Reader Top 30; #5

2010 Reader Top 30

I hope everyone’s holiday went well. Things will be slow from now until after the New Year, so I’ll leave each voting slot open for a few days, but again, we’re in no rush. I’ve been spending some of my down time working on putting some of the SONAR scores up for other teams, and you can find them at the top of the page under the SONAR scores link. I’m doing them as I have time, as well as some other general work on the site. If you notice something is out of place, I’m probably just tweaking things under the hood, no reason to panic. Let’s roll on with the Top 30…

Tyson Gillies dominated the voting for #4, taking 57% of the vote, with Anthony Gose coming in a distant second at 17%. I’m going to add JC Ramirez to the voting for #5, as a number of folks wrote him in last time.

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02. Trevor May, RHP
03. Phillippe Aumont, RHP
04. Tyson Gillies, OF
05.

90 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #5”

  3. I vote Gose. The remaining pitchers don’t warrant such a lofty rating as yet. Among the position players, Gose offers the likelihood of a certain level of accomplishment combined with the possibility of more, moreso to a higher degree than the others, I say.

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  4. I voted for Santana. It’s very uncharacteristic of me to anoint a 17 year old with only a short season under his belt as top 5. I think his potential is tremendous. Valle was also strongly considered. Bastardo would have been in the top 5 if he was being considered as a starter. Everything points to him being a bullpen guy. I like him a lot and he’ll be in my top 10 for sure and might vote for him at #6.

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  5. I voted for Santana too as I have a suspicion that he’s the player in the farm system most likely to become a superstar. Superstars don’t come along every day of the week (by my count the Phillies haven’t produced a true superstar outfielder since Chuck Klein or, if you’re very generous with the term, Richie Ashburn).

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  6. If your standard of true superstar outfielder is inner circle Hall of Famer, you’re probably aiming too high.

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  7. Domingo Santana. Somehow I get the feeling that Santana would be the prospect that would be the most interesting to other teams in trades. He also seems the only superstar potential left.

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  12. I voted Gose. I like Santana a lot, but have to discount for only having a partial season of play. Ditto Cosart. Both coming soon for me, but I think Valle will be next. More playing time, premium position, position of need.

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  15. catch 22 I’m wondering how a rookie of the year, an MVP award, and being the fastest player ever to 100 and 150 HR’s doesn’t make someone a superstar.
    Also what about the universally acknowledged number one player at your position and likely Hall of Famer.
    I guess I can somewhat understand not counting a 3 time all star, 3 time gold glover, and the former MVP who has broken a couple big records but not really.

    please explain what a “true” superstar is

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  16. Voted for Gose here.

    I definitely was impressed by Santana’s numbers, but it’s still a really small sample size. I mean we hardly know anything about the kid. I can’t even find a picture of him online. Let’s see if he can hold his own in a little more advanced league next year and if he still puts up video game power numbers then we’ll definitely have something to get excited about.

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  18. Gose here.
    Starting to really like Aumont the more I read about him. A bit of pressure on Gillies and him to perform this year. Its going to be interesting to compare Gullies/Gose numbers all year.

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  19. i think he said superstar outfielder. anyway i went with santana but like i said 5-8 is interchangeable to me. we have developed plenty of superstar of’s… tom marsh, ron jones, steve scarsone and the immortal jeff grotewald (remember they were thinking of trading dykstra b/c of his awesome spring training).

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  20. thebestrbevr21,

    Catch 22 was referring, correctly in my opinion, to outfielders exclusively – not first basemen and short stops.

    Anyway, I voted for Santana. I was torn between Santana and Gose, but I couldn’t ignore his ultimate ceiling.

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  21. Voted Gose for today, I’ve got singleton right behind him, small sample under his belt but more walks than k’s a decent batting average coupled with his frame and young age makes me a big fan of his.

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  24. I was thinking back to Phillie outfielders of the past. Even Greg Lusinski who I would not consider a superstar, was drafted as a first baseman, I think. You are right , I am 57, in my lifetime could it be that Richie Asburn is the last truly great homegrown outfielder.

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  25. I was thinking back about the outfielders, even Greg Lusinski who I would not consider a superstar was drafted orginally as a first baseman as I recall, I do not think he played left field in the minors. I am 57 in my life time Rich Asburn is the only truly home grown outfielder who was a true star.

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  28. Someone stuffing the box for Gose? 119 seems like a hell of a lot one day into voting…then again, what do I know? I voted for Santana…

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  33. Pat Burrell had some very good seasons. Two years with OPS above .900, two others between .890 and .900, and his last year in Philly at .875.

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  34. I went with Valle. Like Earl Weaver, I have always had a soft spot for left-handed power hitting catchers. Valle’s shown a bit more already than the other remaining prospects and and plays the toughest defensive position on the field. Gose is still mostly about potential. The pitching prospects are either young or have injury concerns. Santana only had 139 plate appearances, but according to SONAR his age trumps the small sample size and I like Santana better than Gose at #6. Speaking of SONAR, compare Valle (60) to Gose (40); it is no contest. Granted it doesn’t include defense where Gose might beat Valle, but at 18 years old, Valle has plenty of time to learn. The Phillies have always had great success developing catchers including at least 5 major league all-stars since I started following the team in the 70’s: Bob Boone, John Stearns, Darren Daulton, Ozzie Virgil, and Mike Lieberthal plus major league regulars and second stringers Larry Cox, Jim Essian, Bill Nahorodny, Bobby Estalella, Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste, Jason Jaramillo, and Lou Marson. (I’ve always wanted to make at that list. I probably forgot somebody). In the middle of last season I heard Ruben Amaro talking about him similarly to Travis D’Arnaud (when I learned his name is pronounced Vah-yay), which I have to take into consideration. The Phillies have traded Jaramillo, Marson, and D’Arnaud. In keeping only Valle of their major league starting catcher prospects, while stocking up on fast outfielders, I’m guessing they like him a lot and they’ve proven to me they know how to develop catchers.

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  35. “Burrell was a lot better then he’s given credit for.”

    True, but still no superstar. Abreu was, but of course he wasn’t developed by the Phils. Luzinski IMO was a bit better than Burrell but still no superstar. Close, though. If his defense was a tad better, or he sustained his peak longer, then he would have been.

    So … yeah, Ashburn was the last one.

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  36. burrel was a lot better than people give him credit for.
    terrible defense, but his offense was top level. he should have made a couple of all star teams, but people hate on the low batting average high OBP guys to much still.

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  38. I guess if the Hall of Fame isn’t good enough, Burrell doesn’t qualify as a superstar. He was better than he got credit for. Even his defense. His range wasn’t good, but he didn’t make a lot of errors. And, he had a hell of an arm.

    Even though I’m arguing the point, I did vote for Santana because of the superstar potential.

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  39. del ennis was bettr than burrell or luzinski. and catch did your post imply ashburn wasnt a superstar? i hope not. ashburn was the best defensive centerfielder of the 50’s , the best baserunner, and from 1950-60 had more hits than anyone in bb. i saw them all and the only reason people of mays, mantle, and snider was power and playing in new york. except for power ashburn held his own with the new yorkers.

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  42. Finding it very hard to believe that fireballing right-hander Scott Mathieson’s name hasn’t been added to the mix of prospects here. Granted, he has pitched previously in the big leagues but is still technically a rookie. And at 25, he still has plenty of upside after throwing in the high 90s during a rehabbing season in the minors and in the AFL. Does his past arm troubles scare people away? If healthy, he can have a huge impact on the big-league club this year and for years to come.

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  43. The Obvious difference between last year and this in the top candidates you have selected to be voted upon for positions 1 through 5, is this. With the exception of Antonio Bastardo, these top candidates are on average three years away from reaching the big league (hopefully) with the Phillies. They are being culled from the low minors. Last year they were all from the middle of the organization (Clearwater, Florida State League, High A) on up to the top.(Lehigh Valley, International League, AAA).
    Ruben. you have literally given away the farm, in your first 14 months as GM.

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  44. Went J.C. Ramirez here, and looks like I’ll be doing that for quite awhile.

    Maybe I’m being overly selective right now, but I’m focusing on Ramirez’s numbers from 2008, when he tackled Low-A as a 19-year old — the same age that May took on Low-A, incidentally. And the comparison isn’t all that unfavorable…

    Ramirez (2008): 8.20 K/9 — 2.76 BB/9 — 0.63 HR/9 –48.0% GB — 3.55 FIP
    May (2009): 11.06 K/9 — 5.00 BB/9 — 0.35 HR/9 — 36.6% GB — 2.99 FIP

    Ramirez showed superior control and ground ball rate, and it’s not like he was doing it solely on guile — his raw stuff is pretty impressive. Now, he did have a rough go of it in the Cal League, and that can’t be ignored, but that place is murder on pitchers, so I’m willing to cut him some slack for it. He just turned 21, and while he has work to do on his secondary offerings, he’s still got good upside, and plenty of time to reach it. I’d start him in Clearwater this year to let him gain some confidence after his rough 2009, and I think he’s our second best pitcihng prospect behind May at this point.

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  45. philsfarm is totally right, Matheison should be next on the list. He could have an immediate impact on the big club and he does have a major league ready arsenal.

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  46. Dennis O.
    Exacatly the point they went from a team with viable backups
    to a seminude entity waiting for the first injury when they will
    have to trade the last of near ready prospects.
    Ditto on the Matheison thing . The next vote after Bastardo is his . Santana after that. I beleve at some point the season may depend on those two pitchers.

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  48. No doubt that the farm is thinner at the top this year. But I don’t agree that it matter much for this year’s team.

    Some of those guys weren’t any better than replacement level (most of the guys in the first Lee trade) and a couple of them weren’t going to be ready this year to step in anyway (including Drabek). The only guy who would have been serious injury protection would have been Taylor.

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  49. Dearth of catchers now puts the Jaramillo trade in bold relief as a big mistake, which I described as such at the trade. A catcher who can hit well from the left side who projects as a solid backup, or platoon catcher, or an emergency starter for Phils (possibly long-term starter level for lower level team or for Phils in 2-3 years) has good value. Solid intelligent guy with all that traded for a guy who was being passed around from team to team. All because he did not tear up upper minors during his first pass. Happens to a lot of guys who eventually become decent major leaguers. We gave up on him too fast and could use him now.

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  50. I am happy people are seeing a lot in Valle, Santana, etc. Tells me the people who read a lot more than me about these guys have heard something good, combined with the obvious great (albeit short-term) performances. Personally, I need to see a guy do something in full-season before I take him seriously, so those guys drop down for me, unless the person has obilierated some top amateur competition as a mega-prodigy. I don’t dismiss them, just need more evidence. We are in an age when cheap evidence counts. Trials built around flimsy hypotheses, etc., guys ranked high on some winter league ABs, etc. I need something substantial. I went with Gose, who was productive and made a mark in SAL in his first full pro season, although he will need to keep improving to stay at #5 for me.

    Again, happy people are excited, I just drop them down a bit until I see more.

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  51. I voted for Santana btw. Gose I like, but want to see him demonstrate that he has a hit tool before I rate him this highly.

    I think we are under-rating Ramirez, but I wouldn’t put him this high.

    Too many injury concerns with Bastardo.

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  52. Not knowing very much about the Seattle prospects, out of the ones we have still in the system the player IMO who will make the greatest impact is Sanatana……Drabek & Taylor will both be All-Stars 1 day, but we got Doc so it is what it is……I am not in love with any of the already enplaced prospects on this list, and I truly believe Santana is going to explode over the next 24-36 months & become our most heralded prospect since Ryan Howard circa Reading 2004-05……..

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  54. Agree Bastardo and Mathieson are near the top. They will be next for me. Then I will get to the lottery tickets.

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  55. “Dearth of catchers now puts the Jaramillo trade in bold relief as a big mistake, which I described as such at the trade.”

    Jaramillo’s 26 and he produced a .673 OPS in Pittsburgh. Maybe I’m missing something, but I really doubt he projects as more than a backup/AAA catcher at this point. How often does a team regret trading that type of player?

    A few posters have made reference to proximity to the majors, or likelihood of landing the big league job. I think it’s fair to rank a prospect higher who has accomplished more in the minor leagues. But I do not rank a prospect higher just because he’s a AAA player, or because there’s an immediate organizational need for that player. Scott Mathieson could be an important piece in our bullpen. But I rate him the same whether he’s got a locked job, or whether there are seven established relievers on the team.

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  56. The Jaramillo trade makes less sense if they had it in their minds to trade Marson. Better a decent backup than nothing.

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  57. Yes, I was just referring to outfielders. Utley is definitely at superstar at 2nd. Howard is or is close to a superstar at first, and Jimmy has years where he plays like a superstar. A superstar is a guy who lights up the statistic board like a pinball machine. A guy who has the ability to be an inner circle hall of fame guy, depending on longevity and whether he realizes that potential. Yes, that’s what I’m talking about. Santana may have that potential.

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  58. Looks like Gose has pretty much locked up the #5 spot though Santana has made an impressive push for 2nd in the voting at 23%.

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  59. sorry for all of the typos. I actually can write, when I put my mind to it.

    My parting thought . . . the loss of M. Taylor has been as difficult as any minor leaguer the Phils have ever had. I really wanted to see him develop here. And, frankly, when Jayson Werth’s contract comes up for renewal, I think any money they saved on Halladay will be given up when they have to sign Werth – a move that may not have been necessary had they brought up Taylor. Oh yeah, and when and if we make it to the WS, you can also think about MT’s absence in the DH spot. If he hit his stride this year, they would have had a very formidable line-up with the DH.

    I suspect we’ll be talking about the Halladay trade for years. I hope I won’t be as upset about it then as I continue to be now.

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  60. I’m not upset about it. I’m a huge Michael Taylor fan. But he’s gone to a place where he will receive his due opportunity, and I hope he makes the best of it.

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  61. The Jaramillo trade was great at the time. A back-up Triple-A catcher for a back-up major league catcher. That’s getting good value. And, it still looks good today. The problem was getting nothing in return for Paulino in trade.

    Catch 22, you have some crazy high standards for superstar. J-Roll and Howard are both All-Stars and former league MVPs. Neither are flashes in the pan. That says superstar to me.

    I like both Mathieson and Bastardo, but I don’t rate either all that high. Both have appeared in and underwhelmed in the majors. Both also are pretty huge injury risks. That really mitigates their high-minors status. What we’re left with are relief pitchers.

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  62. Lets get this straight they got much less than nothing for Paulino. They got Jack Taschner. Now right handers hit .313 against him but that is okay left handers hit .323. You might as well took 900k and threw it down the drain. No that would of been better. And in case you think ’09 was a freak, lefties hit
    .279 in ’08. Ruben did the Giants a giant favor. Jaramillo, Marson,Paulino , a jar of peanut butter anything but ole threw up there Jack.
    Correction there is no risk in Mathieson and Bastardo if they don’t fit you send them back. Obtaining some over the hill pitcher for over a million is a risk because he will pitch to justify his salary even if he stinks.

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  63. I stand corrected that Valle is right handed. To show the unreliability of the world wide web, it is easy to find at least 1 popular web site that has him Bats/Throws: L/L (eg, firstinning.com), L/R (eg, http://www.thebaseballcube.com), R/L (eg, http://www.baseball-reference.com, fangraphs.com) and R/R (www.baseballamerica.com, web.minorleaguebaseball.com)! That is all 4 combinations except for switch hitting! The final one is the one linked from Phillies.com so I’ll assume Right/Right is right! For me the first 5 Google hits of “sebastian valle statistics” give me all 4 combinations, with R/L coming in twice before L/L on the 5th ranked page. I had originally used the Baseball Cube, which is #1 in my Google search. Regardless, I still would not change my vote for Valle this high.

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  64. To me, a superstar player is an elite player among elite players – that’s just how I’ve always looked at it. I’m not just talking about guys who make the all-star team, I’m talking about the very best players in baseball on a consistent basis.

    Who is a superstar to me? Among the Phillies, Chase Utley is definitely in that category. Ryan Howard is probably there because of his unbelievable productivity over several years – it’s a fair term to describe him. Who else is a superstar? Albert Pujols and A-Rod are probably the most obvious examples. I would also put Hanley Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Johan Santana, Manny Ramirez and probably Halladay in that mix. Those aren’t the only players, just the ones that immediately come to mind.

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  65. I voted for Gose based on his big year at Lakewood. This from a guy no one expected to be this advanced at this point. However, looking at your list to vote on: you still have 3 pitchers throwing mid 90’s, a power hitting catcher, a power hitting outfielder and a good looking 1b prospect. All this from a system that just lost 7 of its top guys. There are many other guys with the ability to enter this discussion after a good year: Collier, Colvin, etc. It is a great time to be a Phillies fan.

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  67. Catch 22 – “probably Halladay” shows your trade bias. Halladay is a true superstar pitcher, an “absolute”. He will more than likely be an all-star 3 of the 4 years with the Phillies and will be in the top 3 of Cy Young voting probably 2 of the 4 years and win 1. He is an elite superstar, you may not like the trade, but to downgrade him to “probably” is ridiculous. He is more superstar than any other Phillie not named Utley who if you were starting a team, would be picked second behind Mr. Pujols.

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  68. @Ken…Valle is definitely a R/R guy. Having seen him play this year, I can attest to first-hand experience. That said, I went with Valle in this position because of his production at a premium position, which counts more to me than what Gose/Santana have done. Will go with them next, and then a long run of pitchers with Singleton thrown in there.

    I can’t see voting for Bastardo or Mathieson quite this high. Guys that you are projecting to be 7th/8th inning relievers really shouldn’t be in your top 5, no matter how close they are to the majors.

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  69. I disagree totally with GregA on Mathieson (and Bastardo, too, for that matter). The Yankees had Joba Chamberlain that night as an eighth inning bullpen guy. Guys who can bridge the gap to a reliable closer really do deserve to be “that high.” The Mathieson who Phillies fans saw a few years back and the guy who was blowing heat in the Arizona Fall League are two totally different pitchers. The guy is fully recovered and could be a huge part of the makeup of the club at some point this season — just how Joba was before someone had the bright idea that he needed to be a starter.

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  70. Mathieson will be in my top 10, but I’m downgrading him toward the bottom of top 10, because of his extensive injury history and my doubts about his ability to stay healthy for an extended period of time. I think he should start season in Phillies’ pen, but wouldn’t bet on his ability to stay healthy for the whole season. He’s a hard guy to rank, because he has equal odds to be a significant major league contributor and to have his career be over this year.

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  71. Like to see how a young player responds in a short playoff environment in must win games against better than average opposition. Gose went 11 for 27 (.407) in the Sally playoffs. Like him here.

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  73. The risk of a Mathieson or Bastardo injury doesn’t really affect the Phillies. It affects his career.

    I can and do deny 70+ stolen bases. Gose won’t be able to run nearly as often at higher levels. Pitchers develop pick-off moves. Catchers’ arms get better. Nobody runs that often on Charlie Manuel’s club.

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  74. Section 205 – I understand your points but, truly, how I view Halladay the player hasn’t one thing to do with how I assess the trade. I think reasonable people could debate whether Roy Halladay is a superstar or not but I readily admit that if he’s not, he’s pretty darn close (knowing, of course, that the term “superstar” is entirely subjective – someone who’s a superstar to me may not be to you). When I think superstar pitchers I think about Seaver, Maddux, Clemens, Pedro (at his peak), Santana, Gibson, Johnson . . . you get the picture. Is Halladay in their class? He very well could be. I’m sure that as I begin to see him pitch every 5th day, my view of him may change.

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  75. As for starting a team and who I would pick, if you wanted me to pick pitchers that I would have for the next seven to ten years, I’d probably pick several guys ahead of Halladay; if it’s this year and next, Halladay would be at or close to the top of the list.

    Long term (7-10 years), I’d rather have many other pitchers, including Lincecum, Lester (most filthy stuff in baseball in my opinion) and Verlander, and perhaps even Hamels (I don’t think he’s even scratched the surface of what he can do yet), but even on that longer term list, however, Halladay would be very high.

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  76. It’s very hard to rate Mathieson, he’s older and has such a long injury history. I’d probably rate him in the low teens with the upside of the top 4-7 if he pitches as well as we think he can.

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  77. catch just a quick point, you forget lefty in your superatar pitchers, and robbie but i dont think you were going back to the 50’s.

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  78. Disagree on Jaramillo comments. He hits righties pretty decently, enough for a platoon. And he will improve for next 2-3 years, much like Chooch (maybe a notch belwo defensively, but a respectable defensive catcher).

    And my comment was made in the context of losing Marson and D’Arnaud and said nothing about him being a bona fide starter.

    Who are the wealth of MLB-ready backups you are seeing now who can hit even a little, as Jaramillo can. High .600s and low-tp-mid .700s OPS in future are darn good for a backup C. Platoon against righties would make the OPS a shade better.

    I don’t agree that only all-stars have value, as was inferred by the general tone of Alan’s comment. To me, role players have considerable value and those coming from our system playing cheap a great deal more than the average role player. Phils would like to have JJ back now, you can be dead certain.

    And Paulino is not an upgrade over JJ. A big guy with talent who performs only sporadically.

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  79. You could easily (and even correctly) argue that trading Jaramillo cost us about $1.2 million (the difference between Schneider and JJ) in salary as we had to sign Schneider to backup Ruiz instead of using an internal option.

    Granted, Schneider will likely have a better year than Jaramillo but it should be factored in.

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  80. Back to some people’s points on Gose’s ability to get on base – the last two months of the season he showed improvement in his ability to get on base. Not a lot, but some. It’s nice to see that sort of improvement over the year. Hopefully it will continue into next year.

    I voted for Bastardo because players close to the majors are much more valuable than low-A guys, even if their ceiling is lower. Bastardo obviously has flaws, but he does have demonstrable strengths as well and can get ML hitters out. Hopefully he can impove on his weaknesses in 2010.

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  81. Yeah, Gose did show strong improvement in his K/BB ratio from the 1st half to the 2nd half.

    Remember that he was in his first full season as a pro…he did great in that context.

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  82. Carlton and Roberts were superstars, no doubt about it (Roberts was dominant for a shorter period of time, but as the peak of his game, he was amazing). I grew up in hated Mets country as a hated Mets fan (no bandwagon jumping folks, I’ve been a diehard Phillies guy since the early 90s), so, as much as I try, I can’t forget about good old Tom Seaver – man, was he good.

    On another topic, is there really that much to say about Jason Jaramillo? I’m stunned by the continued interest in such a marginal player who, had he remained here, would have gotten fewer than 100 ABs last year.

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  83. Catch the point is that there are no viable mlb ready player in the system. That is the context. Its is more likely that the new bench will continue to decline. At one time Schneider was the best defensive catcher in baseball but those day are probably
    gone.

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  84. nowheels —
    I don’t think it is serious that we don’t have any major league ready position players, given the composition of the ML Phillies. We paid a $ price this winter for not having an ML ready 3B. That has been a big problem for a while, with no imminent solution. But for this winter, the big club $ budget still gets us a quality team. That won’t be so going forward, and the trades put a greater burden on our best minor league position players to perform. Brown now absolutely has to make it as a major league starting corner OF within the next 18 months. Gose or Gillies need to make it as a quality ML CF within 3 years. Valle needs to be ready in about 3 years. Galvis or Villan have to be at least decent ML SS within about 3 season. We now have another 3 years to somewhere, somehow develop a 3B.

    In pitching, we’re fine on the farm.

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  85. I think you just made my point. This coming year my friend. This year ! And trading Lee who can throw a CG put even more strain on a questionable bullpen. Your backup infielder gets on base infrequently. Basically it the starting eight and little else.

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  86. The bench is still thin – surprisingly so, actually. Maybe they’ll still get somebody. But I thought that last year and you know what happened? Nothing – that’s what happened. And it sure didn’t help them during the WS.

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  87. in the words of my man Iverson

    were talkin about jaramillo, jaramillo, a back up catcher, not ruiz, not ruiz, jaramillo!!! i know the back up catcher position is important, i know that but were talkin about jaramillo!!! ruiz puts his body out there like its his last game and were talking about jaramillo, jaramillo!!!
    can we go a day without mentioning the back up catcher position

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  89. Ricky branch,
    gose’s playoff performance should be pretty much counted as much as any other 30 or so at bats during the season. he probaby had less than 30 at bats in the playoffs. i bet you can find other 25 at bat streches when he did really well to, but playoffs are short. really short. its not really worth even thinking about.

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  90. I voted for Gose because of his speed and arm. And I like that his name reportedly came up in Jays talks.

    nowheels, I feel your pain over the Lee trade. All I think about is how a Big Three makes everyone better: your 3,4,5 starters get more mismatches; the bullpen uses fewer innings. But it’s not to be. Checkmate. Let’s let it rest as our moderator has asked. Besides, I still need to get over it. Thanks.

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