I just wanted to address this, since it’s been mentioned a number of times in comments on various posts. When I post an excerpt of an article from BA, from Kevin Goldstein, from Keith Law, or from any other source, you need to remember 2 things before you even read the article. This is one person’s opinion, or in the case of BA, one site’s opinion. That’s it. It’s an opinion. You take time to learn about who is giving the opinion, and then you figure out how much importance it has to you. Keith Law has scouting experience, he goes and sees almost every player he writes about, and in most cases, he’s been seeing them play in person since they were in high school. He doesn’t have a “bias”, and he doesn’t “hate the Phillies”. These sites are not out to get the Phillies, they have no incentive to downgrade or upgrade Carlos Carrasco’s outlook. They are providing opinions. I like to think I follow the minors closely, but I don’t get to see Josh Outman pitch 30 times a season, and even if I did, I don’t have the extensive scouting background of some of these other guys, and I don’t have baselines for comparison to compare a guy like Josh Outman to a guy like Jake McGee. What I try to do here is post as much information as I can find, try to get as many opinions as I can, and then try and maybe find guys who might be ready to break out, based on their peripheral numbers. I have my gut feelings on certain guys, some of whom will be complete busts, and some of whom will break out. Every player who invests time into following the minors feels the same.
I felt the need to write this post, because it seems like people are slating these guys giving their opinions, and saying that they don’t know what they are talking about, or how “it’s all just a crapshoot anyway, so they don’t know anything”. Well, you’re kind of right, it is a crapshoot. The number of guys who don’t make it far outweigh the number of guys who do. But the job is to try and find the guys who are more likely to make it, and figure out in what capacity they will make it. No one thought Kyle Kendrick would be a middle of the rotation starter. He was in the 15-20 range of most Phillies prospect lists. He came up and got really good results. But he did it for a half season. Lots of guys have come up to the majors out of obscurity and had great half seasons, or even one great full season, and then they’ve completely hit the wall. Remember Zach Duke? He lit the NL on fire a few years ago, but his scouting reports always talked about his fringy stuff. The second time through the league he got battered around, then he got hurt, now he’s off everyone’s radar. Guys who evaluate prospects will miss more times than they will hit, but that’s the case for prospects in general. You want the guys who give reasons for why they support guys they like and why they criticize guys they don’t like. You file it away into your memory bank, and in a few years, you check it again and see where the player ended up.
Finally, since a commenter argued that the Phillies never have good representation on these lists, and prospect evaluators miss the boat on Phillies guys, here are the Phillies who’ve made the BA Top 100 over the last 7 or 8 years
2000: Burrell (#2), Baisley (#52), Rollins (#95)
2001: Rollins (#31), Myers (#47), Baisley (#78)
2002: Byrd (#26), Myers (#33), Floyd (#56)
2003: Floyd (#9), Byrd (#63), Utley (#81), Buchholz (#88)
2004: Hamels (#17), Floyd (#23)
2005: Howard (#27), Floyd (#35), Hamels (#71)
2006: Hamels (#68), Gonzalez (#73)
Burrell was ranked #2 in all of the minors before he lost his eligibility. They had Rollins in the Top 100 even when he was putting up modest minor league numbers, and he lost his eligibility in 2001. Myers was always on the list, they had Utley on the list after only 1 good minor league season and 2 modest seasons. Hamels was downgraded because of the constant injury worries. Howard was 27th before losing eligibility. Victorino was a Rule 5 guy, a fringe prospect, and he’s blossomed in the majors, not in the minors. No one, including Phillies fans, really saw that coming. Even before his breakout season in AAA, he’d already lost his rookie eligibility in a previous season. The Phillies were always bringing guys up and letting them take their licks in the majors. It happened with Rollins and Myers, and they brought Utley up and exhausted his eligibility for these lists before he really had a chance to destroy the minors. Teams like Tampa Bay leave their prospects in the minors longer because of service time concerns, and thats why they tend to have more guys listed on these types of lists.
So my advice is, don’t get too upset when Phillies prospects aren’t salivated over. The Phillies system does lack bigtime impact stars. That doesn’t mean that guys won’t break out in 2008. D’Arby Myers has 5 tool talent, if he’s healthy in 2008 and has a big year, he’ll show up on prospect lists. If Drabek is healthy and dominates, he’ll move up, same with Savery, and if guys like Outman, who have their flaws, improve they can also jump up these lists. But on the flip side, these guys are just as likely to flame out completely, in fact, that’s even more likely, based on the prospect odds. So, before you call someone “a blowhard” or just write them off as not knowing anything because they don’t think Adrian Cardenas is the next Chase Utley, take a step back, understand where they are coming from, and then just file their opinion away with everything else you read about Phillies prospects.
Phuture Phillies 
I don’t think Keith Law has an ax to grind against the Phillies, but he’s a writer and not a scout. I’ve read enough of his Insider Columns to also know he likes to be controversial.
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When he worked in Toronto, his job entailed going to scout games all summer, especially the big showcase events. Now at ESPN, he attends all of the big spring events, and regularly scouts prospects during the season. He focuses on analysis, but he still does scout, and that is his baseball background.
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Here’s is what the Yankees spent on draft picks in recent years:
2007: $7.4 million.
2006: $6.3 million
2005: $3.7 million
2004: $4.8 million
2003: $3.8 million
and the Red Sox:
2007: $3.5 million
2006: $6.8 million
2005: $6.2 million
2004: $1.8 million
2003: $5.1 million
Do you have the same information for the Phillies?
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Sure. BA has the bonus money for the top 10 rounds listed. I’ll use that number and then add any listed bonuses after Rd 10.
2007: $3.852M ($3.312 + $540k for Sampson and Jiwan James)
2006: $4.662M
2005: $1.80M (no first rounder, Costanzo was first pick)
2004: $3.373M
2003: $1.219M (first pick was in 3rd round)
Basically, to really get something out of this exercise, you need to eliminate the first round pick from every team. The difference in bonus money from #1 overall and #30 overall is like 2-3 million, sometimes even more, and that can really tilt things.
The Phillies gave away a lot of high draft picks during Wade’s tenure.
Here are the guys who’ve gotten more than slot money since 2005 for the Phils.
2007: Kissock (50K, average is like 5-10K, if anything), Sampson (390K is like 2nd/3rd RD money), James (150K, 5th round money)
2006: Walls (50K in 10th RD), Dubee (125K in 18th RD), Dominic Brown (200K in 20th RD)
2005: Outman (52K in 10th RD)
The big ones were obviously Sampson and Dominic Brown, and the 200K investment in Brown already looks solid. While those are nice, and while I applaud the Sampson deal, the Phillies are a team that really needs to take a chance on 4 or 5 of those guys for the next few drafts in an attempt to try and re-stock the shelves.
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James,
I’m not sure that the Zach Duke example is 100% accurate. I think it’s one-half what you mentioned (him failing to make adjustments the second time around) as well as the Pirates tinkering with his delivery, which I remember as being fairly unorthodox. Duke apparently feels very good about this season under the new pitching coach they have in Pittsburgh, and has returned to his old delivery. I think he’s gotten wiser as a pitcher from taking his lumps for the past season or two.
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Duke’s stuff was always fringy and people projected him more as a #3 or #4 than a #1. He posted that shiny 1.81 ERA in 85 innings and everyone got carried away and looked past the scouting reports. Thats kind of what I feel has happened with Kendrick, albeit to a lesser extent. That was all I was trying to illustrate.
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It’s a good point, I’m pretty sure I speak for most Phillies fans when I say that I’m crossing my fingers about Kendrick. He seems like he’s got a solid mental make-up and typical three or four stuff. As long as he gives us 6 or 7 good innings, 12-15 wins, keeps the team in the game, and gives us an ERA under 4.25, I’ll be happy.
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First of all, I think the original post here was well-said. And a good reminder. Second, and this doesn’t change your larger point at all, I think you forgot to include Diekman in the signing bonuses after Round 10 for this past year.
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Marlon Byrd! God his career here seems like a life time ago. I always liked him.
I actually try and not read the name of the writer/scout of a particular article before I read the article itself, that way if I don’t like what it says or don’t agree with it, I wasn’t influenced by who wrote it.
Plus just look previous top 100 lists from other years and you’ll find players not even in the majors because they fell off in ability. Making a top 100 prospect list doesn’t cement your career 1 way or the other.
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The Rays also have a bunch of great prospects because they’re constantly picking first, or close to it.
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Yeah, but the Pirates are also always up there and they keep missing terribly. It still takes good scouting, and a bit a luck with injuries regardless of where a team is picking. Poor scouting/refusal to pay up has resulted in the Phillies losing on prospects like Rick Portcello and Phil Hughes who were available at the Phillies pick. Portcello especially bothers me because we had the money to spend after cutting some payroll (89 mil after being at 95 mil the year before) but once again decided to forego that opportunity and pick Savery. Hell, I hope Savery blows Portcello out of the water but the advance scouting almost uniformly said Portcello is a better bet. If we don’t busting slot to sign draft picks the gap between us and the Mets is going to get alot bigger because once the Mets start rolling in the dough from their new ballpark in 2009 they will be spending it.
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