The last two days we looked at guys who may have performed better than their surface numbers would indicate, so today we’ll look at a few guys who maybe are overvalued based on their surface numbers. Don’t take offense if someone you love ends up here, as I’m sure we have different methods to evaluate prospects. Affiliate wrapups start Monday.
Quintin Berry, OF — Berry seems to have developed into a somewhat loved prospect here, not so much among the BA and BP crowd, but I don’t get the fascination. First, he was 23 this season at Clearwater, 2 years older than you’d like to see for a prospect in High A. Second, he posted a very pedestrian .268 secondary average. His .272/.360 batting/ob split is ok, but he slugged only .341 and has no power. His 37 net stolen bases were nice, but I don’t see how he projects as anything more than a 5th OF in the bigs. If thats what people here are projecting for him, then its fine and hes not really overvalued. But if anyone has bigger ideas, I have to think thats misguided at this point.
Cody Overbeck, 3B — Again, its tough to really know how everyone values specific guys. I touched on Overbeck in the draft review, I said he was an interesting guy, but that I wasn’t sure where he fit into the system. His .229 SecA is obviously a concern. He’s a non-threat on the bases, and his defensive position is undetermined. At this point, after looking at him a bit more, I’m not a fan.
Antonio Bastardo, LHP — I’ll use this space to continue to promote my anti-Bastardo agenda here. Bastardo’s problems center around his control, as he walked 4.35/9 this year across 2 levels. The reports on his stuff indicate two pitches and an just an average fastball, meaning his margin for error will continue to shrink as he faces better hitters. His ERA this season was 2.96, but his DICE was 4.28. Add in the uncertainty of his shoulder, and right now I’d be uncomfortable ranking him anywhere other than the 20-30 range of our Top 30. Some here thought he was a Top 10 guy earlier this year.
Again, everyone’s definition of “overvalued” or “undervalued” is different. If you weren’t high on these guys, then you wouldn’t think they were overvalued. I just picked these guys based on their peripheral numbers and the chatter on this site over the last few months.
Phuture Phillies 
I got not problem with any of those choices, especially since overvalued is a very subjective term.
Personally, I look at Berry as a fifth outfielder – especially if he is good defensively (does anyone have a report on how good his glove is?), Bastardo I think is a future bullpenner, and I like Overbeck but I think he may not be a MLB caliber player. Others here may disaggree with me, especially with Bastardo (PP Fan alert!).
I’d like to add the following to the list:
Carrasco – considered our #1 prospect by many, but doesn’t seem to be a star-caliber guy
Savery – I’m guilty of overvaluing him. A first rounder should probably be putting up better numbers than he has
Slayden – Nice numbers, but I just don’t think he’s much of a prospect
Happ – Should be a solid 4 or 5 starter, and I feel bad because the Phils might not have given him enough of an opportunity (granted, the health of their rotation this year also held him back), but there are some people on this list that think he is an All-Star waiting to happen
– Jeff
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For what it’s worth, I agree with you, James. These guys are probably “overvalued” because of the gulf between what (some) people believe they are, and what they realistically project as. I do think that Berry has a nice chance to be a decent 5th OF, but that’s it. Overbeck seems to be a man without a position, and even if he wound up at 3B — which is doubtful — his dubious plate discipline (12:65 BB:K) wouldn’t bode well anyway. Finally, Bastardo’s ceiling is probably a JC Romero type lefty — in addition to the career-long problem with walks (4.38 BB/9), the career FB% is scary too (48%, compared to 36% grounders). Putting men on base + allowing flyballs = not good in CBP.
Berry and Bastardo will wind up on the lower reaches of my Top 30, with Overbeck off the board. I’m hopeful that the first two will eventually contribute to the Phils in some capacity, though I know their contributions will be far more limited than some believe.
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what is secA
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PP you know what is kind of amazing to me. The phillies right now have a instructional league for players. All these players getting meal money and rooms how much it cost to develop a players.
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Just curious… what makes you say CC doesn’t have a fit for a average 2 plus 3 starting pitcher? Or when you said start did you mean clear #1. I think most of us here have him pegged as a 2-3. I think he’ll put up a high 3 era every year with somewhere around 6.8-7.2 k/9 and ~ 2-3 BB/9 with 13-16 wins if he continues his devleopment injury free, if that’s over-rating him, by all means elaborate.
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Edit: In the second sentence I meant STAR not START.
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I don’t know if it is simply a matter of continuing to return to health, but Savery certainly has not lived up to his expectations to date.
Going into the season Harman was around #10 on a lot of prospect lists and bombed.
I think all our minor league 1B and 3B have been overestimated and have not had good seasons. Hopefully Mattair can get it going next season, but the corner IF have not impressed. Durant made some underestimated lists and I know there is some love for Bolt on this forum, but I just don’t see it. Overbeck also seems over buzzed based on decent numbers, but for a college senior. Corner IF prospects of the age the Phillies have should be tearing the cover off the ball in minors. The OPS are pretty pedestrian.
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Supra –
By star, I mean a Hamels-type ace who anchors a pitching staff. Most people on this list don’t seem to think Carrasco will be that type of player, and I agree with you that your projections for him sound about right.
I guess I put him in the “overvalued” column because with him getting “Top Prospect” status there might be expectations of him being a perennial All-Star
– Jeff
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I really don’t think many (anyone) has visions of Carrasco as an ace or perennial All Star. And, he likely is our top prospect. That just means we have no obvious superstar types on the pharm as we did in the days with Hamels, Utley, Howard. We likely have more depth today, but the primo quality is absent. Carrasco likely a good #3 starter and Marson a decent starting catcher. The guys who jump out as having a chance to be something special, although not super high probability for it, are Drabek and Taylor.
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we will have to agree to disagree on Q. which is fine.
i see him as guy with a plus, plus tool (lead the FSL in sbs); great defense; and a very nice OB% (12th in the FSL). he will be a slap hitter, a la juan pierre. guys like that can have a very nice career. i don’t think that he is an all star by any stretch. but i do think that he will be a productive mlb player.
also, to not be redundant to my many posts this season, i won’t go into why i think savery is over rated.
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I agree with you on Overbeck & Berry and have always seen Berry as 5th OF, pinch runner & possible defensive replacement due to his speed.
I understand what you are saying about Bastardo but I have hope that he will continue to get stronger and develop more accuracy; if so, he has a chance to be an asset in the Bigs.
Now I know that I am going to get bashed by some on this site and I really do hope that I am completely wrong but I believe that there are many, including the Phils’ management, that have overvalued Golson. Yes, there was improvement this year and yes, he does have “tools” but in 4 full years in the system he has not had one year that he has even reached the point where he ..ONLY.. K’s once every 4 AB’s. I do not believe that anyone is projecting him to be a 30 HR guy, so a good OBP should be very important for him. Not only does he K too often, he does not walk enough and it appears that he is still a long way off from understanding the strike zone. He has good speed but I doubt that he will be a prolific base stealer. His defense is good but certainly not gold glove worthy. With all of this, it was reported this summer that Phils’ management considered G.G. a virtual “untouchable”.
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“Now I know that I am going to get bashed by some on this site and I really do hope that I am completely wrong but I believe that there are many, including the Phils’ management, that have overvalued Golson.”
What site have you been reading? From what I can tell, very few people here like Golson.
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After watching the past season, isn’t Golson at least what So Taguchi should be?
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Too bad So-SO has pix of someone doing something his spot
could of allowed a little rotation of prospect to get their feet
wet and see how they do up with the big guys. Lord know they got less than nothing from that spot and still are. Pospect
questions could of been partially answered
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I agree with the three names chosen by PP. I wasn’t surprised by the choices except for Overbeck. I would’ve never thought of him as overvalued because I don’t put too much into what college guys do in Williamsport or GCL.
The top prospect label in an organization doesn’t necessarily mean that player is going to be an all star or a five star player. To me that just means hes the best prospect in that system according to whoever puts out the list. I think for the most part Carrasco’s value has been right on. I haven’t seen too many people that think hes an ace or a cy young waiting to happen. Plus, hes only 21, its silly to think he couldn’t put everything together and reach or surpass his expected potential. I don’t think hes name should be part of this conversation.
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Strong work here, and I agree with James’ three picks as well as several of the sentiments expressed in the comments: Carrasco isn’t “overvalued” because I don’t think the general expectation is that he’ll be more than a good #3 on a contending team–whcih isn’t anything to sniff at–and Golson probably is because, at a fairly advanced age and developmental level, he still isn’t showing an ability to translate his tools into skills that actually help win baseball games.
But it’s difficult sometimes to determine who will and won’t become a star. allentown points to Utley, Howard, and Hamels, but what I remember about those three guys was that Utley’s reportedly shaky defense and inability to hit lefties would limit his value; Howard likely would be a Russell Branyan type at best; and Hamels’ health issues would derail him. Not since Burrell and maybe Rolen before him have we had prospects that reached the majors with the hoopla recently directed at the likes of Jay Bruce or Evan Longoria.
I think allentown is right about the corner infielders in the system, though. Maybe Mattair will start to show his power next season (and maybe the faster-than-expected blossoming of draft classmate and fellow Travis D’Arnaud makes him look worse than is merited), and it’s not like his 2008 was a disaster, but right now he seems more in the mode of our many recent failed 3b prospects than the Rolen-type guy we thought he might become.
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Let’s see what Carrasco does in winter ball. He is listed on the Leones del Caracas roster. He had one of the lowest ERA’s of any starter in AAA in August .
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what were rolen’s #’s at spartansburg?
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Does anyone know how I could go back and see stats and what they were saying about uggla. I just wonder if he was like donald cast a ulitity player and that’s why he was a six year player lost in the draft.
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Baseball reference will give you his minor league stats
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=14827
As for scouting reports, I suspect an internet search would turn up some information.
I think the biggest issue with Uggla what that his defense was bad enough the most didn’t project he would be able to stay there.
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Agree Berry projects as no more then 5th OF–if that. In fact, I think that should be glaringly obvious to everyone. He has not shown anything near what an everyday player prospect should show. It would be nice if that changes in AA and shows more, but not likely at this point.
Agree Bastardo is a mystery at this point. Improving comtrol and staying healthy could keep him in the running as a middle reliever. Beyond that, he would have to improve his control markedly and show the ability to go 7 innings without blowing up in most games. Again, not likely. Middle relief is more likely but even that no guarantee. His best value now is if he gets hot like at times last year he can be called up in case of bullpen injury and maybe get guys out for a stretch.
Overbeck to me is an unknown. At best a Matt Stairs type, but unlikely to be more than a AA merc.
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A’town. Agree with your points but would add that Mattair at times last year looked like he would break through to solid average or slightly above avgin his class. That gives me hope that some combo of personal maturity, experience and “getting it” will lift him a rung or two in the next 2-3 years. We’ll see.
Agree we have no clear superstars in wating, but it’s worth saying that we hope Taylor proves us way wrong about that in AA. There are 1 or 2 younger guys who could break into that category, mist likely Knapp or one of the athletic draftees. But maybe none of these does it.
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I’m not sure how any of the three mentioned could be considered overvalued? I don’t see any of them becoming a factor with the Phillies.
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I agree with Q and Bastardo being overvalued… I see Q as a 5th OF/pinch runner and Bastardo as a quality lefty arm out of the pen…. which really aren’t too shabby of scenarios. Both are needs that will eventually need to be filled.
But I disagree on Overbeck. In order to be overvalued people need to value you… I haven’t really seen anything saying he was the next David Wright or anything. Besides, the guy’s only had a half a season in he system anyway… You’re always preaching not to judge what a prospect does in small samples. Give him at least a year before you write him off completely.
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I confess I misread PP’s question a bit. He is actually asking a very tricky question, looking at end of season stats, rather than pre-season or current rep, who is not as good as the stats suggest. I’m guessing that will weight heavily on age and the less-quoted stats. Given that, my choice of Harman and Savery were dumb, their stats show they had a bad year.
I may be a little harsh on Mattair as a cold-weather HS guy who skipped from GCL to a pitcher’s park in SAL. That is a challenge and his OPS went up a nidge, but still didn’t reach .650 — in any event, he can’t be over-valued, based on stats that aren’t good on their face. Although he has good size (6′-5″, 210#) he didn’t show much power, just an extra base hit every 18 AB. D’Arby Myers did better than that. Also, his walk rate is low and he has 3 times as many Ks. None of that is good, but he was only 19 and doesn’t have as much meaningful baseball experience as the warm weather HS guys, so he is a guy who could still break out over next two seasons. But a sub-.650 OPS in his first two seasons still does not stoke my imagination, regardless of age.
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I see Carlos Carrasco as our #2 or #3 by 2011…and to further learn his trade by a midseason callup in ’09, and taking his turn until he reaches that #2-3 status.
His short time in AAA showed me that learning his offspeed pitches sufficiently allowed him–at coaches’ direction–to have accomplished that to allow him to pitch off his fastball and increase his Ks at AAA to more than 1/inn (36 IP, 37 H, 13 BB, 46 Ks). Previously in ’07:70 IP, 65 H, 46 BB, 49 K.
Sure, that is a “small sample”-but to me is a big turnaround for the reasons given, and sets him up to come up mid-’09.
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Above “Anonymous” was me; I take responsibility.
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