The position by position breakdown of prospects according to SONAR scores continues today with 2B. If you missed the first installment, check here. Before getting into the position, again just a few quick reminders. This statistic is based on 1 year of data. It does not factor in a player’s draft slot, his signing bonus, his raw tools, or any kind of projection for his future ability. It tells a story of what he did in 2009 based on his age, what level of the minors he was at, what league he played in, and how he was affected by his home park. There are other aspects that need to be considered when trying to evaluate prospect status, but those aspects are subjective, this score is not. This is meant to be taken as a data point for further confirmation/investigation, and to give a snapshot of the player’s true performance in 2009. After the 2010 season, a two year combination score will be used, as well as a 1 year score, but for now, the statistic only considers 2009. Check below for more…
Second base is one of the tougher positions to consider when looking at prospects. Up the middle prospects (2B, SS, C and CF) are the most valuable positions because they require the most athletic ability defensively. Lots of prospects in high school play shortstop because they are the best athlete on their team. When they move to college or the pros, only the elite remain at shortstop, and as they climb the ladder, even some of those guys are forced to move to other positions. Second base is a physically demanding position because of having to pivot and turn the double play across your body, and historically, the offensive standards at 2B have been lower than almost any other position on the field. Defensive statistics, even the most advanced kind at the major league level, are still prone to noise and variance, and its tough to really gauge how large the gap is from the elite 2B to the average 2B defensively. Because of that, its tougher to evaluate which guys are going to be able to stick at 2B in the majors, and that is one of the reasons why I left any kind of defensive metric out of SONAR. The need for scouts and scouting reports is highlighted the most in the defensive aspect of the game. So the 2B list is going to be very subjective, because some of these guys might be forced to move to 3B in the majors, or LF, or RF, or even 1B. But for now, they are 2B, so that’s where they get ranked. Lets get started.
Here is the top 20 list (click here if you can’t properly view it in your browser)

01 – Alex Amarista (LAA) – SONAR 57.08
The Angels signed Amarista out of Venezuela in 2006, and 2009 was his second season in the US. In 2008, he put up an impressive .332/.416/.431 line the AZL, albeit it at age 19. This season, the Angels jumped him to full season ball and he responded with a .319/.390/.468 batting line. The Midwest League is very tough on hitters traditionally, and though Amarista didn’t show much power, his .149 ISO is more acceptable for a middle infielder than it would be for a corner infielder or corner outfielder. His 9% BB rate is passable, but he earns very high marks for his contact skills, with only an 11% K rate. His .291 SecA leaves a bit to be desired, but examine it further, and it seems that his lower number is a result of 20 caught stealings in 58 attempts. The 38 stolen bases indicate he has speed, he just needs to learn how to use it. He ended up with 39 doubles, 10 triples and only 4 HR. He could see some of those doubles turn into home runs if he can develop any more physical size, but at 5’8, 150 (listed on B-R), that doesn’t seem likely. He’s basically going to be a high average hitter with good speed, which has value, especially in the middle of the infield. Baseball America didn’t think he even merited a Top 30 spot in their 2009 handbook, so it will be interesting to see if hes on their radar now after a great run in 2009.
02. Kenneth Roque (BOS) – SONAR 48.17
Roque was a 10th round pick in the 2007 draft out of Puerto Rico, and after struggling for his first two seasons, he took off in 2009. A .415 OPS in 2007 in the GCL, and then a .644 OPS in a repeat in 2008 didn’t inspire much confidence, but he rebounded in 2009 to the tune of a .316/.398/.510 line overall between the GCL and the NYPL at age 19. He started in the GCL, where he put up a .317/.400/.520 line at age 19, then a .313/.389/.469 line in the NYPL. He was a year too old for the GCL, and it was his third crack at it, so you have to kind of take his numbers with that caveat, but even with his slow start to his pro career, he will be age appropriate for Low A Greenvile in 2010. His 11.9% BB rate is excellent, as was his .194 ISO. He’s not much of a base stealing threat. He’s far down the pecking order for the Red Sox in terms of their up the middle prospects, but he should at least be back on the radar after a great 2009 season.
03. Hendry Jimenez (WAS) – SONAR 47.14
Jimenez appears to be an under the radar signing out of the Dominican Republic for the Nationals, having signed in 2006, but making his US debut in 2009 at age 19. He put up an excellent .333/.439/.438 line in the GCL, including 12 stolen bases in 15 attempts. His 13.8% BB rate was near the top of the leaderboard for all 2B prospects I looked at, and his 11.8% K rate is fantastic. He offers very little in the way of power (.105 ISO), and at 5’10, 160, there isn’t a ton of power projection there, or any really. He did show good speed, which should add another aspect to his game, and the .333 SecA is good. He just turned 20 at the end of December, and the Nats could exercise some caution and have him spend 2010 in the NYPL, but a promotion to Low A would probably tell us more about his prospects going forward.
04. Vincent Belnome (SDP) – SONAR 46.48
The Padres may have found a late round gem in Belnome, a 28th round draft pick in 2009 out of West Virginia University. Belnome had a solid college career, putting up OPS numbers of .980, .974 and finally 1.165 in his junior year. He always drew about as many walks as strike outs, and showed good doubles power. After the draft, he split his time between the shortseason Northwest League and then the Low A Midwest League. His cumulative line of .321/.444/.519 is very impressive, with the majority of that work coming in the NWL, where he went .297/.431/.500. He had the highest walk rate of anyone in the top 20 at 16.9%, to be expected from an advanced college hitter, but his .198 ISO also ranked him near the top of the leaderboard, and his .410 SecA was the highest of anyone on the chart. His 18% K rate is manageable, but he doesn’t pose a threat on the basepaths. I have no info on his defense at 2B, but his bat looks promising, even if its only shortseason data. His pro numbers seem to echo his college numbers, so there is some optimism here on my part. He turns 22 in March, so San Diego would be wise to promote him aggressively to the Cal League to start, with the hope of hitting AA by midseason.
05. Jose Altuve (HOU) – SONAR 38.96
Altuve is the second Venezuelan on the list, a product of the Astros efforts there in 2006. He came to the US in 2008 and posted a respectable .284/.320/.433 line in the rookie level Appalachian League. The Astros had him repeat the league this year, with a late promotion to the NYPL, and he went .324/.408/.508 in his repeat trip, with a .653 OPS to finish the season in the NYPL, for an overall line of .302/.387/.451 including 25 doubles (30 XBH total) and 28 stolen bases in 34 attempts. Impressively, he drew 34 walks to only 26 strikeouts, with the 11.5% BB rate being above average and the 8.8% K rate being well above average. He’s going to be a contact guy, but a .149 ISO isn’t terrible, and his stolen base ability helped boost his SecA to .369, an excellent mark. The (apparent) knock on Altuve is his size. He’s listed at only 5’5, 150, and whether that’s true or not, its hard to imagine he’s much bigger than that. That type of frame really kind of eliminates a lot of avenues going forward, but for a middle infielder, its not the end of the world. Our own Jimmy Rollins is only 5’8, remember. Still, it appears Altuve’s size (or lack thereof) is going to keep him down on most lists, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and see how he performs in a full season league, which he should do in 2010.
06. Alex Nunez (DET) – SONAR 36.28
The Tigers signed Nunez out of the Dominican Republic, and he made his his US debut in stunning fashion in 2009, posting a .308/.353/.531 line in the GCL, with 17 extra base hits in only 143 AB. His .223 ISO is tops among the top 50 2B prospects in my database, and his 5 triples indicate some potential speed, even if it wasn’t evident in the 4 stolen bases in 7 attempts. Nunez has one big red flag in his 4.5% BB rate, and the 20% K rate is high. He appears to be quite raw, but does have great raw power that is already showing in games. At 5’11/170, he also appears to possibly have room to add a bit of muscle to his frame. He turns 20 in May, and he’s likely ticketed for the NYPL, with a possible push to Low A to end the season. His approach is going to need refinement, but he appears to have good raw tools.
07. Brock Bond (SFG) – SONAR 34.66
Bond, a 27th round pick in 2007, bounced back after a rough 2008 spent in A ball by posting a .333/.429/.409 line at AA Connecticut in 2009 in 531 PA’s. He doesn’t have any power (0.76 ISO), but he drew plenty of walks (12.6%), and his 13% K rate is very good, indicating good bat control, which means he may be able to continue hitting for average, but his .399 BABIP will regress next year, meaning a repeat of his .333 batting average is unlikely. The common belief is that patient hitters with no power will struggle as they climb higher in the minors, because pitchers will be more likely to challenge them. That could be the case with Bond, as his .220 SecA points to not a whole lot of upside outside of his ability to make contact. His 2009 is probably flukish, and if he regresses on batted balls in play, his score is likely to be much lower next year.
08. Scott Sizemore (DET) – SONAR 34.34
Sizemore is the most recognizable/hyped prospect on the list to date, and is a decent bet to be the Tigers starting 2B in 2010. After a nice debut in 2006, the 5th round pick struggled in 2007 and 2008, posting middling offensive numbers before his breakout in 2009, where he hit .308/.389/.500 across AA and AAA. His game is well rounded, as he posted a 10.7% BB rate, a decent 15.9% K rate, and an impressive .192 ISO, and 21 stolen bases which helped give him a .348 SecA. His defense is considered good at 2B, and his game is well rounded, but he’s basically a finished product at age 24. He should be a .280/.350/.440 type hitter in the majors, which would probably suit Detroit just fine.
09. Corban Joseph (NYY) – SONAR 33.62
The Yankees nabbed Joseph in the 4th round of the 2008 draft out of a Tennessee high school, and the returns look promising so far. Joseph is older for a high school prospect, having played his debut season in 2008 at age 19, and his second year this year at age 20, but the Yankees pushed him to Low A this year, and he held his own, batting .300/.381/.418 in 436 PA’s. None of his secondary skills really jump out, but his 11% BB rate is above average, and his 14% K rate shows an ability to make contact. He didn’t show much power, and stole only 8 bases in 13 attempts, which helped to produce a pedestrian .255 SecA. At 6’0, 170, he may still be able to add a bit of muscle to his frame and in turn, add a bit more power. His approach at the plate appears to be solid, the secondary skills need work.
10. David Adams (NYY) – SONAR 32.80
Adams went 1 round before Corban Joseph to the Yankees, giving them #9 and 10 on this list, with their 3rd and 4th round picks in 2008. Adams is a product of the rejuvenated UVA baseball program, and he finished his 2009 season on the best run of his pro career, batting .281/.360/.498 in 265 PA’s at High A Tampa. His line at Low A Charleston was actually a bit worse, at .290/.385/.394. Charleston, according to my park factors, suppresses power hitting quite a bit, especially home runs, so its not surprising to see an uptick in power from Adams in Tampa, which while still a pitcher’s park, is a bit more neutral. Adams’ walk rate isn’t quite as good as Joseph’s, but he’s shown much more power so far, and his .288 SecA is better. Adams was 22 in 2009, so he was old for both levels, but his performance in A+ ball was promising. At 6’2/190, he’s got a near ideal frame for a middle infielder.
11. Enrique Hernandez (HOU) – SONAR 30.67
The Astros grabbed Hernandez in the 6th round of the 2009 draft out of Puerto Rico, and he posted a decent showing in his debut. One of the younger prospects in the GCL, he didn’t turn 18 until the end of August, and for the season he posted a .295/.336/.396 line in 225 PA. Hernandez excelled in making contact, striking out just 12.4% of the time, but his other skills remain very raw, as seen in the 4.4% BB rate and .101 ISO, and while the 8 SB in 10 attempts is nice, the .179 SecA indicates he’s got a long way to go. The very low hitting standard in the GCL, coupled with his very young age make him someone to watch next season, when a repeat of the GCL is likely, or possibly a bump up to the NYPL, where he will again be young for his level. The very low SecA is one of the red flags I mentioned, and in cases like this, its an indication that the player is probably too high on the list. But the list is mechanical, not subjective, so I’m addressing everyone.
12. Stephen Lombardozzi (WAS) – SONAR 28.84
Lombardozzi was a 19th round pick in the 2008 draft, and put up a fairly poor .283/.371/.322 line in the GCL at age 19 after 1 season of JuCo ball. In 2009, he moved straight to A ball and improved his numbers a bit, putting up a line of .296/.375/.395 in 576 PA’s. His numbers are boosted by a 10.8% BB rate and a quality 13.9% K rate, but he’s shown no power, evident in his .099 ISO and his .242 SecA. He did steal 16 bases in 23 opportunities and did have 7 triples, so he has some speed, but it probably isn’t going to be a big part of his game going forward. As I’ve mentioned before, I don’t really like putting much emphasis on defensive statistics, especially in the minors, but his 4.83 range factor in 2009 is very good. He’ll play all of 2010 at age 21 and should move to A+ ball, where he will be age appropriate. If he develops any power it will improve his prospect outlook.
13. CJ Retherford (CHW) – SONAR 27.97
Retherford is a great story, as he was draft eligible every year between 2003 and 2007 was never taken, signing as an undrafted FA in 2007 by the White Sox. He dominated in his 2007 debut, then had a decent year in the Carolina League in 2008. In 2009, his age 23 season, he put up a .297/.340/.473 line in 526 PA’s in the AA Southern League. Retherford is a bit of a free swinger, posting only a 5.7% BB rate, but has good contact skills (13.3% K rate) and a decent .176 ISO. His speed isn’t really a factor. He smacked an impressive 46 doubles in 2009, but only 10 HR, and that’s probably going to be his game as he continues to move up. His lack of plate discipline could prevent him from becoming an every day player, but again the offensive threshold is lower at both 2B and SS. The Sox had him play 3B last year but moved him to 2B in 2009, and his bat profiles better there if he can handle it defensively.
14. Jean Segura (LAA) – SONAR 26.83
Segura is a product of the Angels work in the Dominican Republic, and after a rough US debut in 2008, he showed much more promise in 2009, putting up a combined .354/.395/.514 line in the rookie level Pioneer League with a very brief cameo at AAA to end the year. Though he didn’t draw many walks (5.6%), he showed some of the best contact skills on the list, striking out in only 7.7% of his PA’s. While his power isn’t off the charts, the .160 ISO is good for a raw middle infielder. He managed to swipe 11 bases in 14 attempts, coupled with the decent power to give him a .265 SecA, not good, but not awful. He’s listed at only 5’11/155, so if he can add a bit of bulk he could show a bit more power.
15. Brett Lawrie (MIL) – SONAR 26.59
Lawrie might be a recognizable name on this list, as he was a first round pick by Milwaukee in the 2008 draft out of Canada. Originally drafted as a catcher, the Brewers quickly decided he couldn’t handle the defensive aspect of it and moved him to 2B, where scouts again wonder if he can stay defensively. With the bat, he had a good but not great season, posting a .274/.340/.436 line in the pitcher friendly MWL as a 19 year old. None of his peripherals rate as above or below average, and his .274 SecA kind of tells the story. Originally thought to be a very polished prospect compared to most prospects coming out of Canada, he might need more time to develop, and he could end up in a corner outfield spot, where the emphasis on his bat will increase.
16. Logan (Vincent) Watkins (CHC) – SONAR 23.71
Watkins was a 21st round draft pick in 2008 out of Goddard HS in Kansas, a real baseball hotbed, and the Cubs had to pay $500,000 to keep him away from Wichita State. He posted a very solid line in his 2008 debut, going .325/.462/.363 in the rookie level Arizona League. The Cubs sent him to the Northwest League, another short season affiliate, in 2009 and his results were also good; .326/.389/.391. So far, Watkins has shown excellent bat control, evident in the low 9.7% K rate in 2009, but he hasn’t shown any power, posting an ISO of just .065 in 2009, and in turn, a putrid .186 SecA. He was billed as an excellent athlete in high school, so there is some hope that he’ll still fill out his frame and add some power, but for now his best skill appears to be his bat control.
17. Kevin Russo (NYY) – SONAR 21.32
Russo was a 20th round pick in 2006, and is likely just noise on this list, as he turned 25 in July and did his damage in AAA this year. His numbers were good; .326/.397/.431 with a 10.3% BB rate and a solid 13.5% K rate, but he doesn’t have a whole lot of power (.105 ISO) and his .241 SecA tells the story here. I suppose he could be a late bloomer with some ability to get on base, but he’ll likely never make it in an organization like the Yankees.
18. Ryan Flaherty (CHC) – SONAR 19.62
Flaherty was a personal favorite of mine leading up to the 2008 draft, and the Cubs grabbed him in the supplemental 1st round, 41st overall. He posted an .880 OPS in the shortseason NWL last year, but the Cubs curiously only sent him to the Low A Midwest League, where as a 22 year old, his .276/.344/.470 line doesn’t look especially impressive. His walk rate (9.2%) is decent, his .194 ISO is very good for a middle infielder, and his .299 SecA indicates he’s got some potential, but for a 22 year old in Low A, you want to see more. He’s not a stolen base threat, and the 20 home runs were definitely good to see, but he’s going to need a big 2010, and hopefully he does half the damage in AA.
19. Luis Mateo (STL) – SONAR 18.04
The Cards grabbed Mateo in the 20th round of the 2008 draft out of Puerto Rico, and after posting a disappointing .681 OPS in his debut, he rebounded with a .911 OPS in a repeat of the rookie level Appalachian League. Mateo comes with a number of red flags. He had only 100 PA, which leads to potential noise, and his 4% BB rate and 25% K rate are both in the red. However, he gains solid marks for his power, posting a .194 ISO, which helps raise his SecA to .247, still red, but an indicator of the power. The batting average was likely a BABIP related fluke and is subject to regression in 2010, but at 6’0/160, I like his chances of developing even more power in the next 2 years, which should help keep him on this list. He will need to work on his approach though, for sure.
20. Jamie Pedroza (LAD) – SONAR 17.18
Pedroza, a 9th round pick in the 2007 draft out of UC-Riverside, was stuck in Low A as a 22 year old after a disappointing season in the A+ level Cal League in 2008. Normally guys who get dropped a level, especially 22 year old college players, immediately get removed from prospect lists, but Pedroza’s numbers were still decent. He hit .260/.361/.433, with a 12.8% BB rate, 40% XBH, and because of his 36 stolen bases in 50 attempts, a .365 SecA. The problem is, he turned 23 in September, and he now has to move very quickly. If he regained his confidence in 2009 and is double jumped to AA, he still has legit prospect status, but if he only moves to A+ next year, a level he’d be repeating, its tough to see him as a real prospect.
Here are a few notables that didn’t make the top 20
24. Adrian Cardenas (OAK) – SONAR 15.11
Our old friend Adrian Cardenas split his age 21 season between AA and AAA, and posted a composite line of .299/.365/.419. He showed a decent approach at the plate, with a 9.5% BB rate and a very good 12.6% K rate, but the power still hasnt emerged (.120 ISO) and his lack of speed leads to a below average .232 SecA. The A’s have played him all over the place, including 2B, 3B and SS. It appears his future at the big league level is as a super utility player. He’s still young, turning 22 in October, so he has time, but if the power hasn’t emerged at this point, I wonder if it will….
28. Eric Young Jr (COL) – SONAR 13.99
EY2.0, son of former big leaguer Eric Young, has a similar skill set to his All Star father, possessing excellent speed, the ability to draw a walk, and not a whole lot of power. His 10.1% BB rate was solid, and his 58 stolen bases in 72 attempts displays the game changing speed. He is 24, however, and is basically a finished product. His .131 ISO isn’t great, and he’s going to need to draw his share of walks to have real offensive value.
30. Harold Garcia (PHI) – SONAR 12.91
Garcia is the highest ranked Phillie on the list, and illustrates the lack of depth in the Phillies system at middle infield. His .291/.350/.414 line at Low A Lakewood wasn’t bad, but for a 22 year old, it wasn’t really great either. He doesn’t draw many walks, doesn’t have much power, but he did steal 42 bags in 54 attempts, a very nice percentage. If he could serve a utility/backup infielder role in the majors, it would be a big plus, but he has to move quickly.
36. Ryan Dent (BOS) – SONAR 10.05
Dent, a supplemental 1st round pick by Boston in 2007, hasn’t really performed up to expectations. He struggled in the NYPL last season, posting a .154/.267/.299 line in 238 PA, and followed it up with a combined .254/.343/.389 line split between A/A+ in 2009, but I guess that is a definite improvement. At 6’0/190, he looks the part, but he’s had issues with contact, evident in the 26.8% K rate this year. The 10.8% BB rate is encouraging, but the power hasn’t developed yet. He could be a late bloomer, and he was a first round pick because of his athleticism, so he has a chance. Going 18 for 23 in SB helped boost his SecA to a decent .295 mark. He could rise up this list next year if he builds on his 2009.
75. Jemile Weeks (OAK) – SONAR 2.86
Jemile, brother of oft-injured Brewers 2B Rickie, was the 12th overall pick in the 2008 draft, and like his brother, featured an intriguing skill set and raw athletic ability. He missed the first half of the 2009 season recovering from off season surgery, and never really put it together in 2009, posting a .278/.357/.425 line across A+/AA. The 10.1% BB rate is good, but his other secondary skills didn’t emerge, leaving him with a SecA of .291. Turning 23 in a few weeks, he needs to put up big numbers in AA this season and he should move up the list heading into next offseason.
Matt Antonelli (SDP) – SONAR -11.85
Once considered one of the best 2B prospects in the minors, Antonelli has been going backwards since his 2007 breakout. He put up just a .657 OPS last year at AAA as a 23 year old, and followed that up with a .196/.300/.339 line in a repeat of AAA this year as a 24 year old. Turning 25 in April, Antonelli is the poster boy for how quickly one’s prospect status can change, and how to not always get caught up in the hype. Coming off his terrible 2008 season at AAA, Baseball America still ranked him 9th in the Padres system, but I have a feeling he’ll rank much lower this time around.
Nick Noonan (SFG) – SONAR -12.83
Noonan, a supplemental first round pick in 2007, had a nice debut in the rookie level Arizona League after being drafted, hitting .316/.357/.451 with 18 stolen bases. His full season debut in 2008 didn’t go quite as well, as he struggled to the tune of a .279/.315/.415 line at Low A as a 19 year old. BA still went ahead and ranked him 5th in the Giants system, expecting a solid rebound in 2009. That rebound didn’t happen, as he hit just .259/.330/.397 in the hitter friendly Cal League. The 9.1% BB rate is the best thing you can say about his game at this point, as the power still hasn’t emerged, and his .251 SecA kind of sums things up. As a first rounder, he’ll continue to get chances, and he doesn’t turn 21 until May, so he has time on his side. A repeat of the Cal is probably in order.
Carlos Triunfel (SEA) – SONAR -6.85
Triunfel, signed for $1.3M in 2006, has been promoted at a crazy fast pace by Seattle, splitting his age 17 season between A and A+, then repeating A+ as an 18 year old in 2008, putting up a respectable .742 OPS in the process. Most 18 year old high school prospects, by comparison, spend their first season in rookie ball, 3 or 4 levels below where Triunfel was. 2009, however, didn’t go so well, as he missed most of the season with a broken wrist. When he was on the field he struggled to the tune of a .238/.273/.286 line. He doesn’t turn 20 until February, and he’s already logged 44 PA’s at AA, which is kind of crazy. He has been saddled with minor injuries (and a major one), as well as questions over his maturity, work ethic, and ultimate defensive landing spot, but he does have considerable upside. If he’s healthy in 2010, expect to see him in the Top 20 next year.
Shelby Ford (PIT) – SONAR -34.24
Ford was ranked as the Pirates 8th best prospect heading into 2009, but the wheels came off and the car flew off the cliff, as he hit just .200/.263/.297 at AA/AAA, an awful showing for a 24 year old “prospect”. His approach at the plate is suspect at best (5.9% BB rate), and he has no real power (.097 ISO), leading to a .185 SecA. Not good.
The Sleeper
Fernando Garcia (KCR) – SONAR 9.03
Garcia was a 28th round pick of the Royals in 2007 out of a JuCo program in Florida. He put up a horrid .088/.295/.088 line in a brief 44 PA debut in the rookie level Pioneer League, and repeated the level last year as a 19 year old, putting up an unimpressive .238/.311/.317 line in 215 PA. The Royals still had enough confidence in him to send him to the pitcher friendly MWL this year. Age appropriate for the level but with no real success the prior two seasons, Garcia hit .260/.392/.345 and manged to steal 29 bases in 44 attempts. At 6’0/160, he has the frame needed to add 15-20 pounds of muscle, which could add some power to his game, the one aspect he’s lacking, as he posted an ISO of just .085 in 2009. However, his 16.4% BB rate is outstanding, and he struck out in just 15% of his PA’s. Keep an eye on Garcia in 2010.
Summary: As I mentioned off the top, evaluating 2B and SS prospects is difficult. The top 1B prospect, Chris Carter, had a score of almost 100, and one other prospect had a score of 86, while the top 2B prospect had a score of only 57. Middle of the diamond prospects are tougher to find, its tougher defensively to stay there, and as you age, you are often forced to move off the position. Its what makes identifying these prospects so tough for scouts, because you’re looking not only at what the player is doing now, but whether or not he’ll have to move from the position in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, or never, and if his bat will be good enough to play at another position where the emphasis is more on offensive output. There are a number of interesting guys on the list, and a number of guys who probably are one year wonders. But that’s the point of doing this whole exercise. Next up is the hot corner. Look for that report in a few days time. And remember, if you’re going to trash my work, please read all of the stuff I’ve written about this system, what it’s trying to accomplish and why, before doing your trashing. Thanks.
“Russo was a 20th round pick in 2006, and is likely just noise on this list, as he turned 25 in July and did his damage in AA this year. His numbers were good; .326/.397/.431 with a 10.3% BB rate and a solid 13.5% K rate, but he doesn’t have a whole lot of power (.105 ISO) and his .241 SecA tells the story here. I suppose he could be a late bloomer with some ability to get on base, but he’ll likely never make it in an organization like the Yankees.”
He actually played AAA all season, as your chart above indicates. Russo missed time this year due to injury. It’s true that he does not have a lot of power, but here you have a 25 year old who is a .300 career minor league hitter and can handle three infield positions. I think Russo absolutely has the ability to handle a utility infield job in the bigs.
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ah, good catch. Fixed it, thanks.
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…liked the car references on the notes about shelby ford.
Interesting take on Adrian Cardenas, I’ll always thought he was going to be better than he now looks, for me, that is a perfect example of the bias shown towards Phils players, and makes having a 100% objective tool for filtering some of the noise pretty useful. keep up the good work, looking forward to the rest of the reports.
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I have to say that I agree with the Cardinal assessment. He’s a very nice player but its unlikely that he’ll ever be a starter for a contending team. You need power or speed. Not having either, unless you hit 320, makes you a 4A guy. Harold Garcia still has an outside shot of making the bigs though. He’ll certainly get every opportunity to advance in our desolate organization. I was surprised they left him in Lakewood all year but he may have been the stabilizing influence on that team.
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Kind of a dearth of “name” prospects at the keystone, but certainly some interesting sleepers to monitor. I think this list is indicative of what we might reasonably expect from SONAR, i.e. that there’s an emphasis on under-the-radar young guys in the lower minors whose components stand out.
I think the most surprising result to me is that Lawrie didn’t score a bit higher, because he was solid (but, granted, not spectacular) in every peripheral area, and he did it at age 19 in a league where the average line this year was .256/.329/.373. He seems, to me, pretty statistically similar to Chris Marrero (i.e. solid in every area without really being above-average in any one), but scored 17 points lower.
Any thoughts on that, James? And more broadly, any insight as to whether SONAR rewards or punishes those types of well-rounded statistical profiles (as opposed to, say, a guy with great power but serious contact problems)?
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I noticed that you said Sizemore was essentially a finished product at age 24. Is that really the scouting consensus for baseball players, that once they reach 23-25 age range their pretty much done developing?
If that is true it really makes this current Phillies team more of anomaly then I realized as a number of guys, albeit for a variety of reasons, (Howard, Utley, Werth Victorino, ect) have continued to improve significantly later then that.
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Let me look.
Marrero: 553 PA (A+/2A) .284/.358/.452 – 9% BB – .168 ISO – .266 SecA
Lawrie: 476 PA (A) .274/.340/.436 – 8.6% BB – .163 ISO – .274 SecA
Off the top, Marrero had about 80 more PA, which gives his score a bit more weight. He also had a slightly higher BB rate and slightly more power.
Marrero played the large majority of his time in the CAR, where he was a year younger than the average prospect. His line there was .287/.360/.464 and that line receives a lot more weight than his .267/.345/.387 line in AA. However, in AA he was 2 years younger than the average AA prospect should be, so his numbers get a bump there. Potomac, Marrero’s home park in the CAR, played as a pitcher’s park, not dominantly so, but a decent amount, but he was actually slightly better at home than on the road.
Lawrie split his time between the A level MWL and AA, which seemed like an odd promotion. In A ball, he went .274/.348/.454, which is similar but slightly inferior to Marrero’s numbers in A+ ball. However, his 53 PA stint at AA was poor, with a .269/.283/.308 line, and even though he was 3 years younger than the AA appropriate age, his score was negative at that level, which brings down his overall score. Wisconsin, Lawrie’s home park in the MWL, plays fairly neutral, suppressing HR slightly, but is closer to a neutral park than Potomac.
Marrero has the edge because his numbers were a bit better, his sample size is larger, and his AA performance actually slightly boosted his score, whereas Lawrie’s brief AA stint actually brought his score down. Lawrie’s AA stint probably doesn’t mean a whole lot, just as Marrero’s didn’t mean a whole lot, but if you isolate where they spent the bulk of their 2009, Marrero had slightly better numbers in about 80 more PA’s, which gives him an edge.
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This list really makes me appreciate Chase (The Man) Utley
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“I noticed that you said Sizemore was essentially a finished product at age 24. Is that really the scouting consensus for baseball players, that once they reach 23-25 age range their pretty much done developing?”
Players generally peak around age 27. But I think it’s a fair point to say that if 90% of players have not made it by age 25, they will never become regulars. Relief pitchers are exceptions.
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If you ran Cardenas numbers a few years ago I think he would have shown up better. It’s my impression in following him since the trade his hitting has petered out a little and as James mentioned the power they were projecting never came.
It’s like everyone says – it’s best to use your eyes AND the numbers, rather then rely on one.
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Cardenas did increase his extra base hits from 27 in 2008 to 49 in 2009. If you believe doubles are a harbinger of power, then Cardenas may be poised for a breakout season.
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Cardenas to me is a real good prospect, Don’t know these sonar numbers, But he hit at double aa, then struggled at triple a sent down, went back and hit, at 21 years old, now i am not a expert at his defense, but I do remember the a have a real good prospect at 2nd base maybe that is why they have moved him around, One thing is for sure he can hit and middle infielder who can hit are important, power in a second baseman is a plus. just my opinion
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