Hat tip to commenter “John” for this. According to Scott Lauber, Blackley’s locker has been cleared out, meaning he has been offered back to the Giants. If the Giants don’t take him back, I believe he can be re-assigned to minor league camp. So, it looks like he’s not making the team right now in either scenario. Lauber also mentions that Knotts and Darensbourg were also re-assigned, again not shocking news, leaving the Phillies with 11 pitchers.
The Phillies have only 11 healthy pitchers left in camp (starters Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton; relievers Tom Gordon, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey and J.D. Durbin). So, for now, J.D. Durbin appears to have a spot on the team, even though he has allowed eight homers in 15-1/3 innings and has a 12.33 ERA this spring. And unless the Phillies acquire a pitcher via trade or through waivers, something GM Pat Gillick has said is a possibility, it appears they will carry only 11 pitchers until Lidge is activated, probably April 5.
That would mean they’ll keep 14 position players. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, Eric Bruntlett, Greg Dobbs, Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Geoff Jenkins, Jayson Werth, So Taguchi, Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste seem to have jobs locked up. So, the final spot would go to either Chris Snelling or Wes Helms. Snelling is out of minor-league options and would have to clear waivers to go to triple-A. If the Phillies can’t trade Helms, and it’s looking unlikely, he either has to stay on the roster or be released. The only other position player in camp is INF Ray Olmedo, and I’m betting he’ll wind up at triple-A Lehigh Valley.
If we’re able to trade Helms for an arm, that probably means curtains for either JD Durbin or Condrey, but based on The Real Deal’s spring performance, he’d likely be the one to go. After his trainwreck of a spring, he might pass through waivers. When Lidge is activated, that means Snelling will have to clear waivers, which is doubtful. Maybe he’ll be “injured”, and we can stash him on the DL.
I hate to keep harping on this, but we spent $100,000 this winter on 2 major league Rule 5 selections, and it now appears both are gone. In Holdzkom’s case, we didn’t get 25K back, because he was eligible for free agency. If the Giants take Blackley back, we will receive 25K in return, but will still be out $75,000 on Rule 5 picks. What are the odds that $75,000 could have been used to sign Brandon Workman last summer, or could be taken away from the draft allotment this summer? Lots of bad “small” moves eventually add up.
Phuture Phillies 
Gillick has participated in 3 Rule 5 drafts as Phillies GM. Took Chris Booker in 2005, Took Jim Ed Warden, Alfredo Simon and Ryan Budde in 2006 and took Travis Blackley and Lincoln Holdzkom in 2007. I’m not sure any of them have been close to making the team. In addition to the Rule 5 fee of 50K, I think the Phillies have paid a premium to other teams to make the selection for them (like Booker and Simon).
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Your absolutely right when you say that all the small things add up. Like signing Arthur Rhodes, Ryan Franklin, Wes Helms and any other little small role player that Gillick has picked up that has done little or nothing for the team. It is little things like these that make me not that happy with Gillick’s performance so far. I don’t think he has been terrible but I wouldn’t call him a great GM by any means during his tenure. Most people can handle making the big moves, (i.e. any fantasy baseball owner can pick Arod 1st overall, it doesn’t take talent) I think that Gillick should be graded on all of his little subtle moves that wasted money and cost the Phillies draft picks . As well as give Abreu away for absolutely nothing. (that still burns me up to this day)
As far as Rule 5, was Julio Santana a rule 5 guy? I remember him being around for about a month a couple years ago. He’s right in that Chris Booker mold, threw hard but has never seen the plate.
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Failing to join today’s “I know better” gang, I submit the name of a Rule 5 draftee who didn’t turn out too bad–Victorino.
Y’know, the guy who roams CF for these guys.
Lousy pick…ay?
Reminds me of the “nattering nabobs of negativity” –to coin a phrase.
Rule 5 draftees are–after all–a shot in the dark. Though I didn’t check this out, I’d BET that the vast majority of the Rule 5 draftees don’t stick and are returned to their original club…some stay if/when a deal can be arranged.
Why it is necessary to malign the Phils FO w/o mentioning the other 29 clubs who do the same……??
Perhaps the dissers are hoping to receive a call from the Phils to become the GM. Was that the phone ringing…???…
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If you’re still kicking Gillick about the Abreu trade, this is a pretty good article reviewing it: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/trade-review-bobby-abreu/
I mean, saying the Phillies got nothing back for Abreu is pretty much a mute point; it’s hard to get something back when there’s only one potential suitor for Abreu’s contract. The Phillies just didn’t want to pay Abreu to hang around on a team 7 games under .500 and well out of contention when he was traded. I think Gillick’s strategy is pretty valid given the Phillies ownership’s reluctance to spend money and take risk.
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Tough to give Gillick (the guy currently in charge (purportedly at least)) much credit for Victorino since it was Ed Wade’s regime that made the pick. Even then the Phillies got very, very lucky with Victorino since they offered him back to the Dodgers and the Dodgers passed rather than pay the measly 25K to get him back.
I think Castro was a good pickup but he was drafted by the Rangers and the Phillies only jumped in at mid-season 2006 to acquire him.
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I think if someone could show that signing Rule 5 guys or signing guys like Wes Helms prevents the Phillies from increasing their international signing or draft signing budgets it would be pretty cool. But I don’t think it works that way.
The Phillies strategy and budget for international and draft signings doesn’t seem to be effected by Rule 5 moves or anything else really. I think they establish budgets and adhere to their game plan regardless of what is going on in other aspects of their other budgets.
MLB or Bud Selig or someone wants the teams to limit the amount of dough they spend on draft picks — and the Phils pretrty much agree. It certainly seems that they would benefit greatly from busting slot and picking up some really great draft picks instead of taking chances with injured guys or head cases or toolsy guys. But that’s not what they do. I don’t think the Rule 5 moves they make have much to do with it though.
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I’d like if you could provide some info that the Rule 5 budget isn’t connected to other talent acquisition budgets. You seem to discredit my theory and ask me for evidence, so surely you can provide some of your own.
And Gillick gets no credit for Victorino, that was an Ed Wade move.
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None of us can provide any information regarding how the Phillie front office works since none of us work there. Further, the Phillies front office isn’t well known for providing much information of any value regarding why they do the things they do. I didn’t ask you or anyone else for evidence. I stated that it would be really cool if we could find out about stuff like this somehow.
If some reporter would ask Gillick or Amaro or someone if the Phils would increase their international or draft budgets by 75 or 100 grand maybe we’d get a straight answer. Then again, maybe not.
Barring that I’m guessing about this as you are.
I have seen organizations that work this way plenty of times. They have budgets for different things and don’t mix them. It doesn’t really make sense to us folks who don’t operate that way in our own lives but that’s what they do. The Federal Government is that way. So were the State Universities in Missouri. The Phils may model themselves that way too. Who knows?
I have an opinion about this as do you. I’m not really sure there’s much discrediting going on as neither of us really know how the Phils operate internally.
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i am pretty sure johan santana was a rule 5 guy.
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Not talking about PG as GM…just talking about the PHILS FO.
Thought this was criticism of the Phils’ FO, not just PG.
Victorino pick “lucky”?
1st ya gotta pick’em, then keep ’em. It’s all included. Trying to separate Victorino Rule 5 pick from any other Rule 5 pick…though it was the same.
Piling on PG..? A worthy project…by those who are so much more knowledgeable.
Problem is: the only way to avoid criticism for choices that don’t turn out the way you hoped (i,e, lightnig in a bottle) is not to make any moves at all. PGs moves are within the context of the Phils’ FO. Blame the owners, not PG…just because he is the most visable.
If you rather have Wade back, say so!
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The issue with the Phillies taking rule V picks now is that with a good team, it is almost impossible to hide a player on the roster for a season.
To me, it makes more sense to save the Rule V money and apply it elsewhere (think a $100,000 signing bonus would maybe get someone like Brandon Workman to sign?)
I’m a big Gillick fan overall but he does have a maddening habit of just throwing stuff against the wall hoping to get lucky…
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I don’t know, guys. If I can budget an amount to spend in the Rule V draft and possibly come up with someone who may be close to major league ready and I have a separate budget to spend on draft signings, I think that’s a pretty good strategy, especially with some of the gems that have come out of the Rule V (Victorino as already mentioned; and yes, Santana was a Rule V too).
I think PG’s strategy (and who knows, it may not be his… could be Arbuckle or Amaro’s contribution) to stock up with low value, “scrap heap” type players is workable in the context that he’s not the GM for the Red Sox, Yankees, or Mets. You know your ownership group is going to be very tight on the budget, so how do you field the best team given that? You don’t take chances on long term, high cost free agent contracts, and you find value where ever you can. The Rule V draft, the waiver wire, etc.
If you look player by player at acquisitions and transactions, you might lose sight of the fact that he put the first playoff team on the field in Philadelphia in 14 seasons. Yes, it was with a nucleus that was developed on someone else’s watch, and yes, the Mets had to tank for it to happen, and yadda yadda yadda… but he’s got some other credentials that also say he has a clue (Seattle, Toronto) at what he’s doing.
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I wasn’t indicting Gillick’s entire tenure. I’ve simply pointed out that he’s struck out on all of the Rule 5 guys he’s taken. We traded for Fabio Castro, so that wasn’t a true Rule 5 selection. The money spent on the Rule 5 draft could have gone towards an over slot bonus baby to help re-stock our system. No one knows if the two budgets are tied together. The way the Phillies have been run over the last 20 years, it wouldn’t shock me if money used for the Rule 5 draft came out of the draft budget.
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I disagree with not holding Gillick accountable at all, and instead blaming it on the front office. Maybe he can’t do everything he wants because of the financial restrictions by the FO, but that doesn’t absolve him of some of his screw ups. If we are just going to blame the FO and not the GM then what is the point of even having a GM? By that theory, it doesn’t matter what monkey we put behind the desk. Gillick is not the only GM in the league to have monetary restrictions yet we see smaller market teams succeed through smart timely moves.
If you look at what I wrote earlier, i did not say Gillick was terrible, nor did I said I want Wade back. I said that when grading a GM you should take a closer look at the smaller moves that they make because those are the ones that tend to make a difference in building depth and utlimately winners. Look at how the Padres GM builds a bullpen, not big names but smart decisions on pitchers that other teams balked at.
The FO is guilty of their mistakes, but Gillick is guilty of his within that system. He doesn’t get a free pass just because he doesn’t have Boston or New York money.
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Ironically, the team that won last year was largely assembled by Ed Wade. Kyle Lohse was the missing piece of the puzzle added by Gillick. But to get Lohse, he traded a piece that Wade drafted. To get Iguchi, he traded Dubee, who he drafted. So I guess thats a feather in the pocket of his Hawaiian shirt.
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Just looking over last year’s roster, this is the list of players who were acquired post-Wade. I guess you could say this is PG’s contribution to the 2007 division championship.
Greg Dobbs – Waivers
Wes Helms – Free Agent
Jayson Werth – Free Agent
Tadahito Iguchi – Trade
Rod Barajas – Free Agent
Russell Branyan – Waiver Trade
Jamie Moyer – Trade
Kyle Lohse – Trade
Antonio Alfonseca – Free Agent
J.C. Romero – Waivers
Fabio Castro – Trade
Francisco Rosario – Trade
So, that’s 12 player acquisitions. In that list, I have to say the only glaring missteps are, of course, Barajas and Helms. Other than that, there are some very solid contributions on that list.
I think as a GM in baseball or a manager in anything, if you’re looking for a person to be right 100% of the time, then I think you might be asking too much. He dumped a lot of money at Helms and Barajas, but at least they were short deals (2 years for Helms, 1 for Barajas). He tried and failed in those two cases. But, isn’t that going to happen with every GM?
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Okay, I left Freddy Garcia off that list. I guess his contributions were so forgettable, I just erased them from memory. 🙂
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This is a pretty hotly contested subject, obviously… I am not sure if I am exactly on a particular side or even what my true feelings are. I would just like to point out that Gillick’s “junk pile” strategy, where he has acquired a lot of cheap and problematic arms and bats, has been somewhat successful. I agree, if the 50k rule V guys and the 2 million bargain basement free agent signings are sapping are draft budget, then we need to change our approach. However, look at who Gillick has brought in using this strategy. I would argue that Castro, Dobbs, Werth, Romero and Rosario are all byproducts of the “junk pile” approach. Sure, this approach is sort of like Barajas at the plate, there will be a lot more misses than hits. But, Gillick’s hits are playing an important role on the ’08 squad.
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Yea, and you forgot Adam Eaton.
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But, if you look through the draft results of any team, regardless of on-slot or over-slot, there is still a pretty hefty “failure rate” amongst draft picks as well… guys who fail to make it to the show for one reason or another. Putting “more eggs” into the draft basket might ultimately leave you just as devoid of workable, major league ready talent. If you’re saying, “Well, just stop wasting money on Rule V picks that don’t pan out”, I could just as easily turn around as say, “Okay, stop wasting money on draft picks that don’t pan out.” All of it is speculative and all of it entails a considerable bit of risk.
Since we all seem to be unanimous Ed Wade haters, it might be wise to consider what made (and makes) Ed Wade a bad GM and how PG is different from that. IMHO, Wade’s principal problem was never being able to implement a “Plan B” when his “Plan A” failed or being able to modify “Plan A” midstream. In the draft, EW has several feathers in his cap for sure (Hamels, Rollins, Howard, Utley, Myers, Burrell… basically the entire nucleus of the present team). But, as James pointed out a long time ago, how much of a draft’s success or failure can be claimed by a GM? After all, aside from decisions on busting slot and such, the GM is not the one doing player evaluations and developing young talent. Also, some (not all) of those picks were very high first round picks and the Phillies ability to even select them in the first place was caused by their futility in the late 90s. If you’re drafting that high, you’re definitely going to have a better chance at a good major league caliber player. But, in free agency, Rule V, and trades I think there’s a large seperation. EW had a terrible penchant for tying the Phillies to white elephants: players who’s cost far exceeded their contribution. In this category, you have David Bell, Mike Lieberthal, Pat Burrell, and to a far lesser extent, Bobby Abreu. Also, EW repeatedly failed to be able to add the right pieces to push a contending team over the edge, whether that be through trade or waivers. When we really needed another starting pitcher, we found a long line of questionable bullpen arms. On the other hand, PG set up a team in the offseason and when that plan was failing, he modified it with midseason moves and it paid off. The Iguchi, Lohse, and Romero acquisitions most clearly illustrate this. Also, his offseason free agent acquisitions have been “white elephant free” so far. You may have to endure a year of Barajas or Helms, but you don’t get three or four.
My thought is, to judge a GM or an organization, I think you have to consider the question “Did they take what they had and make it better?”. In regards to PG, I think the answer to that is “Yes”.
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“Yea, and you forgot Adam Eaton.”
Touché, although the jury may still be out on him if he makes a solid contribution this season, as it appears he’s going to get the 5th starter spot.
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John, I agree with most of what you said. I don’t quite follow your logic with the rule V versus the draft thing. Sure, there is a high failure rate among both, however, without any quantitative proof backing me up here, I would say over slot guys have a higher success rate than rule V guys. Also, If you asked me to choose between having Blackley and Holdzkom or a prospect like Workman, well, I would take my chances with having a high ceiling prospect over two AAAA pitchers. Finally, I would not consider Burrell or Abreu to be “white elephants”.
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Its been pretty consistent through Gillick’s time as our GM, that he’s made fabulous under the radar, low risk acquisitions, ie Dobbs, Werth, Alfonseca, Romero… basically scraping the bargain bin and getting big contributions. His in-season trades for Moyer, Lohse and Iguchi were also pretty good.
But on the other hand, his huge, publicized pick-ups have also been consistently terrible… the kinds they write big, fluffy articles on phillies.com about. Garcia, Eaton, Helms, Barajas… I’d love to go back and reread all of the bullshit they spewed about how Garcia and Eaton would give us the best rotation in the national league.
Its those four that make me kind of uneasy about Lidge, Jenkins and Feliz.
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Garcia was hurt, and if you believed Eaton, Helms, or Barajas was any good, well, then you need to study up some… I think Feliz is going to be similar to the Eaton/Helms/Barajas signings…he just isn’t very good. Lidge and Jenkins though, in my opinion, hold promise. We shall see.
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