I’m back. I’m still not healthy, but I’ll take one for the team anyway. I’m going to basically compare the 5 NL East teams today, focusing on their farm systems, their recent draft strategies, and what it all means going forward. I’m going to look at two main areas; current prospect depth/composition and recent drafts. My goal is to be as objective as possible here, it won’t do anyone any favors if I’m harsh on other systems and complimentary to the Phillies, but if you’ve been reading this blog long enough, you know that’s generally not how I operate anyway. So, let’s get right to it.

Current prospects/depth/impact

Braves: The Braves are a really interesting team. Whenever it seems like they are down in terms of prospects, five new guys pop up and give their system real legitimacy. They had apparently gutted their system in the Mark Teixiera trade, only to find out that they added a number of legit draft and follows, and had another strong June draft. In terms of all 30 teams in MLB, Atlanta’s system probably ranks in the Top 10, in fact, they might be around #7 or #8. Their core strength is pitching, as they have a ton of projectable arms, most in the low minors. This includes the likes of Jeff Locke, Cole Rohrbough, Cory Rasmus, Steve Evarts, Tommy Hanson, Dustin Evans, and Chad Rodgers. All of these guys have mid rotation potential, but a few of them have some issues, like most prospects do. In terms of prospect bats, Atlanta also has a decent collection in the lower minors. Jason Heyward is a beast of a man, and could potentially destroy the SAL as an 18 year old. Cody Johnson has massive raw power, but also big time contact issues. Gorkys Hernandez and Tyler Flowers are also above average prospects. What separates Atlanta from the rest of the teams in the NL East is their upper level talent. Brandon Jones, one of their best offensive talents, is probably just about MLB ready, and could open camp with the big league team as part of a left field timeshare. Jair Jurrjens, picked up in the Renteria deal, could break camp as the 5th starter. Jordan Schafer, one of the Top 30 or so prospects in the game, will likely be ready sometime in June or July, and Brent Lillibridge looks ready to take over at shortstop should Yunel Escobar, another young player, not handle the gig in his first full season.

Marlins: By now everyone knows how the Marlins like to tear their team apart every few seasons and go with a $3M payroll. In the past, this has worked well as it has allowed them to acquire talents like Hanley Ramirez. They’ve supplemented that in the past with good drafts, acquiring guys like Jeremy Hermida and Josh Johnson, while also doing well in Latin America. However, when I look at the Marlins system now, I’m pretty unenthusiastic, from a prospect fan position. The Marlins strength is pitching depth, but they lack true star potential guys. Chris Volstad is their most talked about pitching prospect, and has been getting the hype from BA for a while. He was part of the famed 2005 draft, where the Marlins took 5 straight prep pitchers in the first 44 picks. Of those 5, he’s the closest to a sure thing, but I don’t see him as more than a #3 starter. The rest of those guys all have big question marks. Ryan Tucker has a 99mph fastball, but lacks a reliable breaking ball. Sean West is coming off of major arm surgery, Jacob Marceaux has never put it together and looked lost at times over the last 2 seasons, and Aaron Thompson is a soft tossing lefty who profiles near the back of the rotation. Offensively, the Marlins aren’t much better off. Matt Dominguez fits the Ryan Zimmerman mold at 3B, but his bat is a much bigger question mark. Chris Coghlan is one of the better 2B prospects in the minors, but that’s faint praise. The rest of the Marlins position player prospects are fringy, for me at least. Gaby Sanchez, John Raynor, Mike Stanton and Scout Cousins all have their issues and are far from big league locks, though Sanchez is the closest. In the upper levels, the Marlins don’t have a whole lot. Gaby Hernandez is a good bet to see time in the rotation this year, despite being pretty young. Sanchez might displace the mediocre Mike Jacobs at 1B, but it won’t be much of an upgrade. The Willis/Cabrera deal netted them Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller. Maybin is still technically a rookie but will lose that eligibility this season. I’m not a big fan of his, but he’s the Marlins clear #1 prospect. Miller, if he ever develops a reliable breaking ball, should be a solid middle of the rotation starter.

Mets: As we know, the Mets gutted their system to acquire Johan Santana. But their system was already well below average, and they didn’t trade any guys who profile as future stars. Sure, Carlos Gomez, but again, not a big fan of him. They managed to hold on to Fernando Martinez, their clear best prospect. I’m not a fan of Martinez, at least I won’t be until he displays something. He’s been very very young for each level, but that only counts for so much. After Martinez, the system takes a big plunge. Ruben Tejeda, a Latin American signing, is an intriguing shortstop prospect. The Mets “strength” is their middle tier arms, guys like Jon Niese, Nathan Vineyard, Scott Moviel and Brant Rustich. I say this is a strength, because they don’t have much else to even get excited about. I like Niese the most out of the group, and he could be a #3 starter if everything works out. In terms of upper level guys, Martinez is the closest really, but he needs to be slowed down and allowed to develop. Eddie Kunz is apparently on the Joe Smith trajectory, ie, making the major league team the spring after being drafted. It didn’t work out that well for Smith, as his stuff has flattened out since being drafted, and his stock is already down after a brilliant start. Kunz was a college closer, but from what I’ve seen of him pitch in college, I think he’s a 7th inning guy at best, definitely not a closer.

Nationals: The Nationals are the biggest movers on the list, and possibly the biggest movers in baseball. Had we done this a year ago, or two years ago, the Nats would have been near the bottom of all 30 teams across the board, but with new ownership in place, they’ve been very aggressive. The system is still thin, from the previous years of poor drafting and development, but the 2007 draft injected a bunch of quality talent. Michael Burgess, Ross Detwiler, Josh Smoker, Jack McGeary, Jordan Zimmerman and Jake Smolinski are all quality prospects, and immediately turned their Top 10 from embarrassing to respectable. Collin Balester, the one real holdover from the previous regime, is still a prospect, but probably nothing more than a #4 starter. He’s had some issues, so even getting to that level isn’t a given. The Nats strength right now is kind of hard to define. They have interesting pitching prospects (the guys above), and also some impact bats. One doesn’t really stand out above the other. Their two best prospects, Chris Marrero and Ross Detwiler, offer a slugging 1B and a potential #1/2 starter, so it kind of depends on what you’re looking for. I think I’d lean towards the pitching, with Detwiler leading the way. Colt Willems kind of gets lost in the shuffle with all of the new arms, but I expect him to really open some eyes in 2008. Offensively, Burgess is the brightest prospect outside of Marrero, but I think he’s going to struggle in 2008 adjusting to a full season league….just a hunch. Justin Maxwell is an interesting speed/decent power outfielder who rocketed through the system, but probably isn’t ready. Ian Demsond had looked very mediocre for a few seasons, but finished strong in 2007 and could eventually be the Nats regular shortstop, as was once thought. In terms of ML ready talent, the Nats have a few candidates. Marrero could force his way onto the roster sometime in 2008, but it probably won’t be in the Nats best interest. 1B is already a problem with both Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson looking for AB’s. The outfield is also crowded, with Pena, Dukes, Kearns and Milledge looking for regular AB’s as well. Maxwell should be up sometime in 2008, but again where he fits in is unclear. Detwiler is a polished college starter who shouldn’t need more than 1 season in the minors. The rest of the Nats arms, outside of Ballester, are probably a ways away. The core of the team at the major league level has some youth though, mainly in the outfielders previously named, and then the young pitchers like John Lannan, Jason Bergmann and Shawn Hill.

Phillies: Ah, our heroes. The Phillies obvious strength is minor league pitching. A good chunk of our Top 15 consists of arms, with two catchers and two middle infielders thrown in there, and then a toolsy outfielder or two. The value of our system is built around the likes of Carrasco, Savery and Outman panning out, and then getting performances out of guys like Drabek, Happ, Correa, and down the road, Julian Sampson. Somewhat surprisingly, the Phillies have 3 catchers in the minors who should be big leaguers at some point in the next 4 years, in Jaramillo, Marson and d’Arnaud. While we lack a surefire offensive star, Dominic Brown gives us reason for hope, coupling a great athletic tools package with some idea of the strike zone, unlike his fellow toolsy outfielder Greg Golson. Adrian Cardenas looks like a major league regular, probably an above average regular, but at what position, we still don’t know. Jason Donald and Brad Harman could still be regulars, in my opinion, even though most observers are already punching their “utilityman” tickets. A guy like Matt Spencer could give us another potential regular if he develops, after a somewhat disappointing college career. The Phillies took small steps to re-stock the system last June by adding the likes of Julian Sampson and Jiwan James later in the draft, but failed to sign their 3rd round pick. They also traded Michael Bourn and Mike Costanzo, thinning out some of the major league ready talent in the system. In terms of other near ML ready guys, you’d have to look at Joe Bisenius, James Happ, Drew Carpenter, and Mike Zagurski. Not exactly impact guys, but the Phillies will need much more pitching help than offensive help, so if one or two of these guys can be productive, it should be a big boost.

Drafting/International signing

Braves: The Braves continue to be active in Latin America, this year coming away with the best pitcher available, Julio Teahran, who has already been ranked as their #10 prospect by BA as a 16 year old, and draws comparisons to Felix Hernandez. They have also drafted well, getting the steal of the first round in Jason Heyward, signing draft and follow Cole Rohrbough, adding a college shortstop in Brandon Hicks, and two high ceiling guys in Jon Gilmore and Freddie Freeman. The Braves amateur scouting organization is impressive, and they scout their own backyard better than any other team in baseball, allowing them to pluck guys who are under the radar and constantly keep their system in the top half/top 10 in baseball.

Marlins: As I touched on above, the Marlins appear to be kind of stagnating in the draft/international waters. The Dominguez pick was solid, and they might have gotten one of the steals of the draft in Kyle Kaminska, but as a whole, I wasn’t a big fan of their 2007 draft, and I thought their 2006 draft was merely average. The Marlins haven’t come close to signing an international talent like Miguel Cabrera in 1999, though I guess that’s an unfair measuring stick to use. They just traded away their two biggest trading chips, and they got more quantity than quality out of the deal. If they are going to climb back up the mountain, they are going to have to draft really well over the next 2-3 seasons. But, the Marlins like to pla it safe in the draft in terms of spending money, so they’ll have to really scout hard and come up with the best value.

Mets: The Mets are odd in a number of ways. They are one of the richest teams in baseball and spend tons of money at the major league level, but they spend almost no money in the draft. Omar Minaya used to work in the Commissioner’s Office, so he’s been very hesitant to break the draft slots. This cost them prospect Pedro Beato in 2006, and will continue to cost them quality prospects going forward. The Mets didn’t pick until #55 last summer, and they drafted a college closer, again a somewhat puzzling move for a team with a modest to below average farm system. Where the Mets do trump most teams is Latin America, a portion of amateur talent that MLB doesn’t really seem to care about regulating. They’ve nabbed Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, and Carlos Gomez via this route, and the latter two helped them acquire Johan Santana. The Mets will continue to mine Latin America, and because of their reputation, and possibly the influence of Omar Minaya, will continue to acquire quality prospects. But they are definitely hurting themselves in the draft by passing on potential stars/impact players in order to draft middle relievers.

Nationals: As I touched on above, the Nats really revamped their entire approach last season. They appeared ready to take Matt Wieters, which would have clearly been a huge step up for them in terms of drafting profile, but “settled” on Ross Detwiler, arguably the best prospect on the board. They then added Michael Burgess and later went well over slot for Jack McGeary, and proceeded to give him a really great deal which will allow him to attend Stanford full time and play baseball in the summer until he’s completed his degree. The Nats have also splashed some money around in Latin America, signing highly touted shortsotp prospect Esmailyn Gonzalez for $1.4M. The new ownership group seems intent on building slowly and building from within, a sensible approach for a team in Washington’s position.

Phillies: I’ve let my disdain for the Phillies drafting process by known a number of times, so it probably won’t come as a surprise to read that I’m not happy with how things have gone, and how things will probably go in the future. The Phillies can say what they want, say they don’t live and die by the Commissioner’s decisions, but their drafting policy seems to indicate otherwise. The Phillies did go over slot to sign Julian Sampson and Jiwan James this summer, but they also failed to sign 3rd round pick Brandon Workman, and they took low ceiling college seniors in the first 10 picks, allowing them to sign these players for less than slot money, and then using that “savings” to sign Sampson. In the last few seasons, they have gone above slot, including Dominic Brown in 2006, but they aren’t exploiting the draft the way teams like Boston and the Yankees are. The talent is there, you just need to pay between $100,000 and $700,000 to get it. Of course, you shouldn’t just give huge above slot bonuses to everyone, but you also shouldn’t be drafting low ceiling college seniors in rounds 4-7 when your system is hurting in terms of overall talent. The Phillies have had mixed results internationally. They continue to look for undervalued gems in Australia, and now even Eastern Europe. It’s netted them guys like Drew Naylor and Brad Harman, but so far no superstars. Latin America has been a somewhat disappointing endeavor, as they’ve really only mined Carlos Carrasco and Edgar Garcia here, plus emerging Heitor Correa and Freddy Galvis. There are no real regulations here in terms of what you can and can’t spend, and for the Phillies to really be considered players, they are going to have to overpay and make a splash to re-establish their image in the area.

Overall/Summary/Parting shot

Braves: The Braves are still the class of the division in terms of farm team strength and overall philosophy. They continue to use controlled aggression in Latin America, and they continue to find undervalued guys in the draft every summer. Whether they will have the financial muscle available to put the finishing touches on at the major league level remains to be seen, but they will still continue to churn out homegrown, elite talent for the foreseeable future.

Marlins: The Marlins really are an embarrassment. Their owner is extorting the city to try and get a new stadium, and to do it, he’s putting out teams with a $15M payroll and trading away the team’s superstar before he even reaches free agency. This latest re-stocking attempt doesn’t look nearly as solid as the last one, and more importantly, what happens when Hanley Ramirez makes it to arbitration? The Marlins really belong under the control of someone competent, and probably in a place that is better suited for baseball. They have lots of young pitching at the major league level and a bunch of interesting guys in the minors, but they are going to need to have lots of things go right over the next 3 years to become a contender again.

Mets: The next two seasons are going to be critical for the Mets. Their last two drafts have been pretty poor, they’ve gutted their already weak system, and their major league roster is very old in almost every spot except shortstop and third base. They’re going to be tying up almost $60M into four guys next season (Beltran, Wright, Reyes and Santana), and won’t have a whole lot else prior to another round of free agent spending. Their system is quite poor, and they’ll need to quickly re-stock via the draft, as Latin American prospects are normally quite raw and need plenty of time to develop. The Mets might have the shortest window of opportunity of the the 5 teams in the division.

Nationals: The Nats appear to be on the right track. The new ownership group (who contains a guy who helped build the Atlanta dynasty) understands the importance of the draft, Latin America, and general player development. The big league team is not good, but they have one of the brightest managers in baseball, and if they remain patient, he should have some real talent to use in the next 3-4 years. The Nats system has probably already passed the Phillies, and they appear to be much more aggressive in terms of acquiring amateur talent. The Phillies big league club is still far ahead, but gaps like that can close rapidly.

Phillies: I feel like the Phillies system might be slightly underrated by the big outlets, but the reason for this is that most of our talent is in short season ball or the lower minors in general. Our track record of developing home grown talent is very good, both in terms of the current team and guys like Scott Rolen who have since moved on. The problem is, the Phillies are a big market team being run as a mid market team. They are not aggressive in the draft, they are not very aggressive in the baseball hotbeds abroad (Australia is not a hot bed), and they aren’t exceptional in terms of developing raw players into stars or even above average regulars. A number of prospects could go from fringy to above average next year, but it seems like the Phillies are more of a “hold your breath and hope for the best” organization right now than a pro-active, aggressive organization. And that really is a shame.