July 8th Discussion

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Here we go again

GCL Phillies lost 7-6.
Lakewood lost 2-0.
Clearwater lost 4-3.
Reading won 4-2.
Lehigh Valley lost 4-2.

44 thoughts on “July 8th Discussion”

  1. I’m quickly getting on the Pettibone bandwagon. He had another fine outing last night.

    8 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 7 K, 0 BB, 11-5 GO/FO

    In his last 5 games:

    27 2/3 IP, 12 H, 7 ER, 17 K, 12 BB, 2.28 ERA.

    The starting pitching is deep in Lakewood: Colvin, Cosart, Hernandez, May, Pettibone, Shreve and let’s throw in Josh Zeid. Cosart and Hernandez are on the DL but there’s no mistaking their talent.

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  2. Bellman: I share in your enthusiasm about our low A pitching prospects… just want to see Pettibone’s k/9 rate go a little higher.

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  4. noticed that hewitt stuck out three times in three ab last night. although he has made progress in making contact from two years ago, he still has a low ba. he was the worse third baseman in organized ball at williamsport. can someone give an firsthand evaluation of his outfield play and defensive skills? i still have hope for him based on his potential power. understand when he does hit it, he hits it hard.

    saw him at the carpenter complex this past spring and he looks like a division one corner back. very impressive looking athlete.

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  8. For all those Rizzotti doubters out there. Press release yesterday named Matt Rizzotti Eastern League player of the month! Pretty good for a kid who is old and has no potential huh?

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  9. Great! Another thing we have to make up a reason to hate this kid for!

    I’ve been reading on this website for a while and am almost disgusted at some of the people who comment here.

    I’m not that old, but when I was growing up nobody loved anything more then a true Underdog! The guy who comes out of nowhere and just starts dominating and making a name for himself. To clear up all doubt I am talking about Matt Rizzotti.

    This is now another accolade for this kid that you guys are probably going to try and say he didn’t earn. Most likely come up with some reason to put this kid down. Reasons like its “just a mirage”, or “he’s on steroids”, or “he’s terrible in the field”, or my favorite “he’s too old”.

    At what point does the kid start getting credit for his achievements and not excuses that would in fact try and
    DISCREDIT what he’s done!

    I believe you guys offer some great insight on the Phillies minor league system, but you guys have been doing nothing but slamming this kid. I’ve taken my son to a ton of games that feature Matt Rizzotti in them. And you know what is one thing that people never mention about him? That win lose or draw, he comes out after the game from the locker room and signs autographs for anyone who is there, and he doesn’t leave till he has signed for everyone! You don’t hear about that! How many minor league baseball players do that?

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  10. Anyone else have a suspicion that Arthur B. Froman is the same person as Lester Von Teshel? Weirdo.

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  12. I’ve seen a lot of positive comments on this site about Rizzotti. The negativity is mostly because the Phils don’t really need a first baseman or a designated hitter right now so he is blocked from advancing to the majors in this organization, and his trade value is questionable because his performance this season at AA is so much better than his previous records indicate.

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  13. He’s a 24 year old DH in Reading. Based on the last 100 years of statistics, those are both hurting his value. Pointing that out isn’t a personal attack on the kid.

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  15. Okay, enough with the “Everybody on this website has a secret burning hatred of Rizzotti and wants to undermine his every accomplishment”. Admittedly, the steroids thing was ridiculous and some comments about him are more degrading then they need to be, but I think everyone on this site would love for Rizzotti to succeed and is fully supportive of him as a player and human being.

    I think most people on this website try and evaluate our prospects from an objective perspective. This has real value and is the number one reason I’ve been reading this website the past few years. It’s very easy to get geeked out on our own guys and lose site of their potential. Every sports fan thinks that the guys they have are better than most outsiders perceive them to be. Look at Kyle Drabek. Last year he was an “ACE!”, and indeed he was a key piece of a deal that brought us Roy. However, most talent evaluators saw him as a #2 starter or a nice #3, but we on this site saw this as evidence that “Keith Law hates the Phillies” or some such thing. Now, with Drabek in Toronto’s organization the same talent evaluators think the same thing, and I’m pretty sure no one here thinks that’s because they hate the Blue Jays.

    This leads back to Rizzotti. He has had a wonderful season so far, and this award is more than deserved. However, when evaluating his value as a prospect there are a couple things that objective analysis requires taking a look at:

    1. His Age. I know this isn’t always popular, but it is terribly important. Over at minorleagueball.com there is a thread where Sickles is answering questions about prospects. Someone asked about Rizzotti, and Sickles said that while he is a legit prospect he really needs to keep up this level of production as a 24 year old in AA ball. This is not a knock on Rizzotti, after all as many people have pointed out, all he can do is continue to hit and play well. It is just a fact of prospect analysis. Players develop over time. A prospect who is older has had more time to develop, therefore he should perform better than a younger prospect at the same level and has less room to get better. Obviously, there are going to be exceptions, but we can’t know if Rizzotti is an exception until he actually does it and years of prospect evaluations tell us to be cautious.

    2. Sample Size. This has been a fantastic half season, and everybody would love it if it continues for years while Rizzotti is wearing pinstripes. However, Rizzotti simply hasn’t done this before and there is no way of telling if this will peter out or if he will continue with his torrid pace. Again, this is not a knock on Rizzotti simply normal caution based on long experience in the industry measuring talent. There have been many fantastic half seasons by players who never did anything again. There have also been amazing half seasons by players who go on to be in the HOF. The fact is we don’t know for sure, but experience tells us to hold off anointing someone a savior until we see high production for a longer time.

    3. Positional adjustment. The standards for a first baseman in MLB are incredibly high. If Rizzotti is stuck at 1st, (and all indications point to that being true) even if he turns into a gold glover at the position the bar for his offensive performance is very high. He has met this bar so far this season but he has very little room to slip and this increased risk hurts his value.

    Again, to reiterate, no one hates Rizzotti on this site. Everyone would love, love, love to see him succeed. Indeed, the prospects I love the most are the undervalued guys who come out of no where. However, in order to keep this site based in some sort of real world objectivity and get a sense of the value and potential of our prospects, we need to continue to be skeptical and try and evaluate our guys based on industry standards rather than emotion.

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  16. It’d be awesome if another team loved Rizzotti enough to give us value for him in a trade. Maybe it happens. Maybe he becomes a platoon starter on a 2nd division team for a couple years (his possible ceiling).

    There is not a single Phillies prospect I hate or that anyone else here hates. I dont think anyone even hates Hewitt or Savery despite their struggles. How do you hate a young kid trying with all his heart to make it at an incredibly tough sport?

    Being objective is not hating a guy.

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  17. Tim Kennelly is hitting .458 and has started at three different positions so far in July.

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  19. Agree with NEPP and the comment before his (though I’d put his ceiling a little higher but not much). I’d add that the “negative” comments are mainly directed at the more extreme positive comments – people who seem to be convinced that he is going to be a star – and/or people who are projecting him into the Phillies lineup as an outfielder, of all things.

    It’s fun to follow his progress, I wish him the best, but let’s not get carried away.

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  20. I think we have to see a little bit more of Kennelly. He started out really struggling this year. If he’s catching, with the need for that position, he probably has a better shot to make it there, as he progresses. Valle has been coming on better lately. I would think Valle is the better of the two right now.

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  22. Is Heitor Correa still a top 10-15 type prospect either still? No one talks about him at all.

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  23. I understand age has to be looked at, when evaluating prospects, but I do feel it kind’ve unfortunate that if a player choses to go to college, when he signs his first contract and is assigned to A-ball, he probably is going to be older that many of the other players. There is absolutely nothing you can do about that, except go out and play. I think the Rizzotti case is an excellent example. His numbers have been pretty solid from Lakewood, Clearwater and now Reading, they have been great. If Rizzotti gets a shot at LV this year, I think the age factor isn’t as important.
    I think you can throw out the ‘sample-size’ comparision. It’s not like he hit .205 along the way and now he is hitting .350. He’s hit real well at 2 levels this year, for 3.5 months.
    It would be interesting to hear Schwimer’s comments concerning the age/college issues, since he went the college route.

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  24. I never hate the player, unless he is a jerk{alan iverson, mcguire type]. these kids are trying as hard as possible in most cases. I don’t blame HEWITT if he never makes it, its the scouts who overvalue the player, who put the first round tag on him, its a mistake by them,not the kids fault

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  25. Let’s all be clear:

    1. We’re rooting for these prospects – every single one of them.

    2. Nobody with any credibility on this site hates any prospect or has a grudge against any prospect. These are young men struggling to make it in the very difficult and competitve world of professional baseball. Sure, it’s a dream to play, but it is also very hard and frustrating, particularly since the vast majority of these players will, at some level, fail in their quest.

    3. We are trying to give our objective views on the future of these prospects. You may agree or disagree with various viewpoints, but people are just giving their opinions and there are a heck of a lot of sophisticated and interesting opinions on this site. I learn something new almost every day.

    4. If you spend a lot of time looking at prospects and watching them develop, you will realize that, statistically, certain factors make a prospect more or less valuable and these factors, while seemingly irrelevant from a lay person’s standpoint, are simply huge in predicting the prospect’s future success. These factors include age, strikeout rates, walk rates, OBP, OPS, the player’s atheleticism, the player’s prior performance history, the league, the stadium and the list goes on and on. So, somebody who’s hitting .360 in AA with power may only be an okay prospect (Rizzotti), while a kid hitting .265 in A ball without power may be a top prospect (Gose). This is not to say that performance is irrelevant, just that it has to be viewed in a broader context to give you an idea of how to project a player.

    Peace out.

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  26. I know I’m a newbie but to me, it just seems Rizzotti is still what PP said earlier about him. Possible major-leaguer but nothing more than a bench player or possibly a powerful version of Dobbs (with worse defense, I guess?).

    He’s doing very well for himself but remember when Jeff Francouer debuted for the Braves? I know, different league, people, etc. but players do get hot streaks. Heck maybe everything is coming together for Rizzotti but I’m unsure about ahem: phuture levels. Still, though, I’m heavily enjoying this. He seemed like a very nice/likable fella when I got his autograph at Lakewood. Seemed happy to sign stuff.

    I’m also wondering what people thought about Altherr? Wasn’t he signed overslot?

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  27. Kennelly – I think he could have a decent major league career as a utility guy – the fact that he plays catcher as well as third, first and the corner OF could make him a very valuable asset, even if he isn’t that great defensively at any of the positions. The fact that he’s always shown good plate discipline helps him out, especially since he never shown much power.

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  28. Agree that I see Kennelly as a very valuable bench guy who can be serviceable at multiple positions. If he can continue to hit enough he could carve out a very nice career.

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  29. Really thought Kennelly would be catching in Reading this year but they obviously wanted Tuffy every day there and Tim as the lead catcher in Clearwater. Now all of the sudden with Overbeck’s promotion he is playing some third and even a start in right and then back to behind the plate last night. Naughton must be hurting again. Tim is only 23 so it seems the Phils view him primarily as a catcher and maybe next year in Reading with Tuffy going to AAA. But this is Kennelly’s sixth year playing in the organization so I guess he can become a minor league free agent in 2011.

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  31. At this point I do not know how everyone can speculate on Rizzotti’s upside. He was above average earlier in his brief career and is now incredible. Just because he is older does not mean he can have a huge upswing in production, especially since he was a college player. If, for example, Hewitt went on a tear it would be viewed with less skepticism because of his draft position and athleticism.

    Maybe he will cool off but it has not happened yet. To dismiss it as just a hot streak might be foolish. He deserved his recognition as maybe the best hitter in the league. How bad would it be trade away a young starting 1B for a fringe infielder?

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  32. What has been said about Rizzootti:

    1. He is one of the hottest and best hitters in minors right now.

    2. His hitting and power in the past were not as good as they are today.

    3. He is blocked.

    4. He is a bad fielder.

    5. His value has increased.

    6. He will not get us a great MLB player in a trade.

    7. His trade value is more likely as a throw-in.

    Q: Which of these are false?
    A: None.

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  33. Agree Kennelly could be a good utility guy and catching makes him more valuable. But his fielding at all said positions has to be passable at the MLB level. And he will have to carry his hitting up to AA/AAA.

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  34. And now, for something completely different…

    Just had a couple of quick questions; maybe the answer is common knowledge and I’ve missed it, or maybe nobody knows. But this is the right place to ask, right?

    1. Kelly Dugan isn’t listed as being on the DL, but he hasn’t played in a few weeks. Anyone know what’s going on?

    2. I seem to recall Marco Davalillo being on the Williamsport roster at some point this season, but he never played, and now he popped up in a VSL box score yesterday. Anyone (specifically, I’m thinking of andyb) know what’s going on there?

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  35. Dugan is apparently filming a new movie with his dad which is why he hasn’t been around. Davalillo I believe they just wanted to give a change of scenery since he had trouble adjusting to Williamsport.

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  37. The Gulf Coast League team has 3 guys that seem to be doing well early on…

    Aaron Altherr – 57 AB’s, .298

    Patrick Murray – 41 AB’s, .341 – The Phillies drafted him twice (2006, 2010) so maybe they knew he could hit

    Maikel Franco – 52 AB’s, .269, 7 BB, 10 SO – For still being 17 years old (until August), I am impressed. Does anybody have a report on what he looks like 1st hand?

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  38. PhxPhilly re: Rizzotti

    “Maybe he will cool off but it has not happened yet”

    He IS cooling off. Last 10 games .243/.317/.378

    This INCLUDES a 4 hit game.

    Remove that game and the splits are .156/.250/.281

    I’m not saying he is this player, just that you need more time to evaluate. He isn’t going to bring anything in trade this year. He isn’t going to be a pinch hitter in September. He needs more time to see what he can develop into.

    He’s having a great year, no doubt about it. Not saying to dismiss his current year, but to NOT put it into context of his entire career (and, by the way, he has not been above avg in my opinion), where this could possibly be an outlier, would be plain silly.

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  39. Aumont with 13 KS through 6. Probably done. Line is tarnished by some shoddy defense, while trying to get out of a bases loaded, one out jam, 2 errors and a pass ball.

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  41. That is what we wanted from Aumont in the beginning of the season. Let’s hope for for a successful second half for him. Reading continues to play well with a big win tonight. Another good start for Naylor who is 8-6 now. I say give him a shot at AAA.

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  42. “At this point I do not know how everyone can speculate on Rizzotti’s upside.”

    For all of the many reasons stated in many many comments in this and other threads and by PP a few weeks ago. Again and again.

    Look, sure minor leaguers can surprise you – every now and then. Utley, for example, while highly regarded (much more so than Rizzotti, with good reason), was not as I recall thought to have anywhere near as high a ceiling as he has in fact had. And there are other examples. But those exceptions tend to be rare. And that’s more true of a defensively limited 1st baseman than it would be otherwise.

    I mean, you could say what you said about ANY minor leaguer. But for those of us who like to project the future careers of our minor leaguers – i.e., most people who frequent this site – you got to make intelligent predictions. And EVERYONE who has looked at Rizzotti systematically sees several red flags which suggest thast, while he is now a real prospect & has a solid chance of having some sort of major league career, he isn’t destined for major league stardom. Which is far from an insult.

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  43. Marco Davalillo- if you follow the transactions- he was re-instated from Williamsport’s suspended list and assigned to the VSL.
    Kelly Dugan- Williamsport website said he had an “infection removed” and is out indefinitely.
    So you’re 0-2 with 2 lies or made up answers so why don’t you retire?

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  44. ****Look, sure minor leaguers can surprise you – every now and then. Utley, for example, while highly regarded (much more so than Rizzotti, with good reason), was not as I recall thought to have anywhere near as high a ceiling as he has in fact had.****’

    Key Difference: Utley was a 1st round pick…everyone knew what his potential ceiling was. He just reached it is all.

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