I give the scores, you rant and rave.
GCL Phillies lost 2-0 and lost 2-1.
Williamsport won 3-2.
Lakewood lost 3-2.
Clearwater won 5-1.
Reading lost 5-3.
* Jiwan James now has a 20 game hitting streak
* Jim Salisbury reports that Jarred Cosart saw Dr Andrews and was given a clean bill of health. Which is good, obviously.
Phuture Phillies 
I wanted to point out a few guys who have flown under the radar so far this year: Chase Johnson & Aaron Altherr.
Johnson is a 6’5″ 22 year old drafted in the 2009 21st round. He’s a CC guy who is performing well in Williamsport. In 9 games, he has 8 saves. He’s pitched 10 innings with 8 Hits, 1 ER, 9Ks and 7 BBs for a .90 ERA. He has to limit the BBs and maybe K a few more but he’s solid as a closer right now.
Altherr is one of those toolsy OF that the Phils are so famous for. He’s a big kid (6’5″) drafted in the 9th round in 2009. He was listed as one of those guys the Phils hope will become the next Dom Brown. Wouldn’t that be nice? He’s batting .291 (23/79) with 5 doubles, 1 Triple and 8 RBIs from the leadoff spot. He has 8 SB in 9 tries. With his size, I would expect the power numbers to increase but in the leadoff spot they need him to get on base. .291 doesn’t sound so good but he is 2nd on the team in Batting Average.
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Good to see Jiwan James doing so well. Gives us more depth on CF in the minors. I hope Gillies can bounce back whether this year or next.
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I see both Bastardo and Durbin pitched for clearwater last night and pitched well. Going to be interesting in the next few days to see how they move around the roster pieces.
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.291 ain’t good enough for you, huh. What do you expect, everybody should hit .330 or something. Here’s a little downside to Altherr (if I remember exactly from a couple hours back) 1 Walk, 14 Strike Outs. Nevertheless, they just might switch Altherr with Kyrel Hudson in Williamsport, as Hudson is hitting .117, and they only have 3 OF’s not including Michael Dabbs who has been the DH , for the most part.
Williamsport game, relatively good performances by David Buchanan (5 IP) and Garrett Claypool (3 IP), maybe some more solidity from College Draftees.
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Something I posted a few days ago to put Alther’s performance in perspective:
Tom says:
July 12, 2010 at 3:01 PM
A guy I’m starting to pay attention to more and more is Aaron Altherr … he’s similar in size to Dom Brown at 6’5″ and 190 lbs. With todays 3-7 performance, he’s up to .291 after 75 ABs. Not showing much power, but when you look at Dom Brown’s GCL figures (.214/.292/.265 in 117 ABs), it can put it into a whole new context. He’s only got 1 walk, but is 8-9 in Stolen Bases. Dom Brown played his GCL year as an 18 year old while Altherr is 19. So I will be following him very closely this year and into the future.
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I thought the same thing. Altherr keeps hitting, maybe they move him up to Williamsport and move Hudson back to the GCL. Maybe not. Hudson must have shown something more than Altherr in extended spring that led to one being promoted over the other.
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When do we get a toolsy third base guy.
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Last ten games it looks like Overbeck is beginning to make the adjustment to Reading. Good sign.
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Domingo Sanatana seems to doing better in Williamsport. Hopefully he can catch on at Lakewood for the whole year next year.
Harold Garcia has transitioned decently to AA. Hopefully this is just him getting his feet wet and the batting line will pick up as the year wraps up.
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Matt Rizzotti 2-5 in last game before EL All Star game thursday nite. Good luck Matt!
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My Altherr comment on his BA was trying to head off the expected smack-down. It would go something like this, .291, you think that’s good in Rookie league ball when he already played in 28 games there last year? He’s 19 for pete’s sake. He’s barely in the top 25 in the league in hitting. I could go on.
I like him a lot and if he becomes the right-handed Dom Brown, I’ll do back flips across the outfield in CBP. You’ll want to pay to see that. Can anyone say traction for the rest of my life?
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One thing that rings out from comments on this site is the lack of patience many have in minor leaguers. With the Phils taking raw guys with upside pretty much all the time, the need for patience is greater within this org. than most. I mean, who knew Dom Brown his 1st year? Not every guy will make it, but it seems the Phils are winning more of these gambles than losing, so let’s give this year’s draftees and the Altherr’s of the world the benefit of the doubt.
Nowwheels: The toolsy 3b man was moved to the outfield and still unable to put the tools together; Hewitt. Now, there is a guy who after 2 1/2 seasons has made little progress. I can understand a lack of patience there.
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After last night’s two singles Dom Santana continues to hit NY-Penn lefthanded pitching now 10 for 18 for the season, ( .556 BA, 1.378 OPS). But the good news is that his homer last night was off a righty. He is hitting only .206 against them.
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To add to Charlie Hustle, even when people did know of Dom Brown, everyone wanted to trade him over Taylor. Looks like the Phillies were right. Have some faith and patience. The system has talent and the Phillies seem to be able to develop the talent, which many organizations fail to do.
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Saw the Cutters play on Sunday, Santana hit the ball very hard…about 2 feet away from a Homerun on the first at bat, though his swing still does look a bit long. He still appears to have a lot of talent. Another great start for Pettis, mowed them down after a bit shaky of a first inning. He went 8, and I guess they are monitoring pitch counts and such, but he wasn’t struggling, they should have let him pitch 9 to keep the shutout.
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It looks like Nick Hernandez pitched the first 2 innings of the GCL game today.
2 innings, 0 runs, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K
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LHP Nick Hernandez with 2 innings (1H, 0R, 1BB, 1K) this morning in a rehab start for the GCL Phillies. 16 year old RHP Miguel Nunez on in relief and looking good through 3 IP (1H, 0R, 0BB, 2K).
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Next year’s starting OF in Lakewood – Gauntlett Eldemire, Aaron Altherr and Domingo Santana with Kelly Dugan rotating in and DHing? Does Zach Collier get held there again since this season is a complete washout?
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Section 205 – I think that’s a bit over the top to say everyone wanted to trade Dom Brown over Michael Taylor. I actually think the opposite. People just didn’t want to see Taylor moved is all.
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domingo santana’s home run went an estimated 430ft over the center field wall. Chase Johnson gets a lot of ground balls. I have been impressed lately with the way some of the people have been performing at williamsport. I saw that kelly dugan was placed on the 7day dl.
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phew thanks for the Cosart update.
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I did not want to trade either Brown or Taylor. However, I did question Phils preference for Brown, given that Taylor has his own package of exceptional tools and was performing at a higher level. I felt Phils might have been blinded by Brown’s flashy tools and that Brown could have wound up a so-so- big leaguer while Taylor was hitting .320 as a RH presence in the lineup.
I still think that was reasonable skepticism, but it looks today like I was wrong leaning toward Taylor as a better bet.
Don’t forget to keep an open mind on Taylor. As someone else said yesterday here on or some board, you don’t just forget to hit like that. And Taylor’s instincts in OF and on bases are not as raw as Brown’s.
That said, I love Brown now that I have seen improved performance at upper levels, something you look for in a potential star. Much like Howard, Richie Allen, etc.
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I don’t think Altherr has tp be a RH Dom Brown to have good value. I will take .291, with maturing power stroke and good speed on bases and in OF all the way up tp AAA. If that makes him a 4th OF or an avg OF in majors, that’s a good asset too.
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Glad to see that Austin Hyatt is back on track . In his last 5 starts he probably has the best numbers in the organization . 24 innings / 2 ER / 33K with only 6 walks
He should be in Reading since he is 24 yrs old
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I really do not mean it as a shot at anyone on the site. Quite frankly, Taylor looked like protection for Werth leaving, which is happening this year, while Brown looked like protection for Ibanez leaving, which is next year. My basic point was just that when Brown was drafted, none of us would have thought he was the best player we would get from that draft, even as he progressed, we still had other prospects we liked better. I think I wanted to keep both outfielders and put Happ in the trade, as I thought he was lucky. Turns out he can pitch, not lucky, but looks like he will have injury concerns, which would have been a reason to trade as well. You just never know…
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Altherr with another 2 hits today. He probably has as many multiple hit days as anyone not named Rizzotti or Garcia.
On being a RH Dom Brown: He is not displaying the same discipline as Brown at the same level, so I don’t see the comp.
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I have to assume that Hyatt was hurting for awhile and now feels better. How else can you explain his transformation from stud to bum and now back to stud. His recent numbers are unbelievable again. he’s either back to feeling healthy or he figured something out. Either way, he’ll be in Reading soon. Seeing Hernandez back on the mound is great and who isn’t excited about a 16 yr old pitcher throwing 3 shutout innings with 1 hit and no walks.
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The only point I was trying to make was that when you draft raw guys, they will show flashes of potential but most often lack consistency until it kicks in-if it kicks in. Both Taylor and Brown were tools guys and I think both can be good players. I just don’t think it makes sense to question things like Perci Garner after 2 bad starts or whomever else. You need to afford them time to receive instruction and see what happens. All I know is this system is replenishing itself as we speak after trading away 7 top guys. So, I will trust the Phils to bring more guys along.
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I am excited to see Hernandez pitching again as well.
I like to see progress, and I feel Altherr is progressing, althought ot echo Mike77 – plate discipline is lacking.
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Does anyone else find it weird that Gauntlett isn’t playing anywhere? Is he injured or something?
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Section 205: Did not take it as a shot at anyone. Just thought it was worth making the point in retrospect that Taylor looked like he might have had the edge last year and before, but Phils knew something most of us could not know who do not see him live a lot. Very quick whip-like swing, raw power, great makeup, etc. Those reports were there, but unless you see it up close with a trained scouting eye, you do not have the full view. I am congratulating Phils on good evaluation.
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Gauntlett had surgery and will not play this year.
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Charlie H: agree on patience with Garner. We do not know what is going on. Injury, tiredness, adjustment to pro ball, many, many things argue for giving guys a lot of room to have their differences in when they make an impact. If he has great raw stuff, the keys are patience and good coaching. If he’s injured, let him recover. Even small injuries can throw a pitcher off big time.
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A lot of posters are getting carried away with tools. It’s nice to have in the later rounds, but give me baseball players in the top 2 rounds. If you look at the team the Phils now field, are those baseball players with tools or players that had tools who turned them into baseball skills? I’ll argue for the former.
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FWIW, the 6’6” Miguel Nunez is 17 (not 16) and will turn 18 in October.
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4 starter from there system, second ,first, fifth, rounds and freeagent, to my little knowlegde none of them were toolsy.
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Joe Bisenius sighting at the Reading game.
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Dave Cameron says Dom Brown is in the top 50 of trade value of everyone in baseball.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2010-trade-value-50-46/
Seems likely he will be the only prospect (meaning 0 ML abs) on the list. I wonder if Halladay and his below market extension will make it.
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Drafting baseball players that lack tools makes you have a minor league system full of Jeremy Barnes and Jim Murphys.
Michael Taylor and Ryan Howard were players with raw tools that had to be refined to become successful baseball players. Honestly, I don’t understand why certain guys on this site hate players with tools (athletes). The athleticism (tools) allows them become stars and not just average.
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Hey monk,
It is what it is. That is the way they operate, so we just have to root for the guys to progress. I would rather have sure fire guys in the top 2 rounds too, but they don’t do it that way. As far as tools, all I can say is today we talk about guys with potential. 20 years ago we spoke of Legg, Sefcik, Schu and other assorted white guys without tools. The entire minor league system was cloned and without ceiling. I like being able to hope for guys to make it big. Who knows what Jiwan James can become?? Most likely it will be better than Tori Luvullo et al.
Not to mention the assortment of pitchers who have a shot. We have guys like Brummett and others who won’t make it and throw 90 plus. Keep the faith.
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Hey Rick schu in 1984 had 35 2b , 14 3b , 12 hr, and batted 301 to boot! He stole more bases than Dom brown too. The phils had good reason to like him.
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There are NOT only two categories of players. Those who are raw and those who are accomplished baseball players.
There are several, but it helps for this discussion to see three broad categories: (1) toolsy no clue how to play at all, (2) toolsy, some significant skills, enough to project some performance off the bat, and (3) highly skilled but limited tools.
You need all three, but you cant draft (1) in top rounds.
I think what Monk was saying was that in the first two rounds, you draft guys with major standout tools who are either precocious baseball players (like Hamels or Utley) or who are tool sheds who have ALREADY shown great instincts for the game and ALREADY possess some SPECIAL hitting or pitching skills. Case in points: Hamels, Burrell, Rolen, Valent (he failed, but had the right makeup when drafted), Floyd, etc. Top choices can have tools up the wazoo, but they HAVE to be able to play.
The so-called “toolsy” guys are guys who have no clue, just physical tools and should be drafted after the top rounds. These are guys who could be wide receivers, might be great defenders, because you can learn defense more easily, and can run, or hit the ball a mile, but can’t compete at a pro level at all.
Brown is NOT one of these toolsy guys. He has great tools AND skills. Colllier is not a toolsy guy either. He had hitting skills as an amateur.
Hudson, Hewitt, James, and the Greg Golsons, Jeff Jacksons, and Reggie Taylors of previous generations are in the toolsy category. Of these, Taylor did improve somewhat and James is improving now, but none of these should be drafted in top 2 rounds. They were crap picks, basically throwing away a pick.
Don’t know how anyone could imply that Hudson and Hewitt were smart picks in the first round. That’s what Monk was arguing against, as I interpreted it, and I agree wholeheartedly. So arguing against his position is aligning yourself with those two picks. They would have made good 3rd or 4th round picks. Plenty of toolsy wide receiver types who don’t know how to play baseball around in later rounds.
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1. Hudson wasn’t picked in the 1st round.
2. It is funny that Brown is now considered ‘not toolsy’ after he becomes the number 1 prospect.
3. Carl Crawford and Torii Hunter
4. Tyler Mach picks are no better than Hewitt or Hudson picks
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i guess u guys would rather have a joe savery over a kyrell hudson or collier oh well thats your opinion
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You explain it better than I did, DD. Thanks much.
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Murray:
“I have to assume that Hyatt was hurting for awhile and now feels better. How else can you explain his transformation from stud to bum and now back to stud.”
An article in the Lakewood paper reported on Hyatt’s year in CLW so far, saying he had lost the touch for his change-up for a while, and has now gotten it back. It’s a big pitch for him, sets up his FB.
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But when Brown was picked, he was one of the toolsy guys. So was Taylor, who didn’t hit all that well at Stanford. In fact, so was another of the Phillies top prospects, Gose, who was a relatively high pick, like Hewitt and Hudson.
That said, I tend to agree with those who say that the Phillies should not use their early picks on ‘toolsy,’ raw outfielders, mostly because they seem to have a knack for finding that type of player in the later rounds.
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I think the word “toolsy” is thrown around too much.
1. Most star players have 4 or 5 tools.
2. The word people need to use is “raw” or the phrase “rough baseball skills”
Because Domonic Brown had 5 tools when he was drafted, but he also had good baseball instincts and showed good plate discipline from the get go. You can have 4 or 5 tools, like Kyrell Hudson, and not have the same instincts or secondary skills at age 18/19. Some players will accumulate those skills down the road, others won’t.
“Toolsy” is one of those words that has to go away, in my opinion, because it doesn’t tell you all that much.
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If Dom Brown was not raw when he was drafted he would have been drafted in the first 3 rounds, regardless of his football scholarship. There were multiple players picked this year with strong commitments. I went back and read some of the scouting comments on Dom, and they say he is a raw player. Because he immediately disproved those notions in the GCL, that does not eliminate him from the conversation.
If Dom Brown was drafted #1 or # 2 in 2006, guys would have been complaining and not because he had a scholarship to Miami. If the Phillies would have drafted Jiwan James in the 2nd round of the 2007 draft instead of the “toolsy” Travis Mattair, guys would have been complaining.
The sorry logic, that no toolsy player should be taken in the 1st 2 rounds, is wrong. It is also applied in revisionist fashion. Anthony Gose was a “raw” or “toolsy” player when drafted in the 2nd round, but somehow he is left out of the conversation. He and Brown are now no longer remembered as toolsy players, because their skills are developing. Both have justified their selection. Both are justifying toolsy players being considered in the top rounds by the Phillies.
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In today’s game you must be able to run. That is tool one for position players. Most everything else in the game can be leaarned to some extent. Heart is the sixth tool.
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Mike 77,
You are right on with your comments. Here is what it amounts to, It is not an exact science. Guys are picked in the 30th round that become stars, while guys like Savery are picked in the 1st and don’t make it. But, in this day and age, the Phils are doing ok developing players.
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Agree with phuturephillies. Raw or rough is abetter terminology. Brown was definitely not raw or rough. He loved baseball, already knew how to hit a bit, with good discipline and instincts. And that was much discussed. He should never be lumped in with Hewitt or Hudson. Two completely different categories. Evaluating prospects requires finer-grained distinctions than all or nothing..
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DD says, “Dom Brown was definitely not raw”.
Assesment from Philliesdraft.com in 2006, based on scouting reports: “… His 2 sport talent, however, comes with a drawback. Should he struggle with professional baseball, he knows that he can play D1 football. Since he’s considered a RAW baseball prospect, the Phillies must be patient with his development. ”
There you have it. He was considered raw (toolsy).
Revisionists will say Gose and Brown were not considered toolsy or raw, to suit there arguments, but it is not true.
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Mike, all you have to do for proof is look at the AB/BB/K ratios. Brown had good ratios from the get go. That tells me he had more baseball skills than thought. Look at the others you mentioned. Mostly poor ratios to this day. And for a team like the Phillies who are wheeling and dealing prospects, poor ratios aren’t in demand in the trade market, as they are less valuable.
We all have hope the Lakewood hitters make an impact in the Majors, but except for Singleton, all have very poor ratios. Some, or all, will struggle at higher levels. And some will wash out. You can have all the raw tools you want, but it doesn’t allow you identify, see, and hit a curveball or off-speed pitch.
Atlanta basically drafts the same way the Phils do, but their draftee’s ratios aren’t nearly as bad as some of the Phillies draftees. Then there is Boston’s way. That seems to be working for them. If they sign those top 4 unsigned draftees from this past draft, it will put their organizration in teriffic shape going forward, with tons of trade bait for the impact deal they will be seeking.
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Marc, the argument is that you should not draft raw (toolsy) talent in the early rounds. With Brown, you are starting your argument AFTER he was drafted. He was considered “toolsy” BEFORE the draft just like Gose, Hudson and James (Hewitt is on another level with regards to toolsy, because of playing in the NE).
You can’t just eliminate Brown and Gose from the argument because they showed skill immediately AFTER they were drafted. They are exactly the type of players that you and others are opposed to drafting high, even though both justify the opposite through performance.
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Mike77,
The problem with your argument is that the success rate on those kind of players is too low for a first or second round pick. In that sense, you’re making the same kind of “hindsight” mistake you are accusing other people of. ie., of course Brown would have been worth a 1st round pick, knowing what we know now (the jury is still out on Gose, as much as I like him), but a “Brown type player,” PRE-draft, has only a tiny chance to turn into a top prospect.
Now, if I was to play devil’s avocate, I would say that the way that the Phillies’ draft philosophy, combined with the fact that in recent they have drafted late in the first round, might arguably justify the kind of strategy that you are supporting. By the end of the first round, you have three types of players: (1) safe, polished, low ceiling college kids, (2) high tools, NOT raw, HS kids who will demand significantly over slot bonuses to sign, and (3) raw, high tool HS kids. Given those choices, and given that the Phillies don’t draft kids in category #2 (IMO for good reasons, but agree with that or not, that is their strategy and it has OVERALL worked just fine), one could argue for picking the raw high tool HS kid over the polished but low ceiling college kid.
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Problem is you can’t separate rounds 1&2 from the other rounds based on this strategy. It would appear that their overall approach is to take players with higher risk/reward potential from both college and HS that have some flaws in their games that cause them to drop. It can be HS players like Hewitt/Gose with off the chart physical skills but little baseball experience or guys coming off injuries like Shreve/Savery, or guys who had disappointing years leading up to the draft like Taylor/Singleton.
If based on this approach you can get 1 or 2 all-star caliber players out of 10 then the strategy has to be considered a success. But if they’re going to take this approach, the team can’t say, “well this is our philosophy but only after round 3” because they wont get the highest potential reward players that are available each year.
Point is, if you’re committed to a strategy then you need to follow through with that commitment.
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LarryM,
You are exactly right. Those are the options later in the first round. The “high floor” “lower ceiling” college player is the wrong route. It does not matter if they have the better percentage chance of making it. They don’t offer enough on the return.
I do not say just blindly draft toolsy players, but if a scout says a raw player has “Darryl Strawberry ” type skills, you take him If you think he has the aptitude. That is better than taking low upside guys like Jason Donald. Guys like that can be obtained cheaply through other means than the draft, for the big team.
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Well, I did say I was playign devil’s advocate. The counter argument is that plenty of toolsy raw HS kids are still around during the 4th/5th rounds, so maybe you draft them there and draft the polished collge kid at the end of round one. I can honestly see both points. What bugs me are people (not you) who are so sure of their position on this that they think that the mangement is idiotic for not going with their preferred choice. There are trade offs in drafting players, especially late first round, and people should acknowledge this.
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Toolsy raw HS kids in the 4th/5th are going to want 1st/2nd round money.
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LarryM,
I generally agree that you can draft “raw” “toolsy” players in the 4th-5th rounds. On this site that is even too high, if you read any of the ridiculous, uniformed comments about Gauntlett Eldemire immediately after his selection this year. Complaints came before they even knew the skill set. There is just blind prejudgment on these players.
With regards to the complaints associated with Hudsons selection, he was drafted based on his pedigree as a pre season top 50 HS player. The Phillies couldn’t wait to draft him because he would not have lasted. Same for Gose. The round is dictated by the perceived value of the player. They identified those guys as players they wanted and they took them high. So what.
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