Daily Archives: February 12, 2008

Phillies Top 11 Prospects, per BP

Kevin Goldstein at BP released his Top 11 Phillies prospects today. You can read the full article here. Here’s the scouting report on Carlos Carrasco

1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
DOB: 3/21/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2003, Venezuela
2007 Stats: 2.84 ERA at High-A (69.2-49-22-53); 4.86 ERA at Double-A (70.1-65-46-49)

Year In Review: The pitcher who broke out in 2006 continued to get outs at High-A, but scuffled following a mid-season promotion to the Double-A Eastern League.
The Good: Carrasco’s low-90s fastball can touch 94 at times and has excellent movement. He throws it for strikes, and when he gets ahead in the count he makes batters look foolish with a plus-plus changeup that drops off the table as it spins towards hitters. His curveball is solid, and he mixes his pitches well. He doesn’t turn 21 until March, and his frame still offers some projection, as do his fluid mechanics.
The Bad: Carrasco’s control went backwards significantly at Double-A, as he got too fine with his location. He needs to trust his stuff more and be comfortable depending on his defense, as he’s not going to be a big-time strikeout pitcher. Some scouts see him as a bit of a tweener-–without the stuff to be a pure power pitcher, or the finesse to be a command/control specialist.
Fun Fact: During his 14 Double-A appearances, Carrasco had a 3.02 ERA at home, but a miserable 9.61 mark on the road.
Perfect World Projection: Opinions vary on Carrasco. Most believe he’ll at least be a good No. 3 starter, and some think he’ll be more than that.
Timetable: Youth is on Carrasco’s side, and he’ll begin 2008 with another shot at conquering Double-A.

Joe Savery was also a “4 star prospect”, coming in at #2. We then had a bunch of 3 star guys

03. Adrian Cardenas
04. Josh Outman
05. Kyle Drabek
06. Travis d’Arnaud
07. Lou Marson
08. Jason Donald
09. Dominic Brown

and then two 2 star prospects

10. Drew Carpenter
11. Travis Mattair

With our “just missed” guys being Freddy Galvis, Greg Golson, and Julian Sampson. Our sleeper prospect was Tyler Mach. Someone alert Art D, he’ll be pumped. KG’s final summary

The Phillies system is not an especially strong one, but although the organization has never had a reputation for being especially strong in its scouting and player development, the roster currently has a home-grown ace in Hamels and three self-supplied MVP candidates in the lineup in Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley. That combination is one that few organizations can come anywhere close to claiming.

So, discuss. As I mentioned last week, Kevin has agreed to do another Q/A here, so I’ll be putting together a list of questions to send him. If you have a good one, post it in the comments here. Thanks.

EDIT

Since much of the article is premium content, I will just give the “future outlook” and 2008 starting destinations for each player

Savery:

Perfect World Projection: Savery’s ceiling is at least the same, if not a little higher than Carrasco’s, but he’s also further from it.
Timetable: Providing that Savery is healthy and throwing strikes, he could skip a level and begin his 2008 season in the High-A Florida State League rotation.

Cardenas:

Perfect World Projection: Ray Durham minus the speed?
Timetable: Cardenas was good in 2007, but not good enough to earn any kind of accelerated timetable. He’ll spend 2008 in the Florida State League.

Outman:

Perfect World Projection: A solid mid-rotation starer.
Timetable: Like Carrasco, Outman needs another shot at Double-A, and he’ll join the team’s top prospect in the Reading rotation.

Drabek:

Perfect World Projection: When he was drafted, he looked like he could be a No. 2 starter, but he’s further from that now than he was 18 months ago.
Timetable: Drabek’s recovery has gone as planned, and the Phillies hope he’ll be ready to return to action during the second half of the season.

d’Arnaud:

Perfect World Projection: An everyday big league catcher with plus defensive value and enough bat to hit sixth in a good lineup.
Timetable: D’Arnaud showed enough to be ready for a full-season league, so he’ll be the everyday catcher at Low-A Lakewood in 2008.

Marson:

Perfect World Projection: An average big-league catcher.
Timetable: Marson will play at Double-A in 2008, and he’s in an interesting situation, as the Phillies have some depth at catcher, with Jason Jaramillo ahead of him, and D’Arnaud coming up from behind.

Donald:

Perfect World Projection: An everyday second baseman, and even if that doesn’t work out, Donald should have value as a platoon/utility player.
Timetable: Donald has nothing left to prove at the lower levels of the system, and will probably begin the 2008 season at Double-A.

Brown:

Perfect World Projection: Brown’s ceiling is through the roof, but the gap between what he is and what he can be rivals that of any prospect in the system.
Timetable: Brown will get his first taste of full-season ball in 2008, beginning the year at Low-A Lakewood.

Carpenter:

Perfect World Projection: A back-of-the-rotation innings-eater.
Timetable: Carpenter might not have much of a ceiling, but he could be ready soon, as he’ll begin 2008 in a crowded rotation at Double-A Reading.

Mattair:

Perfect World Projection: Like Brown, Mattair brings a ton of potential to the table, but right now he’s eons away from being ready.
Timetable: Unless Mattair makes a dramatic step forward in spring training, he could be held back in extended spring training in preparation for an assignment to the New York-Penn League.

My Top 100 prospects

Ah yes, my personal Top 100. As well as being an avid follower of the Phillies minor leaguers, I’ve always closely followed the systems of other teams. I find player development really interesting, as well as the draft process, and when you start following these guys in high school and college, it’s always natural to continue to follow them when they enter pro ball, even if it’s not for your favorite team. A few caveats, before I get to my list. I shouldn’t really have to outline this, but there will invariably be someone who flies off, if they happen to find my blog and they read about me ranking prospects in a certain order. I’m not a scout, I don’t profess to be a scout, and while I know a few people, my network pales in comparison to those at BP, BA, ESPN, and every other prospect authority in the business. My knowledge comes from reading what others have to say, discerning useful info from those reports, watching these prospects when I can, and looking at basic peripheral numbers. Every prospect list out there is going to contain guys that fall flat on their face, as well as guys placed higher than the “consensus opinion”, and some of those guys will go on to be stars. I generally don’t worry about where the group think position is on a player. There are some guys who are generally loved that I’m not as high on (Homer Bailey), and some guys that aren’t loved that aren’t love as much (Omar Poveda) that I really like. These lists are just guesses as to who will and who won’t make it at the next level, and above everything else, I think it’s a lot of fun. So now that I got the disclaimers out of the way…

Continue reading My Top 100 prospects