Thoughts on the Golson/Mayberry trade

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Ok, so I’ve taken some time to digest the trade. My initial reaction? Good trade for the Phillies. Just glancing at the comments of the previous posting, I’m kind of shocked that so many people don’t like the deal. But I have my reasons for liking it, so lets go through them one at a time. Click below for more..

Before we dig into the specifics on both players, lets address one big point. We’re talking about a trade of prospects. Thats pretty rare in baseball, you generally don’t see teams that trade prospects. Jon Daniels has a mixed track record in Texas, and Rube is making his first trade, so this kind of out of the box thinking is promising. And again, both guys are prospects, so you’re forced to kind of guess a bit, as there is no established major leaguer to evaluate. That makes defining value a bit tougher. But lets try, that’s why we are here.

We’ll start with what we gave up in Golson. In 5 pro seasons (4.5 really, counting his short season debut), Greg has produced this line

2,272 PA: .265/.309/.406 — 5.4% BB — 27.4% K — .141 ISO — 31.8% XBH — 120 SB (78%)

His days of being labeled a “top prospect” realistically ended with his disappointing 2006, where he hit .233/.277/.374 overall, despite a late burst at Clearwater. Golson offered the tantalizing package of speed and power, but he never managed to put the package together. He’s consistently stolen 25-30 bases over the last 4 seasons at a reasonable rate, but hasn’t put together a 40 SB season, which might indicate he’d have elite SB potential at the next level. Hit hit a combined 46 HR in his 4.5 seasons in the minors, including 13, 15, and 13 the last three seasons. Reports on his defense have been largely positive, the exception coming this season when reports were more mixed.

So if we step back and look at his body of work, we have to ask ourselves the big question. What exactly is Golson going to become? 2008 represented his age 22 season, so its not that he’s at the end of the line in terms of development, but what are we realistically going to expect him to become? His biggest issue when he was drafted was his inability to pick up the spin on offspeed pitches. 5 years later, that remains his biggest issue. Is that an issue that anyone here sees him resolving anytime soon? The raw power has not translated to games. Some guys will post a pedestrian on base percentage but make up for it with legit, usable game power. Golson’s power hasn’t really emerged. The other big variable is his position. If he is truly a plus defensive outfielder, that value is maximized in centerfield. The dropoff from CF to the corners, especially to LF, is drastic in terms of value. The Phillies have Victorino in CF, and that isn’t likely to change anytime soon. Which means Golson would have been shifted to a corner. With Jayson Werth in RF for at least one more season, pending free agency, Golson would have been put in LF in 2009. But would he be starting? The Phillies have Geoff Jenkins and Matt Stairs under contract for 2009, both more experienced and more expensive players. Golson likely would have been used as a defensive replacement/pinch runner. And how much value do we place on those types of players? Could he emerge as more in 2010? His one moderate strength, which I’ll touch on with Mayberry, is that he hit lefties better than righties in 2008, .818 OPS v .765 against RHP. Short term, Golson was a 4th/5th OF. Long term? In my opinion, the same.

Now lets transition to the player we got in return, outfielder John Mayberry Jr. Mayberry’s dad, John Mayberry Sr, was a 15 year major leaguer, posting a .253/.360/.439 line. His son was taken in the first round out of Stanford in 2005. Mayberry, like our own Stanford product Michael Taylor, is an impressive physical specimen, measured at 6’5, 230. Like Golson, his career hasn’t really taken off to date. He posted a moderately impressive .268/.358/.479 line in the very pitcher friendly Midwest League in his full season debut, but he’s been very average the last 2 years in A+, AA and AAA. In his 3.5 seasons, he’s compiled this line

1,948 PA: .255/.330/.472 — 8.6% BB — 21.6% K — .217 ISO — 45.0% XBH — 42 SB (79%)

Mayberry has displayed a better walk rate, he’s struck out less, and he’s shown much more raw power, while stealing fewer bases. On the face of it, looking at these numbers, Mayberry is the preferable prospect. Of course he’s 2 years older than Golson, so you deduct points there. Defensively, Mayberry has split time between RF and LF, playing more left than right in 2008. Lets line up their 2008 seasons before we move on

Golson: 470 PA — .282/.333/.434 — .275 SecA — 7.2% BB — 27.7% K — 23 SB (5 CS)
Mayberry, 2A/3A: 565 PA — .264/.317/.480 — .295 SecA — 6.0% BB — 18.1% K — 10 SB (3 CS)

Golson’s got the edge in OB%, but its basically driven by the 18 point gap in batting average. Mayberry again displayed more power, and even though Golson stole 13 more bags, Mayberry’s SecA is 20 points higher. Golson, of course, was playing CF, so he outranks Mayberry on the defensive spectrum. But here is the reason I like Mayberry in 2009 and beyond. Mayberry crushed lefthanded pitching in 2008

.357/.398/.696 (vs .240/.296/.420 v RHP)

He was really bad against lefties in 2007, but he was really bad overall. In his quality 2006 campaign, he hit .277/.383/.462 against lefties, compared to .258/.347/.466 v RHP. I’m not saying that Mayberry is just going to step right into left field in 2009. But I think the Phillies were clearly looking for someone who could hit lefties, because currently our two outfielders who will see time in left field, Stairs and Jenkins, can’t hit lefties at all.

So, you could draw a number of conclusions here. Both players had to be protected in the upcoming Rule 5 draft. So clearly the respective GM’s were looking to give both players a change of scenery. The Phillies are going to have some budgeting issues in 2009 because of a truck load of arbitration raises due to Hamels, Victorino, Blanton, Howard and others, as well as re-signing Jamie Moyer. When they are done re-upping their current guys, there isn’t going to be 20M left to spend on Manny Ramirez, and they have to figure out what to do with dead weight in Adam Eaton. Because money will be tight, and because there really aren’t a ton of righthanded power threats available via free agency, I’m pretty sure the Phillies looked at this is trying to acquire value for a guy that didn’t have a whole lot of it. The odds of Golson ever becoming a star are very slim. The odds of him becoming a regular aren’t all that great either. Michael Bourn, who is Golson without the power, was really poor for Houston this year, and Bourn had much better plate discipline than Golson. So while he may have been useful as a defensive replacement/pinch runner, Mayberry offers similar upside, but as a position player in a platoon in left field, with real usable power, and perhaps even more down the line.

Bottom line, I think Rube is 1 for 1, and I’m pretty happy about this deal. Best of luck to Greg Golson, and welcome aboard John Mayberry.

62 thoughts on “Thoughts on the Golson/Mayberry trade”

  4. I don’t know much about projecting players, but does a line of
    .357/.398/.696 aa/aaa against lefties make you a legit mlb platoon option for 2009? If not, how much more do we need to see against lefties before the answer becomes yes?

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  7. Good analysis as always, James.

    Mayberry seems like a decent enough gamble, and while we all hope Golson does well, I don’t think anyone was expecting a major league regular at this point. Mayberry could wind up being a useful half of a platoon. From what I read, he can do that by: making sure his swing doesn’t get too long, and trying not to be too pull-happy.

    As you said, credit to Amaro for outside-the-box thinking on this one. I’m still curious to see what else Golson may have fetched in a trade, but all in all, it’s not a bad return. Best of luck to Greg in the Texas organization.

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  9. It was painful last year watching Golson trying to hit. His swing reminded me of someone trying to use a fly swatter to hit a baseball. This was a great trade.

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  10. I would classify this move in a similar vein to that of some of the other Phillies moves in the Gillick era… Let’s throw a bunch of high-upside stuff on the wall and see what sticks. Some of it did, some of it didn’t, but enough of it did to fill in around the strong core in place. Hopefully this trade will be part of the same.

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  11. It’s hard to lose the kind speed Golson has. It is a weapon onto itself. I have no doubt Golson will be a very productive player down the road.

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  12. One thing that jumps out for me is the Stanford thing. It looks like the Phillies helped Taylor get rid of the Stanford swing, so perhaps their thinking was that they could “fix” Mayberry too.

    I’m fine with it. After 5 years of GG, he is what he is. Maybe the Rangers can fix him. It looks like an upside for upside trade.

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  14. The Rangers already “fixed” Mayberry’s swing. They had him on a 1500 ab’s time line at which they expected him to finally get “it”.

    As far as where Mayberry falls on the Phils list, lets just say right now the Rangers prospect gurus already have Golson around 25 or so while they had Mayberry around 30.

    It might just be the shinny new toy syndrome though.

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  15. Mayberry is going to be 25 in about a month, which pretty much means he’s got to show something immediately to be looked at as a guy with any value. In the most recent season, Mayberry had a few more home runs, but had a lower OBP, and doesn’t have Golson’s speed, defensive ability, or development time left. It seems like we just gave up on Golson’s potential for a guy who will probably be a fourth OF at best and isn’t much of a “safer” bet. I cant say im a fan of this deal.

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  16. I like this move personally, I just don’t see how people don’t like this deal. Golson can’t hit or do anything well, and is at least 1 or 2 years from even being on a big league roster. Yes he has tools, but at a certain point you need to use those tools.

    Also I’d venture to say Mayburry has close to the upside Golson has and is closer to reaching said upside.

    I think this is a nice move for Amaro.

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  17. Mayberry is rated well with defense…this isn’t Pat Burrell jr. we traded for here, the reports are that he is an athletic beast.

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  18. as ive said before golson could not tell a #1 from a#2. other than that he was great. if mayberry is anything like his old man great deal. positive hes rh istill dont like 6’5″ of . looks like bat off the bench. good chance taking by amaro. the most important thing now is utley getting back and donald playing 3rd.

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  19. I saw John Jr. in the Cape League about 5 years ago. He’s a massive speciman. It seemed like every pro scout in America was keeping tabs on him. He was playing 1st base at the time. I remember him bombing a HR and scaring the dickens out of pitchers.

    He’s 5 years older and maybe not the monster people thought he’d be but he looks very serviceable. I was nervous about Golson. He was our closest OF “prospect” and I wasn’t sure he was going to be anything more than a PR & defensive replacement.

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  21. On another subject, the battle for second base is setting up as a three way battle between Donald, Brunlett, and Iguchi. Iguchi is still part of the Phillie organization as he was outrighted to Lehigh Valley on November 13.

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  23. Wow. I love this trade, even if it is not for the typical reasons… First, NE PA PHILLY, Iguchi is not Phillies property, he is a free agent. Secondly, I think we all need to control our expectations on Donald. I am a big fan of his, and feel, in time, that he will be an above average MLB infielder. With that said, he still has not had a single at-bat above AA. I can definitely see him being a success this year directly out of ST, but I can also see him struggling. I feel that people are assuming that Donald will continue on to the bigs without a single hitch in his development, which most likely will not be the case.
    Anyway, back to the trade. I was never a huge fan of Golson’s. I just feel that he will never reach that amazing potential that he has had since we drafted him out of Texas. To me, Golson will be a fourth outfielder with amazing speed and defensive capabilities. A fourth outfielder with speed is simply not valuable to a MLB team. The position, a speedy defensive OF with pinch-running capabilities is important, but the player himself is not. This position is as easily replaceable as any other in baseball. Also, while fast, Golson has never been that succesful as an actual base stealer. I am not sure about his general baserunning ability. On the flipside, Mayberry may also end up being just a fourth outfielder, I do not know much about him, but atleast he will be a fourth outfielder with value. By that, I mean that he will be a fourth outfielder who is in the big leagues because he can hit a baseball, even if it is just against lefthanders, play good defense, play both corner outfield positions, and not be a liability on the basepaths. To me, a player like this has value, as they are not as easily replaceable as speedy outfielders. The fact that Mayberry is cost-controlled (yes, I know Golson is as well), makes him just that more valuable. That is a small part of why I like this trade for the Phils.
    More Importantly, I really like this trade because of the outside the box thinking that was displayed by Amaro. It is such a rarity to trade prospects for prospects, and I love the fact that Amaro was willing to “break the mold” so to speak. Also, I like that Amaro traded Golson, a key piece to the Wade administration. I think it shows that he isn’t attached to pieces from the past, and hopefully, it shows his understanding of a sunk cost. All in all, I think it is a great first move for our new GM.

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  25. Readers of this blog know how I feel about Golson. I have been one of his most ardent supporters. I understand that he still has warts, but I believe his plusses out weigh his negatives. I look at what he did against Atlanta at the end of the season when he manufactured the winning run. that is a unique skill that very, very few players display at the MLB level especially against a catcher like McCann.

    The fair counter point on this trade is that Mayberry is more likely to help us in the near term. He will give us a platoon-able player with some pop should Pat leave, which is looking highly likely. I also think that Mayberry’s make-up (if he is like his dad) is much better suited for Philly than Golson’s (if he truly cares what blogs write about him, wait until section 700 yells horrible things about his kids, wife, mother after striking out as we all know they do). We also have some depth at OF prospects and I think that Taylor and Brown are better prospects at this point. So if you look at the deal, you say, it doesn’t hurt us in the long run (Taylor and Brown) and could help us in the short run (more options when Pat leaves). If you don’t believe in Golson, you conclude that Amaro sold high (good year at AA and futures game).

    I’ll miss you Greg. I wish you luck. I hope you become an all star and enjoy doing it in your home state. But I am a Phillies fan first so I got to say that I agree with this deal. A good move. RA, you are 1-0 in my book too. Now go get Peavy and I will be really excited.

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  26. For a first deal from Amaro, I like it. Amaro scares me, but the fact that I think he won (obviously hard to quantify today) the trade, makes me slightly less scared. Speedy, defensive outfielders that can’t hit are easy to replace – we had Byrd – Chavez – Roberson – Bourne – Golson. Players who can come in and pop a long ball or platoon are harder to find – Dobbs, Werth, Stairs. Really it shows why Gillick overall deserves a lot of credit for making the bottom of the roster a lot better. Mayberry could possibly be the platoon outfielder this year or at least next year when we are losing a lot of the outfield.

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  27. Correct, Mayberry is eligible for the Rule-5 so he would need to be kept on the 40-man.

    Laxtonto, I think it’s fairly clear the Rangers didn’t completely “fix” Mayberry. I’m just hoping the Phillies have soimeone with insight on how Taylor got fixed that would be able to work with Mayberry.

    I’m not overly concerned about him turning 25. Howard was 25 in ROTY season and Utley was 25 in his first full season in the majors. It happens. At least he’s a RH option for a heavily LH hitting team.

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  28. I don’t know much about Marberry Jr, but I didn’t really care for his old man that much. Aside from, he kind of reminds me of what Jayson Werth was as a prospect. That doesn’t mean he will put it together like Werth has, but the big body with speed, plate discipline and better splits against righties.(as opposed to Werth’s split on lefties) and moved to outfield from the infield.

    I like the deal. At his best, Greg Golson was going to be a Shane Victorino type player… but we already have a Shane Victorino type player, I forget his name though:)

    I agree Mayberry’s a prospect in the same mold as Taylor and Brown. Mayberry can give those guys an extra year to develop and 1 of 3 has a better chance of producing a major league player than 1 of 2.

    Best of luck to Golson, he certainly did nothing to discredit himself while with the phillies. He just never did anything to prove himself to the phillies… other than be born fast and strong.

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  30. Still 37, as Golson off, Mayberry on. Donald doesn’t need to be protected because of lack of professional experience.

    Trade gives me reason to re-examine a couple of recent moves, that I sort of questioned at the time they were made. 1st – the re-signing of Rich Thompson. Since
    Thompson did fairly well , though some might think he is
    past the prospect age, and is pretty much stricltly a CF.
    I thought why sign a guy who could at least be a minor
    league regular, and why would he accept, for an assignment
    in what would likely be a role as a minor league bench
    player? Perhaps the Golson trade has been in the works
    for at least that long.

    2nd incident I question, is Arbuckle’s resignation at the
    appointment of Ruben. Perhaps Ruben didn’t like alot
    of Arbuckle’s moves. (And I believe there is alot of room for
    criticism, as the Philly prospects are along way from the
    best in baseball, despite what some on here seem to
    believe. Doubt they would rate higher than 25th.)
    Perhaps Ruben when coming in , decided to sweep Arbuckle out the door. All decided that Arbuckle would tender
    his resignation , in a huff, in order to save his face.

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  31. To be fair Arbuckle has to be judge after Wade left. That sucker had his hands in everything.
    Berry steps up a notch. He and Sladen hit lefties well. The left right thing doesnt bother me until August or so at which time
    revaluations are in order, prospects evaluated, and end of the year blue light sales will be in order

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  32. james one of the things that I think is being overblown is the payroll. They finish at 103 , taking out burrell, moyer,Taguchi, and Gordon, thome, helms. it right now is at 70 million, count in Utley, myers, rollins, lidge, raises it goes to 83.5 million count raises of 5 million to howard hamels, victorino,werth it goes to 103, now count in blanton moyer,jenkins its about 117 that gives them room to add a high priced leftfielder. also I always thought the breaking ball and off speed stuff separates the players who make it or not. and you kind of touch on it. still has anyone seen Cosart in the instructional league.

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  33. This is my (for anyone who cares) finaly analysis of the trade.

    Can Golson hit breaking balls? No. Can Mayberry? At least from lefties it seems.

    Good trade, Mayberry has at least platoon ML talent, Golson hasn’t even devloped that yet.

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  34. i’m excited to pick up newberry and keep an eye on him in ST. but he will not be the opening day LF (vs glavine?) with no MLB experience and a .316 OBP in AAA. there is obviously a larger move coming. this move just serves to 1) dump goldstein 2) pick up a standford guy 3) add some RH depth

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  35. i definately don’t think ruben is 0-1 but i am not so sure about 1-0 either. this could be a wash, as i could definately see both players being AAAA players

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  36. Whoever said that Golson looked like he was swinging a flyswatter is right on. On breaking balls, he looked totally out of place and, at times, shameful. My only outlook for him was a pinch runner in the playoffs when a base needed to be swiped (remember Dave Roberts for the Sox a few years back!) Maybe he can turn it around, but after all this time and minor improvement, it was a good trade to make.

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  37. no harm no foul
    I was very disappointed when i saw Golsen. He looked like a guy on laughin trying to spook a ballplayer.

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  38. Mayberry may vie for the 5th/6th OF spot with the Phils. If so I see him getting a start 1 to 2 times a week and a bat off the bench. I like this trade as Golson would have been on the bench/team for his speed/defense and not his bat. I also like the fact that Mayberry has a better eye and his K rate was nearly half of Golson’s.

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  39. Great trade because Golson, a great kid, will never hit mlb pitching. Mayberry has a chance to be a specialist righty bat someday. That has some value. At worst, the team had decided, as I expected, to not protect Golson and they would have lost him for nothing.

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  41. He was already on the 40 man roster, wasn’t he? So they would have had to put him through waivers not to protect him. That wasn’t gonna happen.

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  42. I’m curious, and someone may have already answered this.. but what would happen if the Phils simply took Eaton off of the 40 man roster? Could they? He would have to pass through waivers, which would mean that there is an outside chance that some poor fool of a GM might take a chance on him…. but even if he did pass then wouldn’t that free up another spot on the 40 man?

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  43. Yes it would. Dropping him from the 40 man roster would “expose” him to waivers, during which no one in their right mind would sign him. Once he passed through waivers he would become a free agent who could sign at the veteran minimum. Though the Phillies would still be on the hook for his 09 salary no matter what happens.

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  44. eaton could be a situational pitcher Like when you want to put someone on base. I would rather have Slayden in the minors than Eaton on the 40

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  46. Why do we spend so much time talking about marginal players like Slayden, he isn’t fast, okay outfielder, maybe a fifth outfielder or a swindle. We should be really looking at players who are younger and maybe can filled the void in left and the bullpen at third.another top starter,this would help save money to sign Hamels or howard.

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  47. I could be the long man in blowout games.
    Mike I am 66. I dont know how old you are but you are living in the past. There are no blowout games. Long relief is just as important as middle relief. Early in the season Durbin was pitching well and the Phils came back many times. How many times have the Phils scored around 10 runs. Eaton is a waste of time and a roster space Why talk about HIm. If he wasnt making a bundle we would of been gone the first year.
    While we are talking about long refief even the day it was
    stupidly handled. The starter got in trouble and the “last valued pitcher ” entered and there went the ballgame
    later in the game better pitchers HAD to pitch so why not use a better pitcher to get out of the inning then try the
    “long man”
    We need a full roster this year to break in young guys not
    carry floatsum like Eaton and SO-SO and even Jenkins

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  48. I am fifty six and long relief in maybe a blow out .you give him a couple of innings that’s all I could come up with. Knowing that they won’t eat his contract. sure in a perfect world we release him

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  51. john from philly.ne doesn’t it seem crazy how he can’t pitch he isn’t that old. If you really think about it they have his 8 million and jenkins 8 million wasted salary.

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  52. Whatever they got for Golson is a plus. At best, he’s a 5th outfielder. He only got a call-up because of his status as a #1 pick

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  53. m&m idont know why he cant pitch mechanical or emotional, i would say a combination of both. one thing i do see is he will lose concentration somewhere and once he does its over. as good a job that gillick did to me his philosophy was bring as many middle of the salary guys and some would pan out dobbs,romero etc. and some wouldnt eaton,jenkins taguchi. but you cannot argue with his success 3 ws rings, numerous playoffs.

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  54. Wow how can they let Golson go. He was the top rated outfielder in there system. a stud player. Amaro first mistake.

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  56. lol @ metsrule

    I’m shocked that a mets fan has the gonads to troll a Phillies thing after the past two years. . . .

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  58. I do not know whether Mayberry will ever make it but I am glad that we got something for Golson, before he joined the list of top Philly picks that eventually were forced to find another means of employment.

    I wish you well Greg, honestly!

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  61. goodthing ed wade signed Hampton b4 xmas he can break down putting ball on the tree snicker snicker
    ?Will Golson improve post-Reading like the pitchers have???

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