Selling the Drama

Other Stuff

It continues in Philly, with Vance Worley, 22, getting called up to the big club one day after Jamie Moyer went down with an elbow strain and Andrew Carpenter lasted one outing (3IP, 3ER) in his latest attempt with the Phils.  Carpenter was optioned back to AAA Lehigh Valley.  One other notable transaction today, from a Phillies perspective had Nelson Figueroa getting picked up on waivers by the Houston Astros.  Worley the Phils 3rd round pick in the ’08 draft has been very strong as of late going 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his 3 July starts for AA Reading.  On the year he is 9-4 with a 3.20 ERA.  He has thrown 112.2 IP, allowed 114 hits, walked 36 and struck out 83.  Opponents are hitting .264 on him for the year with a WHIP of 1.33.

An interesting move to say the least when the presumption was that JA Happ was pulled from yesterdays start for Lehigh Valley after 3 innings in preparation for a possible weekend start for the big club.  That could still happen, but this is interesting nonetheless.  And let the talk continue….

113 thoughts on “Selling the Drama”

  1. Worley could be up in the same capacity as Carpenter – a long man until Happ returns for a start on Sunday (and we acquire another starter for Saturday’s start).

    Like

  2. We’re still short a man on the 25. Carp replaced KK. Worley replaced Carp. Moyer is on the DL. Who else gets the call? Bastardo? Mathieson? Zagurski?

    Like

  3. Maybe they just called Worley up so they can advertise him for a trade as major league ready talent. Boosh! (I’m joking.)

    Like

  4. Congrats to Vance for the promotion. Interesting choice to call him up rather than a guy from Triple A like Stutes or Schwimer or… Savery. Hopefully Worley gets to make an appearance – no matter what happens to his career after that, he can say he made it to the top.

    – Jeff

    Like

  8. I notice that no Phillies transactions have been listed today by MLB … not Moyer to the DL, Worley to the Phils or Carpenter to the Pigs. I assume that’s just a bookkeeping issue.

    Like

  10. With the opening in the Reading rotation you have to figure Sanchez or Hyatt will soon see a promotion.

    Like

  11. mikemike: WHIP = walks + hits per inning

    1.33 is not so great.

    For comparison: Halladay’s WHIP is 1.06. Cliff Lee leads all of baseball with 0.94.

    Like

  12. mikemike … yes. WHIP is walks + hits per inning pitched. A 1.33 WHIP is not horrible but not great. It would rank about 28th in the NL this year.

    Like

  14. Wow, seems to me the players have the upper hand again in the CBA. Negotiate a contract with a team option year AND the requirement to approve a trade which INCLUDES demanding that the option be picked up in a trade.

    Like

  15. I agree: Savery has done nothing to warrant a promotion, but given that he is a first round pick, he will probably be given every shot. In a way, this is probably a sign that the Phils don’t have much faith in him. My guess is that we will see Schwimer and Stutes in the Bigs before Savery

    – Jeff

    Like

  18. Or if they’re 10/5 players (10 years in the majors and 5 with the same team) — then they automatically get the right to veto any trade.

    Like

  19. Best paragraph in the Espn story:

    Teams that have spoken with the Phillies say they have rebuffed all attempts to include in any deal their top hitting prospects, Triple-A outfielder Domonic Brown or Class A first baseman Jonathan Singleton. And an elbow injury to their top pitching prospect, Jarred Cosart, apparently has removed him from any current trade talks as well.

    So everyone’s three favorite prospects look like they will be staying put. That said Colvin has got to be in the disscusions

    Like

  20. We should be seeing Schwimmer and/or Stutes before Savery. No reason for Savery to be called up, but I agree he will be given every chance to earn a chance to be called up. The other two guys are earning their shot.

    Like

  21. that article pretty much shows me that Amaro has a plan and is doing the right thing (in my opinion at least).

    1. Only trade Werth if you get fair or better value back and get rid of his salary.
    2. dont mortgage the future just for Oswalt

    idk why Rube gets so much bashing on here he made one trade that so far can’t even be definitively decided who was the winner. Ok they won so far for 2010 but give the new prospects a break please if we had drafted them instead of trading for them eveyone here would love them unconditionally.

    Like

  23. Will Worley to Phils from AA equal Kendrick to Phils from AA in 2007?
    I like his control better than Kyle’s. He’s got a more varied repertoire that’s superior to Kendrick. I’m not sure he has the one pitch (like KK’s sinker) that will be his signature but I would bet he achieves a higher degree of success.
    I also like his poise on the mound which should serve him well either as a starter or reliever.
    I think he starts on Saturday and stays in the rotation the rest of the year.

    Like

  24. I think we will know whats going on with Happ by Saturday. If hes not moved Happ will start Saturday. That being said though theres still 2 holes in the rotation now.

    Like

  25. of the seven players he shipped out for lee and doc, jason donald is the only one helping a mlb team. taylor has regressed. marson looks like a back up. carrasco and d’arnaud are so-so. knapp hasn’t even pitched this year. drabek has been pretty good to say the least. it looks like the phils have sold high on their prospects. the one big issue looks like they bought high on the players they brought back from seattle.
    B J upton has a bad attitude. i hope the phils don’t bring him in and want to keep him. if they flip him that’s ok but i wish they would go after pitching from tampa. rube is in a great spot where teams want his player (werth) but the player he wants (oswalt) doesn’t really want to go too many places, and not too many teams can afford him. he should be able to get a good return for werth and could possibly not give up too much for a high $ pitcher on a bad team.

    Like

  26. slabs
    MT is hitting .354 for July after .278 for June . Sounds like classic Taylor although slowed by an earlier injury.

    Like

  27. Everybody forgets cardenas. Still think he will be a solid player, not saying the trade was bad or anything like that. but they move him to triple a at a young age and he failed he is near a four hundred hitter in double a. If he was doing that for us we would be saying wow what a prospect. Michael Taylor still has a good shot to help oakland. D’naud is still a baby, so the jury on these kids is still out to dismiss them isnt fair i believe. The one is carrasco who I believe isnt much,the only one of these kids right now who could help us would have been donald as a fillin, but we have gotten good play out of valez.

    Like

  29. amaro sucks because of the Lee trade and the contracts he doles out. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him exercise oswalt’s option and offer him a 2 year, $25 million extension (kidding…well, kind of).

    Also, Haren isn’t getting traded…neither is carmona (due to his contract, which is a good thing since he blows anyway). Realistically it’s gonna be oswalt, sheets, or lilly.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dan-haren-effectively-untouchable/

    Like

  30. I usually think people here overvalue the phils prospects, but I wouldn’t include colvin in an oswalt deal.

    amaro loves overpaying for diminishing returns…someone forward this to him

    Roy Oswalt
    2004: 6.4 WAR
    2005: 6.1 WAR
    2006: 5.7 WAR
    2007: 4.6 WAR
    2008: 3.6 WAR
    2009: 3.1 WAR

    Like

  32. I really dont think we will give up any top prospect, it will most likely be werth. to a team for prospect who will be passed to houston. That seems to be the scenerio.

    Like

  33. That trend line isa little misleading. His 2010 performance projects to be 4.5 WAR or maybe even a bit more.

    I wouldn’t expect him to return to his 2004 to 2006 performance, but for this year and next a rate of 3.5 to 4.0 is a conservative expection and IMO a decent value for the salary, especially given the overpriced market for starting pitching. And if he does pitch at that level, they can pick up the 2012 option. If not, not.

    I agree that guarenteeing the 2012 option now would make him less attractive.

    Like

  34. Don’t know much about Worley except for looking at his stats. Can someone give me a scouting report on him. What does he throw? What kind of speed? Noticed he doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters. Does he just try to work both sides of the plate and pitch to contact? Thanks for the help!

    Like

  35. mikemike: “the jury on these kids is still out to dismiss them isnt fair i believe.”

    the same opinion should be help about Aumont, Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez

    and anonymous hamels contract was great as was holliday’s maybe ryans was a little much but thats what you pay for a to 5 NL and to 10 ML hitter i don’t see what your talking about there

    Like

  37. Larry, a lot of oswalt’s trend has to do with injuries. back issues. for a guy with his frame, that should be cause for concern.

    I’m not saying I wouldn’t take oswalt, but I wouldn’t give up a ton to get him. Especially with the amount of money that the phils will be on the hook for.

    I’m keeping my fingers crossed that amaro doesn’t completely screw this up. Watch him trade for oswalt only to turn around and deal halladay hours later (again kidding, kind of…)

    Like

  38. thebest — the howard contract is an abortion. you don’t give the 3rd best player on your team $25 million a year…two years before you have to.

    I don’t want to get into that again though…

    Like

  39. Nowheels, Taylor hasn’t played as well this year as he did last year. I’m not saying he’s a bust or for that matter any of the guys rube traded. Taylor may never look as good as he did in the phils system last year.

    Like

  40. When the 3rd best player on the team has a better career OPS than the so called best player on the team and the BEST OPS in the majors against RH pitching , you can pay him 25million.

    Like

  41. Howards deal is gonna look like a bargain compared to what fielder and Adrian gonzalez get. Two inferior players to Howard.

    Like

  42. The difference with aumont and ramirez is they have not show anything before this year where taylor cardenas, d’naud have, a mayor difference, gillies show last year he has tools.

    Like

  43. Ryan Howards having a career year with absolutely no protection in the lineup. 3rd best player… come on maybe second. In 2014 his contract will look small to the big free agents signing then.

    Like

  44. Not impressed by the Phillies ‘plan’ thus far.
    I though Figueroa had a ‘free’ pass waiver since he already cleared between May and July? I think the move made sense at the time but looks dumb now.
    We know Carpenter is not that great but why replace him with a starter now when you do not need a starter until Sat? It would have been better to bring up Zagurski for relief duty for three days.
    I think it is time for someone to step on Herndon’s foot and give him turf toe. He needs to go on the DL, then rehab and be back in Sept. He cannot keep a spot. Having Baez is bad enough.

    Why Worley? Isn’t this why the Phils have the ‘experienced’ starters at AAA? Carpenter already disregarded. Happ and Bastardo just gathering innings. Mazone, Duckworth, Bump? Flande, Naylor, Ramirez all have been optioned and are on the 40-man. Why burn Worley for what is likely one or two starts?

    Worley is pitching the best in the minors right now and I guess they hope he has a Kendrick-like performance. At least releasing Castro and Figueroa opened spots on the 40-man.

    Like

  46. slabs
    I quess .354 and 440 OBP for July means nothing to you given MTs past history of suddenly getting adjusted.

    Like

  48. ****Larry, a lot of oswalt’s trend has to do with injuries. back issues. for a guy with his frame, that should be cause for concern.****

    He’s been on the DL maybe twice in his entire career, pitched less than 30 games only ONCE in his entire career and is on that pace this yeaer as well. He’s averaged 208 IP a season in the 8 full years after his rookie year to now…and he’s well on the pace to eclipse 200 again this season.

    He’s durable as hell.

    Like

  49. Greg lol! Did u forget howards Roy, MVP,and world series ring. Maybe you should run your theories by the MVP voters! They seem to prefer Howard’s game.

    Like

  51. “Ryan Howards having a career year”

    I’m not going to get into the “how good is Ryan Howard” issue, as it’s always the same arguments between groups who judge by different standards. But “career year”? Absurd. Lately he’s picked it up to a significant extent, but even now he isn’t having a particularly good year BY HIS OWN STANDARDS. Not even using advanced metrics:

    HRs down (projected to hit 36, which would be a career low for a full season by 9)
    BB down (projected to get 48, which would be a career low for a full season by 27)
    2nd lowest OB% of his career
    Lowest Slg% of his career

    Even RBI, for those who care, are down by his career standards.

    Some of that can be attributed to offense being down league wide, but even taking that into account it is far from a career year. But proving that would mean using some semi-advanced metrics. But you stat phobe don’t like adjusting stats for context anyway, do you?

    2006 was his career year. This year, even with a typical Ryan Howard surge, is below his average performance.

    Like

  52. Greg,
    Howard in 05 won the NL ROY. Gonzalez or Fielder never finish higher than 7th between them.
    06 Howard won the MVP both PF and AG played that season and didn’t even get a VOTE!! LOL!!
    07 Howard finished 5th PF made it up to 3rd and AG made the list at 20.
    08 Howard #2 AG18 and PF 20
    09 Howard 3rd AG 12 and PF 4th.
    the last four years Prince finish with more votes than Howard once.
    Howard is the better player plain and simple and The MVP Voters agree!!

    Like

  53. ***This year, even with a typical Ryan Howard surge, is below his average performance.***

    You’re aware, of course, that offense is down ACROSS the League. Howard is no different than any other major slugger. Its just been a great year for pitching.

    Like

  54. Who cares what the MVP voters say? Every stat that is out there will tell you that Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder are better players and will continue to be better than Ryan Howard. You can’t bring up his hitting with poor line-up protection without bringing up his worst hitting with one of the best lineups in all of baseball. He is a very good player, but as websites like fangraphs will tell you, he is not a top 10 hitter in baseball, while Adrian Gonzalez is, and Prince Fielder was close to before this year.

    Like

  55. Anyone believing Howard is having a great year is dreaming. His OBP is down with his walks. His slugging is down with his HRs and RBIs. Do you think the Phils gave him a long, expensive contract extention and said, “Ryan, stop hitting for power and start hitting singles so you can ove your average up?”
    When all said and done, this is the contract that’s going to be a killer.

    Like

  56. Monk, how’s Howard doing since June 1st?

    Sometimes it takes a bit to adjust when you change your swing/approach. He’s been killing the ball for the past 7-8 weeks now. Howard is the least of the team’s problems.

    Just hit his 22nd HR of the year.

    Like

  57. Nowheels,
    Taylor coming into the year was ranked by BA #29 prospect. Are You trying to tell me he’s moving up on that list with the year he’s having this year?
    My comment was “Taylor hasn’t played as well this YEAR as he did last YEAR”

    You say “I quess .354 and 440 ob% for July means nothing to you” I say good for him he’s hit .354 in the last 3 weeks! I stand behind my comment.
    Taylor hit .320 20HR 84RBI and 21SB in the phils system in 2009.
    This year .272 5HR 57RBI and 9SB. ***BUT he had a good 3 weeks.
    I don’t understand what point your trying to make.

    Like

  58. slabs,

    See, that’s part of what I mean. Those of who, as much as they like Howard and respect his accomplishments, also recognize his limitations, don’t put any weight at all on MVP votes – at least not for modern players, where we have plenty of objective evidence as to player value (the one big gap remain defense; UZR has its problems. But ah … I don’t think anyone thinks that Howard’s MVP voting performance reflects the voters’ impression that his defense is exceptional & significantly increases his value).

    That aside, a brief comment on RBI. Let me maybe try to address this a little differently than normal.

    (1) RBI is MOSTLY a product of two things – a player’s power and BA – basically, total bases, and opportunities with runners on base and in scoring position. The first we already give player’s direct credit for. The second (obviously) doesn’t reflect the player’s value.

    (2) But, some people say, what about “clutch” hitting? For the purposes of this discussion, we will assume that THERE IS SUCH A THING AS CLUTCH HITTING SKILL. Even so, rarely over the course of a career do players have a SIGNIFICANTLY above average “clutch performance.” (It does happen, though arguably no more often than one would expect given “luck.”) Even on a yearly basis, generally speaking, performance in “clutch” situations is a small factor in RBI totals, which are, again, mainly a matter of opportunities plus total bases – not clutch hitting.

    (3) For Ryan Howard in particular, over the course of his career, he has NOT been an exceptional performer in the relevant clutch situations (with RISP and on base). He’s average (considering his skills, i.e., he hits as well as expected given his power/hitting stats). His stellar RBI performance is a factor of (a) his admittedly exceptional power numbers, which he gets, and should get, credit for, and (b) his opportunities – which are, year in and out, at or near the highest in the league.

    (4) THIS year his numbers with RISP are quite good. Given his career numbers, I would tend to attribute that to luck. But even giving him full credit for this year’s “clutch” numbers, he STILL is having a mediocre year by his own standards. That is, any credit you want to give him for “clutch” performance is outweighed by his other numbers, which, as good as some of them are, are below his own standards.

    Like

  59. Jon, do you realize what MVP means? MOST VALUABLE PLAYER. Every year Ryan Howard is more Valuable than those other guys it’s simple just watch the games. He’s a better player and leads his team to the world series. His contract will look reasonable compared to what those guys get who’ve never done anything. You’re confusing “hitters” with baseball player too. Howard is a better player.

    Like

  60. in 2008 he had 610 ab’s and 146 rbi’s. He’s basically knocking in a run 1 out of every 4 at bats in the year they won the world series.

    Like

  61. It is really interesting to see the lengths that Phillies fans will go to prove Ryan Howard is not a great player. The need to denigrate Howard among some Phillies fans is really astonishing.
    I’m old enough to have watched Schmidt for over the last 10 years of his career and as much trash that he took from Phillies fans, he NEVER had Phillies fans going out of their way to prove opposing players were better… and that was with George Brett being a .390 hitting gold glove 3rdbaseman as a contemporary.

    Like

  62. Its really interesting to see people who exaggerate Howard’s value are reduced to parroting the same tired and irrelevant arguments about MVP performance to defend their absurd exaggerations of his value, instead of (a) making logical arguments, or (b) engaging the arguments of those who believe that, while he is a very good player, he has his limitations and has about a 1% chance of being worth the ridiculous contract that he was recently awarded.

    I mean seriously, I could construct a FAR better argument regarding Howard’s value than his defenders. A little advice – if your best argument is MVP voting performance (and he did deserve the award in 2006, a legitimately great (as opposed to just very good) season), you have a lousy argument.

    The difference between Schmidt and Howard is that Schmidt was, despite the beliefs of some ignorant fans (ironically, the same non-statistically inclined people who exaggerate Howard’s value), the best third baseman in the league by far, whereas Howard is far behind Pujols, and, at this stage of his career, a little behind at least a couple of other first basemen.

    Like

  63. Ryans “stats” are down. The entire leagues offenssive stats are down. Please don’t compare him to Fielder either. Fielder is about to eat himself out of the NL. Howard went and lost 25lbs and substantially upgraded his defense. I dont know what people want him to do?

    Like

  64. NEPP,

    Too lazy to run the numbers right now, but Howard’s power decrease is steeper than the league decrease. And of course his drastic BB decrease is not attributable to a league wide decreases at all.

    Look, I’m not saying he’s having a horrible year. I was responding to the absurd claim that he was having a career year. If he continues his typical second half surge, his year will be more or less in line with his post-2006 career, but well short of 2006 (and hence a little below his average performance). Which is great – no one is saying he isn’t a very good player – but not the top first baseman in the league, not even second best.

    And saying that he has been the second or third best positional player on the team over the past couple of years is no insult given the talent & performance of Utley and Werth (the latter of whom, if I am not mistaken, you defended in a thread on another web site).

    Like

  65. Ok, and who decides who is the most valuable player? A bunch of veteran sports writers who until very recently really don’t accept even mildly advanced statistics. But, even when people say well he’s the most valuable player to the Phillies, they’re wrong. Someone who strikes out one in every four at bats is not nearly as valuable as someone like Chase Utley who hits for higher average, and really is not that far behind in OPS. In fact, to be blunt, you have to almost completely go out of your way to ignore every reasonable statistic in baseball to claim that Howard is more valuable than Utley. So, the Bill Conlins on the world can vote for whoever they want. I’ll take the much better arguments of Keith Law any day

    Like

  66. larrym,

    Your trying to compare Howard to Schmidt?? Schmidt played 3b in the 70’s and 80’s. Howard is a 1b in the present day. His teams win, he produces, he puts fans in the seats, the phillies make money off of him. Compare the deal he got to Texiera 180 mil? Howard out performs texiera throughout his career. More awards hr’s etc. and up until last season ws rings. baseball is a business and howard represents the phillies well off the field and on he is a good person for the phils to do business with. other players get paid and get lazy or some have other personal issues that flare up. you never hear about any of that mess with howard. 40hr’s and 135-148 rbi’s a year and a playoff run. he’s well worth the money!!!!!!!

    Like

  67. Jon.
    I’ve watched baseball long enough, I can make up my mind on the quality of players I see and I don’t need K Law to tell me who’s good or bad.

    Like

  68. worley bein called up to be the long man out of the pen but might be used in the deal to get roy oswalt moving him up improves his stock.

    Like

  69. ****(3) For Ryan Howard in particular, over the course of his career, he has NOT been an exceptional performer in the relevant clutch situations (with RISP and on base). He’s average (considering his skills, i.e., he hits as well as expected given his power/hitting stats).****

    Howard career splits:

    RISP: .986 OPS
    Men On: 1.024 OPS
    Bases Empty: .882 OPS

    You were saying?

    Looking things up before making a statement is usually a good thing to do.

    Like

  70. slabs,

    Not sure I have any desire to engage you – as I said, we obviously have very different standards of player evaluation – but on Texiera versus Howard, two points:

    (1) Texiera’s contract was way too high, so saying that Howard’s contract is no worse or even better proves nothing;
    (2) Players should be awarded (in terms of contracts) based upon expected future performance, not past performance. Howard’s value prior to the start of the new contract is irrelevant to valuing the new contract, except to the extent that his past performance predicts future performance. And the simple fact is that even the most optimistic takes on the aging curve suggests that is is extremely unlikely that Howard will be anywhere near worth his new contract. (I’d add that it’s more than a little significant that Texiera was just short of 30 at the start of his big contract; Howard will be 32 1/2. That’s a huge difference).

    Like

  72. NEPP,

    You’re better than this. Please, of all of the people here you’re one of the last guys I want to make look bad, but I did look at the numbers, very carefully …

    (1) His improved performance with RISP is almost entirely a matter of better OBP; in turn, his better OBP is entirely a matter of intentional BBs. That is, his performance with runners in scoring position, in non-intentional BB situations, is almost precisely the same as his overall totals. (Note that even if one illogically gives him credit for the intentional BB, remember we are talking about RBI here. The fact that he has more intentioal BB hardly influences his RBI totals. His BA/SLG% numbers are virtually identical to his overall numbers.)

    (2) The average player has better numbers with runners on base and in scoring position, for two reasons – intentional BB and the advantage of hitting against a pitcher pitching from the stretch.

    Baseball-reference.com has a stat which represents relative performance with RISP. Howard’s career mark is 109, with 100 being average. That might support your argument, a little, except that (again) that’s a product of the fact that he has so many intentional BB.

    Like

  73. “I’ve watched baseball long enough, I can make up my mind on the quality of players I see and I don’t need K Law to tell me who’s good or bad.”

    Which is PRECISELY why your MVP voting performance arguments are so misguided. 🙂

    Okay, don’t mean to rub it in – and I’m sure it’s happened to me – but you don’t see such illuminating self refuting arguments that often. 🙂

    Like

  74. I’ll take Amaro, Law work for the Jays from 2002-2006. the jays never got close to the succes that amaro has been a part of. I’ll take the successful track record.

    Like

  75. One weird statistical quirk – not really sure what to make of it – but the one situation where Howard’s career power performance is legitimately out of line with his overall performance, is with men on first, and ONLY first, where he really is exceptional. But his BA and SLG% with RISP is actually a tad lower (not statistically signficantly so) than his overall BA and SLG%.

    But in the greater scheme of things, the results of that weird split is maybe a dozen extra RBI over the course of his career, if that.

    Like

  76. slabs, if association of an individual to a group’s success is the criteron for measuring capability, then more power to you. Plus, Harvard > Stanford.

    Like

  77. I understand baseball is a business, Howard out performed his contract when he first came up and no doubt will under perform at the end of his career. Howard isn’t a perfect player and he’s not having a “career year”. The guy is a super star in baseball there’s no doubt. Albert pujols is a better player but any other 1b is debatable. compare what the phillies will pay him to the other contracts that the other 1b’s get and you will see it will be reasonable. winning is the most important stat in team sports and howard is a winner.

    Like

  78. LarryM, I’m just pointing out that his statistics dont really support your assertion.

    For his career, he has a 1.034 OPS in “High Leverage” situations and its not just IBBs. His AVG is higher, his SLG is higher, everything is higher. He is simply a good clutch hitter by any metric. Its a big reason he does have so many RBIs. Its not all from being in a good offense batting 4th.

    Low Leverage: .271 AVG .363 OBP .548 SLG .911 OPS
    Medium Leverage: .282 AVG .371OBP .582 SLG .953 OPS
    High Leverage: .299 AVG .397 OBP .636 SLG 1.034 OPS

    You’ll see dips in his Close and Late splits only because he will almost ALWAYS see a team’s best LH Reliever in that situation. He almost never sees a RHP after the 6th inning. He’s a good clutch hitter.

    Like

  79. Well slabs, I think that’s the best argument you can make in favor of the contract. I still don’t buy it.* Partly, again, because we are to some extent talking entirely different languages. For example, I don’t think that players are “winners” in any meaningful sense. Teams win because they have good players, whose performance (aside from individual defense, and even that MAY be changing) is measurable.

    Unlike some stat inclined people, I do believe that there are a few players out there (a very few) whose attitude/clubhouse presence is so bad that they have a negative influence on other player’s performance. But most of those types of players are weeded out before making that majors, and I don’t believe that there is the opposite – i.e., players who increase team wins through “intangibles” or “clubhouse presence,” or any of that crap.

    *I would pay him a LITTLE more than his value, given past contributions, but I think that, over the course of his contract, they may well end up paying him 50 million or more over his value, which is way too much.

    Like

  80. BTW, I agree with the premise that MVP awards are a poor basis for judging players. Yeah, winning one is a good bet that he had a great year but saying a guy came in 5th could mean anything.

    Like

  82. In a free market you pay players in comparison to other players, stats are great and they are a tool to determine a players value but when players stats are close they’re other factors. If I’m running a business and I’m making an investment and have a certain amount of money to spend and I have the option to pay Howard or Prince Fielder there’s no question who’s getting the money, you can look at at stats all you want but it comes down to the names next to the stats they are people and howard is a wise choice to make.

    Like

  83. NEPP,

    High leverage is only tangentially related to RBI. DIRECTLY related is performance with RISP and, to a lesser extent, overall performance with runners on base. And you know I’m right on those points.

    Now, I do find it interesting that he does so well in high leverage situations, while not doing exceptionally well in any of the component situations (e.g., late/close, RISP, etc.), except for runners on first. That MIGHT indicate a flaw in how they calculate high/medium/low leverage situations. Or maybe in SOME sense is is a good “clutch” hitter. Or maybe something else is going on.

    But that isn’t what I was arguing; I was specifically talking about RBIs. And the fact that his BA/SLG performance with RISP is almost precisely the same as his overall totals, is I think CONCLUSIVE evidence that any clutch ability he may or may not have has nothing to do with his RBI totals. Except to the very limited extent that his fine performance with runners on first base and first base ONLY may have given him about a dozen extra RBIs over the course of his career.

    Like

  84. slabs,

    Well your arguments are getting better. But not good enough to justify paying him THAT much in what will almost certainly be his decline years. FWIW, I wouldn’t sign Fielder either (and I bet he gets a lot less than Howard). But the bottom line is this: it’s easy to get a 1B with decent offense. Heck, look at Rizz. Say the Phillies lose as many as 4 wins per year replacing Howard with someone like Rizz (I think that’s incredibly generous to the age 33 to 36 Howard). I simply think that with 25 million a year we could buy a player (or players) at some other, harder to fill, position(s) who would contribute more than 4 wins per year.

    Like

  85. When your consistantly in the top five in MVP voting means your a special player. It shows your a quality player and every once in a while a player jumps up and wins an mvp and you dont see his name there anymore (Rollins). the special players are there every year like Arod, pujols and howards of the world.

    Like

  86. Slabs, please don’t go back to the horrendous MVP argument. You were doing so much better. To paraphrase the best comment from you in this thread, “I’ve watched baseball long enough, I can make up my mind on the quality of players I see and I don’t need a bunch of semi-senile sportswriters to tell me who’s good or bad.”

    Like

  87. Are you guys really shitting on Ryan Howard? He leads the league in HRs and RBIs every year. What more can you ask of the guy? You’re probably the same people that criticized Donovan McNabb when the Eagles were plain in the NFC Championship every year. Amirite?

    Like

  88. Larry we are just gonna have to disagree. Boras represents fielder and he’s gonna suck every penny out of a team cause that’s the type of player/person he and his agent are. Pujols will get a mega deal and fielder will come in under that which will come in above howard. I like the Rizz but come on. In AA howard had 37 hr and 102 rbi in 102 games. were you talking about 4 wins for the phila. phils or the reading phils? i hope the later.

    Like

  89. you compare players to players in MVP voting. if you have such a problem with the mvp voting you must feel the sportswriters are electing the wrong players? who in your mind deserved the Mvp over Joe maurer and Pujols for example I’m just wondering?

    Like

  90. No one is saying Ryan Howard isn’t a great player. If you want to believe in RBIs, good for you. If you want to take the time and spend 5 minutes on the internet for proof on why RBIs are pretty much irrelevant, then I’m sure you will change your mind. The Home Runs with Ryan Howard are great. He probably is the best home run hitter in baseball. Still, with the strikeouts, low walk and on base percentage, combined with the poor defense, he is not the most valuable player on the Phillies, and certainly not a top 5 most valuable player in the league. You really can say whatever you want about MVP voting. It’s a travesty, and will continue to be a travesty for probably the next 10-20 years until more advanced stats are generally accepted. He is a tremendous player and exciting to watch. He just isn’t one of the most valuable players in the league.

    Like

  91. slabs,

    Sometimes they get it right. I have a stopped clock that gets the time right twice a day.

    Please, this is your worst argument by far. And at least have the self awareness to recognize that you yourself, in your Keith Law comment, unintentionally provided one of the best arguments as to WHY the MVP argument is so bad.

    I could name at least a couple dozen players who were more deserving than Howard in the voting starting in 2007. Heck, our own Chase Utley has gotten badly screwed in the voting every year & has been more deserving than Howard every year from 2007 to 2009. But I’m already overdoing it an probably boring people. 🙂

    Like

  92. Chase Utley was the best player on the team for the past 5 years but he never came close to winning an MVP (never even in Top 5). Kinda puts it in perspective.

    Like

  93. I dunno. Maybe you should spend less time studying the importance of obscure stats on the internet and more time watching baseball.

    Like

  94. Oh just one more quick thing about k law, the jays picked russ adams with the #14 pick in 2002 the phils took cole hamels at # 17 and in 06 jays took Travis snyder at 14 the phillies took at 18 kyle drabek.

    Like

  95. Howard won in 2006 and he arguably had a solid case for winning. Pujols had better statistics by a small margin but Howard was a decent choice based on his ridiculous 2nd half that year. Howard also appeared in 16 more games than Albert and the difference in their slash stats was actually pretty small (1.084 OPS vs. 1.102 OPS). I think it was the correct vote when it was all said and done.

    Jimmy’s win is a bit more arguable as he easily did not have the best season in 2oo7. He wasnt even the best player on his own team. It wasn’t a terrible choice but it wasn’t brutal either.

    Like

  96. Once upon a time there was a prospect website that longed for its dictatorial overlord to strike from the record all horrendously off-topic major league ramblings… I mean seriously, is it that hard to head on over to Beerleaguer or one of the other numerous Phillies websites to stage such irrelevant arguments over how many times Ryan Howard voted for Bill Conlin in the 2004 Libertarian primary? I for one would greatly appreciate a policy of erasing all off-topic commentary, and banning those IP addresses that come to make a habit of it. It’s gotten to the point where it’s harder to find a relevant comment on this site than an irrelevant one.

    Like

  97. AMEN bp.

    It’s usually the reason I migrate over here from the depressive cloud that’s been hanging over Beerleaguer lately. In dark times like these, I’ll jump to PP to read about some prospect who could be the next Ryan Howard, Chase Utley or Roy Halladay. The potential in these kids adds an element of optimism that’s hard to find anywhere else.

    It’s a lot to ask for someone to have to police the comments, especially when they have much better things to do….like dream up the next great article.

    It’s easy. Be courteous to the site by keeping the comments prospect-related and respecting the original vision of Phuture Phillies. At worst, let’s keep the other chatter to a minimum.

    Go Phils.

    Like

  98. Love this site because it helps me recognize the players I don’t get to see often. That said I have been on here long enough to see the terrible trend toward merely discussing the MLB team or possible or past trades.

    I will only say this once, but this organization cultivated and brought up the best power hitter of this era. Howard has led the league in HRs and RBIs for a long period overall and by a lot, in fact he has led the league or all of MLB pretty much every complete year he has played. Whatever metrics say, he has been outstanding for his whole career. So I will never understand the argument about him, because almost every other team would take him over there 1B (I guess only Pujols excluded).

    I suppose the issue for me is that so many Phillies fans give a player brought through our own system so much crap when he does so well. Outside of that it is annoying that so many people do it here at a site meant to tell us all about the players we can’t actually see and their progression at an MiLB level. Things are pretty good with the farm system, and I hope we produce more Howards who upset a bunch of you… for all his “awful” play and metrics he does lead the majors in HRs and RBIs over his last 5 years. Or perhaps we can bring up another player who takes the fewest games in MLB history to hit 200 HRs and can upset a bunch of you again. We can only hope.

    Here is to hearing about the Dominic Brown’s, Jared Cosarts, Brody Colvins, and even the Rizzottis who allow us to dream about the next great Phillie, as opposed to hating those “awful” Ryan Howards who cost the big club so many great seasons and pennants.

    Like

  99. After reading through all these posts I wish I had the last few minutes of my life back.

    No one in this thread said that Ryan Howard is a bad player. Is it really a slight on Howard to say he’s worse than Chase Utley, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder? You may disagree with the statement but it doesn’t mean anybody is saying he’s awful. Nobody is trying to run him out of town like people are unjustly trying to do to Werth (mostly the non-stats people, I might add.)

    Home runs and RBIs aren’t the only stats. Carlos Delgado, in the same number of seasons, has more career HRs and RBIs than Chipper Jones. I wouldn’t say Delgado was better than Chipper. I also don’t think that saying one player is better than the other means that I think the other player is “awful.” Delgado was a very good (and underrated) player. In my opinion, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and Joey Votto are currently better than Ryan Howard. I don’t hate Howard. In fact I rather like him and I think it’s fairly close between the four. I appreciate what he does for the team and am glad that he’s going to be around for a while… through ask me again in 4 or 5 years if I’m still glad he’s around 😉

    Like

  100. After reading through all these posts I wish I had the last few minutes of my life back.

    No one in this thread said that Ryan Howard is a bad player. Is it really a slight on Howard to say he’s worse than Chase Utley, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder? You may disagree with the statement but it doesn’t mean anybody is saying he’s awful. Nobody is trying to run him out of town like people are unjustly trying to do to Werth (mostly the non-stats people, I might add.)

    Home runs and RBIs aren’t the only stats. Carlos Delgado, in the same number of seasons, has more career HRs and RBIs than Chipper Jones. I wouldn’t say Delgado was better than Chipper. I also don’t think that saying one player is better than the other means that I think the other player is “awful.” Delgado was a very good (and underrated) player. In my opinion, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and Joey Votto are currently better than Ryan Howard. I don’t hate Howard. In fact I rather like him and I think it’s fairly close between the four. I appreciate what he does for the team and am glad that he’s going to be around for a while… through ask me again in 4 or 5 years if I’m still glad he’s around 😉

    Like

  102. Why the Howard-haters are wrong
    By: thebestrbevr21

    1) when you look at Howard’s contract you not only need to look at his performance on the field, which has throughout his career has been consistently extraordinary, but also how much recognition and revenue he brings to the team. With a player like Ryan Howard that is a lot of positive national publicity as well as jerseys, bobble heads, and whatever else has his name on it that people buy. I’m sure that if you add up the amount he brings in just with his name vs the amount he makes throughout his Philadelphia career, the 2 numbers aren’t too far apart.

    2) The old saying of “you pay for future performance not past performance,” while somewhat truthful when you are speaking of a player who has given any indication of slowing down or has any problems with hard work. But when you are talking about a player like Ryan Howard, he who has averaged 50HR, 140RBI, a .282 AVG, a .953 OPS, and nearly 50% XBH in his FIRST 5 YEARS IN THE LEAGUE. A player who listened to the frequent (yet completely understandable) criticism over his fielding and instead of getting mad at the fans, coaches, or media, worked his butt off int he off-season and came back very noticeably improved; all after he had already won many awards based solely on his hitting. That’s the type of player that you see late in his career still succeeding because he wants to work to be better. That’s the type of player that you give a large contract to and not have to worry about getting a big head.

    3) This is a DOWN year for Ryan Howard, among 1st basemen in the MLB he is: 5th in R, 3rd in Hits, 2nd in Triples, 3rd in HR, 2nd in RBI, 2nd in total bases, 10th in AVG, 4th in IBB

    4) a player cannot be judged simply by one stat is has to be multiple combined stats, isn’t that why “5 tool” players are so highly thought of? I’m in no way saying that Howard is a 5 tool player but he certainly has more than the majority of first basemen. You cannot name me 5 1st basemen that in any 5 years have had a stat line like his.

    5) in 5 of his 6 seasons in the majors, he has batted near or above .270 so the people who rag on him for his high K numbers what are you trying to say? Obviously every player is gonna have negatives to his game as nobody is perfect but he still maintains a respectable to impressive batting average.

    6) The point of baseball is to produce runs and he does that better than almost every other first basemen in of his era. Look at the career numbers of Justin Morneau, Adrian gonzalez, Prince fielder; they have similar (in Morneau’s care more) AB’s but much less HR and RBI, less walk’s, similar avg, and even or lower OPS +

    7) His leadership and intensity are strong points which have helped turn the team into the winning franchise it’s known as today. It wasn’t just Chase Utley in that locker room after Abreu left (although many mention it as such) Howard leads by example and through his words and never gets in trouble off or on the field, never labeled as a team cancer, or a slacker.

    the only outright better major league first basemen than Rhyno are Pujols, Miguel Cabrera. I personally would prefer him over texiera, morneau, and gonzo because baseball, above all else, is about SCORING RUN’S and he produces runs significantly better than those other guys

    In conclusion Ryan Howard A) deserves his contract B) is the 3rd best 1st basemen in MLB over the past 6 years since he’s been in the league. And until someone comes around and starts hitting 140+RBI, 45+HR, and 100R while also batting .270+ or he starts to not get those numbers every season. It will stay that way.

    P.S. I didn’t even mention his world series ring

    Like

  105. Howard doesn’t get enough credit for his RBI. He has a lot of RBI opportunity, but he also cashes them in at a higher rate than comparable sluggers. Look at how he compares to other first basemen since his rookie year in the percentage of baserunners he knocks in:

    Howard … 18.8 percent
    Morneau … 18.5 percent
    Pujols … 18.3 percent
    Berkman … 18.0 percent
    Teixeira … 17.4 percent
    Youkilis … 16.5 percent
    Fielder … 16.4 percent
    Gonzalez … 15.6 percent
    Dunn … 14.3 percent

    The man’s hitting .300, leading the league in RBI and one off the lead in homers. And he’s 5th in slugging percentage. Don’t be surprised if he finishes the year with an OPS+ better than any year in his career except ’06. I agree that he should walk more, but it’s just nuts to claim that he’s having a down year.

    Like

  106. People will think what they want to think. There’s no use bringing facts into this discussion. We need more obscure stats that can only be provided through internet research.

    Back to the topic on hand…

    Is Wade Davis a guy we could get for Werth, since the Rays have Hellickson waiting in AAA? (And is Davis a guy we would want — the results haven’t been there, but he was pretty highly regarded a couple years ago, wasn’t he?)

    Like

  107. Okay, it’s an otherwise dead thread anyway, so …

    Standard disclaimer first. He’s very good, a key part of the Phillies success, etc. My original post in this thread was refuting the absurd claim that he was having a career year. Later this morphed into a discussion of his contract, and that is in large measure more about his likely age related decline over the course of that contract (the contract doesn’t even start for 1 1/2 more years) than about his current value. The debate regarding just how good he is NOW interests me less, especially since the subject is so amorphous – i.e., just where is the dividing line between very good and great? I find the debate about whether he is the (say) 2nd best of 3rd or 4th best 1B in the NL … not interesting or terribly relevant to the questions that interest me (e.g., the contract). But RBIs … the arguments about how valuable his RBIs are are like nails on a blackboard to me.

    Let’s see … you say Howard doesn’t get enough credit for RBI. That almost leaves me speechless. He gets a HUGE amount of credit for his RBI. Except for 2006, he would have never finished in the top 10 of MVP voting without the exceptional RBI totals. Whether it’s TOO much credit is debatable, but not enough credit? The mind boggles.

    Especially given the data that you present (I’ll assume that it is correct), which frankly if anything supports the opposite conclusion. First of all, that success is … I would say entirely, but let’s be generous and say PRIMARILY … a result of his acknowledged excellent power skills. Which he already gets credit for.

    Secondly, he’s really not significantly better on that metric than Morneau , Pujols and Berkman. As for some of those other guys, he is better than some of them, or at least has been over the entirety of his career, and in any event that’s just ONE aspect of being a successful hitter. Looking just at the guys on that list who some people would put a little ahead on him:

    Fielder – my guess is that if you look at 2007 – 2010 his % would be about the same as Howard’s. The fact that Howard was very good in 2005 and awesome in 2006, while Fielder was not yet nearly the player he would become in those years, is IMO not very relevant to who is better NOW. And he has a significantly better OBA. (That said, I don’t think Fielder is likely to age as gracefully as Howard. OTOH, he IS signficantly younger.)

    Gonzalez – same story to some extent. Look at recent performance – his power numbers increased in 2009. Given aging curves, it’s likely that that improvement is real. I’d be shocked if his % of runners driven in in the past 2, even 3 years, isn’t roughly the same as Howard’s. His OBA is also better than Howard’s, and is headed up rather than down.

    It seems to me that if you look at Howard’s career trajectory, even being optimistic about the aging curve, 2006 has almost nothing to do with his CURRENT value. He’s settled in at a level signficantly below that (though, yes, absolutely still valuable). Take 2006 away, and all these comparisons look a lot different.

    As I said, I don’t really care so much about the relative value of Howard/Fielder/Gonzalez. (Though for aging curve reasons alone, I think it’s OBVIOUS that Gonzalez will almost certainly be worth FAR more than Howard over the life of Howard’s new contract. Fielder is a tougher call in that regard.) But the fact is that Howard gets a HUGE amount of credit already for his RBIs, yet his performance in that regard is almost entirely a result of his power hitting prowess and number of opportunities.

    Like

  108. As many have noted, it is difficult to know what to believe with trade talks, so, in the ‘take it for what it’s worth (not Werth)’ department, here’s a link to a Jayson Stark posting re: the Phils and Oswalt: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5398937

    If true, everyone can breathe easier that Singleton and presumably Cosart (even if it’s because of injury) are off limits in a trade.

    Like

  109. Again, dead thread anyway so I feel justfied, but since no one has done a good job defending the Howard contract, I thought I’d step up and do it.

    (1) Howard brings fans to the park, increasing revenue, and does so to a greater extent than would an equivelent FA replacement. The true cost of the contract is the contact minus the increased revenue he generates.

    (2) Since pre-FA agent players are, in the aggragate, underpaid by a lot, post FA players are (by definition) “overpaid” in terms of their value (i.e., the systems that trys to place a later value on players – and it’s those systems which are being used to trash the deal -value all players the same. But the result is that the TYPICAL post-FA player will look “over paid.” That’s a good reason to try to build around cheap pre-FA players. But even the best farm system/scouting/drafting can’t produce enough pre-FA talent to win by itself. You need post-FA talent, and the market is such that you’re going to have to “overpay” a bit for it.

    (3) While Howard will almost certainly lose some of his value as the contract progresses, there is a lot of evidence that the aging curve is more genetle for modern players, and some evidence that it is more gentle for star level players. In this context, his ability to control his weight & his conditioning program, while not a HUGE factor (most players these days do a good job at off season conditioning, likely one reason that the aging curve has flattened a little), is encouraging.

    (4) Salaries increase league wide almost every year. If salaries increase 10% per year, we can “discount” the value of Howard’s contract by 30%) (There is evidence that salary growth is slowing, however, so caution is needed in accepting this argument.)

    There. I still don’t buy it, but if there is a defense, that’s it. 🙂

    Like

  111. Iwas looking at wade davis numbers, Really do people think he is that good??? or upton. not by there numbers or maybe I read the wrong numbers. If tampa bay wants werth its hellison or he doesnt go, approach boston and see what they would give. San Francisco

    Like

  112. They’re both young major league players, who are cheap and can be controlled for several years. So, it seems like trading two months of Werth for either of them would be a fair trade.

    I don’t know much about Davis, but I remember reading a couple years ago that people were saying he had top of the rotation potential — obviously, he’s not there yet.

    Like

Comments are closed.