Monthly Archives: November 2008

Will Donald’s bat play at 3B?

Other Stuff

The reports on Jason Donald this fall remain the same. He’d be fine at shortstop, but he doesn’t have prototypical power to play third base, and he’d be more valuable to the Phillies in a trade. Well, lets consider the composite batting lines for the 3B position over the last few years

2008: .266/.336/.436
2007: .273/.342/.443
2006: .276/.347/.458
2005: .270/.338/.435

Of course, this line considers all players who appeared at 3B, its not a standard for players who started at the position and played a large chunk of games. So to do that, I looked at all 3B who had at least 400 PA in 2008. The line, when considering these 27 players, is

.271/.355/.457

This tells us a bit more, its not radically higher, but it is a bit higher. So then we have to figure out what kind of hitter Jason Donald is in the majors.

Career: .297/.384/.459
2008: .307/.391/.497

Donald’s 2008 was his best minor league season, betting his numbers across the board, while doing it in AA. Is he a .280/.360/.460 hitter in the majors? If he is, then he’d be a league average 3B. I guess time will tell.

Minor League Free Agents

Transactions

Some on this site get excited about the draft….yawn. Some get excited about prosepects….overrated. The true minor league fans get excited about the journeymen! Each year Baseball America releases a list of the minor league free agents and this year is no different. The complete list can be found here, but the Phillies minor league free agents are listed below:

Philadelphia Phillies (30)
RHP: Jason Anderson (AAA), Matt Childers (AAA), Steve Green (AAA), Travis Minix (AAA), Justin Pope (AA), Scott Vander Weg (Hi A)
LHP: Brian Mazone (AAA), Stephen Randolph (AAA), Matt Smith (Hi A), R.J. Swindle (AAA)
C: Anderson Alvarez (VSL), Kevin Nelson (AA), John Suomi (AAA), Scott Thomas (AA)
1B: John Urick (Hi A)
2B: Carlos Leon (Hi A), Steve Smith (AAA)
3B: Mike Cervenak (AAA), Brian Finegan (Hi A), Orlando Guevara (AA), Joey Hammond (AA), Brennan King (AAA), Anthony Mansolino (Hi A)
SS: Mike Rouse (AAA)
OF: Jake Blalock (AA), T.J. Bohn (AAA), Jesus Granado (VSL), Jon Knott (AAA), Mike Spidale (AA), Brandon Watson (AAA)

In addition, BA mentioned JD Durbin (RHP), Chris Snelling (OF), and Travis Blackley (LHP) have also filed for free agency.

Also, the Phils thought so highly of Jason MacKintosh (LHP), Kevin Mahar (OF), and Rich Thompson (OF) that they resigned them before they could reach the open market.

Anyone the Phils need to resign? Any guys out there who should fill out the IronPigs roster in 09?

Initial look at Rule 5 draft

Rule 5 Draft

As you know, the Rule 5 draft is next month, and the Phillies have had some success in that area, notably Shane Victorino in recent years. I believe the deadline to set 40 man rosters, ie, protect players, is sometime at the end of November. Here’s how things look right now

* The 40 man on the Phillies site doesn’t appear updated. 38 players on the 40 man roster, 2 open slots. This includes Burrell, Tad Iguchi and Jamie Moyer, who I believe have already filed for free agency, as well as Rudy Seanez, who isn’t coming back. Scott Eyre is also a FA and listed. So we’re at like 33, but its likely Eyre is coming back, as is Moyer. Burrell is less certain.

* The prospects currently protected; Bisenius, Carpenter, Happ, Mathieson, Jaramillo, Marson, Harman, and Golson.

* The rules, in terms of number of years a player can play before being placed on the 40 man relates to year drafted and age when drafted. 18 year olds (so basically prep players) must be placed on the 40 man after their 5th season, 19 year olds or older (college guys, essentially), must be placed on after their 4th season. I believe that’s accurate, based on what I’ve found before. So for the sake of the Phillies, we’re looking at guys who were drafted/signed out of high school or Latin America and debuted in 2004, and college guys drafted in 2005. By my count, that means

Carlos Carrasco, RHP (signed in 2003, debuted in 2004, which is when his contract started)
Brett Harker, RHP (5th rd, 2005, College of Charleston)
Jeremy Slayden, OF (8th rd, 2005, Georgia Tech)
Clay Harris, INF (9th rd, 2005, LSU)
Pat Overholt, RHP (22nd rd, Santa Clara)

Its pretty obvious why the Phillies sent Slayden and Overholt to Arizona. If they perform well, they are likely to be protected, if they struggle against better prospects, they might be left unprotected, depending on the number of spots needed for trades and the like. Its obvious Carrasco will be protected, the others, I’m not so sure.

Arizona Fall League

8. Arizona Fall League

Mesa split their 4 games since Wednesday, with Lou Marson making his Fall League debut fresh off celebrating the Phils championship . Marson saw action in 3 games, as designated hitter in each. He was 2-10, with a run scored, 3 RBI’s, a double and a triple. He should see some action behind the plate this week. Tuffy Goosewich was behind the plate on Wednesday and went 1-5 with an RBI, and it hitting .263 in the Fall League thus far. Quintin Berry was in RF on Wednesday and Thursday and Center on Saturday, going 3-8, with 3 runs scored, 4 walks and 2 caught stealing. Berry is hitting .342 with a .392 OBP in his 67 at bats. He has been caught stealing in 3 of his 8 attempts, a percentage that must improve. Jeremy Slayden played Friday and Saturday, both in RF, and went 2-6, with a run and an RBI. He continues to be consistent at the plate and is hitting .276 with a HUGE 20 RBI’s in his 76 at bats thus far. He must improve his plate discipline as he has walked a miniscule 2 times in those 76 at bats. FInally, Jason Donald played third on Wednesday and SS on Thursday, with his bat cooling off, going 1-9 with 4 strikeouts over those 2 games. Even so, his average stands at .400, with an OBP of .458 in 75 AB’s. His OPS is an awesome 1.151.

Pitchers seeing action included Pat Overholt, who threw 2 innins on Friday, giving up a run on 3 hits, He also walked 2. In his 9 appearances thus far he is 0-0 with a 6.39 ERA. Perhaps most concerning is his 8 walsk surrendered. If he is going to have any modicum of success, his control is key. Sergio Escalona also saw action on Friday, going 1.2 innings, giving up a run on a hit. he struck out 2. The 24 year old is 0-0 with a 5.25 ERA in the Fall, with a 1.25 WHIP, a good number. Tyson Brummett, who has struggled out of the bullpen all Fall, got the start on Saturday and went 2 scoreless innings, allowing only one baserunner on a hit in the 2nd inning. He struck out 3. Brummett is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in his 9 appearances (8 in relief).

Fall League Update

8. Arizona Fall League

Mesa lost two of their last three, with the Phillies prospects following the pattern of their hitters having some success and their pitchers continuing to struggle. Quintin Berry started 2 of the last 3 games in CF and was 2-10 with a double, RBI and was caught stealing. He is currently hitting .339. Tuffy Goosewich saw action behind the plate on Saturday and Monday, going 2-9 with 2 runs scored. He did have a passed ball in Mondays’ contest, and is hitting .286. Jeremy Slayden was in RF on Monday and Tuesday, going 2-9 with 2 runs, a double, and an RBI. His average in the Fall stands at .271. Finally, Jason Donald continued swinging a hot bat, playing in all three games and going 7-14, with 2 runs, a double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI’s. He was caught stealing on Saturday, a game in which he also committed an error playing second base. He played SS on Monday and 2B again on Tuesday.

The pitchers struggles continued. First, Tyson Brummett pitched both Saturday and Tuesday, going an inning in each, yielding a run on 2 hits, in his 2 innings of work. His ERA stands at 7.88. Andrew Carpenter started on Tuesday and went 3 innings, giving up 3 runs, on five hits. He walked 3 and struck out five. The runs came on 2 homers, and his Fall ERA stands at 5.29. Pat Overholt was rocked in relief on Tuesday giving up 5 runs on 4 hits, in his inning, skyrocketing his ERA to 6.75. Sergio Escalona did not fare much better going 2 innings and giving up 3 runs on 3 hits.

Upcoming schedule/Question 1

Scheduling

Just a brief upate here, and then the first of a series of questions as we adresss the farm system. I’ll be out of town through the end of the weekend, and when I return I’ll get back into the swing of things. I’m planning to start the Reader Top 30 in the beginning of December, which will coincide with the end of the Arizona Fall League. Last year’s incarnation was a success, and it will be a fun exercise again this year, especially since we have more regular readers and contributors. I’m also going to get in touch with the contributors from this past season and try to figure out what next year will look like, and then I’ll search for new correspondants if they are needed. So, with that said, here is question #1.

With the Phillies winning the World Series, and with Carlos Ruiz seemingly handling the pitching staff in the manner he did, what does 2009 look like for Lou Marson?

State your case in the comments, and be respectful of the opinions of others.

Phillies promote Amaro, lose Arbuckle

Other Stuff

The guy who is largely responsible for overseeing the drafting of the nucleus of this team was allowed to walk out the door, and baseball lifer Ruben Amaro Jr was promoted to General Manager today. At least he was only given a 3 year deal. I’m too tired to rant about how bad a decision I think this is, but until he screws things up in a big way, I guess I won’t complain. I’m assuming I’ll have material by February. Then again, I was seemingly wrong about Chuck LaMar as well, so who knows.

Fall League Update

8. Arizona Fall League

The Mesa Solar Sox continued very hot, winning all 4 games since the last update, with their bats continuing very hot. Phillies prospects continue making large contributions to the teams success. Jeremy Slayden played in 3 of the 4 games starting twice in RF and once in LF. He went a combined 5-13, with 3 runs, 4 doubles, and 4 RBI’s. He is hitting .279 in the Fall League with a .752 OPS. An area that Slayden can improve his his batting eye, as he has only one walk in 61 at bats. Quintin Berry continued very hot starting 3 of the 4 games in CF. He went 6-13, with a run, and his 5th stolen base. He is hitting a lofty .367. Tuffy Goosewich caught last Wednesdays game (starter was Andrew Carpenter) and went 1-3 with an RBI, is his 2nd game of the fall. Jason Donald saw action as the DH in Thursdays win, and played short in the game Friday. Donald was 2-6 with 2 runs, and a double in the 2 games. Donald is hitting .423 with a .492 on base percentage and has committed only two errors, going from position to postion in the field.

Andrew Carpenter started to turn himself around on Wednesday, going 5 scoreless innings. He gave up 3 hits, didnt walk a batter and struck out two in his five every effective innings. He ERA now stands at 4.50 in the Fall, and his WHIP is 1.29. Pat Overholt, Sergio Escalona, and Tyson Brummett each added a scoreless inning over the last several days.