While many of us have been handicapping the chances of one of the young guys making the team, based on info passed on by Jayson Stark, it looks like maybe none of them will make the team. Stark says
Teams that have spoken with the Phillies say they’re frantically searching for two relievers to add to their middle-innings mix. But they have so little to trade — aside from Wes Helms, who has attracted just about zero interest — they’re likely to just see what’s out there on the waiver wire or the out-of-options bargain bin. Nevertheless, they’ll almost certainly do something. One baseball man reports that when he asked a member of the Phillies’ organization this week whom the 11th and 12th pitchers figured to be, he was told: “They’re not here yet.”
Emphasis added by me. So. The bullpen locks are Lidge, Gordon, Romero, Madson and probably Chad Durbin, considering his contract. That means the two spots they are referencing are currently being battled for by JD Durbin, Blackley, Rosario, and Condrey. There’s no question that dumping Helms to make room for a new reliever would be beneficial, but only if the reliever was actually good. The ramifications for the minor league side of this is, none of the 4 guys above can be optioned down. Blackley would have to be returned to the Giants unless a deal could be brokered, a deal that might involve Helms. Rosario, Durbin and Condrey would all have to pass through waivers. Rosario would probably be claimed by a team like Baltimore with zero playoff aspirations. Durbin has been waived/claimed about 343 times in the last year. Condrey cleared waivers both times last season and was allowed to be optioned up and down because of it.
I posted this elsewhere, but its my simple defense for Clay Condrey.
Last season he ranked #4 among Phillies relievers in WXRL
Romero — 2.220
Myers — 1.647
Madson — 1.643
Condrey — 1.640I made a case for him last year, and I’ll make the same case for him now. He got absolutely bombed in 5 outings, and all of them came in lopsided games.
5/19 v TOR — 0.2 IP — 6 ER — 3 H — 3 BB — 0 K
5/27 v ATL — 0.0 IP — 3 ER — 4 H — 1 BB — 0 K
6/1 v SFG — 2.0 IP — 5 ER — 4 H — 2 BB — 1 K
8/22 v LAD — 2.2 IP — 5 ER — 9 H — 0 BB — 0 K
9/17 v STL — 0.0 IP — 4 ER — 4 H — 0 BB — 0 KIn those games, he was either brought in when we were way behind (TOR, SFG, LAD) or way ahead (ATL, STL) and in the LA and SFG games, he was basically just used as the whipping boy to avoid having to use another reliever.
5G: 5.1 IP — 23 ER — 24 H — 6 BB — 1 K
34G: 44.2 IP — 5 ER — 37 H — 10 BB — 26 KHis ERA in the 5 outings was 40.59 with a WHIP of 5.90. I think that would skew anyone’s numbers.
His ERA in the 34 other games was 1.02, with a WHIP of 1.06.
If the Phillies are going to find 2 relievers from outside the organization in the waiver bin, the odds of both of them being better than Condrey aren’t very good. I have a bad feeling about all of this.
Phuture Phillies 
Well done with regards to Condrey. I didn’t have any concrete evidence to back it up, but it seemed like he was fairly effective last year, with a few horrific outings thrown in to skew his numbers.
– Jeff
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He stinks. You can’t just cherry pick like that. That he’s still in the running speaks volumes about the team’s lack of pitching depth.
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Hey, I’m not saying that he’s Rollie Fingers. We’re talking about a sixth or seventh guy out of the bullpen here. I’ll settle for “mostly effective with a few (fortunately well-timed) crappy outings.” He’s very much a AAAA type pitcher, but with most teams going with seven man bullpens, there is going to be a fair amount of Condrey/Blackley/Durbin (either one) types on each team
– Jeff
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I don;t see how removing 5 outings from a 39 outing sample is really cherry picking. In 30 of his 39 appearances, he didn’t allow a run. I’d say thats a significant stat, isn’t it? Its not like I’m advocating him as the 8th inning setup guy or future closer. I’m saying that just looking at his overall stat line from last season is deceiving. Giving up 23 ER in 5 innings worth of work will torpedo anyone’s line.
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anyone who gives up 23 er in 5 innings deserves to have his line torpedoed. It’s a circular argument. whatever the case, we all agree he’s not the answer but for the phillies to replace junk with more junk doesn’t make sense.
It does beg the question of how can the Phillies be so bad at developing minor league relievers? All the good bullpens out there seem to have a couple of hard-throwing young guys who never made BA’s top 100 list, but have the goods to get people out an inning at a time. The Phillies have been hyping Joe Bisenius as that type, but where is he (rhetorically posed)? And where are the half dozen other guys who should be pushing him? That’s a real hole in the phillies’ development chain.
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The problem is, the good relievers are normally starters in the minors who just kind of dont have enough to start in the majors. A guy like Andrew Carpenter could turn into that. The Phillies need to draft as many guys with big arms as they can. If the guys make it as starters, great, if not, you convert them to relievers. Finese righties really aren’t the types of guys we should be targeting in the draft.
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can we sign john patterson as our #5?????
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Releasing Patterson seems an odd move by the Nationals. They can’t have any realistic aspirations of making the playoffs this year, so wouldn’t it be worth it to take a chance on Patterson, hope he can sort himself out a little bit, and then deal him near the trade deadline for a mid-level prospect?
As far as the Phillies go… the bullpen situation certainly isn’t pretty, but unless they think they can pick up a Brian Fuentes (who I believe I saw them rumored to be after), picking up a middling reliever either by trade or off someone else’s scrap heap seems counterproductive. Rosario, Blackley and Durbin have enough upside to justify their inclusion on the roster (though Durbin has obviously really struggled), and Condrey’s pitched well enough this spring and in mop up duty last year to justify a roster spot as well. It’s sad, but I can’t imagine who would be out there that would be a move worth making.
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I don’t know about the rest of you but I watched the major league team ALOT last year. Mesa come into games last year. I watched Alfonseca run, to him what must have seemed a mile from the bullpen, in to games late. We even saw J. Ennis, Y. Hernandez, and K. Davis make appearances. To really not think Condrey is not more deserving than those guys is crazy.
I think Condrey should be a lock and either Rosario or Blackley. JD Durbin offers little hope and upside and a number of our minor leaguers could easily give us his 5+ era and 15-25 inns pitched out of the pen.
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I wasn’t advocating drafting finesse righties. Joe Bisenius is not a finesse righty. I think the phillies seem to lack – and have for as long as I’ve paid attention – effective home-grown bullpen arms.
There could be some observational error going on, but I look at the good pens over the last half dozen years – such as the Padres, the Braves, even the Mets – and I wonder how they can stock their bullpen cheaply and effectively while the Phillies always seem to have a little shop of horrors beyond the center field wall. I think it represents a bit of a deficit on the part of the Phillies development program.
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Condrey has a chance to be a real help in the pen. No, he’s not Joba Chamberlain, but losing him now for nothing would be a shame. I’m not so sure he will pass through waivers this time around. Close call. Maybe his overall numbers will scare people off, but I agree with James that Condrey was effective when it mattered. There were times he was striking guys out rather handily. He was definitely a help.
At the same time, losing Rosario could hurt more later on. Surely he would be claimed.
Too bad Condrey isn’t left handed. Tough situation. Kind of a mess. So many scenarios with the Phillies losing guys who would have helped while holding on to junk.
JD Durbin will probably pass through waivers. If not, let someone else try to figure him out.
I’m not sold on Blackley as the only lefty behind Romero. But grabbing any old lefty leaves you with Shane Youman. Even if Helms has little value, someone can use him and maybe they like Rosario and a long-shot minor leaguer. Maybe they like Dobbs and we keep Helms. The idea is to get us some value out of our assets instead of letting them just get claimed or released. Gonna be an interesting and potentially frustrating few weeks.
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You know what the Phil’s bullpen needs, more fingers.
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What teams have a lot of relievers that can shut down anyone in the league? The Red Sox have perennially had a horrible bullpen. Pappelbon was needed as a starter but couldn’t take the pounding. Okajima was the luckiest find around. Suddenly they have a bullpen. Yankees want to tear their hair out every time Farnsworth comes in. The guy can throw high 90s but teams light him up. Even Rivera has fallen flat on his face for periods of time. You can pick up guys and slot them for 6th or 7th inning and they’ll do well for a while but they don’t always get the work they need. Sometimes it’s too much work and sometimes not enough. They’re like guys whose job it is the put Nuclear Warheads on missiles. It’s a very delicate job. If you don’t do it all the time, you get rusty. Or if you have to do a lot of them, you get tired. In any event, if you screw up…KABOOM!
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Well, I buy into the argument that Condrey was pretty good when it counted. But I would like to know how many inherited runners he allowed to score, which would pretty much be his job coming in with men on.
Other than that, he is decent. Pretty much what you would expect when you try out a half dozen minor league vets over a few years. One of them is likely to prove he is a serviceable pitcher in majors, based on my theory that many minor leaguers (a minority, but significant number) simply do not get the extended chance they need to establish themselves–re: Chris Coste. So Condrey got the chance and looks like a guy who can pitch OK most of the time. Maybe he is worse this year, maybe the same, maybe better with a year under his belt. But I would rather see him giving up a hit an inning, than Rosario walking the bases loaded and a game getting completely away from us.
It’s the perrenial conundrum: Yes you want big power arms to develop. But yes, you also want guys who meet the major league table stakes of throwing the ball where they want it to go. Every year there is a dilemma of big physical talent vs. modest but controlled talent. So many of the big ones, Floyd Youmans, etc., just drop off the face of the earth.
I think the big arms have a much better chance to do well when they are in a groove in AAA for a month or two vs. inconsistent performances in ST.
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I am Anonymous.
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I’ve seen Condrey pitch a few times. It looks to me that his best pitch is a sinker out of the strike zone. When guys are swinging at it they ground out a lot or miss it. If guys wait on him to throw a strike he doesn’t really have much to offer.
It’s possible he’s very deceptive and guys can’t help but swing at his pitches outside the strike zone. But it looks like he is really walking a fine line between effectivness and disaster. He doesn’t have a long track record of success though so I think last year he was pretty lucky.
I’m biased but I like to se them put a guy who throws hard as the last guy in the bullpen. Sometimes guys like that turn out to be pretty good.
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Guys who have no control over where the ball is going normally don’t turn out to be pretty good. Velocity is nice. Movement is better. Condrey’s sinker and changeup both have lots of horizontal break and movement.
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The Phils should have the following home-grown relievers right now:
Mike Zagurski–torn hammy
Joe Bisenius–arm injury–velocity still not back
Zach Segovia–shouldeer injury
JA Happ–shoulder injury
Scott Mathieson–Tj surgery
Yoel Hernandez–lots of shoulder and elbow woes, now released
and Matt Smith, who was a minor leaguer when acquired by trade.
Too may of the guys who would seem to have been the ones to be ready right now have been hurt or traded. I’ve not even listed the ones who were injured in the lower minors…
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Rosario has 1 spot nearly locked up. If anyone who should now be considered on thin ice it should be Gordon, he looks horrible so far. Maybe he will turn things around but he should be dropped down on the depth chart some. Hopefully Lidge is ready right away. Madson and Romero are the setup guys and in my opinion Rosario should be there to replace Gordon or at least given a look. C.Durbin and Condrey and even Blackley are OK at this point, but if they can improve at some point, go for it.
Those who should not be considered:
JD Durbin, Youman, and the rest who don’t seem to be even considered any more.
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PC: How different the picture would be right now if those guys were healthy. Likely to be some performance disappointments even if they were healthy, but also a good number on your list could be contributing and we’d be arguing whom to keep and whom to option (nice argument to have).
Just wondering if that number of guys injured, all of whom were pretty close to majors, is unusual or typical and if how we handle pitchers in minors is a factor. Seems like Phils are pretty cautious with young arms and maybe it has more to do with college experience or just the specific mechanics of the individual bodies.
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Rosario’s on the 15 day with a shoulder strain. I think Condrey might make the opening day roster spot. Chad Durbin pitched well is the PPD game yesterday. I think they’d like to get Blackley a couple of more looks. We haven’t mentioned Darensbourg or Knotts. Vic pitched well the last time out. He’s a veteran who hasn’t pitched in the bigs for a couple of years. Didn’t Knotts come out of the Independent league last year? Does he have a shot? Would you keep either of these guys instead of Rosario or Blackley? I think JD is gone.
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Darensbourg (lefty) has done good, it either him or Blackley in the pen. Rosario was doing very good but now looks as if he will be on the DL/rehabilitation for the next month or 2.
Benson will likely be given another month to get set, that is only if he doesn’t opt out of his contract.
JD Durbin will likely be sent thru waivers and should end up in AAA (doubt any would claim him), and Youman has options as does Castro. Chad will likely be on the team also.
Myers, Hamels, Moyer, Kendrick, Eaton (most likely)
Lidge
Gordon (uhg)
Madson
Romero
C Durbin
Condrey
Blackley/Darensbourg
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Great to see Eaton pitching like he’s on a mission and Rosario protected on the DL. Condrey and Chad Durbin should stick. Twelve pitchers without question.
So far it’s Darensbourg over Blackley for the final spot, though rule 5 options may overrule the result. Blackley needs to show command. Darensbourg is a ML vet who pitched well for Detroit in 2005 and had a great season at Toledo AAA last year. If Darensbourg widens the gap over the next two weeks, the FO will need to do some fancy footwork to keep them both.
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Question-
Blackley was plucked in the rule 5 from SFG right? What use do they have for a middle reliever? I can only assume they would try and trade him to another team. He isn’t a closer and the Giants aren’t contenders. I think a minor league bat or 2 can pry him away.
Someone like a Slayden might very well get a few ABs on such a lack-luster squad. Any other thoughts? I mean Blackley isn’t a star prospect so it wouldn’t demand too high a price unless they would want us to beat potential other offers. I really see very little usefullness out of Blackley for the Giants.
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sweet. Condrey has had scoreless outings 2 out 3 games this year.
I don’t know if this argument is validated or not, but I for one would still prefer someone else in our pen.
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