Phillies Top 11 Prospects, per BP

Top Prospect Lists

Kevin Goldstein at BP released his Top 11 Phillies prospects today. You can read the full article here. Here’s the scouting report on Carlos Carrasco

1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
DOB: 3/21/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2003, Venezuela
2007 Stats: 2.84 ERA at High-A (69.2-49-22-53); 4.86 ERA at Double-A (70.1-65-46-49)

Year In Review: The pitcher who broke out in 2006 continued to get outs at High-A, but scuffled following a mid-season promotion to the Double-A Eastern League.
The Good: Carrasco’s low-90s fastball can touch 94 at times and has excellent movement. He throws it for strikes, and when he gets ahead in the count he makes batters look foolish with a plus-plus changeup that drops off the table as it spins towards hitters. His curveball is solid, and he mixes his pitches well. He doesn’t turn 21 until March, and his frame still offers some projection, as do his fluid mechanics.
The Bad: Carrasco’s control went backwards significantly at Double-A, as he got too fine with his location. He needs to trust his stuff more and be comfortable depending on his defense, as he’s not going to be a big-time strikeout pitcher. Some scouts see him as a bit of a tweener-–without the stuff to be a pure power pitcher, or the finesse to be a command/control specialist.
Fun Fact: During his 14 Double-A appearances, Carrasco had a 3.02 ERA at home, but a miserable 9.61 mark on the road.
Perfect World Projection: Opinions vary on Carrasco. Most believe he’ll at least be a good No. 3 starter, and some think he’ll be more than that.
Timetable: Youth is on Carrasco’s side, and he’ll begin 2008 with another shot at conquering Double-A.

Joe Savery was also a “4 star prospect”, coming in at #2. We then had a bunch of 3 star guys

03. Adrian Cardenas
04. Josh Outman
05. Kyle Drabek
06. Travis d’Arnaud
07. Lou Marson
08. Jason Donald
09. Dominic Brown

and then two 2 star prospects

10. Drew Carpenter
11. Travis Mattair

With our “just missed” guys being Freddy Galvis, Greg Golson, and Julian Sampson. Our sleeper prospect was Tyler Mach. Someone alert Art D, he’ll be pumped. KG’s final summary

The Phillies system is not an especially strong one, but although the organization has never had a reputation for being especially strong in its scouting and player development, the roster currently has a home-grown ace in Hamels and three self-supplied MVP candidates in the lineup in Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley. That combination is one that few organizations can come anywhere close to claiming.

So, discuss. As I mentioned last week, Kevin has agreed to do another Q/A here, so I’ll be putting together a list of questions to send him. If you have a good one, post it in the comments here. Thanks.

EDIT

Since much of the article is premium content, I will just give the “future outlook” and 2008 starting destinations for each player

Savery:

Perfect World Projection: Savery’s ceiling is at least the same, if not a little higher than Carrasco’s, but he’s also further from it.
Timetable: Providing that Savery is healthy and throwing strikes, he could skip a level and begin his 2008 season in the High-A Florida State League rotation.

Cardenas:

Perfect World Projection: Ray Durham minus the speed?
Timetable: Cardenas was good in 2007, but not good enough to earn any kind of accelerated timetable. He’ll spend 2008 in the Florida State League.

Outman:

Perfect World Projection: A solid mid-rotation starer.
Timetable: Like Carrasco, Outman needs another shot at Double-A, and he’ll join the team’s top prospect in the Reading rotation.

Drabek:

Perfect World Projection: When he was drafted, he looked like he could be a No. 2 starter, but he’s further from that now than he was 18 months ago.
Timetable: Drabek’s recovery has gone as planned, and the Phillies hope he’ll be ready to return to action during the second half of the season.

d’Arnaud:

Perfect World Projection: An everyday big league catcher with plus defensive value and enough bat to hit sixth in a good lineup.
Timetable: D’Arnaud showed enough to be ready for a full-season league, so he’ll be the everyday catcher at Low-A Lakewood in 2008.

Marson:

Perfect World Projection: An average big-league catcher.
Timetable: Marson will play at Double-A in 2008, and he’s in an interesting situation, as the Phillies have some depth at catcher, with Jason Jaramillo ahead of him, and D’Arnaud coming up from behind.

Donald:

Perfect World Projection: An everyday second baseman, and even if that doesn’t work out, Donald should have value as a platoon/utility player.
Timetable: Donald has nothing left to prove at the lower levels of the system, and will probably begin the 2008 season at Double-A.

Brown:

Perfect World Projection: Brown’s ceiling is through the roof, but the gap between what he is and what he can be rivals that of any prospect in the system.
Timetable: Brown will get his first taste of full-season ball in 2008, beginning the year at Low-A Lakewood.

Carpenter:

Perfect World Projection: A back-of-the-rotation innings-eater.
Timetable: Carpenter might not have much of a ceiling, but he could be ready soon, as he’ll begin 2008 in a crowded rotation at Double-A Reading.

Mattair:

Perfect World Projection: Like Brown, Mattair brings a ton of potential to the table, but right now he’s eons away from being ready.
Timetable: Unless Mattair makes a dramatic step forward in spring training, he could be held back in extended spring training in preparation for an assignment to the New York-Penn League.

19 thoughts on “Phillies Top 11 Prospects, per BP”

  1. Seems like pretty honest and accurate assessments to me. I agree with Savery as our #2 prospect with big upside. I’m thrilled by the comments about D’Arnaud. As I’ve said in the past, I think Jaramillo will be traded for pitching once Marson establishes himself further and if D’Arnaud comes on fast, it will really make the situation interesting. At the least the Phillies will have value to trade for once.
    As to the nice comment about the home grown ace plus 3 home grown MVP worthy players, add the #2 starter and the #5 hitter to that equation as well. As bad as their system has been, having arguably 6 key players as home drafted players is very good. That would be a good comparison for those of you that have time. Does anyone have more than that on their roster?

    Like

  2. I read the full report on Brown, his pros and cons, and am very excited the Phillies put up the money for him. Hopefully he can make us forget about Golson.

    I think if Golson has an inkling of putting something together this year he needs to be shipped out and traded. I hope he’ll at least give us some value out of him even if its in a trade.

    Also, where’s the love for Harman? Couldn’t he at least be a “just missed” or “sleeper” or something?

    As for sleeper what about D’Arby?

    The more I read these prospect lists and grades the more i feel this year is the time to unload and go for it all. We have a legit team in the NL and have peices in place to make upgrades later in the year. Which we will need to get by the Braves and Mets.

    Like

  4. I’d love to know if Kevin thinks any or all of Cardenas, Donald or Harman could make the move to 3rd, as it sounds like we could be waiting 3-5 years for Mattair.

    Also his feelings on Heitor Correa and Edgar Garcia would be interesting.

    Like

  5. Also, getting kevin’s take on the phillies breaking into Australia and the hot-bed-of-talent that is eastern europe would be cool as well.

    Like

  6. This was a little more optimistic than I’d expected him to be, though I was surprised and a bit disappointed to see him so blah on Marson and no mention of Harman.

    I think there’s generally consensus on the state of the Phils’ system: decent and improving depth, particularly at LHP, catcher and middle infield, but few obviously high-ceiling guys. This was why they couldn’t seriously get in on conversations for guys like Haren and Bedard.

    Still, if two or three of the “three-star” prospects really come on in ’08, the system could look pretty good a year from now. Doubly so if they do the right thing for once and bust slot in the draft.

    Like

  8. Mach duly noted. Hope they PUSH him to Clwtr Threshers. And, hope they will try him somewhere besides 2nd base. 3B? LF?

    Possible righty power hitter. We’ll see.

    Like

  9. Everything I have read about D’Arnaud has questioned his bat. Saying he can hit in the 6 hole in a good lineup is pretty hefty praise. That would mean hitting for some BA and OBP with at least some power. Do you know the basis for this projection? Does he have great bat speed, raw power, nice stroke, plate discipline, etc.?

    Like

  10. 9. Dominic Brown, OF
    DOB: 9/3/87 Bats/Throws: L/L
    Drafted: 20th round, 2006, Redan HS (GA)
    2007 Stats: .295/.356/.400 at Short-season (74 G); .444/.545/.889 at High-A (3 G)

    Year In Review: Although a twentieth-round pick from two years ago, Brown got $200,000 to sign, and looked to be worth even more than that in his second year at a short-season league.

    The Good: For many, Brown has replaced Greg Golson as the top high-ceiling player in the system, and he’s one who offers plenty to dream on. His long, athletic frame gives him plus power potential, as well as the speed for 20+ stolen bases annually. He’s a good center fielder with a plus arm, and the Phillies believe that his surprisingly advanced approach will lead to bigger numbers as he advances through the system.

    The Bad: Brown focused more on football in high school, and his lack of experience shows in games. He needs to improve his reads in the outfield, and at the plate he still can be fooled by good breaking balls. His swing currently has more of a slashing style to it, and it needs to be retooled a bit in order to allow Brown to turn on balls and generate backspin.

    Fun Fact: When batting in the ninth inning for Williamsport last year, Brown went 7-for-17 with two of his three home runs.

    Perfect World Projection: Brown’s ceiling is through the roof, but the gap between what he is and what he can be rivals that of any prospect in the system.

    Timetable: Brown will get his first taste of full-season ball in 2008, beginning the year at Low-A Lakewood.

    Like

  11. d’Arnaud has excellent raw power, bat speed, etc. Right now, he lacks a good batters eye. Swings and misses at alot of pitches, but when he makes contact, he always hits the ball quite hard.

    Like

  12. I think this is a big year for the system. If guys like brown, drabeck, mattair, outman and others make the strides they can and we make good picks ( and sign them) with the six we have in the first three rounds the system could rank in the top 15 or 10 in the game, then we’d be able to make whatever trade we wanted or have the guys ready to offset free agent losses.

    Like

  13. By years end there will be a number of these guys who could be in AAA and pushing for the majors:
    Outman, Carpenter, and Carrasco as pitchers and Marson and Donald as hitters. This could be the year that the team finally puts a number of prospects on the brink of the majors and possibly jumping up the ranks in farm systems.

    two years ago low A = championship
    last year high A = championship
    this year double A = ??

    Like

  14. The common thread to both championship teams is Lou Marson. He was there for all the games in the Sally and the FSL. Remember the 06 Sally championship finals when Lou threw out base stealing champ and now Giant prospect Eugenio Velez twice in the same game. Velez , an 07 Sept. Giant call up, has stolen all four bases he attempted so far in the ML.

    Like

  15. Thanks for the info, PhilLee. Sounds like a potential above avg starter if he learns, and still might be better than Fasano or Barajas if he doesn’t develop the plate savvy, considering the great D and power.

    Like

  17. Brown really came on last season after a poor rookie year in 2006. In 117 AB he recorded a line of .214/.292/.265/.657 with the only redeeming features being that he walked about every 10 plate appearances and stole 13 bases.

    Like

  19. Before I can come to that conclusion I would have to see what Brown does in his full season, he did not do well in his rookie season or the beginning of his last season, so let’s see what he does in his full season

    Like

Comments are closed.