Coming in at 10th.
Nothing really new in the scouting report. Impressive tools, breakout performance, etc etc. Keeping things up to date.
GCL
4. Jason Knapp
7. Sebastian Valle
8. Zach Collier
13. Anthony Hewitt
NYPL
5. Travis D’Arnaud
SAL
15. Michael Taylor
FSL
10. Michael Taylor
And the nail in the coffin, Adrian Cardenas came in at #5. This was the most damaging part
The biggest question with Cardenas centers around his best defensive position. His struggles turning the double play limit his potential at second base, and his lateral movement and footwork probably won’t allow him to play shortstop. His arm is strong enough for his third base, and his bat would fit there as well.
bah.
Phuture Phillies 
I’ve heard different takes on Cardenas. Keith Law thinks that his bat, D, and arm won’t play at 3rd. Let’s hope KLaw is right, as I don’t think anyone here could take Cardenas tearin it up as a 3B in Oakland.
LikeLike
The one that got away. We’ll be telling that fish story for years to come. Outman might be (in my mind, will be) another big fish story.
Congrats to MT. I think he might have been top 20 in any league … this year. I hope he’s enjoying the sun and fun in HI. In my line of work, we call that a boondoggle. He deserves it.
LikeLike
Phillies were 9-4 in Blanton’s 13 starts. Without that trade, I doubt they end up winning the East.
It would be nice if teams would just serve the wishes of Phillies’ fans and trade us all good players for nothing in return, but it doesn’t work that way.
LikeLike
yeah, imagine eaton in those games. if eaton would have been able to do what they paid him to do this would have never been an issue.
LikeLike
Jake he had 14 guality starts out of 33 games .your point is 9-4 in 13 starts,is mute.Kendrick won 10 games with a high era. is he guality. some pitchers get great run support but it doesn’t last and then you need to be able to keep your team in games. Blanton and kenfdrick don’t qualitify. Blanton trade was made because they didn’t want give happ or carrasco a chance. And misread there prospects .
LikeLike
Jake remember a lot of those starts were against inferior team
and a lot were 5 innings and get him out of there. You assume
Happ or Carrasco could not of won those games or any decent pitcher .
LikeLike
Question Does Happ make the postseason roster???
Seems to me he is the perfect relief in case Myers stays
bad.
LikeLike
Blanton was 9-4 with a 4.20 ERA with the Phillies after the deal. What his overall numbers are, including his time in Oak. is irrelevant.
As for his starts, 8 of the 13 were against teams above .500 and you can basically throw out the 2-inning job against ATL where he didn’t return after a rain delay. This means that 8 of his 12 starts were against good teams.
The big assumption is that Carrasco could have pitched well enough to have won those same games since Happ was already needed to take over for Kendrick who also fell apart down the stretch.
One final point to consider is that when the Blanton deal was made, B. Myers was still in the minors trying to turnaround a disaster of a season, Eaton was in the rotation, and Kendrick was starting to falter. Happ was already taking Myers starts and they had 2 other rotation spots that were a disaster.
Whether you like him or not, Joe Blanton is a big reason the Phillies are still playing baseball this October.
Time will tell if the Blanton deal ends up being a good move or not over the long-term but for 2008, it was a winner for the Phillies.
LikeLike
well said 3up
LikeLike
Blanton’s performance is only slightly relevant to the merits of the trade, since it’s arguable Happ could have pitched as well as Blanton (team record is completely irrelevant) By the arguments above, they could have given up Marson/Carrasco/Taylor and it would have been fine, since it got us into the playoffs.
I was originally of the opinion that it way too much to give up for an average starter at best, and the subsequent performances by all the players involved haven’t changed this one bit.
If anything, the point about Cardenas to 3B should quiet all the posters who claimed he was “blocked” and therefore useless.
LikeLike
My bigger concern on the list wasn’t where Taylor finished but was the comments in the “chat” section on Savery. Not a lot of love for our guy Joe here. To me this is a bit scary – only because I was never on the “Savery will be in the majors in ’09” thing (mainly because I think he got a lot of play being a two way guy but never had “domination” written all over him as a pitcher). Know a lot of folks are in love with him on the site (hey – I love Golson so we all have our faults!) but anyone else nervous about this?? This isn’t “had a fault here or there” this is “wouldn’t have been noticed if he wasn’t a first round pick”
From the chat:
*************************************************
How close was Joe Savery to making the Top 20?
A: J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone, thanks for all the questions, to get through as many as possible I’m just going to dive in. Savery was actually not close to making the Top 20, which surprised me somewhat. I searched, but couldn’t find anyone who saw him really good. He was 86-88 with no real consistent secondary pitch, he struggles to hold runners and proved to be very hittable. He was usually described as a pitcher you wouldn’t notice if he hadn’t been a first-round pick.
LikeLike
There’s not much we can do about Cardenas and Outman now. We’ll see how they do when they reach the majors for a full season. They could both be all-stars, or they could both flame out, and when we know for sure, we’ll judge the trade. What we can judge right now is Blanton’s impact on the Phils, and there’s no doubt that it was positive. Could Happ done as well as the 4th starter? Who knows. But then who would the 5th starter have been? Kendrick? Eaton? Even if Happ could’ve equaled Blanton, that’s still a few games that we probably lose by sending a lame duck to the mound. And we only won the division by 2 games. So, I’ll judge the trade as good now, and in the future, it may look like we gave up way too much and we can cry about it then.
LikeLike
Padriac,
Happ was already IN the rotation at that point so he couldn’t have taken Blanton’s starts but what he “might” have been able to do is pure speculation and has no bearing on evaluating this particular trade.
As for the rest of your statement, the reality is that the jury is still out on the overall merits of the deal (as I stated in the last paragraph). Not exactly sure how Blanton’s performance isn’t extremely relevant since he was the reason for the deal in the first place. Its not like they just gave the A’s 3 players for fun..
If Outman, Cardenas, and/or Spencer become quality major league players while Blanton falters now and over the next couple of years that they stilll control him, then it was a bad deal.
If none of those 3 players establish themselves as regulars while Blanton continues to provide solid innings for the Phillies then they are the big winners.
Note: The only thing that will quiet posters is if Cardenas actually does become a regular, productive 3b for Oak. At this point, no-one knows if he can handle the transition or not, just that he has enough arm for the job.
LikeLike
Sounds like Captain America is hurt. 86-88? Guess thats why he gave up so many hits. Not good. And he’s in Florida throwin some more, hopefully they aren’t blinded by the fact that hes a first rounder, admit to themselves something’s wrong and get him treatment.
LikeLike
3up,
I agree with most of what you wrote, obviously the jury is still out, and Blanton’s performance is relevant. My point is that to *only* look at his performance (which has been ‘eh’ anyway), ignores the prospects the team gave up.
Would you argue that a one or two win difference this year would have been worth Taylor/Carrasco/Marson?
My point is that people have either underestimated Cardenas or came up with ridiculous reasons (blocked) to explain away trading two top-5 prospects for an average starter. On this point, I think Blanton’s average performance is beside the point. It was a lot of talent to give up for very little talent.
And the Blanton/Happ overlap was very small, maybe 3 starts when they were both in the rotation.
I still think 13 Happ + 3 Kendrick/Eaton/Carrasco would have been about the same (better maybe) than 13 Blanton + 3 Happ. I just think Happ is a better pitcher at this point.
LikeLike
Eastern League came out today. Carrasco at 6, Marson at 14, and Golson at 20. No Donald though.
LikeLike
Blanton was pretty solid in his last three starts (Milwaukee, @Florida, Washington): 18 IP, 6 ER (9 R total), 3 HR, 5 BB, 15 K, and the Phils won all three games. This is about when his bursitis was announced/had gone away.
Going forward, who knows. I hated the trade on first blush, then thought it was mildly bad, and that’s where I still am. But he’s a serviceable #4 for a good team. Hopefully he doesn’t cost them a ton of money, and Cardenas and Outman don’t emerge as perennial all-stars.
LikeLike
I can’t believe anyone would say that blanton is a good pitcher. His last ten starts he average 5.2 innings and over four runs. Project that out and his era is about 6 runs per game. And he pitch to teams with above 500 records what kind of argument is that. When he goes to arbritation is he going to tell the phillies. He wants to only pitch against pirates and worst. Look I could care less about the prospect now but what scares me is people buy into the phillies progranda. Blanton isn’t a good 4 or 5 he is by his performance. borderline major league pitcher. There are guy in the minors who are just as good. His career numbers are terrible. And how can anyone say happ or carrasco couldn’t have gone 9-5 pitching less than 6 innings a start. And only having to beat under 500 clubs.
LikeLike
No, I don’t think that Blanton would be worth Taylor / Carrasco / Marson but since that isn’t who the Phillies traded that hypothetical serves no purpose.
Would winning a WS in 2008 be worth trading those 3???
In the end, I’m not 100% committed that Blanton was worth Cardenas / Outman / Spencer either but that is a big difference.
At this point, it appears that we mainly disagree on the future potential of Cardenas. You are obviously much higher on him than I am…
LikeLike
how can they skip donald?
LikeLike
Rocky, not sure where you get your numbers from. Blanton’s ERA with the Phillies was 4.04 over his last 10 starts with the Phillies, including 6 starts against teams OVER .500.
For comparison, a 4.04 ERA would rank him 49th (just behind J. Beckett) in ALL of ML baseball for qualified starting pitchers. Not bad for a 4th starter IMO…
As for his career #’s, again you might want to actually look them up because a career 51-46 record and a 4.24 ERA isn’t exactly terrible. In fact, it is better than Brett Myers and much better than the guy who just got $41M from the Cardinals (Lohse)
LikeLike
Agree that 3B can be Cardenas’ landing spot. He is a big barrel chsted guy without great range, but good at catching the ball and reports say he has a good arm. At the plate he looks like a afuture Kevin Youkilis to me. Good line drive hiter with gap power and 15-20+ HRs, maybe a few more at CBP. I’ll take an avg or avg+ fielding Cardenas at 3B, hitting like Youkilis, Alex, for $2000. Then I will enjoy the 2-3 AS games over the next 10 years while we worry about holes at other positions.
Buzzzzzzzzzz, Sorry your time is up. Oh, it’s too late, because we traded for another fat, mediocre pitcher that Happ could have performed as well as. Sorry. Meanwhile Outman pitches about as well as Madson or Happ (second level performer) for 5-8 years.
LikeLike
Look If you want to even mention him in the same breath with beckett, I will just laugh and say you are kidding me. As I said before he average 5,2 inings a start is that good .maybe I am wrong but he only had 4 quality starts in 13 games. His hits per innings is bad and even the phillies were pulling him out of fear. to average less than 6 innings a start. you want to tell me that’s good where is that inning eater we where told he was . and to even mention over 500 teams he is supposed to be a major league pitcher. . Blanton stuff isn’t near lohse.I hope the phillies don’t go to arbiration and give this guy any kind of money because he is another eaton. you might not think so but watching him sure looks like it to me. Remember he was in the american league on a bad team.So if its 5-0 in fifth he stays in no pinchhitting,here he is out of game. has a chance to pitch another inning and maybe not give up anything.
LikeLike
Sorry pp for talking about major league just got caught up in the blanton conversation.
LikeLike
Well I got a response on Donald:
Q: Joe from Delaware asks:
I’m surprised that Jason Donald didn’t make the list. I understand that before the season he was rated as utility at best, but after this breakout year he HAD to have climbed the prospect list. A solid middle infielder with pop. I believe he was the best hitter on the Olympic team.
A: John Manuel: Tons of questions already in so I hope I can get to all of them. I appreciate everyone dropping by for a Replacements-powered chat.
John Manuel: Jason Donald was a pretty tough guy to rank. I thought the EL had a very defined top and a very muddled 5-25 range, where a lot of players could have been considered and ranked in any order. Donald is a guy who would rank in the top 10 if anyone I talked to was sold on him as a big league starter at shortstop. But I didn’t find that scout or manager. Instead I got a lot of respect for his solid bat, good approach to the game and solid defensive ability, but no one thought of him as a first-division regular. His range is shy at short; at third base, his power’s short. At second base, which has evolved into a truly offensive position, he’s got a chance to be average. He could be a good fit for Philly, though, if they keep Howard, Utley & Rollins together. You wouldn’t need a ton of power at 3b, just a solid player, and that’s Donald. He’s a sure-fire big leaguer but the consensus is that his upside is limited and that his best profile is as a utility player. Therefore, not a Top 20 guy for me.
Well thought out answer. Seems like he’s close to being ranked if he can just continue what he’s doing.
LikeLike
Don’t know what to tell you Rocky, the numbers are what they are.
He was bad in Oakland this season but was also pretty good in Philly where he gave up less hits than IP.
As for being an inning eater. He threw over 190 innings for the 4th straight season. Part of the reason his innings per start were down at the end of the season is because the Phillies were in a pennant race, meaning they are much more likely to go to the bullpen earlier…
Jamie Moyer averaged 5.8 IP/game in his last 10..
Hamels 6.7
Happ 5.6
Myers 7.0
Blanton 5.5
But I’m really not interested in turning this into a debate of the merits of Joe Blanton. We will see if anyone the Phillies traded away develops into something or not.
LikeLike
Come on guys. Minor league baseball.
LikeLike
One thing that was crazy was it seems he has era at 5 per 9 innings one year then the next less than 4 since he was in the league. but let’s just say we disagree and leave it at that.
LikeLike
Q: Joe from Delaware asks:
I’m surprised that Jason Donald didn’t make the list. I understand that before the season he was rated as utility at best, but after this breakout year he HAD to have climbed the prospect list. A solid middle infielder with pop. I believe he was the best hitter on the Olympic team.
A: John Manuel: Tons of questions already in so I hope I can get to all of them. I appreciate everyone dropping by for a Replacements-powered chat.
John Manuel: Jason Donald was a pretty tough guy to rank. I thought the EL had a very defined top and a very muddled 5-25 range, where a lot of players could have been considered and ranked in any order. Donald is a guy who would rank in the top 10 if anyone I talked to was sold on him as a big league starter at shortstop. But I didn’t find that scout or manager. Instead I got a lot of respect for his solid bat, good approach to the game and solid defensive ability, but no one thought of him as a first-division regular. His range is shy at short; at third base, his power’s short. At second base, which has evolved into a truly offensive position, he’s got a chance to be average. He could be a good fit for Philly, though, if they keep Howard, Utley & Rollins together. You wouldn’t need a ton of power at 3b, just a solid player, and that’s Donald. He’s a sure-fire big leaguer but the consensus is that his upside is limited and that his best profile is as a utility player. Therefore, not a Top 20 guy for me.
LikeLike
I guess the people who have seen donald would know. I thought following his minor league career he would be a good player. a starter. But all I can do is go by his numbers, not being a scout I guess we have to hope we find a third baseman somewhere else.
LikeLike
Just wondering maybe donald is like uggla. A prospect who people weren’t sold on and was let go in the draft to florida. would be interested to see what they thought of him before florida got him as a six year player.
LikeLike
Jason Donald belongs to a familarly common group of minor leaguers. He has hit about the same at every level so unless you look at the whole body of work and not just look for huge numbers. These types are usually very successful.
ps Cardenas fits that type also
LikeLike
Airbornranger Do you recall some players like donald. players who were peg as ulitity and made it as starter in the majors.
LikeLike
Donald should be playing third base for us in the next few years. When you have an infield of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, & Jimmy Rollins you don’t need a 30 Home Run guy playing third base. If he can hit .280+ with 15-20 HR power while playing decent defense he’d be perfect for our infield. IMO.
LikeLike
Our own former minor leaguer Nick Punto comes to mind. He seemed a long shot to get more than a couple cups of coffee in the majors, with utility guy as an absolute ceiling. He doesn’t have a great OPS, but does average over 400 AB a season over the past 4 seasons.
LikeLike
B, If you want the best infield possible you try to develop a power hitting 3rd basemen no matter who else is in the infield. Donald is going to be a very very useful player as a utility player for the Phils or whoever he gets traded to this winter.
LikeLike
True, but the odds of that are not good. Mattair/Hewitt are in low A and there aren’t any on the free agent market at some point.
LikeLike
Isn’t huff a third baseman and a free agent?
LikeLike
1- Huff is a 1B/DH at this point in his career.
2- Supposedly he’s team cancer.
3- He’s a free agent after next year.
I wouldn’t go near him.
LikeLike
thanks
LikeLike
20. Greg Golson, of, Reading (Phillies)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-0 Wt.: 190 Age: 23 Drafted: Phillies ’04 (1)
No one in the league, save Erie’s Wilkin Ramirez, had tools that could compare to Golson’s across the board. Both Ramirez and Golson struck out at least 100 times more than they walked, calling their hitting ability into question. Golson’s struggles have gone on since he was a first-round pick in 2004, but scouts who have seen him throughout his pro career have discerned slow, steady improvement in his pitch recognition and ability to lay off breaking balls outside the strike zone.
While Ramirez has more hitting ability now, Golson’s other tools give him the edge as a prospect, as he has much more defensive value. Golson’s power plays as average even with his low contact rate, and he’s a well above-average runner with excellent outfield range and a plus arm. Managers rated him as the EL’s most exciting player.
“He swings like Ron Gant,” Oliveras said. “If he learns to hit breaking balls, look out.”
LikeLike
14. Lou Marson, c, Reading (Phillies)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-1 Wt.: 200 Age: 22 Drafted: Phillies ’04 (4)
Marson and Reading teammate Jason Donald were two of the dozen position players who played for USA Baseball’s bronze-medal Olympic team. Donald’s tools are solid and he’s a prospect in his own right, but most scouts see him as best-suited for a utility role. They project Marson as an everyday player thanks to his athleticism, offensive ability and defensive skills behind the plate.
His biggest asset is his bat. Marson has gap power, excellent strike-zone judgment (he led the EL with a .433 on-base percentage) and a feel for hitting.
The biggest issue for Marson is his arm strength, which is fringy at best. He compensates for it with a quick release and accuracy, and threw out 36 percent of EL basestealers. He’s a capable receiver and an intelligent player who keeps getting better at handling pitchers and running a staff.
“He’s just a very solid player with a very solid approach to the game,” Akron manager Mike Sarbaugh said. “He catches a good game and he can hit.”
LikeLike
. Carlos Carrasco, rhp, Reading (Phillies)
B-T: R-R Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 215 Age: 21 Signed: Venezuela ’03
Carrasco threw 70 innings with Reading in 2007, and he was better for the experience. He still didn’t dominate the league, and in the words of one manager, he still had a tendency to “fold up” in stressful situations. Yet scouts and managers and scouts liked his combination of size, athleticism and stuff.
Carrasco reaches 95 mph with his fastball but has more control and life when he keeps it down around 92. He needs to pitch off his heater more often, however. His changeup remains an average-to-plus pitch with nasty sink and makes him more effective against lefthanders than righties.
He worked to improve his direction to the plate, smoothing out his delivery a bit and aiding his command. Carrasco’s curveball also improved and grades out as solid-average.
Scouts agreed that he made “tons of progress.” But one NL scout added, “He needs to use his fastball more; it’s a good fastball and he doesn’t pitch off it enough.”
LikeLike
there is another report off 95 mph. A lot of people who have seen him on this site said he doesn’t hit that speed. 89-91 most said. What is the truth on this kid?
LikeLike
“Jake he had 14 guality starts out of 33 games .your point is 9-4 in 13 starts,is mute.Kendrick won 10 games with a high era. is he guality. some pitchers get great run support but it doesn’t last and then you need to be able to keep your team in games. Blanton and kenfdrick don’t qualitify. Blanton trade was made because they didn’t want give happ or carrasco a chance. And misread there prospects .”
I don’t care what he did with the A’s. It’s immaterial. he came here and did what was needed. He helped put the Phillies in the postseason. And he’ll be a No. 3 starter for the next two seasons. It was a very good trade for us, although the prospects have a chance to even it out.
LikeLike
Get off your high horse. The trade for Blanton was good. Without him we are not in the playoffs.
8. J Blanton
PHI 4 0 4.20 13 13 0 0 0 0 70.2 66 36 33 10 3 31 49
LikeLike
regarding marson – isn’t arm strength something that can be improved by lifting weights?
LikeLike
Rocky – Guys velocity can vary in that range from day to day.
Thanks for the writeups Bergeraj.
If Golson is ranked #20 I say sell high. The guy is a pure lottery ticket. That whole ‘if he learns to hit breaking pitches’ is the elephant in the room. It should just be ‘if he learns to hit’. I hope he does, because he could be special. If he can’t he’s Michael Bourn.
LikeLike
The Blanton Trade was significant. He was injured and was still able to go out and grind it out.
Blanton replaces Eaton. Because this happened the Phillies are in the playoffs. Without this trade the Phillies not have had a chance. Good points as well about Myers being in the minors and the rotation being 2 Arms Short.
If Outman and Cardenas both have Big League careers, the trade is still worth it, both this year and next. To imagine that Happ was ready and that you would make the decision that Happ was the better choice is not honest. If you had to you would have, but Blanton represented a higher a higher chance of success and he delivered.
This also allows Happ to slide into the 5th spot next year, and Carrasco and Kendrick to have developmental time in AAA. Kendrick has done wonderful things for the Phillies as he was rushed to the Majors, now he need a chance to develop a secondary pitch. 3up was correct.
Blanton was solid, and brought stability when the rotation was imploding.
LikeLike
Carrasco is able to hit 95 whenever he wants to. I’ve seen him a few times this year and he’s learning/experimenting more rather than just throwing hard. Against Harrisburg when Dimitri Young was in the lineup on a rehab, Carrasco blew him away with backfoot sliders making Young look silly. It was like he had a vengence to specifically get him out. Then he goes back to throwing 10 straight fastballs. Strange. It’s like the Phillies are fine-tuning a big machine and aren’t quite ready yet to crank it up and unveil it yet. The lousy pitch selections called from the bench, on purpose, by the catcher for him are not the pitches that will be called in the majors. It’s a reason why I think he’s actually better than the credit he’s getting now. (It’s why he might have had better succes in AAA). Gillick once said he’s a #3 starter. That, to me, was an odd statement. I don’t agree with that and think it’s higher. His ranking on the list is ok with me, as it was a good league this year for prospects. I think Carrasco can be ready for the majors next mid-June if needed.
LikeLike
Blanton vs Nl east
Florida 5.40
Wash 5.40
Atl 9.00
Mets 7.50
Over 45 pitches the man is completely ineffective
In his three wins in sept the Phils scored 23 run and his
pitched a total of 16 innings. Any decent pitcher could of.
Lets see in the playoffs if the Phils let him pitch
LikeLike
Mightly small sample size (ATL – 2 IP, Mets 6 IP?) but guess its a good thing he isn’t facing any of those teams in the playoffs then!!!
As for their possible opponents:
Mil – 3.86
Chi – 3.18
LAD – 4.09
LikeLike
“regarding marson – isn’t arm strength something that can be improved by lifting weights?”
No, the best thing to strengthen a throwing arm is throwing- particulary long tossing. You want the muscle long and lose- lifting weights does the opposite (granted there are some light weight excercises that are good to build up the support muscles in the shoulder). Pitchers can also improve by improving their leg strength- but catchers will throw off their front foot so obviously there isn’t much of a leg drive.
LikeLike
hey3up ok but for the long run quite ordinary or less. good luck to him, there were many more possibles
LikeLike
but my point is, arm strength is something that can be improved, so it is a short term weakness for marson.
LikeLike
Carrasco is definitely faster than 89 – 91. I’d say he normally sits 90 – 92 with occassional 94-95 mph fastballs.
LikeLike
This is all very interesting. I still say that Donald is going to be a serious surprise as a major leaguer. I don’t see him as a utility man at all – I view him as someone who will likely be a strong regular and could even develop into a minor star. But he’s the type of guy who gets overlooked in these types of lists as he is solid across the board and not spectacular in any one phase of the game. And the sooner he gets to the big leagues, the better. If he were our 3B, you could move Dobbs back into an OF rotation and give Werth more playing time. All of which will make it palatable for the team not to sign Burrell, a player the team cannot afford if they wish to keep their other stars (Hamels, Howard).
LikeLike
My thoughts on the Blanton deal; I think most, or at least myself, were originally disappointed with the deal not because of Blanton himself, but the pitchers that were traded prior to the Blanton deal. We were a close 2nd in aquiring Sabathia, but the Harden deal in particular was the one that left me scratching my head. How could the Phils trade what they did for Blanton, and not have gotten Harden for a bit more.
Regardless, the Blanton deal may have gotten us into the playoffs in the first place, and should we win it all, it won’t really matter what becomes of Cardenas in the future. As far as Outman, and I’ve said this before, I don’t see him being anything more than an end of the rotation starter. We also struggled as to why Duchscherer was in our crosshairs instead of Blanton, and we all know how his season finished.
3up’s post above sums it up perfectly in my opinion. Consider the state of our pitching staff when we acquired Blanton, and I for one am glad we did.
LikeLike
More playing time for werth is a bad idea. He is a platoon player. back to minors if you had to guess who would be in the starting rotation in 2012, based on a lot of us liking this draft. Who would be your five starters.
LikeLike
Sorry mines would be Hamels, drabek, knapp,carrasco and Stutes
LikeLike
As much as I like to keep it in the minors, I can’t help myself.
Hamels 28 years old
Free Agent
Drabek 24 years old
Sampson 23 years old
Carrasco 25 years old
Closer: Knapp 21 years old in 2012!
Very young rotation, hopefully we can build a Braves esque dynasty. We can dream can’t we? Savery is missing, I was pretty high on him but when I saw that report that he was 86-88 with no good secondary pitch it really soured me.
LikeLike
In a perfect world, you could still have Burrell for another year or two and you could play Werth most, but not all, the time, but I doubt that’s going to happen. So I am looking at how the team can best make the transition to the post-Burrell era and, as I think about this, the best way to do this is to get Marson and Donald to the big leagues as quickly as possible. I think, realistically, next year, Ruiz and Marson will share the catching duties (the pitchers love throwing to Ruiz) and, hopefully, Donald can be up by around May or June. I also think they are going to have to patrol the waiver and trade markets for more outfielders. I would not mind if they found a way to pick up Wily Mo Pena – he’s been injured and he’ll be way undervalued. He could still blossom into a hell of a player and he’s a good risk if they do not have to pay too much.
LikeLike
2012 rotation? I’ll take a shot!
1. Hamels (what a game last night!)
2. Carrasco
3. Drabek
4. Sampson
5. Happ
Yowza, what a rotation! What is everyone’s realistic eta for Drabek/Sampson?
LikeLike
Hmmm….
Drabek and Sampson both start at Clearwater next year.
Sampson gets a full year, unless he is totally unhittable. After a full year in Reading in 2010, we’ll see him sometime in 2011 as an injury/ineffective guy replacement. In 2012, he’ll take a regular turn in the rotation
I get the feeling Drabek might be fast tracked. So my prediction is that he is lights out at Clearwater next year, gets a mid to late season promo to Reading, is so-so there. In 2010, he starts off gangbusters when he repeats at Reading, gets a promotion mid season, and is a September call up.
– Jeff
LikeLike
I’m probably crazy…but I think one of our pitchers in 2012 will be Jake Peavy instead of Carrasco. Peavy will be on the market this winter, and I just have a crazy feeling in the pit of my stomach that the Phils will empty the farm to get him…including Carrasco. I don’t see them moving Drabek and Carrasco in the same deal, so I have:
1) Hamels
2) Peavy
3) Drabek
4) Savery
5) some over-priced FA ala Adam Eaton. Or maybe Jamie Moyer will still be going.
LikeLike
Wonder if Savery and Drabek are taking some swings and fielding some grounders in the Instructional camp this Fall in case the pitching thing does not work out for them. Savery has not shown over powering stuff with his 4 plus ERA in the FSL. He did DH in 4 games going 3 for 13 this year which was never done before by a pitcher in the league’s history according to some veteran observers . And with Drabek, he was reportedly hitting 92 on a gun in Auburn N.Y. But it was hard to believe he went 6 innings without striking out a batter in another NY/Penn start this year. 09 will be vital for both of them to show if they have the potential to make it as major league pitchers .
LikeLike
Rickey –
I think Savery is doing okay, and I think the Phils have no intentions of switching him to a position player. I think the DH experiment was to throw him a bit of a bone, and keep him a little more focused. Checking on his stats, it seems to have worked – a 6-2 record over his last 10 starts, with a 3.5 era – and that includes the horrific 1ip, 8er outing of July 31st.
Nowadays, an ERA over 4 isn’t that horrible – and Savery’s was “only” 4.13. I think if he can cut back on the walks and hits allowed, he’s going to be a very solid major league pitcher (a better Randy Wolf?) – he gets a lot of groundouts, and he had a decent amount of Ks.
– Jeff
LikeLike
Lots of themes:
I’ll give you the perfect comparisons: Cardenas is a young Greg Dobbs, and Donald is Jay Bell, the old Pirates SS. Nick Punto has amazing hands while Donald is just average but Punto can’t hit like Donald, who can drive the ball. Jay Bell made all the routine plays and also had a good batting average with some power. That’s Donald. He definitely can play 3B on the Phils with the other three they have in place. I think the possibility of Carrasco being traded for Peavy (or more likely, Oswalt) is very real and something I would do in a heartbeat. We can’t get married to the players, just to the fact that they need to have value. I wish we had the prospects to get Matt Holiday but we don’t esepcially if Carrasco goes for a proven pitcher.
LikeLike
I don’t think the Phils would have to give up Carrasco to get Oswalt. Remember, Ed Wade is the GM there. They could probably trade Schlitter, even though he has already been traded…
LikeLike
Jeff –
No 1 has really said this not even the scouts but the record posted by Savery has almost nothing to do with his stuff but everything too do with him as a competitor… From everything I read on him this year he is average across the board and his FB is only around 88… To be honest thats not going to get hm into the Phillies rotation, im wondering if his shoulder just isnt strong enough after surgery and never will be. Or maybe he is being pushed 2 hard and is wearing down after post surgery and needs some rest. WHo knows but the guy isnt the 1st round pick we were hoping for.
LikeLike
Bergeraj –
Very interesting point about Savery’s competitiveness vs. talent. I guess his performance next year at Reading will be the real judge: AA is usually where the men get separated from the boys
– Jeff
LikeLike
Murray –
IMHO If we lock up Howard we dont put Donald at 3B because we dont need a hitter there. We were 3rd in the league in hitting but still won the division and a big part of that was Defense at 3B with Feliz.. If we dont need BIG production from 3B then go with a Gold Glove player over anything else. I want the Phillies to lock up Feliz and keep him at the corner until he cant handle it anymore.
Holiday is a great hitter but we dont need hitters we need pitchers. We cant have Howard, Peavy, Hamels, Holliday, and Rollins all on the same team if we want to field a solid team.
LikeLike
surely u jest lock up Feliz. He is the poster boy for under achievement .He is signed for next year isnt he at least work from that point. The minors are full of great fielders
Savery needs the winter off.
LikeLike
no faster way to get PP back posting then to start bashing savery and keep suggesting he switch to a position player. that always gets him worked up 🙂
LikeLike
Donald is only going to be average Defensively at best and we dont even know if he can make a positive transition until next year… We have a few potential 3Bs but none will be ready anytime soon and you dont need production from 5 infield positions. Plus Marson should make the move sometime next year which will help out the #8 hole in the order.
I say let Donald handle 2B move Utley too first let Howard walk spend on pitching.
LikeLike
I have suggested Utley to left field. Also remember that as far as defense is concerned Utley was considered below average
when drafted so Donald may improve. Donald needs to be with the team out of spring training “you cant learn to hit major league pitching in the minors”
LikeLike
Does Utley even have the arm strength to play left?
Why would we break up he duo of JRoll and Utley?
I think we should all realize that Howard won’t be moved for at least another year. I mean we really shouldn’t proclaim Donald a new 3B or 2B for the Phills. We have seen many of a player look good and never pan out here in Philly. Utley will probably play his entire career at 2B.
I think we should package Golson for someone who is a contact hitting OF. We don’t need to add 150 strikeouts to this lineup, which he’ll do.
I really hope the “new” GM does not make any foolish trades. I looked at the trade involving Maddux and honestly if the Phills made a trade like that and sacrificed to young pitchers for nothing I would be ticked off.
Finally, hopefully Taylor wasn’t a 1 year fluke, because if he was our organization will be right back to lacking a power hitting prospect. Which we need.
LikeLike
Jeff O,
I was surprised that Lakewood first baseman Michael Durant was not included on the Instructional roster. The only first basemen listed are GCL players De los Santos, who played the outfield there and led that league in RBI’s and Hamilton who can’t hit. No Clay Harris, Rizzotti, Bolt etc. Savery remains the best first baseman in the organization not on the 40 man roster .
LikeLike
I’m thinking Durant is probably not being considered much of a prospect at this point. He’d have to really turn it on at Clearwater next year. I believe he only had 6 or 7 homers in the second half of the year at Lakewood, and he’s not going to get by on his batting average or subpar defense.
I’m still pulling for Hamilton to get it together, with Overbeck being the dark horse candidate to become a big name prospect at first (or outfield) next year.
– Jeff
LikeLike
I really wish that everyone would get off the Utley to 1B or Utley to LF ideas because neither will ever happen. Utley has supreme value BECAUSE he plays 2B. He’s the best in the league at 2B and he wouldn’t be at 1B or LF. Also, while I wish the Phils would lock up Howard they probably won’t be able to for reasonable numbers. We don’t have a good power hitting 1B prospect in the minors although they keep trying to draft one in the mid rounds. However, other teams have them and a trade for one doesn’t seem unreasonable down the road if our minor league pitching continues to come on. You guys that get reports on the IL activity, any word on Baez as a pitcher? I’m very curious as to whether he can make the conversion.
LikeLike
Rickey Branch,
Of the bunch, Bolt is the best athlete/1B from the Lakewood group. But for some reason, they continued to push him to the OF this past year. He had 3 months over .320, but after the 2 broken noses (no he doesn’t have 2 noses), faltered in July, before finishing strong in August (.326). I think the Phillies feel they need a bigger guy than Bolt’s 6-3, 215 size at the right corner.
LikeLike
I can’t understand anyone who follows baseball to suggest. We take a allstar second basemen and move him to another positon. Especially for a unproven minor leaguer. Makes no sense what so ever. I was on last years draft and was reading how pp hated a lot of the picks. It’s interesting how right he seems to be, Savery is not performing like a first round high pick. Mattair is okay at best. Taylor so far is the suprise. He was also mad about how many older players were taken so high and he was right there too. Why this ownership would not want to spend money in the draft, When they will not go into FA and get a ace pitcher because it’s risky to sign pitchers to long term contracts. Now before people talk about this draft remember they might have spend a little more in this years draft because of there not going big in international market.
LikeLike
One thing on howard he wants a long term contract for big dollars. My guess is twenty million plus for six years, They won’t do it.
LikeLike
Murry I agree with you but you need solutions You cant have Burrell and Howard.
LikeLike
One quick MLB note on Howard: His agent stated that the Miguel Cabrera deal (8 years, 150 million) would be the opening of any negotiatons for Howard. That was in April BTW. So yeah…does anyone really see him here long term? We DO have him for a few more years in arbitration so lets not worry about 1B…LF is a concern for next year and so is 3B in another year. Hopefully Taylor pans out for the former and Donald for the latter…it’d be nice to have solid inhouse replacements so they can use that money to keep the core together and get another top pitcher (Maybe Lowe?)
LikeLike
This on Bolt:
http://www.timbremedia.com/podcast_directory/clawcasts/…iewwithkarlbolt.aspx
.
LikeLike
Technical difficulties
http://www.timbremedia.com/podcast_directory/clawcasts/aninterviewwithkarlbolt.aspx
LikeLike
In today’s market under 20 million a year you have to do it.
LikeLike
Rocky no use even talking this is the Phillies They only spend money on foulish investments. Lidge being the exeption
but they was Wade’s gift. Mostly the less they pay the better the player
LikeLike
this idea of moving utley anywhere is insane. the phillies have to sign howard, thats what you do with 28 year old players with 175 hrs. they certainly have the money. and as far as donald goes he WILL be a star at 3rd, if youve seen him play. happ and carrasco will be in next years rotation, the only big decision will be in lf. as ive said if this team does the right thing they should be a power for the next 8 to 10 years.
LikeLike
I believe the cheap owners in this case have no choice. They must get a deal with howard, Players like him don;t come along very offend . The fans won’t in this case buy into there small market talk. This ownership has done so many bad things like being cheap in the draft and letting players like Drew, workman, saunders, gibson walk. Tradeing superstar players like schilling and rolen and getting nothing back. yet they win two division titles, mostly because the mets G.M. has done a worst job in signing F.A. then us,De Luca,Alou, Castillo,Martinez,THe bullpen.
LikeLike
Please add Troy Glaus to that list He was picked right after
Drew.
Anything else we want from Wade for free??
LikeLike
Trade Myers to free up money???
LikeLike
What I hope doesn’t happen is that when burrell leaves they try to sell us on golson and werth as righthander outfielders and stairs and jenkins in a platoon situation. that would be a disaster.
LikeLike
Werth can look go good and go bad in the same inning or between two at bats. I wish they had poured the money for Jenkins down My drain. I was for getting McCouth
( 2007 328 ab / 61 runs) $380K)
note: to the new GM trade with someone dumber than you
LikeLike
I’m not fretting too much about Cardenas and Outman. In the 1970’s, Paul Ownes gave up prospects (Ruthven and Alan Bannister in the Jim Kaat deal; Mike Anderson for Ron Reed, Rick Bosetti as a sweetner in the Bake McBride deal) to help get the team over the top. Blanton wasn’t Cy Young, but he did go 4-0 and pitched at least passably in most of his games. That’s part of the role of the minor league systen–either fill needs directly or provide trade bait so that yo can get what you need. Sometimes (like this year), the future is now
LikeLike
People try to compare Bourn and Golson. The difference to me is what I saw of golson he makes defensive mistake. Bourn is a great fielder. As hitters both are not impressive.
LikeLike
Right Marc and the Phils gave up Ferg Jenkins and got Larry Jackson and Bob Buehl. The point is the Phils didnt even try their own horses and Blanton beat mostly dogs with five innings of work easily ,easily replaced
LikeLike
Lets put it this way. If your life depended on todays game
would YOU start Blanton or Happ.
LikeLike
Blanton!!!
LikeLike
Blanton without blinking (and before I knew the results)
LikeLike
Cheese Eaton could of beaton those guys.
Phils Most Valued player Corey Hart
Bone Head Move Starting Suppan not the kid
Victorino for president
LikeLike
I’d say your batting about .500 nowheels.
LikeLike
better than SO-SO anyway
LikeLike