And unfortunately, more cowbell is not the cure. I’ll get back on track tomorrow. But for now, I’d ask that you ponder more possible questions for Kevin Goldstein, which can be posted in the BP Top 11 prospects post from yesterday, or I guess just post them here. And here’s a bonus discussion question for the day. Of Travis Blackley, Lincoln Holdzkom, or Joe Bisenius, which is more likely to make the 25 man roster out of spring training? The rumors on a Kris Benson signing are getting stronger, and he’d compete with Adam Eaton and presumably Blackley for a rotation spot. The Rule 5 guys have an edge up, obviously, because they can’t be optioned down. But with a strong spring, will Bisenius make the roster? Have your say.
22 thoughts on “I’ve got a fever”
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Phuture Phillies 
Hey, I’ve also got a 101-degree fever so I’m sitting around online, exempt from classes today…although I’d gladly go to them in exchange for being healthy.
It’s hard to imagine Benson would sign a major-league deal unless he were pretty confident that he was going to make the rotation. Which obviously leaves the question of who is the odd-man out. I suppose it would be Eaton, but that’s a pretty expensive 6th-inning bullpen guy. Or if Benson is locked up maybe Gillick has something up his sleeves in terms of a Kendrick trade for a guy like Blanton (highly doubt this however).
Does anyone know how many more options Bisenius has? I guess the clock is starting to tick a little bit for him. It’s not like he’s 21 still or anything. Perhaps Blackley can nail down a bullpen job as well, although having like 8 guys on the pitching staff that prefer to be starters could get a little complex.
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I think Blackley is the most likely to make the final roster. Gillick and Amaro seem to like him as a long reliever/spot starter, while Chad Durbin is better used in a strictly relief role (based on his splits at least). I see J.D. Durbin competing with Blackley for that role, and whoever wins the spring training battle gets the job.
Both Bisenius and Holdzkom will have to be lights out in the spring to get a shot, methinks.
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I suspect we are taking 12 pitchers with us north. So those 12 are:
1. Hamels 8. 1 of the Durbins
2. Myers 9. Benson OR Eaton
3. Moyer 10. Kendrick
4. Lidge 11. 1 of Blackley, Zagurski, Castro,
5. Romero Youman
6. Gordon 12. 1 of Condrey, Holdzkom, Rosario,
7. Madson Bisenius
My bet is on Eaton, Chad Durbin, Blackley, and Bisenius
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I expect that Benson will sign today or tomorrow to add another arm which is great if they don’t pay much. The ripple effect will be interesting. I’m still not sure that Eaton is healthy. Unlike most of you, I actually think that Eaton is good enough to get wins with this offense when he’s healthy and I question whether he’s healthy. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he comes up with a bum arm during spring training and needs surgery. If I’m wrong, that would be great. Let us not forget, as several of us discussed during the winter, that Kendrick has options left. Barring injuries, I don’t see Benson, Moyer, or Eaton in the bullpen but what are the odds that they’re all healthy. As for Bisenius, I don’t think he has any chance of going north although I think Blickely has a good shot if he pitches well. Tomorrow, it all starts again. Finally!!!!
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Cowbell. Classic. Probably one of my favorite SNL skits ever.
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Last year they used up one of Bisenius’s options in the beginning of the year for no reason. They kept him on the team, barely used him or gave him a shot and then sent him down. I’d prefer they keep him at AAA so he can figure out whatever it is he needs to do get his head on straight and only bring him up when they are ready for him to be a permanent fixture in the bullpen.
Also, in my eyes Chad Durbin is the long man in the bullpen and spot starter if the #5 ends up being terrible. So that pretty much puts JD durbin and Condrey out of a job even though Mitch Williams thinks JD’s stuff had back of the pen potential. I felt Condrey pitched well last year given how he was called up and down constantly and never really given a lot of credit for how well he pitched when he was called upon. I figured he wouldn’t really get a fair shot to make the team this year but I don’t think he’s going to make a huge difference either.
If Benson and Eaton both pitch well in the spring don’t be surprised to see Kendrick start the year in AAA.
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I think Eaton, if in fact healthy, will be our 5th starter. Chad Durbin will compete with Blackley for the long man role. Holdzcom is a 500-1 shot to make it, IMO. He will compete with Rosario and Bisenius as a hard thrower for 6th inning if a spot is open. If healthy, Bisenius has the inside track there.
In short:
–Holdzcom no
–Bisenius yes if healthy
–Blackley unlikely unless he regains his pre-injury dominatig form
Don’t see the Rule 5s havig an inside track unless they pitch really well.
IMO, Kendrick would have to fracture his arm or give up multiple consecutive HRs not to make it. He is as close to a lock as you can get. Healthy reliable pitchers? We have four: Hamles, Myers, Kendrick and Moyer. They won’t be messed with at all.
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While I do like Kendrick in the rotation as well, I made the above statement because he has options and can go down. And if Eaton and Benson are pitching well I think they are more likely to go with the veterans and have the ability to bring Kendrick up rather than be forced to cut one of the veterans (Benson, since they won’t eat Eaton’s salary). As fans we loved seeing Kendrick come up and perform the way he did last year but I think that whether he can repeat that performance is on the back of the Phils minds. So if they can have two vets in the rotation and allow Kendrick to still grow and have a solid call up if one should faulter makes sense. Of course this is all reliant on BOTH of them pitching well which isn’t very likely.
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Understand what you’re saying, and given a glut of healthy, performing pitchers, that would be an option. For example. If they had, say, Hamels, Myers, John Maine, Ian Snell, Moyer and Kendrick, they might give Kendrick another few months of AAA, with Moyer as the #5, and bring Kyle up when the inevitable injury occurs. But we have nothing like that. Kendrick is seen as our #3 right now, although he profiles as a #4 or #5 today (not able to dominate often). He would have to show he was unsound or unraveled to send him down. We don’t have the luxury of sending healthy performers to the minors and using lame or inexperienced pitchers instead. A send-down has no chance of happening unless he flops monumentally.
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Benson signs minor league deal, and his velocity is supposedly only 60-70 percent. Usually on minor league deals if the player doesn’t make the team he can opt out, does anyone think that he’d be willing to pitch in Allentown until his arm gets stronger and then could be a late season addition or trade piece?
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The odds that we start the season with a glut of healthy pitchers who are pitching well is, unfortunately, vanishingly small. We are still in the stage of auditioning so-so guys to hope a few of them catch on in the remaining open slots. We likely will go north with at least one guy who are not pitching well, possibly Eaton and likely Blackley, for contractual/control reasons.
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The way I see it, the locks are
Rotation:Hamels, Myers, Kendrick, Moyer,
Bullpen:
Lidge, Madson, Gordon, Romero, C. Durbin (if he doesn’t win the fifth spot in the rotation), Eaton (since he’s being paid so much)
That leaves some pretty wide-open competition. I don’t see Holdzkom making the team. I don’t see Eaton not starting the season on the DL. I don’t see Benson starting the season with the team (he’s been signed, pending a physical).
There’s a lot to prove, especially for Blackley. He could hold down the fifth spot until Benson is ready to come back up (i.e., once he regains his velocity).
I don’t THINK Bisenius should make the team — he hasn’t proven that he’s figured out whatever went wrong with him last season. However, I could see the Phillies taking him North yet again with the big club.
And I’m not totally opposed to Condrey staying with the club out of Spring Training, either. He pitched reliably last season and pitched whenever he was asked to. It’s always good to have gamers out in the ‘pen.
You don’t send down healthy, young, cheap, and dependable pitchers. Kendrick makes the club. No question.
And P.S., I don’t see Benson being a trade piece.
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I would think extended spring training with 2-3 “rehab” starts in Allentown is a lot more likely for Benson than actually starting the season in Allentown if he’s not ready.
Of those 3 I’d have to say I think Blackley has the best shot at making the team. As its been mentioned, Holdzcom will need to be lights out in the spring to go north with the big club and in the same vein, if Bisenius isn’t lights out its probably in both his and the teams best interest to have him start in Allentown where he can pitch and develop more.
For a KG question, I’d like to know if he sees any potential for the Phillies to make a Texas Rangers-like jump in the rankings this year. Not implying the Phillies could be top 5 next year, but if the draft goes well, guys moving up to AA succeed (Outman, Carrasco, Donald), Savery dominates A ball and does well in AA and/or AAA and half of the other 3-star prospects have big years, can the Phillies be a top 10 team? I realize thats very optimistic but is reasonably possible?
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Darin, I agree that the potential does exist for Kendrick to start in AAA. I do, however, think the Phils will “use” the DL or extended spring training for a few pitchers if things dont necessarily sort themselves out in the spring, which would keep Kyle in the rotation. Eaton and Benson seem like logical candidates to start on the DL or stay in FL so we can get a better look at Holdzkom and/or Blackley. Unless of course, Benson and Eaton are lights out in spring training, then Kendrick might go to AAA, but not sure Benson will be 100% til the season begins. Bisenius has an option ( I believe) so he will have to be unhittable in the spring to come North with the team.
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The ’08 season not only promises some good things from the big club but also gives us a chance to see the development of several of our signees throughout the system.
We drafted several guys early out of HS who usually take a season or two to accomodate to pro ball. Then there is the guy that we all will be watching closely: Dom Brown.
Add in Golson who MAYBE has “found it.”..??
J Donald, B. Harman, A. Carpenter, Outman, Marson, Carrasco, E. Garcia, Cardenas, German, Naylor, Savery, Dieckman, Sampson, Correa, Milner, etc.
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You’re right, Art D., Reading will be an exciting place to be this summer. I’m glad I’ll get to see many of the Phillies top prospects play in First Energy Stadium.
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I think Bisenius would have made the team out of spring training, until some of the offseason signings. Now it’s going to be very difficult for him to make it, due to the surplus of arms we have available (too many mediocre guys than I can count).
Benson will start the season at AAA and work his way back into pitching on a consistent basis, and I think, if healthy he could make a difference on this team as a 4th or 5th starter. I like the signing strictly for its low risk high reward potential, although this signing does put the others earlier in the offseason in question. I know “you can never have too many arms” but where is the line drawn when you are blocking young players from getting a legitimate shot with our team (Happ, Segovia, Bisenius, Mathieson). I’m pulling for the young guys and that the management doesn’t keep signing decent older pitchers that are tweeners between the ‘pen and the starting rotation.
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I don’t see Blackley making the team simply on potential, with Phils hiding him away for a year with mop-up innings (a la Fabio Castro)–if that’s what’s being suggested. He will have to earn a spot and prove he can play a significant role.
Given that he has come back somewhat from past surgery to be a serviceable AAA guy, he will have to show even more post-op recovery this spring to stick. If he is a little better than AAA level, he might have a chance to be the second lefty in the pen, if he looks like he can get LH hitters out. He would have to come back from 75% of what he formerly was (he used to have Randy Wolf potential) to 90-95% to make the rotation. In other words, he will have to wow the staff, put hitters away with authority, and really show he has kicked it up a notch.
If not, then what’s the diff between him and a Clay Condrey or Brian Mazone (who is also a lefty)?
To me Phils took a flyer to see if he can raise it one more level. If not, maybe the pen, but more likely goodbye.
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if ANYTHING the benson signing gives the younger guys a bit of motivation to perform the first half of the year….
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Looks’s like PP has something worse than Phillies phever.
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As much as I like Kendrick, I certainly don’t see him as a lock. He’s young, he has options and it is a long season. I too would be suprised if we left Clearwater with the rotation intact, but you have to protect as many pitchers as possible.
I think that both J.D. Durbin and Francisco Rosario will end up at AAA even though they are both out of options. Neither showed enough last year that anyone would be willing to waste a roster spot on them.
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Slinging Southpaw:
I’m not so sure about Rosario and JD Durbin both reporting to AAA. One or the other just might get claimed. Durbin did chuck a shutout last season, and Rosario pitched well in the recent Caribbean Series. Besides, if either one dominates in ST, we might see him with the Phillies on opening day. Its a longshot, but I’ve seen stranger things happen. A lot depends on Eaton.
I’m most curious which lefty reliever sticks: someone has to step up and force the issue.
Gonna be a good fight and a difficult decision for the last two or three spots.
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