Phillies sign Cliff Lee

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I’m breaking from tradition. We deserve it, especially after I spent a year quelling all of the Cliff Lee talk on this site.

Phillies traded Lee on December 14th, 2009 for 3 prospects. They then signed Roy Halladay.
1 Year later, they re-signed Lee to a 5 year deal. We essentially rented him out for a year, received 3 prospects, plus the best pitcher in baseball, and then we got him back.

Beyond amazing.

Discuss!

179 thoughts on “Phillies sign Cliff Lee”

  4. WOWEE!!!

    Impossible!…but True?!!

    For me, after celebrating, this confirms that they believe Oswalt will leave after the ’11eason…either retire as he has mentioned before or go the free agency route. He IS 36 (?) yrs old in ’11.

    Congrats to Ruben who has sneaked up on us again.

    So…for at least one season: Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswalt…plus Joe Schmo. Or Worley vs Kendrick.

    Sorry, PP, we will have to give up an early draft choice…but we will still be left with one extra one anyway (???)! in June ’11. And awaiting are the fearsome foursome (or more) presently thinking about their season in the sun in Clearwater ’11.

    [Now let’s get that 3rd baseman and SS]

    Just overcame the Giant’s short-time lead.

    WOW!!

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  5. Boy it’s nice to be the team swooping in at the 11th hour and stealing the FA to end all FAs from the Yankees. If anyone needs any indication of how much the culture has changed in Philadelphia with regard to the Phillies, one needn’t look further than the fact that the biggest FA in this year’s pool by far just took less money and guaranteed years to play in Philadelphia. Awesome. Completely and utterly awesome.

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  6. when do we hear Oswalt is being traded??? Just kidding, fantastic news, Blanton for an RH OF with 1 year remaining, Brown gets a half a year to refine his skills, and the prized arms in clearwater get to move station by station and fight for the 3rd, 4th, or 5th spots in the rotation in 2013 at the earliest. Baseball America was onto something labeling this team and it’s resources as Brave-like with it’s chance at longevity, not since Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz no more…not since Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels will be the comparison for the new millenium, Orioles with Palmer is the last time a foursome compared to this. A golden era in Philly with the Phillies, Flyers, Eagles, and that other team. Come on February where are you…

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  8. RAJ totally redeems himself. Repays all the loyal fans dishing out their cash for the past several seasons and gives them something to marvel at. I want the season to start tomorrow…I can’t wait to see this rotation wreck havoc on the national league. R2C2!

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  9. picture the rotation HALLADAY LEE OSWALT HAMELS……………and worley….then hear the Sesame Street music…one of these is not like the others….which one dont belong….lol…and I like Worley as the 5th starter!

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  10. This just in Lee has been traded to the cubs for for ivan dejesus…..all I can say is wow, gives the young guys time to do their thing in the minors as tomphilly mentioned. Someone on another site nicknamed them R2C2.

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  11. Wow…The Phillies are a true baseball superpower! And a place where top pitchers will leave millions on the table to play in maybe the best atmosphere and clubhouse in the game. I remember the days of free tickets when you buy a pack of Phillie Franks. Those days are long gone!!

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  13. Wow, wow, wow. Just an absolutely friggin’ stunning development. I’m still pinching myself. No idea how the Phils can swing the finances at $20M+ for five years, but I love it.

    Obviously this means Blanton will be gone, right?

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  14. How about John Smoltz and others a few years ago saying “no free agent pitcher will ever agree to come pitch in that bandbox, they’ll have to overpay”.

    What a night, what a night, what a night.

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  15. Cant believe that our historically hapless phillies are now the team most LIKED by players who are willing to take less to be here.

    the losingest franchise in American sports history sure is shining right now.

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  16. The realization that Cole Hamels is the 4th best pitcher in this rotation is utterly ridiculous………………………………and fantastic.

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  19. YAAAAAY!!!!!!! I’m a bit surprised, & VERY happy! Is this because of Blanton’s mediocre game 4 start? Next year who will the game 4 starter be, Hamels, Lee, or Oswalt? Are they actually going to keep all 4? All season? I can’t believe it. I love Cliff Lee. I was so excited in ’09 when they traded for him. He was their first ace since the early 80’s with John Denny and Steve Carlton. (Schilling and Hamels weren’t at that level, yet, in Philadelphia in the regular season.) In ’10 season Halladay was better, but Lee still had my heart. Now we get both, and Hamels, plus Oswalt. WOW!

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  23. We lose our 1st, but we have the first pick of the compensation round, which I believe would have been 1 pick later and we also have the Nats 2nd round pick, which is the 6th pick of the 2nd round.

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  27. I think the pending Blanton/Ibanez trades bring back salary relief much more than prospects. Maybe you ship both of them to KC, kick in $5-10 mil, and get back one or two fringy reliever prospects.

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  28. Merry F…in Christmas! Unbelievable! Just woke up, saw the ticker along the bottom of the t.v. and could not believe my eyes. I am volunteering my services to drive Joe Blanton directly to his new destination, even if it is the other side of the country. I just cannot believe what I just saw!!!!!!

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  29. Seriously, the key now will be to get Rollins and Victorino into small ball mode this year. Rollins needs to be healthy and Vic needs to stop hacking. Score 4 runs and you win every night. If there is any shot they can bring in more lefty relief help, that would be huge.

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  30. Wow this is great news. When are you guys who bashed raj and the phils for being cheap and wanting to save 9 mill gonna Start posting you were wrong about the phils? I hope pp puts up a seperate post with frequent posters quotes of bashing the phils for looking at the bottom line and such.

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  31. Shocked… stunned… surprised and exuberant! Wow. Let’s trade Blanton, Kendrick, Ibanez and two players to be named later for Greinke. Then we’ll have the Fab 5. Do we need to field 8 position players? Maybe all we need is 2 infielders, a centerfielder and a catcher? It would only be fair to the rest of the league.

    Okay… okay… calm down. Remember.. baseball is the only sport I know of that you can’t score when your on defense. I hope the offense doesn’t stand around drooling at the pitching staff and forgetting that you can’t win if you don’t score runs. I’m hoping that the pressure is relieved on the offense and they can just have fun… scoring runs. It’ll be like having Bernie Parent in goal. You know the other team isn’t going to score so be aggressive and crush the opponent.

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  32. That we signed Cliff Lee is half the fun. The real joy is that the Phillies stuck it to the New York Yankees.

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  33. When I get up off the floor I promise to be stunned. All that has to happen now is the mouseketers turn it around and have great seasons and they can open the Ruben wing of the HOF.
    What are going to bitch about now.
    Let’s get eight bloogers to play the field and save the team money.

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  36. Big winners the NL, more so the NL East,more so the Mets and Washington because you sure as hell will not get a ticket here.
    Too bad we are not playing the AL East. (who cares about the Brewers)

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  37. Not to turn the celebration toward the prospects, but what does this mean for the kids coming up.

    My first thought is that have spending this much money means that every roster spot that is open now, or comes open, belongs to a minimum salary minor leaguer. Do we have any more money to spend?

    My second is that having spent this much money means that prospects should keep their bags packed because RAJ is going to go all out to win this year if things do not go as expected in the first half of the season. Can we afford not to go for it now?

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  38. Amazing. How many times in the history have players come here because of the atmosphere? For all you wanting to trade Utley, remember your leaders create your atmosphere…as do the fans, so congrats to us as well.

    Go Phillies!

    If they can get a decent stick for Blanton… which they should… wow.

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  39. Ruben Amaro is looking like one of the top GMs. I really don’t think this affects our young pitching talent as Cosart/Colvin/May/Biddle etc aren’t projected to arrive till 2014. By that time we will have probably two spots opening. I think Phils trade Blanton and pay half of his deal. Maybe Milwaukee. They have been looking for starters.

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  40. Remembering when Larry Bowa was in charge, and Rolen bolted the team, I hope Charlie Manuel gets at least some of the credit he deserves.

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  41. I’m also very excited about this deal. Nice move, Phils front office!

    Of course, being from Philadelphia I have an impending sense of doom that there is a catch, but for now I’m excited! My guess is that they trade Blanton and try to find someone to take most of his salary, meaning the return in minor leaguers will be small. I also would not be surprised to see them trade one of Hamels or Oswalt to get an RH OF bat. I would not like that very much, but would not be surprised.

    Hopefully this expanded payroll will be matched with an expanded draft budget!

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  42. In the overall scheme of this draft-wise (since this is a farm system oriented site), what we lose for signing Lee basically is cancelled out by what we get for signing Werth.

    Is that a fair assessment??

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  43. Marc H…we lose the 33rd overall pick for signing Lee, but gain the supplemental pick, which should fall between 34 & 37…plus the 44th pick(washington’s 2nd rd pick)…for losing Werth

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  44. As of yesterday those were picks #38 and #53. The first round (with supplemental picks) is now 48 players deep.

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  45. The re-acquisition of Cliff Lee is a complete game changer when it comes to our minor league pitchers. My view of this is that, on the whole, if the Phillies have a minor league starter, unless he is viewed as having tippy-top-of-the-rotation potential (Cosart, Colvin, May and perhaps even Rodriguez), the player will be trade fodder to acquire the other things the team needs, like, perhaps, another infielder or power hitting outfielder (not even sure we are going to need that, but we might). I think it’s a little different with relievers because some of these players will make it just because there are so many spots in the bullpen to fill but, again, other than a player with true closer potential (are you listening Justin DeFratus?), the other players will be kept or traded in the team’s discretion to serve the more important needs of the team.

    The other nice thing about having a glut of farm system talent is that it makes it easier to rent a major league player for a year or two through a trade – another RAJ strategy that, I think, he does better than anyone else.

    Now, let me type it so I actually believe it. Cliff Lee is back! Unbelievable. Unthinkable. On the whole, RAJ has gotten all the toys he wanted and has paid less than market value. It’s a salute to him, to the fans (for filling the park), to the manager, to the management of the team, to the other players and even to the atmosphere of the ballpark itself. It’s every force in the baseball universe working in tandem for the benefit of the Phillies. If this isn’t offseason baseball heaven, I don’t know what is.

    And, oh yeah, it’s looking pretty smart now that they let Werth go, leave money available to get Lee and, in essence, will roughly swap picks with the Nationals. So we didn’t really even get screwed with draft picks.

    In conclusion . . . . Wow!

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  46. I think this signing could change plans for the OF. By signing Lee, the Phils should be better in 2011 than they were in 2010 even after losing Werth and possibly trading Blanton, no matter who plays RF (This statement is supported by a WAR analysis of the relevant players over the last three years.). For this reason, I would give Brown every chance to be the starting RF in 2011. If he is half as effective as Heyward or Stanton was in 2010, the Phils should be at least two wins better in 2011 than they were in 2010. There is no longer a need to sign a somewhat expensive FA like Ordonez.

    Even though Ibanez is expensive, I would not trade him. We already have lost one OF; so, we shouldn’t lose another. Ibanez can still hit; and his contract makes him difficult to trade without eating most of the contract.

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  47. Okay, the moves I expect this signing to cause are as follows:

    1. Get rid of Joe Blanton – he’s an expensive luxury as a #5 guy, but, truly, he should have value as he is not a terrible pitcher. I think they will find a taker, but the team may have to eat about $3 million. Whatever. Pay some of his salary and clear him off the roster.

    2. Unless he really is over his head, Dom Brown should start the year in the majors in a platoon with Ben Francisco. Because most starters are righty, Brown will get plenty of ABs. Francisco can also spell Ibanez in left too.

    3. Notwithstanding what I just said, the team should troll for an extra outfielder. You know what? Someone just might take a nice little discount just to be on this team, as Burrell just did with the Giants. If the team can get a productive additional righty bat for $1-2 million, they should do it. Andruw Jones and a few other guys might be interesting.

    4. They need to re-sign Durbin if they can dump Blanton. You read that right. Once in a while the starters are going to screw up. On those days, they are going to need a solid and dependable guy to pitch a couple of innings. Right now, there are no multiple inning relievers on this team – everybody else is a one inning guy or a situational reliever. Honestly, I think Kendrick might be able to do this job if Durbin is not signed as Kendrick throws much harder out of the pen than he does as a starter (in 2009, he was between 92-94 out of the pen in September; I was shocked). Still, Durbin is the best option.

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  48. Don’t see the Phillies paying Durbin $2M per season to be the long man out of the pen. What Lee’s signing does is open up bullpen spots for a few of the farm guys since they no doubt are in good shape with some combination of Reyes, Baez, Madson, Contreras, and Lidge from the 7th inning on. With 5 starters and those 5 relievers, that leaves 3 spots open for guys like Bastardo, Mathieson, De Fratus, Schwim, etc. to win in ST.

    Also, not to rain on the Lee parade, but everyone is making the assumption that Blanton is the guy who will be gone but I wouldn’t be surprised if it is Oswalt who gets dealt instead. His the better pitcher and only has 1 year left on his deal which is also very attractive for a certaion team who missed on Lee. I could easily see a deal with the Rangers that would return Oswalt to Texas and net the Phillies a good outfielder. At different points, there were rumors were that the Rangers were shopping Michael Young!!!

    It fits the pattern of the original Lee/Halladay by trading a short-term ace for a long-term one while making the money a wash.

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  50. As an older Phillies fan, to sit and here and watch first Halladay, who wanted to play in Philly and nowhere else, and now Lee give up many millions to play in Philly…. It just shows how valuable Rollins, Utley, and Howard are at defining what goes on in the clubhouse and what it takes to win. the vetrean players all agree this is the best clubhouse anywhere and it comes from those three. Ruben, thanks for bringing us XMas a few weeks early. People, please stop looking for the Phils to bring in another RF now. I think its safe to say that the RF will come from internal (“cheap”) now. I assume Blanton will go for a reliever and a backup OF/Ute now but we’ll see. Absolutely an amazing occurrence!!

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  52. Also, I expect the Phils will look to swap one of their three minor league stud pitchers and one of their good CFs for someone’s minor league stud SS and 3B at some point this year. The Phils will resign Rollins if he has a good year but if he doesn’t, they’ll need to find one and there really aren’t usually good FA options at SS and the Phils are just too thin at those two positions. I agree that the Phils could end up trading Oswalt instead of Blanton but I don’t think so. Its a great day….

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  53. This thing is not really a break from the site tradition, because there is loss of a draft choice involved. And , from above , the 1st Philly draft choice is #34 not #38 as Werth is the top rated UFA and the 1st round is 33 picks long.
    Also, Have Oswalt as 32 now, and not as 36 in ’11.
    Also , Lee took less money only theoretically, as the per year average 24 million per (5 years for 120 million) and if one assumes the vesting option is for 24 million also that takes it to 144 million for 6 years if the easy vesting is reached . Salisbury reports Yankees offer was (with a vested 7th year) as 7 years for 148 million. So, the Yankees offer is more only if Lee decides he does not want to pitch at age 39 in the 7th year , or, if he does, he can not make more than 4 million dollars.
    Both Yankees and Rangers offers reported at 138 million over 6 years, and the Rangers add a vested (with unknown conditions) 7th year to bring it to reported 7 year 161 million. So, it seems Philly clearly offered the most over 6 years, and the rest is in unknown vesting options, so it is not at all clear that Lee took less or that Philly paid less.
    Those that assume Lee took less money might need to practice at mathematics and since mathematics is some’s only method of player evaluation, no wonder you don’t know who the better players are. Especially when y0u add up WAR scores as guaranteed victories regardless of who plays in the field.

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  54. I’m going to be the first person to mildly dissent. Well, not dissent; if it were my decision, I would have pulled the trigger on the signing as well, I’m excited to see Lee back in Philadelphia, and I think they have a better chance to win next year and maybe in 2012. But.

    I still hate long, expensive contracts to starting pitchers, even if slightly below market. Moreover, the Phillies now have a huge number of eggs in a few very big (and aging) baskets. They have also decreased their flexibility to add a quality replacement position player for the next few years.

    In 2013 they have 80 million dollars committed to 4 players who will be 36, 34, 34 and 33.

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  57. Also, Oswalts salary will optionally have around 8 million paid by Astros, so forget the out there trade speculation on that regard. Also, don’t see any of the top 4 going.
    Projected payroll now at 160 million per reports. Blanton might be moved for half salary per reports so that knocks off 4 million and they can move Ibanez (don’t give me the no-trade thing) could be moved for all but 4 million ( as compared to the 5 million plus most DH’s are going for. So 8 million from Astros on Oswalt and 8 million from Blanton and Ibanez deals takes it down to 144 million, about less than 5 million more than last season, if you include the “dead money”.

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  58. Every year we think that there is no payroll flexibility and then something like this happens. I’ll worry about future years when I have all of the information.

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  59. I have also seen the #38 thing printed on Axisa blog and maybe they passed that along. If the original player ratings were wrong and Werth is not the highest rated by Elias then that’s right , but the rules have always been that the player with the highest Elias rating gets the 1st supplemental pick for the team he leaves.

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  60. So I must pay homage to RAJ I killed him for sending Lee to Seattle. I bow down before him. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah (or anything else you might celebrate this time of year) to us all.

    We’ll still need offense and we still need some Right Handed Pop but now he has multiple options to get that done. And I agree you now have the luxury to start the season with a Platoon in RF.

    Pitchers and cathers report when…

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  61. Marfis, are you clear on those rules? Wikipedia says its inverse standings that determine the order, first for Type A free agents and then for Type B. That jives with the order given by Baseball America.

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  62. Even though the Phils lost their first-round pick because of this deal, they have managed to find value in the lower rounds. I guess they do this by overslotting, or paying more than a lower pick usually gets in order to lure guys away from a college commitment or another sport (which is why they fell to the later rounds in the first place)? Anyway, Brown and Singleton came from the 20th and 8th rounds respectively and I think Cossart and Colvin were chosen in the lower rounds as well.

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  63. Couple ways to see that Lee trade. Why did they do it in the first place? And also, what of the prospects we shipped in the Oswalt deal? That deal never happens if we keep Lee…

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  64. Truly exciting. Looks like Sox backing off Nlanton deal. They just wanted to make sure Lee didn’t become a Yankee.

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  65. Just looked again on Cot’s Baseball Contracts under their transactions glossary and they still have it as based upon the player with the highest Elias rating gets the edge, the only way I see it as different is if the Players Association and MLB made a recent tweak to the rules in the interest of “fairness” and Cot’s doesn’t have it yet. I have also not seen any change to the highest rated Elias player thing on MLBTR, so I’ll keep thinking that for now.

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  66. Rumors of Blanton to RSox. Felix Doubront, anyone? (Josh Bard out of the question.)

    How about McDonald or Kalish for the OF? I figure that’s the level we might get to unload Joe.

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  68. OK. Here’s my suggestion for the team photographer:
    Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt and Lee in the front row; the rest of the team behind them looking like they’re heading to the beach.
    It will be fun.

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  69. I expect RA to dumpster dive for the RH OF bats not signed by late January and pick up one for one year under a mil. Or get a young guy for Blanton. I think Phils like Ibanez and expect a good year from him in 2011. They may not trade him.

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  70. Thought Boston had 5 plus starters. Felix Dubront is a top prospect LHP, also Kalish is well regarded and looks as a top OF reserve for them, sceptical on them. Darnell McDonald, yeah, if he isn’t 6 year minor league FA or something, older than some, older brother of Darin McDonald, once a subject on here.

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  71. Doubront is young (23), around 1.3 minor league WHIP, Ks 7.7/9, almost all as a starter, decent debut for Boston last year, 1.5 WHIP, 23 Ks in 25 IP.

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  73. I think Doubront is more like a Vance Worley level. Not a top prospect by any strict definition, but a good chance of being a decent major leaguer. But I agree that may be asking too much. Same with Kalish. But that is where I would start. McDonald had a decent year with the bat last year, is RH, and plays RF and CF. But he looks like a temp role player at best.

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  74. General point: With the added payroll, Phils will be more motivated to fill in with young guys, who should now get their opportunities. We could see DeFratus, Mathieson, maybe even Schwimer, Stutes, or Zagurski in Philly next year (depending on who is having good years), in addition to Bastardo, who I think makes it out of ST. Starting pitcher depth has to come from Carpenter (after Worley/Kendrick), but someone like Hyatt could surprise. The latter is an area of concern. I expect Phils to dumpster dive for a cheap starter among league leftovers in late January.

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  75. DD – Completely agree about the young players. The fact is with Lee we theoretically need less offense and we might have subtracted 50 innings from the bullpen. I think we can fill in the roster with internal options like Mathieson and even Mayberry. I still might add another right handed bat for competition, but this might also be a situation where we wait until mid-season to see how Brown and Francisco and Ibanez are doing to see if we actually need to spend some money on another player.

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  76. Bullpen right now looks like Lidge, Madson, Bastardo, Contreras, Reyes, Bonine, Baez. Bonine and Baez could really get pushed in Spring Training and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Phils cut Baez out of camp. Looks like a solid group if and when they are joined by Mathieson, DeFratus etc. Mathieson I think if he isn’t ready by now will never be ready. DeFratus I’d like to see get a couple months in AAA before he comes up.

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  77. I think Mathieson is ready. He just needs an extended chance and it might be good for him to break in as the last guy in the bullpen for a month or two before moving into a later inning role.

    As Keith Laws keeps saying – there are only so many bullets in his arm. Might as well use them in the majors as he has proven all he can in AAA.

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  80. I’ve said this elsewhere, but I feel like the move the Phillies may end up making is a trade of Lidge. He gets paid more than Blanton, but has more value because he’s a closer and because he’s coming into the last year of his contract (though I’m not exactly sure how that option works). Amaro has spoken in the past about the Phillies need to get younger, and the bullpen is the one place where they have some prospects that look close to ready. Madson has the stuff to be a closer, and though his past results in the role have been mixed, you could argue that there’s a lot of psychological difference between being thrust into that role due to injury/ineffectiveness and being handed it out of Spring Training. I see Contreras taking over the 8th inning role, Bastardo being the primary lefty, and some combination of Mathieson and/or DeFratus/Worley/Baez/maybe Durbin working the middle innings. Sure, that bullpen looks weaker on paper, but Lidge has historically alternated between strong and shaky seasons, so it makes sense to trade him after a strong one. Maybe he brings you back salary relief + a right-handed bat. Then Amaro can take his time on Blanton, maybe see what his market looks like closer to ST.

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  81. I am essentially ambivalent on the Lee signing. I cared only slightly more for the Oswalt trade.

    My main concern for this team has been primarily hitting. We can’t hit the ball. We lost in the playoffs because of that. Utley has began to show himself as injury prone, I essentially don’t trust Rollins, Ryan Howard turns himself into a joke, and Ibanez shouldn’t be on a team this good. That leaves my lineup 1. Victorino 2. Polanco 3. Ruiz 4. ???? And I don’t at all believe Victorino is a lead off hitter.

    After hitting, I worry about our closer position. The only guy in the bullpen I like is Madson. There’s a couple of guys who are good, and Madson is not someone I want in the 9th, but I mean look at that – HUGE holes on our team. And just like at the trade deadline, RAJ is throwing in another starting pitcher instead of addressing the real issues. So we will lose more games next year 1-0! Hooray!! And scrub pitchers will pitch 2 hit complete game shutouts against us again!!

    We need hitting. We need a turnover at LEAST at shortstop a hell of a lot sooner than people are pretending. I’m still waiting for a guy at third base who will be there for five years or more (I love Polanco). Ryan Howard is continually looking like he’s NOT the guy. I mean, you can’t cover these flaws up with an excess of pitching.

    Note: I wouldn’t have wanted them to sign Werth either. But they need to acquire some talent in the hitting department. I know it isn’t easy to do, but they need to.

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  82. The Phils do not get the first pick in the compensation round. Comp picks are not based on rating of free agents. Rather, they follow the the actual draft order. Type A free agents are first, then Type B, so no team with a comp pick related to a Type B free agent will rank ahead of the Phils. The Phils, since they have the last pick in the draft, will have the last pick in the comp round for teams that lost a Type A free agent.

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  83. Twitter conversation between Logan Morrison and Jarred Cossart is hilarious:

    Morrison:
    Can I tell you how excited I am to face R2C2?! *Breaking News* Logan Morrison goes hitless vs Phillies until his 30th bday @MLB

    Cosart:

    @LoMoMarlins haha at least you get to hit against them and not be the guy trying to take one of there jobs lol

    Morrison:
    Good point. Forget renting in Lehigh Valley you may want 2 buy

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  85. If that jive about compensatory picks being alotted in reverse order of the standings is true it would be the first time it was ever done that way. The transactions glossary on Cot’s Baseball Contracts states it done by highest Elias rated player gets the highest compensatory pick and MLBTR has stated that also in articles this offseason, and I have seen nothing on MLBTR that states this has changed in the interim.

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  86. 1. How can anyone be ambivalent about this?

    2. Why are people wanting to trade Oswalt?

    3. Blanton is probably not going to Boston-they don’t need him, nor will they give a top prospect for Blanton.

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  87. The entry on wikipedia indicates the compensation picks are done by reverse order, but I really didnt think that was how it went. I know the Elias rankings are used to determine which team gets which pick in the event a team signs two Type A free agents.

    I guess the easiest way to determine this is just to look at the compensation round for the 2010 draft and check the order.

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  89. Upon further review, went and actually looked at the Baseball America article it is clear that if a team signs multiple choices it is based upon the highest Elias rating, but they are firm on the compensatory picks being in reverse order of finish like the draft, with the exception of if a team gets more than one supplemental in a round all teams must pick first before a team gets the 2nd in that round. I guess that kind of makes sense, but it should be the other way, I say. So,in that system the big haul for Werth might (in the likely event all remaining compensable free agents switch teams) would be the 43rd pick and the 70-th pick (like that). Better than nothing, I guess. If Lee would have returned to Rangers the first would have been one higher(likely 42nd) so maybe that’s a small penalty added on.

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  90. Catch, I can see Blanton being traded for a RH bat who can play CF but only if they get that. I view Kendrick and Worley as the possible long men in the bullpen and spot starters. Another benefit is that we can get that RH bat for much cheaper than before on a short term deal because of our pitching staff and team. Great job by RAJ getting Lee back and having too much young talent is a desirable problem.

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  91. Oswalt, if they took off the 3 1/2 million he made last year in Astro money would have 8 million left to take of this season in Astro money. If not , they can take off all 11 1/2 million this season, or like figures , So from Oswalt’s 16 million scheduled he might cost as 4 1/2 to 8 million. It could be that those savings are not transferable to another team. I believe Swisher makes 10 million a year. Francisco might make a couple million at best. At best, the proposed trade is revenue neutral, and would probably cost Philly more to pull it off.

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  92. You can’t be ambivalent about this deal. While the offensive concerns are warranted they don’t need to panic. More patience at the plate from Howard and Rollins should do the trick. There are a select group of guys on this team that just need to walk more and strike out less and they should be back to leading the league in runs scored.

    With R2C2 the pressure on the opposing teams pitchers from night to night will be immense. As a hitter you need to adjust your approach accordingly.

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  93. Here’s how inunderstand the rule.

    1. For type A FA the team gets the signing teams 1st round pick if pick not 1-15. This does not include picks for unsigned players from the previous year. If pick is 1-15 the second round pick is used.

    2. After the first round compensation picks for type A FA going reverse order followed by type B picks in reverse order.

    The Elias ranking is only used to determine the pecking order of which team gets the higher pick when a team signs multiple type A or multiple type B FAs.

    Make sense?

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  94. I have to laugh out loud at people not liking this deal. Are you insane? This is the pitching staff of a lifetime and, more importantly, you have 2 of these great pitchers locked up for at least another 4 years and the youngest guy, who loves playing for the Phillies will want to re-up too.

    They can now use the excess talent on the farm to fill holes. STOP WORRYING. This is baseball heaven.

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  95. One adjunct to the rule is as follows.

    If a team receives compensation multiple type A’s or multiple type B’s their sandwich picks are not consecutive. One sandwich pick per team for type A in reverse order then second type A’s in reverse order and so on. Then type Bs sandwich picks the same way. Here is a nicerecent list with some of the deal factored in:

    http://riveraveblues.com/2011-draft-order/

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  96. Bull pen, who needs a bull pen, LOL. I do think they need another RH stick in the OF, but I’m sure RAJ knows what he is doing.

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  97. I just saw my baseball team fail to be three-time World Champions because of a lack of hitting. And in both offseasons (so far) I’ve seen them add more pitching to remedy that problem. It’s very worrisome. Cliff Lee didn’t fail to bring us the 09 Championship, it was the outrageous lack of hitting. And Roy Halladay and the rest of H20 didn’t fail us in the playoffs, it was the IMMENSE lack of hitting.

    So this postseason, we’ll end up discussing who to pitch in game 1 so they can pitch game 5 of the crucial NLDS, which we will probably lose.

    I sat through enough Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, even Jamie Moyer gems last year that were way too close for comfort and ended with the Phillies up one run (1-0) or down one run (0-1) or just losing 2-1 or 3-1 with a 2 Out 9 Inning Comeback not enough. The Phillies have a substantial problem with hitting, and 2010 was not an improvement over 2009 in that department. Declining numbers for our superstars being buffeted or masked by overreaching numbers by the lesser players on the team is something other people can gloss over, but I’m well aware that Carlos Ruiz and Polanco helped carry this team. That’s not the way our money is allocated.

    While I am very glad to see a GM who cares for the team, and is allowed to spend the big money, and to see Philadelphia as a desirable place to come to for the first time in any sport outside of Hockey, I am not impressed. Cliff Lee coming back is a wonderful move that doesn’t improve our team a lick. We lost a hell of a lot more games by being unable to score than by losing a high-scoring contest. And if we ever did lose a high-scoring contest, it was in the 9th inning, well out of the reach of our starting pitcher’s efforts.

    The money isn’t being spent right. It’s either already spent on players who aren’t performing, or being spent on pitchers that, while no one can deny the impact they have on a team, only load up talent at a position the Phillies were, in my opinion, fine with. I don’t think we even needed Oswalt (though for the price we got him at, who would turn that trade down?)

    I saw Chase-Howard-Werth go 0-3 with a quick pop up and two strikeouts way too often last year to not be concerned, and I am amazed that the addition of Cliff Lee is enough to placate the fans of Philadelphia.

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  98. Boston doesn’t want Blanton. If anything, Theo showed (false) interest in Blanton to help RAJ conjure up a market for him. Looks like Theo & Ruben have formed a strategic alliance to counter the buying power of the Yankees. Seems to be working…

    There is a market for Blanton, but forget about dumping him for Kalish. Boston fans didn’t want to include him in trade discussions for Werth last year. He’s one of their most legit and MLB-ready prospects. Perhaps the addition of Crawford makes Kalish expendable, but the Gonzalez trade depleted their system and they’re not going to dump a top prospect for an overpriced, league average “innings eater” when pitching depth is their biggest strength.

    What I’d try to do is package Blanton with prospects for an elite, right-handed hitting corner outfielder…or dump him & use the money to sign Magglio for a year or two.

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  99. I am sure Kalish could be acquired for Blanton and some marginal prospects. I am positive they’d take Blanton and Valle, but I have seen the Phillies trade too many catchers to want to part with him.

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  100. Dr. Steve –

    Who won the World Series? The SF Giants. How did they do it? Pitching. Now the Phils have the best rotation. Nobody in that SF line-up strikes fear in people. Their pitching won it. The Phillies line-up is better then what happened in 2010. The whole infield was hurt. You know there is trouble when Wilson Valdez gets 333 abs. I’m not saying Rollins and Howard will duplicate their MVP years but I do believe we should see an improvement. Same with Utley. The bullpen I’m not worried about because you should see a lot of quality starts this year.

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  101. Reading a few postings, if I didn’t know better I’d think this team couldn’t hit. Honestly, they can hit pretty well and won 97 games last year. 97!! Victorino had a down year after hitting exactly the same for three years in a row. It looked like he was swinging for homers a bit too much. Rollins was basically hurt all year. Utley and Howard absolutely looked like they came back from their injuries too soon. Howard couldn’t even keep his back foot down after he came back. He became a totally different hitter with much less power. He did however learn how to go to left against a lefty which should help him this year. Utley will bounce back just fine as will Howard. I’m not as sure about Jimmy but his glove is so good, we can still handle it. The 4 Aces will give us a very good chance to win every day. Trade Lidge? There’s a 0% chance of thta happening right now. He’s been there and done that and I want him right where he is as we go for the pennant. I wouldn’t even be surprised if they extend him if he accepts less money. What closer wouldn’t want to pitch for the Phillies for the next several years?

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  102. May I be the 1st to suggest on this site that after trading Ibanez and Blanton, one year of a severely discounted Manny Ramirez would look pretty good in between Utley and Howard?? I see a Miami Heat factor here where players may see this as their shot at a ring and sign for less. Manny has zero other options and a huge fan in Manuel at the helm. That would just pump the vibe up to an even higher level!

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  103. Lidge will not be here in 2012. That’s one place where they will save money in 2012 and, besides, he’s losing his mojo in a hurry. Expect Madson to be the closer – he’s not perfect, but he’ll be fine.

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  104. I want no part of Swisher. Go look at his last two postseason and you’ll realize he is just a nice guy to have during the regular season. Doesn’t show up in the postseason.

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  105. I would look at Herndon or Worley as a long reliever rather than paying Durbin $2M. I think the Phils hope Baez has a strong spring so they can trade him to another team and open up a cheaper option in the bullpen with one of our prospects.

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  106. “This is the pitching staff of a lifetime and, more importantly, you have 2 of these great pitchers locked up for at least another 4 years and the youngest guy, who loves playing for the Phillies will want to re-up too.”

    First of all, let me say I don’t join in the more extreme posts above bashing the team’s offense, which is not what it used to be but is still well above average. And as I said I would have OKed the deal myself if I was in charge.

    But the “locked up for 4 years part” – I see that as potentially a bug, not a feature. How likely is it that both of these guys are going to be as good 4 years from now? Not likely IMO. It would be interesting to do a study of starters in the 30-33 yo range who were top 10 starters, and see if they were still top 10 starters 4 years down the road. My guess is that, more often than not, they aren’t.

    And the young guy? He may want to stay, but even if he agrees to a discount, he’s getting (assuming he stays at his current level) probably 5/80 or thereabouts. Do you think the Lee contract makes it more or less likely that the Phillies will agree to that?

    Look, for 2011 adding Lee is fantastic with little downside (assuming they don’t do a crazy salary dump). For 2012, there is a downside (less chance of signing a star level FA to replace Ibanez, or some other salary adding upgrade) but still on balance a good move. Beyond that … maybe. Too many variables to be sure, but it is risky. As ALWAYS when signing FA pitchers to long contracts.

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  107. I would add that, since there ALREADY is a good chance that the Phillies will have a down period in 2013-2015, given the age profile of their team, it makes sense to maximize their chance of winning now, and the Lee deal does that.

    But I would say this: I don’t think you can identify ANY starting pitcher of whom you could say (ex ante) with any degree of confidence that he would be worth 20 million dollars per year for a year 3 or 4 years in the future.

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  108. I don’t see this team aging. I think the owners will continue to turn the team over in the future and stay atop the league. There has been an ownership coup, things are very different. Our farm system is stocked with talent and our drafting and scouting is top notch. There won’t be a decrease, we will be perennial post season participants.

    I am south on our offense, but this whole “window” talk is nonsense. The only window is for Utley and Howard, and we can obviously win without them.

    The Phillies aren’t going anywhere in terms of competitiveness, it’s how far they go that’s the issue – I won’t settle for less than a World Series Ring and I fully believe our offense isn’t good enough.

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  109. Dr. Steve,

    I don’t think that is a realistic expectation. Even in the abstract, and setting aside the Yankees with their unlimited budget & maybe the Sox with their almost unlimited budget, there is no such thing in post FA baseball as a team that is a legitimate WS threat every season with no down periods.

    But looking at these Phillies in particular. I have enough faith in the system that I expect we will see replacements for Howard/Utley et. al. eventually (but how often does even the best system produce a Rollins/Ultley/Howard/Hamels in such a short time period? Not often). But looking very specifically at 2013-2015 … where do you expect those position players to come from? FA or trades, maybe, but for the most part NOT the minor league system, which is awash in potential starting pitchers, but a bit thin in terms of position players. The only position players in the minor league system with more than a 5% chance of being major league stars are Brown and Singleton.

    And – “not aging?” I mean, I guess if you are one of the people on this site who believe in Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and players routinely retaining their full value into their mid to late thirties, then maybe they aren’t aging. But for the rest of us:

    For 2011:
    Position players: 38*, 35, 32, 32, 32, 31, 29, ??
    Starting pitchers: 33*, 33, 31, 30, 27

    *I’m being generous; Halladay turns 34 in mid May, and Ibanez 39 at the beginning of June.

    That’s not ancient but it’s old. It’s okay for 2011 and 2012, probably, but right around 2013 is when you can expect to see a lot of these guys to start rapid declines. Look at Halladay’s best comps on baseballreference.com, for example. Age 36 numbers (3 years from now) are not pretty.

    Now, all that said, if a lot of things break right for them, they COULD contend in 2013-2015. But IMO it’s at least as likely that they won’t.

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  110. One point I see the Phils drafting even more toolsy prospects. It will take a lot to crack this lineup for a long time. Average need not apply.

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  111. Sorry Dr. Steve but not sure how you determine that they can obviously win without Utley/Howard since you just got done expounding on how their lack of offense in 2010 cost the Phillies another WS ring.

    I would suggest that the purpose of putting together a team like the Phillies is to get to the playoffs where anything can happen in a 7 game series. Didn’t the Rangers have a good enough offense? Yet they somehow also managed to lose to those Giants.

    The Phillies offense struggled last year mostly due to key guys having significant injuries through the season but they actually scored 1 more run in their series than the Giants. They happened to lose 3 1-run games in a closely contested series where the Giants got a few extra key hits. Would Cliff Lee starting game 4 instead of Joe Blanton have made a difference in that 6-5 loss?

    If you look at the Phillies regular 8, all but Ruiz and to an extent Werth had seasons that were below their career norms. It’s not wishful thinking to expect that a few of those guys will bounce back to post their normal numbers in 2011.

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  114. I think we can win without Utley and Howard because of their poor performance.

    Most of a teams power comes from five players. The Phillies have Brown and Singleton coming up, and Ruiz, Victorino, (if he’s here), and one free agent, or just a resurging Howard or Utley. We have shown a willingness to sign players and become a desirable place to play. Plus we pull off some big deals.

    We may end up missing the playoffs a year or two, but this is a team built to win and an ownership that will do anything to stay competitive. To think our team fades because a few players age is nonsense.

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  116. Btw, if the Brewers were to make a trade with the Phillies, I believe it would be the first time they made a trade together since 1991.

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  117. Utley did have a poor performance for him based on his career norms but I agree that some are overreacting to a season where he had a significant injury in which he probably returned a bit before he was fully healthly. I see no reason he wont return to his usual .900 range.

    Same with Ryan Howard and his ankle injury and Polanco’s elbow. My biggest concern is the reoccurring leg injuries for Rollins. Of their core position players, he appears to be the one who’s starting to fade physically. Fortunately, he’s also the one with the shortest contract.

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  121. Joe Blanton and a few bucks for Lorenzo Cain would be a great deal. I’d even throw in a mid range prospect for him (not top 20, not close to big league ready)

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  123. i like cliff lee im happy we inked that bad mofo up now we should trade cosart valle blanton and singleton to boston for lester papelbon and ellsbury then we’d be’d stacked boston would be some mother f*cking idiots lets go phil dogs baby and i also wish we had more black people in the system there better then the other guys

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  125. There’s gotta be a market for Blanton because he is a decent middle of the rotation guy for a team on the fringe of the playoffs like us in 08. There’s also not a lot of other choices out there and his contract is better than what he’d get on the market. We won’t net any big time prospects, I’d expect around one above average prospect, one average prospect and maybe a player to be named later.

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  126. Why would the Brewers want to trade a cheap, young OFer for Joe Blanton and his $16M? They just traded Lawrie for Marcum because he is a cheap starter.

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  127. Brewers said they’d listen to offers for Cain, especially a starter. They have Braun, Hart and 25 year CF Gomez. Heck of an upside. Maybe Blanton and Gillies? Put Vic in RF until Brown is ready.

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  129. nah, freedom of speech is never a bad thing, but stupidity is…

    PsuJoe, I don’t doubt the Brewers would be interested in trading for a starter but I don’t think it would be a back of the rotation guy making 8M for the next 2 years. They are already paying Randy Wolf for that honor.

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  130. I definitely think Blanton has value, but what leverage do the Phillies have when teams know he needs to be unloaded? I don’t think the Phillies need an OF with the long list ready to step in. I am also a fan of keeping Ibanez as insurance in the 5 hole this season even though the paycheck high. Does anyone know about other teams prospects at SS, 3rd, and C? A package of Blanton and Harold Garcia may get a player at 3B or C who is ready in 2012. You caught lighting in a bottle with Valdez last year. Galvis is my call up if Rollins goes down this year. Unless there is a significant upgrade on the major league roster, I would trade Blanton for prospects.

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  132. I wanted the Phillies to get another starter since I do not trust Kendrick for a full season and likely someone will lose time with an injury. I wanted Phils to get James Shields who has an awesome set of 1 year contracts, all at reasonable prices. But I will agree that Lee is better!

    Eating money for Ibanez or Blanton seems to defeat the purpose of trading them. Both are above average players making only slightly more than they are worth. OF is already depleted. I guess if we could ‘trade’ Ibanez for Ordonez that would make sense; but I doubt anyone takes on all of Ibanez’s salary. Eating Blanton money also seems pointless. Blanton at $6M (if eating only $4M total) is a pretty good deal and he is still young/in his prime. Why wouldn’t the Phillies just keep him at that price?

    Trading Kendrick makes much more sense. He is still controllable, cheap, and proven. The return would likely be uneventful but I would target a young backup catcher type like Cervelli (a Marson clone). Maybe throw in Rizzotti to get someone with some actual talent (Wilson Ramos e.g. would be a wish list).

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  133. Not related to Blantan, but a question about a young prospects worth. The Rangers have some highly ranked youbg SS in the AZL and NOR league. They aren’t going anywhere with Andrus at 22 doing well in the majors. Too early for them anyway. What would it take to get a prospect like those?

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  135. I sort of figured the deal with Blanton would be: Phils will trade him to you for basically nothing if you pay all of his salary, *or* Phils will pay half his salary and you give us some mid-level prospects. Isn’t that the way these deals usually work? I’d have no problem with letting Heavy B go for basically nothing *if* that’s what it takes to make room for Lee. Of course, prospects would be nice.

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  136. The Nats wouldnt trade Ramos, maybe Flores but he is injury prone. I think the RAJ should trade Blanton and Ibañez to the Rays for B.J. Upton. He was reportedly on the block earlier this year and you never know with RAJ.
    Blanton for Carlos Gomez is highly unlikely because they just traded for him last offseason and he is under team control so that makes no sense.

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  137. This is a great deal to put us in Prime position to win it all the next two years. Everyone should applaud RAJ for showing that he can not only admit to a mistake, but atone for it as well. We are very lucky to be in the position that we are.

    Am I in the minority thinking Gillies will have a very good rebound year next year, play half a year in 2012 and then possibly be brought up and become our starting leftfielder in 2013? Hopefully coming next will be one of the other 5tool guys to play center and we have an outfield to stay for many years.

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  139. Icyman I think we would also have to throw in valdes, hoover and baez as well as a stud reliever like chance chapman to get it done. What we would be giving them 6 for 1.

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  141. PSUJoe, is it that difficult to go from Centre Field to Left Field?

    I think Gillies will have a good year. In fact I think all three of the Lee Prospects will have a good year. I think Aumount will eventually be bullpen help or trade bait and nothing more on this team, and end up being the worst of the trio.

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  142. Dr Steve,

    No, but why waste Gillies speed in LF at CB park? No power for a LF either. I’d go Gillies CF, Brown RF, LF Singleton if ready(probably not) so go FA until Singleton is ready. Imagine Singleton, Gillies and Brown.

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  143. If there’s no room for him at CF, then don’t put him there. I have no problem with Singleton Gillies Brown.

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  144. With Lee, Reyes, and Martinez in don’t the Phils have to release someon from the 40 man? I know Flande and Sanchez already happened. Could this be the end of the Brian Bocock era?

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  145. phuturephillies–this thread has gone CRAZY! Please lock it now. I know you meant the best, but this community can’t be trusted to discuss the big league team. Please, return things to normal–I think those of us who actually care about the subject matter at hand were JUST ABOUT to get into a SPIRITED argument about whether Colvin/Cosart/May should be prospect #3. Sorry WIP troglodytes, you’ll start caring about those names in a couple of years–perhaps you should revisit the debate then, by which time we’ll already have formed full (if perhaps misguided) opinions.

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  146. PS–I propose a new rule: misspell a major prospect’s name by one letter = a warning. Misspell a major prospect’s name twice or by more than one letter = banishment. FYI: It’s called google–it takes less than a second to check your spelling. It shows a lack of respect to the people involved and the subject we’re trying to treat seriously when you don’t bother to even to confirm that you’ve got it right. Trust me–no one takes you seriously when you spell it “Blantan”–I’m looking at you, psujoe.

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  147. Lol, it’s easy to misspell names typing with one finger on a phone designed for petite people. Who cares, get over it.

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  148. A few notes:
    Phillies came up short against the Giants due to the Giants pitching (especially the bullpen); not due to the Phillies offensive shortcomings. Tipping your cap to the Giants pitching staff when credit is due is not disrespectful to the Phillies hitters. Offensive run production puts fans in the seats but good pitching wins pennants. Phillies need to improve their bullpen as well, but I think improvements are possibly found within from Mathieson and others. What good will it be to have 4 pitchers pitching to the 7th inning if the 8th and 9th inning guys falter regularly.

    There is talk of Oswalt leaving after next year; but hamels would be the weak link in the rotation unless he keeps on improving. Having 3 guys in the rotation who limit hitters walks in the manner that Halladay; Oswalt and Lee do will be phenomenal and should have an effect on Hamels and other pitchers. These 3 should impress upon the hitters the importance of taking walks also. Whip and ERA are of greater importance than K’s, and Hamels needs to continue to limit walks due to his tendency (thus far) to give up a few more HR’s than these other 3.

    As a few posters mentioned, there is some concern about putting so much on long term contracts of pitchers who can develop arm problems and Lee has had a few stints on the DL; BUT long term injuries can happen to hitters also, as they did to Howard last year; and it could be worse. These 3 (or 4 including hamels) have as much or more chance of staying healthy than many younger prospects.

    As for the younger pitching prospects: as mentioned, they are a few years away AND if I were them and unless I was an exceptional talent; I would relish the opportunity to pitch a year or two in the bullpen under Halladay and company while showing and learning my ‘stuff’ in the majors. One can never have too much pitching, and one never know’s when an injury could occur to one of the 4 horsemen.

    As for losing Werth; I personally think he will continue to improve for the next couple years and then level off as a .300 hitter with 30+ HR’s and 100-120 RBI’s with 20 steals and 100 plus runs while reducing his K’s to a more respectable level. It seems that he worked on cutting down his swing somewhat and reducing K’s as his doubles increased but his HR’s (and K’s) decreased. He also greatly improved his hitting averae against Righthanded pitching. Keeping him healthy and injury free will be the key to his production. He had the teams best OPS last season, and thus deserved a contract similar to what he got.

    Howard needs to continue to cut down on K’s and maintain other levels of offense while taking a few more walks. One can’t seemingly argue with runs scored and RBI’s produced; but there is room for continued improvement as he has been doing. He’s was upstaged by Werth at times last year and having their strikeouts back to back killed many opportunities.

    Brown/Fransico needs to fill in some of the hole left by Werth. It’s possible that Brown was feeling the pressure of the Werth deal and the time of rest/reflection/preparation will be good. Any kind of a respectable rookie season should result in similar RBI numbers as Werth and a good/great rookie season could put him ahead of those numbers.

    I think Polanco will rebound to a .300 plus hitter with his elbow fixed and although not the prototypical power hitter at 3rd base, his defense and other offensive contributions (few strikeouts) offset offensive power shortcomings.

    I’d vote that they trade Blanton unless they are not confident in Vance Worley being a better or equal starter.
    Has there been any consideration for Magglio Ordonez?

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  149. The Phils did have problems scoring sometimes in 2010, but they still won 97 games despite all the injuries.

    I agree that, as presently constituted, the 2011 Phillies will have even more problems scoring if the returning line-up does not improve. Replacing Werth with some combination of Brown, Francisco and Gload may result in a net loss of some 30 runs scored less runs given up (considering both offense and defense). That loss of runs would be a problem if that were the whole story, but it isn’t.

    The addition of Lee and the presumed loss of Blanton may result in a reduction of some 50 runs given up.

    So, while we will lose offense and some defense with the roster changes, the improved pitching should result in a net team improvement of some 20 runs for the 2011 Phillies. That may be good for a couple of more wins in 2011 (I’m conservatively assuming no offensive improvement by the returning line-up.).

    If you like offense, the 2011 Phils may be less fun to watch than the 2010 Phils, which were less fun to watch than the 2009 Phils . . .

    If you like pitching and wins, the 2011 Phils will do just fine without further significant roster changes.

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  150. Andrew Cleveland Alexander
    Sir if you possess any chill pills now would be a good time to take one or two. This place should be a fun thing. Or or maybe we can have bloggers cut off a finger and send it it for a third mistake.

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  152. That is what we all want but no one ever died of a backup plan.(I think).
    Also had defense to your Christmas wish.

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  153. I think signing Lee means there is a decent chance Cole gets traded in 2012 for prospects or not re-signed when he is a free agent. If Cole has #s that come close to lee.. can the Phils afford 5/100 for Cole?

    Would be interesting.. I think if Cosart and Colvin and the other pitchers are progressing well, it could push the organization to not retain Cole.. Imagine if we can trade him for an elite 2b/ss/3b prospect.. would really fill a huge hole in the organzation

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  154. Would be an interesting decision.. in 2012, in theory Rollins could be gone Shane would be in his last year.. Polanco near end of his deal.. Utley ot getting younger…

    By the all-star break in 2012 we would have some sense how our pitching prospects are doing at AA or AAA (more likely AA)… WOuld be risky trading Cole but would definitely be something to think about…

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  155. RUMORS stated other years with 3 100m+ deals.
    declined to take the biggest offer available to him).

    “It’s the first time since 2006-07 and just the third time in baseball history that three free agents have signed deals worth over $100MM in the same winter. Alfonso Soriano, Barry Zito and Carlos Lee all signed for $100MM-plus in a 2006-07 offseason that stands out as one of the more player-friendly winters in recent history. Six years before that, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez and Mike Hampton signed nine-figure deals within three weeks of one another. ”

    Only the ARod deal was absolutely successful. Caros Lee and four
    not so hot.

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  156. I hope they invite Cosart, Colvin, May, Aumont and Biddle to start at big camp this year. It may sound kind of absurd to have so many low-level prospects there, but can you imagine the impact it would have for them to work near and see Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels? They would get to see what they could become some day if they work hard enough and maybe learn a few tricks of the trade.

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  158. AP reports that the deal is for $11M in 2011, 21.5M in 2012, 25M in 2013-2015, and vesting option of $27.5 in 2016 ($12.5M buyout).

    If those are the numbers, then their payroll isn’t much higher in 2011 than it was in 2010 even if no other deals are made. IF they trade Blanton as expected, their payroll would actually be a wash.

    I don’t think Hamels will be traded for prospects in 2012 as they will make every effort to resign him to a long-term deal with a lower number in 2012 that escalates in future seasons. I also believe he still has one year of arbitration left after 2011 so if he wants to hit the market, they can just offer arbitration for the 2012 season. I think they will try to keep the foursome together through 2012 at which point Oswalt’s contract will expire and hopefully one of the big-3 minor league starters will be ready to join the rotation.

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  159. A few comments and thoughts:

    I agree 100% with Skunky… the effect Lee & Halladay, etc will have on the rest of the minor league pitchers is invaluable…

    I don’t know enough about other teams minor league rosters, but there should be some chance we can trade Blanton and maybe 1 or 2 of our decent prospects for a serious prospect at SS/3B where we need the most help…

    I would not get trade Ibanez… gut feeling he will have a good year. I think most of the starting 8 will be fine as long as they can stay healthy… I am not worried…yet!

    What is teh chance Oswalt will offer a team discount to return to this 4 fearless foursome?

    Or shoudl I say 5 someone?
    http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/12/15/the-phillies-inquired-about-pedro-martinez-last-week/

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  160. A few more thoughts:
    Since Rube is thinking outside the box and looking to make the phillies perennial contenders, they still need to address the line-up problem. While we may need a right handed bat, i feel this issue is overblown because Uncle Charlie is not moving Chase out of the 3 hole or Howard from the clean up spot, so lefty specialist will continue to be deployed in late game situations. I suggest getting a REAL leadoff hitter instead, something that has been missing while our two 5′ 8″ options continually swing for the fences. Call Seattle up, offer Shane Victorino(7.5,9.5) and Joe Blanton(10.5, 10.5) as well as one of the low A pitchers(May or Pettibone) and one of our toolsy OF prospects for Ichiro Suzuki(18,18).
    I know Ichiro is 37, but the money on the big club is a wash, provides Seattle with a gold glove replacement OF and a solid SP to place behind King Felix in a low pressure environment, two prospects with a chance to make the majors, and a favor to a player who has served his time with a team not built to win anytime soon. The Phillies would finally have a legitimate leadoff hitter whose presence on the basepaths takes away the utley/howard shift and whose defense and throwing arm are unmatched. He is capable of playing centerfield, sacrificing by hitting groundballs, and laying down a bunt…which our entire team seems incapable of doing.
    Ichiro
    polanco
    utley
    howard
    rollins
    ibanez
    brown/francisco
    ruiz

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  163. The Bruins shipped out ray bourque, the oilers wayne gretzky, karl malone went to the lakers…Seattle traded Ken Griffey Jr at his request…Ichiro can only block 10 teams each year, so he could always ask to be moved, and they have not fielded a competitive team around him in years, have lost 101 games two of the past three seasons, and only have two years left before he walks away at the end of his deal…after next season they may look to move him anyway to get something in return other than draft picks, and they will not be competitive, even in the inferior al west, by 2012.
    It may seem unlikely, but worth kicking the tires… seattle held onto their top prospects when acquiring Lee from us and picked up a few more from Texas 4 months later…I am only suggesting a team looking to rebuild may think about rewarding a veteran and helping their own future.

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  164. So it ended up:

    Halladay & Lee, plus Gillies, Aumont & Ramirez & $6 Mil Cash

    For

    Kyle Drabek, Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Taylor

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  165. There is now talk that Phillies will hold on to Blanton until they get a deal they like, which may take this right to spring training…or they may not trade him at all if they have to eat too much of the contract… I don’t think they can swallow a 5th starter making $17 Mil (2 yrs). But at least they are saying the right things to try and get the best deal they can… a few more teams have been mentioned as possible trade partners.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/544382-joe-blanton-trade-rumors-updates-on-latest-trade-talk

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  167. The seattle trade is laughable, lets throw in ben francisco and kyle kendrick and get felix hernandez while we are at it. There is a reason why he would only really considered the west coast and that was its proximity to japan, he ain’t coming here but if you would pitch a deal to seattle get ready to include at least one of our top 10 prospects with a victorino.

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  168. There is no need to rush trading Blanton. He doesn’t get paid till Feb/March. The thing about the Lee deal is that he is making just (can’t believe I’m saying just) 11 million in year one. So the Phils can hold off till they get a good deal.

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  169. Anyone find it interesting that year one in Lee’s deal is for 11.0M, the amount the Phillies are getting from the Astros from the Oswalt trade?

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  170. Yeah the back loading of this contract speaks volumes to how significant farm system contributions at the major league level are going to have to be in coming years. Transitioning from Ibanez to Dom Brown will in essence save north of $10M in 2012 and 2013. The transition from Victorino to Gillies (hopefully) will save $8M in 2013 and 2014. The transition from Madson to a DeFratus or Schwimmer will save $4-5M in 2012 and 2013, etc. Some of those guys stepping up will be critical.

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  171. @Nails:
    What is teh chance Oswalt will offer a team discount to return to this 4 fearless foursome?

    What was the chance that Howard would offer salary re-negotiations in order to resign Werth?

    If there is a ‘fearless foursome; they would all be accepting 20 mill salaries like Halladay did. Lee has the worst career whip and opponents batting average of the group and yet gets the highest contract. Since his 22 win season though, his performance is likely equal with the others. I look for Hamels to have a good year and continue dominance that he showed in the second half as he continues to master his pitches. He will likely require a premium contract (and will likely seek it due to Lee’s example).
    The class move would be for Lee to equal Halladay’s generocity and re- sign for 20 million or less which MIGHT allow both the resigning of Hamels and Oswalt. Or wouldn’t it be cool if Lee, Halladay, Oswalt and Howard all went to Mgmnt and re-negotiated for 18-20 M? The number 5 guy and half of the bullpen then still needs to be 405 K rookies and 1-2 million$ guys with 2 solid closers. They need quality relievers in the Bullpen aslo and this importance was revealed in the series against the Giants last year.
    Amauro mentioned the need to develop younger talent; but his drool seems to be leading his wallet; or else he’s trying to please the fans for the heat he took for letting Lee Go. Developing talent and giving them a chance to play CAN BE two different things. It seems they are already committed to Halladay and Lee and that equals about 45 million. I don’t look for them to be able to resign both Hamels and Oswalt.

    And they (He) can’t keep trading young talent away (Carrasco, Gio Gonzalez, Drabek, Happ, Floydd) and expect to have ML ready Pitchers to sub into the rotation to balance the high contracts of the stars.

    They could easily and quickly broach the 200 million mark if they would resign Oswalt who may look for a similar contract as Lee.

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  172. “Anyone find it interesting that year one in Lee’s deal is for 11.0M, the amount the Phillies are getting from the Astros from the Oswalt trade?”

    Thanks ED we couldn’t of done it without you

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  173. AGG…although it would be a “class move” for these guys to renegotiate their contracts, it isn’t going to happen. For one thing, the union would never allow it (there are a number of recent examples of this, most notably AROD before he was traded to New York tried to renegotiate a lesser contract so that he could be traded to Boston and the union wouldn’t allow it) and two, why would they? Nobody held a gun to management’s head to make them offer the contracts. In a sense, they’ve earned it.

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  174. A lot of salaries are going up fir 2011, but is offset to some degree by the departing $20 of Werth, Romero, Moyer and Durbin. Thats not counting Blantons salary if he gets traded. Lidge, Baez and Ibanez free up $25 mil after next year.

    When is the Phils TV contract up? That’s going to bring in huge bucks.

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  176. And that breakdown explains my ambivalence about the Lee contract. Even setting aside ancillary issues such as Rollins (and despite his decline the last couple of years, it’s doubtful that they will be able to replace him with an upgrade, even moreso now), and just focusing on Hamels: I expect that in 2013-2015, Hamels will be better than Lee. And, as the article says, the Phillies likely won’t be able to keep Hamels now.

    Again, I’d still have signed him. But if he doesn’t put them over the top in 2011 and/or 2012 … the contract may not look so good after that.

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  177. Of course IF the payroll keeps going up, those concerns are lessened (but not eliminated). I wouldn’t, however, count on that happening.

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  178. Boston and New York have huge media contracts which makes you think somehow Comcast is a player. Thought perhaps a buyout is coming. Certainly the partners are dying out.

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  179. Larry, I think it’d be a concern if one were absolutely certain they could sign Hamels long term. But if you pass on Cliff Lee you run the risk that Hamels also signs elsewhere, and that leaves you with only Halladay after 2012. As for which pitcher is better, Hamels has been great but his best season in terms of ERA+ is equal to Lee’s three year average. Age projections would favor Hamels, but it only takes an arm injury to negate all that.

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