Happy Friday. I thought today we could again take a look at the impending pitching crisis facing the Phillies, and who is possibly going to step into the open spots.
Myers
Hamels
Moyer
Kendrick
( )
Lidge
Gordon
Romero
Madson
(________)
(________)
(________)
The Phillies will likely go with 13 offensive players (8 starters, 1 backup C, 2 backup INF, 2 backup OF) and 12 pitchers. The 8 pitchers above are basically locks. For the last rotation spot, we have
Eaton (injured, hopefully out forever)
Benson (injured, probably out till May)
Blackley (Rule 5)
For 3 bullpen spots, we have these candidates
Zagurski (injured, won’t be ready for opening day)
Rosario (out of options)
Castro (probably not ready)
Condrey (out of options)
Chad Durbin (sucky, out of options)
JD Durbin (sucky, out of options)
Youman (1 or 2 options remaining)
Ennis (no options remaining)
Both Durbin’s also remain options for the 5th SP spot. With the day off on 4/1 (don’t get me started on this), the Phillies can go with a 4 man rotation for the first turn, and they won’t need a 5th starter until April 6th. If I had to align things, I’d go with Blackley in the 5th spot, and then Rosario, Condrey and Youman in the last 3 bullpen spots. Its really not a pretty situation, but I think Blackley merits keeping. If he isn’t deemed rotation worthy, or if Eaton is healthy, then I’d try and work out a deal with the Giants (I got it right this time) to trade for him and assign him to Allentown to give him some more work.
So, what do YOU think?
Phuture Phillies 
What do I think? I’m scared. I have no confidence after #1 & #2. One of these days Moyer’s arm will fall off. Kendrick is getting anihilated in spring training…I’m afraid that this isn’t going to get better once they head north. Looking at the reality of this list, I’m that much more confinced that it won’t be long until we’re praying that Happ, Outman, Carrasco, Mathieson or Carpenter can save us. I hate being negative, but my confidence in this rotation is at an all time low. Heck, they may even need to beg Madson to rejoin the starters with things the way they are.
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I think that “mess” is the right word. I expect a lot of 8-7 wins. I’m going to wager that Blackley gets the nod at #5 with Rosario and the Durbin twins going to the bullpen. They’ll all probably struggle, and then possibly some help coming in May or June from either Happ, Mathieson (if healthy) or whatever Reading starter looks most ready.
– Jeff
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I think Rosario should get the 5th spot. He’s pitched great in ST and has good stuff. Keep Condrey and the Durbins in the pen spots and hope they don’t kill us. That’s about as much as we can hope for at this point.
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I think it will be Blackley, Rosario, Chad Durbin, and Condrey
Ennis will be DFA, most likely ending up back in Allentown.
Castro and Youman has options and therefore will end up in AAA.
I think JD Durbin is out of here.
I think Eaton starts the year on the DL.
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Excluding the mess that is Adam Eaton, this is how I see the last 4 spots wrapping up.
I think Chad Durbin will make the squad solely because the Phils signed him for 900,000. He isn’t going to surprise anyone and they probably view him as their most known commodity in the trash heap.
Clay Condrey showed them that he could be effective at times last year and for that reason I think he will begin the season on the team. But when Eaton/Benson retake the 5th spot he will be the one to go.
Blackley will likely make the team unless they find another lefty to bring in. I don’t think they can decide what they want out of Castro and will stash him in Allentown for a while. So Blackley survives because of which arm he throws with.
The 4th spot will be for Francisco Rosario. Like I’ve said before, he has the best stuff of the remaining pitchers and therefore has the best chance of breaking out and having some real impact on the team. I would like him to be the 5th starter but I doubt they will give him a real shot to win the spot.
Darkhorse: JD Durbin. I still feel he will be the odd man out but I remember all the love that Mitch Williams was giving him last year. Mitch felt that JD had an 8th inning arm but we’ve yet to see that so far.
After looking at how I think it will break down, the Phils seem to have an awful lot of mop up guys in the pen. If Rosario is in the pen and isn’t able to improve on his control I fear we will end up a bit thin at the top of the pen and will lead to Charlie over-using them throughout the season.
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I also think Rosario and Condrey should be on the roster, but my concern is opening the season with only Romero and Youman as the lefties in the pen. If somehow Romero isn’t lights out again, we’d be in trouble. Even if Romero picks up where he left off last season, he can’t pitch every day. And though the sample size is small, Youman’s splits aren’t as compelling as Blackley’s against lefties. Besides, Youman has options.
So I’d say let Rosario get a few starts to ride his current momentum and leave Blackley in the pen for now. They can always switch roles if necessary. But who knows, maybe Rosario will hold on to the job.
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I’d like to use Rosario as a starter, but I don’t see them keeping him in the 5th spot, and I wonder how he’d transition to the pen. He certainly has the best stuff of all of the guys on this list, but he also does have command/control worries.
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Supposedly Rosario has pitched better as a starter, at least lately. Especially given his control issues i’d expect him to do better as a starter than a reliever. The real question for those of us in favor of him starting though is, what happens if he is successful? Would he get moved to the pen when Benson/Eaton come back? Or would they cut ties with Benson. Unless he comes out and starts throwing no-hitters I doubt the Phils would keep in the 5th spot if Benson is healthy no matter how successful he pitches.
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There isn’t likely to be just one hole in the rotation to plug all season. You figure the Phillies will use 10 starters this season, minimum. Benson may or may not be effective so until he is you have to assume the worst while hoping for the best.
Having Rosario establish himself early would be a huge help. Besides, he’s got the hot hand right now. Who cares if it’s only because he’s ahead of schedule due to the Caribbean series? Ride out his momentum as long as you can. Besides, with Chad Durbin, Madson and Gordon in the pen, there’s no room for both Condrey and Rosario, also right-handers, and they don’t have options. We need a spot for Rosario somewhere and starting makes sense.
Command is a concern with Rosario for sure, but starting will allow him to get into the flow of the game more so than coming in for relief with runners on.
If the Phillies didn’t foresee Rosario as a starter, it’s only because they didn’t foresee him being the only one to act like he wants the job.
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Did I say momentum? Wow, Rosario just served up a granny as part of a six spot in the second inning. Nothing like good timing.
Nonetheless, the same issues with options apply and we can’t simply overstock the pen with right-handers to avoid losing guys on waiver claims. Someone would claim Rosario for sure and he’s a guy who can help. Same with Condrey. Something’s gotta give.
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Wow, its going to be a VERY long year.
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My guess is that the FO will make a move before the season starts for a lefty in the pen. Ideally, the deal will include Helms, a right-handed reliever w/o options, and maybe a minor leaguer for a solid lefty in the pen. Are the Dodgers a fit? Is anyone a fit?
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Chad Durbin is a virtual lock, considering his salaray and experience.
Rosario, too, considering he’s out of options and has been throwing well.
Blackley, because he’s left-handed, also has an inside track.
I expect Eaton to open on the DL, leaving one spot open, which I expect Condrey to take.
JD “Real Deal” Durbin will once again find the waiver-wire.
And I’m thinking Chad Durbin will get the nod as the 5th starter, if only based on experience, plus that would leave two left arms in the ‘pen. I would like to see Rosario get the nod–and if the decision is based solely on performance lately, it should be him.
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Now warming up in the bullpen, Bellman. His over 40 year old arm is rusty but it can’t be any worse than what the Phillies have. I thought Rosario was a lock and then he gets lit up today. Youman got smacked around. Ennis pitches 3 strong innings. Anybody want Ennis as a #5? Worse yet, the Rollins, Utley, Burrell and almost everyone else can’t hit the ball. I love seeing 9-1 in the 7th all the time. Maybe there’s a kid watching from the stands that we can press into action. I’ll continue warming up in the meantime.
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The Phillies should give Happ and even Segovia another look for the 5th starter spot.
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Rosenthal at Fox says that the Phils are looking to add a bullpen arm and a possible solution could come from Arizona, where Brandon Medders and Dustin Nippert are out of options.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7911208/Notebook:-Reds-have-prospects-to-make-noise
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Id pass on both guys, to be honest. I think Condrey deserves a spot in long relief. He had 3 really poor outings last year in blowouts that inflated his ERA. Otherwise, his peripherals were decent.
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I think Blackley or Rosario will start as the number 5 guy unless Eaton turns it around in a hurry (this will happen at the precise moment that I accept the Democratic nomination for President in 2008). As soon as he is major league ready, Benson will become the number 5 man. If Happ steps up, he’s got a shot at the rotation too, but probably in May or June.
Condrey will make the team and so will Chad Durbin (whether I think it’s a good idea or not). Castro goes back to 3A for more seasoning. The last man standing will be Rosario.
So what do I think overall? What I think is that, as bad as things look right now (and may continue to look in April and May), things will settle down, sort themselves out, and some options will develop. But it will not happen overnight. In the meantime, expect the Phils to once again go .500 or lower in April and maybe even May.
At the end of September, we will look back at this chain of responses and laugh as the cast of characters (other than the top few guys in the rotation and bullpen) may have changed significantly.
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Carrasco 3 shutout innings today.
Darkhorse for the 5th starter ? Considering how bad everyone else has been.
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No, Carrasco will not start the year with the big league club. The chances are zero and none. It’s not going to happen. J.A. Happ would be called-up before Carrasco gets a chance.
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With all due respect, James, when I guy like Condrey is a
leading bullpen candidate, it clearly indicates the Phillies
have pitching woes. What a pathetic mess our brilliant
front office has created.
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I had hoped Blackley could regain his premier prospect status–great all-star level stats before injury in minors–but he seems inconsistent. I have read a post somewhere from a ST game attendee that he only throws 84. I don’t belive Phils would be looking at him as closely if that were the case. Can anyone describe his stuff? Right now he looks like another Condrey, but who can tell at this point. I think we are all in the dark and will see a lot different picture even in a month–not necessaruly better.
Rosario also does not inspire confidence. You have to ask why a guy who throws 97 can’t find a way to get hitters out consistently at age 27.
Chad Durbin could get better. He has experience and may be pacing himself and working on stuff. Maybe he is a 4.75 ERA type when he gets it going, something like Steve Traschel.
JD Durbin I just don’t see. If he were going to be good with his very good stuff, I think he would have shown more by now. I have the sense he doesn’t have a clue and just can’t lock his mind into any sort of disciplined approach to improving his command. I see him being outrighted and maybe we lose him or see him in AAA–two months there starting is probably his best shot at finding a groove.
I keep thinking of trying Madson in the rotation again. Will a year and a cutter as a third pitch make a difference? Don’t know, but I haven’t given up on him as a #4 type yet.
Not buying Loshe for $4.5M might be a mistake. Looks like PG drew a line in the sand with Boras and took himself out of the picture in trying to toe the line against crazy agent demands. Could haunt him. He could have approached it differently. Wonder if the old cutlure of Dallas Green, Arbuckle, and others infuenced the position they took.
I’d have to say Chad is the front runner, with Happ, Benson, Mathieson, Outman and Carrasco coming into the picture in the next few months. If Carpernter is dominant through June at Reading, he could be there too. Maybe Segovia is healthy too. We could also see a parade of the AAAA guys again looking for the next Joe Roa or Paul Byrd.
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I am anonymous above. Can’t get used to filling in the name here. Sorry.
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All that said, guess what. We have the 1 and 2 spots filled pretty nicely in Hamels and Myers. Same for the 4 and 5 spots in Kendrick, Moyer and C. Durbin.
We really lack a #3 guy. If PG can pull off a Millwood or Garcia type deal in the next few months, that alter the picture dramatically–but, (goes without saying) this time the deal has to net us a healthy performing #3
Unlikely, given all the comments about our budget being maxed. It would have to be someone’s salsary dump combined with a youth movement. But the FO has come through with “one-offs” before. Maybe PG can sell one more to them. And they would have to do it without letting Carrrsco go, IMO. Maybe some combo of Werth, Jaramillo, Outman, etc.
Just some idle speculation/wishful thinking to balance the mind against the phutility of the situation.
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I’d throw Carpenter into that 5th spot. Even though he hasn’t had as much experience as Carrasco…he’s a little older and has had success.
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Assuming that Eaton doesn’t make it to Opening Day (which is still my belief, his scheduled start this afternoon notwithstanding), I see Blackley, Rosario, Condrey and Chad Durbin filling the last four spots. Condrey’s a long/mopup reliever; it almost doesn’t matter how you define the usage of the other three guys, because until Benson’s ready they’re all equally valid (or not) options to start when that #5 slot comes up in the rotation.
Since we know this is a temporary situation anyway–Benson will take the job as soon as he’s ready–you might as well play hot hand/matchups with the #5 slot for the six or seven times you’ll see it (skipping over as off-days and rainouts allow) until Benson is ready. If Rosario seems to have his command or you’re facing a team with slow bats, hope to get 4-5 good innings from him in the start. if the opponent has a lot of lefties, maybe it’s Blackley. Try Chad Durbin if neither of the other two guys makes particular sense.
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I think we did badly need Lohse. Agree we really need a #3, but that seems unlikely to happen. Lohse ok as a #4. It is too soon for Carpenter. You don’t bring a guy up from A ball to the majors to start a season. He, Carrasco, or Outman could be mid-season possibilities, but none of these guys has pitched well above A ball and that is just too big a jump.
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Just to muddy the waters a little more…or clear things up, Eaton actually pitched his best game of the spring today.
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We probably saw the end of JD Durbin today as well. Is it just me or as he given up 5 runs in every outing he had so far this spring training?
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Agree that Reading guys will only come up if they are solidly locked in and pitching 7-8 innings at AA, probably not until late May at th4 earliest. Agree Eaton muddies the waters a little today, but he’ll have to do it twice more to be considered over his back problems and a healthy pitcher who can genuinely hold the opponent’s bats down. Agree Durbin signed his death warrant today. Why screw around with him having a tantalizing game every 4th time out? It just keeps the waters muddy/ Hope he takes an assignment and clears waivers an can get on a roll to help out later.
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Call me a pessimist, but I’m not so sure that his three scoreless innings today could be called muddying the waters. He still gave up 5 hits.
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5 hits in 3 scoreless innings is not awful…its a start for Eaton…I have an odd feeling that Eaton is going to turn things around and try to show that he is worth the money…I know he’s been quoted before as saying that he doesn’t want free money and wants to earn it…I just hope that’s what happens
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No, its not awful… but 5 hits in three innings could just as easily mean giving up 3 or 4 runs.
But anyway, god would I love to see him turn it around and be effective this year. The best case scenario for the back-end of our rotation would be for Eaton to be decent, and for Benson to come back healthy and effective enough to justify sending Kendrick to AAA to develop his changeup.
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Only one of the hits off of Eaton today was hit hard, he looked sharp. I’d like to see Castro make the pen and Chad Durbin is probably a lock, I’ve given up all hope for J.D. I wouldn’t call that a better scenario as Kendrick is part of the phils plans long term, while Benson is only a one year stopgap for Carrasco an company.
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Well, I was thinking that JD would get a spot, but I agree with most of you that he pretty much has his bags packed after todays performance. I honestly think that the Phils will be doing some serious waiver wire watching in the next week or two as some experienced pitchers might be finding themselves on that list (which of course doesnt say much for the state of the Phils staff!) Youman has no shot to make the squad…..I think Rosario will get the chance!
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Looking forward to the On Deck series with Toronto. I hope they call up a young pitcher or two who had good minor league camps and did not appear on the major league ST roster to pitch against the Blue Jays. In last year’s On Deck series Kendrick pitched two, 1-2-3 innings against the Red Sox. Andrew Carpenter would be a good candidate also getting a look at Carrasco pitching at CBP would be interesting.
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Since it appears that anyone who can throw a baseball could get the 5th spot in the rotation what is everyone’s thoughts on Horacio Ramirez? The former Brave who was just released by the Mariners. I thought it was a steal for the Braves when they got Soriano for him and his terrible performance at a huge stadium like Safeco confirms it. But you’d think he has to be as good if not better than Durbin, Durbin, and Blackley. (sounds like a law firm to me)
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I nominate these two topic musical awards:
Best performer (in honor of Eaton): Muddy Waters
Best song (also in honor of Eaton): Money for Nothing, Chicks for Free (Mark Knopfler)
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The most important number to remember in the discussion for the fifth starter is $8 million, i.e. Adam Eaton’s salary for this year. If he’s not on the DL — and I guess he looked alright yesterday — then surely he starts the year in the rotation.
I tried to handicap the “race” for the fifth starter position over at my blog. However you slice it, though, it’s not pretty.
James, what’s your take on how this will all shake out?
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If Eaton is “healthy”, ie, not getting his head beat in near the end of ST, he’ll be the #5. I think they want to keep Blackley, and might use him in relief, simply because he can’t be optioned. Chad Durbin is probably insurance for the #5 spot and would be next in line, because he signed a guaranteed contract (900K), he’s likely to get looks over the non-roster/guys making the minimum.
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Phils win today. Myers, Madson and Blakley get the job done. Blakley walked a man and that can kill you as a reliever (or a starter). It didn’t today. Hitting from the starters is not good. I heard Jeter talking the other day that ST is too long for hitters. ST is for pitchers and hitters only need the last 3 weeks to get ready. Haven’t seen it yet from the Phils but maybe they’ll turn it on when they need to.
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Blackley… Blackley… don’t know why I can’t spell his name.
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Phillyfriar —
Even more important is next seasons $8+mill. Even if he sucks this year he might be ok next season. I agree, he makes the team or the DL. No way the Phillies give him $16 mill to fix his physical woes and pitch for somebody else next season.
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It looks as if the Phils are changing Blackley into a reliever now.
Unfortunately, Eaton will likely get those 2 – 4 starts prior to Benson getting activated.
Rosario has the stuff and has shown the promise to be in the back end of the pen. This may be needed as Gordon has not impressed any at all. Madson and Rosario are OK.
Condrey and Blackley are my guesses for the pen with Rosario. Chad Durbin however, may just sneek in there to unseat 1 of them. (Rosario should be safe now)
Wildcard: alot of trade rumors.
Zagurski, Youman, Ennis, and Castro will not make the team barring injuries.
Midseason help from: Castro, Mathieson, Benson, Bisenius, Happ, and possibly from one of our young top guns Carrasco, Outman, Carpenter, or Savery. But that would be a push for any of them.
But right now: just a mess. I am concerned about Kendrick, #5 and the last 2 relief spots along with Gordon. That is 2/5ths of starting pitching and 3/7ths of relief pitching. Not Good!
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Understand Phils might want to keep Blackley, but what does he throw? What is the physical attraction? Does he throw 90+? What kind of breaking pitches? Killer changeup? I saw him only for an inning or two on MLB-TV. Looked like his command was decent, but not Moyer-esque.
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This might sound like a dumbass mailbag question, but has Mathieson pitched at all this spring? Does anyone know the projected timetable for his elbow recovery?
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Who is this year’s Zagurski, a lefty reliever who moves to the show after starting the season in high A ball. In ST Moises Melendez is pitching well and Walter Tejeda pitched the 8th inning and struck out the side of high A Blue Jays farmhands on Saturday.
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