 to 2010? Besides a good first week in 2010, what else did he do? yes he did great in the 2009 SS.. but 2010 he struck out and thats about it
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Went with Gillies over James. Both have basically the same skill set but Gillies is more advanced at this point.
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I went with Gillies here. I’m looking for a bounce back year. He will start of the year at Reading and end with Lehigh Valley. I’m thinking numbers like .290 to .300 w/40sbs.
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Getting tougher to vote now. I went with James. I was tempted to go with Gillies but he was just so awful last year when he was able to play (granted, he was hurt most of the time). I think he has to be a fringe top 10 guy until he proves himself again.
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Voted for Gillies at 7, voted for him at 8, I’ll vote for him again at 9.
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Gillies for the 3rd straight time.
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Gillies easily here.
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Gillies again – from #6 on my list. I think I would pick Santana here (instead of our current #7 Vance Worley), based on scouting I have seen. DeFratus is probably next after that, then James, Rodriguez, and probably Worley ahead of Pettibone. I like Altherr, too. He may sneak in ahead of Pettibone, but I think probably not.
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Went with James again only because he made a splash last year and could improve greatly with another year under his belt.
However, I really think the best guy left is Gillies, but not sure where he is after last year. I think Gillies will either crash and burn again, this time for good or…it would not surpise me if Gillies put it together this year and came up in September. If the right field situation remains unstable and Gillies has a great year in AA, I could see him coming up and moving Vic over to RF. What is the biggest need for the Phils, a more consistent offense. Adding more speed to the lineup could help the Phils accomplish that. Gillies needs to stay healthy and focus on playing between the lines, rather than snorting them.
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OK. Gillies it is. For some reason I see him as a Left handed Scott Hairston. Hope he has a little more and is at least Jacoby Elsbury.
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I am voting for Gillies. I will give him a mulligan on last year as a year where everything went wrong. I like his overall stats and I like his build and skill set. I think he rockets forward this year, but lingering concerns over last year’s injuries drops him to the bottom of the top 10. DeFratus will round out the top 10 for me – good, young closers don’t come along every day of the week.
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Gillies..for, I think, the 4th time.
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i went with j rodriguez based on last years work…based on that i think he can be above good…the 3 ofs in some order james alther and gillies will be next…i think all can be good but not sure about great…not yet…a scott hairston comparison for gillies scares me…im not saying its not accurate…just doesnt excite me
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Dave, it would have been foolish to rate Santana highly based on 139 plate appearances in the GCL. Obviously a lot of scouting went into that rating. Santana was jumped to the Sally League and was overmatched. But in the NY-Penn League he hit for power and walked more than 10% of the time. I think its plausable that Santana improved, but there is so much noise from small sample sizes and differences in league quality that you can’t see it from a cursory read of the statistics.
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By the way, I think one of the reasons that the Blanton trade is taking so long is that Amaro may be trying to pull of a much bigger deal than a mere salary dump. I could easily see him trying to use a Blanton trade as a means to acquire young outfield talent because I don’t think anyone in their right mind thinks our outfield situation is ideal. That, I think, would likely mean trading several of the young relief prospects we have. I think DeFratus is virtually untouchable but everyone else, including Phillippe Aumont (who will be a reliever soon enough) and Bastardo is probably in play.
Just going on a hunch here.
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Went Justin here because I like his chances to win a job with the big club. Won’t argue that Gillies is deserving of #9 but I would like to see him bounce back before I put him in my top 10.
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I went James. I just can’t get excited enough about Gillies. Slap hitter with some speed and D. I just think if James progresses he can offer at least as much as Gillies, but with alittle more pop in his bat. Obviously Gillies is more advanced but that does not mean as much to me in terms of ranking prospects.
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Also, I don’t see a Gillies/SHairston comp at all. Scott’s career high in stolen bases is 11. Jerry Hairston has a bit more speed but he’s largely an infielder. Hairston and Gillies have entirely different skill sets.
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Catch, it could be as simple as waiting for some secondary pitchers to sign (i.e. Pavano) and waiting for the market to sort out. The Phillies would likely get more for Blanton if teams have less options for starting pitching.
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I am curious. Why would they consider DeFratus untouchable?
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On another side note, a guy who closes in the minors does not get a high prospect rating from me either since alot of good bullpen guys are starters who don’t cut it. I think Aumont or May end up closing. Therefore DeFratus is outside my top 10 and maybe 15.
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@Jameson – The reports I have read about Gillies say he has a line-drive stroke. To me that’s value over what you might call a “slap” hitter. Guys with speed and line drive ability turn doubles into triples, and triples turn into runs so many different ways.
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Amaro I believe will try to pry away a young outfielder, but dont know if blaton is the key to it. unless they eat salary.
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@ B in DC
I still see James as having more of a power projection while still having the speed/D/BA tools. Also, in my opinion slap hitter and line drive hitter are the same. Of course turning doubles into triples has value, or stealing second can create runs, but if James maxes out he can do all that with more HR’s. Just my opinion, for i am not a scout.
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Alan is right. Hairston is a bad comp for Gillies. I don’t like the Juan Pierre comp that I always see either. I’ll go with Elsbury.
@B, In watching video clips of Gillies, he seems to have a line drive swing (That is,after he changed his stance midway through 2009). The stats do not match though. His LD% is not that impressive yet. Hopefully he stays healthy this year and a full year of that swing starts paying off.
Agree with Jameson. Can’t see taking DeFratus in the top 10 as a reliever. Do not see DeFratus as a mlb closer in the near future either.
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Galvis write-in again. I hope you guys know that he is on the 40 man roster and YOUNGER than James. Givw thw man some respect!
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Alan, you are right – it’s hard to know exactly what is going on with Blanton, but there really should be a market for him, particuarly given what is going on with Pavano.
As for DeFratus being untouchable – of course, I do not know this for sure, but if they think he has true closer ability, then, to me, he becomes a different class of pitcher because: (a) closers are inherently valuable, particularly when you have a group of great starters who make the back of the bullpen that much more important; and (b) closers are expensive – having a 24 or 25 year-old guy who can do the job (or who can begin as a set-up man and later move into the job), will save the team a lot of money that can be used on other things.
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I have Aumont here. At one point he was a consensus top 50 prospect. The big knock on him coming in was that he never put up a lot of innings and had injury problems, well, he answered those questions by logging 121 innings. Unfortunately he
lost his control this year and got lit up.
I think it’s important to remember two things, first he was converted to a starter and his mechanics were adjusted, second he was placed in AA as a 20 year old. For comparison sake, Trevor May who I have as my #5 prospect, is only a half a year or so younger than Aumont and he was placed at Clearwater where he scuffled a bit too. Certainly not to the same extent, but hopefully you see the point that Aumont was WAY to young for AA, especially considering the conversions.
Aumonts numbers are ugly, and that’s why he’s not top 5, but there were enough extenuating circumstances to adjust for that I gave him a bit of a pass and ranked him #9 on my board.
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Gillies again.
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Julio Rodriguez will be a major league starter someday, which makes him the choice here.
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Voted for DeFratus. Proximity + potential + results at every level. I think that Schwimer should be working his way onto the ballot soon – my guess is that he’ll rank somewhere in the 15-20 range
– Jeff
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I put Julio Rodriguez right up there with Cosart, May, and Colvin. He’s the youngest of the 4 (by 15 days under Colvin). Like the other 3, he put up great stats in Lakewood. But where he really shines is the way he is pitching in Puerto Rico, especially considering his youth.
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=phi
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=l_pit&sid=l133&y=2010&lid=133
Last year I wrote in DeFratus and voted for him 5 rounds in a row. DeFratus did nothing within his control to hurt himself. But he did grow a year older and was no longer a starter. I understand those who put DeFratus or Biddle ahead of JRod. The 3 are close for me.
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Galvis is easily our hardest prospect to judge. He’s always been two levels above where he should be based on age and skill set. Ideally the Phils would send him to Clearwater to clean up the infield for the young stud pitchers and refine his hitting. He’d be age appropriate there and with his D if he could put up an OPS of .700 and swiped 15-20 bags I’d probably put him in the top 10. The Phils would never move him back to Clearwater, and as it stands now, he’s never produced one glimmer of offensive production. That’s why I can’t even fit him in my top 30. He could move quickly though…
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There’s a lot of talent in this system. Seriously 25-30 has real potential to make the bigs. Sometimes those guys ranked that low are just rounding out the list but anyone of these top 30 guys the phils have wouldn’t suprise me if they make it to the show and have a good career.
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OK, @Jameson – Slap to me means more like a groundball-leg-it-out-singles type hitter. Semantics, I guess. But in 200 AB in low A, Gillies had 2 HR. In around 550, James had 5. Not much power distinction there. I haven’t seen that James is projected to have great power, just a reference on Scouting the Sally to him having a “natural lift”. In CBP, that could project to power, I suppose 🙂
Here’s another distinction – in his time at low A, Gillies had 24 steals and 7 caught in around 235 PA, (went to 45 and 20 in around 600 PA in high-A). James had 33 steals and 20 caught in just under 600. Advantage to Gillies by a fair margin. In this case, better base stealing and average, plus proximity to MLB for these somewhat comparable guys wins the day for Gillies over James, IMO, especially considering he’s only 6 months older. Now, if Gillies comes out and has another injury-filled year, he’ll drop like a stone in my eyes.
@Mike77 – If he turns out like Pierre, I will take Gillies. The low end comp I saw in one report showed him as a Dave Roberts type. That to me is where I think some people see James, and I agree with the scout I read who said James is getting comparisons to Brown simply because they have similar body types. Long and lean…but Brown flashed power early, James has yet to show much, if any.
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Other: Austin Hyatt
I mentioned the stats of Hyatt in the last poll and as someone stated that he was a year or two older than the competition at the level he was pitching. Like the reader mentioned that’s not his fault, he has pitched well at each level. It’s not his fault because he went to college and the Phils’ organization likes to start their college draft picks in the lower ranks just as if they were high school draft picks (they did the same thing to Ryan Howard). He’ll begin the season at AA Reading and likely move to AAA mid year and at age 25 that’s not too old for that level.
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…also are Cody Overbeck and Jeremy Barnes considered too old to be on this list? Not that I would have them in my top 10, just wondering for the later rankings.
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Agreed, If Gillies can be Juan Pierre with a better arm he would be a top-5 prospect on this list. Pierre had a stretch in FLA where he was a premier lead-off hitter who hit .300 with a high OBP and SB potential. He actually received enough MVP votes a couple of those seasons to put him in the top-20 for voting.
If Gillies even becomes a Michael Bourne he would be a great addition to the top of the Phillies line-up.
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Show me a table setting leadoff man who can fly and I’ll vote for him.
Oh yeah, that would be Tyson Gillies.
Now let the hype match the performance.
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Look you all know I have doubts about Gillies but if he makes it he will be
much better than Pierre who only topped 100 runs once in Colorado. With Marlins mostly he was plus .300 with tons of SBs and never topped
100 despite good teams.
If Gillies makes it like some think, he will easily hit 110/120 runs or more.
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hit as in Target Sorry
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Gillies actually has an adult male arm…so his defense is better than Pierre’s in CF.
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When I said I don’t like the Juan Pierre comps, I didn’t mean to imply that I thought Pierre was a bad player. Pierre was a very good player. I just think Gillies has more power potential and has much more defensive potential. For those reasons, I think Pierre is not a good comparable. That being said, Gillies probably prays that he could have a Major League career like Juan Pierre’s.
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I think almost any CF prospect prays to have a career as good as Pierre’s. WS winner, career. 298 hitter, 500+ SBs, nearly 2000 hits, etc.
That’s pretty high praise to even hope a prospect turns out like that. I’d be thrilled if he became Juan Pierre with a better arm.
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I just have a really hard time seeing Galvis’ upside as more than a bench guy. The optimistic take is that maybe he’ll develop to the point where he can hit over .250 in the major leagues – and people argue that such “adequate” offense will be enough given his stellar defense. But I don’t see it. He has no power at all & no reason to think he ever will. And he BB rate is horrible (92 BB in almost 1600 minor league PA) – even hitting .300 in the majors (extremely unlikely), with no power and no BB, that’s not a major league regular caliber hitter, even at SS and even with good defense.
IMO the only hope – and it is an EXTREME long shot – would be (in addition to getting his BA up, which is itself uncertain) to dramatically increase his BB rate. But I don’t see that happening.
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Okay, being the negative nellie hear today – but the Pierre comp – that would be a disaster. Superficially good enough that the Phillies might be tempted to make him a regular, but not good enough to contribute much to a major league contender.*
I mean, he isn’t horrible – and he was legtimately good for a couple years – but there are simply too many holes in his game.
*yes, yes, I know, but even teams that make the post season sometimes have subpar players – that doesn’t mean that contenders should aspire to have such players.
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I would put Galvis’s potential upside as John McDonald. At Age 23, McDonald posted a .578 OPS in AA. Galvis posted a .586 OPS in AA at Age 20 so there’s that to consider. However, McDonald was much better than Galvis in the lower minors (by about 100-150 OPS points).
Honestly, if Galvis has that type of career (utility SS), he’ll be lucky.
I will give Galvis credit though. He moved from Clearwater in 09 to Reading in 10 without missing a beat. His OPS has remained steady:
2008: .588 OPS
2009: .568 OPS
2010: .586 OPS
All the while, he’s moved up a league a year. Honestly, he should be starting Clearwater this year but he’ll be in his 2nd full season of AA (he first made it there in the tail end of 2009). He should be Top 20 just for his glove.
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****yes, yes, I know, but even teams that make the post season sometimes have subpar players – that doesn’t mean that contenders should aspire to have such players.****
He hit .305 with 65 SB the year the Fish won the WS…he was hardly “subpar” for them. Hell, he finished 10th in the MVP voting that year.
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@Mike77 – Didn’t mean to imply you didn’t think Pierre was a good player. I guess I’m with you on the Ellsbury issue – Gillies seems to project to hit more than 2 or 3 HR in a season – more like the mid-high single digits like Ellsbury figures to hit. We’ll see how his average holds up in AA, but I would like to think he can stay near .300, and that’s going to keep him in good SB situations so he can continue to learn on the bases.
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LarryM’s description of Galvis sounds like Larry Bowa through the early 70s. Phils are in a much different position now. He may not get the chance Bowa got.
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I can only imagine the wars we would’ve had over Larry Bowa.
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Kelly Dugan deserves to be on the ballot.
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In the 1970s/early 80s, a team had no problem carrying a no-hit, great glove SS. Its a different game today though. 30-40 years ago, Galvis would be well on his way to a nice comfortable MLB career just based on his glove.
Hell, when you have a spare moment, go check out HoF SS Rabbit Maranville’s career numbers. He finished 2nd in the MVP race in 1914 with a .632 OPS as a SS.
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There wouldn’t be any wars over Larry Bows, like there are with Galvis, because the game was different then. All positions hit today. In the 70’s it was rare to have a SS that could hit. Gary Templeton was head and shoulders above everybody else. Today he wouldn’t be anything special.
“Galvis should be top 20 for his glove alone”
Disagree totally. He is a bench player at best. Potential bench players are not prospects, IMO. You don’t need a minor league system to develop players of that level. The money you spend developing a Freddie Galvis can easily net you a Wilson Valdez for the league minimum every year.
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Gillies was being eaten alive by 90 mile per hour fastballs at Reading. Hopefully he rebounds this year but I saw nothing in his play last April/May to suggest he would be top 10 in any organization.
DeFratus looked like the real deal the couple times I saw him late in the season. He seemed to make hitters very uncomfortable. I did not see Hyatt at all but am anxious to see what he throws at Reading this year.
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Larry Bowa couldn’t be an everyday player in today’s game and Galvis isn’t even as good a hitter as Bowa was. Fortunately age is on Galvis’s side but he needs come a long way with the bat before he even gets into the discussion as a bench player.
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Mike—I generally agree with your assessment but Valdez may not be the best example as I see his defense as heads on shoulders above the utility players the Phillies have picked up over the past 20 years. Eg—–Batiste,Nunez,Castro,Jeltz,Sefcik–ect. Galvis is still young enough to find a bat. The Phillies have modified his approach a couple of times already. I liked him better hwen he was swinging as opposed to the slapping he tried for much of last year.
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If you don’t think 688 ABs is a lot(also see Jose Reyes) remember that Pierre would not pursue balls anywhere near a wall or another player.
Cheese you have me defending a player I doubt.
The Gillies you guys discuss WILL be a much better all around player,
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“I mean, he isn’t horrible – and he was legtimately good for a couple years – but there are simply too many holes in his game.”
LARRY
We agree again. What is this world coming to. The media loved Pierre
and turned a blind eye to obvious faults.
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I voted for Austin Hyatt (write-in) by a hair over Pettibone and James. This is where it really opens up though, all about personal preference. Could argue for 10+ guys here.
11.1 K/9 rate as a starter at A+/AA last year. Struggled a bit in AA, but a very small sample size. All of these other guys are too far away / too much could go wrong.
Surprised Gillies might take this round. Total disaster last year on and off the field. I’m hopeful for a bounce back as well.
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since gillies isn’t going to lose his better arm and better fielding I would jump for joy if gillies became pierre offensively! He was one of the most dangerous players on the base paths and one who pitchers had to focus on while focusing on the batter. How many guys get to 2,000 hits and 600+ SB’s in their age 33 season (if he gets 152 hits, down from 179 last year). I remember having to face Pierre and castillo 1-2 for a few years and I always felt like 1 of them would get on and reak havoc.
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Hyatt isn’t a top 15 player. He has been 2 years older than his competition at each stop except at AA. At AA he wasn’t impressive.
A Hyatt: AA, age 24, ERA 4.91, WHIP 1.36, HR/9 1.6, BB/9 3.7, K/9 10.2
Ramirez: AA, age 21, ERA 5.45, WHIP 1.45, HR/9 1.3, BB/9 2.5, K/9 7.0
Hyatt wasn’t significantly better than Ramirez at AA and was almost 3 years older.
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Jiwan James. More tools, and he’s putting them together. Justin DeFratus right behind, though. Tyson Gillies needs to get back on the field and put it together to merit being a Top 10er.
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Still voting for DeFratus. J Rod’s K rate per inning is a little low in Winter Ball. Of course, he is a little young for the league, so it is hard to know what that means, but it bears watching. Looks like Gillies leads the voting but I can’t vote him into the top 10 after last year without some sort of evidence that his skills are still there.
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My opinion on Hyatt – with the current big league rotation and the hot A Ball guys around, he’s less likely to have an impact in the bigs for the Phils, which in and of itself, shouldn’t devaule him. His best pitch is supposedly his change-up and his fastball I read only “touches” 94, meaning his avg is probably 90-91 – someone can correct me if that’s not accurate – but that means his change has to be in the low 80s to make a difference, and then where’s his third pitch going to sit? 74 MPH curve, anyone? If he can make a third pitch work, great. Also, a 24 year old ought to dominate A+, so some of his stats ring a little hollow for me. He’s got to be in the mix in the late teens, I’d guess, just based on those nice stats, and if he excels at AA, he’ll probably move up in my mind and be a worthwhile trade piece since barring a slew of injuries in 2012, they likely won’t need him to start, and the “young guns” might be coming in 2013 depending how they progress and if they stay as starters. For me, it’s Hyatt and Rizzotti and Garcia and maybe Aumont in the race to make the 16-20 against guys like Zeid and Pettis and maybe Dugan etc. I know I’m missing some guys there.
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“Hyatt isn’t a top 15 player. He has been 2 years older than his competition at each stop except at AA. At AA he wasn’t impressive.
A Hyatt: AA, age 24, ERA 4.91, WHIP 1.36, HR/9 1.6, BB/9 3.7, K/9 10.2
Ramirez: AA, age 21, ERA 5.45, WHIP 1.45, HR/9 1.3, BB/9 2.5, K/9 7.0
Hyatt wasn’t significantly better than Ramirez at AA and was almost 3 years older.”
Mike 77, I often agree with you and your point about Hyatt being a lot older is valid, but, man, what a selective use of statistics. Hyatt got 4 (count ’em, 4!) starts at AA, so those statistics don’t mean very much. Hyatt also struck out a lot of batters at AA and, in case we forget, pitched his butt off at Clearwater. So, yeah, the age thing is a huge deal but, really, he was not, in any way, the statistical equivalent of JC Ramirez last year. Hyatt had a pretty special year, although what one should make of it is subject to debate.
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I picked Gillies purely on his potential. 2011 could be a huge breakout year for him.
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markymark
The point I am trying to make is Gillies can all the thing Pierre was and much better. At least a 120 run season. If……….
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Catch 22 is right – devaluing a guy for 4 starts in AA is harsh. Now, if his July-August 2011 is as bad as his August 2010, then it’s arguable that he’s not getting it.
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****his fastball I read only “touches” 94, meaning his avg is probably 90-91 – someone can correct me if that’s not accurate ****
That’s typically what that phrasing means. For example, Joe Blanton “touches” 94 mph on his fastball but typically sits 89-91 during a game. Hamels “touches” 96 mph but tends to sit 91-93 mph during a game, etc etc.
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C22, you make a good point about the sample size of Hyatt’s AA Stats. But that is the point. Hyatt doesn’t have any usable stats to back up a top 15 rating. What he did in A ball is near meaningless. A 24 year old, college pitcher, with a change-up, fooling little kids, doesn’t tell me he is a good mlb prospect. If he dominates AA at some point soon I will change my position. Until then, he is Mike Cisco II.
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It’s hard to evaluate talent seeing them play only a couple of times each season at most. But the two series last season in which I saw Derrick Mitchell play for the Treshers in right and then center I was impressed each time. He and Aaron Altherr at Short Season impressed me the most of all the outfielders I saw play in the system. In the last Thresher homestand of the season D-Mitch showed all his tools including climbing the wall in left center at Brighthouse to bring back a ball for an out on what appeared to a certain home run. D-Mitch was right up there among organization outfielders in steals 28/34, assists 17, led the Threshers in slugging and with 13 homers. He hit over .300 from Aug. 1st to the end of the season. And as he told me his hitting coach at A+ agreed that his swing is made for Reading’s stadium. He should be one to watch at AA.
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I like Gillies here. … I’m with a bunch of other people in wondering what I should think about Domingo Santana–he was one of the hottest names on this board a year ago, and he’s basically fallen out of the conversation. I feel like I haven’t really heard any good intel on what happened to him last year–whether it was merely a very young player’s growing pains or evidence of more lasting problems. I’m presuming he stays at Lakewood next year, right? Seems like three years of the Penn League would be a little much.
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Need to add a little comedy to this discussion. See the link below for proof that not just anyone should be allowed to do a prospect ranking.
A few highlights … #10 Andrew Carpenter … no Colvin or Cosart … it’s like looking at a train wreck, I had to keep looking at it!
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/554499-philadelphia-phillies-power-ranking-the-top-10-prospects-in-their-farm-system#page/1
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That is one awesome list…Worley at #3?!? Aumont at #2?!? I mean, wow.
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Longtime reader but first time commenter at PhuturePhillies, and I felt this was as good a time as any to join in the discussion. Anyway, I voted Tyson Gillies in this spot due to his up-side and relative proximity to the Majors. He obviously had a bad year between the legal troubles and injuries, but I think he has a good chance of having a big year in 2011. His upside is probably a Shane Victorino type All-star/Gold Glove Centerfielder, possibly with a higher batting average, but maybe less power potential. Anyway, i’m pretty excited to see how his season goes, and hopefully he can earn a permanent spot on the Major League roster by 2012.
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Tom—Thanks for sharing the link—that list is crazy. Writer even suggested that Gillies put up significant numbers at Reading which we all know is far from the truth.
Base on his poor research, I am surprised he did not have Gose,Villar and Steve Arlin on the list 🙂
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Is that list for real? I’m no master of all things or anything, but that seems like the guy went through MILB and found names he recognized, then tacked them to a wall and threw darts at them. I was thinking around #4 that Tagg Bozeid would be #2 or #3.
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I thought concepion played in the seventY????
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Sorry hit the button mike 77 I know you like stats. dave c. was 5 time allstar and 9 gold gloves I believe. gary templeton hit 271 lifetime dave 267 . gary templeton was not a good fielding shortstop led league in errors at least three times i believe. I remember him well he was good hitter, with some pop.but not a good fielder.
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from that list
“Aumont was acquired in the Roy Halladay deal in 2009 and struggled in 2010 in AA. The Phillies felt he was ready for that level ”
Were they drinking?
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DeFratus again. If he’s called up at some point this season, I don’t see any way the Phillies envision him as a rookie closer. Maybe he’ll get the odd blowout game or an extra inning game. But, for me, he fits nicely as a 6th or 7th inning guy being groomed slowly for 2012 and beyond.
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Glad to see at least some discussion on Galvis. I think we are looking at more than abench player and so do the Phils–otherwise, why would they protect him from rule5–he is the heir apparent to Rollins–I had him rated in my Top5
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MikeMike… you’re so wrong about Gary Templeton. He was an outstanding defensive SS in his hey day. He led the league in errors only because he got to more balls than the average shortstop.
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JimKaat, you are right. Templeton was great, but didn’t get his due at that time because the game was different in the ’70s-early ’80s. With Ozzie Smith and Bowa being better defensively, they usually got the Gold Gloves and All-star nods.
The conversation wasn’t originally about defense though. It was about today’s SS (Galvis)having to hit better than Larry Bowa to be a starting SS. I pointed out that Templeton was a rarity as an offensive SS in the’70s. Whereas now, he would not stand out.
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Galvis is excellent defensively, but i’m still not sold on him ever developing into even a passable starter offensively on the Major League level, but I suppose anything is possible. His ceiling right now looks to be as some sort of Defense-first Utilityman, maybe somewhat like a Wilson Valdez. He is far away from reaching the production level Jimmy Rollins had during his best seasons, and it is quite a longshot at this point to ever expect that out of him. Anyway, I seriously hope the Phillies aren’t truly betting on Galvis as being the next franchise shortstop after Rollins.
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The thing with Galvis is that he IS only 20 (21 in 2011) and he’ll be in his 2nd full year in AA and 3rd year total. He could sit there for 2 more full years and still barely be age appropriate. He could easily thicken up, mature, gain 15 lbs and become a legit utility bat (.260ish hitter with no power).
They’ve also been pushing him to switch-hit (which isn’t natural for him.) so there’s that to consider. The FO definitely sees something in him.
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****His ceiling right now looks to be as some sort of Defense-first Utilityman, maybe somewhat like a Wilson Valdez****
Yeah, I see him in that light too. John McDonald would be a great comp for his potential. McDonald has managed to stick around for parts of 12 seasons (2025 PA total) as a great utility glove mostly at SS.
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Tyson Gillies.
A potential starter at a premium defensive postion is worth more than any potential relief pitcher. Jiwan James gets my next vote.
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Thanks for adding Pettibone.
Compare him to his Lakewood teammate Brody Colvin, who’s the same age. His WHIP is better: 1.18 to 1.30. Hitters got more hits against Colvin, but struck out a bit more. On the other hand, Julio Rodriguez put up great numbers, with more Ks that either in only 56 innings (vs 131 for Pettibone and 138 for Colvin). If JRod’s performance had held up in twice the innings, he would be top 3 material; I think both Pettibone and JRod should be top 12 at least.
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Pettibone is a serious sleeper candidate.
Totally agree with you on that, erich. His K rate isn’t as high but he’s got a solid GB rate and very good BAA and WHIP (as you noted).
Definitely like all the projectable arms in our system…I just hope we have a few of them actually pan out in a Phillies uniform.
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I see some pretty good potential in both Pettibone and J-Rod, but I still think it’s too soon to rank either of them as top-tier prospects, although both of them should make the top 30 prospect list, either at the middle or end of the picks.
There are plenty of promising prospects in the system, but many of them have a good chance of never panning out. The top 10-15 prospects should be made up of guy’s who have shown more than mere promise, and look to be at least reasonably close to ‘can’t miss’ prospects, barring injuries or a total collapse.
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I think both will be in the 10-20 range (probably closer to 15-20).
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Derrick Mitchell is a good example of the athlete working hard to become a baseball player. His RBIs were up in 2009 and his average rose in 2010. I will be looking to enjoy his play in Reading. He should hit for power there.
This brings up Reading as an aberration in the system. Players never seem to hit as well elsewhere. Look at Neil Sellers. He did nothing at Lehigh Valley after burning up the Eastern League at Reading, especially with his “power”. When I see someone’s stats go higher at Reading, I wait to see what they will do at Lehigh Valley. I think the park has a lot to do with it. I wonder if the Phillies look at it that way too. It seems you can promote pitchers from Reading to the majors, but you have to see hitters somewhere else to know what their power stats really are.
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It could be an issue with league difficulty but also a matter of park and league factors. Oddly, the Eastern League had more runs/game in 2010 than even the Texas League. That surprises me. I fired off a tweet to Dan Szymborski who does perhaps the best “free” projections available to see if he’s willing to share the Lehigh Valley park factor he uses.
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Gilles here if he can get back on track he can be an elite prospect. Ok one more thing for everyone. Just look how accurate this is it’s hilarious http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/554499-philadelphia-phillies-power-ranking-the-top-10-prospects-in-their-farm-system
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To Keystone: Regarding Overbeck, I don’t think he is too old for this list, but it does hurt him. Last year Bastardo, Matheison, Schwimer, and Rosenberg were older players in the top 30 high on the list and on my list, and Mayberry, Flande, and Savery were picks I didn’t agree belonged in the top 30. Matheison was 10th at 26 years old in 2010. At 24, most good prospects have had a full season at AAA, while Overbeck was at A+ and AA. He could be a late bloomer, and he seems to have some potential to hit with power and get on base, perhaps with a 700-750 OBP in the MLB. If he could field I might put him in the top 30, but his fielding alarms me more than his age. He’s made 59 errors at 3B in 275 games for a .918 career fielding percentage, does not show good range to make up for it, and does not seem to be getting any better.
Barnes is a year younger but 2 levels behind Overbeck, so he’ll have to progress to past A+ to AA as a 24 year old this year for me to consider him much of a prospect, but at least he can play 2B, SS, and 3B. Among the older prospects, for my money Harold Garcia, Matt Rizzotti, Tim Kennelly, Bastardo, Schwimer, Matheison are all better than Overbeck and Barnes, so while both can be breakout candidates, I can’t see either in the top 30 as of now.
By the way, I think Cesar Hernandez is the best prospect not to have been discussed yet. I have him around 15th, just behind Galvis and just ahead of Garcia among the middle infielders. The mere fact that the Phillies protected a 20-year old second baseman, because they think they could have lost him in the Rule V draft, says a lot. I disagree those who say Galvis will never hit with power. He might. He is so young for AA ball, it is very hard to tell, and lots of hitters take time to develop their HR power. He has hit 6 homers in 608 AA at bats, as a 19 and 20-year facing pitchers mostly at least 2 years older than himself. He could also learn to draw walks as he matures, another skill that he has time to develop. He does make good contact. Besides simply taking more pitches, perhaps he could learn to foul off more good pitches to spoil them, rather than hitting them for outs.
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Julio Rodriguez here. Looked at his pre-draft scouting video again. Right around 89 every pitch, with only one 90 and some breaking balls, but what took for a fastball was at 89, so the claims he doesn’t get that much velocity are suspect and with a couple of years of training it should be moreso now. Also good frame and whip and looks , and good results in the brief time from graduation from Extended Spring Training, which was likely just to solidify the fundamentals for such a young pitcher. Still should be pitchers for the next few spots. Hold the position players for a few more spots.
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I also looked at some video on J-Rod and while he has some projectability he is not top 10. 89-90 for a kid his age is no big deal. Will he add velocity as he fills out….probably but its not likely he’ll be throwing 95+ one day. You are born with that kind of Velocity its not something that is learned.
What I can’t tell from the video is how much life his FB has in the zone. We’ll soon see. Yes he can learn better mechancis and sharpen his command. Yes he is young and should be mentioned in the discussion but I have to question him being worthy of a top 10 spot.
As a side note as we are waiting for the #9 results for those of you who like Galvis. I got to see a lot of Nomar when he was in Trenton in the mid 90’s. A slick fielder who never hit better than .260 something turned into to a pretty good offensive player at the big league level.
Settle down I’m not saying Galvis is the next coming of Nomar but it could click enough for him one day to turn into a decent hitting pro.
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Something turned on in the 90s for a lot of players. Sammy Sosa, Brady Anderson, Jeff Bagwell. There were a lot of average Minor League players who suddenly became great major league players in the 90’s. That ‘light’ doesn’t come on as easy now.
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“I also looked at some video on J-Rod and while he has some projectability he is not top 10. 89-90 for a kid his age is no big deal. Will he add velocity as he fills out….probably but its not likely he’ll be throwing 95+ one day. You are born with that kind of Velocity its not something that is learned.”
Agreed that 89-90 is not a big deal for a right-handed pitcher. However, many young players, particularly those who are growing or may fill out, do gain velocity into their early to mid-20s, including those pitchers who work themselves into better shape. If you think Roger Clemens or Stephen Strasburg were throwing in the high 90s in high school, think again – it ain’t so.
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Agree that 89-90 from a young pitcher is not a big deal but Rodriguez can certain push that number up to 93-94 with some improved mechanics, physical maturity, and conditioning.
At Catch stated, there aren’t many high-schoolers who come out throwing 95.
That being said, I cannot rate Rodriguez in the top-10 UNTIL he actually shows that improved velocity.
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Mike, Jeff Bagwell hit .321 in the minor leagues and had a normal career trajectory. There’s no evidence of him using steroids and its probably not fair to lump him in with those guys.
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Nomar juiced. Need to get Galvis some PED’s
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I wish Nomar Garciaparra was a good comp for Freddy Galvis, but I don’t see it. Nomar was a first round pick, #12 in the whole draft out of Georgia Tech. After signing his first contract 3 days before turning 21 he went to high A ball (Florida State League). There he hit .295 with a .775 OPS in the 28 games remaining of his first pro partial season making him the #22 prospect in all of minor league baseball according to Baseball America entering the 1995 year he spent in Trenton that you remember. At Trenton he hit “only” .267 with a .722 OPS, dropping him 14 slots to the #36 best prospect. Now Galvis still has youth on his side as he didn’t even turn 21 until last month, but his career high full season OPS was only .588 and it was .587 in his 63 games in the FSL at age 19. Also, his defensive statistics (Fld%, RF/G and Rtz) have all been better than Nomar’s were, even at younger ages.
J-Rod was signed 3 seasons ago as a 17-year-old, so his pre-draft scouting video is out-dated and it sounds like he’s picked up a mph per season putting him at 91-92 instead of 89-90 today. He just turned 20 in the end of August. Yes his 7.2 K/9 is just half his Lakewood rate of 14.4, but it is still good. His walk rate is good and his hit rate and ERA are both outstanding. Those 45 innings against much older adults in P.R. follow 90.1 innings in Williamsport and Lakewood. 60% of his season was in Lakewood where he was dominant. So far, in the summer and winter playing against older competition everywhere, he has 155 K in 135.1 IP with an ERA of 1.93!
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Interesting scouting report from “bleacher report” writer Casey Schermick, though he seems to be nothing more then a gatherer of information (not providing anything useful from his own view)…
“Ramirez was acquired in the very controversial Cliff Lee trade at the end of the 2009 season. However he has quickly become one of the top prospects in the farm system.
Ramirez has a very live fastball that tops out around 96 MPH. He also features a slider which has great movement, but he needs to work on control in order to be effective with it. Ramirez is working with coaches to develop a change-up as a third pitch in order to make him effective in the future.
The Phillies would like to see him as a starting pitcher, but Ramirez still has a lot of work to go in order to prove he is a strong starter. Ramirez could easily become a part of the bullpen before he becomes a starter.”
Specifically thought the development of a change-up was interesting here… if he wants to stick as a starter, it’s pretty much mandatory, we all know how the phillies management loves the change…
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Allan, with all due respect, I think you are missing something very important when reviewing Bagwell’s minor league stats. In two full seasons as a college drafted, minor leaguer, Bagwell averaged three (3) HRs and (3) stolen bases per year. Then suddenly went to the major leagues and began hitting 40 HRs. IMO, that dramatic difference is more damning than anything Brady Anderson or Sammy Sosa did.
But hey, if Bagwell could become a 40 HR guy, then I guess Galvis can.
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Sorry I broke one of my owns rules. I made it seem like I was stating fact that J-Rod would not one day throw 95+. That is only conjecture at this point by me. While few may come out of H.S throwing that hard I contend the arm is there. Strasburg was fat and lazy in H.S. so he is an anomaly. Hard throwers throw hard in HS relative to their piers by age 20-21 you would start to see if its there or not.
From what I can tell J-Rod looks to be in pretty good athletic shape and I’ll grant he has room to fill out and add velocity. But again velocity is not the end all be all. Had he put up those periphials with a 95+ mph FB I’d be more than agreeable to putting him in the top 10.
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Mike, we’re not talking about a punch and judy hitter becoming a HR hitter. Bagwell was a doubles hitter who developed home run power. As far as guys suddenly developing power, George Brett, Robin Yount, Roberto Clemente, Joe Morgan, Rickey Henderson are a few guys who went from single digit to double digit HR totals. Its not terribly uncommon.
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And btw, as horrible as that list was… did anyone take a look at the kid who wrote it? He looks like he’s still in grade school… LOL… hard to believe philly.com can’t get a better writer… Anyone interested in taking over? I’m sure most of us could do a better job.
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And i’m going to pipe in on the bagwell discussion… going from single to double digits is dramatically different then going from single digits in the minors to 40! Odds bagwell was juicing…. 90%
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On increased velocity – Strasburg may have been fat and lazy, but Clemens was not – he was throwing in the mid 80s in high school.
On Bagwell . . . geez, he was one of my favorite non-Phillies players ever, but I have to admit that his statistics really do look like those of a user. He didn’t just develop power, he went from being a doubles hitter to being one of the all-time great power hitters at first base. And it all happened over the course of a few years and is more than notable that other players who started their careers in Houston underwentsimilar physical and statistical transformations (Caminiti, Gonzalez, Finley). I hope I’m wrong, but I have to view Bagwell with more than a little suspicion.
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Gary Templeton got to more balls than conception or bowa< I am almost sixty and work at the vet, you really dont have a good argument templeton wasn't the great shortstop you make him out to be, and the argument he got ot more balls is a joke. and the hitting, he hit 4 points more than conception did, and didnt hold a glove to him defensively, Templeton was a nice offensive player,but dont make him more than he was, I saw a lot of great shortstops in those days ,understand you point about his offense,in those days,but that to me is because we here in philly had the amaro,bowa, wine, vockavick glove men who struggled to hit,
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I don’t want to get into a protracted off-topic debate. Let me just say that suspicion or “looks like a user” is not a threshold of guilt I feel comfortable using.
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Catch:
Don’t we now say Clemens was enhanced a bit beyond a normal work out routine?
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In all fairness, “Bleacher Report” isn’t even a source that should be quoted…. It’s pretty much just a site where any fan can create “articles” about the teams they follow; basically making it an open source blog.
99% of the content is pretty much uninformed speculation and opinions.
This looks like it’s just an article posted by some kid who goes to Reading Phillies games and has never heard of people below AA.
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@supra. Exactly. If Bagwell was a 20 HR guy in the minors, 40 in the majors wouldn’t be so startling. He went from a 165 pound 21 year old singles hitter, to a 25 year old hitting 40 HRs. That is not comparable to any player I can recall.
If the Red Sox thought he had even HALF that ability in the minors, they wouldn’t have traded him to Houston for a 40 year old middle reliever.
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@Dennis H – Thanks for mentioning that about Bleacher Report. It really is not a credible source of anything.
There are good blogs out there (such as this one) who take time to research their information. By and large, Bleacher Report is not one of tose sources.
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I saw JRod pitch at Lakewood last season on multiple occasions. Unless the scoreboard gun is off, he consistently threw in the low 90’s and touched 94.
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I’m not shy of being non-PC: In general, during an era where steroid use is common, anyone with crazy-dramatic power spikes is suspect. When you have a guy whose weight and muscle profile (with neck and bicep muscles being more obvious changes) increase in proportion to his stats, that is more obvious. You can take PC and innocent till proven guilty too far. Forums are not courts of law and this is a media, athletic, and social problem in society, with plenty of reports and testimonies documenting rampant use. Stating the obvious–in general–if fine by me.
That said, there is a phenomenon of power being the last thing that comes, only when a big league hitter becomes comfortable with pitchers. Then there are guys that just get more serious lifting. Confusing those factors and steroid use is possible, so you have to be careful with your statements. But saying someone is suspicious is fine by me. It’s just a discussion. I will agree that sometimes in life derogatory statements like that, even conditional ones, can carry over to other areas, where a commenter makes gross generalizations about things I would object to. But in the area of steroid use, a balanced statements seems warranted.
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Yeah, I thought Bleacher Reports was pretty obviously the Philly.com’s way of letting the casual fan play. A non-issue.
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J DeF – I think he is the 8th inning guy in 2012.
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“Catch:
Don’t we now say Clemens was enhanced a bit beyond a normal work out routine?”
Yes, but I’ve never heard anything about the 21 year-old Clemens being juiced and that’s what we’re talking about – pitchers gaining velocity after high school.
But he’s just one of many examples of pitchers gaining velocity between high school and, say, the age of 25 or so. It happens quite frequently.
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Gary Templeton got to more balls than conception or bowa< I am almost sixty and work at the vet, you really dont have a good argument templeton wasn't the great shortstop you make him out to be, and the argument he got ot more balls is a joke.
Unless I missed a posting ..no one said Templeton was better than Conception or Bowa. I said that Templeton was better than an average defensive Shortstop…an he was. His range factor was right up there with Bowa and Conception for Gary's first seven seasons or so. Did his defense dropped off considerably after that? Yes…but from the mid 70's to 1982/83 Templeton was one of the top defensive shortstops. Not the best but in the top 5 or so.
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JIM i was referring to mike 77 saying templeton was above all because of his bat in the seventies, I believe that statement is not true.
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PUT KELLY DUGAN ON THE BALLOT!
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I just hope the Phillies are able to draft more guys at 2nd, 3rd, and SS soon…hopefully in the next draft. Even if your really high on Galvis as Jimmy’s replacement, it’s still really foolish to put all your eggs in one basket, or in this case to put all your faith in one prospect.
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Recent Julio Rodrigez Scouting report.
http://scoutingthesally.com/?p=2448
In the one game his FB was consistently in the low 90s.
The 14.4K rate at Lakewood, where he was quite young is just amazing.
I will likely be voting for him in the next 2-3 picks, I have not decided on my next person but he is in the mix.
I would not be surprised if he was our top pitching prospect after next year.
Based on facing tough winter league competition, he may just start at Clearwater and give us an even better estimate on what he has.
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You guys have alot of good info, Keeping up with minor league players on a daily basis is new to me. Being a former HS and College player I never stopped following the game on TV . Being on the east coast last year allowed me to follow some of the minor league teams for a month. I really enjoyed Lakewood, The outfield was very tallented with James in CF, Dabbs in RF, and Castro in LF. James covered alot of ground and very athletic. Dabbs played RF like a CF with a strong arm. Castro a tallented LF with a good arm. Loved James and Dabbs at the leadoff and 2 hole spot, both had speed not afraid to run or lay down bunts. I hope to see them next year somewhere . The first baseman Singleton was a stud. If not mistaken was batting in the 3 hole. Maybe they will all be together in Clearwater.
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Speaking of Bagwell, weren’t Pettite amd Clemens were both caught using steroids and weren’t they all on the same Astros team?
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Bagwell played with a bunch of suspected juicers. Mentioned before: Ken Caminiti, Finely and Gonzalez early. Then Clemens and Petitt late.
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Well, Bagwell was there a good while before either Pettitte or Clemens. If he juiced (debatable) then he did it independently of them. Though, it should be noted that he was teammates with Ken Caminiti when he first came up and during the period when Caminiti was a massive juicer (considering it basically killed him in the end sadly). The problem is that its impossible to say who was juicing and who wasn’t so its tough to just smear anyone like that without real evidence.
Back on topic (as this isn’t the time/place for it), I saw Dabbs live a couple times myself (when he was a Crosscutter) and liked him. He’s not a “prospect” per se as he’s 23 (he’ll be 24 in Clearwater) but he’s a solid outfielder. Good fundamentals and a nice swing.
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Is it just me or is a full time relief pitcher getting way too many votes at the 9 spot for a top prospect list? Even Aumont is more valuable than DeFratus since Aumont still starts. I, personally, am alittle confused by this vote total. My top 10 rounded out 9. James 10. Gillies
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Santana. He has the potential to be a power-hitting outfielder, and he can’t even buy a beer. He could also amount to nothing, but I think he has the highest ceiling of anybody on this list. Don’t understand why anyone would vote for Aumont at this time. I’m not saying he’s not a prospect, but he easily had the worst season of anyone on the list. He doesn’t have injury to blame like Gillies. Still hope Aumont pulls it together, he has the stuff.
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I don’t have Aumont very high myself, but I can see some of the thoughts and wonder if part of his problems were made by the Phils.
He did very well in international competition vs higher level competition both prior and after his time pitching for the Phils’s this year, including dominating Cuba.
Did the Cliff Lee Trade pressure him too much? Was the issue how the Phils were trying to adjust his mechanics?
I don’t know, but clearly he can pitch.
That being said, I have not even given his name a thought for any of the spots yet.
I even have him behind JC Ramirez
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I don’t have Amount higher than maybe 14 myself. My point is that i value DeFratus even less than Aumont yet DeFratus is actually competing for the 9 spot right now. I have James, Gillies, Altherr, Jrod, Ramirez, Aumont, and probably Pettibone over DeFratus right now. I am really just trying to understand all the DeFratus votes
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Yes, #9 is too high for DeFratus, but not ridiculously high. Everyone has their own reasoning and DeFratus has the least identifiable holes in his game. Statistically, relievers always look better than starters because the holes in the relievers game don’t get exposed. Also, the reliever’s “stuff plays up” because of the short stints.
I wouldn’t vote him into the top 10, just because I believe at least 2 of the starters being voted behind him, might be able to do the same things he is doing.
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Also, the fact that the organization made DeFratus a reliever so early makes me think they believe he has less value(or talent) than some of the guys they have kept as starters.
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The sad thing is that it’s pretty much impossible to elect anyone from the steroid era, without having the slightest bit of concern that they may have juiced. Even guys like Griffey who are constantly thought to have always been clean can’t be proven so, simply due to the era that they played in.
So the choices are pretty much either to elect players who you feel belong in the hall regardless of possible steroid use, to pick players with the least amount of speculation about them(with the understanding that it’s possible they could later found out to be users), or to simply ignore the steroid era all-together. Basically guys who are all power numbers and nothing else like Mark Maguire etc. shouldn’t be elected period, but then you have guys like Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds who would have been likely HoF guys WITHOUT ever touching the roids. The whole situation is a mess, and I don’t know if it will ever be sorted out to most peoples satisfaction.
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How good is the competition in the mexican league. Is it like high a or double A. wondering what we can take from valle performance there?
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For those who are suffering the high ranking of De Fratus who has the potential to be the Phillies closer one day I would like to explain myself. I have followed this site and enjoyed it for sometime. I decided to contribute to it this year. We are all anonymous so I have no idea if I am reading inputs of professional scouts or people like me who are having fun. I am trying to understand how these rankings are done and there seems to be different opinions about how to do this. There seems to be an unwritten rule about ranking relievers. It may be written for all I know. I do know that the Phillies pay a lot of money to Brad Lidge, more than for Cole Hamels, who is generally recognized as an “ace” pitcher, but less than more established “aces”. I, in fact rated De Fratus that way (lower than their potential “ace” starters, but higher than others for whom I have great expectations like Pettibone and Shreve, simply because De Fratus looks like he can be a Lidge someday). I respect the fact that some have been doing this longer than I have and have books and stats and colleagues they consult. I really enjoy this knowledge and learn from it. That is why I respectfully push back a little and ask about the nuance of value expressed by what major league clubs pay their employees. Does this explain ade quately of my ranking of De Fratus? As I learn more of the fundamentals I will probably vote differently, but this is how I voted now.
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Puddinhead, a closer like Lidge is considered extremely valuable. The problem is that even most elite relief talents don’t reach that level. The ranks of relievers are littered with flameouts like Joel Zumaya. Its a minefield to navigate. I can see ranking an elite reliever high or a very good reliever in a bad organization, but with DeFratus I think the Phillies have plenty of other high end prospects to consider.
Mikemike, looking over the Mexican Winter League there are a lot of AAA veterans there. Yurendell DeCaster, Justin Christian, Barbaro Canizares, Erubiel Durazo, even our old friend Chris Roberson. I’d say the talent level is probably somewhere between AA and AAA. It explains Valle’s power but lack of plate discipline. He’s facing good pitchers. Remember though its a hitters league.
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Not sure why we are talking so much about steroids, but since you are doing so, you are missing some obvious points. Steroids were present in “pockets” in MLB until going widespread. When you look at the guys we know for sure were users, you expand within those clubhouses to see who they shared with. Obviously, most of the Canseco tree has played itself out, but no one really talks about the Caminitti effect.
Anyone with any sense at all can see that 1 year after retiring, Bagwell was back to the 105 pound guy he was before the juice. Oh yeah, his bad shoulder prevented him from heavy lifting… It was the bad shoulder that prevented him from stabbing himself in the backside with syringes, that led to his deflation.
Getting back on point, the Phils have evaluated the game at this point for what it is and will be without steroids; pitching, defense and speed. The minor leagues are chock full of relievers, good defensive players, speed and starting pitching. Rightfully so, the starting pitching is young and will have time to develop while we watch the big club studs age gracefully. The key will be holding on to the guys who project to have power down the line, Singleton and Brown. Then plugging them in when the opportunity comes.
The big club will need relievers beginning this year and most definitely next year. It would be nice to see DeFratus, Aumont, Stutes, Schwim, Ramirez, etc work their way into a Madson role for 2012, with him replacing Lidge as the closer.
Figure after 2012 at least, the big club will need a starting pitcher to replace Oswalt. At that point, you could choose from May, Cosart, Colvin, etc. The nice thing is that you can actually work a starter in as the number 4 or 5 with three studs at the top of the rotation. In the past, you brought a Hamels up and he was anointed a top of the rotation guy out of necessity.
It is imperative to see Gillies, Martinez, Brown, and maybe a Galvis make big strides this year. I for one don’t see JRoll getting a big new contract. We will be forced to replace Ibanez, obviously Werth, and Polanco in the next two years. It would seem that the Phils will need to strike a deal to acquire young talent at 3b and a corner outfield position. I believe we will see something come back this offseason that could help us at one of those positions in the near future. We still have Blanton out there to deal, maybe with a young player to bring back some help. There was a lot of talk about Quentin early on, just like there was on Lee, so maybe something can still happen there??
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I don’t believe that DeFratus is over valued at 9—look at it this way—-who would bring more value in a trade right now. DeFratus or Shreve ? DeFratus or Pettibone?
ect.
While this is not an absolute way to value it certainly can be a justifiable factor. DeFratus has the ability to help most major league teams right now.
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We should close the book on this one and move on to 10. Or just put De Fratus at 10 and move on to 11 haha.
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Though I really don’t like the thought of a reliever in the top 10…
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I don’t think DeFratus would net any more in trade than Rodriguez, Ramirez, Aumont or Pettibone.
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I am not completely opposed to seeing a reliever in the Top 10 prospects, but he would have to be something pretty darn special in my opinion. Honestly I am not completely sure how I feel about DeFratus just yet, but he certainly has a chance to be something special if he keeps putting up these numbers. Still not sure if i’d rank him Top 10, but Top 15 almost certainly.
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I think this thread will impact the voting in future voting. I know its slightly changed my perspective on a few guys.
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Why is Gillies spelled wrong in the voting options?
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On “relievers”:
They are really divided into a few sub-groups, such as the longer innings guys, the mid-length guys, the set-up guys, and the closers.
In today’s game, the longer guys come in the game when the starting pitcher blows up early (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th inning entry) and is to carry the team for 3 to 5 innings ; the mid-length guy comes in for the 5th and 6th and 7th inning ; the set-up guy comes appears in the 8th inning only; closer for the 9th.
That SEEMS to be how teams look at their pen…certainly this one.
One consistent closer abetted by one of the set-up guys on occasion; two set-up guys for the 8th inning; and the rest of the closers to be available to fill special situations as well as handle the early and middle innings.
IMO, their respective values are on a downward plane from the closer and back through the prior innings. So, a closer is the most valuable, the set-up guys next in value, etc.
That valuation process will aid in whether to consider a strong potential closer has any right to be considered among a team’s top 10 prospects. Thus, DeFratus.
There is a reason that good closers demand and get Big Buck$ in free agency, as up and down they sometimes are: they maintain a team’s lead to a win instead of “giving away” his team’s hard-earned lead…which can be one of the most disheartening results otherwise.
So, in considering whether ANY superior-seeming prospect closer should rate well despite that he not a starting pitcher, I suggest that guys like that are very valuable…sometimes even more that a mid-rotation starter. And, that “reliever” tag is really a misnomer for these guys. “Closer” is a whole separate category…and of considerably more value than “just a ‘reliever’. ”
DeFratus here.
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Perhaps James was thinking of our Team Chairman/part owner.
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Very few Relievers or Closers are truly what I would consider ‘elite’ since many supposedly proven Closers have good years followed by bad years etc., and only the Closers which show any consistency are worthy of being considered elite.
Brad Lidge is a great example of just the kinds of highs and lows that many Closers go through in their career, and i’m not just referring to his injured 2009 season either.
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Who would you pick for your Organization.
Santana. Gilles. DeFratus.
That’s my order.
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A question: how many MLB teams have won the World Series WITHOUT a superior closer over the last 10-20 years?
Just askin’
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There have been teams win without a superior closer but for the most part, even those teams had a marginal guy have an exceptional season. (WhiteSox in 2005, Cardinals in 2006)
However, if the point being made is that DeFratus becomes more valuable as a prospect that comes with a big assumption that he will/can be a ML closer. I don’t think that is a given which is why DeFratus falls into the 10-15 range.
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How do we really know how DeFratus will do in the Majors anyway? He may not even cut it in some other bullpen role, let alone a Closer… and we won’t have a complete picture of just what he can do until he starts facing more Big League hitters.
On average, I think Bullpen prospects are more risky than Starting pitching prospects…since relief pitching seems to see a lot more variables involved.
DeFratus LOOKS like he could be a great big league closer, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to end up as one.
Of course it’s true that all prospects are risky, I think Bullpen prospects are quite possibly the riskiest ones to accurately project of them all.
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Great comments on value of closers. I appreciate the variety and quality of opinions on this site.
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This really is one of the more interesting and productive discussions that I can remember on the site. I don’t think prospects that are closers are any more or less of a sure than than any other class of prospects. I do know, however, that a classic closer (somebody who throws in excess of 95 MPH), is pretty easy to spot, requires fewer pitches to be dominant, and often has a much shorter developmental time. Not a lot of great starting pitchers go from the minors and become dominant in a year or two – but for relief pitchers it happens all the time, in fact, it is not uncommon for a guy to come in during the middle or end of the season and assume the closer role the way K-Rod did in the early 2000s. This is a very long way of saying that, if DeFratus has the type of stuff we are told he has, he could work his way to the back of the bullpen (either as a set-up guy or as a closer) extremely quickly and save the team an awful lot of money. As a result, I have very little problem putting him at number 10 on the current list (I have Gillies at 9). Yes, your run of the mill reliever is not that valuable – but your potential closer, on the other hand, has quite a bit of value in my view.
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Agree with 3up and others. The issue isn’t really about the relative value of a closer. Its how likely DeFratus is to reach that level. DeFratus hasn’t pitched at AAA yet, he’s not like Vance Worley who had a small measure of MLB success. DeFratus isn’t a sure thing.
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There are two problems I see in the logic being applied to this DeFratus #9 discussion. The 1st is that minor league relievers automatically assume the same role in the major leagues that they have in the minor leagues. That doesn’t happen. The best case scenario for DeFratus in the next 2 years is, he gets some innings in CDurbin role. He isn’t going to be the Phillies closer. Jared Cosart has a better chance at being the Phillies closer in 2013 than DeFratus.
The 2nd part that gets ignored is relievers should be held to a different standard than starters. Just as SS and Catchers have different statistical standards than other hitters, Starters have different standards for ERA, K/9 and WHIP than Relievers. It is a lesser position, especially in the minor leagues.
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I voted De Fratus even though I feel a RP can be a dime a dozen. However, the way he pitched in the Fall League, and if the reports on him are accurate, then at worst he becomes is a ryan madson. In my book that is pretty good. I Look at him as the closer Madson has problems becoming. Might be wrong but that is how I see it. Also PP had De Fratus at 15 and the readers had him at 14 last year . While some other prospects didn’t come through he did…loud and clear. So a jump to 9 is not that surprising. Happy New to you all
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All that needs to be said about closers. And RAJ has the prospects to get it done.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=28688
I am not as excited about DeFratus as I was about Worley but he will see
mlb action soon.
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I really believe its almost impossible to project who can be a closer. they are a rare breed. Look at Madson terrific stuff but it seems in tight ninth inning he just cant’ get it done. AND most of them cant
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DO IT CONSISTANLY. THATS WHAT MAKES A GREAT CLOSER TO ME BEING CONSISTENT . Rivera is unreal in my opinion
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As great as Soria may be, RAJ would have to be INSANE to sell the farm for him. We need some of those players in our farm system to develop, and how will that be accomplished if they all get traded away?
We can’t just keep emptying the farm system over and over, since that’s a surefire way to usher back the Phillies dark days of the past.
Now i’m obviously not completely against ALL trades if they can be done without trading away all our key prospects. The Roy Oswalt trade was a perfect example of a trade done right for us, since we only traded away 2 prospects who weren’t even in our top 5 and a Major League pitcher.
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A method used in business analysis for choosing from among a number of possible outcomes can be used for ranking prospects. You put a numerical value on each outcome, and you also assign a probability (a number between 0 and 1) to each outcome, meaning the probability that each outcome will occur.
Using pitchers as an example, a No. 1 starter is assigned the highest numerical value; next would be the No. 2 starter; and last could be the 8th inning reliever. Cosart, Colvin, May, Biddle, Worley, De Fratus, etc. could all be assigned values based on their projected ceilings.
The next step is to assign a probability that a pitcher will reach his ceiling. The probability is a number between 0 and 1 that can be assigned at each stage of development. A guy like Biddle may be projected to have a probability of .5 that he maintains his ceiling when he reaches low A; a probability of .5 that he maintains his ceiling when he reaches high A; a probability of .25 that he maintains his ceiling when he reaches AA; a probability of .75 that he maintains his ceiling when he reaches AAA; and a probability of .25 that he reaches his ceiling once he reaches the majors. These probabilities are multiplied together to project an overall probability of about 1% (= .5*.5*.25*.75*.25) that Biddle reaches his ceiling.
Assuming Biddle’s ceiling is that of a No. 2 starter, which has a value of B, Biddle’s score would be 1%*B or .01B.
Let’s say that De Fratus’ ceiling is that of a closer, which has a value of E (a much lower number than the value of a No. 2 starter). Assuming De Fratus returns to AA in 2011 and that there is a .5 probability that he maintains his ceiling in AA; a .75 probability that he maintains his ceiling in AAA; and a .1 probability that he reaches his ceiling as a closer in the majors. The overall probability of De Fratus’ becoming a closer in the majors is about 4% (= .5*.75*.1).
De Fratus’ overall score is 4%*E or .04E. De Fratus’ overall score would be compared to that of Biddle to determine who is the better prospect under this scoring system.
Obviously, the probabilities I assigned were arbitrary. The important point is that there are useful methodologies available for comparing high ceiling guys who are in the low minors with low ceiling guys who are at the threshold of the majors.
Since projecting prospects is not a science, we can’t get too carried away with the quantitative approach. A scoring system just provides one set of data. Additional input from the scouts and other talent evaluators is necessary before you can reach conclusions about prospects. Even then, there will be many misses.
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who the f is gilles
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DeFratus–a healthy arm above A-ball that can throw in the high 90s has a lot of value.
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Happy New Year which makes it one day closer to “pitchers and catchers”
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Well just to throw my 2 cents in to derekcarstairs, Starting pitchers not only carry the value of their spot as a starter but they carry the value of releiver also since alot of good bullpen arms were originally starters. For example, Madson. Who was more valuable in AAA, Madson when he was younger or DeFratus. Madson by alot since he still started. Therefore, TOTALLY MY SUBJECTIVE OPINION, DeFratus does not carry enough value to be higher than 14. The real value for DeFratus is proximity to the show, but i will take younger toolsy players with high upside or young starters any day of the week.
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But if say a De Fratus becomes a top closer, does that change anything?
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I think Matt Riz should be added to the Poll Soon.
I don’t see him as ever making it with the Phils since he is blocked at his one position, but the light clicked with his hitting last year and was showing very good power until the wrist injury.
If he picks up where he left off last year prior to the injury in regards to power, he will be a very hot prospect and will be used as a major chip to significantly improve our team later this year.
I would vote for him well before some of the toolsy folks who have done little against low level competition.
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“But if say a De Fratus becomes a top closer, does that change anything?”
Absolutely. He would then be ineligible for a Prospect list!
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I definitely agree that Rizz should probably be in the top 15 prospects, due largely to the fact he’s already in AAA and has been hitting really well overall. He may never be a starting 1st Baseman in the Majors, but he could have a lot of value as a great bat off the bench…hopefully with the Phillies!
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I love all this discussion about the value of relievers and of De Fratus in particular. I think that the #1, #2, #3, #4 relievers (closer, 8th & 7th inning setup guys) on a typical big leave staff have similar relative values to the #2, #3, #4, #5 starters, respectively. Another reason I value starters more as prospects because it is much more common for a starter to convert and to excel as a reliever than vice versa. Also, they pitch more innings so they can develop faster. Their stats are based on larger sample sizes so are more predictive. But good minor league relievers can still be good prospects. Last year in this voting, Mathieson and Bastardo, two pure relievers at the time won the #10 and #11 spots. I’m not arguing for or against them now, but I ask why have they not even been discussed yet this year? By PhuturePhillies rules they are eligible (“No more than 130AB or 50 IP” https://phuturephillies.com/2008/11/24/reader-top-30-1/#comments). Those 2 were #8 and #14 on the Reading Eagle top 20 prospect poll that interestingly enough excluded Domonic Brown because of his projected MLB time.
I introduced De Fratus into the voting as a write-in “Other” last year at #10. He was #9 on my own list last year and is #10 on my list this year. I considered him as high as #8 this year, but Biddle and Julio Rodriguez edge him out because they are still starters. Last season I liked De Fratus partly because I still thought he could be a starter. This season he loses that reason, but gains in 3 areas, keeping him in my top 10. He has now proven he can close; he advanced 2 levels to AA ball; and he added to his amazingly consistent statistical resume.
One note to those who compare De Fratus to Lidge. Brad Lidge is perhaps the all time major league strikeout king per inning at 12.0 K/9IP. His major league career K/9 to BB/9 ratio is 12.0 to 4.1. Schwimer is the prospect who is most like Lidge, with a minor league career ratio of 12.3 to 3.1. In contrast, De Fratus has far fewer walks and strike outs, 8.3 to 1.8. Schwimer has to be considered very close to as good a prospect to De Fratus, Mathieson, and Bastardo and all 4 should be included in any discussions of relief prospects.
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My take on DeFratus:
To me, after your above avg closer and maybe two very good setup guys, middle or long relief pitchers have about as much value as a 5th OF without star or starter potential (Ross Gload?). They are role players and can be obtained relatively easily. A good setup guy who has shown some longevity has as much value as maybe a 4th or 5th guy in the rotation, sometimes a tad more (I would trade Kendrick or Worley for Madson and find a 5th starter as good somewhere else pretty easily). A star closer who has shown health and some consistency is worth a lot more, but seldom is worth as much as a top starter, of which we have 4. So that’s my general view of their value.
That said, a young, healthy pitcher–relief or starter–who gets almost everyone out almost all of the time has to be projected into one of the more valued roles, just as we might project Altherr or Santana to be an athletic, high-value player, if he makes it at all.
So DeFratus has both projection and proximity, and that is more than enough to justify top 10. He has consistently been dominant for multiple years, once converted to reliever, and has a good a chance as any [itcher coming trough our system to be a high-value reliever.
I would NOT just group him into the generic reliever category. He has earned more consideration than that. He is young. He is getting better. He has shown dominance up though minors into the high minors and AFL. He is healthy. He is confident and has a closer-type makeup, by all reports.
To me, he trumps guys who are at much lower levels who are largely projection and have not performed for any significant length of time yet.
I think you have to apply the no-relievers as top prospects rule with some circumspection.
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Well said, DD. Agreed. Proximity and projection in a position of significant value.
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‘… why (has Mathieson) not been discussed this year.’
Mathieson hasn’t been discussed because he is not a top prospect this year. He shouldn’t have been voted top 10 last year. For some reason the fan poll stubbornly continues to vote relievers into the top 10, even though, year after year, they don’t make a difference on the Major League team and no other team trades for these relievers. These relievers have little prospect value. Every team has guys like Mathieson.
For some reason other teams ask for a low A Villar(and the like), but the PP fans think AAA Mathieson(and the like) has more prospect value.
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The Price some Non-Closing relievers have gotten this year show how valueable they are.
A Player like De Fratus who can play an important role on a team is far more valueable than someone who is “toolsy” but has never shown anything.
While it’s nice having “Potential”, you might as well start ranking Pre-School Kids since they are long shots but still have even MORE potential. You really need to take into account the probability they will actually be productive major league players. Being drafted is nice, but most high ranking drafted players completely flop. Until they actually do something on a professsional field against quality minor league competition, they are not worth much.
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Mike77. I have always liked Mathieson a lot, but agree he is not top ten, probably not top 20.
However, would it surprise anyone if Mathieson either made the team out of ST (who knows how ST plays out till it happens) or come up for injuries, then get into 50 games, with ERA in the high 3’s or low 4’s (if not better), Ks more than 1/IP, takes on a decent and helpful load in the pen. I think that is a reasonable scenario, if it works out that he gets the opportunity. If that happens and he gets his foot firmly in the door, he could improve at the MLB level and become a decent setup guy eventually.
If you think of him that way (which by all indications a number of people here see him that way), he has to be in top 30, and I can see a supportable argument anywhere from high teens to high 20’s.
Mathieson seems like a solid late bloomer, slowed by injuries, who could make a nice bullpen stabilizer. Would love to see him come in with men on base to strike out or pop up a batter in the 6th or 7th inning multiple times this year.
Also, people talk about his straight FB and mediocre slider. Bill Wagner had a straight FB and a just passable slider and did pretty well. Not saying Scott is Billy, just that a lot can be done with great velocity, good command, and a tough mental approach, which Scott has shown.
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“The price some non-closing relievers have gotten this year show how valuable they are ”
Ugh. It has been explained and argued 20 different ways, but still some don’t get it. In simple terms: Minor league STARTERS become the valuable Major league relievers. Minor league, AA relievers, struggle to even make the major leagues.
DeFratus is no more of a sure thing than Jiwan James to make the major leagues, even if Defratus is the huge total of one(1) level ahead of him.
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Surprised at the lack of support for Rodriguez at this point. Obviously a lot depends on velo for him but I’ve seen it reported at over 91 in several locations. I really believe he will be top 5 before the year is over. The peripheral numbers he had at Lakewood this year were off the charts.
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mike77: “In simple terms: Minor league STARTERS become the valuable Major league relievers. Minor league, AA relievers, struggle to even make the major leagues.”
Can’t agree with your generalization. What you say is often true, maybe most often true, but not always true.
An example that fits your bill: Ryan Madson was a very good minor league starter with good stuff. He eventually became one of the league’s best non-closer relievers and has considerable value, which he will be rewarded for next year as a FA, if Phils don’t extend him. But the Phils kept him as a starter because their system was not great back then and they needed to develop every potential starter they could. He fits your category.
Today, their system’s strength is in young projectable starters, so they have had the luxury to handpick a few guys to groom into specialist roles. DeFratus, Rosenberg, Schwimer, Stutes, Escalona, Diekman, Ellis, and a few others are examples. Some of these (Diekman, Escalona) have mediocre stuff and also fit your category as not good enough to be starters. Others are being groomed because Phils are more proactively trying to develop higher-value relievers by putting them into closer and setup roles (Schwimer, DeFratus, Rosenberg before he got hurt). This guys have good stuff to start with and are probably more talented than many of the starters in our system. But Phils picked them because they might have some combination of 1) the potential for two standout pitches, 2) the ability to add velocity in shorter stints, and 3) a closer-type makeup. They are not your grandfather’s relievers and represent an effort to take a talented pitcher and create a reliever groomed for a high-leverage role. They have the luxury to do this because they have so many good young arms in the system and can afford to experiment with those who seem suited. DeFratus is an ongoing success at this in the minors. He can’t be said to be a probable flameout or mediocre in his roil simple because he is a reliever and all relievers are failed starters or something like that. He projects as a high value reliever because Phils took several guys to do that and seem successful with DeFratus, promising with Schimer, and maybe Rosenberg too if he comes back to 95+ velocity and his killer slider (or some second pitch, forget whether it’s a slider or changeup).
Phils are proactively developing high value relievers and that should be recognized in our lists when it progresses as planned and a guy is knocking at the door.
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Mike777,
Defratus finished at AA and had a WHIP of .89 and 10.x K/Rate
Jiwan James hit .270, little power, terrible SB rate, and overall just plain average at Lakewood, two levels lower.
He might start at Lakewood again or may be promoted.
Sure he has potential, but his stats need to drastically improve and he needs to do that while advancing against better and better players.
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Thanks for the great discussion Re: closers and other relievers, their value and shortcomings.
Considering the changing roles of players and particularly the pitching staffs and their uses….
Going back to the 40s and 50s, MLB had pitching starters who pitched every 4 days and and were expected to finish all 9 innings if they were to be judged as adequate or good. If they didn’t finish, they were unlikely to have more than one “reliever” to fill out the remaining outs.
One of the terrific relievers for the Phils was when they went to the ’50 World Series vs the Yankees. That year of terrific Phillies baseball was marred by the Russian closure around Berlin and our response was to cobble together an airlift to bring food/supplies to Berliners, and Curt Simmons, the Phils outstanding lefty pitcher (got a $60, 000 bonus to sign, WOW!) was in the Army Reserves and got called up in the emergency away from his then best season with about 2 to 2 1/2 months of the season to go. Simmons was 2nd in the rotation behind Robin Roberts.
In Simmons'[ place the Phils started own reliever/closer Jim Konstanty who had an unbelieveable reliever season winning 16 games and saving boatloads of others. I believe he won the Cy Young award that season.
Just mentioning that; relievers (closers) can and do play great roles and sometimes are counted as more valuable than starters. Robin Roberts (HOF) and Curt Simmons (terrific lefty) took a back seat to Konstaty as Cy Young that year.
Today the importance of relievers, particularly closers has been elevated to near equivalent value of starting pitchers, and pitchers are now being prepared for that role in their minor lg journey to the bigs, unlike the days when relief roles were assigned to guys who were declining from their starter days . The game, in that respect,has changed…..
Thus, the importance IMO of DeFratus.
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I always thought that even projected relievers before would start in lower levels to get in more inning, wonder how many of the great relief pitchers were projected to be starters in the majors???
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“… don’t agree with your generalization”.
DD, I don’t like to generalize. There are always exceptions. But I have not seen the proper argument of why DeFratus is the exception. Guys are just regurgitating the same tired proximity arguments, as if DeFratus is the 1st reliever to post decent numbunhitable AFL and 24 AA innings. The proper argument would be pitches that translate as a major league closer, such as an unhitable breaking ball to go along with a fastball with velocity and movement.
As far as my generalization:
Chad CDurbin – Starter until majors
Jose Contreras – Starter throughout career
Madson – Starter until majors
Bastardo- Starter until AAA
Brad Lidge- Starter until AAA
That is all of the valuable relievers from the major league team, and they all started until at least AAA.
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Sorry for the bad typo
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“DD, I don’t like to generalize. There are always exceptions. But I have not seen the proper argument of why DeFratus is the exception. Guys are just regurgitating the same tired proximity arguments, as if DeFratus is the 1st reliever to post decent numbunhitable AFL and 24 AA innings. The proper argument would be pitches that translate as a major league closer, such as an unhitable breaking ball to go along with a fastball with velocity and movement.”
Spot on. No one is really debating that a reliever is valuable. The issue is how likely DeFratus is to reach that level, and what is his ceiling. It is NOT that uncommon to see relievers in the minors who strike out a batter an inning. He’s not on the precipice, he pitched a third of a season at AA. So to label DeFratus among our top ten talents in the minors is frankly confusing to me. I have him about #15, I think that’s reasonable. Relievers just don’t make top tens unless a system is absolutely barren.
And what the heck does Jim Konstanty have to do with anything? He was 33 years old that year!
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IMHO
Rating DeFratus way to High. Let’s see him get out AAA Batters.
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too
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One of the changes in recent years, especially with Phillies, is drafting college pitchers with the intention of making them major league relievers. It’s not so much that in the past the Phillies groomed their major league relievers by having them work in the minors as starters up to AAA, but rather that they got their relievers from outside the organization. Of the Phillies relievers that Mike77 mentions, only Madson is a product of our farm who has also been a significant part of our major league bullpen and he got into the pen by flunking out as a starter. So the Phillies have really not intentionally groomed any of their significant major league relievers in their own system. The guys like Schwimer, DeFratus, Rosenberg are a conscious attempt to change that. It’s a whole new world view for them and overdue. A lot of treasure, draft picks, and talent have been expended to stock the team with vet relievers from other teams or free agency.
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Sir Alden,
Sure you want to see DeFratus get AAA hitters out, but the Move from AA to ML is quite common. The Same Argument can go for the “Hitters” who are not even doing above average against Low A pitchers.
But I will take a Relief Pitcher with a Sub 1 Whip and Greater than 1K inning over someone who has not excelled at a league 2 levels lower, even if he looks good while photographed in his Uniform.
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Thanks Alan, for getting my argument. It is so frustrating to think that so many minor league followers don’t get what I (and some others) are trying to say.
This argument reminds me of a political debate between Republicans and Democrats, where each side has a position and stubbornly sticks to their original position no matter what idea the other side presents.
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Well . . . cast me as an independent. I get all of the arguments and, heck, I may be wrong, but I think the reports on his (De Fratus’s) ability and demeanor combined with the way that he ran roughshod over the other Fall League talents are nudging me up higher than I normally would go for a projected back-of-the-bullpen reliever. I doubt I’ll rank any of our other relievers in the top 20. And, sure, I can understand the reluctance that some have to rank him in the top 10. But this is hardly a science.
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Gillies here. I think he has the biggest potential for moving up on our lists and I think he posts a strong season at AA. De Fratus for me at 10
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For those who beret others with their exclusive knowledge.
THE TOP THREE in the nl number of saves
Brian Wilson started only three games and that in his first year
Heath Bell started only two games in the minors
Francisco Cordero started eight games after his first year
also
Joakim Soria started 5 games for Mexico city
Oh hell I am getting tired so I’ll stop there.
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I voted for Gillies here, but don’t quite get the arguments disparaging De Fratus for not being on the brink of the major leagues, because he only has 24 AA IP and his AFL success behind him. That would be a stronger argument if Biddle hadn’t already made the list based upon a total professional resume of 44 IP in rookie leagues. He has a lot of Ks, but a WHIP of 1.39 and an ERA of almost 4.00. How does that not exactly blows away the competition in 44 IP of rookie ball merit relatively high top 10 placement, whereas the excellent season turned in by De Fratus is viewed as laughable at #9. If nothing else, DeFratus has survived the wear and tear of moving through quite a few levels that Biddle has to successfully negotiate without falling victim to injury or his stuff proving inadequate against AA hitters. Not including the AFL, DeFratus turned in 65 very solid IP this season and definitely is a possibility for the Philadelphia Phillies bullpen in 2011.
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Allentown, what it comes down to is that creating a top prospects list isn’t always a matter of scouting performance. A great deal of projection is involved, taking a look at a raw product and trying to determine his likely future. That’s where the disconnect on guys like Biddle and Jiwan James comes from. IMO, any idiot can look at a AAA player and figure out if he’s any good. But the team/scout that can look at the low A player and properly gauge his future is the team who will usually enjoy future success.
Let me give a quick example. Let’s say you created a top prospect list in 1998 for the Phillies. BA chose Ryan Brannan, a reliever as the team’s best prospect. Meanwhile in the organization the Phils had an 18/19 year old toolsy SS who just completed low A. Which is the best list, the one who had Brannan listed or the one who foresaw Jimmy Rollins? The list that sees that unproven prospect coming is the best one, IMO.
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Sorry make that “berate” not a silly hat.
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@Allentown. I don’t mean to disparage DeFratus. He did have a nice season. I actually don’t have as much problem with DeFratus being voted into the top 10 as I have with the reasoning behind the votes. This proximity nonsense, doesn’t make the better prospect. If that was the case, Vance Worley would be considered a better prospect than Bryce Harper. If the argument was based on superior, closer quality pitches, combined with the control he has shown, then that would be a sound argument. I may be ignorant of some of his scouting reports, but I have never heard his ‘stuff’ described as electric or un-hitable. Those are the descriptions usually associated with a closer.
To argue that a 23 year old reliever (DeFratus) in AA, should be rated higher than a 22 year old switch hitting CF (Jiwan James) in High A, because of proximimity, is shortsighted, IMHO… with all of that, I had DeFratus in my top 13 before this thread. Others have persuaded me to rethink Rodriguez.
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I guess that I just don’t understand. projecting prospects. To me de fratus is more sure than say colvin, but the relief pitcher argument is fun . I mean who is more valuable a joe blanton or a ryan madson or lidge>
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Depends on which Lidge you are talking about. That is why I want him gone.
Blanton or Madson will keep you up at night. If Madson could close,he would be great. But to this point questionable.
That seems to be a theme this year: which Rollins, which Lidge. which Utley, even which Polanco. Is there a “HOUSE” in the house.
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I think the De Fratus argument is two-fold.
There is the obvious Reliever vs Starter/Position Player but also
Higher Lvl vs Lower Lvl Minor League Argument.
I’m in the middle on those two arguments, he gets downgraded for being a reliever but gets bumped up for succeeding against AA competition vs the others who have only faced lower A ball or below.
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Let’s move on to # 10 already!!!!
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mike77″ I actually don’t have as much problem with DeFratus being voted into the top 10 as I have with the reasoning behind the votes. This proximity nonsense, doesn’t make the better prospect. If that was the case, Vance Worley would be considered a better prospect than Bryce Harper.”
To me, proximity means a consistent, successful progression through enough levels to be almost ML ready. I don’t see why this wouldn’t be a fair argument. At what point does a prospect’s accomplishments factor into the big picture? I would think that more weight would be given to the guy who’s shown he can do well as opposed to one who you think might do well.
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Sickels top 20: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/1/2/1908325/philadelphia-phillies-top-20-prospects-for-2011#storyjump
Let’s move on to #10!!
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‘What is wrong with the proximity argument?’
1. I believe in this case, DeFratus’ proximity to being a major league closer is not nearly as close as some guys are making it seem. The guy only pitched 24 innings as a reliever at AA. He will most likely start in AA again this year. That puts him 1 level above some of the prospects that BA says are better.
2. In this case you have a pitcher who is a minor league reliever, who was not drafted for the express purpose of fast tracking. The guy is not Chapman or Price or even Heath Miller. He is not going straight into a role like closer or setup for at least 3 seasons(assuming he even has the stuff to be placed in those roles).
3. Proximity to what? Proximity to being in the major leagues or being a major league difference maker? I could use proximity to argue Harold Garcia is a better prospect than DeFratus. Garcia has performed at every level consistantly. He is closer, but closer to being what?
I have no doubt DeFratus will make the major leagues, but I am not convinced he will be a back end reliever. With a realistic timetable assigned to him, it is very possible Cosart, May, or even Aumont get the backend roles before he gets them.
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I understand about projection, but ranking based upon the highest projection really needs to be tempered. Every teams’ draft class is loaded with guys who are at least toolsy and projectible, many with actually demonstrated skills and performance along with the projectibility. Of course we shouldn’t fall in love with the 23-year old rookie baller with the great curve or breaking ball and 87 mph FB who puts up electric stats against much younger players. Still, Sickels is correct in the linked article above that history does show that the vast majority of toolsy position players become Hewitt rather than Brown. History also says that there is a tremendous physical injury winnowing out of projectible pitchers from the low A and rookie levels. That is why a less sparkly pitcher like DeFratus or Schwimer, or Worley gets extra points for having survived intact up to the upper levels of the farm. I still rank guys like Cosart higher, but performance and health at a higher level in the system has to be credited.
I well remember another Phillies low-A Spartanburg starting rotation of probably two decades ago, which was as ballyhooed as this past season’s Lakewood rotation. They rated a collective full-page write up in BA. All those guys fell by the wayside before they reached the majors. Mainly injuries. Hopefully the Phillies are better at avoiding those problems today.
On Brannan, that is an individual case of a guy who suddenly came down with Steve Blass disease. He was not overrated. He was an excellent prospect who self destructed. A mental rather than a physical thing.
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No problem with Sickles’ top 10. His 11-20 not good.
He is always late onto the talented players, who’s numbers don’t jump out and bite him. He just threw this list together. As late as yesterday he was still knocking off names from a list of 39 and someone had to tell him that Jesus Sanchez wasn’t still on the team.
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Sickels is one person rating 30 different major league organizations. His lists are usually heavily performanced based which I’d well expect. I can evaluate toolsy Phillies prospects well enough, but I’d look ridiculous if I tried to rate some of the west coast teams. Like many of us, he has to go on video, stats and scouting reports and I don’t think he gets to see these players often in person (if ever, he’s based in Kansas). Interesting list though. Obviously if we all posted our top 20s we’d have something that looks ridiculous to someone else in them.
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Does anyone know if chris coste is still an active player? If he’s thinking about retirement I hope the phils bring him aboard as a coach.
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Coste had TJ surgery last year I believe. There is no word on whether he’s trying to make a come back from that.
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when i voted for colvin i was hopin he was gonna be more than Joe Blanton
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Thanks nepp!!
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