KG is doing his updates for all 30 MLB teams, going division by division, just giving a brief overview of the systems, and picking out one prospect he likes more than the consensus, and one he dislikes more than the consensus, as well as handicapping who the team’s #1 prospect will be the following season. The article is subscription content, so I won’t post all of it, but here are the snippets
Pivotal Season: After missing most of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, Kyle Drabek will likely miss the first half of 2008, putting him well behind the development curve, which is confounded by the fact that he wasn’t especially impressive before the procedure.
I Like Him Better Than Most: A slow recovery from a minor shoulder procedure dropped Joe Savery to the No. 19 overall pick last year. If he can have a full return to form this year, that will look like a steal.
Don’t Believe The Hype: After 173 strikeouts against just 23 walks, including a 49-2 ratio at Double-A, Greg Golson is looking like nothing more at this point than a more expensive version of Reggie Abercrombie.
He pegs Carrasco at 2.5:1 and Savery at 3:1 to be the top prospect at this time next year.
If you don’t have a Baseball Prospectus subscription, you really should. The wealth of information trumps any other baseball site on the interweb. I’m still hoping to do another Q/A with KG in the near future, so keep an eye out for that.
Phuture Phillies 
After speaking with Kyle on Monday, I think he is a little further along than most people say. From what he told me, he will be back within a few months.
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Serious question, how often is this guy right? Is he usually right about his calls? I was reading recently on espn about some of the can’t miss prospects – Homer Baily (Reds), Maybin (Marlins), Longoria (D-Rays). The net is, they all have major flaws and people are now questioning if they will ever make it in the pros, after people fell in love with them in the minors. People had the reverse to say about Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. I just think that it is a big guessing game.
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Brandon can you please elaborate more on what Kyle said?I’m sure myself and most other readers would be interested.
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It’s a pretty lame call by Goldstein for “Don’t Believe the Hype” to pick Golson. I can’t really think of any legitimate scouting entity that’s still ‘hyping’ him. That being said, I’ve read a few places about how Manuel worked with him some on his swing during the offseason. Granted, it’s obviously really early yet, but he was playing pretty darn well when he was still up with the big club, and now that he’s back with Reading he’s been knocking the cover off the ball.
Does anyone know if there’s any more info on what specific work and how much of it Charlie and Golson did together? I’d love to see a reporter get some in-depth answers out of either of them as to what exactly they felt might have been accomplished, how his approach at the plate might have changed, etc.
Also, I know that Davey Lopes was recently diagnosed with prostate cancer and underwent surgery, though I haven’t heard anything about how his recovery is going. He was a miracle worker with Victorino on the basepaths last year and (hopefully when he makes it back) would seem to be an obvious choice for some one on one time with Golson, who might be the fastest guy in the entire system, but hasn’t really learned yet how to translate that speed into stolen bases.
As has certainly been discussed here before, Golson’s always had pretty incredible tools. Here’s hoping this is the year he gets them in order, learns how to use them, and finds a shiny new box to keep ’em in.
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I just commented about this article in Topics/Questions.
There was another article about the Phillies and Royals but
I couldn’t read that one either.
Also, how good is Prospectus anyways? I use it for stats alot but besides that don’t know much about it. It seems cheaper than BA.
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KG appears not to have take into consideration that Golson hit over .400 against lefthanded pitching in the Arizona Fall league; hit .429 going 6 for 14 with the big team in the Grapefruit league with a webgem catch and on Monday and yesterday in minor league camp went 6 for 9 against the always great Yankee AA farmhands.
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Baseball America still hypes up Golson.
I generally value Kevin’s opinion over the Baseball America consensus, but thats not entirely fair, because there are some knowledgeable guys at BA, but also some that I completely disagree with.
I think BP is well worth the yearly price, just from Goldstein’s stuff, which is generally a few articles a week, and all he covers is prospects. Then you get full PECOTA stuff, as well as the fantasy baseball tools.
And its encouraging to hear Drabek may be ahead of schedule. The Phillies are going to be conservative with him, which is probably the right course of action.
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I’m not at all impressed with this write up. First, this is not a critical year for Drabek, anything we get this regular season will be a nice bonus. 2009 will be the critical year for Drabek. Folks in general seem pretty high on Savery, BA lists him as our #3 prospect. Just about all say he has #1/2 starter potential. Third, Golson’s stock if anything should be seen as rising. He has not been all that highly rated, despite what this writer says. He ended last season on a dismal note in Reading, but has since improved in AFL and ST. Will it last? Who knows, but he sure is more than a more expensive Taylor — and especially adjusted for inflation, Taylor was plenty expensive. Other than CD, who still quotes Rojas as comparing Golson to Frank Robinson and listing him as the 5th best Phillies hitting prospect he ever saw, I don’t see anyone overhyping Golson. Admittedly, BA lists him as the #7 prospect, but that is in a pretty weak Phillies pharm. Personally, I feel a lot more optimistic about Golson today than I did on 1 September 2007.
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To answer the questions BP asked itself:
Most underrated Phillies prospect — Andrew Carpenter among the pitchers and Myers among the hitters (he’s really been downgraded for playing through a broken wrist)
Most overrated Phillies prospect — Jason Jaramillo, hope he proves me wrong, but he hasn’t gotten it done in regular seasons
Pivotal Season — My choice is Edgar Garcia. He still has the talent, but his star fell a ton last year. I think also a key year for Carrasco, who stumbled after promotion to Reading last season. Still legitimately our best prospect, but needs to prove he can pitch well at AA. To drop belo w the top tier, it is also approaching do or die time for acquisitions Castro, Monasterios, and Sanchez.
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I don’t believe any pitcher can be “further along” after TJ surgery. It takes a full year to recover, even a little longer for some. If I recall correctly, Mathieson came back earlier than expected and has had a setback. Florida’s Anibal Sanchez has the same problem in the elbow. Toronto’s B.J. Ryan is 10 months or so into recovery, tried to come back this month earlier than usual, and is now shut down or is having problems. I wouldn’t allow Drabek to pitch competitively until instructional league. Better safe than sorry. The 2008 season is a washout for him.
Goldstein is more sabermetric, while BA is more “toolsy types.” BP is a great site for info. I think Golson will never make it in the majors with those AB/BB/K ratios no matter what he hits in the minors. I’ve yet to see a hitter with ratios that bad make it in the majors. The only hitters I’ve ever come across that rarely walked and made it big in the majors are Tony Gwynn and Roberto Clemente, both Hall of Famers who didn’t K much. The Phillies drafting gurus don’t pay much attention to these and it is a major, major flaw in their thinking that’s never been re-thought or corrected. It’s just the way they are, sort of like the old Russian politboro, who all thought the same.
On Savery, I hope by Goldstein saying he reverts to form means he pitches like he did as a freshman at Rice. His numbers were teriffic then and he’s never repeated them since. What the Phils really need is for a pitcher to explode onto the minor league scene this season and come right in late this year or next spring to solidify the rotation.
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Unlike Carrasco and Outman it looks like Carpenter knows how to pitch and has good control and command of his pitches. He must be considered the top pitching prospect in the organization after yesterday’s performance. This article tells how he commanded his pitches and worked with Coste to get out of the bases loaded jam yesterday:
http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080327/SPORTS01/803270339/1002/SPORTS
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While he pitched well, he shouldn’t be considered the top pitching prospect in the organization.
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I’d push back against the statement that hitters who rarely walk never make it big in the majors. What happens is that some of these hitters are so good that they start getting pitched around in the majors. Hence their walk totals increase. Ryan Howard’s walk totals were nothing special until he started hitting homers on anything near the strike zone.
Look at a Jeff Francoeur as a comp for Golson. He almost doubled his walks in the majors last year. His high in the minors was 30 BB. Golson is a little behind him as a prospect, but he is also drawing about 30 BB a year. His AA turn was a little bit of an exception after drawing 21 in Clearwater.
Do I think the lack of walks help Golson as a prospect? Of course not. But he will play all season this year at the age of 22 and I bet he puts up a AA OPS in the 750-800 range. Not great, but high enough that you can project him into a worst a 4th OF role in 2 years. This is not the return you want from a number 1 pick, but it is not a total failure. Reggie Taylor never exceeded a 700 OPS until he was 22. Golson is clearly ahead of Reggie.
Golson probably does not have the ceiling of a star major leaguer any more. He can be an everyday player, however. Look at Torii Hunter’s career:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/H/Torii-Hunter.shtml
He was selected in roughly the same place in the draft. He scuffled for a few years in the minors. Then he put it together in the majors in his age 24-25 seasons. I am not saying Golson will end up as good as Hunter. But on the other hand, guys with tools deservedly get more chances and years of development. For all you Tyler Mach fans, Golson is a year younger than Mach still.
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When did Howard start hitting homers on anything near the strike zone? His BB may not have been stellar, but they always exceeded 1 per 10 AB. So it is unfair to compare him to Golson. He always got his share of walks, starting in NYP league the year he was drafted, when he got 30 BB in 169 AB also very good. His only ‘low’ year was 50 in 490 AB at CLW. I think you misstate his record. Golson has never reached a walk every 10 AB and has a couple of years of worse than 1 in 20 AB.
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i honestly think that people put too much weight on physical tools and too little on mental make-up. carpenter is a winner. he outperforms all of those other pitchers with better stuff. the reason is location and mental make-up. he was a winner in college too. most of the hot prospects that never make it in the pros have great stuff but weak minds and poor command. look at rick ankiel. he is the poster child.
same goes for hitting. see howard, utley and soon to be golson.
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The statement was not a comparison of Howard and Golson. It was simply that Howard started drawing more walks when people started pitching around him. 33 BB in 312 AB his rookie year, 108 BB in 581 AB the next. Howard did start hitting home runs on anything near the strike zone in July and August of his rookie year. His walks went up when he started to get the Bonds treatment.
Players can increase their walk rate. I never said Golson had a good walk rate. I am looking at his overall production which has been acceptable when looked at with respect to age. His 2 Clearwater OPS’s were 796 and 772 at age 20 and 21. His AA was a little disappointment, but repeating what he did at Clearwater this year is very possible.
Players can become decent major leaguers without stellar walk rates. Of course he can become a better player with a better walk rate. Even if he continues to draw only 30 BB a year, however, he could still become a major leaguer that could put up an 800 OPS. That is not a star, but it is a better outcome than most are predicting for him. The point of the whole post was about prospect status in spite of the BB rate.
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I saw Golson hit a bit in spring training and he looks different. I’ve never been a big Golson guy because I’ve seen him in previous spring trainings and he never looked that good to me. His swing just looks better and the ball is jumping like it never did before. I’ll be very curious to see how he knows for Reading this year because he’s raking it in Florida so far.
While there, I had a long conversation with Drabek’s dad Doug and he said Kyle was doing fine. They’re hoping that he’s pitching in August. I don’t think anyone is going to rush him because he’s so young and there’s just no reason to do so. He seems like a nice kid to me and he really loves baseball.
By the way, I had a great chat with Lt. Karl Bolt and his dad and let the dad know about this web site. Bolt is one heck of a hitter and a great athlete (and the firmest hand shake I’ve ever shook). The dad says he can play third also. However, the kid must be getting tired at this point. He’s been going from baseball back to the Tampa air force base where he’s been working an eight hour shift fueling jets, grabbing 2-3 hours sleep, and then back to baseball. What a grind. He should know within a few weeks what the military will let him do. Great kid, nice father, I’m rooting for the kid. Mattair is a great kid also and boy can he throw. Galvis makes Ozzie type plays in the field but Mattair has a Rolen arm. Whether either can hit will be the question.
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PPFan, what makes someone a “winner”…? How would I go about identifying winners? Was Ted Williams a winner, even though he had a total of 25 postseason AB’s? How is Carpenter more of a winner than a guy like Carlos Carrasco?
This is where I fail to understand the rational of some baseball fans. Determining who is a “winner” and who isn’t seems completely arbitrary, and I find no value in labeling someone a winner, a gritty player, or any of the other cliches in the baseball lexicon. I know what Andrew Carpenter’s physical tools are, and I know what hes done to date. That helps me come up with what I think he can do. Some guys outperform their tools and expectations. An even bigger number of guys underperform their tools and expectations. I do know that its far too early to really know what kind of major leaguer Carpenter will become.
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phuturephillies, PPFan’s rationale isn’t just that of some fans, as much as it’s also the rationale of the old-school scouting community. I agree with you that his labeling of Carpenter as a ‘winner’ is overly vague and subjective which, makes it difficult to have any meaningful conversation based on his evaluation. The whole modern sabrmetric stat-based movement has been in an attempt to create a common ‘scientific’ language, so that clubs aren’t overly dependent upon a few experienced scouts who can’t really explain why they like a player beyond saying they’re gritty, or winners. That’s not to say there aren’t some scouts who’ll find legitimate winners (players who would otherwise fall through the cracks of most statistical analyses) over and over again, but just that relying on that incommunicable methodology is a much riskier way to approach player development.
As far as my original question concerning the toolsy, scrappy winner Greg Golson, is there any chance that you or someone else might be able to get some answers from either him or Charlie about their work together?
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it is very easy to determine if someone is a winner or not. you have to get to know the kid. it is the same thing in every sport. i am a miami dolphins fan. so i will use zach thomas as an example. that is a winner. he has that special thing inside of him that just makes him over perform his physical attributes. carpenter showed you a lot last year. he got stronger as the year went on and dominated in the playoffs. he rises to the occasion. that is an attribute of a winner.
look. i don’t spend nearly half the time you spend analyzing these kids. i have never even seen most of them play. all that i am saying is you can’t tell someone’s future based on saber-metric stats or “stuff”. Mental make-up is 90% of the game. the other half is physical.
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Baseball fans on the ‘tubes could spend the next ten years debating quantifiable vs. non-quantifiable factors, just as we’ve spent the last ten years. It always amazes me at this point when anyone chooses to have the argument… clearly, good teams utilize both, as even most “old-school” types now acknowledge.
Meanwhile, Goldstein’s obviously a smart guy, but I think Allentown’s criticism of this article is spot-on. Drabek is still (I think) just 20; if he spends all 2008 rehabbing and comes back full-strength next spring, fine. And Golson’s stock will never be lower than it was after he put up that 2/49 BB/K at Reading; he was better in the AzFL, better this spring, and has been saying all the right things about what he needs to improve upon. We might spend the next 15 years moaning that the Phils took him ahead of Phil Hughes, but I bet he’ll be at least a decent fourth OF or reserve, and “Torii Hunter with a little more power” could be a reasonable upside projection.
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Haha I’m not so sure using a Miami Dolphin to personify winning was the best idea… because they only did that once last year.
Come on, everyone knows the best players have a good mental and physical makeup. Its a mute point. You can have all the heart in the world but it wont make up for physical deficiencies, and likewise for having all of the talent in the world but no heart. Its a careful balance. If all you needed was heart to play professional sports, Rudy would have been a Hall of Fame end. But he wasn’t, so give it a rest.
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Last year and in this ST I made special efforts to see Outman, Carrasco and Savery pitch in person. While they may have potential they did not show ML poise, command and control. The year before Happ showed flashes of dominance when I saw him pitch but too many times was s up in the zone and behind in the count relying on wild swings by AA suspects to get out of the inning. I have never watched Carpenter pitch but what he did yesterday Happ, Savery, Carrasco and Outman would not have been capable yet of doing at this point in their careers. That’s why Carpenter moves to the top of the prospect class.
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fair point Duh…my beloved fins are horrible. but zach thomas is a hall of famer. and i agree that it is a little of both. that is my point. i never said someone with all heart and no talent will make it. my only point is that we never discuss the mental aspect of the game….the maturation of a player. how he responds in tight spots. does he show improvement. what is his work ethic.
that is why i believe golson will pan out. by all accounts, his work ethic is off the charts, but he was immature when we drafted him. i think that he pressed a lot, which will lead to high K rates.
james – rickey makes my point. you ask how do we know if someone is a winner. it is things like what he said. those are the ways to judge mental make up.
this is my concern about savery. he has never won. he is like Drew Henson in football. Everyone loved that guy, but he never really dominated on the football field. winners find a way to win on the field.
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The thing is, I fully acknowledge that attitude and makeup are important. Of course they are important, but in the majority of cases, they don’t trump talent. Carpenter’s one eye catching outing doesn’t rocket him ahead of Carrasco, Savery and Outman. All 3 of those guys still have a higher ceiling and better raw stuff. Is it conceivable that Carpenter ends up the most productive major leaguer of them all? Sure. Is it likely? I guess that depends on your perspective.
Baseball is a game of sample sizes. 4 innings in a ST game doesn’t outweigh hundreds of innings over the course of a professional season. Bud Smith threw a no hitter once. Remember him? I’m hoping Carpenter becomes the best pitcher in baseball, just like Golson becomes the best RF in baseball at some point. But my expectations and my hopes are two different things, and I try to keep that in mind when sharing my opinions here. But I certainly welcome the other side, its what makes this place go.
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agreed. disagreement is what makes a blog interesting. i know that you know that attitude and makeup are important. it is just that you never discuss it in analyzing a player. as such, to readers, it feels that you don’t really put much weight on it. go back and read your profiles. if it is mentioned, it is very minor. one suggestion is to see if you can get an interview with some of the managers and ask questions about these people’s makeup. put it as a key check item for the profiles and work to get people who know him. even other players on the team will vouche for a players work ethic and character. just a thought
also, to clarify, i wasn’t drawing a conclusion because of one 4 inning ST game. that’s an unfair response. it ignores his 19 win season and two dominating wins in the playoff and from his great record in college. bud smith never had that kind of success so that is also an unfair comparison.
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it’s so hard to put a rating on a prospects “makeup and attitude”
i think the reason why this is so often left out of prospect discussions and anazlyzation is simple…. it is nearly impossible for people like us, casual internet phillies fans who go to games and attend spring trainings, to quantify and put a rating on a 18-22 year old kids character…..
The simple fact that these kids are in the minor leagues in someone farm system means they had enough motivation and love for the game to take a chance on getting pain beans to play the game…. i guarantee you every minor league kid wants to win, wants to get better, wants to get promoted, etc…. Almost all these guys are winners, and have won throughtout their career……
the difference between a guy like Carpenter and Carrasco is simple, drew carpenter is just more mature….. not every prospect in the minors starts their career from the same age, not everyone has the chance to play D1 college ball against older mature players, Carpenter had that chance, carrasco didnt…..
as you get older you get smarter, obviously carpenter has a good mix of knowledge, experience, maturity, and talent…
Some people dont ever combine all these things, but we as casual still have to rate them on their tools and skillsets….
we know college players are more polished and have a better chance of reaching their ceilings, we also know that international signings need time to develop and dont get the seasoning as a highshool/college US prospects does… or the amount and caliber of competition play…..
people like carpenter are ahead of the curve in that respect and maybe a little behind on physical tools….. we’ve seen success from both of these types of prospects…. I think a mix of these types of players is the way to go….. I welcome Carrasco and Carpenter at the top of our prospect list, but it’s nearly impossible to say one is better than the other one at this point esp using character as the quantifier, both are unique pitchers with a different skillset and are at two different points in the maturation process…. Neither are all the way yet, some people get their differently, we just hope they all get there…..
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please excuse typos in above post
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There are some qualities that are not quantifiable and these qualities play a significant role in an athlete. The book “Coaching The Mental Game” by Harvey Dorfman brings up several areas of an athlete’s makeup that go beyond the two-dimensional picture portrayed by his/her stats on a piece of paper. That’s not to say stats are unimportant; like our debate on the economics of spending money in the Rule V draft versus the amateur draft, there’s a happy medium that needs to be struck.
Much more goes into the makeup of a winning team than having players who put up nice statistics. Some players bring something extra to the table beyond the piece of paper that can be the added juice that takes a team to the next level. In the right situations, I would be more willing to have a player of this nature on my team than one who puts up slightly better numbers. Think of the psychological impact of Aaron Rowand running all out into the centerfield wall versus Bobby Abreu pulling up short every time he approaches the shadow of the fence.
You can’t quantify something like that in a number.
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Character matters, but how do you quantify it? How many prospects can you meet personally and judge them on intangibles? Do we keep track of the hours they spend in the video room? Do we see how they behave in the clubhouse everyday? How they spend their evenings?
For most of us the answer is no. The best most of us can do is read quotes or watch videos (which are mostly out of context) and draw conclusions from that. Or we take someone’s word for it. In the end, it’s all filtered and packaged. You might form an opinion based on reputation, but reputation doesn’t always correlate to reality.
For example, even after Chase Utley molded himself into a fine fielder, it took an entire year before announcers and reporters and fans all came around. Instead they all repeated what they had often heard, which is that Chase would never be a great fielder. Well, now he’s a Gold Glove candidate and you don’t hear that kind of talk anymore. But they continued to parrot the conventional wisdom until the evidence against it was overwhelming.
Reputations about intangibles are never fully quantifiable and therefore are much harder to refute than a reputation about fielding.
A bad reputation about character might hang around a player long after he’s matured, for example, Dimiti Young. Likewise, a good reputation might cause you to overlook production, as was the case with David Bell.
That’s not to say we can’t use our own horse-sense and evaluate body language, etc, but we should be careful when relying on intangibles over production. In the end, production is what counts and production is measured with stats, and most importantly, by wins.
Bottom line: all it takes to “be a winner” is to win.
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It is interesting to note in the next to last day of minor league camp which prospect starters are pitching well and which are not. Outman continues to struggle giving up three runs and 7 hits in 3.2 innings of work while Savery goes five and gives up a run and Diekman pitches a six inning shutout. Outman has been a major disappointment so far yet some rate him above Carpenter just because he can throw harder but he must still be struggling with his his control and command .
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