Reader Top 30; #2

2010 Reader Top 30

Of course there was very little drama in yesterday’s voting, as Domonic Brown is the team’s obvious #1 prospect. The voting from here on out will get more and more interesting, as there is no clear cut obvious guy after Brown. Last year the top 5 or 6 was pretty well defined, this year its much more wide open. I’m not sure how many guys I can add in each day, but I’ll try to get at least 7 names on the poll each time. Remember, you’re free to argue for your guy in the comments section, but please do so in a respectful manner. Check below the fold for the voting on #2

01. Domonic Brown, OF
02.

108 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #2”

  1. I went with May here, if only because before the trade he was probably the top of the second tier of prospects. I really don’t know how to rank the new guys, as I have never seen them play, nor video of them playing, not even multiple scounting reports. Instead I am going to go with the guys I know first until these new prospects can prove themselves.

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  2. This is tough! I went with Gillies, as he just seems like everything Gose could be if he tightened up his plate discilpline. Easily could have gone with May or Aumont based on upside, but I think Gillies is the best combo of upside and current performance.

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  3. I took Sebastian Valle. The pitchers all carry some degree of projection and risk about them. Gose is a nice athlete and burner, but we’re still talking about a player who hit .259. Gillies has very good numbers, but I’m wary evaluating a hitter from High Desert. Valle is the guy whose evaluation I’m most confident in.

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  4. Joe makes the logical argument for May, but I went with Santana. I have never seen the guy play obviously, but a player that young, with that kind of size, and that kind of production just screams upside potential. May might clearly be the #2 now, but I went for potential.

    Ironically though, I didn’t apply the same principle in voting for #1 while Taylor was in the system. I went with Taylor over Brown as #1 due to him being major league ready. So I am not being perfectly consistent in my own voting.

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  5. Went with May over Valle simply because he is probably the best pitching prospect in the organization at this time. You can probably throw a blanket over the next 4-5 players and make valid arguments for putting them in any order.

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  6. Help us Obiwan May. You are our only hope.

    Hurts to put a guy from low A, who is very promising but not really proven yet, at #2. But he is the cream. Sure we still have talent. But trading 6 proven guys away and our best catching prospect REALLY hurts. (Proven = clearly belongs in high minors, produces well there, and WILL get MLB opportunity, only doubt is whether MLB will expose some achilles heel.)

    All of our arms now are unproven, given this definition, meaning that all of them could fall by the wayside in next 2-3 years via injury or Julian Sampson-type performance. A dark view, but definitely within the spectrum of possibilities.

    Like that 1, 2, or 3 of the 10 or so very good arms we have will make it and be good, and May is the most likely of the group.

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  7. BTW, the same holds true of our position prospects. The biggest hit we took in the trades was increasing risk exponentially. Ceiling still there, but after Brown, risk is BIG.

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  8. “Valle is the guy whose evaluation I’m most confident in.” This illustrates my point. It is a reasonable statement, but shows how much of a crapshoot our system has become. We are pushing unknowns who have 2 months success in a winter league, but have not shown up big in our system yet. Valle could be very good if he can catch and his hitting is real or he could be the next Russ Jacobson.

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  9. I went with Aumount. Similar repetoire as Drabek with power curve and mid 90s fastball , still needs to refine his change, but is a year younger.

    In a small sample size (really small) he did demonstrate the ability to get major league hitters out during the WBC. And to get out of an inning with no runs after loading the bases is pretty telling, especially if he’s slated to become a closer.

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  10. I also went with Aumont. His stuff sounds potentially dominating to me (I’d try him as a starter to refine mechanics, command and pitches) and it’s not like there’s a more advanced, star-potential talent with more experience/track record there to knock him down the list.

    One thing’s for sure, after this season, this list will change a lot as some guys explode, and some guys fizzle. The jump to AA is the toughest, and it seems like all of these guys are targeted for High A or AA.

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  11. Though it seems to me the prospect pool has diminished a bit, looking at what remains, I will advocate for the #2 spot; newcomer Phillippe Aumont, RHP. It sounds to me like he has the quality and variety of stuff to return to starting at AA Reading. I believe I seen him in a scouting video in the draft year, and it is said he has a well-regarded sinking fastball, hammer curve, slider , and splitter. Must be lots of sinking stuff. It may be he can acclimate to the league in Reading, and advance to the point of a mid or late season promotion. Perhaps Aumont and his stable-mate Ramirez can ad vance to the role of MLB starters, perhaps even by the end of the upcoming season, and ameliorate the trading of Cliff Lee. How’s that?

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  12. Ha, voted May – but now I’m second guessing and thinking I should have just went with Domingo Santana. All of these guys are a LONG way off and have multiple question marks. Why not go with the guy with the highest upside?

    Ah well, it looks like I’ll get to vote for him at #3.

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  14. I think younger/raw talent in the Minors differs only than more experienced talent by how ready they are, and in turn, how needy the Major League club is-coming off of 2 straight WS apperances, the Phils aren’t crying for help tomorrow.
    I voted for Valle simply because, if the organization was willing to trade Marson and D’Arnaud over the last 2 years, that has to say something about him.

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  16. I went with May on pure potential. I don’t enough of a track record to feel warm and cushy about it. Santana intrigued me but I had a difficult time voting for a 16/17 with a short year of data to go on. Valle’s one of my favorites and he will definitely top 5. Still digesting the new guys.

    Who is the write-in vote?

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  17. I went with Gillies based on his combination of age/level/projection. He seems like an advanced Gose based on all reports and let’s face it, even if he’s new, most of us are going on reports anyway as the majority haven’t seen these guys first hand.

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  18. I voted for Santana. The combination of his age and production in the GCL has me excited. Granted he’s far away from the show, but so is everyone. High Desert kind of makes it impossible for me to judge the seattle prospects. By July I think we will have a much better handle on the top 10, right now its just a crapshoot.

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  20. My gut instinct was to go with May — good velocity, developing stuff, good pitcher’s frame, racked up plenty of strikeouts in Lakewood. But when I analyze the situation, it’s tough for me to go with a guy here whose only sample is 77.1 Low A innings, who walked 5.0 guys per 9 innings in that sample, and who already projects as a fly ball pitcher (38.7% GB). I have a hunch he’ll take a leap forward this year, but I’m reluctant to put him up quite this high until he does.

    So I went with a “safer” choice, that being Tyson Gillies. I don’t doubt that 7 or even 8 guys on this Top 10 will have higher ultimate ceilings than Gillies, but I already see his floor as that of a 4th outfielder, which is higher than anyone else save for Domonic Brown. I’m confident the defense and baserunning will come around with development, and I like the advances he made in controlling the strike zone in 2009. The BABIP (.395 in 2009) will come down, but his development of a hitter can hopefully counteract that, and I think that if everything goes right, he can be a league average center fielder. That may not sound like the sexiest thing given the high ceiling guys behind him, but he’s a far better bet to reach that ceiling, and he’ll be a darn good player if he does.

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  21. This choice was difficult. I was thinking about Gillies or May, and I decided to go with the Trevor May. He’s probably the best arm in the system.

    I really like everything I’ve read about Gillies, plus I was always a fan of Clark Gillies, so maybe they’re related somehow and Tyson has some of Clark’s toughness in him.

    – Jeff

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  24. Wow… this is a very timely survey. It really puts the moves that that we’ve made into perspective. Taylor, Drabek, Knapp, Marson, Donald, D’Arnaud and Carrasco are all gone and we now see what remains.

    It’s extremely difficult to rank our prospects at this point… we have a lot of players with upside potential but few that are in advanced phases of development. Some people will look at the list and rank based on who might be able to help the big league club in the near future… I prefer to rank with a stronger emphasis on upside potential. Valle is probably the closest thing to a sure thing- there is no doubt in my mind that he will be able to help a major league ballclub and he could turn out to be a terrific backstop… but his upside might be somewhat limited so he falls a little further down my list. If upside was the only determinant, you could argue for guys like Singleton and Dugan… I went with Trevor May but could have easily went with Gillies or Aumont. Gillies is further along than May or Aumont but those pitchers have the most upside, in my opinion. I rank May a little higher because there are fewer question marks.

    Quick question for anyone who knows… what’s the word on Chance Chapman? Also… why is Neil Sellers not a higher rated prospect? He’s putting up great numbers; after posting a solid .317 average with 17 HR in AA, he killed the ball in winter leagues hitting .371!

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  25. I went with Aumont. He’s only a year older than May, but is already two levels advanced and has very similar peripherals. I can understand the votes for May though since he is the “known” commodity.

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  26. People voting Aumont: he’s not going to be a starter ever in his career. his body just won’t let him. he has a degenerative hip issue and if he pitches for any extended period of time he has a lot of pain. his body just isn’t capable of that. he’s going to be a relief pitcher. add in that he has bad mechanics and elbow issues already.

    i can’t justify putting a relief pitcher as our second best prospect. i voted May for that reason. big kid with a dynamite arm.

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  27. May, I guess. It’s not like the last couple of years, when you had trouble with # 10. Now, you have to think hard who is # 2.

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  28. I voted May. Big step down from #1 to #2. I perceive little difference in value among May, Valle, Gillies, Gose, Aumont, Santana and think a fairly strong case could be made for any ordering of these 6.

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  29. Original Chuck — Not so much Donald, but I think the other tradees would fill slots #2 -6, were they still here.

    Jamie — If Aumont is a future closer, that has a lot of value. Much as I like May, I think he is destined to be a #3 starter, perhaps #2 as an absolute stretch. Aumont being more advanced is a plus in his favor. So, I think May is only a hair above Aumont.

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  31. A. Gose got my vote because of a solid pro debut- (spectacular debut if you count only SB’s).
    Anyone confident enough in his abilities as a hitter/CF-er to abandon- or at least postpone- a pitching career when he throws high 90’s heat is someone I think has a major league future.
    As for the developing tools I think he’ll eventually hit for average with more power than most people expect and more than the new guy Gillies.

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  32. I was coming to say exactly what Jamie said about Aumont. I think after all the talk we had about moving him back to starting people are assuming he will. We don’t know that. The huge injury history is a big negative too – look at what injuries made Lidge this year for example. He went from dominant closer to swinging gate. I think there’s a better chance Ramirez, whose body type and scouting reports look solid, contributes more then 60 innings for the major league team at any point in his career.

    I don’t want to start a Lidge discussion, and I’m sorry if I do, but he just came to mind as a good example.

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  33. Voted for May.

    Don’t like Aumont much. I think it’s going to be an interesting yr in the minors for us. Hope alot of guys step up.

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  34. Went with Aumont. Injury risks seem overstated and the hip thing has been proven false. Love what he did in WBC and think with the proper refinement he can be a good starter. Hamels and Drabek both had big question marks looming over them as to whether they’d be durable physically(Hamels) or mentally(drabek) and they were able to overcome them. I think Aumont can and I like his attitude.

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  35. I voted for Gillies. I would’ve voted for Aumont if we knew for sure he’d be a starter, but we don’t. Of the rest, Gillies has played at the highest level, has the highest floor, the best plate discipline, and is pretty much what we hope Gose becomes. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but when talking about guys still in A ball and below, that’s a looooong way away.

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  36. I can’t argue with other votes, but consider a few Aumont points:

    Aumont was watched in Arizona where Looper and Co. said he threw a 95-97 mph power/sinker.

    He has thrown very few innings in his career, but has already pitched againts Youkilis and other pros, and looked okay in the process (I see many young talents get overmatched first time against a guy like Youkilis). So this is his baseline. His projection goes up from here.

    Looper knows of this guy. I don’t believe he’s here if he has a degenerative hip.

    I think they give him a chance to start to get more innings in his bank, better command of his pitches, and hopefully, improved mechanics/delivery that get repeated more as a starter. I think the improved mechanics/delivery will address the hip and elbow, but I may be naive. In any event, I don’t a troubling injury history with him.

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  37. “Aumont said he had no major problems with his hip this past season and that even if discomfort flares up, he knows how to deal with it.”

    Yeah, feeling “discomfort” in your hip when you throw is not a minor issue…especially when you’re 20. Its a warning sign that something isn’t quite right.

    It could be something minor like a slightly bulging disc, it could be a mechanical issue with his throwing motion, it could be something like Bo Jackson. Either way, its a problem even if it doesn’t “Hurt” right now.

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  38. Everyone is being a little hasty with their analyses and opinions of Aumont… should we be concerned? Yes but if he says that it’s not degenerative, why shouldn’t we believe him? With mechanical adjustments, age and strength training, he could very easily solve the problem. Plenty of guys have aches and pains… the Mariners may have dealt with the problem by moving him to the pen. The Phillies may choose to deal with the problem by teaching him proper mechanics and/or conditioning that hip.

    Bo Jackson’s injury is not comparable to this… getting hit by a linebacker and dislocating your hip is different than experiencing soreness or pain from repetitive motion.

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  39. May – though probably because I am biased towards our existing projects. In comparison to Aumont he is a starter though his stuff is not quite as good. I might tend to Valle or Gose next. Valle for his performance this winter and his premium position. Gose I have ahead of Gillies because he has more power potential and I am not a believer in Gilles’ stats from High Desert.

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  40. I think this all comes down to whether Aumont can start or not. If he can, and still maintain his stuff, he is clearly our #2 prospect based on tools/age/level. If he is a reliever, even a dominant one, his status takes a big hit and I’d move him down to the 6-8 range.

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  41. For all those mentioning Aumont hitting 97 in Arizona, it is also mentioning he put up a 12.00 ERA down there. He has huge stuff but is a work-in-progress command-wise and stuff-wise. I think he was hurt greatly by being moved out of the rotation even if he is eventually a closer. Lots of closers are starters in the minors so they can get more innings in.

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  42. I voted for Santana, without much conviction. He’s all upside, obviously, and the odds are better than he’ll never make the majors than that he’ll get there and cut a path of destruction, but that’s half the fun, right?

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  43. I dont know how Gillies isn’t getting more votes. If he put up those numbers in our system last year with his speed, then we would be talking about him with D.Brown. Yea he was in a hitters league but putting the ball in play and getting on base at such a high rate is going to be effective in any league that someone is in. May is so unproven, he hasn’t even played in advanced league. I remember Bastardo putting up lopsided numbers too at one point years ago.

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  44. …Valle is probably the closest thing to a sure thing- there is no doubt in my mind that he will be able to help a major league ballclub…

    Original Chuck, what leads you to this conclusion?

    Regarding opinions of Aumont: to each his own, obviously. But I will chime in that any organization that moves a 20-year old with that kind of potential to the bullpen has to be extremely concerned about his health and durability. So I think speculation on our part about moving him back to the rotation (“He’ll be fine, they can just revamp his mechanics!”) may be wishful thinking. And, of course, once he’s a reliever, you have to weigh the relative value of a reliever against any sort of starter or everyday position player. Personally, I’ve got him 8th on my Top 10.

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  45. This is certainly a lot tougher now. I went with May because he was absolutely dominating last year in the second half and in the playoffs. He’s a big strong righthander with a big future. He’ll be leading the Clearwater staff this year. We’ll sure have lots of ex-Phillies propsects to keep tabs on next year…

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  46. Andy – agreed that Aumont is just scratching the surface. With the number of innings he has thrown (small sample size), in Arizona and since he started baseball (age 14), inconsistency is likely to destroy his stats (especially as a reliver with fewer innings). Throwing 97 with sink (in addition to performance against Yokilis and a few others) means WAY more to me when projecting him forward than his current stats. But pointing out his stats is part of the picture, so I agree with including them.

    Anyway, Aumont needs to start! If down the road he gets converted to a reliever/closer, so be it.

    My ranking is based on him starting and developing as a starter.

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  47. I went with Gillies because of his SONAR! And from what I’ve heard it sounds like he has the makeup to translate what he did at High Desert into a great year at Reading.

    PP – is there an established media guide to pronounce these names correctly? Are we sure that Gillies doesn’t rhyme with Phillies? Everyone keeps saying “Gilliss”. I also heard Jody Mac last night pronounce Gose as “Goss”. The real laugher of the week was everyone trying to say d’Arnaud! I heard Marty pronounce it “darno” so I guess that’s right? Anyway, we really get connected with these guys thanks to you all and I’d like to think I’m saying their names right – even if it’s in my head.

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  48. I’m pretty sure it is ‘darno’, and I recall that from a earlier discussion on it here.

    Otherwise, I don’t speak no Paris-talk.

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  49. ****Bo Jackson’s injury is not comparable to this… getting hit by a linebacker and dislocating your hip is different than experiencing soreness or pain from repetitive motion.****

    To be very clear, I was not implying that it was. I was stating that we simply don’t know at this point.

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  50. At all the games I saw him in person at, it was pronounced “DAR-no” .

    Not that it matters anymore.

    Is it GILL-is? I’ve been wondering that myself.

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  51. I went with Aumont b/c I saw his WBC footage and he has a plus fastball with a hammer curve. I am sure the issue is repeating his delivery, which has probably led to some minor arm issues. However, based on pure stuff, this guy can be very good.
    The next time Jody Mac pronounces a prospect’s name correctly, will be the first. I remember his Ricky Bortalico butcher job.

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  52. “any organization that moves a 20-year old with that kind of potential to the bullpen has to be extremely concerned about his health and durability. ”

    I wouldn’t necessarily jump to that conclusion. Maybe they just wanted quick help with the big club’s bullpen? Or maybe they value a shut down closer more highly than others do? Or maybe their plan was to get him to the majors as quickly as possible, get him acclimated to MLB hitters, and then move him back to starter?

    I think a “wait and see” approach is better than conjecture at this point. Let’s all hope that he can be an effective starter, which, as we know, is way more valuable than even a dominant reliever.

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  53. I am so disgusted that they traded away Taylor that it is hard for me to even conjure up the strength to even type this reply. All of you fellow Phils fans better pray that nothing happens to any of the THREE outfielders cause you have no one in the minors to help out this year. It will take me a while to get over this situation. I will let the rest of you argue the merits of players none of us have ever seen play. To me its just a waste of time !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  54. mbbear wrote:
    “I think younger/raw talent in the Minors differs only than more experienced talent by how ready they are, and in turn, how needy the Major League club is-coming off of 2 straight WS apperances, the Phils aren’t crying for help tomorrow.”

    I strongly disagree with the first part of this statement and most others here will also.

    By far, the biggest difference between young talent and experienced talent is how genuine the talent is for success in the major leagues. Barring injury, every guy we traded will get multiple opportunities to play in the majors. We will be hugely surprised to see any one of them fail completely and sad stories will be written about any one who does not make it, surprising and rare as that would be at their level. The only question about these guys is the degree of success in the majors.

    The guys in lower minors, such as Valle, et al, will be quite volatile in their successes (as a group) as they attempt to rise through the system. Likely some will make it, but we don’t know who.

    If readiness and the need factor were the only criteria, as you say, evaluating and developing major league-ready players would be far easier. What makes it unpredictable and frustratingly difficult is the unknown of how these guys will perform as they rise through the system.

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  55. @ Seth: at the risk of continuing to profess my man crush on Jack Zduriencik, I sincerely doubt the current Mariners front office would: (1) be so short-sighted as to shuttle their top young arm off to the bullpen to give quick help to a non-contending team; or (2) fail to understand the relative value of starters and relievers. Bill Bavasi might have, but not Zduriencik.

    I’m more than willing to admit I’m wrong if the Phils are able to successfully convert him back into a starter, but I’m simply not optimistic at all about it.

    @ Dick Allen 15: I’m frustrated that Taylor’s gone too, as I think many in the organization continued to underrate him. But if any of the outfielders go down, Ben Francisco is a ready-made replacement, and Mayberry’s still kicking around to start against lefties and caddy for Raul out in left field. It’s after 2010, when Werth hits free agency, that we’ll really feel the sting of Taylor’s departure.

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  56. Aumont has 1 pitch. a 97MPH fastball that he can get by A+ hitters. he hit AA and get shelled. he hit the AFL and got shelled. 1 pitch isn’t going to make you successful after A+. unless he can develop anything else he’s nothing more than a big arm kid destined to be taken in the rule V draft.

    i don’t know how anyone can take gose over gillies at this point. gillies had the kind of season that we would HOPE gose could EVER have in the minors.

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  58. i went with aumont only if they keep him as a starter , and assuming all the scouting reports on his stuff is accurate, i dis-regarded his injury history ala cole hamels a few yrs back

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  59. I went with Aumont based on his almost unlimited potential. If Brown can be #1 based mostly on “projection”, Aumont’s stuff gets him #2. I predict we’ll see quite a bit of him in the Philly bullpen this year. Hopefully he can someday become a starter, but I’m fine with him breaking into the majors as a reliever.

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  60. to dickallen. i had taylor as our number 1 prospect myself but if one the of’s go down i find it hard to believe that manuel would have played him more then francisco/mayberry or even gload unless he destroyed the ball early on to merit more playing time. how upset will you be if we win the world series again?

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  61. Went with Gillies because I really like his swing and his overall approach at the plate. If you just watch his demeanor when batting, it says “I’m taking this over and you’re going to have to do something special to get me out.” Just seems to have a very good attitude.

    I know people may scoff, but certain batters just take control. Dykstra and Rose did. Feliz and a lot of others never do. Gillies just has that intangible quality.

    As for Aumont, the reason we can’t take his word for his hip problem is because he’s a 21 year old kid. What the heck does he know about degenerative conditions? I’m a retired doctor and I’m going to tell you all something really simple. If a repetitive action causes pain in a joint, there is nothing you can do to ameliorate that pain other than surgery, medication or stopping the offending motion. I assume it isn’t a disk problem or they’d have seen that on MRI. So, at some point, Aumont is either going to have to stop pitching, take medication or have surgery. In fact, there may be no surgery for what his problem is because they have not disclosed what it is. And medication only ameliorates symptoms. It does not “cure” the problem or keep it from progressing. So, labeling something degenerative or not is sort of beside the point. Aumont likely doesn’t know what his problem is, and he’s a kid who thinks he’s going to pitch forever. And that’s why he can’t be trusted to discuss it realistically.

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  62. Philly Friar,

    I was wondering why you have Gillis’s “ceiling” pegged at league average.

    It seems to me that league average seems more of a fairly reasonable expectation then a “ceiling.” Especially since you have his floor at a 4th outfielder.

    In addition, I was looking at some stats for CFers last year and from a quick glance they did not seem to be a particularly good hitting group. I couldn’t find what average numbers were but my quick guess was that a good defensive CF with a 300 average and good basestealing is above average even without any real power. So I have to think his “ceiling” is significantly higher then league average because the criteria just mentioned seems very attainable for someone with his speed and plate control at his age.

    Maybe I’m misunderstanding but I think many people are selling him pretty short.

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  65. echoing AKSMITH:

    Aumont’s already been labeled with maturity issues. he’s angry about how he’s been handled. he’s not going to admit that he has a problem because he wants to pitch in the big leagues as fast as possible. he’s going to pitch through whatever problem he has till it breaks him down to where he’s done as a pitcher. that is normal 20 year old mentality.

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  66. I voted for Gillies, based on the same favorable projections that you have all heard by now. I think has a lot of potential value as a lead-off hitter, especially for the Phillies in a few years when Rollins has slowed down or left the team. It seems his plate discipline and ability to hit for average are more promising than Gose.

    I hope he goes by Ty Gillies (GILL-is?). I like my ballplayers to have ballplayer names. We’ve had a good run lately–Chase Utley. Cole Hamels. etc. It seperates the Tuffy Gosewisches from the Mike Taylors. I’m (semi) joking of course.

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  67. Pete: LarryM and I were discussing this on the SONAR thread, but I want to stress that I don’t mean league average as a bad thing — especially in a relatively premium position like center field. For instance, Victorino is a tick above average in center field, and he’s obviously a very valuable player for the Phillies.

    To put it in perspective, the cumulative line for MLB center fielders last year was .267/.338/.415. I think Gillies’ realistic ceiling is as a .280/.350/.400 kind of guy, with some steals and pretty good defense in center field. I outlined in the other thread my concerns over his hitting, which is why I don’t think he’s a good bet to consistently hit .300 in the majors.

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  68. ****As for Aumont, the reason we can’t take his word for his hip problem is because he’s a 21 year old kid.****

    I agree. I do think its telling that he admits to discomfort regardless of that. You shouldn’t feel discomfort when throwing…its a warning sign of something wrong.

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  69. So y think that ciccotti the phillies doctor wouldnt have seen a problem. I know this doctor he is one of the best in the country, no way Aumont has a bad hip and he doesnt see it.

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  70. In the trade analysis PP had Ramirez as his second ranked prospect, but he’s not even a choice on here (I would have gone for May anyway). Is there a reason for that?

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  72. Help a novice out here. Ifthe scoutingbook a joke or decent? They have Drabek as the #36 right handed pitching prospect and Amount #5. Seems out of wack with everything else I’ve read. They think Drabek is a few years away?

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  73. More Aumont (apologies if posted already)…

    – He has thrown a total of 51 innings (59 Ks) as a professional.
    – He turns 21 on Jan. 7

    – From MLB.com:
    http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/prospects/y2009/profile.jsp?t=p_top&pid=518418:

    “Statistically speaking: Throwing with a very strict pitch count, Aumont was nonethless very impressive through the first two months of his first full season, allowing just six earned runs and 23 hits over his first 36 innings (1.50 ERA). He also struck out 35 while walking 11, holding hitters to a measly .177 batting average.

    Scouting report: A sore elbow slowed him down in the second half, but it’s not a big cause for concern. He throws his fastball, which has hard sink and is tough to pick up, up to 95 mph, with room for more. The breaking ball (curve) has a chance to be plus pitch, but his changeup is his third pitch and needs to be improved. He has pretty good command, especially for his age, and uses his size well for mound presence.

    Upside potential: Top-of-the-rotation ace.

    They said it: “He’s a potential workhorse with well above-average stuff. He has the ability to develop into a top-of-the-rotation type pitcher.” — Pedro Grifol, Mariners Director of Minor League operations

    He said it: “Growing up, I was not the best player. There were way better players than me. People kept telling me, ‘You have a chance, you just have to work.’ So I kept working and working.”

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  74. Gillies. I like his approach at the plate, his hustle and how much he has already overcome to get to this point. I’m really rooting for him, and I think he will help this club in the future.

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  75. I re-worked my top 10. My love for Ramirez hasn’t diminished, but I realize that I’m probably being optimistic on him, hence I’ve downgraded him since that post. FWIW, when my top 30 comes out, Ramirez will be #11.

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  76. Boo! Go with your gut!

    Right or wrong, I’ve honestly still got him above May. I love the total package May has, but I’m in “show me” mode after he only pitched 77.1 innings, and walked 43 over that span. Ramirez was a tick more successful in his spin in Low-A as a 19-year old, and as you pointed out, the stuff is pretty good, so I think it’s defensible. Odds are fairly decent that mine looks like an absurd ranking this time next year, but fingers crossed both Ramirez and May break out in a big way.

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  77. Here’s a pronunciation guide: (many sportscasters and others may not bother to get it exactly right).
    duh ARE no
    gil LEASE
    oh MOAN

    The degenerative hip condition thing, I believe I saw the source of it, somebody on the internet, trying to run a scouting service for the Mariners or something, came out with this in a defenitive statement, and they shortly thereafter came out with a statement that maybe they spoke too soon. It may be that sites like that want to deride 1sr round picks and like that, to show their belief that they know more than the people who run the team.

    And where is the facts of constant pain from repetitive motion? In the interview it was said there was no bothering from the hip the entire last season. It was a problem from younger days with soreness. And the elbow soreness, was a shutdown due to the fact he was engaged in the profession of regular throwing of a baseball, and was idled to avoid further possibilities of complication. The same thing was done with numerous Phillies prospects the past season and seasons past. I would say most had no further problems.

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  78. I’m a huge Trevor May fan, but I put Gillies 2nd. The more see, the more I look at the numbers, the more likely I think it is that Gillies is going to be one hell of a centerfielder for us in about 2 years. May could be a 1 or 2 in the majors, but he’s still taking baby steps. Of course, all of that could change in 4 months into the season.

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  79. Actually, Marfis, if you’re going to do a transliteration of the names, I think it’s more like this

    dar-No
    GIL-lees
    OH-mahn

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  80. Someone asked why Sellers is not considered a prospect. I didn’t see anyone answer him so I’ll say why I don’t think Sellers is a prospect. Personally, I put my cutoff for prospect status at age 25. I’ll take a look at 26 year olds but only when I’m looking at the last spots in my top 30. Sellers will be 28 in April. He’s pretty much fully formed. He’s never played above AA. He’s, at best, a AAAA type guy who could get a few ABs in the bigs. I’ve seen him play a couple of times and he’s got a bat and eats up AA pitching. He’s a steady, stationary 3rd baseman. Which means, he doesn’t have a great deal of range. He took care of everything hit to him and his throws were fine.

    His glove is similar to Dobbs at 3B. Limited Range though. If he gets some ABs at AAA and continues to hit then he’ll be a Mike Cervanek type. As far as I know, he’s only played 2B and 3B. If he was 24 and hitting like he has in AA, I might throw him a flyer in the high 20s of my top 30. At 27, there isn’t much potential. There only a few Coste’s around.

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  81. The Mlb guys love the Seattle GM. Now i see why after he riped Amaro off he got rid of Silva. Gillies is the only for sure
    of the three but are we giving up on our own (4 or 5 or 10)
    CF prospects? Don’t get me wrong I agree with Catch, a nice
    nice player. But there are so many short and long range holes.
    So I voted for Santana for his future promise which may be needed to pull this team out of a hole. Is 2011 impossible or just improbable?

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  82. aksmith: great comment, very realistic appraisal.

    Be aware that one of the Phils scouts, immediately following the trade, said something to the effect that Phils will have to address this problem. I forget the wording, but I immediately thought of surgery, which, while having greater risks than the other options you mentioned, also has a greater chance of eliminating the problem.

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  83. Thanks Bellman
    I was wondering about Sellers and the next two years since little is on the horizon except a FA who has hardly played third.

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  84. My research show the next top prospect to be Phillippe Aumont. At least 2 websites, scout.com and scoutingbook.com have him as the Phillies #1 prospect overall (ahead of Brown even, which I disagree with). Perhaps it is because he was a former #11 overall pick in a recent draft! I like him for his fastball and K/BB rate. I downgrade him for his injury concern, but obviously the Phillies checked him out and like him. I believe the Phillies considered him top prospect in the Lee deal, ranking right up there with Carrasco and Drabek as the new #1 pitching prospect.

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  85. It seems like every week someone asks about Sellers. Someone posts a comment explaining why and it continues like nothing happened. Bellman said his cutoff is 25. I’ll make an exception for either a relief prospect (like the Cards’ Jason Motte last year) or an international free agent. But Sellers’ projected MLB line for 2010 is south of a .700 OPS, and he has no development time left. As far as minor leaguers in our system, Cody Ransom is a better player. Non prospect.

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  86. These guys from Seattle could be huge busts or hit their ceilings and be better prospects than we gave up for Doc, we won’t know for a few years. I trust the Phils development staff to do a good job and hopefully in three years Gillies will be leading off playing center, Aumont will be a 3 or a monster closer and Ramirez will be a great 4 be Doc, Cole and Aumont. You never know, especially with these 3 because of the ridiculous park they played in last year. Let’s see how they do in Reading and then get excited or pissed.

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  88. Alan is right – every couple of days, someone writes an impassioned plea on behalf of Sellers and asks, aloud, why he is not a prospect and then we get two or three very good posts explaining why he is not on the “true prospect” radar screen, although we all admit that he could surprise us. Why don’t we just block copy those old posts and put them up.

    For me, Sellers is just one of those guys you keep your eyes on. Every year, there are one or two guys who make the majors as an older prospect and turn out to be very good players. Maybe Sellers is that guy.

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  89. Ken: just an opinion, but I wouldn’t put a ton of stock into those sites. The Scout rankings are from before the year, and don’t list any of the Phillies prospects (not even Brown). And I can’t possibly trust Scouting Book when they list Carlos Santana (#39) behind Austin Jackson (#18) and Lars Anderson (#26… I mean, wow).

    Better resources: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law on ESPN; and for non-pay sites, I highly recommend John Sickels’ minorleagueball.com/

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  91. Pat Burrell Says:

    “You never know, especially with these 3 because of the ridiculous park they played in last year. Let’s see how they do in Reading and then get excited or pissed.”

    Absolutely. We just won’t know much until we see them in the Phillies organization, the different leagues, and more innings. We’ll know much better next August how badly we got fleeced for Cliff Lee, or if Amaro got back some pretty good prospects.

    For me, I just think that regardless the 2010 draft is huge for the Phillies and the farm system.

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  92. Does anyone find it odd that Law called Drabek no more than a #3 before the trade but was going on and on about him being a top-of-the-rotation guy afterwards?

    I normally don’t buy into the KLaw hates Philly crowd since he’s been good enough to do several interviews with James and he calls it how he sees it. However, I’d love to know what changed his mind in Kyle. Did he see more progression between his last updates (at the deadline) and now? What were his previous concerns and why is he rating him higher now?

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  93. From what I read, his comment in the summer was that Drabek was overrated, and he said that because people were calling him a #1 starter prospect. He thinks hes more a #2 or #3. But it is kind of curious how he changed course on the Phillies prospects once they were traded. Maybe he got updated reports on the guys from old friends in Toronto

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  94. 2010 draft and international free agent signing is huge. What is also huge (and, of course, directly affects when and where the team will pick up talent), is how well the team identifies undervalued major leaguers to acquire. In the last several years, the team has improved as much or more through select, low-key major league acquisitions (Werth, Romero, Dobbs, Durbin) than it has through the promotion of minor leaguers. I understand that this is entirely a site dedicated to the minor leagues, but everything the club does is interrelated. Context is everything.

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  95. Okay, I have spent days on multiple sites viewing multiple blogs, watching multiple videos on the recently acquired players. Like most, I would have loved to play out the string for Lee and get the two FA’s at the end of the year if we couldn’t sign him long term. However, after so much deliberation, I am prepared to say the following:
    – Would have traded Werth for prospects, elevated Taylor into RF and attempted to sign Lee longterm, changing philosophy a bit and win with pitching.
    – That said we are left with Aumont, Gillies and Ramirez. I like what I read on the first two and the ability of the third. With Aumont, I believe that suggestions of his having a hip problem would have been a RED FLAG that the Phillies would not have pulled the plug on if it were a problem. Other than rumor and gossip, there is no other definitive confirmation of this. Second, he is not a one-pitch pitcher. He throws an above-average fastball (sinker) and a nasty curve. Hamels has 2 pitches as well and doesn’t throw as hard. And he is working on a change and I would hope Halladay could help him develop a cutter, which would be a great compliment to his arsenal. Third, 6’7″ tells me you need to throw him into the rotation. The M’s wanted to get immediate satisfaction out of the pick and the quickest route to the BIGS is the BULLPEN. The Phillies do not have the same need to rush as the M’s did. For that reason, I move him up to # 2 on my list, with Brown naturally being first. I will say Santana is extremely intriguing. A 17 year old that is already 6’5″, born athlete that has already showed great power is exciting. Will probably slow him down to Lakewood this year, but is it inconceivable if he lights it up, he can’t be elevated to Clearwater or Reading and becomes the replacement for Taylor in our system.

    Also, with Gillies, people complain that he played in a hitter’s league. Doesn’t that normally affect the power hitter moreso than the on base hitter. If that is true, other than the fact and only fact that he may have seen lower-level pitching than in other Lower A leagues, but if not, there should be no dramatic difference in his ability to hit for average or get on base with a signifcant number of walks. Taking that into consideration, and seeing his speed potential and the fact that he has room to grow into his body and may be able to develop a bit more power, he becomes an exciting 3 or 4 minor league selection with May, with the performance he put out last year, getting him a definite 3 spot. Ramirez is a strong arm with alot of potential that not alot of people have talked about.

    With the minor league system this organization has put together, who among us can sit on a soapbox and declare these guys are midling prospects. The Phils have former M execs in their front office who know and have seen these guys play and I would think that these are the guys they wanted. Certainly I would have loved to get Morrow and/or the infielder currently ranked number one in their system, but he is also a young player that has been tapped number one simply due to what he projects rather than on existing performance. This is not the 1990 or early 2000 minor league system and I do think they know what they are talking about.

    The Phils still have a strong number of great athletic talent, some of which falls into a high risk/high reward category. If only a few of these hit, they could be stars. Since most minor leagues never make it, the Phils do not need a lot of these players to hit for them to maintain their stature around baseball as a top flight organization.

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  97. I voted for Santana based reports of his monster upside and his age. (Insert predictable joke about Dominican ages here.) Really, I feel like judging from the comments here we’re all pretty much groping in the dark at the moment. It’ll be very interesting to go back and look at these threads next May or September. I have a feeling that assessments are going to shift a lot. I’m excited to go down to spring training this year: the big question last year was whether Jason Donald had enough arm to play 3B and catch on as a backup infielder. This year I feel like there’s going to be a pretty wide open fight for a couple of important bullpen jobs that guys like Mathieson and Bastardo have a shot at, and it’s going to be really interesting to get a look at guys like Aumont, Gilles, Gose and Brown (the latter two I’ve never seen in person, despite having read about them all the time for months).

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  98. PhillyFriar Says:
    December 18, 2009 at 2:00 PM
    …Valle is probably the closest thing to a sure thing- there is no doubt in my mind that he will be able to help a major league ballclub…

    Original Chuck, what leads you to this conclusion?

    Well, he already has solid tools as a fielder… we’ve all been schooled to the reality that catchers need to be good defenders above all else and I think that Valle is on his way to being a very good defensive catcher. That’s really what I’m basing it off… he probably improved the most out of any prospect in our system this year.

    Thanks for all the comments on Sellers… I haven’t seen or heard enough to conclude anything so I’ll believe what everyone says (he’s just not good enough). He does put up good numbers… can’t argue with that.

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  99. Going back to aumonts injury, unless someone can show me an mri, xray, ct scan showing a degenerative hip condition that will preclude him from being a starter then i will believe it. i think the teams dr would have seen something wrong and nixed aumont in the deal. i’m a pharmacist and i had a ruptured bicep repaired 7 yrs ago that feels just fine i find it hard to believe that there isn’t a combo or surgery, pills, and re-hap that will correct any injury he may have. just look no further then scott mathieson who is an extreme case by the way. once aumont is healthy i hope his talent can show us why the phils wanted him….then again even when he is healthy he may flame out like 99% of prospects do. its all a crap shoot with these guys

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  100. O Chuck P: Where did you come by the info about Valle’s defense? The reports I have heard are that his defense is raw and he might not ever be a catcher, more like a utility guy or maybe a 3B/1B or LF. That would diminish his value a lot. Would love to hear a credible report that his D moved significantly forward last season.

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  101. Baseball America’s scouting report last season didn’t have significant problems last offseason. Is that credible enough?

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  102. The comments on Valle are very overly optimistic. You can’t just forget that he couldn’t hit a lick at Lakewood last year and only hit when he went to W-port. I think he has a chance to be a good player but he’s far away and plays a very difficult position that he must get much better at. The most unfortunate thing to me about our system is we’re back to having zero position prospects at AAA and that’s a bummer to me.

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  103. Voted for Aumont, but the more I study and watch video… I think I made a mistake. It’s Tyson Gillies easy.
    Age, performance, level. It’s really obvious that he is #2.

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  105. There is a problem here. Lets hope Aumont is fine but the
    Phils honesty and/or capability to detect injury is in question.
    e.g. Lidge, and Utley. Truth and the Phillies have never been partners. As far back as Ritchie Allen who took the blame in the Frank Thomas affair and it hasn’t changed to date.
    Gillies will be my next pick after Santana.

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  106. nowwheels its a different medical team now ciccotti is world renoun doctor. not marone who was a older doctor when mistakes were made.

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  107. Ironically, Ciccotti is accepting new patients if anyone needs a good Orthopedic Surgeon…if he can fit you in between all the Phillies and St. Joes players he takes care of…Hell, if I lived in the Philly area, I’d try to use him…his professional ratings are very impressive.

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