July 22 Discussion

Box Score Recap

The box scores are back. No trade talk in this posting. Thanks.

GCL Phillies won 7-2.

* Altherr with 2 hits, now at .304, and stole his 10th base.

Williamsport lost 4-3.

Check below for the rest

Lakewood lost 5-4.

* Brody Colvin gives up 4 runs, but again none of them are earned. This is pretty amazing stuff. 9 runs in his last 3 starts, all unearned.

Clearwater won 6-1.

* Jesus Sanchez – 5 IP – 0 ER – 2 H – 0 BB – 5 K. Nice.

Reading lost 4-1.

* Garcia was 2/4, now at .314

Lehigh Valley won 12-8.

* Schwim gets the W, Bastardo gets the SV.
* DomBrown goes 1/5

72 thoughts on “July 22 Discussion”

  1. Aaron Altherr is a beast. I know the GCL is significantly lower level than the NYPenn, but I wonder if he could perform better than Hudson at that level. Hudson must have showed something in extended spring, but Altherr with 2 hits seemingly every game, is hard to ignore.

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  2. I’m wary about quickly promoting a batter with a 22/3 K:BB ratio. Those guys have a way of cooling off in a hurry.

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  3. Alan isnt altheer young? Isn’t the minors for learning? why not give him a taste of williamsport. Lets see if he has anything if he is a legit prospect, most kids learn the strikezone. But some guys dont walk its a fact, there are good players through the years, who walk very little and still hit for high average.

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  4. So what if Altherr does cools off. He will adjust. It would hardly be the end of the world.

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  5. Ahhh, no trade talk. I thought Hyatt was supposed to start in CLW last night but Sanchez started. And a nice job he did: 5IP, 2 H 0R, 5K. Maybe Hyatt’s on his way to Reading?

    Mayberry’s hot right now. He’s screaming for the Phils to think about him (.415 in last 10 games). Schwim has yet to give up a run since his call up to LHV (6 games, 5 2/3 IP). Cisco’s pitching in his 3rd level this year. Started at LHV last night.

    Worley call up reminds me of Kendrick a few year’s back. If he could do something like what Kendrick did in 2007, Yahoo!!! I don’t expect it but he is probably the hottest pitcher in the minors, who could make the jump.

    Harold Garcia continues to impress. What more can I say? After Rizz, he’s got to be the biggest surprise in the organization and I could argue they might be dead even for that award.

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  6. Accidental major-leaguer (heck, accidental AAA player) Brian Bocock has been going nuts lately. An unthinkable 2-homer game last weekend; a homer, double and 6 RBI last night; .371/.410/.714 in his last 10 games. Almost certainly means nothing, but still, didn’t know he was capable of even short spurts like this.

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  7. Mikemike, I’m not suggesting that Altherr is not a legitimate prospect. I’m just saying that if you’re evaluating performance right now, you have to look at the plate discipline as well as the batting average. He will most certainly develop, but I’m not certain he’s ready.

    Re: Mayberry. There are now 1200 AAA plate appearances that say he hits .260 at that level. I’m not getting fooled by his last ten games.

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  8. Both Bonillia and Altherr will be promoted to Williamsport. I will leave it up to the board experts to reason why as I have not seen Williamsport play. Living in Florida I have seen GLC Phillies play and both are standouts. From what I saw Altherr has wheels, can swing it and is smooth in CF. Bonillio has a live arm and keeps it around the plate.
    Phillies are also going to have to do something with Murry. He is 23, older for the league but is tearing it up in the GCL. In the few games I saw he stands out from the rest. Very strong, power and hits to all fields. Plays first but was working out in the OF. Maybe time to see what he can do at a higher level.
    As good as Bonillio looked the pitcher that most stood out to me was Manzanillo. Lefty, athletic, throws very hard and is effortless in his delivery. Ball moved all over the place and I do not think he could throw it straight if he tried.

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  9. I gotta say the Phillies development team is pretty impressive. Each year guys take major leaps forward and give the pharm more breakout guys than the normal teams. Garcia, Rizzotti, Colvin, Cosart, Singleton all have had huge breakouts this year.

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  10. is it just me or is GCL filled with more latino players than in years past. Im not sure if its lack of HS draft picks, or a welcomed uptick in DSL and VSL production but there are some kids down there doing alright for their first time in the states. I hope it keeps up.

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  11. Since I moved here, I have been stopping by the GLC Phillies for a few years. I cannot say there are more latinos than that past but this years team seems to be better than the past years. A couple like Franco and Namato who I think are only 17 or years old are very, very raw.
    Franco has some pop, struggles with footwork at third but has absolute hose for an arm. If he cannot improve at third or the plate he has the arm to be a potentially a very, very hard throwing righty.
    Namato is in the same boat. Smaller kid, slight build and is trying catching for the first time. The heat alone must kill him but man can that kid throw. I have no idea how a kid that small throws that hard?
    Overall it funs to watch the GLC, make my own predications on potential and see what happens.

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  12. dcwildcat –

    I’m hoping/thinking that it’s an uptick in Latino scouting.

    As for Altherr, this is his second pro year, and he is repeating the GCL, so I’m not going to get excited about him until at least he moves to W-Ports

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  13. Clearly Colvin is just selfishly padding his stats.

    Alan is right about exercising caution with Altherr. There’s a tendency to want to promote guys at their first hot streak; there’s a reason Altherr’s in the GCL, and it’s that he’s very raw. No reason to rush him.

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  14. I still would rather see Mayberry platoon with Ibanez to get some production out of left field. He may only be a .260 hitter, but he does have some pop and Ibanez is not a .260 hitter anymore and has no power stroke. He is also better defensively than Raul.

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  16. Williamsport website in game article says Kyrell Hudson is “making great strides in his second professional season’ and describes a couple of great running catches and all. Seen him, arm a + , (known) very athletic, looks like he will hit. They may still add Altherr at WPT anyway , due to the Michael Dabbs promotion to LKW due to the DL injury to Leandro Castro. They have 3 OF’s already who I believe will continue to be regulars, but there is opening for Altherr to work in with them and also DH. Unless they continue to not catch Cameron Rupp (possibly for injury reason) and DH him. Rupp has improved as hitter. Other than that there seems to be DH/OF opening.

    GCL- Steven Malcolm playing regular and starting to hit some. Campaign to move up Christopher Duffy and Patrick Murray both 1B/DH types so far. Maybe they switch with the more polished and experienced at higher College level Jeff Cusick, but I don’ t think that. Maybe they are trying Murray in the OF to move him to the OF/DH opening in WPT. Maikel Franco and Chachee Numata are both 17, I think Numata is 6’2 170 from recollection, and would not say small but taller and slight of build, and maybe he adds weight with age and staying with Catching. They seem to find him an AB every game, and with 2 other young catchers there, none of them gets alot of work in total as yet.

    CLW- seems to be openings in Reading’s rotation now with J. Sanchez and Austin Hyatt seeming to be main candidates to go up. THen perhaps a couple of moves up from Lakewood, if only one I say Joshua Zeid.

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  17. I’m hoping that the issue with Singleton is that pitchers are being more careful with him after his burning hot first half. He’s probably learning the delicate balance of taking the slop they throw at you while being ready to pounce on that one fastball in the zone. I wish we had a first hand report about his ABs recently.

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  18. Cisco started at AAA last night and Worley got called up to Philly so you would think that Hyatt and Sanchez may both have a chance to go to Reading for their next starts. As far as moving prospects up, the org is always trying to balance playing time. W-Port already has lots of prospects playing there (and Dugan out hurt) so moving someone up only works when there can be a ripple effect or they decide to move someone like Hudson down. Btw, Brown played LF for the 2nd straight night with mayberry playing RF. A meaning?

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  19. I never said they should promote Altherr. I just find it interesting that Hudson was promoted over Altherr. Hudson must have outperformed Altherr in extra spring. Is the NYPenn so superior in competition that a superior player bats .170 in that league, while a similar but lesser player bats . 300 in the GCL?

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  21. Looking at the recap from the Lakewood game, Colvin did have a rough first inning, at one point giving up four hits in a row followed by a walk. However, he then settled down for the rest of his outing. It’s nice to see him be able to deal with adversity.

    Harold Garcia is an example of why I love following the minor leagues. He was not even in the top 30 at the beginning of the year, but now we have a 23-year-old 2B in AA with a .417 OBP. Only 51 ABs, but he’s working his way up from “future utility infielder” to “future starter on a second-tier team”. He’s starting to remind me of Jason Donald, though JD had more pop (JD’s 23-year-old year was at Reading and he hit .307/.391/497). Hopefully Garcia can continue to improve and maybe go from “future starter on a second-tier team” to “future starter on a contending team.” One can always dream.

    Jesus Sanchez has had some very encouraging results. I’m sorry if I’ve missed it before, but does anyone have some scouting info on him? Velocity, repertoire, etc.? However, his strikeout rate is low and his FIP is 3.94, suggesting he’s benefitting from the FSL’s tendency to dampen HRs. Plus, can a guy who’s 5’11” and 160 stay a starter?

    Finally, I asked once before but I don’t think anyone answered – what’s the deal with Derrick Mitchell? This is his sixth year, he’s 23, he hasn’t shown much in previous years, but he’s hitting in the middle of the Threshers’ lineup. Any reason the Phils continue to like him? One has to think he is nearing the end of his time with all the young OFs coming down the pike.

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  22. Drew – saw Bonilla pitch twice and was standing next to the guns. He is 89-94 max downwind. He is 6″3 maybe slender build but definitely has the frame to add many pounds. Keeps the ball down for the most part and his secondary pitches are average now but he has clue. I think he is a kid to watch close.

    Mike77 – both Altherr and Bonilla are going up to Williamsport. Why not test them a little – no harm no foul.

    Numato is listed a 6′ and 175. I stood next to him and I think those numbers are a stretch but he only 17. My guess was 5″10 and 160.

    Marfis – I saw a big difference between Murry and Duffy in the field and particularly in the plate. Maybe its that an aluminum bats are a separator from wood and Murry handles a wood bat extremely well and is not fooled by off speed stuff. Good point on your OF comment for him. Agree that maybe they want to get him in the OF to see what they got.
    Again all above are just my opinion from a few observations and I have been told often by my special other that I am usually wrong.

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  23. Thanks gatorhater for the observations. Manzanillo may be the biggest surprise for me on the pitching. We know about Bonilla from the DSL. I do worry that his results are due as much to his polish as to his stuff. He may be more of a reliever at the higher levels of the system. Manzanillo, on the other hand, is much less polished and his success is far beyond what he achieved in the VSL. He had a 5.03 ERA and little command last year. It looks like they tried to get him innings as he was in the rotation much of the year. That suggests that he had better stuff than his record would indicate.

    From your post it looks like that is true. Lefties with decent velocity and movement can get better in a hurry once they learn a little command.

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  25. He made it to XST and was suspended 60 days for Steroids (think I read that, but suspended either way._)

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  26. Wow – Villar has 38 errors. He could become the charter member of the 50 steals/50 errors club.

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  27. If John Manual of BA is to be believed, Villar’s errors are most likely a result of his excellent range and poor field quality/rushed throws. I think errors in general don’t give a good indication of defensive ability, but I think they’re especially misleading in the minors due to the variability in field conditions. In this case, I think we’re better going off the scouting community’s opinion.

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  28. From the comments I heard, RA really loves Harold Garcia – they especially like his make-up. I like the idea of working him in off the bench in the coming years. It’s fine to have some redundancy. Right now, the major league team could use a little redundancy.

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  29. I’ve read similar things about Villar’s glove, and I’m not concerned about the errors – from my experience, the really skilled defensive players have a tendency to make a lot of errors when they are young. Still, that’s a LOT of errors

    – Jeff

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  30. Does anyone realize that if the season ended today, the Phillies would draft around 11th in next June’s draft?

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  31. Colvin’s initial line yesterday looked ok, but that 9 ground-outs to 2 fly-outs is enough to make me smile. The Ks weren’t there yesterday, but that is a great ratio. The overall ration of 1.15 is decent too.

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  33. Garcia has played a little SS in the past, but probably does not have the range/hands for it. I would be fine with him as a utility guy however. I’d rather my backup middle infielder be a little better hitter than fielder if I had a choice, especially if we have guys like Rollins and Utley that do not need late inning defensive replacements.

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  35. Nice to see Altherr and Bonilla both promoted today. Did not notice that Garner was demoted to the GCL yesterday.

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  36. one of the reasons that bonilla and altherr were moved up is because perci garner was demoted and dabbs was promoted.

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  37. In that case, Miguel Alvarez should be moved up to Lakewood so they can stop waisting time on Hewitt and Brian Gump.

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  38. (repeat from late post to previous day)

    BostonPhan, Skunky, PP: Please educate me on BABIP and LD%. I really don’t read deeply and extensively about these two stats, only what I see here. Here is my current understanding:

    –BABIP can be a measure of luck, but does not necessarily reflect 100% luck.

    –LD% is straightforward, just a measure of how many of your batted balls are roughly on a line, compared to grounders and fly balls (balls judged to have significant arc and hang time). So it’s part of the measure of how often you are hitting the ball hard (many ground and fly balls are hit hard too).

    So my confusion is this:

    1. If my LD% goes up, that means I am hitting the ball way better, right? The recent article on Rizzotti, for example, reported his grueling workouts over the winter and desire to give this season everything he had, knowing he did not have a lot of window left as a prospect. His physical improvement and confidence seem to have made him a far better hitter. That’s just my intuitive understanding.

    2. When LD% goes up, BABIP should go up. Again, that’s intuitive, not rocket science. So when BABIP goes up a lot as a result of LD% going up, that would seem to cancel at least some of the luck factor. In fact, if LD% went up a lot, and BABIP went down, stayed the same, or went up only s little, would not that be a measure of bad luck?

    3. When LD% goes down, stays the same, or goes up just a tad, and BABIP goes way up, that’s a clear case of luck.

    Anyway, what’s wrong with my intuitive understanding? It doesn’t seem to jibe with comments I see here at times.

    Thanks in advance.

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  39. Brody Colvin has 3 errors and a .857 fielding percentage. I wonder how much that has contributed to the 18 unearned runs he has allowed.

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  40. LD% should always be referenced when bringing up BABIP. BABIP gets thrown around in arguments in irresponsible manner too often. LD% helps determine whether the average is really luck or a function of the player’s skill. David Wright and Ryan Howard always have high BABIP’s and LD%, because they hit the ball hard.

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  41. DD,

    Not addressed to me, but I’ll take a stab at it. I think you’re basically right, but some caution is needed even when there is a sharp increase in LD%.

    In Rizzoti’s case, and I’m just eyeballing it here (is there even a source for minor league LD% data? I’d love to hear from someone with some actual data), the increase in BABIP is SO high that it (a) can’t be explained entirely or even mostly as a result of increased LD%, and (b) likely isn’t sustainable at that level. With regard to b, I don’t think there are many if any examples of players who can sustain that level of BABIP, and the few that come closest don’t tend to fit Rizzotti’s skills profile (i.e., they tend to be fast guys with even more extreme LD tendencies).

    Now, I don’t think that ANYONE is arguing that his performance this year is entirely a fluke. Just urging caution, and arguing that you can’t throw out ANY data, including his performance in prior years.

    In terms of comments you see here, I think there are a few things going on. Some people indeed don’t “get” the relationship between LD% and BABIP; others don’t emphasize it because they (mostly correctly) think that most of the time for most players it isn’t a huge factor in BABIP (i.e., most players maintain roughly the same LD% profile, and in any event an increase of (say) 10% in LD% would not cause (nearly) a 10% increase in BABIP.

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  42. Diamond Derby – I’ll take a stab at answering some of your questions (others can probably do a better job).

    BABIP is a very complicated subject. Overall, BABIP varies much more between batter to batter than pitcher to pitcher. Basically, batters have some control over whether a batted ball becomes a hit while the pitchers have very limited control. In the battle between pitcher and batter, a pitcher can control whether they walk the batter, whether the batter makes contact, and the type of batted ball (GB vs. FB) but not how hard or where that ball is hit, while the batter has the most control about whether a ball in play becomes a hit. ** That is we use BABIP with pitchers to point to a player getting lucky or unlucky while BABIP is typically considered a skill for batters.

    However, due to the nature of BABIP there will be large fluctuations over small sample sizes. That is why if we see a batter drastically change their BABIP from their previously established level, we may think they are getting lucky. But, as you point out in the case of Rizzotti, the change in BABIP is accompanied by a change in LD% an underlying skill so I would hesitate to say that Rizzotti is getting lucky. What I would say, is that I’m not sure the increase in LD% is sustainable due to it being so out of line with his previous batted ball history, not that he is getting lucky with his balls in play.

    If you’re interested in this subject, I suggest you check out the link below for a much more in depth discussion including comments from Voros the guy who came up with the theory that lead to the popularization of BABIP as a tool (DIPS theory).

    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/simon_gary_cohen_doesnt_understand_derides_sabermetrics/

    **The subject about how much a pitcher can control BABIP is still being sorted out. For most (90% or so I think) pitchers BABIP will fluctuate around .300 regardless of skill (Halladay career .294, Eaton career .301). However, it has been shown that high strikeout pitchers and pitchers with one “trick” pitch (Rivera, and knuckleballers) have lower BABIPs than normal. This shows that while pitchers can influence the quality of contact made by the batter just that for most pitchers this skill is so small that is is overwhelmed by normal statistical noise (luck) and therefore we have no way of knowing actually skill levels.

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  43. After reading LarryM’s comment, I agree that the increase LD% doesn’t account for all the BABIP increase. It is probably a combination of factors.

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  44. Mike77,

    People do indeed misuse BABIP data – on both sides of the debate.

    As to your specific point, I’d agree with you if that data was generally available. It isn’t, at least for minor leaguers. What I see SOME peopel do is to just ASSUME that an increase in BABIP MUST be caused by increased LD%, without having data to support it. Which is, frankly, worse than ignoring LD% altogether.

    Howard does indeed have a good BABIP, which is a matter of talent, not luck. But it’s “only” .329 for his career. The players who are able to sustain substantially higher BABIP numbers tend to be (a) really fast, and/or (b) have extreme LD%s. (See, e.g., Tony Gwynn, .341, Ichiro Suzuki .357). Power hitters may have decent to good LD%s, but not extreme percentages.

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  45. You have to have points of reference for BABIP as with most stats. Either the league average, or a player’s historical average or something. If there is an aberration in BABIP from the norm with all else equal, that’s when you might hypothesize luck is in play. A guy starts hitting more line drives, then generally BABIP goes up. Defense changes things as well (think about the shift against Howard) or injuries (see Ibanez’s second half last year).

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  46. I would add here that, even though I don’t think Rizz is going to be a star, he doesnt HAVE to sustain his BABIP at his current level to be a good or even very good ML hitter. Honestly he’s the kind of guy that tends to be undervalued a bit. The fact that I think he isn’t going to be a star, and that as a 1B/DH he likely doesn’t have a future as a Phillie, doesn’t mean I don’t like him a lot as a player.

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  47. One thing that I think isn’t clear from anything posted yet is that I think it’s generally agreed that hitters vary much more than pitchers in their “real” BABIP. There is far more variance between hitters in BABIP than there is between pitchers.

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  48. DiamondDerby, I think you have it right.

    LarryM, you can get LD% for minor leaguers at minorleaguesplits.com. Here’s Rizzotti: http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=447832

    My point from my post yesterday was that Rizzotti’s LD% is significantly higher this year that in his previous three years in the minors (22.5% vs. 13.5%, 14.2%, and 16.6%). This seems unusual for someone in his mid-20s playing against better pitching. So the question in my mind is how sustainable it is. The more at bats he gets, the more we can trust that this is his new LD%. That’s why I have one foot on the bandwagon and one foot off. There are also some other reasons to remain cautious on his performance that I mentioned, but LD% is probably the most important one.

    In my post I did say that LD% and BABIP are related, but perhaps I should not have presented them as two separate reasons to withhold judgment on Rizzotti. Sorry if that was misleading.

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  49. BP,

    Thanks for the link. Interesting stuff. Interestingly (and not surprisingly) his LD% is lower in Reading, 20.9%, than it was in Clearwater. But it’s also clear that I’m correct that his extreme BABIP can’t be explained just by the LD%. His BABIP is up WAY more than can be explained by the LD%, even if the LD% is real.

    Let’s assume for the sake of argument a more reasonable BABIP of, say, .330, still quite high. That would mean a BA (both levels) around .301, still nice.

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  50. guys, i wouldn’t trust ld/gb/fb percentages in the minors. read an article about how off they are. and that some scorers just don’t note anything.

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  51. Chase Numata with 3 hits today. 5 BBs and only 4 Ks on the year. With Altherr graduating, now I will focus on Numata and Franco.

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  53. Jamie, thanks for that. Very interesting and makes sense. I don’t think I’d throw LD% out completely as there are arguments for why such a trend might occur (read the SOSH thread), but it does explain why a player could increase in LD% as they move up.

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  54. Thanks, all for the informative answers. I have a better understanding now. Good explanations and pretty consistent. So here’s my view on Rizzotti now, equipped with my new wisdom:

    1. There is still probably some luck and plain old “hot hitter” factor in his current performance. It’s difficult to believe a guy goes from a so-so minor league hitter to a .350 hitter. If he could “level off” between .290 and .315 for the next 10 years, I think we’d all be ecstatic.

    2. However, anecdotal info can also be mixed in. See this article:
    http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/high_school/baseball/red_hot_rizzotti_rips_it_up_in_reading_3CPNA2bbwZ3ByOhOHirOzL

    Key quotes:

    a) “[He] came into spring training in the best shape of his life, thanks in large part to his work with Joe Stolzer, Manhattan College’s strength and conditioning coach. ‘He changed everything, made me mentally tough for anything,’ Rizzotti said. ‘If there’s a big prospect on the mound that’s been shoving it the whole season, I’m up there thinking I ran stairs for 40 minutes straight one day, me hitting a fastball shouldn’t be too tough.’”

    b) “He’s continually getting better, he’s learning to utilize the whole field and he’s hitting for power,” Reading manager Steve Roadcap said.”

    That tells me two things. 1) he changed his physical makeup drastically. And 2) as a result, he developed a much higher level of confidence. It’s not a stretch to speculate that someone who handles FBs better and is more confident can wait longer (also reported that Rizzotti waits very well on balls, like Utley) and significantly improve plate discipline, resulting in swinging at more balls that can be driven.

    Anyway, that’s the optimistic view. The caveat is, yes he has definitely moved up a plateau, maybe two rungs up the prospect ladder. But can he sustain that by force of character and discipline through his career? And can he adjust when pitchers find a new achilles heel? Those will be the things to look for.

    Note: here is another very interesting quote from the article:

    “He’s vastly improved since he got here and he vastly improved at first base, too.” (aslo from Roadcap)

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  55. There’s a mental factor that’s part of baseball. It sounds like he has gotten stronger pyshically and mentally. There’s plenty players that can throw in the 90’s but how many can pitch? You need to develope both factors to be a good MLB player and I hope the rizz is on his way to a great career.

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  59. Why would the Phillies sign a 35 year old free agent for AA? You’d think they would promote from Clearwater… This is very odd to me

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  61. Harold Garcia is playing with a purpose. Being left unprotected last year must have inspired him. He is a guaranteed 2 total bases a night at this point.

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  62. Rizz iz having a rough nite and visablly frustrated… 2 k’s and walk. Threw his bat after 2nd k

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  63. Good night so far for Trevor May. 5 ip, 2 hits, 6 Ks and only 1 walk. Would love to see him get himself straightened out

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  65. Best part of Rizz articles linked above:

    “He recognized right away what pitchers were trying to do, and he was taking what they gave him,” Cacciatore said. “If they were pitching him away, he just set up and took it away and then made them made the adjustment on him.

    “He’s gonna make pitchers work to get him out. If you’re gonna beat him, you’ve gotta make some quality pitches, and you can’t just make one, you’ve gotta make three.”

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  67. Wow, Timo Perez.. a blast from the past. Call me crazy, but in a season like this where nobody is banging the door down for playing time at the AA level, it’s fun to see guys like this on the team.

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  68. I wonder if Singleton is starting to hit the wall? His July numbers are pretty bad, maybe a few nights off would do the kid some good. Don’t want to see him lose confidence at such a young age.

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  69. Kinda weird but I’m drinking in a small bar outside of Reading, stood next to Tyson Gillies and Tagg Bozied ordering a beer they are both are quite the ladies men. Other R-phils here are Cody overbeck and Drew Naylor who was named the player of the game and got a certificate to this bar. Guess that’s why they’re here… Just weird seeing these guys outside the ball park. Sorry if it doesn’t go with the convo its just a first for me

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  70. Anybody notice that Santana has been on fire lately? He fell off people’s radar a bit, but I have a feeling that may soon change.

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