Hyperbole! With the signing of Raul Ibanez, the Phillies forfeit their first round pick in 2009. Because they did not offer arbitration to any of their free agents, they won’t receive any compensation picks. So the Phillies will not pick in Round 1, there will be a decently sized compensation round between the first and second round, and then the Phillies will pick near the end of round 2, likely to be somewhere in the 60’s. Of course if they sign another Type A free agent they won’t pick till the 3rd round. Last year’s draft was great, as I’ve detailed a number of times. This year, they are going to have to go well over slot a number of times to make up for the lack of picks. We’ll see if they do. No using getting upset over it right now, nothing we can do about it.
145 thoughts on “Phillies to concede the 2009 draft”
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Phuture Phillies 
Although, like almost everyone else who contributes to this website, I was not happy about their losing a first round pick (really, when you take a step back, it’s like trading Pat Burrell and a first round pick for Raul Ibanez together with a cut in the salary payable to your left fielder – not a great deal, but an understandable deal for a team trying to defend a championship), but this option was about a million times better than all of the deals I saw proposed where the Phils were losing Donald or Happ.
I’d give Ruben a “B” on this trade, a “B+” on the Paulino trade (let’s face it Jaramillo had no place to go) and another “B+” on the Mayberry trade. But I give him an “A” for not trading away key components on the farm. He’s off to a very decent start.
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Catch…there is still time for him to trade some key components on the farm. I don’t like this trade just because the team doesn’t really need another LH bat, Ibanez’s age, and the losing of the pick. But, lf they are able to sign two or three flyers in the later rounds for way over slot, then it won’t be as big of a deal. Another option would be to (finally) spend money internationally
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If they were going to make a pick like Hewitt again you don’t want them to have a 1st rounder.
I think the truth is in the first sentence, word actually, of this post. They can go international and/or go overslot in later rounds and have just as good of a draft as they did this year. The draft is forfeited is hyperbole.
They’ll ‘make up’ 2010 anyway. I see Madson and Myers departing via free agency and both being offered arbitration.
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They will try hard to sign Madson and with good reason. As for Myers, they are either going to keep Blanton or Myers, but probably not both. Who they keep and how it goes remains to be seen. Right now, there appears to be very little difference between Myers and Blanton, except that Myers is less consistent but has more of an ability to dominate a game. What I have learned to like about Blanton is that he appears to be completely unflappable – a nice quality to have in Philly.
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You guys are too attached on this one. Ibanez is a very good outfielder who hits lefties better than righties. Add in the phils were picking dead last in the first round, so the risk is minimal. I love Burrell, but at this point Ibanez is a much better all around player. And he could hit easily 30 bombs in CBP.
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Duke- Ibanez is a horrible fielder- are you joking?
I’m also still waiting for Jenkins and Feliz to hit 30 bombs at CBP like everyone said last year.
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Duke, statistically speaking, Ibanez was one of the worst defensive leftfielders in baseball last season, as well as over the last 3 seasons. And by “statistically speaking” I mean using actual advanced metrics, not just errors and assists, which are fairly meaningless evaluation tools.
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Catch – I think they want to, but I don’t know if they can. After his postseason performance his agent has tossed aroung the ’emerging closer’ tag on him. Someone will offer him money and the spot to be a closer if he has a good year this year. The Phillies won’t/can’t match that.
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I can’t speak to Ibanez’s performance as an outfielder.
As a hitter, however, he’s pretty damned good. Yes, he’s definitely a risk at 36 but, unlike, Jenkins, has shown no signs of tailing off. His age presents risk but, at the same time, that’s why he will be paid $10 million a year and not $16-18 million a year (the price he might have commanded with similar statistics if he had been 30 or 31).
Also, if he is anything close to the hitter he has been, Ibanez brings something critical to the no. 5 hole in the line-up – the ability to make contact with power.
Although, if it were me, I would have simply offered Burrell arbitration, this was not the worst move and, if they use some of the saved money to go above slot to sign young players, it will all be good.
We are going to learn a lot about Ruben Amaro over the next 9 months. What we have learned so far is that he is pretty cautious, but is willing to pull the trigger when necessary. He’s been earning some points with me.
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Phuture – So was/is Burrell.
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If they were smart, they’d bat him 6th and put either Vic or Werth in the 5 hole. Granted Vic isn’t a prototypical 5 hole hitter but he did have the highest batting average on the team and would get on base alot infront of Ibanez.
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Ibanez and Jenkins
I’d rather have Mike Taylor and Dom Brown on the team next year than the two old guys.
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They seem to have a good young nucleus of future major league prospects at all positions in the system so Ruben could afford to forfeit a No.1 draft pick next year for Ibanez. Mayberry is major league ready at AAA. Taylor, Berry, Brown and Castro will be ready in a few years in the outfield. Major league ready with the bat Donald can now play all the infield positions and Mattair, 3rd; Galvis, ss; and H. Garcia, 2b have the ability to be major league ready in a few years. They can always move a catcher like D’Arnaud to first or Savery to first, if he gets lit up at AA this year. They still have Durant and they reportedly moved De Los Santos to first in the FIL. Behind the plate Naughton has turned the corner and is almost exactly two month younger than major league ready Marson. They will form a strong future left, right hitting catching tandem for a long time. Plus teenager Sabastian Valle already has proven to be a leader in the Gulf Coast League where he keyed the championship win from behind the plate. We all know they are deep in young arms from ML ready Carrasco to soon to be ML ready Drabek on down.
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I’m not crazy about another lefthanded batter and I guarantee that the Mets will sign another lefty reliever now but you have to like the idea of adding a .300 hitter with 20-25 hr power to the lineup. They lost their first round pick (the last pick obviously) but saved 5 million a year in that Burrell would have received 15M in arbitartion. If they spend that money to go overslot on high school guys, it could still work out. By the way, Madson is represented by Boras which probably means that he won’t resign in Philly. Boras will get someone to pay closer money to Madson which the Phils won’t be able to touch. Myers is a completely different story. He LOVES Philly’s attitude and will definitely resign if he’s offered a fair deal. I would not be surprised if he gets off to a good start next year and the Phils approach him mid season to extend. The best news about the signing to this site is that they don’t want to trade the prospects. It seems we hear something every day about how they value Donald, Marson, and Carrasco. I think Ruben understands that to keep the team’s salaries where they need to be, he’ll need to add cheap young players frequently. I’m still pulling for Donald to get first crack at 2B in Chase’s absence and if he does well, he’ll stick around and play some third at times.
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Good points Rickey.
More than any other sport, in baseball, it doesn’t matter where you draft, it’s what you do with who you draft.
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I think the Ibanez signing could be a prelude to obtaining a right handed power hitting third baseman(Atkins/Beltre) to balance the lineup. Unfortunately, we would lose a few prospects in the deal. Just a guess/hope!
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The reason they didn’t lose draft picks by not offering Burrell and Moyer arbitration is because they would have accepted . They would have made far more in arbitration than they will on the open market. They would have both made $16 million a year or more in arbitration. They won’t make anywhere near that in free agency, so they would have accepted. If people disagree then it will be shown who is right in the rest of the offseason. If they make more than $16 million a year for multiple years, then they likely might have rejected arbitration. Anybody want to put their good name on the line to see who’s right?
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I don’t think there was a guarantee that either Burrell or Moyer would accept. From my point of view I would have been fine with both accepting arbitration but I guess it’s not my money. Both are looking for multi-year deals however and were at least 50-50 to decline the offer and we would get a couple high picks.
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Although its not a good thing to lose picks in the early rounds it doesnt hurt a team if they are willing to go after hard to sign guys. Grabbing great talent late for early round money is still a possibility and we just have to hope the Phillies reach out and use the 1st RD money on another Cosart and Gose.
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I think Moyer was likely to accept, not so sure about Burrell. Burrell isn’t going to get 14M x 4 years, but I think he’ll at least get a deal similar to what Ibanez got. And if he accepts, we don’t end up having to sign Ibanez and give up our 1st round pick.
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As mentioned in the opening paragraph, its not an issue with losing a 1st round pick as long as the money that would have been used to sign that pick is allocated elsewhere in the draft.
As long as Amaro takes that $1+ million to sign a couple of slot busters in 09 or a few international FA’s, the impact is minimal.
As for Ibanez’s defense. Aside from all of those advanced metrics which no doubt prove just how bad defensively Ibanez is, is he worse than Pat Burrell?
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Honestly, is anyone worse in LF than Burrell? Range wise at least. Burrell was good on balls he got to and had a good accurate arm…things overlooked by fielding metrics.
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If the best Burrell gets is 3 yrs -$30 million he would have been stupid NOT to accept arbitration and take the 1 yr $15 million he would have been awarded.
IF you believe that Burrell/Ibanez are on par as players, as I do, then the 26th pick in the draft is not worth $5 million.
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I love Ibanez’ bat and by most accounts he’s a hard working solid citizen who plays hard every day. You can never have enough talented, high-character players so I can’t be overly critical of the signing even if it does cost two picks and three years to replace Burrell. But is Ibanez that much better than Burrell would have been on a one-year arbitration deal? Probably not, which makes me believe the Phillies just wanted to cut ties with Burrell regardless. Elvis has left the building.
Meanwhile it leaves the Phillies with a lot of work left to do since Ibanez isn’t exactly a perfect fit. We still need a top starting pitcher, though it’s looking less likely we’ll sign Lowe or Burnett. We also need a RH bat and at least one more arm in the pen.
As for the 2009 draft picks, well, I don’t mind spending picks to upgrade the top of your rotation but the picks are gone and the rotation is in worse shape for the time being, not better.
I still feel the off-season rides on signing Lowe. The pick we’d give up for him won’t be especially painful now that it’d be a low second rounder anyway. I’m not holding my breath but if Lowe is not in the cards then they better sign Moyer before he gets away, too.
You will always have better options filling holes on offense than in your rotation, there are more choices and often at a bargain, but once the top pitchers are gone there’s nothing you can do.
It gets old year after year watching top starting pitchers sign with other teams while the Phillies never seem to be more than passing bidders. Yes, Lowe and Burnett are expensive risks but pitching is the holy grail and you simply can’t make up for it by boosting offense instead.
Oh, and as far as busting slot on next year’s draft, I’d say the the Cosart signing this year makes me more confident they will take that approach to make up for the deficit in picks.
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I think it’ll be really funny if Pat signs a 2 year deal with the Mariners when all the dust settles…
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and
John Dewan’s +/- system is the most accurate defensive analysis tool available at this point, in my opinion anyway. You can get fielding data for every player at billjamesonline, which costs like 3 dollars a month or something. The system uses video analysis to rate every single play, using the field divided into slices to determine what plays an average player gets to. A + rating means that player made more plays than the average player at that position, with a – indicating he made fewer plays.
Ibanez, 2008: -18
Ibanez, 2006-2008: -41
Burrell, 2008: -20
Burrell, 2006-2008: -73
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does it have a clause for a rocking chair in the last year of the
contract. Pospect still here who cares it is still a walk until
2011
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Good reference tool, PP…thanks!
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So then the answer is that yes, Ibanez IS better defensive than Pat Burrell.
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What would it hurt to at least off 10mil to Pat. I know you cant see it but right now I have a confused look on my face
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I guess +/- is cumulative in the same way errors are? 2006-2008 is the number of ‘minus’ plays he made in that period?
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I hope he is enough better so that the defensive replacement comes in during the 9th inning and not the 7th inning. Watching that offense disappear night after night was beyond frustrating.
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Well, he’s better, but still one of the worst overall, and was only 2 plays better than Burrell in 2008. That’s like saying an avalanche is better than a tsunami. Both still suck.
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NoWheels, they did offer $10 million to Pat. Actually, they offered him 2-years , $22 million and he turned it down.
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I know PP, just playing with you. I know you don’t like the signing.
Can’t say I’m thrilled with it either but I was never much of a Burrell fan either so to me its a slight improvement.
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I was cutting Amaro some slack because I actually liked the Mayberry and Paulino deals.
But this Ibanez deal is awful. As bad as anything Ed Wade ever did. This is another David Bell signing, except with an even older player for twice as much money.
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I don’t think this is a bad deal at all. Not the deal I might have done, but not a bad deal. I view this as one to two definite years of Ibanez in left and a third year where he will probably be a spot starter or will play if one of the young outfielders falter.
There’s one other thing to remember. If Ibanez can still play (and the stat.s say that he can), he will be cheap enough that he will be someone another team will want in a trade deadline deal. If he can play, it’s a player they need at a competitive rate with the added benefit residual trade value.
Could this be a disaster? Sure it could, but it is really not looking that way.
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DON’T BE SURPRISED IF . . .
The Phils sign Wily Mo Pena. Pena is right-handed, is young, is coming off an injury and should be cheap. But he has always had a world of talent and could, at the very least, provide pop off the bench. I’d love to see him compete for a spot on the team.
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Don’t blame Amaro—this has Gillick’s stamp on it. Actually I think this is a deal we may end up liking alot. I believe Mike Sciocia wanted him for the Angels and that speaks volumes regarding his abilty to play the game “right”.
As mentioned this will be fine if we take an aggressive stance on busting slot. I do see a need to move Stairs or Jenkins.
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I wonder if there was some private dislike by the current Phils management where they just didn’t want Burrell back regardless of the circumstances. The more I think about it, I’m not sure how the Phils could’ve thought one year of Burrell (even at $15mil) + 2 years of Taylor + a draft pick is better than 3 years of Ibanez at $30mil. They must either have something against Burrell that we don’t know about or they’re skeptical of Michael Taylor, right? During the summer I swear the Phils indicated they wanted him back provided he didn’t want a long term contract. Their concern was about the ability to play LF, but Ibanez is going to be almost unplayable in 2011 out there. Coupled with their need for a RH bat this doesn’t make much sense.
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I think they’re going to move Stairs and Jenkins and Mayberry will be your 4th and 5th OF’er, unless something better than Mayberry falls into their laps (Baldelli, Juan Rivera)
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The very best case scenario for this deal is that Ibanez turns out like Moises Alou, in that he’s either very good or unavailable. Alou’s bat aged about as well as possible for anyone not named “Bonds,” more than making up for his (IIRC) lousy defense.
And they paid less money than they probably thought Ibanez would require. I guess that’s a marginal something.
Still, all things considered and especially considering their now-fatal vulnerability to good lefty relievers, I hate this deal. It seems to confirm all the worst fears I’ve had about Amaro: over-valuing intangibles, unwillingness to look past shallow metrics (“He’s had 100 RBI in each of the last five seasons! And his batting average is 40 points higher than Burrell’s! And Gillick sez he’s a great guy!”) and Wade-like willingness to overpay for mediocre-to-competent players rather than shell out for excellence (Lowe, Ramirez).
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This is not devastation. This signing is solid at best and mediocre at worst. We really are nitpicking when we trash this move. The ability to hit .290 instead of .250 when you always have runners on base seems to be a step up. As for prospects, you never want to be like Wade, constantly giving up picks, but this wasn’t the highest pick in the world anyway. Someone said its not where you draft, but who. This means we have an extra $2m to bust slot with in the next few rounds. That kind of money makes kids skip college.
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It will interesting to see the lineup once Utley comes back. I am glad that the 2 relievers picked up by the Mutts are right handed. Can the Phils have all three lefties in a row?He has been consistent the last three seasons and especially last season. Seattle was brutal.
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OKAY OKAY
At least this trade doesnt damage anything but their pocketbooks. But what about the dead wood especially
Jenkins and Eaton. I lose sleep at night wondering why
they keep SO-SO around so long and how they won with
a 23 man roster.
BTW if they tendered Pat a contract and he accepted they
still could of traded him right?????
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Holy Long Island Expressway
The New York Mutts GREAT Headgear
I luv it may i use it
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The draft pick lost signing Ibanez is at the bottom of the round, which are many times fairly raw talent that can go either way. So I don’t have a problem with the signing. Ibanez handles left handers pretty good, so him being a left handed hitter will be ok. I wish they would of offered Burrell arbitration, if just for the draft pick. Right now the right hand part of the bench is slim and slow.
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Ok, come on. It would have only been #28 overall so its not a big deal? Please. That’s an asset. At 28 you’re still getting a quality player.
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I can live with it as long as they don’t go cheap in the draft.
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james, you liked who they drafted at #1156 more than who they drafted at #24. you were the one arguing last year that a lot of great picks are made late and if they go over slot, which they have shown a willingness to do, that they can get first round talent.
look, no one is saying we wouldn’t rather have a first round pick. but burrell wasn’t worth $15 mil per year and he wouldn’t sign for $10 mil. nor would adam dunn is my guess. so we have a budget and this was the best we could get within that budget. i think that he fits in perfectly and will see his good numbers improve at the bank.
ah…good to be arguing with you again james…i missed it.
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But here’s the problem with the argument.
1. No one knows whether Burrell would have accepted. He loved Philly, that was obvious, but most players look for job security as well as the most amount of money. Even getting 2/22 gives Burrell more security than 1/16. He could suffer an injury in 2009 and hit the open market again and make very little. He obviously wanted to come back to Philly, but he has agents, and his agents are going to advise him to take the best deal for him. If the reports are to be believed, he rejected a 2/22 deal from the Phillies very early in the offseason. So he clearly felt he was worth more than that.
2. Yes, I liked the over slot draft choice. And as I mentioned above, the Phillies can still have a good draft. But to say “it was only the 28th pick, no big deal” is pretty silly. There will be lots of good players on the board at 28, and there will be far fewer great players on the board when the Phillies pick in the late 60’s/early 70’s. What it does is put more pressure on your scouting guys to hit a home run in the middle rounds.
As I said, this isn’t armageddon. But it just seems weird that they chose a guy like Ibanez over a guy who put up better numbers (Dunn) that would have come at a similar cost and wouldn’t have cost a draft pick. If they’d have lost the pick to sign a front line starter like Burnett, or a solid mid line guy like Lowe, I’d have been much less worried. But I don’t like Ibanez, so that clearly will color my view of this.
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I agree with what you’re saying dajafi, but does Ibanez pee on his hands before a game? That was really the secret to Alou’s longevity.
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fair enough, but all i am saying is let’s let amaro put the entire picture together first. he might have some more planned. maybe they still will still sign lowe or someone else who would have also cost them a pick. let’s see how it plays out.
or maybe you guys are all right and i am still on a high from winning the world friggin series. i am not an angry philly fan anymore. i am more inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt
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Keith Law’s take. Not surprisingly, I agree.
Link
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Keith Law FTW
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I would have rathered that the phillies spent the money on lowe rather than ibanez even though they would still have to forfeit their first round pick. They could sign someone like juan rivera relatively cheap. They have two legit prospects in taylor and brown who will be mlb ready in a couple of years.
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I saw somewhere that there never was a 2 year 22 million offer for Burrell. It was pure media fabrication. I don’t remember where I seen it , nor do I have the link, but it’s out there. They never made an offer, I haven’t heard of anyone else making one either. Would not surprise me if no one had yet. And why would Burrell accept that anyway, when he could have made at least 16 million a year in arbitration?
Security? Let’s see somebody might take 8 million a year for 3 years rather than 16 million for one year. Anybody want to work 2 years for the money you can make in one year. Start sending out resumes.
Keith Law might be a complete basket when he hits 40, or did hit (who knows) sitting around doing who knows what. Everybody ages differently, Ibanez in great shape, dedicated, knowledgable, all that. Has his own hyperbaric chamber yet.
Ssen Ibanez field, seen Burrell field. Ibanez more likely to be a long term fielding asset. No cut up film or dubious numbers attached thereto will alter that fact.
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I don’t like this whole non-tender of burrell, sign ibanez for a lot of reasons:
1. We became less productive, less powerful, and less balanced in the lineup.
2. We end up minus at least one draft pick, when we could have been plus 2 (higher) draft picks. As Law said, this scouting dept. has been finding some keepers recently, and it seems stooopid to not give them a chance to continue that.
3. Ibanez is likely to be useless by the 3rd year of the deal.
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The prime picks in the first round are 1 thru 15. Not saying 28 doesn’t have talent. All first rounders have talent but not all are can’t misses. A good international signing could help.
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Joe Sheehan, whos work I respect the least of the BP writers, hates the deal as well.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8367
So, the breakdown seems to be; old school types who still believe RBI’s are king love the deal. “stathead geeks who live in their parents’ basement” come down against the deal. Time will tell.
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Is anybody telling me that Burrell was not hiddeen in left field because he couldn’t fit anywhere else on the field due to his fielding?
So…trading one poor fielder for another is an equaliztion in left field.
Even. So the REST OF THE STORY, the only comparison left (aside from good/bad citizenry), has to focus on what each of them brings to the game given that fielding will remain a late inning issue w or w/o Burrell there.
The Phils (and I) believe that Burrell is on a now and future decline at the plate. The last few months of ’08 showed a man struggling at bat. Rather than keep him for at least 2-3 more years while watching his production become a joke is NOT a good harbinger of good left field production, being stuck in mud for several years!
THAT would be horredous to be stuck with an EXPEN$IVE contract for little in return! Just to retain a draft choice??
No sense there…no matter how draft-oriented you are.
OTOH, Ibanez hitting is GETTING BETTER AND BETTER with good oba (.358) and 25 plus HRs and a BA at .283.
Just compare the numbers for the two player in ’08. And see their TREND over the last 3 years. Argument terminated.
No contest!
Good on you, Ruben!!
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I don’t like the Ibanez trade. A year of Burrell through arb and then to Mayberry or a cheap pickup like Werth or Coste for 2010 would have made a lot more sense, and then Taylor is ready. Ibanez probably ok in 2009, although it makes the team hopelessly LH. Yes, he hit LHP better than RHP in 2008, but that is running contrary to his career. Overall he is better against RHP and the good 2008 numbers are a pretty small sample size. His $10 mill in 2011 will be killing. Likely a big drag in 2010 as well. We will look back at this as an awful trade, and it will block our young OF by at least 2011.
Missing a #1 pick doesn’t need to hurt the draft/international signee quality. The biggest determinant is the $ spent and quality of scouting. Our scouting is very good, so it comes down to $. My fear is the Phillies will use the lost #1 as an excuse to go very, very cheap on amateur talent acquisition. If they wanted, they could up the budget from last season, sign 3 of the primo Latin American talents, bust slot on a few good HS talents in rounds 5 – 12 and end up with a bigger talent haul than in 2008. All it takes is the will. Knowing this is the Phillies, I expect really cheap and very modest amateur talent infusion in 2009. Hope I’m wrong, but we’ve all seen this before.
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As of now, the Phillies would pick at #28. If the Mariners sign Josh Fields sometime before the draft, it would be 27, as they wouldn’t receive a compensation pick there. The 2008 slot recommendation for #28 overall was right around $1.2M. If you assume slots stay the same, or maybe increase by 5-10%, the expected slot where we would have picked would be around $1.3-1.4M.
If the Phillies take this money and improve the quality of picks they take in rounds 4-12, ie, instead of taking a guy who will sign for slot like Jeremy Hamilton and pay a better talent an extra 200K to sign, then they can really come out with another great haul. But if they just subtract 1.3M from the draft budget, it will be a massive disappointment.
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I’d like to support this signing as I like Ibanez as a player but it makes very little sense in the end. Still, maybe everything will go against the odds and it will work out…Right?
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I would have rather had a speedy guy as i have stated to
run baker and mccann off the field
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At the major league level this team has not been inventive
in a long long time.
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just sign some kids overslot in the later rounds. I think the Phillies will do this again similar to last year.
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i have never seen taylor or brown which one is the righty bat. whoever is rh you better hope he rises to the top. to rodeo if you let werth walk and say brown is the lefty you will have an of of ibanez vic and brown. if brown is lh. ridiculous. so we,d better hope taylor ,the righty? makes it over brown.
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the above comment was mine
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If josh fields doesn’t sign with the mariners, is he free to sign with any team since he was drafted as a senoir? I watched him during the college world series and he looked like a stud.
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I think he’d go back into the draft.
I’m not a fan. His fastball is really straight and his secondary stuff seems to come and go. His delivery isn’t the cleanest either.
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It sucks not having a first round pick, BUT HOPEFULLY the Phils will maintain their approach from 08′ and invest wisely because players can be had in every round if the team is willing. That’s a long ways off though and we do need to hang back, watch the Hitler/Phillies skit, and enjoy that the Phillies are the World F’ing Champions.
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Here’s two things, personally I don’t love the deal or hate the deal. I’m a tweener on this.
When I went deeper in the stats I noticed how ridiculously productive Ibanez has been with RISP/RISP w/ 2 outs.
Ibanez RISP
Career.305/.380/.493/.873
08 .327/.397/.480/.877
07 .328/.411/.569/.980
06 .337/.424/.627/1.050
Ibanez RISP 2 Outs
Career .287/.385/.469/.854
08 .324/.407/.479/.886
07 .324/.425/.618/1.043
06 .377/.506/.656/1.162
Burrell RISP
Career .263/.386/.467/.853
08 .234/.358/.469/.827
07 .258/.411/.477/.888
06 .222/.376/.346/.722
Burrell RISP 2 Outs
Career .244/.389/.467/.856
08 .183/.341/.366/.707
07 .255/.438/.473/.911
06 .167/.363/.256/.619
While overall Pat’s ability to take a walk evens out Raul’s contact hitting ability, the one place that actually making contact with the ball makes a difference is with RISP and RISP w/ 2 Outs. You can’t drive in runs if you can’t put the ball in play IMO.
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My other point I forgot to add was I think the Phillies got sick of Pat’s ridiculous cold streaks where he hits .200 for an entire half season and renders himself completely useless.
I’m pretty much indifferent to the deal, there are positives and negatives to each player and I’m willing to let it play itself out on the field.
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to b one thing i noticed was each year his numbers have gone down,but they are still good.are those against lh and rh. the one problem i have is the overload of lefties.as im sure all of us do.its not only what he does against lh but howard and utley because you know were going to see an overload of lh pitchers. thats why i believe donald and marson must be on this roster.not only to start 2 games a week but to have their bats ready against lh. of course i believe donald and marson are better hitters than felez and ruiz and next year what do you do with taylor or brown. is taylor the rh and brown the lh. if so we,d better hope that taylor breaks out. oh yeah since eddie the chin likes us maybe we can get oswalt.
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Lets face it the whole Burrell things seems very personal as usual. The players they like get away with murder (see Glanville who said he wasnt taking pitch etc). Jenkins seems to be this years SO-SO
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Management made it clear Burrell wasn’t coming back…and I think Ibanez was better than a Dobbs/Jenkins/Stairs platoon in LF.
I’m willing to wait and see how this pans out. Blanton and lidge were both supposed to suffer too, and management was savy to get werth and dobbs. I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.
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Aside from the lost draft pick and overly left handedness of the lineup, Raul Ibanez is a high character player who will fit in well with our clubhouse. He also does everything under the sun to keep himself healthy from diet and exercize to sleeping in a hyperbaric chamber, so you know he has a great work ethic and dedication.
I would still rather have burrell and #28. I agree with Law wholeheartedly on this deal.
On a side note, willy Tavaras was just released and if available for a year at a time under 4-5 mil., he might be worth a look. I loved Michael Bourn and the role he played on the team. Tavaras could do the same thing and prolly hit a bit better.
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Sorry, Law lost me when he claimed that Ibanez is a far worse defensive player than Burrell.
Even Dewan’s +/- show that to not be true. Apparently Law doesn’t qualify as a stathead who lives in his parents basement?
Also, no one knows if Burrell would have accepted arbitration or not, but what we do know is that, had he accepted, his salary would have landed somewhere in the $15 million range, which is $5 million (or 4 #28 picks) higher than what Ibanez’s will be.
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3up3kkk, what about the extra 15 million we will be paying Ibanez after the 2009 season? That adds up to about 11 #28 picks in your clever little analogy. I think it is almost silly how much better off the Phillies would be with Pat on a 1 year 15 million dollar contract than with Ibanez on a 3 year 30 million deal. Maybe I will post my complete thoughts later, but I am still a bit angry.
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All these specific performance/money comparisons of Burrell and Ibanez, are missing a larger point. So many statements by Ruben hinting that we would improve our pitching. So we spend money on LH hitting OF who may not produce beyond 1-2 years? Why not sepnd all of Burrell and Moyer’s money on Lowe? That would have been worth the loss of the pick.
By the way, we lose only one pick, not two, as I read somewhere above.
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Clearly Ibanez was highly sought after—–Burrell is not. I loved Pat’s attitude and determination but he is incredibly streaky. Ibanez will be better than Pat.
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“Still, all things considered and especially considering their now-fatal vulnerability to good lefty relievers, I hate this deal. It seems to confirm all the worst fears I’ve had about Amaro: over-valuing intangibles, unwillingness to look past shallow metrics (”He’s had 100 RBI in each of the last five seasons! And his batting average is 40 points higher than Burrell’s! And Gillick sez he’s a great guy!”) and Wade-like willingness to overpay for mediocre-to-competent players rather than shell out for excellence (Lowe, Ramirez).”
Dajafi’s statement above bears repeating, because this is what my take on Amaro is right now as well. There is no tangible reason for choosing Ibanez over Burrell; quite frankly, “absurd” is the right way to describe it (thanks, Keith Law).
“I still feel the off-season rides on signing Lowe.”
Xfactor said this yesterday afternoon, and I couldn’t agree more. Even though I hate this deal, I’ll still consider us on the + side for the offseason if we somehow manage to sign Lowe. Hopefully the “flexibility” Amaro claimed as his reason for non offering arb to Burrell — and presumably kept by signing Ibanez — will extend to signing a top end starter. If not, then we’ve taken a serious step backwards.
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New headline, PP:
“Phils appoint Amaro GM; concede all drafts for next decade; guarantee plentiful supply of reliable, experienced veterans”
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Gillick was traditional in many ways also, but of a somewhat different stripe than Wade-maro. He knew talent better, went after key guys who were young with upside (Dobbs/Werth) or could contribute for multiple years (Romero, Durbin, Blanton). His crappiest moves were trying to fill rotation gaps with huge gambles (Eaton, Garcia). But I now officially miss him to death.
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They couldn’t offer arbitration to Burrell. They were afraid he would take it.
Keith Law doesn’t know what he’s talking about. You wonder if he ever saw Burrell play. Ibanez is healthier, runs better, hits with men on base better, hits lefties better than Burrell hits righties, and is a better clubhouse presence than Burrell.
I agree that Lowe is the key. He’s a perfect pitcher for our park.
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Gillick loves Ibanez–he was at the winter meetings–he surely was heavily involved in this decision.
What are Lowe’s stats outside of Dodger stadium? It seems people hate Ibanez for being a 36 yr old but Lowe at 35 is no problem
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Jeff- that isnt true
Career OPS-
vs Lefties
Burrell-.950 Ibanez- .733
vs Righties
Burrell- .819 Ibanez- .849
Plus, let’s not bring up clutch stats as they tend to fluctuate year to year (small sample size) and always tend to go towards the mean of the carrer stats over time.
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Even as phillies fans we are all overreacting to this deal. Even Keith Law sounded like he was from philly in that write-up, throwing around words like “albatross” and “absurd.” The draft isn’t “conceded” and life will go on. If we learned anything from last year’s draft it is that the philosophy has changed and we should still do pretty well. The reaction to this deal sounds like we are all being negative because we are used to being negative. We left the meetings with all of our blue chip prospects intact. We are still in great shape.
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“By the way, we lose only one pick, not two, as I read somewhere above.” — We lost a pick by signing Ibanez and we’ll lose another one when Pat signs elsewhere since we didn’t offer him arbitration. Bottom line, the Phillies felt a pick wasn’t worth the chance Pat would accept. Apparently they were never interested in bringing back Burrell, period. The reason they gave was flexibility, which makes sense if Lowe was the target, but now I see they simply didn’t want Burrell at any price.
“I think Ibanez was better than a Dobbs/Jenkins/Stairs platoon in LF.” — That can’t have been a serious option. A three-headed left-handed platoon? Where is the value in that? IMO that was as much a possibility as Carrasco and Donald for DeRosa — in other words, a fabrication.
“This is another David Bell signing, except with an even older player for twice as much money.” — If by this you mean the Phillies should have been focused on pitching instead, yes. But Ibanez is a far better hitter than Bell ever was and it’s not even close.
If you’re mad now, just wait until the market for corner outfielders collapses and someone signs Pat for a song. It would validate the lack of an arbitration offer (I believe he would have accepted) but Burrell fans will have conniption fits if/when he costs much less for another team.
My issue with the signing is this: the Phillies jumped out ahead of the market to make this deal when I feel there will be other viable RH OF options available on the cheap before the start of the season. Some names may even be a surprise. But by essentially setting the market for non-Manny corner OF the Phillies paid a premium in years and dollars. It may look like a reasonable deal now given Ibanez’ track record but by the time the season starts I believe it will be apparent they overpaid. We’ll know more after Dunn and Burrell sign. If you’re going to pay a premium, why do it for a corner OF who’s a liability on defense and is going to have trouble taking the extra base let alone steal any? I can see if you needed the LH pop but that’s the only thing the Phillies really don’t need. It still leaves the Phillies with less flexibility and essentially the same needs. Also, this probably represents a concession that Lowe is no longer in consideration so expect Moyer to sign a two-year deal.
Personally I would have take the 50MM it takes to sign Ibanez and Moyer and focused on Lowe, trying my best to sign him before AJ Burnett was off the market. Now Lowe can command top dollar as the last big pitcher available and Moyer can hold out for a second guaranteed year. After landing Lowe at a premium, I would have concentrated on signing Moyer to a two-year deal with a generous buyout option the second year. That done, I would have been satisfied with Mayberry and Dobbs/Jenkins in LF unless Dunn became available on the cheap — and he still might. Another name on the cheap could be Jonny Gomes, who could compete with Mayberry for the RH portion of the LF platoon. Another option would be Willy Taveras who led the league in steals and will run down almost everything in LF. And who knows who will pop loose in Spring training. The RH half of a LF platoon might be the easiest hole to fill in baseball and as such should never have been a top priority.
I’d even rather have signed Kerry Wood at 2/20 than Ibanez at 3/30, though I have no idea if Wood was interested in Philly.
This deal isn’t a disaster and Ibanez might just tear up the league for a year or two but he’s also likely to be a platoon player by 2011.
I may need a hyperbaric chamber myself if the Yankees sign Sabathia, Burnett AND Lowe.
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“Ibanez…will be cheap enough that he will be someone another team will want in a trade deadline deal.” — Isn’t he a 10/5 guy? Doesn’t that mean he’d have to approve any trade?
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as ive said repeatedly the thing not to do is sign platers to contracts that will block our minor league ready guys.now the phils will not eat a 3 year deal in lf, although i like ibanez.but more importantly no more long term contracts that will block carrasco,happ,donald or marson. i think d.cabrera is worth a 1 year shot but no 3 year deals or we will never see carrasco,unless that player is peavy or oswalt. my staff hamels myers blanton happ and moyer[1 year] or carrasco and im sure carrasco is ready. not sure excuse me. AS HAD BEEN SAID THERE IS NOTHING TO BE GAINED FROM DONALD AND MARSON GOING TO AAA! no more long term blockage signings.
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Jeff you are the only one , and you must be a scout you know more than law. neyer, stark, and ever one in seattle who weren’t unhappy to see this slow bad no arm outfielder leave..
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Hey rocket scientist if he got 15 it was for only one year. which was better than a 36 year old slow bad throwing outfielder who bats lefthanded,plus we still would have our draft choices.
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Red Tornado, and anyone else, these are the stat comparison the last three seasons:
Ibanez hit .269 against lefties, .300 against righties
Burrell hit .275 against lefties, .246 against righties
In 1,834 at bats, Ibanez struck out 322 times.
In 1,470 at bats, Burrell struck out 387 times.
With runners on base, Ibanez hit .321.
With runners on base, Burrell hit .255.
With RISP, Ibanez hit .331.
With RISP, Burrell hit .227.
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Darren the only reason the phillies went over slot last year was . They didn’t spend any money in the international. and they still didn’t sign there 7 pick johnny coy, year before refuse to give university of texas and cape cod all star and strike out leader workman a extra fifty thousand, and refuse to pay in the draft kyle Gibson a top 5 pick in the first round out of missouri and there 3 pick cooper riley, so forget them going over slot, My god two years ago when the had two first and took Salvery another hurt easy sign out of rice a college know for ruining pitches, they took a low level player named mach who signed for under slot, They had the pick but went cheap, mach guit after one year.
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batting average? really?
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JeffS —
Surely you jest! Batting average is the key comparison stat?
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How much better (if at all) would Ibanez be expected to hit moving from the AL to the NL? Any recent (non-Manny) players to base this on?
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“Isn’t he a 10/5 guy? Doesn’t that mean he’d have to approve any trade?” — to answer my own question, Ibanez would have to be still on the Mariners for the 10/5 rule to apply. Signing as a FA with the Phillies invalidates the 10/5. Duh. So he could be traded at any point without his consent unless he added a no-trade clause in the deal, which I’m fairly certain he didn’t. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong…
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You are right on that. 10/5 is 10 years in majors 5 with 1 team.
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Some quick observations: anyone that suggests Coste platoon in the OF doesn’t understand baseball, anyone that calls Lowe a star is mistaken, anyone that thinks Ibanez and Burrell are equal players needs to watch Ibanez play or listen to those that do. Why is it that multiple teams chased Ibanez and no one is chasing Burrell (or Dunn or Abreu for that matter). Ibanez was a late bloomer and I see no reason to believe that he’ll suddenly get old after his performance has been rock steady on a terrible team in a pitcher’s park. The Phils obviously figured they could make a run at Lowe if they got Derosa, a cheap alternative to platoon in left. Having spent money on Ibanez, the Lowe deal is dead. As for everyone thinking that Ibanez somehow blocks Taylor, that’s silly. Werth will only be signed for one year and if he has a big year like we all hope, he’ll likely be too expensive to retain after 09. The only way to afford Lowe now would be to sign him and then trade Myers to someone who covets him as a closer. You have to assume both Coste and Stairs will be traded/released although they can wait until spring training to see what offers they may get if any.
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xfactor commented on my David Bell comment:
“This is another David Bell signing, except with an even older player for twice as much money.” — If by this you mean the Phillies should have been focused on pitching instead, yes. But Ibanez is a far better hitter than Bell ever was and it’s not even close.
To answer your question, yes, the money would be better spent on starting pitching. Getting back to the Bell comment, however, the difference in positions is huge. Bell was a 3B coming off a 20 HR career year. He had a .762 OPS in his age 29 season. The typical LF has an OPS of about 20 points higher than that. I know Ibanez is also coming off somewhat of a career year at .837. So he is about 50 OPS points better relative to position. But then throw in the other factors. Bell was at least an average defensive player. Ibanez is awful. Then the factor that Ibanez is almost 7 years older than Bell at the time of the signing. That means he is far more likely to regress some in OPS, maybe 10-20 points a year.
Age is a huge, huge factor here. Teams should not throw 3-year deals at 37-year-olds. The Phillies do this all the time (the Wade Phillies anyway). Gillick actually had a much better sense of age versus talent and potential (think the inspired Werth signing). There is a very strong change that Ibanez will regress. Signing Burrell for 1-year was the proper play here. Or if he left, take the picks and then sign a 1-year stop gap (Gabe Kapler anyone?).
I agree with Law. This is an absurd signing. It would only make sense for a team with a hole and unlimited resources. There were other, better, options out there. Deals like this can kill a team’s development. If we don’t spend the extra draft millions in the international market or fliers this year, we will have a hole in our system and undid much of the progress we made the last couple of years.
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When did Wade give a significant 3-year deal to a 37 year old? Gillick did it with Gordon.
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Murray —
For a 37-year old, getting really old for baseball within a 3-yr period is hardly sudden.
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the sky is falling…the sky is falling!
you guys are such philly fans. you are looking at the glass half empty on this. i mean you would think that the phillies just let go of a hall of famer and signed a bumb.
the phillies signed a 3 year deal with a 37 year old that has consistently hit between .280 and .300 for the last 8 years with a consisten .350 ob% over that time period. a player that many of the top teams were rumored to want. a solid vetran and a good clubhouse guy. at $10 mil per year a reasonable financial committment.
they let go of a very streaky outfielder who was extremely inconsistent and wanted much more than $10 mil. per year. one who hit .227 in may, .181 in august and .205 in september. doing this in a great line up and a hitters park. they learned their lesson signing burrell to a long term contract before and wouldn’t do it again. good for them. maybe, maybe you can make the argument that dunn would have been a better signing, but i really don’t think that it fits into the phillies team well. i mean, maybe the phillies have some statistical models that we don’t have. maybe they actually have run the numbers and we haven’t.
seriously, how many people on this blog who have commented on ibanez have actually seen him play? not me. i will admit that.
david bell? come on. that is a horrible comparison. this guy can hit.
let’s give this guy a chance before we boo him. i mean, i think that the phillies have earned a little benefit of the doubt.
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Can not agree more with PP Fan. Dunn is another strikeout machine who has a great on base % and poor AVE. Streaky and LEFT-Handed. The only advantage that Dunn has over Ibanez is Power. We will see how MLB will view Burrell when he gets his contract. I really can not see a NL team signing him. He will get a one year deal with an AL in Feb when teams are looking to steal a player. Ibanez is a young 36 and Burrell is an old 32
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I love how Burrell suddenly SUCKS and is HORRIBLE. He’s streaky, almost all power hitters are. He still has almost the same very good line every year of his career in Philly other than that 03 albatross. Just because he didn’t pan out as a #1 pick and become a HoFer is no reason to rip the guy so much. So far he’s had a better career than Ibanez…just sayin.
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Does anyone remember how agonizing it would be to see Abreu take a walk when you really needed him to get a hit? I love Pat, but its the same story. OBP is great for the objective observer, but you pay the guys in the middle to hit that close pitch, not take it. This does not mean that I am an archaic rbi/ba guy. It just means that I watched the games and hated seeing Pat or Abreu get up with runners on and look for the walk.
We really are being over critical of this move. Ever since the Cardenas trade we have all been way too negative of everything…even though we became the WORLD CHAMPIONS OF BASEBALL.
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I’m not bashing the move so much Ed…though statistically its a bit odd all things considered. Here’s how the deal works out shorterm:
1. We get right handed power or average from another position (3B or C hopefully) and the lineup is then completely balanaced again.
2. UC doesn’t bat them Utley/Howard/Ibanez in the 3/4/5 begging opposition managers to develop the popular TRI-LOOGY solution to later inning situations.
3. Ibanez continues his rare late renaissance as a player and contributes above average offense at least through the first 2 years of this deal…which is very possible. If he is relegated to a platoon role by year 3 so be it.
On the other side, everyone needs to lay off Burrell as he was a solid member of the team for over 7 seasons and helped us win a World Series.
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Neduol Caz ,
IF Burrell had accepted arbitration in 09 and ended up getting $15 million, the same situation would exist in 2010. The Phillies would then have to decide on offering Burrell arbitration again. If they decide not, it is likely that a comparible replacement will cost more than $15 million for the next 2 years.
Add in that Werth will also become a FA in 2010 and they would be looking for 2 OF replacements.
Now maybe Taylor, Mayberry, or Brown will be ready to take over 1 OF spot but it is unlikely that 2 of those 3 will be ready to become regular players by then.
Again, I am not a huge fan of the signing (I do think it is a slight upgrade) but it isn’t the disaster it is being made out to be. Seems like some have Amaro pegged as a management tool and are looking for something to jump on.
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@NEPP – I don’t see 1 happening, 2 will vary from day to day and 3 is possible.
@3up – The point is one more year of Burrell would have been ideal in 1. repeat of walk year motivation 2. a year might be what we need to determine if Taylor, Brown or Marberry can fill in for 2010
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I don’t understand why everyone is so grumpie about Ibanez and “having another lefty hitter.” Last I checked there were a lot more righty pitcher in baseball, which means having more lefties is a good thing…..we also have backup righty hitters if need be. Putz and KRod are both righties who I think we will light up, especially with KRod losing his fast ball speed. Bring it on NY Melts.
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respectfully Ed
The only trade that mattered in the long run was Lidge
Happ could of taken Blanton’s starts or another small trade
Gillick”s best pickups were free
The Mutts and the situation in Florida and Atlanta tight budget
had as much or more to do with the Phils winning as
anything they did except rob MR. ED(the talking jackass)
This trade is ok a fine rbi guy lousy 2 strike hitter just way
too long a contract. but he could be traded next year as
a DH. I an a way this trade makes Donald and Marson
even more valuable for their steady stats
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Minaya and the Mutts may have done it again Putz’s
stats in 2008 reflect a huge difference in 0-0 and 0-1
count where the pitchers stuff is most in question
almost unhittable in 2007
well a putz in 2008
Note: most dont realize 0-1 is a batters count because he can
free swing since neither a walk or stike out is in play(check it out if you dont believe me)
GO MUTTS
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murray you had it right until you decided to let werth go next year and trade myers.nepp completely agree about burrell. for all of you he will go down with del ennis and luzinski as the phils best left fielder. a note most bb historians agree that run production is the best indicator of a hitters value. run pro. is rbi,s plus runs scored minus hr,s. the highest in mlb history was gehrig in 1931. .301. #2 ruth .292 #3 cobb .288. if you want to compare these greats with other hofers try mays, williams, bonds. pulhols probably todays best hitter averages app..200 howards great year of 06 he was below .200. just shows you how great those guys were. gehrig the only time in bb history with rp of over .300
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the argument that burrell has more power than ibanez is weak. he has a career slugging % of 0.10 higher and he has played in cbp and in better line-ups. pat has about 5-7 more hr per year but has about the same amount of doubles less than ibanez. net, net that is not something that we gave up in this swap.
what we gained, is a player that will be in the line-up more. look at the at bat difference between the two. even taking into account pat’s extra walks, it is striking. the significance is that pat goes in long stretches of slumps and gets benched.
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i dont seem to recall the many benchings, only his replacment in the 8th or 9th, which considering his arm strenght was ridiculous. for taguchi or brunlett? golson yes but not those 2 slugs.
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Don’t measure power by just looking at slugging %, because slugging % takes batting average into account, and batting average is nearly useless. Use ISO
Burrell: .228 career, .257 in 2008, .246 in 2007
Ibanez: .186 career, .186 in 2008, .189 in 2007
Ibanez has a decent slugging % because he hits for a higher average. But Burrell’s OB% is higher than Ibanez, and over the last 3 years, decently higher. Thats much more important. Outs are the most important commodity in baseball, and Burrell makes a lot less than Ibanez. He also hits for much more power.
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“Old School”- Ibanez
“Stats that make sense”- Burrell
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Payroll – Ibanez..
Nostalgic fans – Burrell
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Ed —
You picked up that talk from the hatas. Abreu and Burrell did not go up looking to take a walk, but like good hitters, they also certainly did not go up looking to make an out on a bad pitcher’s pitch. If your 3 – 4 – 5 hitters feel compelled to swing at balls, then you are in trouble, because with a pitcher with any kind of stuff, he will get most hitters out if they choose to swing at balls. The problem when Pat was slumping was not hat he didn’t swing at the close pitches, but that he swung at too many balls.
Walks are good, wherever in the lineup. A probably with Phillies media’s story line comes from the era when the team never seemed to be able to provide any kind of talent in the 6 – 8 slot. With our recent lineups, the Abreu and Burrell performances have been quite good.
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Rodeo,
And if Mayberry and Taylor aren’t ready by 2010? Now your stuck in a situation with 3 FA OFs (Burrell, Werth, Jenkins) and both Victorino and Howard in the final year of arbitration. Now there is a payroll/roster disaster waiting to happen.
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3up3
I don’t see what is so awful about that 2010 scenario, or why having Ibanez helps the situation. Jenkins departing is a blessing, not a curse. The Burrell situation is unchanged. Either we won our 1-year gamble on arb and repeat it, or we happily wave good-bye, offering him a year’s contract at an appropriate salary if it meets our needs. Werth could be a problem, but that will be a problem regardless. A problem that could be made far harder to solve by having $23 mill committed to an Ibanez who is no longer major league quality in 2010 and 2011. Last year for Vic and Howard approaching. True, but having 11.5 mill in a bad contract for the aging Ibanez in 2011 sure doesn’t help. I think we control Howard for 2011, anyway, not sure about Vic. But having a big-contract 39-year old on board doesn’t help in either case. Those who just assume he’ll be good at age 39 are betting really long odds.
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@ 3up – Jenkins free agency at this point is the least of anyone’s concerns, so forget him.
Also, that would be Howard’s 2nd to last arby year as he got started a year earlier being a ‘super 2′ and this is Vic’s 1st year of arbitration so he’ll have one left as well.
If Mayberry and Taylor aren’t ready by 2010 then maybe the expiration date on this nucleus will have past. That’s also Rollins’ last year on his contract. It might be time to take things a different direction. Even the Yankees have to rebuild from time to time.
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2010 I will disappointed If Jenkins is on the 2009 roster
Clearly they completely lost faith in him
ab r h hr rbi
Pre-All Star 232 23 55 7 24 .237
Post-All Star 61 17 2 5 7 .279
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I can’t believe the interest this signing has generating. I can’t say I completely disagree with Keith Law – it’s probably not the best signing and it’s tough losing the pick, but I’m not devastated by this either. The alternative, DeRosa for some horrible combination of Donald, Happ and Carrasco scared the living pants off me. Compared to that disaster, this is just a detour. The key prospects are still there, at least for now.
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I think the Phils have Rollins for an option year in 2011. However, if he plays even marginally well this year, I expect him to negotiate an extension for a couple of years. Let’s be honest, the team is already planning for life without Ryan Howard, part of that planning is keeping and growing the nucleus of other players. They can’t really replace Ryan, but they can get another first baseman that can hit. Another Hamels, Rollins or Utley will be unbelievablly hard to replace at any level, so I expect the team to make every effort to keep those players. They are going to have to pay through the nose for Hamels, but that guy is going to the Hall of Fame if he doesn’t get hurt and it would be next to impossible to replace him. He’s that good.
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I think you’re right on the option Catch.
The issue is Burrell could have been had for that contract and would have been a better move. It’s change for the sake of change. I can’t wait to see how people feel about Ibanez in 12 months. At least at $10 million per he’ll be easily moved in a year.
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Catch 22: I agree DeRosa for our good prospects would be worse than Ibanez signing.
Kind of pitiful we are talking those alternatives.
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Point with Jenkins isn’t that he will be missed but rather that the Phillies would have a need to find 3 OFs via FA or trade during the 2010 off-season.
IMO, Ibanez is equal to Burrell in ability so he fills one of those 3 spots for about $5 million less than what Burrell will cost in 2010 (assuming he has another season similar to 2008). That $5 million is enough to replace Jenkin’s role on this team, hopefully with someone more productive and doesn’t require the team to waste additional resourses that are needed elsewhere (Myers FA, Hamel’ arbitration, Werth FA, etc.)
Now if you are of the opinion that Ibanez is significally worse than Burrell, then this argument won’t make much sense to you.
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Burrell could have been had for that contract? You know something the rest of us don’t?
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one more note on K. Law’s opinion on Burrell/Ibanez.
He has Burrell ranked as his #11 FA and ends his write-up with this tidbit
“He’s probably two or three years from a forced move to the DH spot, where his bat becomes a little less valuable. If he’s really a .385-.400 OBP guy, he could hit second or third in many lineups. But if the loss of bat speed and the subsequent OBP drop are permanent, then he’s more of a five/six hitter.”
Regardless of you opinion of Pat (or K. Law), no one in their right mind would have Burrrell hitting 2nd or 3rd in their lineup.
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Second or third! In a beer league.
I dont want what K Law was drinking. Especially with the Phils need to further develop their running game.
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Burrell’s power output has never been in question. It’s his ability to drive in runs. When he’s hit 280 during a season he drives in a 100 runs, he hits 250 he does not. There is no reason a guy hitting 33 hrs shouldn’t be driving in a 100 runs. The question isn’t whether Ibanez’s fielding is better then Burrell’s, it’s that Burrell’s fielding is and has been bad.
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Rube missed the boat on this one. Now 2 for 3. Hate losing picks. Lossing picks on aging free agents is the reason why we don’t have someone from the Pharm to plug in left field now!
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Well, they signed Chan Ho Park for 2.5m, that sounds like a starter…
where is this going, good bye Moyer? I’d put the odds at 50-50, this guy gives up HR’s like it’s going out of style. I don’t believe CH. Park is a type A/B free agent and if I know Moyer is type A. How would that work with signing Ibanez? Does losing a Type A and gaining a Type A wash?
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So, they picked up Chan Ho Park, not a type A/B free agent, but here is my thought, at 2.5m contract, and the talk that he will be a starter, may spell the end to Jamie Moyer.
What is the rule when losing a type A free agent (*moyer) and signing one (Ibanez). Is the gain/loss considered a wash and we lose nothing regarding the draft?
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just saw the news conference with utley and as ive said hell he ready for opening day. reading between the lines from amaro. moyer good signing,park in the pen and happ in the pen. my impression is carrasco has the inside track on the 5th starter spot from what amaro said. also he mentioned donald twice in high terms also brunlett, but my impression is donald will be the 1st guy off the bench. not mentioned marson. probably because of paulino. only negative if i read it right.
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catch , ” we have to find a hitter to replace howard”, we can dig up stargell, mccovey, killabrew, or maybe even gehrig. im sure that brown or taylor are ready in 2011 to hit 50 hr,s and 140 rbi,s. ive never seen a future hof,er taken so much for granted. i know, it,s not us but the phillies.well its up to us to apply pressure that we are not subject to the ” curse of ryan”. i dont believe the phillies are greasing the skids to get rid of ryan.i know in the past they have been penny wise and pound foolish. but i think they finally get it.howard deserves every bit of 25 mil. ITS THE GOING MARKET FOR HOF,ERS.TO RUBEN HE HITS A HR EVERY 11.5 AB,S RUTH 12. HE AVERAGES .8.5 RBIS PER GAME JIMMIE FOXX .8.5
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I can’t agree that Howard is a $25 mil per year player. His lack of defense, his BA and his strikeouts will keep him from getting that number. It may sound strange and I don’t think it’s ever done but I would offer him a Front loaded 5 year deal with a club option for a sixth $20-$18-$16-$15-$14 option $22. He gets a limited no trade clause like Rollins has and that’s it.
Ryan’s a HOF no doubt but against his peers he’s not a $25mil/yr player. That’s rarified air and all one needs to do to confirm that is to look at the players that have received such a contract.
The last thing you want to do as a GM is get caught up in the emotion of WS and shackle yourself with a Helton type contract or a Giambi type contract where the players salary at the tail end of his production doesn’t allow you to make moves that would improve your club.
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I think this is all part of a long-term plan that the Phillies have had for years. They spent a lot on the 2008 draft because they never intended to offer Burrell or Moyer arbitration. However, they will offer Werth and Madson arb in 2010, so they’ll have extra picks. This is all just news to us.
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dmar you say that howards lack of defense,so,s and ba. prevent him from being a 25 mil. player. check r jackson., killabrew, stargell, and mccovey and tell me they were not worth 25 mil. all similar players in so,s ba, and defense all dominant hofers. if need be i can continue with the list. kiner f.robinson,s sosa. except for his defense m. schmidt.
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I still don’t understand how this whole giving and taking of draft picks works, is anyone willing to explain it to me, I wish PP could put togeather a detailed article about exactly how this works.
Based on this article we lose our #1 pick for Ibanez, which fine, I get it. That said, we retain Moyer, so as far as I understand that has no effect, and finally, the last “classified” free agent we either sign or lose is Pat Burrell.
PUNCH LINE – Why don’t the signing of Ibanez and losing of Burrell wash?
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Supra, its a simple explanation.
You only receive draft pick compensation if you offer arbitration to the player, or if the player is signed before a team has to formally decide to offer arbitration or not. The Phillies did not offer arbitration to Burrell or Moyer, hence they could not receive picks. The Mariners offered Ibanez arbitration, so they are entitled to the compensation picks.
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