2011 Reader Top 30, #2

2011 Reader Top 30

In less than surprising news, Domonic Brown took the #1 spot in a rout, so we’ll move on to #2 now and things should get more interesting now. Just a few reminders. If you want to write in someone not listed in the poll, vote for OTHER, and then give your choice in the comment section. Lets just get right to it.

1. Domonic Brown, OF
2.

64 thoughts on “2011 Reader Top 30, #2”

  1. Need to go Cosart here. He’s a special talent. Incredible fastball and breaking stuff when on. I think his upside is greater than that of Singleton (who is probably a ‘safer’ pick) and so I’m going with Cosart. A lot could happen to either guy as they progress, so I’m going with the guy with the most talent, and that’s Cosart for me.

    Like

  2. I took Singleton as the safer pick. Individually Cosart and Colvin I feel are injury risks simply as low A pitchers. But I certainly won’t begrudge anyone who wants to rate either pitcher #2.

    Like

  3. Close call b/w Singleton and Cosart, but I went with Singleton because his ceiling is incredibly high and there are just so many things that can go wrong with a pitcher, especially one with some injury history.

    Like

  4. Agree with others re. Singleton vs. the young pitching. They’re about even talent-wise, but Singleton gets the nod because as a position player he’s more likely to reach his ceiling.

    Like

  5. Singleton for similar reasons. Love Cosart’s stuff, but the injuries are a concern. Singleton’s plate discipline and ability to draw walks makes him much more likely to live up to his potential.

    Like

  6. Singleton #2 because the pitchers all have too much risk at this point. It’s a long way from Lakewood to Philly.

    Like

  8. Cosart. A pitcher with #2 to ace potential is worth more than any 1b. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Cosart jumped to AA after Spring training, because he has shown control while the other young pitchers have not.

    Like

  13. I went with Singleton. Think he has the tools to be a good major leaguer and they are only get better as he is just 19.

    Like

  14. No wrong choices in the 2,3,4 rankings in my opinion.
    I voted Colvin because I have heard he has the most refined breaking stuff. Lots of guys have great fastballs but pitchers need at least one more pitch. Colvin also has the steepest growth curve since he started out badly and by the end of the season was excellent.
    Cosart had more buzz early last season but has injury concerns so I’d put him at 4th.
    I would rank Singleton 3rd since he is stuck as a hitter only. His chances greatly improve if he can become a RF since I could see him as a James Loney type hitter (good avg, moderate power, decent discipline, good fielder) which just will not cut it at 1B. However, Singleton could grow into a Youkilis type of hitter.

    Like

  17. I am with Ken. Worley is there. All he needs now is a chance.

    Note: That Aumont is listed and Worley isn’t I don’t understand. Maybe I don’t understand the rules.

    Like

  18. I went with colvin. I like this site because there are a bunch of good posters who contribute. I think most people who post a lot follow the minors and have pretty well thought out opinions. I think it’s pretty clear who the top four or five prospects are. Why is Jesse biddle or valle an option at number two? Somebodys gonna vote for those guys over colvin cosart or singleton.

    Like

  19. It was between Singleton and Cosart for me. I chose Cosart but it wasn’t easy. As posters above have said, you can’t go wrong with either of these guys. Worley, because of his proximity to that #5 in Philly, got some consideration but I think he tops out as a #4 starter. Colvin is a favorite of mine and will be in my top 5.

    Aumont has slipped significantly on my top 30. I think he’s a 1/2 a season from being moved to the bullpen. If he’s just a bullpen guy then he should drop out of the top 10. I think that’s where he’ll end up and I’m dropping him. May is the starter than I’m predicting will have the best year. He’ll start in Clearwater and will end up in Reading by August. He’s also a top 5 guy for me.

    Like

  20. Gotta go with Colvin over Cosart because of the injury concerns with the latter. I agree that Singleton would be a “safe” pick but I think we’re dealing with so much projection amongst the next few prospects that ceiling plays a big part in how I will rank them. And yes, Cosart may have the highest ceiling of all of the prospects, but “likelihood of reaching ceiling” plays a part too.

    – Jeff

    Like

  21. Bellman
    Agreed . If Aumont isn’t in the bullpen in two months ,it will be a miracle or organizational face saving. Especially with Lee about to become the richest player in baseball.

    Like

  22. Gosh, I hope Singleton is not another James Loney. Loney, to me, has been a huge disappointment.

    Like

  23. Singleton’s first half last year as an 18 yr old was pretty spectacular. The kid batted in the middle of the order all year (once he arrived) and even did enough in the 2nd half. While I realy love the potential of Colvin and Cosart, I think pitchers in A ball have to defer to possible major league regulars with a bat, although Singleton’s 2nd half has left us nervous.

    Like

  24. Singleton’s batting average fell off in the second half, but he was still showing power and his plate discipline was very good. His first half was really unsustainable. I’m not nervous about Singleton’s production at all. We just have to remember that there will be slumps and growing pains for all of these guys.

    Like

  25. I voted Singleton. After Brown, I think the Phillies have a bunch of guys in the same vicinity of each other (ceilings of positional starters someday and pitchers with top 3 starting ability). Someone is bound to be left off the list above at this early stage. It’ll all work out okay. This system is deeper than I ever recall it.

    Anyway, my 3-5 will include the 3 pitchers (May, Colvin, Cosart). And my guess is that I will rank them differently month-to-month all year long. They’re all good, and have been dominant at times.

    And I’m happy we have Worley in the system, but if his ceiling is at best a #3, so why would you rate him higher than 8 or so? He’s never dominated, in my opinion. At this point I think it is justified to list Biddle over him.

    Lastly, I will watch Aumont (still in my top 10, based on ceiling) closely to look for improvement this year – which I expect. He went back to starting last year. And tall pitchers take time. He seems to have the attitude to build on the experience and improve.

    Like

  26. Went with May based on his being slightly ahead of both Cosart and Colvin but I could easily take any combination of those three in any order. Singleton is slightly lower based on his position. IF he can show the ability to play the OF he jumps higher but his value as a 1b only drops him down to the bottom of the top-5.

    Like

  27. I’m sure I’ll be scorned for this, but I feel Biddle is probably the best prospect in the system, and this year will prove it. I realize young, but he projects very well given LHP, age, and success last year. Long way to go, but he has to shoot up on the prospect chart, especially given LHP. No injury history either, as yet.

    Like

  28. When is Julio Rodriguez going to appear on some of these lists? 6’4″ 200 lbs, 14.5 k/9, 3.5 bb/9 all as a 19-20 yr old at Lakewood? Are you kidding me he isn’t considered a better prospect than some of these other pitchers?

    Like

  30. Would say that Rodriguez’s question mark is sample size (only 7 starts at A-ball) and overall “stuff” since reports on his velocity have him throwing anywhere from 87-93 with average secondary pitches but a good idea of how to pitch. If he’s consistant in the 90-93 range then he certainly deserves top-10 consideration but if he sits at 87-89 its a different story since advanced hitters will be able to match the pitching IQ.

    Like

  31. I agree with those who picked Singleton over the pitchers because of the greater injury risk among pitchers. In terms of actual performance in 2010, however, I was a little more impressed by Cosart, Colvin, and May. I’m slightly concerned about the drop-off in Singleton’s numbers the second half.

    Like

  32. “And I’m happy we have Worley in the system, but if his ceiling is at best a #3, so why would you rate him higher than 8 or so? He’s never dominated, in my opinion. At this point I think it is justified to list Biddle over him. ”

    Because he’s a much more sure bet and because a legitimate #3 starter on a good team is an extremely valuable player. Although the other pitchers we discuss may have a higher ceiling, they are very far away from the majors and much can go wrong.

    Like

  33. I don’t see how you can dock Singleton’s second half performance as a reason to pick Jarred Cosart. Cosart missed the second half!

    Like

  34. I learned my lesson a few years ago when we did this list. We had a bunch of very young and intriguing prospects and J.A. Happ, who was nearly a finished project, but looked like he could become a nice, middle-of-the-rotation starter. At the beginning of 2009, after his strong 2008 season, Happ was ranked 9th – a ranking that I think most thought justified at the time. But so many of the guys head of him did nothing or progressed farther and we realized, for example that – hey, Lou Marson’s not that good. The long and short of it is that a very solid, advanced, mid-rotation starter is a very valuable guy and should rank higher than some, but not all, of the guys that we project. I’ll have Worley somewhere between 4 and 8.

    Like

  35. Voted for Singleton. Mostly true statements above about pitchers, Singleton’s bad second half, etc.

    But to me, it’s one net covering Singleton, Cosart, Colvin, May, with lots of ifs and tradeoffs:

    –If Cosart were never injured, maybe #2 on pure ace potential.

    –If Singleton hit well throughout the entire season, you would not have to exercise a little caution as to where you ranked him.

    –If May had performed as well at Clearwater initially as he did at Lakewood in second half.

    –If the healthy Colvin had just that little touch of extra electric stuff like Cosart.

    If . . . if . . . if . . .

    To me, it is not significant at this point where you rank these 2 through 5 guys.

    Like

  37. I voted Singleton. I agree Cosart is a special talent, but so is Singleton and I can’t put Cosart this high until I see he is fully recovered from injury. Despite Singleton’s torrid start, Cosart was my in-season #2, prior to the injury. He’s somewhere in the 3 – 5 range for me now, depending on whether I’m in an optimistic or pessimistic frame of mind.

    Like

  38. Went with Colvin here. For me, it’s a coin flip between him and Cosart, but I gave it to Colvin based on his better record with injury. I like Singleton a lot, but to me the question of where he plays in the field still looms large. I also have a sneaking suspicion that we have been downgrading May too much based on his brief control struggles in Clearwater (FWIW, he was totally dominant in the one start I saw him pitch in Lakewood). But anyway, it’s nice to feel this torn about the placement of prospects 2-5.

    Like

  39. Fair points on Worley, Catch.

    I see Worley’s ceiling as a #3, but I do not yet have as much confidence as you that he’ll attain that status in the Bigs. There is still some risk that Worley = Carpenter (AAAA) or Kendrick (a #4 or #5). And probably as much uncertainy with him being a #3 as the young pitchers attaining #2 starter status someday.

    Anyway, I tend to value dominance at a single level over non-dominant effectiveness at a higher level (or even a few starts). I know I’ll be wrong often when guys break down or advanced hitters catch up to them, but what kind of prospect on this list would you trade for another team’s Worley at this time?

    Like

  41. I’m also agreeing with Catch regarding Worley – he should get a boost in the rankings because he is close to a finished product, and thus the likelihood of his attaining his ceiling (3-4 starter, IMO) are much higher than a lot of the guys in the lower minors. Personally, I have Worley ranked 7, which seems about right but won’t surprise me if he inches up a slot or two

    – Jeff

    Like

  42. Only one real choice here, the 2 pitchers some might be inclined to vote here have physical, psychological, and behavioral issues which should bump them down a couple of spots. Singleton, 1B, is the choice here.

    Like

  43. I would rank Worley higher if I actually thought he had the potential to be a middle of the rotation starter but I’ve seen nothing from him to date to support that position. He put up average #’s in both AA and AAA in 2010 and doesn’t have particulary dominant stuff. Nothing in his performance to date screams #3 starter on a good team.

    If your of the opinion that Joe Blanton isn’t a satisfactory #3 starter on the Phillies then you can’t go there with Worley. Their stuff and minor league numbers (hits, walks, K/per 9 etc.) are very similar at the same age. I think Worley should have every opportunity to win the 5th starter’s job in ST and he can have a very good career as a back of the rotation starter but I don’t see him as a #3 starter on a playoff team.

    Like

  44. “And I’m happy we have Worley in the system, but if his ceiling is at best a #3, so why would you rate him higher than 8 or so.”

    If Worley gets to number three on THIS team he would be doing something right.

    Like

  45. “I’ve seen nothing from him to date to support that position. He put up average #’s in both AA and AAA in 2010 and doesn’t have particulary dominant stuff. Nothing in his performance to date screams #3 starter on a good team.”

    I thought that too and then I saw him pitch and changed my mind. Worley throws hard, has a number of pitches with good movement and that he sets up effectively. I believe that he is a MUCH better pitcher than I thought he was based on his numbers and his history in the system, which is admittedly mixed. Now, maybe he pitched over his head the times I saw him, but what I saw was surprisingly good.

    Like

  46. any reports on Singleton in LF?…if lookin good he may get my #2…if not colvin because cosart got injured and missed most of the season.

    Like

  47. Marfis I’m assuming physical=cosart, due to injuries, phsychological=May because of control issues and behavioral=colvin I think i remember some incident several months ago but can’t remember what. Aren’t these labels a little judgemental? I love Singleton but couldn’t we say physcological for him because he couldn’t hit the second half? No we can’t and neither can we really use these labels on the others in my oppinion.

    Like

  48. “Now, maybe he pitched over his head the times I saw him, but what I saw was surprisingly good.”

    Believe your eyes bud and above all don’t listen to Wheeler or Angelo.

    Like

  49. Singleton is a good athlete and played OF in high school, he’ll be fine in LF. Ceiling vs Liklihood is always a good conversation when we get into our lists. Everyone is different but its a balancing act to me. I have Worley at #8 because I think he’s close to being a #5 starter (low ceiling but strong liklihood) and I have Santana down at #15 because I feel the liklihood of him making it is dropping(but with a high ceiling). Always interesting….

    Like

  50. I said Worley had a #3 ceiling above. To explain. I think he’s better than Kendrick, based on more pitches, nice, if not overpowering, velocity, and seemed to have an idea when I saw him. He has pitched some nice games in minors and has had streaks where he pitched well for several starts in a row. Kendrick has to have his sinker working on a precise plane, darting down below the knees or lower. If hitters are patient or umps are pinching him, he is toast. Worley has the arsenal to be effective eventually without needing perfect conditions. To me, if he becomes consistently effective, he is a solid #4, and these days, with pitching so scarce, a #4 is a poor team’s #3. I’m talking ceiling, say 2 or 3 years.

    Like

  51. Catch,

    Also thought Worley looked good the few times I saw him but he wasn’t throwing particulary hard from what a remember. PP had a running log from his first start against Florida and he was sitting between 87-91 with his fastball. He might have been a tick faster in the couple of relief appearances he had but most guys are able to push a couple MPH higher in a 1-inning stint.

    What I remember mostly was his ability to throw all of his pitches for strikes and having a good presense on the mound which is why I like him as a better option then Kendrick moving forward.

    Like

  52. The ceiling for Singleton is more than “just a 25HR first baseman.”

    The guy’s been drawing Manny Ramirez type comparisons….

    Like

  53. What may be important about Worley is does he have that something extra in a jam. He has hardly needed it so far in the bigs. Come to think about it that may be what separates all grood/great pitchers from the rest. I can remember Roberts. It seemed like he had a “that’s enough ” mode. One game the first batter homered and RR retired the next 27.

    Like

  55. Dennis H, someone said Singleton is the best 18 year old they’ve seen since Ramirez. That’s not the same as saying Singleton IS Manny Ramirez and I think it’s a disservice to make that comparison.

    If I were to attach a name to Jonathan Singleton’s upside, it would be John Olerud. A guy who would top out at 20-25 but was tremendously productive due to his high OBPs.

    Like

  56. I do not think Singleton has quite the upside of Heyward (for example) but he certainly looks like a more seasoned hitter than his age would suggest.

    I think Aumont is a reasonable choice for inclusion in the voting. I still think he is comparable to May, who seems to be getting a pass for his extreme wildness. Granted May did drop a level and gain some control back while Aumont was not dominant after dropping a level. Certainly May’s rebound gives more confidence and therefore a higher ranking but Aumont has similarly good stuff and had to transition back to a starter with the trade hype last year.

    Like

  57. I think Cosart is going to be a star when he gets to the show. I chose him over Singleton who I think will be an above average major leaguer with the flexibility to play OF and 1B.
    I disregarded Cosart’s injury as simply the Phillies’ management exercising extreme caution in shutting down a young pitcher who they know has the chance to be special.
    I also recall many players raving about him in ST and they have to hit against him.
    He should be knocking on the door to the bigs by 2013.

    Like

  58. A lot of votes are split between cosart, colvin, and may so singleton should get this spot. I chose colvin because he has been injury free to this point and has great stuff. Cosart would have been my choice if he had stayed healthy because his stuff is definately special.

    Like

  59. Ice-9 said, “I tend to value dominance at a single level over non-dominant effectiveness at a higher level (or even a few starts).” I guess that is why Austin Hyatt was the Phillies MILB pitcher of the year instead of Worley. I’m not sure if I agree with that, but I will say that if May, Cosart, Covlin, or Singleton had been dominant for a full season I would have ranked them ahead of Worley, my personal #2 Phillies prospect. They all had dominant half-seasons — in Lakewood. Worley was 9-4 in 113 innings with a 3.20 ERA — in Reading — before throwing 58 more good innings in Lehigh Valley and in Philadelphia (including some with September pressure). Brody Colvin was 6-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 138 innings in Lakewood. Cosart pitched 79 innings with a 3.79 ERA. May pitched 65 innings in Lakewood with a 2.91 ERA. (I like him the best of those 3 because his manager made him his #1 starter in the playoffs.) Singleton batted .290 with an .872 OPS, excellent for his age, but short of dominant, especially for his defensive position.

    Don’t get me wrong. All 3 of Cosart, May and Colvin are great prospects. I’ll guess that 1 of those 3 will end up better than Worley, but which one? None has been dominant for a full season yet. All have talent and either a dominant fastball or curveball, which is why people like them so much, but pitching is more about consistency and durability than just raw talent. Yes, a pitcher who throws a better fastball, change-up or curve ball can get by with an extra few mistakes per game, but that’s about it. Worley’s main talent right now is his control, which I like (2.72 minor league career SO/BB ratio). His consistency and durability are developing and far ahead of the A-ballers at this time, which is why he has a chance to pitch in Philadelphia this April and they don’t. I don’t see Carpenter or Blanton as good comparators, because Worley has a faster fastball than either of them.

    Ice-9 actually picked Singleton, not a pitcher. I also like Singlteon more than the other pitchers and might have put him ahead of Worley if he played any position other than first base. (I’m happy to hear he’s learning left field in the instructional league.) Will he be as good a hitter as Tagg Bozied or Matt Rizzotti? There are lots of great hitting first-basemen stuck in the minors. It’s a very competitive position. Hopefully Singleton will learn to play the outfield, and continue to hit. I actually like Valle as a prospect a little more than Singleton because of his power and his catching skills. (They are 3 and 4 on my list). Valle has hit many homers in good Mexican leagues and in the Sally playoffs. He deserves some of the credit for Lakewood’s great pitching. And it may be a coincidence, and too far to go back, but the Phillies have been incredibly good over the past 40 years in developing catchers. But he needs to learn the strike zone. That’s where Singleton shines. They’re real close in my book, but to me Worley’s great season, at 22 years of age, puts him behind only Brown in terms of ceiling and proximity. Actually I think he’s far behind Brown, in a tight cluster with at least 10 others, including Bastardo, DeFratus, Mathieson, and Gillies.

    Like

  61. Singleton, Cosart, Colvin

    I love position players personally. What Singleton did when he first got to Lakewood was incredible, and even when his form slumped he kept taking walks and thats what impressed me most.

    I think hes going to be a truly special player. I hope so anyway

    Like

  62. Some interesting non-Mike Newman notes at Scouting the Sally (http://scoutingthesally.com/?p=2448) on Juio Rodriquez. I now think he will be breaking into my Top 10.

    – Observed throwing low 90s, despite not using lower half (legs) much. If he builds strength, and works on using the legs consistently, how can his stuff across the board not take a nice jump this year? I’m buying pre-breakout!

    “Julio Rodriguez was one of the two best pitchers I saw in the Sally this season. I wish I had seen him pitch more than 3 innings so I could compare him better to the other top pitching prospect I saw, Braves prospect Arodys Vizcaino. I am very surprised, even after his electric second half, an extremely positive write up by Kevin Goldstein, and a good winter ball start for Carolina in Puerto Rico, that Rodriguez isn’t viewed as a top prospect among Phillies fans.”

    Like

  63. I’m psyched that our top prospects are plentiful and there’s much to discuss. I voted for Singleton being influenced by the “hope” factor that another OF will join Dom Brown and reach the majors in the next few years. We seem to be set with expensive starting pitchers for a while, but with Werth gone and Ibanez likely gone after 2011, they’ll need an influx of cheap homegrown OF starters. Here’s hoping Singleton, Santana and even Gillies are coached up and on a fast track but they’re young and it’ll take time and patience. And let’s not forget Collier, James and Altherr.

    Like

  64. Perhaps the best young right handed power hitting outfield bat in the farm system right now is Sebastian Valle. He looked smooth running down fly balls in left on USTREAM in the game tonight. Valle hit his 23rd and 24th homers of the year: 16 SAL regular season, 3 SAL playoffs and now 5 in the Mexican Pacific League for Los Mochis. Also he tripled driving in two more runs. In the 9th he work a 3-2 count for a walk moving the tieing run to second. He then eventually scored the winning run later in the inning.

    Like

Comments are closed.