Reader Top 30; #1

2010 Reader Top 30

As I mentioned in the Halladay analysis, we have to re-start the voting since we just lost 3 of our 4 best prospects and also added 3 more prospects in the deal. So, you know the drill. Vote for 1 prospect per day, highest vote total moves on, and we go till we get to #30. Check below the fold for the first vote…

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35 thoughts on “Reader Top 30; #1”

  1. I would’ve had Brown at #3 before the trade, but now I think there’s really no argument about who the top prospect is. The interesting discussion will start with #2, I’ll have to look at Gillies and Aumont more closely to decide if I’d put them ahead of May for that spot.

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  3. I had Brown at #2 prior to the trade, between Taylor (#1) and Drabek. Voting for #2 will be a circus. I can realistically see voting for any of about 10 players–all three Seattle guys, May, Santana, Valle, Galvis (for those inclined to ((over) value defense), Schwimer (based on blog loyalty), Mayberry (based on proximity to the show), Cosart or even Colvin, Villar, or Singleton (on ceiling).

    Lots of guys who are a long way away.

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  6. (Almost) no one is even being contrarian. Wow.

    You’re right, phillychuck, the vote for #2 will be a circus. I know who I’m voting for, but I have a hunch as to who I think is going to win. Should certainly be interesting!

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  7. phillychuck:
    #2 will be interesting, but i
    I’m confident that Mayberry and Galvis won’t be anywhere near the #2 spot and don’t forget about Santana as an early selection.

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  8. Brown as the obvious choice for #1. After that, things get interesting. Look at the following list (in no particular order):

    C: Valle
    1B: Singleton
    2B/SS/3B: Okay, not our strong point
    OF: Santana, Gillies, Gose, James (best athlete/faster than Gose)
    P: Aumont, Ramirez, Colvin, Cosart, May, Bastardo

    That’s 12 guys who I can see at least some argument being made for top 5, most of whom some argument could be made for #2. Should be fun. I wonder how many prospects will be in the poll…

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  9. I voted for Brown, but I realize that my vote (and probably most people’s vote) is all based on projection. He hit .229 in the Arizona Fall League, with a home run rate of about one per 60 at bats. In AA, he hit a home run every 49 at bats and batted .279. I had Taylor ahead of him before the trade. Hopefully, he can live up to the expectations because we don’t have a whole lot of power hitting in our minor league system at the moment.

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  10. I had Brown at #1 in the old poll, so this isn’t a tough call. But yeah, I have no idea how I’ll go from here, much less what the group consensus will be.

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  12. On natural talent and performance to date I went with the obvious choice-Domonic Brown. Truly an untouchable now!

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  14. Yeah, Brown at #1 is easy. I really have to go back and figure out the rest. The Seattle prospects are incredibly difficult to slot because High Desert and Clearwater might as well be on different planets.

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  15. One name that doesn’t get mentioned is Joe Savery. I think as it stands right now, he is top 5 as far as performance to date. Obviously, with projections, their are some other guys that might have higher ceilings. But based off how he pitched last year he is in my top 10.

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  16. Savery’s barely a prospect, IMO. His strikeout rate is pedestrian, his walk rate is too high, and his ERAs were higher than their respective league averages. 16-6 is an impressive looking record, but there is little predictive value in that.

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  17. Phillysmith- I couldn’t disagree with you more. Other than wins, Savery was a major disappointment last year. I like the guy, I’m routing for him, but he’ll need a big year next year to get anywhere near the Top 10.

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  19. As far as starters who can fill the need at the back end of the rotation this year (which as of today, we still need). Savery should be in the mix just as much as Kendrick, Moyer. You canlook at numbers all you want, 16 wins say the guy is a gamer.

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  21. Last time I checked that’s how the Phillies won back to back pennants. The guy is good enough to be drafted in the first round, goes out and wins 16 games and is now “barley a prospect”. Maybe they should have traded him to Toronto as well, we could have got a new parking attendant in return.

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  23. If we could have gotten a new parking attendent we should have done it.

    I’m only kidding, but Savery has fallen quite a bit since he was drafted in the first round. I saw him pitch quite a bit in Reading and LHV and he really struggled with his command. He seems like a really good kid…one of my favorites actually, but if he struggles again this year they are likely to him at first base or his dream of being a major leaguer may be coming to an end. No doubt he is still a legitimate prospect but he had a lot to prove before he gets back I’m the top 5-10.

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  24. Yikes. If Joe Savery starts a game for the Phillies this year, they are in deep trouble. The ratios, the process, are far more important than the wins. So what if he won 16 games?

    His combined line as a 23-year old across AA/AAA:

    5.71 K/9, 4.58 BB/9, 1.25 K/BB, .77 HR/9

    In a vacuum, if you saw those peripherals attached to the name “Player X,” would you think that player had a serious major-league future? Savery is a replacement-level major-league pitcher at best, and the Phillies are better than that. He either ought to go to the bullpen, or pick up the stick.

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  25. My point here is that with Drabek gone, the outlook on pitchers in the upper half of the system has changed. All the top prospects are just that, unproven. Not saying Savery is by any means, but all it will take is a few good months, and he could be the next great prospect in the system. After this week, everybody better be rooting him.

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  26. It’s hard to do this vote without M. Taylor on the list. I’m really going to miss the big guy.

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  27. Sure, I’m rooting for him, but there’s a ton of data on the guy now, and it all points to him being little, if nothing, more than a replacement-level major league starter. I root for him just like I do any Phillie, I just wouldn’t expect good things if he has to start a major-league game.

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  28. Fact at this point is that replacement-level is all we are going to have this year. Another thing getting over looked here is that we have no infield prospect, we traded a cy young winner, and still have no infield prospects.

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  29. Catch22 – I’m with you. As I mentioned in a previous post, I go to quite a few Reading and LHV games and Taylor is my favorite. Great guy. Always took the time to sign autographs for the kids. As good of a ballplayer as he is, he seams to be an even better person. I was looking forward to seeing him in a Phillies uniform. He will be missed….

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  33. Honestly, I miss Drabek, but I think Trevor May is going to knock our socks off and there are more arms to come. Again, the question is whether these young pitchers are just going to be showcased for a trade. When I mentioned this before, someone said “isn’t that the point of a minor league system?” My response is, yeah, that’s one purpose of the system, but the main purpose is to develop talent for your own team. In the last few years, with the exception of Brown we have traded ALL of our top prospects. All of them. Think about it – Carrasco, Drabek, Taylor, Marson, Cardenas, Knapp, Donald . . . and the list goes on. For a team that, at some level is trying to contain costs and keep talent flowing for a long period of years, it’s a bit of a risky and expensive habit. Our last really great prospect to be promoted was Cole Hamels. That was 4 years ago. Clearly, this cannot continue if the team wants to contend in another 2 or 3 years. They’ve got to start promoting young talent.

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  34. Catch – That’s exactly the team’s reasoning for making the Lee trade. We can believe them about money or not, agree with the decision and the prospects they obtained for Lee or not, but it does make some sense.

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  35. Happ came in Top5 for rookie of the year. That’s better performance than Mr. Hamels first season.

    I will agree that I do not expect him to pitch better than Hamels of 2008 but his Major League resume to date is quite good.

    Of the prospects gone, I think I miss Donald the most. He has a chance to be a cost effective replacement level or better infielder. He has a great attitude and I wish the Phillies had him instead of Castro! Charlie might have actually rested Rollins or Utley to get Donald some ABs over the next 6 years. Castro will not and should not play.

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