Tuesday Notes

Just a few random tidbits today

* JA Happ had one of the best starts of his professional career last night, going 6 shutout innings allowing only 1 hit, walking 2 and striking out 9. Its been a somewhat inconsistent season for Happ, and despite the Phillies hinting Carrasco would be the first callup, I think its still Happ. Unlike Carrasco, he’s on the 40 man roster, and he’s pitched very well over the last month or so, sporting a 2.92 ERA in 24.2 June innings, walking only 6 while striking out 28.

* Brad Harman has HR in back to back games. Is it time for his annual second half surge? He has 7 HR this season after hitting 13 all of last year in Clearwater. If he can get into the 15-18 range with a big second half, it would help his cause to become a future big league utility guy. At this point there’s nowhere for him to start, but if his bat continues to develop he could find a role on the team at some point next season.

* Vance Worley got his big league career off on the right foot, going 4 innings and allowing only 1 hit and 0 walks to go along with 4 K. As a college guy, Worley should do well in the NYPL, which also generally favors pitchers in a big way. While he seems like a guy who could probably move very quickly if converted to a late inning reliever, he’s always had good raw stuff, he just hasn’t unlocked it. So far so good.

* After getting lit up on June 8th, Edgar Garcia has thrown back to back solid outings, the latest being last night’s 7 innings of 2 run ball, allowing 5 hits and a walk to go with 8 strikeouts. The knock on Garcia at this point is inconsistency, but he’s only 20 and pitching well in the FSL. If you remove his nightmarish 1.2 IP, 6 ER outing 3 starts ago, his overall line is 71.2 IP — 3.41 ERA — 70 H — 19 BB — 68 K….nothing wrong with that. Consistency will be key for him as he continues to climb.

89 thoughts on “Tuesday Notes

  1. Were you reading my mind about Happ, Garcia and Harman, or what? Spot on comments – great stuff.

    Everyone is wondering what the Phillies should do to improve their team for a playoff run. There have been complaints about the hitting, but I think they’re misplaced – they’re just in a cold spell. The real concern is the starting pitching. I’m not against them acquiring a starting pitcher, but it seems to me that, before doing so, they really ought to try to audition a couple of minor leaguers and see if they’re up to the task. I think now’s the time to promote Happ and I’m not entirely against the promotion of Carrasco if that doesn’t work out or Carrasco gets on a good roll. Let’s see if one of them can step up before we go trading Lou Marson, Adrian Cardenas, Jason Donald or Antonio Bastardo. There’s still time.

  2. I think Happ is officially at the point where he’s wasting bullets in the minors. He should certainly be the first starter called up when we need one (assuming Benson doesn’t miraculously turn himself into a lights out starter in the time being), and he should be given every chance to win the fifth starter’s role next season.

    And MiLB doesn’t have probables yet, but if the rotations hold, we’re looking at starts tonight by: Sampson (Lakewood), Savery (Clearwater), and Brummett (Reading). So it should be a good night for scoreboard watching.

  3. I still feel like Garcia is the number one sleeper in our entire system. He obviously hasn’t put it all together yet and there’s even a slight air of disappointment around him… but if you look at the numbers and his age, he’s getting better as he moves up and he’s always young for his league. From what I remember, his stuff sounds fine. What’s not to like?

  4. As far as callups and trades are concerned, who gets demoted (assuming there is no injury) to either the bullpen or the minors? Everyone wants it to be eaton, but he is arguably the second best and consistant starter we have, plus he makes a ton this year. Can we demote Kendrick? I think that would kill his confidence (which already seems fragile). Myers? Would/Could they ever do that?

    It seems like Myers is the problem. My vote is for a Drew Carpenter-esque DL trip for myers for him to get his head in the game and maybe do some conditioning and throwing exercises. And i vote Happ to replace his turn in the rotation for at least 2 starts. Thoughts?

  5. Happ & Jaramillo appear ready to become full-time major leaguers, and are ripe to be traded.

  6. All of the sudden the minor league department must have told the managers to shut down the starters after 6 innings and 100 pitches or so. After Brummett goes 8.2 and 122 pitchers we see both Carrasco 101 pitches, and Happ 95 pitches pulled while leading after 6 innings. Let’s see if Brummett can come back after his marathon in his last start tonight.

    Now that Harman is in the 3 hole he is starting to hit. For some reason they had him buried in the 6 or 7 hole most of the season until Golson went down. Must be seeing better pitchers to hit in front of Marson and Slayden. He hit second in the FSL playoffs last year when he hit .344 in front of Donald, Slayden and Marson .

  7. I wouldn’t mind if they put Myers on th trade market- he seems like a guy who would do well with a change of scenery.

    As for replacing him, as far as the current rotation is concerned, Carrasco and Happ seem to make the same amount of sense. The phillies really don’t like to have back-to-back lefties in thier starting rotation, so Carrasco would make more sense in that regard. But Happ is already on the 40-man and, as stated above, is really wasting bulletts in meaningless games if we keep him in the minors any longer, while Carrasco still has some room for improvement.

  8. I don’t think anyone on the Phillies roster is in danger of getting demoted to Lehigh Valley. A week ago, I might’ve said Brett Myers, but he bought more time with that last start. Gillick said players on the major league roster could be traded, especially those at crowded positions. If that happened, players(Golson? Jaramillo?) would be called up, not sent down.

    I could see Myers replacing Gordon in the ‘pen, unless one of our starters is included in a deal for another starter. Apparently a high-ranking Astros scout was in CBP the other day…

  9. At this point, Jaramillo and Ruiz appear to be roughly interchangeable, so you could trade either without worrying about it very much, particularly since EVERYONE at the catching position is basically keeping the seat warm until Sweet Lou arrives. That having been said, I doubt they’ll trade Ruiz as they don’t want a minor league catcher leading a team to the playoffs (I can’t blame them). Jaramillo is, therefore, probably high on the lists of players on the block. Also, don’t be surprised if Savery is on the list. We might also have to give up Michael Taylor.

  10. Savery’s value probably dropped significantly this year. He was a top 100 prospect going into 2008, and now I’m not sure he’s even in our organizational top 10. He still has value, of course, but he won’t anchor a deal.

  11. I hate for this to become defendjoesavery.com, but take a look at Ross Detwiler’s numbers this season

    60.0 IP — 5.70 ERA — 72 H — 32 BB — 58 K — 1.51 GO:AO

    Compared to Savery

    82.2 IP — 4.84 ERA — 105 H — 36 BB — 68 K — 2.04 GO:AO

    Detwiler was taken 6th overall by the Nats out of Missouri. At the time everyone praised the pick, saying Detwiler was a polished arm who could move fast. The Nats skipped Detwiler over Low A just as the Phillies did with Savery. Detwiler has gotten absolutely hammered. He’s 6 months younger than Savery, thats it.

    No one is saying Detwiler is a bust yet, though his stock is down. The point is, there is plenty of time. Plenty of time.

  12. Apparently not everyone agrees that Savery value has significantly dropped. This from BBA’s Jim Callis’s weekly Chat:

    Teddy (State College): The best pitching prospect in the Phillies’ system is….

    Jim Callis: Joe Savery.

  13. I’m dumbfounded that Taguchi is still on the roster after his efforts Sat and Sun. I have to think the Phils would love to replace him with someone that can run and field but Golson cooled off and is now hurt and Brandon Watson just isn’t that exciting. As for pitching, I expect a trade to add a lefty to the pen and it wouldn’t surprise me if they traded Madson for someone like Fuentes. I think the Phillies need another top arm if they hope to make noise in the playoffs. If the goal is to win it all and not just make the playoffs, and I think Gillick badly wants to go out a winner, they’ll trade for another power starting pitcher. They don’t need another soft tosser though, they need a power arm like CC or Oswalt. Let’s remember who the Houston GM is and realize that he might like to bring in some young talent that he drafted and that Oswalt make lots of money. Goodbye Carrasco, maybe Donald, and maybe Jarramillo but hello Roy Oswalt. Yes, I’d like that very much and Oswalt, a fierce competitor would love Philly.

  14. I’d take Oswalt if we could get him on the cheap… I wouldn’t give up Carrasco for him.

    And Jaramillo and Ruiz aren’t really interchangagle… Ruiz has major league experience and is the prefered catcher for our Ace. I’m sure from an organizational perspective he is much more valuable.

    As for Taguchi.. why not replace him with Javon Moran? I mean, Moran might not be the most electrifying outfeilder in our system but he holds his own against AAAA pitching and at this point David Ortiz would be a better defensive replacement than Taguchi.

  15. Why would anyone want Oswalt?

    He’s due $45m over the next 3 years. Unless Ed Wade picks up a huge portion of that tab, I’d rather nab Sabathia and at least get 2 compensatory picks and use the saved $$ to upgrade other areas.

    Ughh, Oswalt. Only if Houston picks up 50-65% of that salary and it didn’t cost me Carrasco/Cardenas/Golson/Marson/Victorino/Savery/Taylor/Spencer

  16. I agree with Catch 22 and PP in that they should see what they have in Happ and Carrasco before they make a trade. Happ would be my first choice for all the aforementioned reasons.

    Ed, someone will get hurt soon or miss a start for some reason. The fact that it hasn’t happened yet flies in the face of all probabilities. They’ll need a 6th starter soon. I say it should be Happ.

    http://www.defendjoesavery.com – that has a nice ring to it

  17. If any GM rates Savery higher than Carrasco, Drabek, Bastardo, Outman, Naylor and Happ, please call Pat Gillick with your offer.

  18. I would have no problem with the Phillies trading for Oswalt as long as they are strictly picking up salary and not giving up prospects (similar to the Abreu deal with the Yankees)..

    Oswalt has been shaky so far this season but is a real high reward type of player.

    The obvious wildcard is if he is actually hiding an injury but he still appears to be throwing in the mid 90’s so that doesn’t seem to be the issue.

    Also note that he has a full no-trade clause so it might not matter what the Astros want to do.

  19. Oswalt had that weird thing with his manager this year where he told him he couldnt pitch the next inning because he was sore/hurt/tired, but he sent him out anyway only to get smashed and removed, he almost missed a start after that and has been very hittable all year….. there is definitely something wrong there, not a year ending injury, but there is something bothering him this year….

  20. Don’t be worried about Ed Wade picking up some of the tab… aren’t we STILL paying for Jim Thome? If I remember correctly he was the mastermind behind that brilliant deal.

  21. im glad to see my man donald starting to exert himself . 303 8 hrs 860 ops in a shortened season. put him at 3rd where he belongs. by the way the word is oswalt for marson, carrasco, bastardo, and wirth. i hate to give up marson but as for the rest of the deal ill do it yesterday. throw in jaramillo. who was it that kept telling me salery didnt matter to the phillies ?

  22. I wouldn’t look for Taguchi to go anywhere as he is playing with a guaranteed major league contract of $900,000 and as cheap as the Phillies are, they will not want to eat that money.

  23. Yea, Your right. My mistake. Its just a phillies’ phan habit to atribute any type or organizational stupidity to Ed Wade, whether he was responsible for it or not.

  24. by the way the word is oswalt for marson, carrasco, bastardo, and wirth.

    Whew, as long as we don’t have to give up Jayson WERTH I’m ok with it, this Wirth guy is minor league filler

  25. I think and hope Edgar Garcia is primed for a good second half. His K/IP rate is up very nicely this year and his BB/IP rate is steady and good. It’s his H/IP rate that will determine his success. He’s shown signs of pitching good games lately since his DL stint, but then has a clunker thrown in there to ruin things. An ERA below 3.40 for the season would be nice.

  26. Oswalt’s not worth Marson, Carrasco and Werth. If we were going to give up that much we might as well get Sabathia.

  27. Baxter,

    Drabek has obvious upside, but why would you rate him higher RIGHT NOW than Savery?

  28. Believe me, the Phillies aren’t parting with both Carrasco AND Marson in any deal.

  29. Speaking of Drakek, shouldn’t he be pitching soon? I can’t wait to have another guy to watch.

  30. PP – since when does saying “see, someone else is playing equally horrible and no one is on his case” a defense for someone’s prospect status? i think that you have lost objectivity on that comment. maybe this guy comes around in a year or two, but right now, you have to rate Savery as a very low probability prospect who is stairing at a repeat year at A ball next year unless something dramatically changes in the second half. as such, i think that Savery is not even worth discussing in the context of a trade, because a major league GM is not going to trade for a 22 year old pitcher with a history of arm troubles who is getting lit up in A ball unless he is the last throw in to a deal and his “option” is worth more to us than that so he won’t go anywhere.

    i do think that happ having a nice next 3-4 weeks could make him very attactive as the #2 or #3 guy in a trade.

    my bet is something like victorino, carrasco (or bastardo) and happ for bedard or oswalt. CC is too much money for us i think and if we trade victorino, then we will be forced to re-sign pat the bat.

  31. If the Phillies are sure they are trading for a Starter, then replace Condrey with Myers in the pen and bring Happ up.

    Madson for Fuentes and the bullpen rocks. Gordon can rest and be ready with his tight curveball in September. Gordon was overused significantly to record Holds, as we got the lead we have now.

    Then when the salvation trade arrives he will slot in for Kendrick or Eaton. Has anyone noticed that we have used only the 12 pitchers we brought north with us? What a difference a year makes.

  32. Actually with Ed Wade’s love for relief pitchers, I would have to think that Outman and Madson would have to be included in any deal involving Oswalt!!

  33. I don’t have to rate Savery anywhere. Completely downgrading a prospect 1 year after he was drafted (in the first round) is beyond foolish. The comparison to Detwiler was that even highly drafted guys struggle in their debuts. If Savery had started at Lakewood and carved guys up, you’d likely be one of those people chomping at the bit for him to be promoted and saying how good he is.

    My point is, people need to stop worrying about Savery right now. At the end of the season we’ll re-evaluate it. But he wouldn’t be the first guy double jumped out of college to really struggle in his first full season, only to rebound and look a completely different player the following season.

  34. just a note, oswalt is the best post season pitcher of the bunch, of course bedard hasnt exactly had the chance to shine like bob gibson. forget sabathia to much money for 4 months and resigning,not my decision, and his post season stats are not good. oswalt or bedard. myers to the 6,7 or 8th. he has a 1 inning head. check the stats. or remember what you saw.

  35. Your saying that your opinion on Savery has not decreased at all given his strougles this year? and that his probability of success hasn’t gone down in your mind? further, by all reports that i have read, his stuff is not very good and there are injury concerns. none of that drops his prospect status?

    come on

  36. kendrick IS he worth tradeing he opens a spot in the rotation for who ever we get?

  37. To back up phuturephillies: let’s look at everyone’s favorite Lakewood pair right now, Naylor and Taylor. They’ve struggled early in the FSL (though it’s obviously a ridiculously small sample size), but because they were world beaters in the SAL, they can probably struggle a ton at Clearwater and people will cut them a lot more slack than Savery.

    Finally, a hypothetical question for you, James: if Savery continues to put up the same numbers for the whole year (so, 140-150 innings), do you think he stays at Clearwater to start next year? (Obviously it’s too early to make judgments like that, but you wondering…)

  38. John from Philly- you actually care about post-season performance? It’s such a small sample size unless you played on the Yankees, Sox or Braves for the past 15 years.

  39. Yea, Tornado read my mind. Taking Oswalt because of post-season success is like benching Utley because of lack of it. It all just depends on when a player is hot.

  40. Your saying that your opinion on Savery has not decreased at all given his strougles this year? and that his probability of success hasn’t gone down in your mind? further, by all reports that i have read, his stuff is not very good and there are injury concerns. none of that drops his prospect status?

    You’ve said this now at least 10 times. For some reason I keep replying. Find me ONE scout or source that says his stuff is “not very good”. You’re looking solely at his raw numbers from 3 months in High A ball. You’re not reading the scouting reports, you’re not reading what others are saying. Callis (BA) and Goldstein (BP) still have good things to say about him, even with his struggles.

    Lets be realistic. You didn’t like the pick then, you don’t like it now, and you just want to be “that guy” who constantly rips on one prospect, regardless of the situation. Thats fine, every outlet always seems to have that guy, but I won’t address it anymore.

    PhillyFriar, I think if he struggles in the 2nd half he’ll repeat, and then move up to Reading in June next year after he gets things going.

  41. *** Find me ONE scout or source that says his stuff is “not very good”. ***

    Here’s one from KG:
    96. Joe Savery, LHP, Phillies
    Eligible Next Year? Yes
    Production: 4.69 ERA at High-A (78.2-99-33-64)
    Stock Report: Down. After a good start to the season, Savery has been getting hammered of late, giving up 57 hits in his last 35 2/3 innings. Some scouts are worried that something else is wrong, as his stuff has been way off as well.

  42. Oh get off it, Savery will be fine. And if he isn’t then who cares it wouldn’t be the worst late 1st round draft pick ever, will it.

    And quoting that doesn’t mean you’ve been off doing research, it just means you troll around and get all of your info on this site. Besides, he just said that his stuff is CURRENTLY off, not that he doesn’t have any. It wasn’t a comprehensive scouting report it was a paragraph long blurb.

  43. The Goldstein report, as Skunky (welcome aboard by the way) points out, just says that his stuff is currently off, and hints it might be an injury. He doesn’t say he sucks, or he’s no good, he says something is off right now.

    This was Goldstein’s comment on Savery from his Phillies Top 11, where he ranked Savery on the same Tier (4 star) as Carrasco

    The Good: Savery’s arm strength slowly returned throughout the spring, and by the end of the year he was back to his usual low 90s gas, with the ability to dial it up to 93-95 mph at times. Like Carrasco, he has a highly-advanced changeup, and his power curveball is at least average. He’s an outstanding athlete who was a two-way star in college, and team officials think his stuff could take a step forward across the board now that he’s dedicated full-time to pitching.

    The Bad: Savery’s command comes and goes, and he had significant trouble throwing strikes during a brief Arizona Fall League stint. As a pitcher from Rice who has already had one surgery, his long-term health is a concern.

    Perfect World Projection: Savery’s ceiling is at least the same, if not a little higher than Carrasco’s, but he’s also further from it.

    Timetable: Providing that Savery is healthy and throwing strikes, he could skip a level and begin his 2008 season in the High-A Florida State League rotation.

    I’d say thats far from “he’s just not very good”

  44. Seems to me that this report is saying the exact opposite of what your trying to prove. It specifically states that there is some concern about injury BECAUSE his stuff has been off.

    That would indicate that the scouts think he DOES have good stuff but for some reason, it hasn’t been showing up during his outings.

    I certainly don’t read this to say that he has injury concerns AND his stuff isn’t very good.

  45. ok. last point i will make on savery this season (i promise).

    i never said, “he’s just not very good”. all i said was his prospect status has diminished and it is questionable whether he will achieve his potential. i just think that people over rate him right now.

  46. The big concern, as is the concern with most Rice pitchers, is health. The ONLY reason Savery got to us in the first round was his medical record. Had he never been hurt, he’d have likely been a Top 10 pick. After his freshman year, if he was draft eligible, he’d have been a mid first round pick.

    Yes, he’s struggling now. Yes, I’m concerned about his health, but I think the former is possibly being affected by the latter. We gave Greg Golson 3-4 years before starting to write him off, I’m willing to give Savery more than 3-4 months before saying hes not very good or has no chance.

  47. Oswalt for Marson, Carrasco, Bastardo and Werth? I make that trade in a Philly minute if I’m ED WADE. This would be a horrible, potentially franchise-altering move for the Phillies.

    People who haven’t been watching Jason Werth should pay attention to him, just a little bit. I am telling you that, not only should the Phillies not trade him, they should sign him to a 4 or 5 year contract. He is just about to hit on all cylinders. He’s always had a world of potential, but various things kept getting in his way, including a debilitating wrist injury that is now fully healed. I hope somebody who reads this post saw the game where he hit three home runs. It’s not just the 3 homers that were so impressive, it’s how he hit them. Werth crushed at least two of the homers way out of the park TO THE OPPOSITE FIELD. It was amazing. Werth also is pretty fast, has a great arm and excellent plate discipline. You can laugh all you want, but Werth is going to have some very fine major league seasons before he’s done. Jason Werth is not a stiff, he’s very capable.

    Now, trading Werth alone for Oswalt would give me pause (although I’d probably do it), but adding Bastardo, Marson and Carrasco? It’s insane. If they do something like this I’d be tempted not to watch the team for a couple of years. It would have the potential to be the worst trade the team ever made and I am not exaggerating.

  48. I like Werth, but to not trade him for Oswalt straight up, the second it’s offered, is a bit much.

  49. Since when do “scouts” publish their opinions?

    A lot of 1st round picks don’t even make the major leagues. Showing that Savery isn’t the worst in his class doesn’t change the fact that he’s struggling in Clearwater a year after people predicted he’d be the Phillies #3 starter by 2009. Hopefully he IS hurting, because the alternative would be much worse.

  50. Who predicted that he’d be the #3 starter BY 2009? Fans with ridiculous expectations only. Anybody with some brains would know you have to give pitchers time, especially, someone who’s coming off a bit of an injury. There’s nothing wrong with a guy struggling in his first year in the minors.

  51. Hey, I said I’d do Werth for Oswalt (assuming we think Oswalt is healthy – no more Freddy Garcias please) straight up and I’d even throw in some high second-tier prospects. For example, in my view, Oswalt for Werth, Bastardo and Galvis would be a decent trade. I’d take that. Or I’d trade Oswalt for a high tier prospect not named Marson and some lesser prospects. For instance, Oswalt for Carrasco, Bolt and Castro would be a close call, but I’d do it. You’d give up some upside but you wouldn’t be left without good prospects the next day.

  52. Remember we’re dealing with Ed Wade, so throw in as many Travis Lees, Nelson Figueroas, and Omar Daals as you can find. Ed actually thinks players like this are worth something. Ed Wade can be bamboozled.

  53. Catch 22, don’t the Phillies control Werth for a few more years? I don’t know if I’m ready to annoint him the 2nd coming, I would trade him for Oswalt yesterday but he is an excellent 4th outfielder with potential to be a solid starter in right or center.

    If Jaramillo read the blogs like Golson does you would think he’d start getting concerned the way these guys below him are raking.

  54. Savery himself said “mid-2008 or opening day 2009 at the latest”, which was a little ambitious, but a lot of people expected him to be starting for the Phils before the end of the 2009 season. Now he’s struggling against players younger than him. He’s not a raw talent- he was supposed to be a safe pick.

  55. Savery himself said “mid-2008 or opening day 2009 at the latest”, which was a little ambitious, but a lot of people expected him to be starting for the Phils before the end of the 2009 season. Now he’s struggling against players younger than him. He’s not a raw talent- he was supposed to be a safe pick.

    Thats incorrect. He was a 2 way player for 3 seasons at Rice. He never pitched full time. His game wasn’t polished. People saw “college pitcher, major program” and assumed he’d be fast tracked. I commented in my Top 30 this winter that if everything went right, he could make it to Reading. He has very lofty ambitions for himself, I won’t fault him for that. And knowing that, he probably started to struggle this season, he tried pushing harder and it only made things worse. Lots of guys get to pro ball, they struggle against good competition for the first time in their baseball careers, and they press. I’m sure that is at work here.

    People need to seriously relax. I’m not one for telling people what their opinion of a player should be, but the mass panic on Savery is borderline laughable. We’re talking about a highly decorated kid in high school, who went to one of the 4 or 5 biggest baseball programs in the country, and then was injured. He didn’t get to Rice because he had no ability, and he didn’t get drafted in the first round after being injured for half the year because he didn’t have talent.

  56. ****Oswalt for Werth, Bastardo and Galvis would be a decent trade. I’d take that.****

    As long as the words “Pending completion of a full physical” were included in the deal, I’d do it too. Werth can be replaced (his name is Kenny Lofton), I still see Bastardo as a reliever and Galvis is so far away that he won’t even be missed for 4 more years. He’s got great potential but he’s only 18.

  57. **the mass panic on Savery is borderline laughable.**

    it is comments like that that draw me back into posting on the subject. which i won’t except to defend against that comment and claearly say that no one is panicing. no one is saying cut the guy or even demote him (which might actually be best all things considered). no one is writting him off. only reflecting his performance on his prospect status.

  58. Tyler Cloyd pitched well today going 5 IP,0ER, 3k’s.

    Talented arm that dropped out of Nebraska.

  59. victrino is the philly most likely to go. i like werth. don’t get me wrong. but victorino is a boarderline gold glover in center, a potential top 5 base stealer and a top of the order guy. he is also 27 making 500k per year and 3 years away from FA while worth is 29 and making 1.5 per year.

    actually, i think that victorino from a prodivity per salary dollar perspective is one of the most valuable players in all of baseball. you are talking about a young, and very productive guy for basically free at 500k per year.

    further, moving him allows us to save prospects by taking back a bad contract like Adrian Beltre. i think something realistic is bedard and beltre for victorino, cardenas and happ.

  60. What are the chances that either Gus Milner or Clay Harris gets promoted to Reading any time soon (not to mention Cardenas)? Harris appears to be on the very periphery of maintaining any sort of prospect status in that he’ll be turning 26 before the end of the season, but he’s put up some pretty solid numbers in limited ab’s in High A. I don’t see what point there is in leaving him there all year at his age. As for Milner, the power that one might have hoped for with his size still doesn’t seem to have developed, but his baserunning and plate discipline are both above average, and as another older college player, it’d probably be worth pushing him a bit at this point as well. If Reading were somehow to end up in the playoffs with a lineup of:

    C-Marson
    1B-Harris
    2B-Cardenas
    3B-Harman
    SS-Donald
    LF-Slayden
    CF-Golson
    RF-Milner

    I could easily see them capturing the Eastern League crown, and making it 3 straight league championships for the core of that team.

  61. I’m all in favor of giving Lou Marson time to develop, but after watching Carlos Ruiz kill yet another bases loaded situation by grounding into yet another inning-ending double play, I pose this question: how much of an improvement would Marson be on Ruiz right now?

  62. Doesn’t Brummet deserve his own page on the left? Holding down a sub-5 era at AA after being a 7th round pick last year is respectable! He might end up being the fast-tracked college pitcher we’re all waiting for!

  63. Oh, Marson would be a huge improvement. His first at-bat he would melt the faces of the of the opposing team with his awesomeness like when the open the Ark of the Covenant in Raiders of the Last Ark. I don’t know if the Lounacy can safely be unleashed yet frankly.

  64. Roth had his 2nd good outing at Williamsport. Where did this kid come from? I see he’ll be 20 in August. D’Arnaud was 3 for 4. Haislet continues to hit. It looks like Williamsport will be interesting to watch. I know there isn’t much expected from this team but there may be a few guys to watch.

  65. I think Marson would have to be a pretty big improvement offensively, but defensively Ruiz is an excellent catcher.

    I say they just start Coste more often and leave Lou to develop at his own pace though.

  66. Bellman (and everyone else, of course) –

    I also noticed that Overbeck has a hit in every game so far for Williamsport. He also has a homer and 7 rbis. Nice start for him – he’s not clobbering the ball or anything (.281 average), but looks very consistent

    – Jeff

  67. Hey John from Philly:
    You said ‘the word is” re: Oswall? What word is that? Who gave the word to you?

    You know what we know which is what we read/hear from guys who don’t really know any more than we do. GM’s don’t advertise their deals ahead of time. We all know nothing. We THINK a lot though.

    As to the Phillies, of ocurse money matters to them. They are at 108 million now and they get dizzy up there. They will try to find a “bargain”, like Garcia. They like ‘bargains”.
    But good pitchers cost big money and teams don’t let go of good pitchers without very good reasons. If you want to overpay, you got a chance. If you want to underpay, you can sign Randy Wolf – again.

    As to prospects, what is a prospect? The best minds at BA are wrong as often as they are right. Pro scouts can’t get it right despite putting all their time and lots of money into it. How many times have you heard the word “crapshoot”.

    For me, I just look at results. Do it on the field. If someone performs at one level, I move him up and see if he can do it at the next level. If he can’t, I drop him back down. I don’t like guys defining ability in an office. Let the players do it on the field.

    Oh yes, John, I know who you are. I hear that line about “my donald” or “my bastardo” as if you own them or somehow found them under a rock. We all have been watching these kids – and others – for a long time. They are nobody’s secret.

    Bastardo has had amazing success but as he progresses he has run into more problems. This was predicted right here on this site. It’s hard to know where this kid’s future is. Same with Happ. He has some great outings. But he also has some bad ones. And he has been in the system forever – he is 26.
    Carrasco is the same. he pitches well at times, not so well at other times and has a fairly high WHIP which I don’t like. They say he has “lightening stuff” but I don’t know about that. I just look at results and wait a reasonable time, then I make a decision. Carrasco is going on 22 and this is his second spin at Reading. He is doing okay but nothing to rave aboutt. At least, not so far.

    So Happ is good but – .
    Crrasco is good but –
    Bastardo is good but –

    None of them is a sure thing to ever pitch in the majors.
    I am now watching Brummett, Garcia, Moonasterios (when he gets back) and Drew Naylor hoping one of them turns out to be a surprise. But I don’t see any gems right now.

    Maybe Brummett will be a middle of the rotation pitcher for the Phillies next year. He has that UCLA background and he does handle himself well.Time will tell.

    As to position players, who do you like? Golson? Nah. Donald? Nah (unless he can play 3rd). Cardenas? Sure but where do you play him? Marson? Yea he looks like he may be our next catcher if we don’t trade him. A surprise next year might be Jeremy Slayden or Michael Taylor. But surper star prospects are scarce in the Phillies system. I don’t think they draft well at all.

    But I watch and I hope because like all of you, I am a fan and hope spring eternal – and all that.

    joey

  68. P P Fan makes sense.
    The liklihood is Victorino because they have a back up in Werth. I would think Victorino plus Carrasco plus one take-your-choice player excluding maybe Marson. By that I mean maybe Happ, Golson, Donald, or Cardenas. I would expect Oswall in return. But the real problem probably isn’t who we give up, it’s how much payroll are the Phillies willing to assume? Good pitchers get big money. Hell, I’d take Greg Maddux but he makes 10.5 million and they won’t pay that. Sabathia and Oswall and Sweet all make over 11 million. These guys are at 108 million. They didn'[t want to be there and they probably still don’t. Who can they get rid of to save some money in order to take one of these pitchers?
    Howard? Burrell? They are like pack rats – if they are going to spend a lot, they like to cut a lot. I think they will take on maybe a 5-10% increase for the year but not much more.

    Unless John Middleton can affect some changes inside the owenrship group. I hear he would like to buy more of the team. My advice to Claire is: sell it to him. John is like us, he is a true fan. He would make things happen.

    Joey

  69. Yes Catch 22, Jason Werth does look like a comer if he can play every day. He is the type player they could slide into the batting order between Utley and Howard taking a little pressure off Howard. Jason makes contact.

    That’s why I think any trade will involve Victornio. to make way for Werth. Carrasco may be added along with a second tier prospect. And Oswall would be the pitcher to come here with Houston picking up part of this tab.

    Makes sense for Houston. IF they are tired of Bourne’s .190 or if they like the idea of blinding speed at the top of their lineup with Bourne and Victorino hitting #1, #2.

    But we’ll see what happens.

    Joey

  70. Dang joey, got anything else to say? haha.

    I’d say your mostly right about the Werth-Victorino dilly-o… I think I’d rather keep Werth if I had to choose between the two. Victorino has more trade value anyway… and Werth can keep center warm until Golson is ready. I’m keeping my fingers crossed.

    We would have to be really careful though…. They are both kind of injury prone and So Taguchi just isn’t going to do the trick as a long term injury replacement.

  71. In Reading last night Amaro Jr. watched the first inning of the game before moving around the stands then returned to his seat behind home plate to watch Bisenius in the 7th and Overholt in the 8th and 9th. Brummett’s 90 mph fast ball was hit hard almost every time contact was made but his off speed change up and curve at 78-82 mph kept them off balanced enough to allow him to struggled thru 6 innings. Bisenius was sharp with his fast ball in the mid 90’s and a late breaking ball for a 1-2-3, 7th. Overholt must have a dead arm, was hitting only 90 with his fastball and lacked control. Donald hit a two run rocket to right center for his 9th homer of the year and despite missing 11 games or so is in on pace to hit 18-20 homers. Marson took a called third strike which was outside wide of the plate in the first but rebounded in the 9th with his hard hit patented ground ball single to right. All in all, Jr. had to be pleased with the continued progress of Bisenius, Donald and Marson but that was about it.

  72. bp, you stated you see Reading easily capturing the EL crown if they somehow make the playoffs. How can they do this when they are in last place and have the worst record in the league? They don’t split the seasons in AA like they do in A ball, you know.
    So Amaro Jr.s was at the Reading game last night, eh? That’s like a blind man golfing.

  73. to joey, re: is simply an abbreviation for regarding. i wasnt aware that i would become an english teacher. as far as bastardo and donald you may not be aware of it but they are my clients i am pursuing other money making clients right now. i think i hear naylor at my office door right now. this is whats called a joke joe

  74. joey – you have made reference to bastardo struggling in reading a few times. i don’t know what you are looking at, but it is something very different then what i am looking at.

    from my vantage point, bastardo was off to a great start after making a the biggest leap in minor league ball. 6 of 9 starts were sub 2.00 ERA. an overall era of 3.11 (which is very, very good) and an era of 2.57 if you take away his worst start. He had a bit of wildness, but his BAA (i think one of the truest measures of a pitcher’s ability) is .202. he has almost a k per inning (another strong measure of ability). add on top of that, that he was pitching injured and i think an overall very, very impressive showing.

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