44 thoughts on “AFL Update”

1. Havent posted in a while.

   Given the holes opening up in the big league bullpen for 2011, I would expect two guys will have the chance from the system to come up and lock in a roster spot.

   With Bastardo as the lefty, that leaves Scott Mathieson and Justin DeFratus as the two guys I think who will make the roster.

   Rizzotti will probably be used in a winter trade because he seems ready and is very blocked…

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2. I think the Phillies have can protect both Rizzotti or our newly hitting Savery. But, can either of them play any other position? The other infield positions are difficult, and we’re probably finished with Outfield prospects (thought anything is better than just 1B).

   If not, can we trade Rizzotti straight up for a real talent at 3B? or SS? or catcher?

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3. Geoff,

   Don’t count on there being two pen spots by the time spring training rolls around. I fully expect to see an imported LOOGY, Durbin, Baez, and one of Kendrick/Carpenter/Worley taking spots in the pen. They’ll want someone more veteran to fill the 7th inning role.

   De Fratus is at an additional disadvantage by not being on the 40 man roster. It’s only at 34 right now, but that’s not counting 2-3 of the pen spots I just mentioned, any outfielder who might be signed, or any Rule V selections.

   And don’t expect Matt Rizzotti to carry much value in a trade discussion. He’s bad bodied and not showing enough power to get away with it. The Phillies are probably better off keeping him around in case he develops a little more sock in the bat.

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4. If Durbin is brought back on anything more than a minor league invite, I’ll be very surprised. He was awful the entire second half of this season and in the playoffs. In fact, Baez took a lot of heat, but Durbin was easily as bad, and bad in more important spots because Charlie remembered what he used to be.

   I think it’s very possible they’ll bring in a LOOGY, but wouldn’t be surprised if DeFratus, Bastardo, and one of Kendrick, Worley (Yikes, not Carpenter), maybe Mathieson, are with the big club to start the season.

   I’m not sold on Mathieson’s stuff. He has yet to show anything worthwhile in his cups of coffee in the majors. And velocity on a straight fastball is not enough to get out major league hitters. But I do see a good possibility that they try to keep Contreras.

   Lidge, Madson, Bastardo, LOOGY, Contreras, DeFratus, Kendrick/Worley (whoever is not the fifth starter.)

   And if they want to keep an extra utility infielder and a fifth outfielder on the roster, they may leave DeFratus in AAA and go with a slightly short pen. Because with the top three starters, relief innings won’t be a huge need most of the time.

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5. I agree that Rizzotti is worth more on the team than he would be in a trade. What you would get for him would not be worth what you could end up losing.

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6. I LIKE TURTLES

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7. Like the new Galvis approach at the plate in the VWL: Five walks to go with three hits in his last 14 at bats.

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8. I think the phils should try carpenter out of the pen. he could be more effective in short stints out of the pen. durbin was a AAAA starting pitcher before he came to philly as a rp.

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9. Slabs have you seen carpenter pitch?? He has nothing.

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10. i have seen him. he has enough for the phils to give him a shot.

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11. Carp has had several “shots” over the last few years. At best, he’s a AAAA spot starter. He’s not an MLB player on a team like the Phillies…he just isn’t.

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12. I have to agree with Nepp. Carpenter was on my list but watching him struggle with less than average stuff turned me around. He would need an out pitch to survive.

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13. I also must go with the consensus, Carpenter just isn’t that good.

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14. Carpenter might be ok as the long man in the bullpen that is rarely used but not much more. His most likely best use would be as a throw in piece in a bigger trade to a bad team that could use him and give him a chance as a 5th starter or middle relief guy.

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15. With H2O long men are less valuable. If he is not good enough to get the side out for one inning in a pinch then he is almost useless.

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16. Another thought a pitcher who does only long work or even mop up may not pitch for two weeks and we have Baez for mop up.

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17. Another. H2O has turned the Phils into a retrograde team more like the ’70s or ’80s. So the thinking has to be more like that era. More to Charlies’s upbringing. It works only if the management time goes into a time warp. Maybe an ten or eleven man pitching staff max. Again the thought of rotating the eleventh man (prospects)( which we have). No use copying the other teams with starter who go six innings max.

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18. I keep reading that Rizzotti is “unathletic”. Question: is that just a euphimism for “fat”? Because I can’t conceive of how a guy who is probably in the top .1% of all people playing baseball in this country is “unathletic”.

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19. Ditto

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20. No, in Rizzotti’s case, unathletic means precisely that – he is not fat. In fact, he’s in good shape and is very strong. Why is the concept of a baseball player being relatively unathletic hard to understand? The term unathletic is relative. He is unathletic compared to a guy like Domonic Brown, not compared to a bunch of guys playing in an adult league. Being unathletic in baseball means, generally speaking, that he is not particularly fast, he does not throw the ball particularly well and he is not agile or particularly well coordinated. Hitting a baseball well does not make you an athletic ballplayers – Adam Dunn is the prime current example, but there are plenty of other players like this. As for why it mattes, here’s why – unathletic players: (a) can play fewer positions and those they play tend to be among the least important positions so their athletic deficiencies can be shielded; (b) provide fewer ways to win games (can’t score as easily, or field as well); and (c) generally decline much more quickly than athletic players.

    So, yes, it’s a different concept than being in shape and, yes, it matters.

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21. Catch 22: Thank you for the explanation.

    At any rate, I still don’t understand calling Rizzotti unathletic, which my dictionary defines as “not good at athletics or sports.”

    So what you’re really telling me is that to an evaluator of prospects, unathletic means “not fast”, “bad at defense”, or some combination thereof? That’s certainly a valid complaint, but it tells me a lot more about him as a prospect than “unathletic.”

    That’s probably a bit of pedantry on my part for minding the “unathletic” descriptor, but at least you’ve provided me with an explanation of what is really meant by it.

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22. An athlete being called unathletic is certainly contrary to the dictionary term but you need to think of it in relation to others in their profession. As Catch indicated, guys like Rizzotti are termed unathletic because they have limited measurable skills, i.e. they don’t run fast or throw far.

    Think if it like a wide receiver at the draft combine who runs a 4.8 40 and is deemed “too slow”. 4.8 is certainly not slow but it is when compared to the other participants.

    The good news for Rizzotti is that baseball is probably the one major sport where you can be “unathletic” and still experience some success since the hand/eye coordination needed to hit a baseball is more of a skill. His problem becomes that he needs to hit the ball extremely well to make up for everything else.

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23. Couple of comments:

    I know alot of people are down on Mathieson’s ability to get hitters out at the MLB level. I think the brass has acknowledged this by bringing in Bruce Sutter. If he is able to do something with the work he did with Sutter, I think that could go a long way in his ability to contribute at a cheap cost to our BP next season.

    Rizzotti seems to perplex so many. Why don’t we just utilize him rather than hoping to get mileage out of him in terms of a trade? The “kid” is going to be 25 come December. Let’s just accept him for what he is – a good hitter with limited defensive ability. When you think of PH, DH opportunities and the spot start and/or potential Howard short term injury replacement? I’d say Matt Stairs is a comparative for Rizzotti in terms of usage. I know a “young” player needs ABs but at 25, maybe he is what he is and we see what he can do with spot ABs at the MLB level. He can’t be worse than Dobbs off the bench and he may be more like Gload who was putting up decent OPS #’s before his routine playing days.

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24. I agree with the others that Rizzotti isn’t going to net the Phillies anything great in a trade. If Howard were to miss a significant chunk of time with an injury AND Rizzotti got a shot to come up and hit really well then maybe you have a scenario where the Phils could flip him for something good.

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25. The trouble with Rizzotti as PH is that I’d see it unlikely for an MLB team to give a player key ABs when he hasn’t been truly tested at the MLB level. And he’s unlikely to get many ABs with Howard playing 160 games a season.

    Ultimately the reasonable course of action is probably for Rizzotti to play 2011 in Lehigh Valley. He’s only played 94 games above Clearwater so he’s hardly been held back unfairly. Either he succeeds and pushes the issue (perhaps increasing his trade value), or he flounders at AAA and it’s not really an issue.

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26. Adam Dunn was a qb at Texas so I do not think he is a good example of “unathletic.”

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27. Article on philly.com hints at Mark Parent managing Reading next year, and Ryne Sandberg being interviewed for Lehigh Valley job. Also, looks like Mariano Duncan leading candidate to replace Lopes. Also some Lamar comments on DeFratus, Zeid, and the Rizz.

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28. As John Kruk said so well, I ain’t no athlete lady, I am a baseball player (and so he was)

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29. “Adam Dunn was a qb at Texas so I do not think he is a good example of “unathletic.””

    That, apparently, is true, but he has certainly devolved into an entirely unathletic baseball player. That’s not a knock on Dunn, the hitter, by the way – I think he’s one of the most underrated hitters in baseball over the last 20-30 years. As a hitter, there’s a damned good chance that he will be better than Ryan Howard over the life of Howard’s contract. Dunn just finished his age 30 year (he turns 31 today) and has 354 home runs. He will likely hit more than 500 and could easily hit 600. We are talking about a borderline HOF guy. But as a fielder, he is a complete mess.

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30. It’s surprising how athletic some of the “unathletic” players were in their youth. John Kruk stole 18 bases in a season. Matt Stairs somehow stole 20+ bases in two minor league seasons and played shortstop!

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31. Stevemc:

    Why in the world would you think that Matt Stairs is a a good comparison as to the usage of the “Rizz”?

    Matt Stairs is a proven power hitter who has hit 265 HR and has about 900 RBIs in the major leagues over 18 seasons. He hit 20 HRs in a season 5 times and even hit 38 one year. He was also an everyday player for Oakland for about a 5 year player. Then he morphed into very good bench player/pinch hitter over the last 5-10 years.

    The “Rizz” is a guy who has hit 42 HR in 1365 minor league ABs.

    Yes, of course, there is a small chance that he could blossom and have a matt stairs type career. Theres also a chance he could hit .261 with 6 HR in AAA this year. The point is Stairs has done it in the bigs, and Rizzotti has not given any indication that he will ever do it in the bigs, except for a 77 game stretch in AA as a 24 year old.

    Lets let the “Rizz”‘s career play out a little more before you start making more outrageous claims. You “Rizz” lovers make it really hard for him. He is never going to be able to live up to the expectations created by you clowns and then you will look at him as a failure down the road. Its a tough road that you are creating for him….

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32. I think Steve was talking about Matt Stairs as the Phillies used him, suggesting that Rizzotti be used comparably as a pinch-hitter who really doesn’t play the field.

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33. Yeah. His direct quote was “in terms of usage.”

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34. According to Keith, Zeid was throwing 92-95 with a “decent slider” at the Rising Stars game. Says he could start 2011 as a AA reliever.

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35. Yo Alan ~ I believe I actually referenced his “usage” quote in my first sentence? So whats your point fella?

    I ask again, why is Matt Stairs a good comparison for Matt Rizzotti in terms of usage? Why would a team ever use Matt Rizzotti in the same role that they use Matt Stairs? Will MAtt Rizzotti ever play 139 games in the OF like Stairs did in 1999? Will the “Rizz” ever be an everyday player in the majors? Will he ever hit 38 HRs in a season in the majors? Will he ever be used as a LH power bat off the bench? Will he ever hit 265 HRs in the majors?

    Alan, do you think that Rizzotti will have that kind of pop in the majors? Do you think he will be “used” in the same way as Stairs in the majors?

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36. They mean that the phillies could use him the way they used Matt Stairs in 08 and 09 not how he was used in his prime.

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37. Why would they use the “Rizz” in the role that they used Stairs in in 08 and 09? Stairs was used in that role because he was a proven power hitter who has hit 260+ HRs in the majors. The only thing the “Rizz” has proven is that he had a good 77 game stretch in AA aqs a 24 year old.

    Teams contending for a World Series like the Phillies do not use guys like the “Rizz” and hope that he can he hit a HR off the bench. They go out and get proven major league guys that have 260+ HRs and count on them helping the team.

    I dont understand where allo the “Rizz” supporters feel like they can make this leap that the “Rizz” can produce like a Matt Stairs or be a DH in the AL like an Adfam Lind (from a previous thread). Just because you want to think he can be that, doesnt mean he ewvr will, or even that a team will ever even give him a chance to do it. This isnt fantasy land, its a business and guys have to earn their spot in the majors by producing which the “Rizz” hasnt, except for those magical, mythical 77 games in Reading…

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38. You do understand that Adam Lind was sub-replacement in 2010, right? You’re attacking anyone who says anything positive about Matt Rizzotti, even if they’re reasonable about his future prospects. (I think he’s replacement level in 2011.) It’s downright irksome.

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39. Man up Alan. If you cant taking someone “attacking” you (having a different opinion?) on an internet messageboard than I would hate to see how you react to adversity in real life.

    I understand Lind was below replacement level in 2010. And the “Rizz” would be way way way below replacement level in 2011. If he ever even gets to the majors that is. Lets see he if he can finally put more than 77 games together for oince in his career. I doubt it

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40. The biggest problem with having Rizz on the 25 man roster isn’t that he necessarily would be below replacement level (he might, he might not), but that, in the days of 12 man pitching staffs, it is folly to give a roster spot to someone who can only play 1B and PH.

    It can’t be repeated too often – 25 minus 8 minus 12 = 5. Five players to back up every position. Since one has to be a catcher, that’s really 4 players backing up 7 positions.

    If he really could play the OF … eh, then at least he would be in the mix, though IMO still a longshot. But apparently he can’t.

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41. Larry With H2O a 12 man pitching staff isn’t called for..

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42. Thanks to all who supported my definition of “usage” for Rizz vs. Stairs ’08-’09 time with the Phils. That was my intention. I’m not saying Rizz will perform to Stairs’ level necessary but putting out there that Stairs played multiple seasons in the field in his younger playing days is pretty much irrelevant. I understand Stairs had a pedigree coming in vs. Rizzotti’s blank slate. I’m simply saying you have what appears to be a very strong hitter with little trade value that might actually add more value as a bench bat. Even though the bench spots are finite, they found a way to keep Stairs on the roster and I think they could do it again with Rizzotti if he proves out in ST.

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43. Did anyone notice that a Phillie Pharmhand had the #5 play of the day on ESPN? Luis Unda, playing leftfield, slipped while chasing a flyball and jumped up to snag it. Unda, played in the GCL this year, is playing in Ven. He’s 3 – 9 in the 3 games he’s played there. I’m not voting him onto the top 30 but it’s nice to see a Phillie on TV.

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44. The Riz is like a rocket. No one knows how high he will go or if he will come back to earth. But to say he will only reach 5,000 ft when he is still on the way up is way ,way premature.Some people are too serious about the situation.

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