The 2008 Phillies Dominican Summer League team failed to repeat the division winning year of its 2007 predecessor, but still had a successful season. The team finished at 35-30, 2nd place in the Santo Domingo North division, 6.5 games behind the division winning Mariners. It was a tale of two seasons for the Phillies. After a quick 6-3 start, the team stumbled through the rest of the first half going 6-20 in their next 26 games. This all turned around in the second half as the team won a scorching 23 of their final 30 games.
Unlike the 2007 team, which graduated an impressive 9 players to the Phillies 2008 GCL championship team, this year’s DSL squad was not as laden with prospects. The team age was roughly league average with an age of 18.3 on offense (compared to 18.5 league average) and an age of 18.9 on the pitching staff (exactly the 18.9 league average). The team did not provide much offense, hitting only .239 with a combined 12 HR and a team .644 OPS. The pitching staff, on the other hand, was stellar with a team 3.16 ERA and a .632 OPS against.
The Phillies did have their two high profile Latin American signings from 2007 on the DSL roster. SS Carlos Valenzuela received a reported $200,000 bonus, though he was not among the acknowledged first tier of Dominican prospects. The only other prospect to sign for more than $100,000 was RHP Gabriel Arias. Each of these top prospects had a disappointing season in some ways with more value being added in the next layer of anonymous and inexpensive prospects signed below them. The Phillies have been reticent to invest money in large Latin American bonuses in recent years with the last signing over $250,000 being Edgar Garcia who signed for $500,000 in October of 2004. This is a risky strategy, though the Phillies have had some recent success with small and mid-level bonuses. GCL catcher Sebastian Valle signed for a reported $38,000 in 2006.
In 2008 the Phillies have not announced any new signings from Latin America, though 2 new 16-year-old players did show up on the Instructional League roster. Those players are Venezuelan SS Nerio Rios and another OF from an undetermined country, Bernardo Solarte. Hopefully we will get some reports on these 2 new players from Clearwater in the coming weeks.
Getting back to the DSL Phillies, the top prospect lists is very heavy with pitchers. There are no apparent Sebastian Valle or Leandro Castro talents among the offensive players. In a list based heavily on performance, age, and notoriety, most of the younger offensive prospects had disappointing years. While the pitching staff was anchored by a couple of older starters in Pedro Carpio and Siulman Lebron, it also had a number of good performances from young, projectible pitchers to think that several of them will be heard from as prospects in the coming years.
The following is a very rough top 10 prospect list from the DSL team. Once again I caution everyone that this list is not composed from scouting reports. All we have are statistics, roster information, and some sense from playing time about which players the Phillies consider top prospects. In general, the better prospects will get more starts in the field and innings on the mound than lesser prospects. With all those caveats, here is the prospect list:
1. Juan Sosa – RHP (age 18) – Sosa is a holdover from last year’s team that did not get the GCL promotion most likely due to a numbers game. This season he improved his performance across the board, going 4-1 with a 1.37 ERA and outstanding peripheral stats (59 IP, 48 H, 25 BB, 60 K). His K rate especially improved, as he only struck out 28 batters in 47 IP last year.
2. Alvaro Basil – RHP (age 17) – Basil is somewhat of an unknown quantity as he appears to be a new 2008 signee who showed up on the roster midway through the season. While Basil only had limited innings (20), he dominated in those innings. He also fits the Phillies mold of projectible young pitchers with a 6’3″ 170 pound frame. Basil ended up 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA giving up only 9 hits with 5 BB and 21 K. While ideally we need to see more before ranking anyone this high on a prospect list, Basil had a debut worth noticing.
3. Daniel De La Cruz – RHP (age 17) – De La Cruz received the most innings of any young pitcher and acquitted himself nicely. He finished 5-2 with a 2.25 ERA (56 IP, 39 H, 30 BB, 51 K). While he needs to improve his control, the peripherals combined with projection (6’3″, 175) equal an intriguing prospect.
4. Jonathan Villan – SS (age 17) – While Carlos Valenzuela got all the publicity last offseason, Villan outplayed him in every statistical facet. Villan also garnered more playing time at SS as the two shared the position. This is a sign that the Phillies think as much of Villan defensively as they do Valenzuela. Villan hit .271 with 1 HR and 21 RBI. He also showed a well-rounded set of skills, drawing 30 BB and stealing 27 bases. While his .708 OPS will not break any records, he was holding his own at a young age while playing a valuable defensive position.
5. Gabriel Arias – RHP (age 18) – Arias was the second prospect other than Valezuela to get in the Baseball America signing summary. He is ranked in the middle of this list mainly because he did not earn a starting role. He pitched relatively well in limited time, going 3-3 with a 2.63 ERA (41 IP, 28 H, 16 BB, 30 K). The better prospects like De La Cruz were in the starting rotation, however, and his K rate was also mediocre. He is in the middle of this list largely on the strength of his signing bonus and the hope that his stuff is better than his playing time would indicate.
6. Pedro Carpio – RHP (age 20) – One of the two older pitchers that led the pitching staff, Carpio led the team in a number of categories. He ended up 7-4 with a 2.27 ERA. He pitched a team-leading 91 innings with decent peripheral stats (57 hits, 27 BB, 82 K). He ranks relatively low on the list because of his age (20) and the fact that he was in his 3rd DSL season. Better prospects usually merit GCL promotions after a year or two. This does not mean Carpio is not a prospect, as older players like Yohan Flande on this year’s GCL team have made the jump at a later age.
7. Marcos Coca – RHP (age 18) – Coca is another young, projectible pitcher (6’3″, 156) who put up decent numbers in limited action. Coca went 0-3 but had a 2.72 ERA. He gave up only 34 hits in 46.1 IP with 27 BB and 45 K.
8. Geancarlo Mendez – 1B/2B (age 17) – While Mendez is listed as a SS, he played most of the year at 1B. He had a decent year at the plate, hitting .269 with 2 HR and 28 RBI. Mendez ended up with a .715 OPS, something that might play if he is actually a middle infielder, but a performance that is lacking at 1B.
9. Dario Alvarez – LHP (age 19) – Alvarez was the lone LHP on the team and had a good year after a very wild debut in 2007 (29 BB and 50 K in 36.1 IP). Alvarez settled down and went 4-2 with a 3.23 ERA. He threw many more strikes with only 24 BB in 53 IP (44 hits, 51 K). It remains to be seen whether Alvarez has plus stuff, or is just one of those lefties with an odd motion that often give young hitters some problems.
10. Carlos Valenzuela – SS (age 17) – There are 200,000 reasons why Carlos Valenzuela is on this list. Performance was not one of them. Valenzuela improved somewhat during the season’s final month, hitting .283 to finish right at the Mendoza line (.200). Valenzuela had 2 HR and 22 RBI. He walked a little (25 BB) and has some speed (18 SB without getting on base much), but it all equaled an OPS of only .557. Even his hot August did not translate into a high OPS, as his limited power and OBP gave him a .737 OPS for the month. The Phillies will give Valenzuela more chances because of his bonus. Hopefully he has the tools to justify that bonus in the coming years.
A handful of additional players are also worth mentioning. Miguel Alvarez (CF) and Rudney Balentien (LF) are two 18-year-old OFs that have shown occasional promise, though not enough offense to get excited about. Luis Paulino is an 18-year-old 3B that led the team with 34 RBI yet had little power (0 HR, 4 3B). On the mound Sergio Mendez got some time as a 16-year-old (16.2 IP, 5.40 ERA) and Felix Cespedes (24.2 IP, 5.11 ERA) as a 17-year-old. Finally, Francique Charles is the team’s second signing from Haiti (after Reginal Simon). While he only pitched 5.2 IP, he was not scored on and may be a raw pitcher because of his background coming from a country that does not play a great deal of baseball.
That is it for the summer season in terms of International updates. Next up will be updates on Phillies playing in some of the Latin American winter leagues. We will also add anything we find on the new signing class as information becomes available.
Thanks Andy.
I’d guess Sosa will come stateside next spring, possibly Dario Alvarez too.
Valenzuela, what a disappoint. Then again, $200K these days is a 3rd/4th tier prospect in Latin America, so I guess its not all that surprising.
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Very good stuff. Hopefully some of these young pitchers fill out.
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Just wondering, Does anyone remember a High School draft choice who got his velocity up from say 88 to high 90’s. Just thinking if its possibe for a pitcher to increase his velocity 8 to 10 while in the minors .
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I would guess that 4 or 5 of these players will come to GCL next year. Carpio probably has earned it even if he is not a top prospect. Sosa definitely. Then I suspect a couple more of the younger arms. On offense I could see one of the two SS getting the promotion, most likely Villan. That would clear DSL playing time next year for the other. I don’t think we’ll see 9 players again. We will have several HS pitchers from this year’s draft that might be at GCL again next year, depending on how Instructional league goes.
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The one thing about the internaional market. You never really know how old these kids are. They lie and use cousin and relation id to get signed.
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Rocky, I believe the events of 9/11 have changed that. These guys are required to provide more valid information as they will need it to enter this country to play.
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*coughs* Miguel Tejada *coughs*
We just found out about him…I agree that 9/11 drastically cut down on it though.
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I didn’t know that thank you for telling me.
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“Does anyone remember a High School draft choice who got his velocity up from say 88 to high 90’s”
Mark Wholers
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Sorry, Wohlers- a 7th round pick out of massachusetts in 1990
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Scott Mathieson according to Baseball America prospect handbook 2004 indicated that his fastball was only 84 mph in high school when the Phillies drafted him in 2002. By 2004 his velocity had increased to a consistent 90-91 mph with top velocity touching 94. THe 2005 handbook had him touching 95. The 2006 handbook had him touching 96. The 2007 Baseball America handbook had him touching 97. I was at the last game he pitched in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in Aug 2006 five days before he blew out his arm to the second batter in a game in Philly. In the game in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre every fastball he threw was 95, 96 or 97 mph. The gun there was always considered slow. Throwing that hard that consistently may be why his elbow gave out.
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I don’t mean to say it’s changed anything current but to obtain entry into the U.S. the standards are different now. Someone like Tejada had established his work visa, or whatever his situation is now.
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