2011 Reader Top 30, #7

2011 Reader Top 30

Now things get tricky. Sebastian Valle took the number 6 spot rather easily. So we move on to #7

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2. Jon Singleton, OF
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP
4. Brody Colvin, RHP
5. Trevor May, RHP
6. Sebastian Valle, C
7.

105 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #7”

  1. Had to go Biddle. Lefty starter, can throw low 90-91 at such a young age with tons of projection and growth ahead. Just my opinion in trying to value prospects.

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  3. Vance Worley because a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I think he’s a solid #5 starter and I wouldn’t be surprised if other teams are asking about his availability. I think other guys have the potential to be better but potential has never won a single game, had a single hit or helped hoist a single banner. I’ll go with proximity over potential here.

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  5. I went with Biddle over Worley because in the end I see Biddle being a top of the rotation type of pitcher and Worley being a #5/long relief guy.

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  6. Went with Biddle– loved the pick when they made it and loved it even more after he performed well in his first professional season. I mean no disrespect but pitchers like Worley are a dime a dozen; the people who are valuing him so highly are putting too much stock in a really small MLB sample size in relief against some lousy teams and one start against Atlanta. His stuff is average.

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  9. Gillies was my #6 – the more I look at him, the more I think he’s got real potential to be a star at the top of the lineup.

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  10. I think Atherr should start to appear in the list pretty soon. He’s in contention for at least the #9 or 10 spot in probably a lot of people’s minds.

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  13. My first vote goes to Gillies and then Worley.

    It will still be quite a while until I vote for Biddle.
    He may be good, but until he gets some more than 10 innings in the NY Penn Leauge, where his whip was 1.548, and shows stuff in game play he falls well below others.

    Other than the Phil’s generally reaching for the local boy at #27 because he was signable, I don’t see anything there yet. This is not to say he won’t be, but 10 so-so innings in the NYPL does not give any yard-stick for any type of measurement.

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  14. ***Other than the Phil’s generally reaching for the local boy at #27 because he was signable, I don’t see anything there yet. This is not to say he won’t be, but 10 so-so innings in the NYPL does not give any yard-stick for any type of measurement.***

    18 year old LHPs that can hit mid-90s on the gun are pretty rare. There’s a ton of raw potential there. He wasnt a huge reach at #27, just a mild one. He would have been gone by our 2nd round pick and they really liked his arm.

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  15. There really isn’t a ‘good’ pick for #7, we’re at the point where all the options have serious questions. I can’t go this high with James, even with this as his first year as a position player, he has to put up more than a .686 OPS to rate this high. Also needs to walk a lot more. Santana didn’t put up good numbers, but is younger and had a bit better OPS with more walks as an 18-yr old at Williamsport. Biddle also at 18 put up quite nice numbers at Williamsport, although the walks way too high and likely lucky on the ERA and H/9. His ERA at GCL was high, but the K/9 was excellent. I have to rank him above Santana. All three of these guys have great size, which just adds to the projectability. I’m not impressed with Worley’s ceiling. I originally had downgraded Gillies to #12 when I did my list in Sept. because of his legal woes, but they seem behind him. The leg problems are worrisome, but I think he has a really high ceiling. I’m tempted to go with Mathieson or DeFratus here. Either could be a major league closer. So the vote is, with not much confidence at all, Gillies. Really, I think you could have half a dozen guys tied for 7th. As I said yesterday, a significant step down, in probability rather than ceiling, from the top 6.

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  16. I mentioned in previous threads that I watched Biddle pitch in person. I don’t know where mid 90s comes from, he threw 90-91. Change of pace (curve) came in at 71. His command was absolutely shot as he walked six batters. He may have been fatigued, I’m certain I caught him on a bad day. But he showed two pitches. He has potential but he’s a long way away yet.

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  17. From scouting reports, he can “touch” mid-90s when he’s really on…but sits low 90s as you stated.

    Just like Hamels can touch 96-97 on a good day but normally works in the 91-93 range (or lower)

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  18. Note: I am NOT comparing Biddle to Hamels or saying anything of that sort…just using a well known example from our team to illustrate my point.

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  20. There are really 4 or 5 good picks (or more) for this spot. I went with Worley because he’s so close and because I think he’s still got a fair amount of upside. Assuming Joe Blow is traded, don’t be surprised if Worley wins 12 or 13 games this year with an ERA in the high 3s or low 4s. He really is quite good.

    After Worley I pick Biddle, but, again, it’s hard to choose.

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  22. Anyone else catch Mitch Williams on ‘Hot Stove’ saying that Dom Brown got ‘exposed’ in the majors and has no shot with his current swing?

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  24. I voted for Jiwan James but wouldn’t be surprised if it was Gillies, Biddle, or Worley. I think that James has a shot to turn into the next Domonic Brown.

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  25. Can someone explain the James excitement to me…other than his defensive reputation?

    I watched him play a couple times this year and wasn’t all that impressed.

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  26. To Skunky, I am one of those people valuing Worley so highly (I have him #2 overall). It is not because of what he did in Philly, although that does not hurt. It is slightly more because he made it to Philadelphia and the Phillies showed faith in him both by giving him an important start and, I believe, by trading Happ, but that’s not really it either. I evaluate him highly mostly because of his entire body of work in 2010, mostly in Reading (113 IP), some in L.V. (45 IP) and the very little bit in Philly (2 starts vs Florida and Atlanta, 3 relief appearances, 13 IP) as a 22-year old former 3rd round pick. He pitched 171 innings one year after going 153 innings, and has stayed healthy. I like that progression. His season ERA was 3.21, his H/9IP 8.8. His very good 131 SO/50 BB ratio, with just 4 HBP and 3 WP show me he has good control. His 2010 season 2.62 SO/BB ratio and 0.7 HR/9IP ratios are in line with his minor league career ratios of 2.72 and 0.8. The HR rate below 1 makes sense because he his 46% career ground ball rate is decent. Adding to these statistics are scouting reports saying he could take time to develop since he uses 4 pitches (fastball, slider, curve, cutter). His fastball of 90-93 is not outstanding, but it’s not bad either. It is around the major league average for a a right-hander. I don’t understand those who limit his “ceiling.” He is still young and improving. He may already be major league ready for a poor team. I expect him to spend this season at AAA gaining consistency with all of his pitches, and continuing to improve his ERA and K rate, without losing his BB and HR rate. Then he will be able to compete for the rookie of the year award as a 24-year old in 2012.

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  28. I voted Other: Julio Rodriguez. At Age 19, in Lakewood:

    56.1 IP, 32 HA, 22 BB (that’s a sub-1 WHIP), 1.44 ERA, 90K.

    He’s in the Puerto Rican League this Winter, where he had a tough start, but in his past 5 starts:

    27.1 IP, 13 HA, 11 BB, 16K, 1 ER. This as a just-turned-20 year old after a full season in the minors against competition much older than him (and a quick look at rosters show that there are some guys with major league experience around the league). With reports that he was in the low 90s by the end of the year, he has to be a legit prospect.

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  29. I don’t understand the james excitement. Gillies has proven more and is just as big of a question mark with his injuries and of field history. Worley is my choice and biddle should be next. People who vote for James because of the two years he spent as a p and go with the he needs time thing. Well Colby shreve had two years off because of tj surgery and he performed better this year than James. Who’s right or who’s wrong only time will tell.

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  30. Very surprised Gillies is faring so well at this spot.

    I also think Altherr should be added for the next round

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  31. Gillies was very impressive in Spring Training and he had a great 2009 (even when you adjust for the High Desert). Add in his very good defense and he could be poised for a huge 2010 season.

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  32. JulioR likely has my vote after Worley and Gillies.
    He has shown unreal numbers against good competition.

    I’m really excited to see what he can do next year.

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  33. On Worley:

    1. What I saw last year was a major league pitcher. Unless he regresses (which is possible), there’s no reason to demote him.

    2. While I could see Worley starting the year as the long man out of the pen (possible in-house candidates are Worley, Kendrick and Herndon), I would be very surprised if Worley ends up as a reliever. He has classic starter stuff and a workhorse frame. You’re wasting a guy like that if you bring him out of the pen.

    3. Worley does throw pretty hard. His fastball is in the 92-95 range. And that’s the not the only pitch he throws. He mixes in change-ups, cutters and sliders. He’s got a lot going on and ALL of the pitches move.

    4. Worley just turned 23 this fall. If, for some reason, he added another MPH or two to his FB, you are looking a pitcher with a huge upside. Even without improving his velocity there’s a lot of upside.

    I did not used to be a big Worley fan, but once I saw him pitch a few times, I did a 180. A lot of folks are missing out on just how good of a pitcher this guy could become.

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  34. I dont quite get the Worley love. His ceiling appears to be a 5th starter or mid innings bullpen guy. Not really what u want from a top 10 prospect in a good system. Biddle was my choice.

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  35. I went with Biddle. A young, lefty that can throw in the low 90’s and has projection is worth a lot in my book. I feel that Biddle/Gillies/Worley can go in any order in the next 4 picks. It will be interesting to see who else squeaks in the top 10.

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  36. My choice of Austin Hyatt here is a political pick. I do like Worley here also. Hyatt has progressed steadily through the system helping Lakewood to their 2009 championship and “settling in” (Pitcher of the Year) as a starter last year in Clearwater. He did not embarrass himself at Reading either. With a decent fastball balanced by a superb change-up, he will be working on control of his off-speed pitches this year. I withdrew my Worley vote ( I hope he gets #7) in favor of boosting Hyatt. I think he belongs in the top 10, at the lowest the top 15 players in the organization. I also like the idea of a college player because there has been so much emphasis on “tools”. The last time I looked there were a lot of two-tool major leaguers hitting the ball very well (GO Matt Rizzotti).

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  37. To be fair nobody expected Happ to be more than replacement level either and look at what he’s been able to accomplish.

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  38. Very close among Worley, Biddle, and Gillies. I had flipped a coin on those guys and went with Worley, his relative certainty outweighing some better upside with lots of ifs for each of them, IMO. Can’t argue with anyone else’s choices here. I think you have a group of four guys, including James, whom you could order any way you want and make a good argument.

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  39. What separates Santana and Aumont are performance. From Santana, we have only seen brief flashes revealing his potential. From Aumont, we have seen some performance here and there, but also frustratingly bad performance. All the other guys I mentioned above have more solid track records and have proven themselves a bit more, except Biddle, who gets a pass into that group because he has not performed badly yet and performed well after promotion to Short A as a high schooler. So he is a virgin for bad performance, and we can look at his potential without any muddiness.

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  40. A big problem is that people are voting on different things. “Best Prospect” is open to interpretation – some vote based on ceiling, some on proximity to the majors, etc…

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  41. I voted for Worley. I think that here the whole is more than the sum of the parts. No one pitch is overpowering, but the combination is impressive, the overall statistics are impressive (see Ken45 above), and he seems to have a good temperament for a pitcher. I expect that Worley is penciled in as the fifth starter if the Phillies can succeed in their plan to trade Blanton and trade or release Kendrick to save money. If these roster moves don’t happen in the off season, then Worely is probably in AAA to start the season as there will be no room for him on the 25 man roster. However, they will probably make these moves before the deadline and if he does well in LHV he will likely be back. Of course they might sign Pedro again and all bets are off!

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  42. After reading his profile on “Scouting the Sally”, I believe Julio Rodriguez should be on the shortlist. When you consider Julio has solid command of a lively low 90s fastball, a big hook, and an ideal frame with room to grow, combined with his phenomenal stats, you have to think he’s at least a candidate for a top 10 spot. He’s exactly the sort of guy you regret underestimating when he blows up next year.

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  43. As expected, this is where it gets really interesting. We’re all looking at the same guys, we just value them a bit differently and that’s fine. I took Biddle here because a 1st round big young lefthander has tremendous upside. I expect that he’ll improve his fastball this year as he spends more time with the minor league staff. Last year, they just sort of let him pitch to se what they had. All of our choices are flawed at this point so its how each of us values a player. If Gillies plays as well as I think he’s capable of, he’ll jump up but I can’t overlook his struggles last year before he got hurt. Santana has too many holes in his swing but he’s very young. James has tremendous ability but he’ll have two at bats in a row where you’ll just shake your head before he lines a gapper the next time or makes an unbelievable play in the OF. He’s just not consistent and the question is whether that will come with more playing time or whether it won’t. Worley (by the way I don’t agree that he was drafted to be a reliever, he’s a horse and always looked like a starter to me) looks like he could become a solid 4th/5th starter, although my guess is that KK will get that job at least to start the year, but without much upside beyond that. Altherr is a very nice looking player who looks way more like a young Dom Brown than James does. Altherr is a corner OF (tall and thin) who needs to fill out and who could find some power as he gains weight. I also have to add that I love DeFratus as I value closers very highly, if he can stay in that role in the big leagues. And lastly, I think Jon Pettibone could end up being the most undervalued pitcher we have. What he did in the 2nd half of the season was like a different pitcher. He obviously changed or learned something that had a dramatic effect on his performance. His control improved as did his fastball and his off speed stuff. As I’ve said before, our Clearwater staff looks very strong on paper. These are my #7 – #14 picks right there and it will be interesting to see how they are valued by everyone.

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  44. ****Worley (by the way I don’t agree that he was drafted to be a reliever, he’s a horse and always looked like a starter to me)****

    The comments when he was drafted were basically “He could be a Scot Shields type reliever” and he “could be fast-tracked to the Majors as a reliever”.

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  45. Biddle here. Obviously this is based on projection. The Phillies have been doing a great job with their young pitchers and I think that we’ll see good things from Biddle over the next two years.

    I wouldn’t have a problem with Worley, Aumont, or even J. Rod in this spot. Gillies scares me with the Hamstring. For some reason those things tend to stick around, and even being a young guy he had real problems getting it back to full health.

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  48. Looking forward to seeing Aaron Altherr in the minor league camp. Saw him play a game in Williamsport and another time when he was on the DL working the autograph table there with Mario Hollands. Great guy as we talked about the heat and humidity of Clearwater where he was for extended ST. Reminded me of a young Jayson Werth type with his build and the way he covered left and hit a gap double in that game.

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  49. I thought the comments about Worley were that he could be a back end starter OR a Scot Shields type reliever. I don’t know that the Phillies were pidgeonholing him into one of those roles right off the bat. At this point, he’s had mostly success as a starter so I don’t see why we should conclude that he’s a reliever in the end.

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  50. Jrod He ended up not too far from 2ks an inning at lakewood. I luv that he got better when promoted. I expect half a season Clearwater.
    Nice of Phillipe to vote for himself.

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  51. Cosart, colvin project to be 5 th starters in this rotation. Worley is getting this fifth starter tag which doesn’t make much sense. Does anyone remember his scoreless streak this year? He was a 3rd roound pick. It’s not like he’s got stuff like kk! A mid rotation starter I think is his potential. On a team with four aces his potential is fifth starter.

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  53. Worley. He was placed in AA ahead of schedule and didn’t disappoint until tiring late in ’09. He made adjustments in his workout regimen that paid off big time last year culminating in a successful stint in Philly. He showed composure as well as decent stuff which produced solid results even if the sample size is small.
    I don’t buy the limitations others are putting on him.
    He deserves this high ranking.

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  54. Defratus, JRod, & Altherr are all just as capable of going in this slot as the names list, thus I voted for Biddle.

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  56. Great comments. I agree with others that then next bunch is difficult to decipher and it depends on what we each value more. I have not seen any of these guys in person so I am just relying on the information I get from this site.
    Someone had mentioned in last thread that it is rare to have such an obvious gap between the “Top” prospects (1-6) and the “Rest”. But I would say that as recently as early 2009 — Drabek, Brown, Carrasco, Marson, Donald, Taylor, D’Arnaud, (Happ) — were the consensus Top7 or 8 in the system by most though the order was debatable.

    Worley does not strikeout enough hitters for me to believe in his upside. Happ always had strong K/IP and has been able to get out of jams in the majors with Ks. James, Altherr, and Santana could be major flameouts (like Chris Roberson). Gillies is slightly further along but his value will be tied to his walk rate. If he hits .200, pitchers are unlikely to walk him anymore. Bastardo and Mathieson are both at the door step and dominated AAA but are relievers (and may not be eligible). Despite De Fratus’ consistent excellence, he is a reliever now with less than 25IP above A ball.

    Rodriguez has been flying up my chart as his stuff seems to be real (no RJ Swindle type) and he was the most dominant pitcher in the system. But I went with Biddle at #7 due to his draft status, K-rate, and lefthandedness.

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  57. I think De fratus should be on the list. On many teams in the bigs he would be on the opening day roster. He has a projectable upside and is ready for the big show. Having said that I voted for Worley. I can’t vote for Biddle yet. He is at least 4 years away and there have been a whole plethera of hard throwing, big potential 18 year olds who don’t even make it out of AA. His body of work is too small to really tell us anything.

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  58. FWIW, I believe that in the year the Phils drafted Worley, BA stated he was one of 2-3 our draftees that were closest to the major leagues.

    It just may be that Worley has been under our radar since he’s been in pro ball, but their scouts/evaluators saw stuff in him that were ripe for development.

    I believe he could well turn out to be a valuable piece as a #3 in a rotation. He did make solid progress in ’10…as if the box was then fully opened and the “real potential Worley” has emerged.

    I look for him to make some kind of good contribution to the big club in ’11.

    BUT, I picked Biddle of whom it has been said has front line starter strong possibilities. And, that favored commodity, a lefty.

    Worley next.

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  59. Biddle.
    I just believe Biddle has more value at this time. On close comparisons like this one, break the Tye based on who I think has more trade value. I cannot imagine Worley having nearly the value of Biddle or anyone that has been chosen so far.

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  60. You know what’s really great about our prospect class. I’m going deeper on my list and even after 50 there are still some really interesting names. I have guys off my top 30 who I like (Schwim for example). There are just too many good players ahead of them.

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  61. Biddle to me has such a small sample, compared to what worley, that I can’t see putting him ahead of worley who already show us some nice stuff, at the major league level, right now it has to be worley, but if people can put aumont and gillies up this high, two guys who have shown nothing, especially aumont, and gillies shown he is into drugs , if any of these guys is top ten are system is very very week.

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  62. MikeMike,

    I think Santa is putting Coal in your stocking this year for telling mean spirited lies and falsehoods about good people. I’m not why you are claiming certain Phillies are drug users without any form of justification. Sounds as if there is deep hatred in your heart.

    Aumont – Was Rated in the Top 25 of all Prospects by BBA Last year. Was quite dominant this fall in international competition, including against Cuba’s best which has high level talent.

    Gillies – Dominated in 2009, Amazed the whole staff in Spring Training and then went down with a hammy that never fully healed.

    I can respect those who vote Biddle this high, even thought I have Biddle much further down, but I am not going to spread lies about him being a Drug User just because I don’t want him rated that high.

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  63. I voted Gillies as well- love his athleticism. Don’t think one injured year should have people writing him off though the drug issue is obviously something to be concerned about. On the subject of James, I saw him play last year and came away impressed. He made things happen on the bases with his legs and hit 2 ropes for base hits while getting robbed once. His defense is excellent as we know. I know it was 1 game, but he showed me a lot.

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  64. As someone that has seen Biddle I agree with what others that have seen him have said. He has little control and basically gets his outs through a really good curve ball. I like his potential but he has a really long way to go and I could see him struggling if he was promoted to Lakewood next season. I’ve also seen Worley pitch in Lakewood last year and think that he is more of a sure deal/refined than Biddle. That being said I went with Gillies, who i’ve never seen.

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  65. Worley again, and he could have been a couple of spots higher. Everybody past this point is a question mark. Worley also has the most trade value among the minor leaguers still left, as he is ready for MLB duty, and the rest would simply be buying on spec as a throw-in for an established player. They need to get higher to even be considered as a serious piece for a trade.

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  66. I would love to see worley become a long time mlb player either as a #5 or as a reliever. Both have a lot of value. However, I don’t see it. He fastball was way too straight. No movement and doesn’t have plus location. His stats are meaningless at this point as kendrick has shown us. I hope I am wrong. But at this point, Biddle seems like clearly a better prospect. Big framed, 18-year old lefties that throw low 90S and have a competitve streak don’t grow on trees. If he adds muscle and sits mid-90s he has #1 potential if he develops his offspead pitches, which the phils have a good track record of developing. He seems to have very good control as an 18YO. Gilles is exciting, but has a major red flag.

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  67. I find it interesting that some assume that Biddle has no value because he is in the low minors. Jason Knapp was the center piece of the trade that brought Cliff Lee, and Biddle is a higher rated prospect than he was.
    At the start of the 2009 season JA Happy was the 10th rated prospect in the system as a “finished” product. Worley is not the prospect Happ was, and some consider him a top 5? I have read that the Phillies system will be 10-15 overall, similar to the beginning of 2009. The high rank attached to Worley this year does not make sense to me.
    The PP fan poll always seems to be way behind Baseball America, in the area of projection. Older pitchers get over rated a little here.

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  68. For as much love as J.A. Happ gets, he’s still a guy with only 19 career wins to his name. If we were certain, dead certain Worley would be a long term #3-4 pitcher, that has value. But pitchers can just as easily fade quickly. Think Marty Bystrom or Pat Combs. Some pitchers had great cups of coffee at a young age but never accomplished much after that. That’s why I can’t rate Worley among the elite in the system.

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  69. mike77
    You should take each pitcher individually ,each year. Happ got even less attention than Worley but that is history and therefore over.
    What can you say negatively about 2010 Worley? Samal sample yes. but how many guys can say even for a time that NOONE got a hit 0-0, 0-1 or 0-2. At worse you can say he was pitching to like players not major league vet but isn’t that also an accomplishment. To me mlb ready is a factor.

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  71. Ok, this whole 0-1, 0-2 thing is bullshit of the highest magnitude. First off, that only measures results WHEN THE HITTER MADE AN OUT. If he took the 0-1 pitch, doesn’t register. Worley gave up hits AFTER going 0-1. Second, when you look at the 0-2 split you’re looking at three plate appearances. THREE! You know how significant that is? Cody McKay faced seven batters without giving up a hit in his major league career, and he was a catcher!

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  73. I was able to watch both Savery and Biddle in their debuts in Williamsport. Remember scratching my head after the game on Savery’s stuff but came away impressed with Jesse’s. Biddle’s breaking pitch had too much movement even for the young NY-Penn League plate umpire to followed as he missed a called third strike on a quality curve ball he was not used to seeing which appeared to catch the outside corner of the plate in that game. I’ll never forget all 1500 fans that night letting out an audible groan on that call.

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  74. Alan do you plan on being yourself next year? It seems you never have an idea but wait to shoot down everyone on the site. You offer no rational . Please get a life

    And Mike 0-2 was offered just because it was there. I don’t expect Alan to understand how important getting batters out 0-0 and 0-1 but
    you teamed with Alan. Oh well some people don’t care who they hang around with.(yes Alan I know that is a preposition)

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  75. I view Biddle & Worley about the same, either way they both should be off the board in the next two spots. Then from there it gets interesting.

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  76. I really do not understand why Aumont is still so highly regarded….I voted for Biddle because I think the potential for greatness is there while I think Worley can be a solid ML player, the upside for Biddle is much higher…I am looking for him to take a big step this year….I have read several articles on him and from those statements he has made publicly he seems to “get it”…..if he does become what the fans & organization thinks he can become, what a coup it would be……the organization really liked him and knew he would not be around come our 2nd pick, and they would be harped on for years if a kid in their own backyard was passed on yet became an All Star somewhere else.

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  77. mwgrad your right he was innocent but still remember the scouts report on gillies, where they question his bat. in higher better league, because he got a lot of hits in lower league they doubt would be hits in higher leagues., aumont to me showed nothing, But on gillies yes I should never have said it, my mistake.

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  78. Long time lurker here. Figured this would be a good time to chime in. I voted for Justin DeFratus. He’s my choice to be on the MLB roster no later than the All-Star break. Having a front line prospect in a soon to be position of need is really exciting.

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  79. The biggest argument here is not which player to list at no.7, but rather defining which attributes should be weighted when valuating major league talent. Interesting debate, and for me, Worley’s a lock for this spot. There’s alot to like about Santana, or Gillies, or Biddle, and we all have the right to adjust our rankings as the season progresses. Right now, based on my own interpretation, Worley would be ranked in the 3-4 range.

    Great website, great discussions. Have a Happy Holiday everyone !!

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  80. First off I should apologize. I didn’t mean to come off so antagonistically. It’s just frustrating to me when meaningless evidence is used to prop up a favored prospect. I don’t dislike Worley as a prospect. I have him #11 on my personal list. His peripherals were good in the majors. I think some people are wary of him because of his poor 2009 season, but he was double jumped that season, was a third round pick out of the draft and he was terrific in 2008.

    That I rate him #11 is not an insult I feel. There are many, many good players on this list.

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  82. Geez, I don’t think rating Worley as the #11 prospect is an insult. People differ on his value as a prospect. But for my personal observations of him, I would probably have him somewhere between 10 and 15. But I understand the points of those who look at him with a bit of skepticism – I just happen to think he is going to be a lot better than projected because his stuff is much better than I had expected. But, yeah, I could be dead wrong.

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  83. J DeF should be on the list next.

    I believe there are a lot of guys you would put 10 through 15 but not so much 7 to 9 if this makes any sense.

    And

    Merry Christmas to all. Love the conversation here.

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  85. People squabble over whether someone who has a 60% chance of being a #4/5 type starter in the bigs (Worley) has more or less value than someone who has maybe a 10% chance of being a #2 type (Biddle). It’s vanilla versus chocolate. No one is right. My personal preference for pitchers is I tend to like those who have passed the minor league injury threshold, which Worley has. We don’t have any idea if Biddle, etc. can hold up, so I devalue them a bit. That’s why, to me, Singleton and Valle are both better prospects than Cosart and Colvin. The injury risk for low-A pitchers is just way, way too high. And Cosart has already been hurt. The guy can throw 97/98. Doesn’t help much if he can’t do it for a couple of hundred innings a year, though.

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  86. phillychuck
    Nicely put. I believe every year is thing unto itself with prospects unless two years are similar thus showing a trend or lack of growth. Its odd that I get flack for Worley while others promote player who have done nada.

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  87. Happy Holidays!

    BTW . . . I agree that DeFratus should be in the top 10. Usually, I don’t put relievers that high, but when a guy has a chance to develop into the team’s closer (and thereby save the team countless millions on an experienced closer), I think that merits consideration.

    I think the team will resist every urge to promote DeFratus this spring, but he is going to get a loooong look this ST and he could easily be one of the surprise mid-season promotions if he dominates at AAA (I could see Baez getting released in preparation for such a move). I hope the team remains patient with these young relievers. There are so many of them with talent that things are bound to work out if they just give it time. That having been said, I still think the team gets an experienced lefty to start out the year in the bullpen. That hole needs to be filled but, aside from that, they should be fine.

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  88. Certainly cooler minds prevailed in not signing Reyes which had the potential to be another sinkhole. If only they could trade Lidge and five mil. for a tastycake and open the door for Soria. It looks like Raul is here to stay but “Rubenclaus” keep all it quiet.

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  89. “60% chance at 4-5 starter or 10% chance at #2 starter”.
    Those numbers are arbitrary. They do not portray an accurate sense of the argument.
    I don’t see Worley as anywhere near a sure thing as a Major League starter, because of talent level. Biddle has elite talent, Worley does not. I personally have Worley in my top 10, so I am not trying to insult him, but #5 starters are ‘a dime a dozen’. Elite talent is not easily obtained, number 5 starters are easily obtained. Personally, I don’t think Trevor May is a significantly better “prospect” than Biddle. I certainly do not see Worley as a better prospect than Biddle.

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  90. The projection vs. proximity discussion is a tempest in a teapot, IMO, but serves to pass the time in Ded/Jan, it’s best feature.

    The discussion is a little like asking people to rate the best car/car stereo system. The great cars that have the best stereo systems will naturally be at the top, just like the most talented, best perming, closest to majors prospects (Brown, e.g.).

    When you get down to iffy cars with great stereos or nice cars with lousy stereos, you get a big difference of opinion. On the corresponding prospect issue, it’s really best to rate two ways–one list for best ceiling, another for most likely to achieve their potential. But people don’t like to have two polls, so we get lots of arguments about which factor to emphasize more, how to weight them. I think most people just do an intuitive wiggling of factors, but look at a prospect with their own biases in mind.

    (The car/stereo thing is just an analogy. I am aware it does not map perfectly to the topic at hand.)

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  91. DD, a better car analogy would be the choice between buying a Shelby Cobra frame or a 2010 Kia compact car for $20,000. The Kia is a finished product and drivable, but has limited value, that is not likely to improve. The Shelby Cobra frame is not drivable, but with some work, could double or triple your investment.
    Major League teams win championships with multiple Shelby Cobra’s in the garage, not with Kia sedans. That is how you become the Pirates.

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  92. Mike77. I get that already. You missed my point completely. I wasn’t saying not to draft high ceiling guys. Phils do that and it seems to be working. I like it. Besides putting athletic talent in the system, it gives us more chances to develop a star, and helps us make trades with more depth of talent.

    I am talking about rating individual players. I would not trade Worley for Santana today–too much present value over pure speculation and raw tools. but I might do it next year if Santana hits .260 at Lakewood with 18 HRs or something like that to show me he is progressing and shows he might actually be a pro baseball player (and I like Santana, have seen him play, and was impressed). It was purely a point about the tradeoffs people make in rating guys where one rating takes in a number of unlike factors.

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  93. DD, I understood your position on the subject, I just thought a better analogy could have been used.

    I also agree that I would not trade Worley for Santana, but I don’t see Santana as an “Elite” talent. I just see him as a “raw” talent. There is a difference between elite raw talent and decent raw talent. Santana rates out of my top 10, because he is raw and I don’t view him as an elite talent.
    Elite talent: Brown, Singleton, Cosart, Colvin and Biddle. Potential to be elite due to tools: May, Gillies, James and Aumont.

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  94. mike77, I think you are overrating Biddle. I’ve never heard someone put his stuff on the same level as Cosart and Colvin, especially people in this thread who have seen him. If I am wrong and missed such a comparison, I apologize.

    On J-Rod, the only thing holding me back is the Phils’ use of him. If he were such a great prospect, why didn’t the Phils have him as a full season starter somewhere? Perhaps the Phils were underestimating him at the beginning of the season, but after his performance wouldn’t you think they’d have moved someone else aside? Given him more innings? No one knows the Phils’ prospects better than they do, so this is what holds me back about him. Maybe they’ll start him as a full-season starter in 2011 and my concerns will be resolved. But if they continue to only use him out of the pen, we can’t rate him too high.

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  95. Some pundits have compared Biddle to Hamels with a different array of pitches, but with the same competitive nature and the apparent ability to be “coachable” to develop several better than average pitches plus an ability to pitch in the zone.

    Add in that he’s only 19 with those oncoming skills…and that the Phils moved him up to Lkwd before the season’s end. Expectations are of his growth to maybe 6’6″ – 6’7″ ; add that intimidation factor and that height increase could make his arm plane a bit higher which often goes with increased velocity.

    It would be no surprise to me when Biddle turns out to be one of rare gems of that draft. A final polishing: he is a hard worker who was understandably overjoyed that he was chosen by them as a local guy…who has been rooting for the Phils for a long time.

    To me, all that bespeaks a possible #1 in a rotation.

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  96. Biddle and Hamels are both lefties and both drafted out of high school in the first round. How else are they similar, and who are the pundits that say so?

    I saw Hamels as a pitching prodigy. I think the pitcher who comes closest to that description in the Phillies’ current farm system is Cosart. I don’t see Biddle in that way.

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  97. I don’t see Biddle being similar to Hamels in any meaningful way. The Phillies are hoping that Biddle will develop into a power lefty, much like Clayton Kershaw. Hamels, while he can throw quite hard, bases his game on precision and deception – he is a classic multi-pitch lefty, albeit at the very high end of that spectrum along with Cliff Lee. They are hoping that Biddle develops into a classic power pitcher in the Kershaw, Koufax, Langston mold. No, I am not comparing him to Koufax, I am just telling you the type of pitcher they would like him to become.

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  98. By the way, if Biddle were a year or two farther into his development and continued to pitch as well as he has thus far, I would have him ranked in the top 5, but he’s still too young, too far removed from the majors, and still too early in his development for me to rank him that high at the moment.

    The rest of my top ten (assuming Worley wins #7) will probably look something like this:

    8. Biddle
    9. Gillies
    10. DeFratus

    James, Aumont, Rodriguez, Garcia, and Santana, in some order I have not yet determined, would likely round out the top 15.

    By the way, if you look at James’ age, numbers, and lack of experience, you would have to think he’s not much of a prospect. I just have to trust the reports that he is such a superb athlete and talent that he will overcome these hurdles and develop into something – basically, the scouting reports are so overwhelming that I have to give them some credence. If both he and Gillies develop, one of them would almost certainly be traded unless one of the two develops significant power and can become a corner outfielder – something that does not look likely at this point.

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  99. Bostonphan, as far as rating Biddle alongside Cosart and Colvin as players, I am not. I am rating him alongside them as far as talent level based on the draft services rankings of all 3 pitchers, and Biddle’s success in SS ball.
    It is very possible that I am over rating Biddle, but considering some of the pre draft experts had him as one of the 3 best Left Handed HS pitchers in the country I don’t think I am. When you are top 3 in anything, you are elite, plain and simple. LH pitchers that are 6’4, 200 lbs, and throw 94, and have other pitches, at age 18, are not the norm.
    Considering where Baseball America ranks Biddle and where they rank Worley, I would say that the PP fan poll is over rating Worley, but not Biddle.

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  100. Looking over some fringe prospects. Anyone know what happened with Stephen Inch and Ryan Sasaki? Were they hurt and are they still in the organization?

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  101. I thought Inch retired.

    Not sure though.

    Baseball America has a decided slant towards potential over performance (ie they like the Hewitts & Colliers of the world a bit too much at times).

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  102. I kinda prefer that approach from their handbooks. I can read statistics pretty well on my own. But damned if I know who the valuable players are in the Gulf Coast League.

    I don’t think they rated Hewitt or Collier unfairly at any point. We all got excited about Collier after his GCL debut. But I do think they WAY overrated Kyrell Hudson last season.

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  103. NEPP, I completely agree. After having followed this site this year and seen the top ten lists assembled by various sources, it seems all have their specific biases – it’s as if you could write the lists for them knowing their particular bent. Salisbury is going to list the guys in AA and AAA who did well (regardless of age), the hot draft prospects (Jesse Biddle) and few guys that scouts in the organization tell him are going to be good even if Jim Salisbury frankly knows nothing about the player (for example, I’d be surprised if Salisbury really ever saw Jiwan James play, but he was listed, I believe). BA is incredibly tools and youth heavy – Matt Rizzotti doesn’t go on their lists. I think some of the best scouting reports I’ve seen in the last few years came from MLB Fanhouse (not sure if it was a top 10 list – just a player watch) – they saw the development of Monasterios and Singleton before almost anyone else.

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  104. I thought we would see Sasaki and Inch at Williamsport this year. Neither was in the Instructional League, which makes me wonder about injury. Inch was liked when signed. Sasaki did not distinguish himself in GCL. Inch has not pitched much.

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