Please, Pat and Charlie, if you are reading this, DO NOT DO THIS. This article talks about Carrasco’s hot start this spring, and his desire to remain with the big club. Putting him in the rotation would be a mistake, unless the team plans to leave him there, for better or worse, and we know they are not in a position to do that. I wouldn’t mind Carrasco competing for a middle reliever spot, not mopup duty, where he can get regular work and be broken into the majors in that fashion, but I don’t think Manuel would trust him, much like he didn’t trust Castro when we got him and had to keep him on the roster. Carrasco needs to either be starting every 5th day in Reading or Allentown, or pitching 2-3 times a week out of the major league pen. Please don’t yo yo him around when he’s not ready for the rotation in the bigs.
25 thoughts on “Carrasco wants 5th SP spot”
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Phuture Phillies 
I totally agree with this, but I don’t see it happening. Barring an injury to one of the first four starters, for Carrasco to win the spot, the following would have to happen:
–Eaton stinks so badly that the team can’t countenance using him despite the massive salary;
–Benson suffers a setback in his recovery;
–Blackley doesn’t impress; and
–both Durbins show fairly conclusively that they couldn’t fill in with adequate performances.
Remember that Blackley and J.D. Durbin both have to make the team or the Phillies lose them, Blackley back to SF and Durbin to waivers. Happ would be in the mix as well, and he’d also have to fall short.
I guess it’s possible that the dominoes fall in such a way that Carrasco gets one or two starts before Benson is ready–as Floyd did in ’05 and Segovia last year. But given how those two debacles played out, hopefully the team will learn from past mistakes.
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Of course he wants it, I’d be worried if he didn’t want the 5th spot. He’s not getting it this year though, the coaches know better.
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Amen!
He looks good but let him pitch regularly in the minors. The big club will need him soon enough but not right out of ST.
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I think Carrasco will get the fifth spot. Though there is plenty of competition for the seemingly wide-open position, I think he is too young and inexperienced for the job. The last time the Phillies plugged in a great, #1 pitching prospect in the rotation was Cole Hamels, and that was well after he deserved it. The team waited until he could no longer compete at AAA before they promoted him. I think they’ll do the same with Carrasco. He should spend this year at AA Reading/AAA Lehigh Valley, maybe get a cup of coffee in September. Then start next year out at AAA Lehigh Valley, and stay there until he becomes uber-awesome. Then, and only then, will he win the spot.
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If i remember correctly Carrasco is one of those guys who when promoted aggressively tends to struggle, and it looked like the Phils had eventually figured that out and were planning to start him at Reading. Though because of his success at ST I wouldn’t be surprised if they accelerated him and starting him in Allentown, not learning from their previous mistakes. The young fan in me thinks it would be exciting to see Carrasco as the 5th starter but I’d much rather see him have at least one dominant season at AA/AAA before we bring him up. I’d much rather be in a position where his success over a season makes it a no brainer to bring him up rather than his success over a 4 week time and hoping that it wasn’t a mistake.
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I like Carrasco alot but I think he needs one more year in the minors before he gets a spot in the rotation. A full year at AA/AAA and maybe a September call up is what should happen. Eaton will probably take the fifth starter spot. Blackley is doing well and if he makes the team could see starts if Eaton does poorly. C. Durbin will be in the bullpen and could also start if needed. J.D. Durbin probably won’t make the team but is an option. And there is also Happ and Segovia who had pitched only scoreless innings so far in spring training.
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Pretty much agree with what has been said. I do not even want to see Carrasco in AAA until he has put up good numbers in AA. He is only going to be 21 this year, younger than Savery, and has plenty of time. Of course he wants to start with the big league team this year, but hopefully he will use it as motivation to get better (i.e. better command).
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I agree with your premise of keeping Carrasco on the farm for his own good. But as shallow as the pitching staff is, I can’t see any way that he can stay off the roster all season as long as he’s having success at AA/AAA.
Meanwhile, the hard truth is that Lohse on an average day is better option than Eaton or any of the others competing for the 5th starter slot.
If Loshe has reduced his demands from 3 years to 1 year at between 4-10 Million, the Phillies should look to sign him to 4MM + incentives which could bring him up to 6 or 7 Mil. Did Lohse burn his bridges with Philly in the early stages of negotiating? If so, the Phillies should get over it and sign him anyway. If Lohse goes to the Mets for less and has a good year, the front office will have a lot of explaining to do. Then again, if the Mets sign him for more and he’s terrible, it could be just what the doctor ordered for the Phillies.
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Agree, too early for Carrasco. Managtement should tell him he has zero chance of pitching his way onto the team out of ST. We do not need another injured pitcher as a result of a futile attempt to make the team by overdoing in ST.
Carrasco did not pitch well in AA last year. He was very young for AA and would be even younger for the majors.
Lohse likely is a good investment at $4-5 mil plus bonuses for 1 year. Unless we trade Helms, I don’t think the team can afford him, though.
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At first I agreed with you in regards to Lohse as a 1 year option. But I think we got spoiled last year by his performance. I looked at his minor league and major league stats and he has never been that successful.
His best year seemed to be 2003: 14-11, 201 IP, 4.53 ERA
His best year in the minors was equal to that if not worse.
I think that his time spent with the Phils last year was either a fluke or the result of increased run support. If it is the run support then I think anyone not named Eaton should be just as successful while costing less. I personally would rather see Happ benefit from the run support than give Lohse any money.
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I do not understand the thinking of even bringing Carrasco up for a short September stint. If the Phillies are fighting for a playoff spot, which I feel will be the case, then bringing up a kid who has never pitched in the bigs before and plugging him directly into a pennant race might not be such a hot idea. If, on the other hand, the Phils are so far back of the Mets/Braves/wild card (improbable) or so far in front of the Mets/Braves (highly improbable) that it would not matter who we throw into the rotation, aren’t their other guys that we would rather test at the big league level; guys that are much closer to losing their minor league eligibility and who are fundamentally above Carrasco? I know this whole subject is a bit pointless and the comments above weren’t meant to be definitive, however, I just don’t understand the point.
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Obviously, you’re right – there’s no way they should promote him now. My view is that this is one of those rare instances where their being cheap will mesh with what they should do. It is very clear that the club does whatever it can to hold onto talent at bargain prices for as long as it can. One of the main ways to accomplish this goal is not to promote young, hot-shot prospects at the beginning of the year. By doing this, they push off free agency another year. I suspect they will do the same with Carrasco, even if none of the usual suspects emerges as a strong 5th starter candidate during ST – they can carry a weak fifth starter for a very long time, especially early in the season when there are so many off days.
Now, if Carrasco rips up the Eastern League and then goes crazy at Allentown, we may see him at any time from Memorial Day to the end of August . . . but I don’t expect this either. Unless they really expect him to make a material difference this year (possible, but not likely), expect to see him recalled next May or June.
I think we will see Outman, and, perhaps, even Happ (as I’ve said before, I think he’s ready to turn the corner) and/or Savery (I think he’ll move up very quickly as he is physically and mentally very mature) before we see Carrasco.
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I don’t think Carrasco will be promoted to the Majors this year. With the wealth of marginal pitching talent in the system, I think it is much more likely that we would see Eaton, Benson, Blackly, Castro, Bisenius, Happ, Mathieson, or Outman before Carrasco. Also, Sean, your point about keeping Hamels in AAA for too long was lost on me. Hamels was rushed through the minors, spent 3 starts at AAA and made his debut at age 22. I hope they do not do this with Carrasco.
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Who may be a dark horse to move up this year and actually stay around is Zegovia, he pitched very well today and looked a lot better than both Savery and Outman. Didn’t get any K’s but was very efficient with his pitches, probably less than ten in each of his two shutout innings.
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“the following would have to happen:
–Eaton stinks so badly that the team can’t countenance using him despite the massive salary;
–Benson suffers a setback in his recovery;
–Blackley doesn’t impress; and
–both Durbins show fairly conclusively that they couldn’t fill in with adequate performances. ”
ummm…. all of those scenarios are fairly likely, aren’t they?
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I want it … I want it … I want it … I want it. Yaaaaaa cannnnn’t have it.
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I don’t really have anything new to add, so let me just echo those saying that there’s absolutely no way this should happen. I do think Gillick & Co. are smarter than this; there’s a fine line between being aggressive and being cavalier, but given Gillick’s years of service as a GM, I think he knows better than to rush a kid who isn’t ready.
And anyway, it’s all Carrasco’s fault for pitching well so far.
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Nah. Not even if he is lights out through ST.
The FO KNOWS he needs at least one full season of worthy pitching before he could compete for a BIG spot.
One swallow does not a summer make; he will return to Reading or MIGHT (not likely) start at Allentown. He promises TOO MJUCH to mess around with his needed development time.
AFTER he has put together consisterncy within games and consistency from game to game, he will be ready. If all goes exceedingly well, he MIGHT make it up in Sept. BUT IMO the FO is rightfully taking it slowly/cautiously with him..
…..It would not serve him nor his career well to try to URGE him into the big club when he clearly needs more seasonig; and if he not ready, why should they mess with his head with terrible odds against his BIG club success. No, THAT would be a big setback…not worth it; there’s no emergency and won’t be with 2-3 pitcher-prospects ahead of him.
Don’t rush the guy. He needs a solid season in the minors…let him/make him EARN it! THEN we’ll have him in full effective regalia! Patience!
P.S. I will recommend no pitcher ahead of his time….with apologies to Orson Welles.
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No matter how well Carrasco pitches he will not be considered at this point for the rotation. That could change if there are multiple injuries to the pitching staff, but very unlikely.
I like the idea of bringing back Lohse, but I do not see any room for him right now. Also I feel that someone will step up and take charge of that 5th spot. Blackley right now has shown good promise, while Eaton has struggled. If they both end up on the team why have Eaton start just because of his $8mil or whatever contract when Blackley has outpitched him. The payroll is the same if Blackley starts and Eaton is relief -vs- Eaton start and Blackley relieves.
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By the way, for what it’s worth, I do not agree that Hamels was rushed through the minors. He spent several frustrating years alternating between dominating and being injured. Finally, in 2006, he was healthy and he just made the competition look silly at the minor league level. I truly believe they wanted to keep him in the minors for a few more months, but he just so out-classed AAA hitting that it was pointless to keep him there. So, yes, he went through the system quickly, but they didn’t rush him. He forced the issue.
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Exactly H-Man –
Send Carrasco to the minors (Reading), and then have him force the Phils to promote him. That’s pretty much what Hamels did in 2005. Weren’t his numbers at Scranton something like 42 strikeouts in 21 innings, with 3 ER allowed?
– Jeff
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I saw Carrasco picth on Sunday against the Yankees and he did look lights out. It is exciting to see one of our young prospects play so well, albiet a few short appearances in ST, but nonetheless. I hope they keep him in the minors until, as said before he “forces the issue” My concern now is that the front office is getting his hopes up and should proactively manage his expections through this process. If Savery and Carrasco keep this up we could have a very dangerous rotation come next year or the following with Hamels, Myers, Carrasco and Savery…not too shabby!!
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This reminds me of when Hamels struck out the heart of the Yankees order a few years ago and there was talk of letting him start despite his inexperience.
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Kendrick got clobbered today. I’m one who believes he will require a trip to the minors this year. He was pushed a little too far, too fast. I’m hoping I’m wrong but I’ve had this feeling throughout the winter. Let’s hope he’s only working out the kinks.
Carrasco could have a similar fate, if he’s pushed ahead before he’s ready. He might look good for a time but he really needs more seasoning.
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I found it odd that the article says the Phils want to start the year at Allentown. Since he struggled in Reading last year (and his peripherals were far from dominant in Clearwater), why wouldn’t he go back to Double-A to start the season?
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