Open discussion number 1

Daily Discussion

We’re gonna wait a bit to start the reader Top 30. The MLB playoffs start soon, so there will be discussion there. So I wanted to throw this out there. With Domonic Brown still a rookie, he is a lock to be the #1 prospect in the system. After him, the next 3 guys are probably Singleton, Colvin and Cosart in some order. Then maybe Trevor May.

So here is today’s discussion quest. Which guys do you see falling in the 6-10 range? 1-5 seems fairly easy, 6-10 doesn’t. You don’t need to rank guys now, but I’m curious to see who everyone thinks should be in the 6-10 range in some order. Lets hear it.

114 thoughts on “Open discussion number 1”

  1. I’ve been trying to formulate a top 30 and really struggling. Even when I finish I won’t be happy with the rankings. But here’s what I have so far.

    6. Sebastian Valle
    7. Jiwan James
    8. Phillippe Aumont
    9. J.C. Ramirez
    10. Tyson Gillies

    Really giving Gillies the benefit of the doubt.

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  4. H. Garcia, C. Hernandez, J. Pettibone, J. Biddle and J. DeFratus with about 10 others very close. By the way Rob, Villar was traded.

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  6. Brown, Singleton, Covin, Cosart, May, Biddle, De Fratus, Valle, James, and Ramirez.

    Altherr, Hernandez, Aumont, and Pettis just miss the list. In reality, Pettis and Altherr just miss the list.

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  8. Yeah, Altherr and Pettis could be in there, too. I’d like to see a bit more of both of them before I put either in the top 10.

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  10. markymark says:
    October 3, 2010 at 9:59 PM
    6-biddle
    7-valle
    8-pettibone
    9-altherr
    10-worley

    Plus 1, except I swap Altherr and Worley

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  11. To me there are two guys who should be locks for the 6-10 zone.

    Valle: highest upside prospect left after the top 5, looks ready for A+ next season. The recent positive reports on his defense, coupled with the fact that he can hit at all at this early stage, means he could have a ceiling as a 4-5 WAR player, which is big time.

    Worley: Even moreso than Dom Brown, he is the most MLB-ready guy in the system. There is definite value in that. Given his stuff is superior to Kyle Kendrick, and Kendrick just pitched a 1-WAR season for the Phils, Worley seems a lock to be either a useful #5 or a great middle reliever out of the pen.

    From there it gets hazy.

    I think you have to slot Jesse Biddle in the top 10 after what he did this year. You really can’t ask much more from a cold-weather HS draftee than what he did. The stuff is real. He’s already a major league piece with the fastball he brings from the left side. He’s a frontline starter once the off-speed stuff gets tightened up.

    Julio Rodriguez had absolutely redonkulous numbers at Lakewood. If the mid-90s velo reports are real he is definitely a blue-chipper. At any rate, given the projectability and the numbers he put up, he has to be considered among the Phillies’ elite prospects.

    Justin De Fratus blew guys away across A+/AA with great control. His stuff “plays way way up” out of the pen, according to KG. I would be surprised if he doesn’t get a crack at the bullpen out of spring training next year.

    Bastardo had an up-and-down year, got hurt (again), but really came on strong the last couple weeks in the bigs. The stuff is there. Maybe the confidence is now too.

    Tyson Gillies: I’m still high on him as a player, but it’s awful hard to know his standing as a prospect, and rank him fairly, until his legal issues are resolved. Ultimately I do believe he will replace Victorino in 2013.

    Phillippe Aumont had a somewhat disastrous season. But the projection is so massive that many will put him in their top 10. I’m afraid he just a big-arm thrower with little feel for pitching.

    Domingo Santana: lots of projection to dream on, fall back on the walk rate, ARL, and not much else.

    I see the next group outside the top 10…

    Harold Garcia had a great season at Clearwater. But his wOBA was only .324 at Reading and the lack of walks combined with relatively high K rate for his kind of hitter worries me.

    Cesar Hernandez = Harold Garcia II

    Aaron Altherr is a possibility in the top 10. As is Jiwan James. Depends how much you weigh tools/scouting/production.

    JC Ramirez had a quiet season. I know the reports on his stuff are generally positive. I think he might be a bullpen guy going forward if he can’t generate the Ks as a starter.

    Jesus Sanchez showed really good control at Clearwater, but the Ks fell off sharply. At the same time, it was just his second season on the bump and it’s been a mostly positive transition so far.

    Freddy Galvis: the glove is still golden. He’s still not even 21, folks! I’d give him another two seasons at Reading before writing him off.

    Nick Hernandez/Matt Way/Austin Hyatt: all dominated lower levels. Hyatt gets the highest grade for dominating A+, then continuing to strike guys out in 4 turns at Reading.

    Colby Shreve made it thru a whole season and pitched decently, but it seems the stuff that made him such a hot prospect before the TJ hasn’t returned yet. Still bears watching though.

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  14. Valle, Biddle, Aumont, Gillies, Worley

    Schwim gets downgraded due to being a reliever, same with De Fratus (assuming he projects as a reliever, which I think he does…) One more year before getting excited about Rodriguez.

    I’m excited about Valle.

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  15. 6. Worley
    7. James
    8. Biddle
    9. Santana
    10. DeFratus

    I think Altherr is interchangeable with Santana. It’s hard to put some of the AA/AAA guys on the list when we all know the capabilities of the lower level guys. Honorable mentions would go to Hyatt, Way, JC Ramirez, Julio Rodriguez, Harold Garcia, Rizzotti, Overbeck, Aumont, Gillies, Pettibone, Shreve, Schwimmer, etc.

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  17. Santana has credibility as an honorable mention, but until he shows that he can hit a breaking ball I’m not gonna put him in a top 10…even given the age discrepancy.

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  18. If Bastardo still counts I still like him. Not sure why he cannot put it together at MLB level. Also near the majors are Worley, DeFratus, and Rizzotti so I will usually rank those guys higher than higher risk talent.

    Here’s my thinking right now:
    Brown, Covin, Singleton, Cosart, Biddle, Valle, May, Worley, Bastardo, Rizzotti, DeFratus, Pettibone, Gillies, Mathieson, Aumont, Altherr, H.Garcia, Rodriguez, James …

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  19. I’m sticking with Worley as #2 in the system, behind Brown, and I still like Valle a lot. So that is 7. After that I think it is a bit of a drop-off. I’d probably pick 3 out of De Fratus, Julio Rodriguez, Harold Garcia, Rizzotti, Biddle, James, and Gillies. This is assuming Mathieson and Bastardo are no longer eligible. I like governator1’s list except it is missing Schwimmer definitely and Pettibone probably before the last 4 on that list.

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  20. I still don’t see ranking Gillies or Aumont high at all. I really need to see Aumont as a closer. I need to do more research but from MILB it seems the more fly balls he gives up, the better his ERA. That might indicated
    throw high and hard and sit down.
    Gillies is number one on my “head case” list.

    Worley somewhere in the top 5. I am impressed. Thankfully Brown missed the only “hit” last game or Charlie might of kept him in longer.
    He has outpitched KK and several others and should be on the PS roster.

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  21. I would have Valle, James, Worley, DeFratus and Biddle running 6-10. Aumont, Ramirez, and Pettibone just missing.

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  22. Oops I put Villar in there, I was thinking of H Garcia another IF. But there are so many that will get consideration as top 10 I even forgot Rizzotti. Then next year we can compare notes to see how close we got

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  23. I’m surprised so many people rate Pettibone highly. He’s young and throws hard, but he just doesn’t miss bats.

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  24. I disagree with PP. I don’t think the members of 6-10 are that difficult to find. The order can be debated a little after the top 7 though.

    06. Biddle
    07. Valle
    08. James
    09. Worley
    10. Ramirez

    After those guys Altherr, De Fratus, Santana, Aumont, Gillies and H Garcia in some order.

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  25. I think its valle,cause according to reports his defense makes him a candidate to make the majors, de fratus has the stuff, garcia, not far away, pettibone has really come on, athleter

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  26. Think I go:
    6. Valle – Good season at premium position
    7. Worley – ML ready
    8. Bastardo-if still eligible
    9. Biddle – Lefties who throw consist 90s fastball are valuable
    10. Santana – Power and plate discipline for age is promising.

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  29. There is really never much debate in the reader top 10. It seems to me, every year the 11-20 is wildly debated.

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  31. FREDDY GALVIS…as an age appropriate 20 year old in Lakewood or Clearwater we would probably be fawning over a gold glove caliber SS with a .260-.270 average and projecting him as the 2013 SS when he is the ripe old age of 23. Instead, we are bemoaning the 20 year old’s struggles at the plate in AA ball because the Phillies have rushed him through the system to try to protect pitchers at higher levels at the possible detriment to Galvis’ development and confidence.
    The only position players on the LAKEWOOD roster younger than Galvis are Singleton & Valle, he would be the youngest at CLEARWATER by a year, and other than Gillies, he is the youngest at READING by 3 full years. He batted .048 points lower than Harold Garcia, but is 3 years his junior at the same level.
    The discussion is: will he be able to replace Rollins when his time in Philadelphia is up? Will he ever be able to hit .265-.275 in the majors? Rollins is a career .272 hitter with terrible plate discipline and a penchant for clutch hitting; if Galvis is capable of becoming a .260 hitter(he has shown clutch capabilities as well), which I think he will in time, I think he has to be a top 10 prospect because he will be a major league caliber shortstop, the toughest prospect to find on any farm in the minors.
    Rollins batted .273 as a 20 year old in Reading to Galvis .233, but he was a 2nd rd pick with the benefit of structure that does not exist in venezuela. hanzawa batted .224 as a 24 year old in clearwater this year.

    BIDDLE
    RODRIGUEZ
    PETTIBONE
    VALLE

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  32. Freddie Galvis is not comparable to Jimmy Rollins in any way offensively.
    It is easy to say a 272 avg is not that much better than 238 (It is, but I’ll leave that alone). What about the 276 OBP to 336 OBP or the 308 SLG to 400 SLG. Those numbers are huge.
    The difference between a future utility infielder and future upper echelon MLB shortstop.

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  33. Worley, Valle, James, Garcia , DeFratus
    All will have a big league career. James with the highest ceiling.

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  34. Let me do some free writing here: Worley and Valle definitely. I don’t know that Schwimer or DeFratus would make it due to their being relievers, but “proximity to majors” is a factor for me, and these guys are close. I’m not totally sold on Jiwan James. Santana has a high ceiling and is still really fn young. Biddle was very impressive, so he will be on there. Aumont really struggled, even after his demotion. Gillies showed us nothing, other than an alleged ability to get a free base.

    So I’m going with: Worley, Valle, James, Biddle and DeFratus, with Schwimer, James, Santana and Pettibone following close behind.

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  35. Valle, Worley, James, Santana and Rodriguez.

    A week ago, I pulled the stats for the year. I then went through and pulled the guys I thought should be considered for top 30. I ended up with 44 guys. That was a 1st walk-thru. Each of the 44 guys would have been in the top 30 just 2 years ago. What a nice problem to have. Also the top 10 of 2 years ago might have been contentious as to slot but not who the top 10 were. Look at the responses above and you can see that gaining consensus on our top 10 will be tough.

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  36. mike 77
    nowhere did I compare freddy galvis to jimmy rollins offensively, and the batting average disparity was a reference point, not a side by side comparison, pedigree and coaching/upbringing (2nd rd vs intl signing) should account for the difference early in a career, otherwise known as a learning curve. It is also easy to romanticize a player who is clearly on the downside of his career, and ‘upper echelon MLB shortstop’ is no longer a tag I would apply to Rollins. Since the MVP season, and stringent drug testing after the 2007 season, bay area native J-Roll has gone .277, .250, .242 in subsequent seasons…even if he bounces back to his career average of .272 next season, for 8.5 million…would you extend him, at 33 years of age and beyond, for 10 million+…or would you put in a 22 year old SS in 2012, at 400 K, who is/will be a better defensive shortstop at the time…allowing you to keep oswalt in his option year while freeing up cash to re-sign cole hamels.
    I was simply stating his value in relation to MLB readiness/need. The big club has moved him through the ranks quickly and seems less concerned with him excelling initially in the majors offensively, but rather need him to excel defensively and tread above the mendoza line in the 8 hole while the team picks up the slack in front of him.
    I will take the 9.6mil minimum in savings, coupled with the uptick in defense and the solidifying of the pitching staff…over a player on the downside who cannot resist swinging at the first pitch and inflates his own worth to the team coupled with a need to bat lead-off. Valdez has not replaced, but put up comparable numbers this season, and the offense has not been the worse for wear.

    Galvis as a top 10 prospect for his importance to the club both short term and long term…defensive gold glove caliber SS who bats .240-.260 and allows us the $$$ to keep hamels, oswalt(option), et. all

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  37. Forrest/trees … whether Rollins gets extended or not is going to depend upon whether he rebounds a little, whether he can stay healthy, and salary demands (i.e., 10 million a year will indeed be too high.

    But thinking that Galvis, of all people, will replace him is insane. IF Galvis improves GREATLY as a hitter, he would STILL be one of the worst hitters in the league. His upside as a hitter – if everything breaks right for him – would be way, way below average. He is highly unlikely to ever be a starting shortstop in the majors, and if he is, he will start for a non-contender.

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  39. Or, to put it another way, Galvis’ upside as a hitter is significantly below the performance of even the post-MVP Rollins.

    And for the record, I’m departing from my new, nice posting style in response to the assinine “drug testing” comment.

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  40. Big leap of faith to state that Galvis will bat in the .240-.260 range in the majors considering he’s not even doing that at AA Reading. More likely, major league pitchers will knock the bat out of his hands and he will be battling that day’s pitcher to see who is the better hitter.

    Rey Ordonez is probably a close comparison for Galvis right now and Rey Ordonez is not an acception option on a ML playoff team.

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  41. Other “Comparibles” who actually put up better #’s than Freddy Galvis

    Steve Jeltz – at age 23 in AA – .242 with .697 OPS
    Kevin Stocker – at age 22 in AA – .250/.635 OPS
    Desi Relaford – at age 20 in AA – .203/662 OPS
    – age age 21 in AA – .287/.754 OPS
    Thomas Perez – age 22 in AAA (he skipped AA) – .276/.711 OPS

    A show of hands for those who would take any of those guys as the every day SS on the Phillies in 2012??

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  42. 3up I think the game is different now than when those guys played and I don’t think NL teams(especially the Phillies) are willing to sacrifice the offense from a position by deliberately going into the season with a SS who can barely hit over .200. That gives you 2 holes out of 9 (your SS & your pitcher).

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  43. @Tom
    I was not comparing Galvis’ numbers to the major league Jimmy Rollins. I was comparing him to the 20 year old, AA, Jimmy Rollins. Rollins’ AA OPS (740) said he would be a major league hitter from the shortstop position. Gavis’ OPS (586), at the SAME AGE, suggests he can’t hit. Galvis would be challenged trying to make a team in the ’70s, let alone being a starter in today’s game. To suggest he could, based on anything he has shown so far is ridiculous.

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  45. 6. Valle – a solid backstop with good receiving skills and big power potential – a rare combination
    7. Biddle – (is big, lefty, throws hard, has good breaking stuff, decent composure and seems to have his head screwed on right – quite a prospect – exactly the type of guy the Phillies are trying to groom)
    8. Worley (the dude has STUFF – a far better prospect than I ever imagined he would become – a potential solid #3-4 in the making – amazing)
    9. DeFratus (if we didn’t have such a glut of relief pitchers, we’d all be focusing on him a LOT more – in 2 years, he’s the next Ryan Madson; in 3 or 4 years, he’s your closer)
    10. Gillies (just a prediction – next year will be as good for him as this year was bad – still has a huge upside)

    11-20 are packed with guys who easily could, arguably, have been in spots 8-10 including – Rodriguez, Zeid, Altherr, Mathieson (still a prospect, still likely to have a via big league career), James (not as high on him as others are), Aumont, Ramirez, Santana, Pettibone and Shreve, not to mention Hyatt, who could end up being a huge surprise.

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  46. Valle, Biddle, Mathieson, DeFratus, Hernandez
    In 11-20: (just in the order I thought of them) Worley, Rodriguez, Santana, Dugan, Garcia, Schwimer, James, Altherr, Rizzotti, Hyatt

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  47. For anyone entertaining grandiose visions of Freddy Galvis you should know that Rollins isn’t going anywhere – he’s the heart and soul of the club. I expect the team to extend him a couple of years this winter or early next year as they can now do so on terms that are fair for Rollins and favorable to the club. It’s probably a good investment. Hell, it’s worth it just for what he does in the postseason.

    Utley will also be extended although I always think there’s some possibility that he will be moved to third or outfield to extend the life of his career several years. For this reason, I take special interest in Harold Garcia, a player that Ruben Amaro likes a lot.

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  48. Quick thoughts on some oft-mentioned players outside my top 10.

    Harold Garcia: I see him as a similar player to Danny Richar. Good player with positive traits, but I don’t think it adds up to a major league second baseman.

    Cesar Hernandez: His plate discipline sets him apart from Garcia and makes him a better prospect. Potential leadoff hitter.

    Justin DeFratus: Latest issue of Baseball America has him touching 98 mph on the radar gun. Can’t rate a pure reliever in the top 10, but he’s a great arm.

    Jesse Biddle: Top 10 rating is premature IMO. He still needs to work on his command and at the game I saw him pitch he sat 90-91 mph on the radar gun.

    Jonathan Pettibone: As I noted earlier, Pettibone just doesn’t miss bats. K/9 ratio is below 6.0 despite the live arm.

    Vance Worley: Worley is a tough pitcher to rate. He obviously took a huge step forward this season. I don’t rate proximity to the majors as high as some other posters, but the fact that he showed he can survive in the majors at a young age is a plus. If I reshuffle my top 10, I don’t think I can justify rating Worley below Ramirez.

    Freddy Galvis: Not an MLB caliber hitter by any stretch. But it is fair to note that if he played in the NY-Penn League his hitting numbers would look better and we might rave about him as a prospect.

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  49. Alan, JMO,
    Although I have Worley ahead of Ramirez, I can see justification in placing Ramirez ahead of Worley. This is about projection. Ramirez handled AA better than Worley did at the same age. By most accounts, Ramirez has a better arm. I can easily see justification, if you believe Ramirez is capable of the same kind of improvement as Worle when repeating that level.

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  53. “But it is fair to note that if he played in the NY-Penn League his hitting numbers would look better and we might rave about him as a prospect”

    This statement is problably true but since he is playing at Reading his weaknesses as a hitter have been exposed. If in 1-2 years and while he’s still only 21 or 22 and he’s at AA/AAA putting up an acceptable OPS then my rating will certainly increase but today, he’s not a top-10 prospect.

    My bigger issue with Galvis is that he’s hasn’t shown any offensive trait that is even projectable. He doesn’t take walks; he’s not particulary fast; and he has shown no power with only 25 extra base hits in over 500 plate appearances. Other than some overall improvement based on physical maturity and playing experience I don’t see a “tool” waiting to be tapped.

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  54. Yes you are right can’t spell. Galvis I totally forgot, he is major league ready as a defensive shortstop, will he hit is a big question, but based on that he is ahead of ramirez who shows nothing, and Aumont who was terrible number from the second half of 2009 to 2010. and athtleer

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  55. I’m not big on rating relief pitchers in the top 10, but a future closer is a different matter altogether. In the market, a closer is an $8-12 million a year player, so having a young guy who can do that job is worth the high ranking as a result of the monetary savings that can follow.

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  56. The problem is figuring the difference between future closer and just a really good relief pitcher. 10 pitchers are paid north of $8 million a year. Relief pitchers are so volitale that it is simply near impossible to predict who will reach that level.

    (Going through those 10 and their minor league stats is eye-popping. Joe Nathan put up a 7.29 ERA as a 26 year old in the Giants’ minor league system! And Trevor Hoffman played a full minor league season as a shortstop.)

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  57. I should elaborate on my comment a little more, especially since I’m in the midst of reading Kevin Kerrane’s excellent “Dollar Sign On the Muscle.” (A great book for readers of this site especially as Kerrane sat in the draft room with the Phillies in 1981.) Ultimately what a good scout does is envision a player not in terms of performance, but in terms of tools. The idea is to take those tools and develop the player into the role best suited for him. You end up taking a third baseman like Bob Boone and making him a standout catcher, or taking Richie Ashburn from behind the plate and making him a center fielder.

    The point is that it’s so difficult to evaluate future bullpen talent because pitchers aren’t used in the minors the same way they are used in the majors. It’s rare to see situational lefties even in AAA. Most relievers come in with the expectation of pitching at least an inning, often more. Most organizations use their best arms as starters and convert them later. And often pitchers improve something little in their approach and rocket to the majors from obscurity. So figuring out the best relief arms without seeing them personally and with a scout’s eye is nearly impossible.

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  59. So we give Galvis two more years at AA Reading to see if he can conjure up some hitting skills, adequate enough to play MLB SS. Willing to do that, but…isn’t it obvious that he is weak at swinging a bat to call for an off season conditioning program to add 10-15 pounds of muscle? At that position we have another physically challenged J-Roll who has yet to recover from his ’08 excesses. Why not INSIST on his doing the same kind of program as Galvis but focused on limberness, stretching, and yoga. A multi-year contract for him is a leap of faith given his 1/2 season’s loss from one nagging injury after another…as well as in ’09. Without that, won’t we be stuck with J-Roll (my favorite Phillie) at SS with guys like Valdez essential to fill in for 50-60 games? It’s tough to make that kind of multi-year commitment @ million$ unless that kind of physical change is obtained. It may take watching him during the ’11 season before any commitment is made.

    IMO, the minor-leaguer likely to make a significant impact for the big club in ’11 is DeFratus, given that Worley and Brown are already MLB participants. The other guy who could sneak onto our staff sometime in ’11 is Hyatt who is starting but could be a long/short reliever with his great stuff, mainly his slider.

    Hyatt, DeFratus, Garcia, Pettibone, J-Rod in no particular order.

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  61. By the way…who believes that Worley is good enough to allow Kendrick to be packaged for a UPS move? Or do the Phils hang on to him hoping the rest of his pitching possibilities come into focus? He has been “the girl with the curl.” Bad and good equally.

    Since Worley seems (maybe) capable of being #5 anf IMO Hyatt is not far behind, and Mathieson and DeFratus have real shots at joining the relief corps, would you take a chance and greet Kendrick goodbye?

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  62. Kendrick is arb eligible for the first time this year. IMO there is a good chance the Phils non-tender him if they feel Worley can get the job done.

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  63. Mlbtraderumors, Baseball reference and Cots say he is arbitration eligible, but some have said he is not. I don’t know what to believe.
    One thing though(if he is eligible). I do not think it is a slam dunk that he gets tendered a contract. Kendrick had numbers that an arbiter may use to give him a huge raise. The Phillies don’t always offer arbitration to pitchers with numbers better than their talent.

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  64. I will echo my prior opinion that Kendrick is a valuable insurance policy. He is a proven starter which is more than we can say about Worley. After Worley (who is the 6th starter and will likely get a decent amount of starts), who else could be in the rotation in 2011. Carpenter, Naylor, Flande all have flatlined in the minors. Ramirez and Hyatt still need to prove they are quality AA pitchers.

    Only way I see Kendrick non-tendered is if Dubee is just sick of Kendrick’s mistakes or the Phillies sign an injury reclaimation project like Brandon Webb or Moyer.

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  65. I like Markymark’s 6-10 so I will go with that.

    I really think Pettibone is going to take the next step next year after he tasted some success this past year. Size with a good sinking fastball (I believe that is the scouting report I read) goes a long way. I heard his fastball was hitting 95 and 96 mph late in the year.

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  66. Kendrick WILL be arb eligible. He has accumulated enough service time this year to be a “super two.” He will have 4 arbitration years. I believe he has one option year remaining. He was called up in 2007 and optioned in 2009 and 2010. I really can’t see the wisdom in paying him more than league minimum.

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  67. Well trading him (Kendrick) would not be out of the question. He was credited with double figure wins in ’10…even though you’d never name him “reliable.” He is still in his mid 2os (26-27?) and since starting pitchers are a valuable commodity, maybe especially ones who not only have won games, but also have suffered no arm problems to my knowledge. How about for a lefty reliever?…and a prospect in an A Class team who has some good possibilities??

    Just wondering.

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  69. kendrick had 12 quality starts. didnt realize how bad he has been, worley will get a shot for sure, wondering if there are any other guys we have who might pop up to replace him in the system

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  71. Kendrick has not done bad in his stint as a #5 pitcher. He has double digits in wins in three of the four years and his record is 35-24 with a 4.69 ERA. That being said I hope Worley gets a long look at the #5 spot in the rotation. I’m not sure who the next guy in the system will be to get a look at starter. I guess Flande and Naylor will be in AAA but don’t see them projected to the big league level. JC Ramirez could be a name. Hopefully he can bounce back from the injury and Austin Hyatt will be a name to watch as well. The kids at from Lakewood (May, Cosart, Colvin, Pettibone, JRod) are all a few years away.

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  72. just based on a gut feeling, after watching the season unfold and listening to what charlie and dubee said and sometimes didn’t say, but i would be surprised if kendrick isn’t traded in the off season, possibly for a bullpen piece. he has some value in the market and there are starter hungry teams, that will be attracted to his 10 win season. i think kendrick is not a bad 5th starter, but i just feel that they have seen enough.

    i also think they will not go with baez next season. they have demonstrated that they are not afraid to dump contracts of players they don’t trust e. g. jenkins and others. baez has proven he can’t be relied on.

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  73. On Galvis:

    The bads: With no power, he’d have to be a solid slap hitter (.270+), bunt well, and take walks to be an offensive contributor. Don’t know about the bunting, but he does neither of the other two.

    The possible goods: He is young, as mentioned. He has 2 or 3 streaks each season where he gets a few multiple hit games, even hits one out, gets a few doubles. So he can lock in on a hitting stroke at times, or maybe it’s just a series of mediocre pitchers over a few days. Larry Bowa hit the weight room big time after hitting .211 in 1973. Came back muscled up and started ripping line drives down the line a few gappers and more than his best of 1 HR in previous years. Did not hurt Bowa’s fielding at all. He made AS 3 times, was 3rd in MVP voting in 1978 (mainly on glove and improved hitting). I don’t see Galvis having this success, but a guy like him should make it his goal to become a little powderkeg of offensive spark, should really develop a solid line drive stroke and plate patience. If he insists on “maintaining his flexibility” for fielding, he does not deserve to make it, purely on stupidity. That last thought was just my speculation on a possible reason Galvis does not muscle up. Him not going to the weight room like Rizzotti did last year is like not stooping over to pick up a satchel with million sin it.

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  74. I guess it depends on what he would get in arbitration, but I think dumping Kendrick would be foolish. Can’t have too much starting pitching depth. Let him compete with Worley in ST. If he doesn’t make the team put him in AAA. He’ll be needed soon enough.

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  75. Moving Worley into the #5 spot over the suggested Trevor May, then put May in #6…Biddle #7,,,,Julio Rodriguez #8… S. Valle #9…..Aumont #10.
    DeFratus now pitching in an International Tournament..
    Kendrick significant MLB time in ’07,’08 ‘,09, 10, yet still they have as less than 3 years service. Claim his service time is 2 years and something. If the and something is in the top 16 % of the 2 year service time players with expiring contracts this offseason he will be eligible for arbitration. Since the arbitration hearings are conducted by Labor Law experienced people and not necessarily baseball people, they tend to follow certain normal statistical production standards such as wins, Innings pitched and the like, Kendrick could very likely get more than some might expect. A non-tender is possible. Replacements: I figure about 5 million to add players after all the moves go down, and maybe 5 openings to fill , so maybe they look internal. Internal Options by ranking: Worley , Herndon, (Carpenter, Naylor, Flande, Cisco, Hyatt, J.C. Ramirez as AAA-MLB options after season begins).

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  76. kendrick has not done bad? 12 quality starts out of 31 is that consider good for a number 5 ? really dont know the answer. what does pre arb mean anyone know?

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  77. Having a sixth guy capably of starting is always a good option provided that insurance doesn’t cost too much (a AAA test guy with options left is best). I wonder if Moyer would be interested in coming back next year, and if so would it be for less than Kendrick would make in Arbitration?

    Worley had a few nice outings, but I just don’t see Charlie handing him the #5 spot based on that. I think we use a veteran for our fifth starter and Worley is the #6 guy that either relieves, or more likely, swings between the Majors and AAA due to his having options. That’s one of the function of the minor leagues. Stashing your sixth starter.

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  78. Mikemike,

    Quality Starts. 92 pitchers qualified for the ERA title this season (162 innings pitched). Kendrick actually had 14 quality starts, which works out to 45% of his total starts. If you rate pitchers by percentage of quality starts, Kendrick finished 83rd out of the 92 qualifying pitchers. It seems to me that most pitchers appreciably worse than Kendrick tend to lose their jobs. The median percentage is somewhere around 60%.

    (Two off topic observations when looking at the data. One, King Felix converted 30/34. No one is close to him in the AL. Second, Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants produced one of the lowest quality start ratios in the league and still posted a 3.07 ERA.)

    Pre-arb. Simply means a player has not accumulated enough time in the Majors to qualify for an arbitration raise. The team can simply choose to renew his contract at any pay higher than 80% of his current contract, or the MLB minimum.

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  80. I think you have to keep kk. Having worley as your # 5 and carpenter as your # 6 doesn’t sound good to me. Maybe you sign a guy in the off season to compete for the # 5 but what does that cost?? Kk would be wise to agree to a deal before a hearing and stay with the phils. What contending team would take him?? If he doesn’t sign with the phils he’s looking at the Pittsburgh K.C. Washington curcuit and likely out of the bigs in two years. It would make sense for both sides for him to stay and provide insurance to the phils. He could always fill the long man role if he can’t keep a starting role.

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  81. # 6 Worley
    #7 Valle
    # 8 Defratus
    # 9 Rizotti
    # 10 Hyatt

    Aumont may not even be in my top 30 based on his performance this year , Results do count at some point !

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  82. Kendrick is definately valuable whether he stays or you trade him for some help (lefty reliever or minor league help)…180 ip…so he is durable.

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  83. My 6-10 are Biddle, Valle, Worley, Pettibone, and DeFratus with James, Gillies, and Garcia all close. Biddle, Valle, and Worley are definites for that range but the others could easily move around. Also, I don’t see KK going anywhere although Worley showed enough that I think he’ll be in the mix for the 5th spot. Who knows, Moyer could even come back on a minor league deal to fight for that spot and Herndon could be looked at for that spot as well. Barring injury to 1 through 4, there won’t be any pressure on the 5th starter.

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  84. David Herndon should be in consideration for the #6-#10 prospect. He pitched in some bad luck this season with a BABIP of .354 (average is around .300). He gets more than two ground balls per fly ball and his home runs per nine innings was 0.34 (Roy Halladay was at 0.86 and Cole Hamels was 1.16). If you want to look at a reliever, Ryan Madson was at 0.93. I expect him to pitch at AA or AAA this year and to do very well.

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  87. Herndon spent too much time on the roster to be a prospect.

    “I guess it depends on how much he gets in arbitration…”
    That is exactly the point of the debate of whether Kendrick should be non-tendered. They don’t know what they will pay him. For 10 wins and a mid 4 ERA, an arbiter might award 2 million or more. Every year you can sign a Contreras, Rodrigo Lopez or Nelson Figueroa for half that amount and have no drop off.

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  88. If you could take out April he is 11-9 with an era just over 4. Thats a 4 on many bad teams and a solid 5 on some good teams. On a championship calibre team he is probably a 6, but this is his age 25 season as his b-day is august 26th and should have some value to some teams because of his win % and who may also see some projection left due to his age .

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  89. Every arb eligible player doesn’t go to arbitration. The two sides can agree on a deal before. The phils wouldn’t have to wait on a arbitor to set a price. With one option left on kk’s contract the phils could always send him down and that’s flexibility that is not there with a veteran signee. Btw my 6-10 are valle, worley, shreve, petibone, and biddle

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  90. Mike 77 – I think I would rather have moyer at a 2mil base and 3 mil in potential incentives. Whats your take on the feasability of moyer accepting this down from his 8 mil plus this year. Does anyone think he would be snatched up at that price and do people think he would be better option than worley?

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  91. Man, I forgot about Rizzotti – he probably goes in the late teens for me. That’s taking nothing away from him by the way – there are just a lot of hot pitching prospects.

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  92. @Markymark,
    I believe Moyer would jump at the chance to sign for 2million, even if they didn’t add the incentives. That is exactly what I would be thinking if I were the Phillies. Why offer Kendrick arbitration paying him 2 million, when Vance Worley or Jaime Moyer (on a minor league deal) could do the same for less.

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  93. Markymark, Moyer has an ERA similar to Kendrick and he had his share of bad games. In addition, as Moyer ages he becomes more and more of an injury risk. Kendrick is healthier and probably cheaper. That said, it would be interesting to see Moyer approaching 300 wins in a Phillies uniform. However, I hope that Worley wins the #5 starter job!

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  94. Domonic Brown made the NLDS roster after all, along with Dobbs. The Phillies are only carrying 10 pitchers in this series.

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  95. Worley is a great fit for 6th starter in the minors. No need to rush him. Kendrick had that role this season and pitched nearly every turn.
    Not sure what will happen with Moyer but I agree he is less likely to improve than Kendrick. Plus Kendrick can pitch in the bullpen if needed.
    Herndon is an interesting situation. Will he remain a reliever at AAA?
    2011 AAA Rotation could be: Worley, Carpenter, Naylor, Flande, Herndon. I doubt that will happen since Phillies will likely sign some AAAA guy to ‘compete’ for 5th starter.

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  96. It could be that the Phils sign KK to a one year contract @ $2 mil…and trade him if/when Worley shows well enough to pitch 5th. I do not believe KK will be non-tendered since they would have nothing to show for whatever value he has with other MLB teams for him which, I admit, he still has in MLB.

    And he could be given ST to get his game to a higher level and actually win the 5th, or not.

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  97. Kendrick has nothing left to prove in AAA and he could be a valuable middle reliever, spot starter or mop up guy for not alot of money. Kyle was not horrible with the exception of a few games and won some key games down the stretch and deserves another chance.

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  98. Hard to figure Aumont. Must have been sharp in his start tonight in the Pan-Am Qualifying Tournament in Puerto Rico. He went five inning against the Cubans giving up a run on three hits and striking out 7. He left with a 2-1 lead but the Cubans remained undefeated by coming back to defeat the Canadians 4-2.

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  99. Wouldn’t be better for Dobbs to thank his lucky stars than lie.

    “Dobbs, who the team designated for assignment twice this season, said he did not think about whether he would be on the roster. ”

    Personally I think Worley for Bocock should have that spot. I quess they can always play the injury card.

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  100. Ricky Branch, don’t think its all that hard to figure out Aumont. If he’s throwing strikes he has dominating stuff, when he’s not throwing strikes, he’s a quick exit.

    It’s that swing & miss stuff that keeps him ranked as a top-15 prospect in the organization..

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  101. Its actually terrific to see Aumont do so well against what I assume is a tough Cuban team. Who else do we have playing now? Any word on DeFratus?

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  102. DeFratus has pitched one game, 1.1 innings. One unearned run, one hit, one strikeout. Julio Rodriguez is with Puerto Rico but I can’t find boxscores anywhere for other countries.

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  103. I’m just wondering out loud if we knew that we could keep werth if we traded blanton for full value, signed jamie as our 4 for 2 mil and put worley in as our 5, non tendering KK-freeing up say another potential 2-3 mil. would any one think werth is valuable enough to have these 2 as our bottom of rotation. I think either way we make the playoffs and then we wouldn’t even see JM or KK.

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  104. I don’t see how Moyer commands a spot on next year’s team unless there is some totally unexpected injury or problem. I guess you could sign him for one year at little money and tell him he’s competing for the #5 job. My guess is that he would rather go pitch for another team that he knows could use him. I love Jamie Moyer, but his ego is a lot bigger than it should be when it comes to his current status in the baseball world. That having been said, I could see him winning another 10-12 games next year with the right team. Honestly, if I were the Yankees or Red Sox, I might think about signing him as the possible #5 guy.

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  106. I can see Charlie using Kendrick in a middle or long relieve role (and our #6 SP).
    In Kendrick’s three seasons in the majors (I didn’t count 2009 since he only had 26.1 IP that year in the majors) his splits for BA against were:
    Year vs. LH VS.RH

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  107. I hit enter by mistake. Here’s Kendrick’s splits:

    Year vs. lh vs.rh
    2007 .310 .259
    2008 .331 .285
    2010 .313 .264

    I can see the #5 SP being either Worthy or Moyer (low base, incentive contract)

    An here’s my top 10 prospects:
    Brown,Colvin,Singleton,Cosart,Valle,May,Biddle,James,Worley, and Galvis

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  108. Trevor May ranked 9th on the Florida State League prospect list. Alumni Travis D’Arnaud ranked 5th and Anthony Gose ranked 8th.

    After today, I never want to hear anyone complain about the Roy Halladay trade.

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  109. Can we get a thread to talk about Halladay? I knows theirs other forums but i’d to talk about it with the guys who follow this site.

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  113. I don’t get it, how can Galvis be a prospect when he can’t hit and never could? Just wondering what makes a prospect.

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  114. This from an 10/20 Jim Callis (BA) chat

    Vinnie (Philly): Is Hamels too much of a lofty comparison for Biddle?

    Jim Callis: Too lofty for me. Hamels was a better prospect at the same stage. Biddle may throw a little harder, but he doesn’t have a pitch as good as Hamels’ changeup was at the time. Don’t get me wrong, Biddle is a good prospect, but comparing him to Hamels is a stretch.

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