Everyone here knows how much I love the draft. Part of the luster from this year’s draft is gone because we won’t have a first round pick and will pick near the end of the second round, but as always, I’m excited about the draft nonetheless. Steven Strasburg is the clear #1 pick, Grant Green is likely the 2nd best player in the draft, and the Phillies will be looking much further down the board. While we need to target the best player available with our first few picks, what areas of the system do we really need to strengthen? My first glance, when looking at our current prospects, is that we need to focus on corner infielders, as well as middle infielders. We have a glut (relatively speaking) in the outfield, as well as at catcher. I suppose we could also use a few more prospects with plus raw power, as Taylor is really our only legit power prospect. And I suppose it never hurts to have a few more arms, particularly lefties.
I’m getting close to unveiling my new prospect evaluation toy I’ve been building, and I will also crank out my Top 30 list, hopefully by the end of next week. And once spring training games start, we can monitor the progress of Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, and others. Should be fun to watch, so stay tuned.
Phuture Phillies 
I think they should target some power prospects in the draft and really concentrate (since they’ll have extra money to play with) on busting slot of some later round guys. Even without a first round pick, they could parlay this draft into a successful one if they spend like they did last year.
As for Spring Training, my wife just sprung on me as an early b-day present that she is going to send me down to Florida to catch a couple of games early in March. So I’ll be able to give some firsthand reports. That’s quite a woman I got there!
– Jeff
LikeLike
I also love the draft, and I am also a bit bummed about losing our first round pick. The only saving grace is that a quality draft can still be had in baseball without a first round pick, so hopefully Amaro and his new crew will continue the aggresive nature that was displayed in 2008. Like PP touched upon and Jeff echoed, I would love to see some power bats enter the system. For so long now, it has not really been a need on the big league club, but all of a sudden a lot of our power bats are aging or are gone completely.
On a seperate but related note, I will be very interested to see if the Phillies change their philosophy on international prospects this year. I have heard rumblings that many teams, with the failing economy in mind, are going to drastically slash their international budget. The reasoning is to obviously save a dollar or two, but also because hardly any fans would recognize a decrease in spending in this particular area. It isn’t exactly a hot button issue in the DN and Inquirer. So, seeing how the phillies have added payroll to the big league club, and how they do not have a first round pick, perhaps they will take this oppurtunity to make a long awaited splash in the international pool. Just a thought.
LikeLike
I am curious about one thing the front office has said about losing the first round pick, that they can use that money to be more aggressive in signing foreign talent. We usually focus on the draft a whole lot more then foreign signings, so I am wondering if there is better value in using that money to be more aggressive in the draft or signing Hispanic talent.
LikeLike
Hopefully the team has a set budget, and didn’t change the budget based upon the fact that they lost a first round pick. As others have said, you can still have a successful draft if you are able to sign some of those late round flyer types and buy them out of their college commitment. Being not too familiar with the draft, a lot of those guys seem to always be pitchers though. Are there power guys to be had with those spots?
LikeLike
We should bust slot on a couple of arms and go from there. You can never have too much pitching in the system. Once Carrasco and Drabek graduate, our system could use a boost in that area.
LikeLike
From following this team I really don’t think they have an draft budget vs. international budget vs. a big club budget. I think they have a player budget period, big, draft and international. I wouldn’t expect them to take the $2 million or so saved from not having a 1st and a sandwich this year and use it to bust slot later on in the draft. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see it happening.
LikeLike
Is there a big time college third baseman(oops that draft thing again)
All I can say is draft young where you are strong in the majors
and college where you are weak.
What is the success rate on international players signed for big money .Seems like for every Caberra thre are a lot of failures Any ideas??
LikeLike
Agree with Jeff O that taking some fliers on slot-busters in later rounds is the way to go with this draft. And Jeff: have fun in Clearwater, that’s a helluva birthday gift!
As far as the early picks go… while best player available is certainly the way to go, I’d like to see the Phils take some polished college bats early, especially at 3B and 1B. It’s okay to gamble on upside when you have multiple high picks (as the Phils did last year), but with a limited number of picks, I’d rather go for more of a “sure thing.”
In that vein, a couple of names that jump out at me, looking at BA’s Top 50 college players: Kyle Seager, the UNC 3B (.347/.421/.597 last year, with a .288/.364/.380 mark on the Cape); and Rich Poythress, the UGA 1B (.374/.461/.626 last year, with a .311/.462/.377 mark on the Cape). Both should last until at least our 2nd round pick, and both seem like candidates to be fast movers once they get adjusted to pro ball.
LikeLike
Ryan Howard, Ryan Madson, Dominic Brown – None of these guys were a 1st/2nd round picks. We can still come up with something. I’m not worried.
I think when you don’t have a 1st round pick and are picking sooo late, they just have to go by talent for awhile. Hopefully they just draft a ton of arms. We may need infield help, but pitching is so crucial we/and every team will always need help there. But best available talent for the first few rounds, and if that means it’s an OF or C then so be it.
I am hoping they actually throw a serious amount of money at late rounders hoping that a few pan out. $1.5 million first round pick money can buy about 3 Cosarts???? It may not be practical, but if they are all arms on big projectable frames why not??? It’s not like saving that money is doing anyone any good since that money is not used in conjuction with the big league so it’s not preventing us from getting a trade deadline improvement.
LikeLike
When I wonder over to the Carpenter Complex in a couple of weeks Mattair and Hewitt will get my most attention. They are the third basemen of the future. One has been compared to the physique of Scott Rolen and the other to Bo Jackson but the jury is still out if they can play at the Bank. Donald said this week that he feels more comfortible at third than second. Though it seems that they are grooming him more to take over for Bruntlett as the utility infielder next year than putting him at third permanently. Clearly with the Feliz contract up at the end of the season, third base will be the issue especially since they have 6 year free agents like Tiffee at AAA and Sellers at AA as their likely top minor league third basemen which will almost required them to sign Feliz for another year or two if his back can take it . This would allow them to see if Hewitt or Mattair will develope or not. i
LikeLike
Or they could just toss Donald at 3B and hope he works out…resigning Feliz should be the Option K out of their ways to go on 3B in 2010,
LikeLike
Somebody was talking up spending big in Latin America. Ironic, today the story breaks that Esmalyn Gonzalez, one of the Washington Nationals top prospects, has been shown to be an imposter. He received $1.4 as a 16 year old a couple years back. Now it has been found he was actually a 23 year old named Carlos Lugo. That’s today’s news.
LikeLike
Thats actually a few days old, but still relevant. That’s the inherent danger of investing in Latin America. You have to trust your scouts and people or you’re basically just rolling the dice, even more so than your average prospect investment.
LikeLike
I think i’m still on a WS high, but I think given the Phillies are cash flush, they stand an excellent chance in the international market this year. If free agency is any sign, other teams will/have clearly cut back on international signings and there should be some excellent deals to be had out there for anyone willing to spend. Additionally, regarding this years draft, the same may apply, a prospect who might previously been taken in the 10th round with a teams expectation of paying 600k might get passed over this year. If you’re willing to spend the money this year, you’re golden.
LikeLike
Marfis, you are making it seem a bit worst than it actually is. The Nats signed Lugo to 1.4 million dollars in 2006 when they believed he was a 16 year old prospect. In reality, he was four years older than his listed age of 16, making him 20 and not 23. I am not defending the Nationals decision. It was, in a word, moronic. What I am defending is the international market in the Caribbean. Lugo, If I remember correctly, was setting off numerous alarms for many teams with his supposive age. In fact, I think the Nationals basically outbid themselves when they signed him to 1.4 million dollars. Also, there may be more behind this story in regards to Jose Rijo and Jim Bowden, who have both been accused of taking kickbacks from international signingsin the past. What I am trying to say is that this was not a peachy-keen signing that was applauded by the industry that just happened to explode in the Nationals face. It was heavily questioned in 2006 and now again in 2009. In other words, this is not the norm, but rather the exception.
LikeLike
This is why they should, and really NEED to set up an International Draft when the current CBA expires after the 2011 season. I tend to think its gonna happen this time around.
LikeLike
I think the major red flag in the Nationals issue was they went through Mr. Lugo’s (if THAT is his real name) busto (spelling?) rather then their local scouting coordinator. It seems like a very stupid thing to do and they got what they deserved.
To your point Neduol Caz, the report I read had the next highest bid at around $700,00. They definitely shot themselves in the foot.
Mr. Lugo’s line last year was pretty good and I believe he won the leagues batting title, but it’s the type of performance you’d expect from a 23 year old against A competition.
LikeLike
Perhaps they could void the contract…I think they’d have a pretty good case to do so.
LikeLike
I guess you could look on the bright side not having to scout
about 30 guys should give the drafting team more time to pick
some hidden diamonds or eliminate clunkers
LikeLike
actually given there position in the draft make that 50 or 60
LikeLike
as ive said i continue to believe savery will wind up as a position player. 1st or of. but he is a lh,er. i would go with a righty bat and pitching of course.
LikeLike
They could void Lugo’s contract but I doubt they would get their money back. If he stays in the Dominican he will like not earn that amount total for the rest of his life.
Sticking with best available player in the upcoming draft is a good strategy —–
LikeLike
we won’t know until june but after reading comments from david montgomery in a recent article and hearing him on wip yesterday both times he mentioned that since they have their core players now, the biggest challenge is for the future players of the team. (whew, run-on sentence or what?). maybe…just maybe, they will keep the budget near or close to next year and stay away from the feared 4th year seniors and organizational draft picks. a few early hs projectibles (drafted and signed) and some august 15th hs deadline signings will prove this.
LikeLike
2008 first-round draft pick Anthony Hewitt might hit the ball as hard as anybody in camp. The ball just explodes off his bat. It’s pretty amazing to watch and consider that he is still a teenager. That said, don’t expect to see him in the big leagues any time soon. He is very much a project. Still, it is fun to watch him take batting practice.- From Dave Murphy today, this isn’t anything we didn’t know, kid needs to hit live pitching.
LikeLike
Mr. Lugo was 20 when he got $1.4m and the Phils gave a 19-year-old $1.3m last year. Sweet.
In contrast to what Rodeo said, most teams do separate their player development and big league budgets. Hence, I would guess that the Phils spend close to last year’s total player development budget, probably slightly less due to the economy.
I’d like to see them draft some 2B/SS guys with power potential. I know those are few and far between, but they tend to be more flexible down the road when it comes to changing positions, i.e. it’s easier to move a SS to 3B than the other way. There must be some HS guys like that out there. Go Marti!
Jeff O and Rickey, can’t wait to hear the firsthand reports.
LikeLike
Well, he’s got about 5 more years of practice ahead of him so he’ll get plenty of chances to hit live pitching.
LikeLike
Boston Phan – I don’t dispute that, and I can’t point to any specific articles/interviews, but that is not the impression I’ve gotten from what I’ve heard from the FO guys. We will see though.
At the very least I think they might just budget things in the sense of ‘we have X picks in these rounds so we need Y money’ rather then ‘we have X money budgeted which will be spent on whatever picks/signings we make, regardless of if we have a 1st rounder or not’.
I don’t think they would void Lugo’s contract at this point. He is still putting up a good line and could develop into a servicable player.
LikeLike
Lots of interesting draft talk here, as always. If I may, a couple of initial thoughts of my own…
*** Seager is a natural second baseman transitioning to third for the first time at UNC this season. His swing makes him look like a poor man’s Utley at the plate, but it’s even more of a pure line drive stroke than Utley’s, if that’s possible. Bottom line, I think Seager is a second baseman who will be a good pro for a long time, but with an ultimate power ceiling more in line with former Tar Heel Brian Roberts than Utley.
*** Poythress should be there when the Phillies make their first pick, but a big spring should allow him to cement his claim as the top college first baseman…so maybe he won’t be around after all. There is a slight chance a team might think he can handle third base…stranger things have happened.
*** It’s a very weak year for corner infielders across the board. In fact, I think the prep first baseman crop and the college third baseman grouping are probably the two weakest of all the 2009 position groups. As for third base prospects to consider early on, Bobby Borchering (pro body, above-average in all phases of game), Matt Davidson (big power, questionable defense), and Richie Shaffer (fast rising prospect, huge arm at third, most likely to be there in second round) are the top three high schoolers to watch. Chris Dominguez (Louisville) is my favorite of a bad, bad bunch of college third basemen – two plus tools (power and throwing arm) make him an option at third (perfect world scenario), right field (if the bat lags, maybe a switch to the outfield would jumpstart it as a pro), or on the mound (his arm is good enough that it’s a viable last ditch effort).
*** If the weakest position of the draft is corner bats, the strongest is probably righthanded pitching. I think the strongest spots overall are (in order) prep catchers, college righties, prep righties, college middle infielders, and then either college or prep lefties (take your pick, they are close). So of the six strongest spots, four of them are pitching. I think the best approach for the Phillies is to stay true to their board and pick off the pitching they want, when they want it. Not exactly a revolutionary approach (BPA combined with sticking to the strength of the draft is common practice these days), but it could prove to be an effective one.
Of course, it’s technically way too early to be talking draft…but that doesn’t make it any less fun.
LikeLike
Oh, and since I think this is my first comment from this new account, I just want to reiterate how outstanding I think this site is. It ranks up there with some of the most thoughtful writing of any team’s minor leaguers on all the internet and, as dorky as this makes me sound, it makes me that much prouder to be a Phillies fan.
LikeLike
Dominguez is pretty interesting. Most seem to think he won’t stick at 3B, which ramps up the expectations for his bat, and he apparently swings and misses a lot.
I’m working on a pretty big college baseball project right now, which is delaying my top 30. But only one project at a time.
LikeLike
Zolecki has a great article on Hewitt up on the Phillies site
LikeLike
So…imagine if Hewitt actually lives up to his vast potential.
Wouldn’t that be awesome?
LikeLike
Yeah, the Phils are due for one of these “toolsy” guys to pan out sooner or later. My guess is that, of the guys they currently have in the system, Brown has the best chance, followed by Collier (ya gotta love the plate discipline on both of them).
I took the Hewitt article with a grain of salt, considering it was on the Phillies webpage. If one of those Phillies-hating guys like Keith Law wrote it, then I would pay more attention.
LikeLike
They took the old Greg Golson articles and replaced the name with Anthony hewitt.
LikeLike
it was a puff piece, but in truth, he does have awesome tools. will be fun to see his maturation/development. the top thing that i took from the article was how everyone kept raving about his makeup. that is so key.
savery being mentioned in the same article brought me to think how different prospects those two are. one is young and all tools. maybe he pans out or maybe not, but his raw athletecism is undeniable. the other is getting towards the old side for his level/development needs, and seems to lack great tools for a pitcher but has a better pedigree.
completely different prospects.
LikeLike
Lot of topics here to comment on.
On Mr Gonzales er Lugo — Homeland Security should not let him back into the country for Passport fraud. That is how a normal person would be treated. Baseball should push for this. It would do a lot to discourage this sort of subterfuge.
On the draft — You can get as good a crop as you are willing to budget for. Each year it seems, a team uses a 2nd or 3rd round pick to sign a top 15 talent that ends up with a multi-million $ contract. Lots of HS 2nd and 3rd round talent slips way late in the draft because they want sandwich pick or late first round $.
On Phillies drafting in later rounds — of the guys on my top 10, Drabek is the only first round pick. Donald, Taylor, Marson, D’Arnaud, Brown, Happ, Knapp all later rounds. I don’t have any other first rounders in top 20, other than Drabek.
On international — The Phillies are not big spenders and could be a lot more productive. Still we have Ruiz, Carrasco, Garcia whom I like more than most, Bastardo, Galvis, Valle. For the $ spent, I don’t think this is any riskier than the draft. If you ignore the $ spent on the Asians years ago, I think our return for international $ is fine. I’d spend more to makeup for lost #1.
From the 2009 draft, we can’t really target anyone picking near the end of the second round. Just the best player available, with a special glance at guys where some extra $ will help.
LikeLike
I don’t mean to be a Hewitt Hater, because I want to see the guy succeed as much as any Phils fan, but he is not all that young. He’ll be 20 in two months. Assuming he gets most of his at bats in Lakewood this year (which may be aggressive), he’ll spend his 20-year-old season in A-, compared to Savery who was 21 in A- (all 26 innings of it).
Savery and he are indeed quite different, but Savery will be 23 all season in AA. That’s not too old for that league. Taylor is the same age. While Savery hasn’t been everything we’ve hoped for, he’s still young enough that we should expect him to keep developing.
Brown is the one they should be writing articles about – he now has two promising years of professional baseball under his belt and will be 21 in A+ this year.
LikeLike
allentown, this is splitting hairs but I think that D’Arnaud is considered a first-round pick because it he was picked in the supplemental round to the first round.
Also, of the top ten in the Reader Top 30, 4 of the 9 that were drafted were drafted in the first round or the supplemental first round (Drabek, D’Arnaud, Savery, Collier).
But you make a good point – the Phils have done a good job outside of the first round too, including guys on the ML roster like Howard, Rollins, and Madson.
LikeLike
I’m excited for that college baseball project to be completed, extra incentive to check in everyday.
Dominguez definitely can swing and miss with the best of them. His debut tonight against Florida: 0-4, 2 K. Big power, lots of K’s, questionable defense at third…maybe he’s a righthanded Russell Branyan?
LikeLike
Boston Phan —
Yes, I guess I always have considered later sandwich picks to be more like second round picks than first rounders. D’Arnaud was the 37th selection in the draft.
Brown has been promising at a younger age than Taylor, but has yet to put up what could be considered a good offensive season. OPS of .557 in his 117 AB initial season, .765 at Williamsport, and .799 at Lakewood. So, the good news is he’s getting better numbers as he progresses one level per season. That puts him on pace, but not on a rapid pace for a HS kid, like say Cardenas who was the sandwich pick the year Brown was drafted made it to AA during this past season. He put up a slightly lower 771 OPS at Lakewood, but did so a year earlier after skipping Williamsport. Cardenas did have an over .800 OPS at CLW before he was traded this year. If Brown has to be a corner OF, rather than a CF, then he needs to develop more bat.
LikeLike