Lehigh Valley is 2-5 after the first full week of International League play, 5.5 games behind division leading and undefeated Scranton. The only current ‘Pig among the league batting leaders is Rich Thompson who is fifth in hits with 12. In the pitching categories, Carlos Carrasco is tied for the league lead with 12 innings pitched, while Kyle Kendrick is 7th in the league with 11 innings pitched. Justin Lehr is 7th in WHIP at 0.63. Carrasco also ranks 7th in the league with 10 strikeouts.
Week in Review–
The mastery by the Scranton Wilkes Barre Yankees continued over the Iron Pigs Friday night in a 2-1 extra inning loss, ruining an outstanding outing by Carlos Carrasco who went six shut out innings. The loss came on a Shelly Duncan RBI single off of Mike Koplove (0-1) in the 11th. Jason Donald, Mike Cervenak and Andy Tracy all had 2 hits for the ‘Pigs. Saturday night included yet another drubbing by Scranton, this time 12-5 over the ‘Pigs. Drew Carpenter started and gave up 5 runs in 5 innings and left with the game tied 5-5. The bullpen however, allowed the game to be blown wide open yet again with Dave Borkowski (0-2), taking the loss. Paul Hoover and Rich Thompson each had 3 hits for the ‘Pigs, while Pablo Ozuna added two. Not much need for detail in Sundays’ 14-4 shellacking once again at the hands of the Yanks, completing their four game sweep. Rodrigo Lopez started and was very average, the bullpen was absolutely awful yet again, and the only real offense came from Mike Cervenak and Jorge Velandia who both homered. Jason Donald added two hits.
A separate post was done about Monday’s 5-1 win against Syracuse, so onward to Wednesday’s game after the rainout Tuesday evening. Behind a solid effort from Kyle Kendrick (1-0), the ‘Pigs picked up their second consecutive win on Wednesday night. Kendrick pitched 7 strong innings, allowing 2 runs on 7 hits. He walked one and struck out four, throwing 100 pitches, 68 for strikes. The ‘Pigs had three big innings, scoring three in the third and fourth and four in the eighth in the 11-4 win. Rich Thompson continued very hot going 3-5 with 2 runs and an RBI, Jason Donald was 2-3 (jncluding a double and a triple), 3 runs and an RBI, Pablo Ozuna was 2-5 with 3 EBI’s and both JJ Furmaniak and John Mayberry hit their first homers of the year, pacing the ‘Pigs offense. Syracuse came back to take the final game of the three game series with a 5-4 extra inning win Thursday night over the ‘Pigs. Carlos Carrasco started and pitched well going 6 innings and giving up four runs (2 earned) on 7 hits. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out six, throwing 90 pitches, 64 for strikes. A costly error by Mike Cervenak cost the ‘Pigs two early runs, with Syracuse adding another in the fourth. Lehigh Valley came back to tie the game on a three run homer by John Mayberry, his second in as many nights, as his bat has awoken. Syracuse added another run in the fifth, taking another lead, this time 4-3. Lehigh Valley tied the game in the ninth on a clutch RBI single by JJ Furmaniak. Syracuse won the game in the 12th inning on a homer by Justin Maxwell off of Dave Borkowski (0-3)who has had a very rough beginning of the season.
Prospect Profiles–While there will be consistent updates on Donald and Carrasco, look for other names to rotate every couple of weeks. Feel free to offer any suggestions for content in this section that you would like to see.
Jason Donald–Playing exclusively at shortstop and without an error yet, Donald has been solid in the field while hitting .290 through his first 7 games with 4 of his 9 hits going for extra bases. Additionally, Donald is hitting .364 with runners on base. So far….just as expected.
Carlos Carrasco–Carrasco was exceptional in his first outing and followed that up with a decent outing in his second start. Batters are hitting under .200 against him early on, and most impressive is the fact that he has yet to walk a batter in his 12 innings pitched. He has struck out 10 in his 12 innings and has an ERA under 2.
John Mayberry–After a very difficult first series against Scranton, Mayberry has picked up the pace while being dropped in the order and is now hitting .231 with two homers in his first 26 at bats. Strikeouts continue to be problematic with nine right off the get go, many of which came against the Yankees.
Kyle Kendrick– Has now started two games and after a shaky first outing settled down to throw very nicely in his last start. He has given up only 2 runs in 11 innings pitched and has been working hard in his off day bullpen sessions.
‘Pigs notes– Lehigh Valley is now 3-18 all time against the Yankees.
–In his first 37.2 innings pitched at Coca Cola Park(over this year and last), Carrasco has allowed only two earned runs.
–Lehigh Valley is now 5-29 in April over the last 2 years.
–The line on Scott Nestor after two appearances….1 IP, 1H, 5ER, 9BB, 2K.
—John Mayberry Jr. was dropped to the 6th spot in the lineup on Monday and responded by getting on base all four plate appearances.
—Jeremy Slayden singled in his first AAA at bat to keep the ‘Pigs ninth inning rally alive on Thursday.
Transactions: Lou Marson was recalled by the Phils after Carlos Ruiz was placed on the DL with an oblique injury. Orlando Guevara, 24, takes Marson’s place on the ‘Pig roster. Guevara was recalled from extended Spring Training and saw limited time with Reading/Lehigh Valley last year.
–Pitcher John Ennis who was roughed up on opening night to the tune of 5 runs in 0.1 innings was placed on the disabled list and is expected to miss the reaminder of the season as he will undergo Tommy John surgery. Jason Anderson, 29, was recalled from Reading to take Ennis roster spot. Anderson pitched effectively for Lehigh Valley last year going 3-2 with a 3.89 ERA in 30 games.
–Outfielder Jeremy Slayden was activated from the disabled list on Thursday and should be an important weapon added to the ‘Pigs lineup.
–Pitcher Scott Nestor was placed on the disabled list with “turf toe” was was replaced on the roster with a familiar name, pitcher Steve Green who was very effective last year for the ‘Pigs. Green, 31, was 5-1 with a 3.09 ERA last season in 35 appearances with a very good 1.26 WHIP.
Phuture Phillies 
Nice report, Gregg. Are you able to get some more detail on Kendrick’s pitch selection. I think the key for him is not merely getting AAA hitters out, but using a minimum three pitch repertoire in any count while doing it.
LikeLike
MLL–
I will see what I can do, during his future starts.
LikeLike
I know this isn’t really the proper post, but I watched Savery pitch in Harrisburg last night and he battled it all evening. He never looked comfortable from the first inning and really struggled to locate his fastball. When he was locating the fastball and getting ahead in the count, he was making hitters look foolish with his offspeed stuff, but that didn’t happen nearly enough. He gave up a home run to lefty Marvin Lowrance that may or may not still be moving.
It was just a matter of consistency. He threw some great pitches, but was leaving way too much up in the zone. Honestly, for how erratic he was, his line could have been worse — he got outs on some hard-hit balls.
Other than that, nothing particularly interesting last night. The R-Phils were pretty sloppy all the way around. Pitching was ugly top to bottom, the defense was shaky, and Taylor grounded into a huge double play during their only real rally.
LikeLike
Shame Scott Nestor went on the DL. I was looking forward to him winning the Jason Neighborgall award.
Dave Borkowski has pitched three times in relief, and is 0-3. Outstanding.
LikeLike
would somebody tell me why in the hell donald is not playing 3rd? happ should be in the rotation and i hope the phillies are seriously considering bringing up carrasco now. good to see marson doing what he does best hes here for good.this team will need a shakeup if the rotation does not wake-up. i give the present starters 1 more start to shape-up,excluding hamels and myers. we cant wake up may 1st and out by ten!
LikeLike
@john from philly.ne: Calm down. We haven’t started well in either of the last two seasons and those worked out okay. Florida is not this good. They’ll pitch all year, but they’re not going to hit enough to win the N.L. East. No one else is running away from us.
The worst thing we can do is overreact and panic and I don’t think that will happen. If you mean why the hell isn’t Donald playing third at Lehigh Valley, he’s more valuable as a shortstop. If you mean why the hell isn’t he playing third in Philadelphia, you do realize that Pedro Feliz has a .820 ops right now, right? Is Donald really going to hit much better than that? And he would be a downgrade defensively.
LikeLike
John it takes some one going on the dl or falling completely on
their arshe til the Phils do something. It is maddening
Bastardi has to get ready to fill the Tasner role (they got a k and why the hell they brought him back with a rested pen I cant imagine)
Management has to get it in their minds they HAVE to upgrade.
BTW the 20 hrs are a major league record i believe. If Hamels
is terrible today does he go on the dl and CC get a shot???
To further your point John it is also unlike the florida starter will have a long losing streak
LikeLike
That is correct 20 HRS allowed in first 8 games is an MLB record…a proud day for Philadelphia baseball.
LikeLike
Why would you think florida is not for real. they can match us in the field, more power in there lineup and if johnson is healthy a true number one. They lack the bullpen, Our starters are not better, Brett has not been good except for half a year, Blanton era and hits allow are not good this year or last. moyer is 46 and park is a joke. unfortunealy Carrasco might have to be rush and try to win on his pure stuff, not pitching
LikeLike
This is the time if I am the phillies to go to san diego or toronto, and try to get Peavy . I would start with a package of Donald, Happ or Carrasco ,Marston and Galvis and go from there.
LikeLike
@mikemike You have to be joking. Florida’s lineup isn’t as good as Atlanta’s, New York’s or ours. Run some numbers. Hanley Ramirez is a stud, Cantu can hit, and Uggla has some pop. Beyond that it’s a mediocre lineup. Bonafacio has done nothing to this point to make his start look like anything other than a statistical outlier. They have five players that currently blowing projections completely out of the water. Check out these ops numbers:
Bonafacio 20009 .923 Career .682
Uggla 2009 1.045 Career .834
Hermida 2009 .929 Career .782
Baker 2009 .879 Career MINOR LEAGUE (7 Season) .773
Cantu 2009 1.099 Career .782
We won the World Series less than six months ago. We are 4-4 and there is NO WAY Florida hits enough to win the N.L. East. I don’t understand how you people can panic after eight games. Eight games! Do you think the Red Sox are going to be terrible all year because they had a bad first eight.
There is no way they should trade the farm for Peavy (declining) or Halladay (free agent).
LikeLike
Lol. Guess it just isn’t possible to have one of these weekly reports without it falling into a pissing session over the parent club.
As for the Pigs, I still think they have a chance to be pretty good this season. They have several good prospects already and may have 1 or 2 more showing up before the season is over…
LikeLike
jak440 Says:
April 17, 2009 at 9:58 am
@mikemike You have to be joking. Florida’s lineup isn’t as good as Atlanta’s, New York’s or our
you are completely ignoring starting pitching, Johnson maybe the best in league, Volstad etc plus many on the farm
I dont agree with Mike about trades but to stand still is nuts
u forget we won by a thread. I cant see Donald in the minors. or Carrasco soon,
I would trade Blanton for a star prospect at best he is limited and so-so is out the door this year and more next year snooze and lose
LikeLike
doesn’t the fact that Donald is getting zero time at 3rd mean that he will never play for the phils?
LikeLike
That’s a tough break for Ennis. He was no prospect, obviously, and his chances of much more MLB service time were probably pretty long anyway. But TJ at his age and level probably means it’s time to think about another line of work.
Never fun to see your dream fade.
LikeLike
@3up3kkk Sorry… I know how irritating that is. I just can’t stand the Chicken Little’s that are convinced the sky is falling after eight games. I thought winning the World Series might change the mentality a little bit. I guess it didn’t.
Anyone know what Carrasco’s velocity has been like?
LikeLike
You guys need to chill, we already have almost as many wins as we had last April. And Nowheels you need to get over So Taguchi- he was here for one year, got payed practically nothing and hardly even saw the field.
And for Carrasco’s velocity, I believe I read something to the tune of 92-93 after his first start, but I may be mistaken.
LikeLike
as for the sky is falling if any of you think this rotation is close to mlb quality im sorry.this is not the same as usual phillies sluggest starts, this rotation has not been unlucky theve been bad. as far as donald if he were traded what glowing prospect do we have in the inf. forget the guys who are three years and unknowns. donald is our long term 3rd baseman unless someone knows of an upcoming free agent because feliz will be gone next year.
LikeLike
no one meanted Taguchi Please read more careful
LikeLike
read soso pitcher are not going to cut it this year The Marlins and Braves arent giving up runs in bunches maybe not even the Mets do you think the others are going to pussyfoot
around and not use their prospects
LikeLike
I’m not particularly worried about the ML pitching staff – they’ll sort things out as there’s too much talent and experience for everything to go down the drain.
As for Carrasco, I’m just not as high on him as everyone else appears to be. I think, down the line, he might be a decent middle-of-the rotation starter. The same type of okay right-handed pitchers the Phils have been handing us for years, perhaps a bit better, but not much.
My view (and I’ve said it on this site before) is that, as an organization, the Phils should be focused on true right-handed power pitchers. Guys who throw-94-97; think Jason Johnson, Justin Verlander, A.J. Burnett. Very few right-handed pitchers go on to have outstanding careers if they don’t throw very hard. Just think about the best right-handed pitchers of the last 30 or 40 years – aside from Greg Maddux and some knuckleball pitchers, how many of them had only average or even “good” velocity? Now, think about the rest of the great righty pitchers – they almost all threw very hard; here’s a partial list: Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Curt Schilling, David Cone, Roger Clemens, Jake Peavy, Juan Marichal, Don Drysdale, Nolan Ryan, Dave Stewart, Kevin Brown, John Smoltz and there are so many more. And not only are they generally more effective, their careers generally end up being much longer than the guys who only have average to goo stuff.
Hopefully, with Drabek and some of the other young talent, we are going to see some right-handed pitchers who can really bring it. Although he seems to be a perfectly fine option as 3rd or 4th starter, at least right now, Carrasco does not fit that profile, so I am tempering my enthusiasm.
LikeLike
MkeMike, I wouldn’t worry until we are around 20 and 20 and 5 or more games out. I think we have the best lineup in the east and a staff comparable to the best. Our BP is equal to mets especially when jc returns. I wouldn’t trade that much for peavey just yet(starting there), I’m asumming that means you would give away more but not certain. The sox were interested in marson but phils wanted buckholtz. Sox said no! The way marson is hitting if we could throw in their choice of galvis, Rizzotti, savery, naylor, stutes, or worley. they might do it especially if after 40 games or so tek is stinking up the place. If it weren’t for d’arnaud and valle in the wings and ruiz being”fine” I probably wouldn’t do this trade. I love trade proposals and always interested to see if people think i’m giving away the farm or being a homer and overvaluing our players
LikeLike
The plus, plus velocity is also why I’m so excited about Jason Knapp. He is exactly the type of player I’m looking for the team to draft. To their credit, it seems that they did quite a nice job in last year’s draft. Even Mike Stutes is said to get the ball up around the mid-90s. It’s encouraging.
LikeLike
unfortunately catch, guys like that don’t grow on trees, you either have to hope to draft one or pay big bucks as a FA. Teams usually hang on to those guys unless their demands are larger than the team budget. We know that the phils won’t go out and compete w/ yanks etc. for that guy. We have our ace in place and I think our #2 is about a year away(Drabek),and 2 years from being a #2. all we need is for carrasco to be is a 3 ie. 13-15W with an era under 4. Happ will be an excellent 5. Blanton is a real good 4.
LikeLike
That’s why I am not excited about Joe Savery. Last night when he got behind in the count and had to come in with that 89-90 fast ball of his, he was hit hard. Especially when everything was up in the zone. Was more fascinated by his stroke. Against a lefty he almost drove a ball through the hole between short and third the first time up. The second time up he was just a little late on a fast ball and skied out down the left field line. But he has a beautiful swing from the left side.
LikeLike
Thanks for the responses, guys.
Marky, you are right that, once obtained, those hard throwers are hard to get, but not as hard as you might think. Pitchers like that are acquired all the time in trade deadline deals. Also, a lot of it has to do with the type of pitcher a team is trying to draft. For two many years, the Phils always drafted guys with low 90s fastballs and the infamous 12-6 curveball. That was their prototype. It’s not as good as the young, slightly wild guy who throws 96. I’ll take that guy any day over the player who throws 90 with a good curveball. It’s not a close call for me (although, I suppose, you do need to fill out your system with some guys who have that kind of stuff).
Rickey – notice that I was talking about right-handed pitchers. Lefties are harder to peg. You don’t have to throw 95 MPH all day to be a really super lefty (See Cole Hamels), so the fact that Savery is trying to throw in the 88-92 range doesn’t concern me nearly as much.
LikeLike
obviously, I mean “too” many years, not “two” many years.
LikeLike
If you guys wanna keep the stars intact best to temper an trade talk for big money guys
LikeLike
Doesn’t Julian Sampson throw hard too?
LikeLike
BTW-Carrasco’s fastball velocity last night was 91-93 for the most part. He threw a couple that were 94, and a couple that were 95, but all four were out of the strike zone.
LikeLike
Carrasco’s best pitch last night was his changeup. A couple of his curveballs bounced in the dirt and got away from the catcher, which were wild pitches. He kept getting his curve ball up which hurt him. Also, he didn’t have real good command of his fastball last night.
LikeLike
If everyone wants a fair idea of what that extra 3-4 MPH can do to a pitcher, just check out Ryan Madson. Traditionally, he was in the 90-93 range and he was a nice middle reliever. Above average, but nothing special. Suddenly, last year, the velocity on his fastball went into the 94-97 MPH range and, almost overnight, he became a dominant pitcher. That extra velocity allowed him to pitch up in the strike zone and made his change-up that much more devastating.
LikeLike
catch – no one is going to fight you that all else equal, it is better to throw hard than soft. but to suggest that you have to sit 94-97 to be a great righthanded pitcher is silly and not based on data. very few starting pitchers sit between 94-97. guys like brandon webb, Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Lackey, Chris Young have all been top pitchers over the past two years and don’t throw 94+. And one of my favorite phillies curt schilling didn’t throw 94+. there are more too, i just don’t have the time to do the research. you guys can: you can check out the velocity stats here (thanks to James and Jackie for this link).
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/index.php
also, Jason Johnson has a career era of 4.99. so i wouldn’t use him to prove a point about good pitchers.
LikeLike
JOSH Johnson has a Major league era of 3.38 that includes 2007 when he was hurt after the marlins brought him back after a 90 minute rain delay. He tried to rehab all of 2007 before having tommy John. Take a second and look at his game log since he came back I think it is 18 games one loss and only 3 team losses just like Santana who he outpitched last outing
Btw our old friend Outman starts tonight
LikeLike
just want to put in one thing about one of the first posts; did MikeMike really say that the marlins can match us in the feild? they have terrible infield defense, and with the exception of maybin, they have an average outfield. cantu is a decent first base, uggla is a terrible fielding 2B, and Hanley isn’t as good as peaople think.
LikeLike
clay buclholtz is 5-10 in mlb career with an era of 5.5 and a whip of 1.80. guys always get a big bounce from a no hitter, you can have him ill take marson. jos savery will never pitch in mlb for the phillies. hes simply not that good . sorry
LikeLike
Wow, john. You would not trade Marson for Buchholz straight up? This is Clay Buchholz, he of the career minor league ERA of 2.43 with a 1.008 WHIP, 2.85 FIP, and 10.9 SO/9. In addition to the gaudy numbers, he has the scouting community backing him up at every turn. I am sorry if this sounds harsh, but I am not sure an intelligent argument could be made to support your beliefs. I would love to hear you try, however.
LikeLike
Clay is 24 and a potential Ace. he may never become that but it’s a high risk high reward situation we would have to take. I love Jason Donald but I’m a little nervous about him not being succesful at te ML level. He doesn’t, as neduolcaz referred to above about buckholtz, have the scouting community backing him and they certainly know more than I. They are wrong many times but more often right on about players. The Angels are looking to move one of their 3dbasemen either figgins or wood who is tearing up AAA and have dirt at ss. I would love to do Marson, Stutes for buckholtz and Donald, Savery, for Brandon Wood. I know these kind of trades rarely happen but it’s still fun to think about.
LikeLike
[deleted]
Also lol @ someone complaining about the rotation, this is the same exact rotation that took us to and won us a WORLD SERIES!
LikeLike
I just want to clarify that I was not trying to insult anyone’s intelligence. John’s belief that the Phillies should not trade Marson for Buchholz is an opinion. I was merely saying that I do not think an intelligent argument could be formed to support that opinion. However, the great thing about opinions, especially in regards to sports, is that they do not all have to be rational. Maybe, John, for some particular reason is simply in love with Marson, and that is OK. I was just saying that rationally, which is how the Phillies are hopefully approaching these situations, there is no explanation to why the Phils would prefer Marson over Buchholz.
LikeLike
nedoul as i posted above check his buckholtz that is, mlb stats not good at all. i have seen him pitch and am not as overwhelmed as some. i tend to believe my own eyes more than anything else, which is one reason in 1981 i got into a near brawl with paul owens bodygaurd deron johnson when i told him trading julio franco would be a huge mistake.imho ive been right far more often than ive been wrong about players. marson imo will be a better long term investment than buckholtz,having seen them both. in my opinion there are 4 major league players,above a ball,in our system. donald, marson, carrasco, and drabek. all the majority of the rest will never see the light of day or are too far away, taylor and brown. knapp sounds very promising. buckholtz in my opinion is very overated and his mlb stats seem to confirm that. but i certainly am not infallible.
LikeLike
what i said is the competion is better this year
The Mets got relievers, Atlanta got Lowe and others, Johnson and Volts were not with the Marlins til midseason. Can u refute that !!!! No more gift horses= the same is not good enough
[deleted]
LikeLike
Buchholz has started 18 games for the Red Sox over the past two seasons. Here is the breakdown via ER:
0 ER – 2 (including a no-hitter in 2007)
1 ER – 3
2 ER – 1
3 ER – 3
4 ER – 3
5 ER – 4
6 ER – 0
7 ER – 2
So, by my count, Buchholz has pitched very well in 50% of the first 18 games of his career. I know the total ERA is not pretty, John, but his performance has not been dreadful. In fact, it can be expected for a prospect who is experiencing MLB for the first time. Hamels, pitching in the rather dreadful 2006 NL, racked up 12 starts of 3 ER or less in his first 18 career games. His era over that span was 4.50. When considering the league differences and small sample size, I do not really see a difference between the two. The first 18 games of Hamels’ career did not define the pitcher he was to become, nor will they for Buchholz.
LikeLike
There’s no room for personal insults here. You can make your points without them. Let’s carry on the conversation in a constructive manner, yes?
LikeLike
thank you
LikeLike
I really believe Drabek is a number 1 he has it all, expect the innings to show more consistenancy. I love to see him be in triplea by the end of this year.
LikeLike
Never meant Florida has a great infield defense, but they can score and have power, and better starters overall then us . Any one doubt when healthy johnson isn’t a stud? The thing is I believe they will be there in contention all year, that was my point. maybe I expressed wrong. but that’s what I meant. Any do you believe as much as I love rollins that any team right now wouldn’t take Hanley over him,?
LikeLike
I followed the Marlin in ’06 I believe Johnson was headed to the HOF . How could they be so stupid as to bring a 22 year old back after that long a rain delay in a nothing game ,in a nothing years.(venting)
Drabek’s surgery was probably unavoidable and he was younger and hopefully will not impede him at all
I find it interesting that our young starters dont see to blow up when faced with lax defensive play behind them
LikeLike
I’ve followed Buchholz from the day the Sox drafted him. What he lacks is mental toughness most of all and movement on his fastball, which has very little, making it hitable. He actually commands his change and curce better than his fastball. An odd thing. I think he’ll be ok as he ages, but it will take awhile for him to sort things out.
LikeLike
as stated opinions are just that until proven one way or the other,im not saying buckholtz is a bad pitcher im saying he will not prove as valuable as marson. btw i believe carrasco is somewhat overated . the two players i have SEEN in this organization who i would bet my house on are donald and marson,with drabek a strong possibility. if you have 2 players who you believe will be strong contributors to your team any one time your doing good. if you knew how much intuition played in the evaluation of a player you would be shocked. i stand by my statement, just hope 2 years from now we have 2 players with the future of donald and marson.thats success to a scout.
LikeLike
See that Rodriquo Lopez has broken down already and had to miss this afternoon’s start. Wonder if Vance Worley or Kyle Drabek get the call to AAA? Probably Brummett but he will not last long.
LikeLike
I hope its Drabek. But they proabley think he might need more seasoning in double aa.
LikeLike
Going to see Mike Stutes tonight. Of the young arms Drabek, Worley, and Stutes have been most impressive below AAA. Savery was hit hard when I saw him pitch Thursday night.
LikeLike
Stutes is really impressive. I don’t think many thought when he was drafted he would progress so fast. That’s what makes the draft so hard to figure. He never would have been there to select if the scouts though he could do as well as he has done so fast. How many scouts thought he had this much upside?
LikeLike
there is no Marson-Bucholz deal for now Marson right now if more valuable I hope he plays tonight Coste is better when he catches twice a week beside it is Sweet Lou
LikeLike
I thought this was a site for Phillies minor league discussion?
LikeLike
marson is still a prospect no???
LikeLike
PP Fan – on the radar gun issue. I am not sure a long term study has ever been done on right handed pitchers and velocity. But, I am pretty sure that what I am saying about right handers and outstanding velocity, is correct. The very few righties who dominate without the extreme velocity are those that either have an outstanding “out” pitch or trick pitch(knuckleball, split finger fastball, or sometimes, a slider or screwball – think, Brad Lidge), or are just pure masters of deception, such as Daisuke or Greg Maddux. There are very, very few pitchers like that, however, and I don’t see one on the Phils’ staff.
What you said about Curt Schilling (not throwing 94+) is simply incorrect, with the possible exception of the last couple of years of his career. It’s funny that you used the number 94, because I sat at a game in 1999 and EVERYTHING he threw was 94 and above, and, in fact, he spent most of the game hovering at 97 or 98 MPH. He threw unbelievably hard.
LikeLike
I think the Marlins are for real. A lineup of Cameron Maybin, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Cantu, etc. is pretty respectable and with their starting pitching, they could easily contend. Anyone find it amusing that they’ve used Ronny Paulino so much already?
As for Kendrick, good to see him recover after that bad first start. Glad I got to see Marson in his only game, too bad he might get sent back down.
LikeLike
Man now you can’t even call some one an idiot when they make a ridiculous point. When did this change?
LikeLike
Catch 22 f/k/a H Man – that is just silly. two thoughts
1. the data doesn’t support you. there are plenty of top right handers that don’t sit 94-97
2. why would these teams draft and pay first and second round picks that don’t throw 94+ if that was true. you think that you stumbled on something that these lifetime scouts and gms don’t know?
but you can believe whatever you want.
LikeLike
I saw Stutes tonight. Threw mostly inside to hitters. I didn’t get the good angle on him and watched him from a side view. He threw nice and steady with fasballs mixed in with a dew changeups. In a jam in the 3rd ining, he reared back and fired away, ending a 1 out threat by blowing away two batters. Impressive. Worth the price of admission right there ($5). Guy sort of reminded me of Geoff Geary with his build. But pitching in a big time college program at OSU, you could tell he has advanced knowledge of pitching. I bet he ends up eventually in the Philadelphia bullpen.
LikeLike
Average fastball speed (career) – from Fangraphs
Halladay 92.0
Peavy 91.6
Webb 88.1
Haren 91.5
Lowe 88.4
Lackey 91.0
The list goes on and on, but I don’t feel like searching.
Getting sink and run, while having control of where the ball is going is just as important as throwing hard. There are a lot of pitchers (95+mph) who burn out or never amount to anything because they are throwers and not pitchers. Throwing hard =/= to success in the majors.
LikeLike
PP Fan – a couple of responses
1. I want to be really clear that what I am talking about is right-handed pitchers. Many (even most) successful lefthanders don’t hit anywhere close to the mid-nineties on the gun (although, if they do, they are that much more devastating).
2. I am not talking about the ability to throw every pitch in the mid 90s or above. I am talking about the ability to throw such a pitch when needed (or to set up other pitches), which means, perhaps once or twice in each count.
3. My premise, is that the really dominant right-handed pitchers either throw very hard or have a special trick or out pitch that is devastating. I am not saying that true masters of deception, like Greg Maddux, Daisuke, Catfish Hunter, Mike Cuellar or even Pedro Martinez (note that he used to regularly throw in the mid to high 90s) do not exist. What I am saying is that these types of pitchers are extremely, extremely rare. Name ONE outstanding right-handed pitcher the Phils have had over the last 40 years who did not throw particularly hard. Knock yourself out, because there is no such person.
Also, please note that I am NOT saying that a pitcher who throws in the low 90s and mixes up his pitches will never be effective. These guys often become useful middle-of-rotation starters. But do they become stars? Players you build a franchise around? Not very often.
4. Okay, take a good look at the top right-handed starters in MLB today. There is one “Greg Maddux” type I can think of and that’s Daisuke – maybe there’s someone else I’m not thinking of (for a while, Mike Mussina fit into that category, but he’s back on his farm in Pennsylvania). Now, let’s look at the rest of them: (a) Tim Lincecum – high 90s; (b) Roy Halladay – low 90s with incredible movement (may fit into exception category); (c) Jake Peavy – mid 90s; (d) Roy Oswalt – when he’s effective, mid 90s (when he’s in the low 90s, he struggles); (e) Josh Beckett – mid 90s; (f) Rich Harden – mid to high 90s; (g) Felix Hernandez – mid to high 90s; (h) Chad Billingsley – mid 90s; (i) Brandon Webb – devastating sinker – “out” pitch; (j) Matt Garza – mid to upper 90s; (k) John Smoltz – mid 90s or higher (at least historically); (l) Carlos Zambrano – mid 90s (when he’s effective); (m) A.J. Burnett – mid to upper 90s. And, by the way, I’ve been watching baseball for a long time and it has virtually always been like this. The hard-throwing right-handers and those few righties with a special “out” pitch or trick pitch dominate. There are definitely always some other guys who work their way into the equation, but they’re in the minority.
So, yes, I’ll continue to “believe” this because the overwhelming evidence right in front of me supports this conclusion.
5. In terms of teams taking first and second round picks on guys who do not throw in the mid 90s, you have to remember that much of what teams do when they select a young player is to “project” what they think that player will become. So, if a team sees a young pitcher with a big, projectable body throw in the upper 80s or around 90, they may project him to be a very hard thrower several years hence. Also many pitchers do throw that hard when drafted only to burn out later. Finally, some teams have draft strategies that I do not agree with. I will tell you, however, that when I hear that a team has used a first or second round pick on a right-handed control pitcher, my first assumption is that they just wasted a pick.
LikeLike
B:
I had not seen your response when I post mine. It’s very interesting. I can tell you that almost every game I’ve seen Peavy pitch, he can regularly turn it up to the mid-90s.
What is also interesting about the list is that many of the guys you mention have virtually unhittable sinking action either on a split fingered pitch or a nasty sinker/slider (Derek Lowe’s a great example). These guys aren’t just mixing it up like Brett Myers or other standard 3 or 4 pitch pitcher might do, they have a particular pitch that is almost impossible to hit. They fit squarely within my profile.
LikeLike
The lakewood team is young, Will some of those kids be sent back to williamsport? I am wondering if they are there to get into games until the shorter season teams start up. and why is Swimmer still in a ball this kid should be in reading. I can’t see him in a ball he is really advanced.
LikeLike