I just wanted to address this, since it’s been mentioned a number of times in comments on various posts. When I post an excerpt of an article from BA, from Kevin Goldstein, from Keith Law, or from any other source, you need to remember 2 things before you even read the article. This is one person’s opinion, or in the case of BA, one site’s opinion. That’s it. It’s an opinion. You take time to learn about who is giving the opinion, and then you figure out how much importance it has to you. Keith Law has scouting experience, he goes and sees almost every player he writes about, and in most cases, he’s been seeing them play in person since they were in high school. He doesn’t have a “bias”, and he doesn’t “hate the Phillies”. These sites are not out to get the Phillies, they have no incentive to downgrade or upgrade Carlos Carrasco’s outlook. They are providing opinions. I like to think I follow the minors closely, but I don’t get to see Josh Outman pitch 30 times a season, and even if I did, I don’t have the extensive scouting background of some of these other guys, and I don’t have baselines for comparison to compare a guy like Josh Outman to a guy like Jake McGee. What I try to do here is post as much information as I can find, try to get as many opinions as I can, and then try and maybe find guys who might be ready to break out, based on their peripheral numbers. I have my gut feelings on certain guys, some of whom will be complete busts, and some of whom will break out. Every player who invests time into following the minors feels the same.
Daily Archives: January 31, 2008
Keith Law’s Top 100
As many of you know, I’m a big fan of Keith’s work, and for those latecomers to the party, Keith did a Q/A on Phillies prospects for the site here a few months ago. Check it out here. He doesn’t pull any punches, he speaks clearly, and more importantly, he backs up his comments with explanations, and was even kind enough to answer questions in the comments section here. Keith has released his rankings of top prospects by position, top 5 prospects by team, and then tomorrow, his Top 100 in the minors, all of which can be found here on his ESPN blog. With 97.3% of ESPN’s site being “Insider content”, you won’t get much, but his coverage, especially come draft time, kind of makes it worthwhile. Unsurprisingly, no Phillies prospects ranked in the top 5 at their respective positions. He’s not high on Cardenas at this point because he doesn’t really have a defensive home as of yet, and I’m sure Carrasco, Outman and Savery would be in the 10-20 range for RHP and LHP. His Top 5 for our team is Carrasco, Savery, Drabek, Outman and d’Arnaud.
Update: Keith ranks Carlos Carrasco #53
The Phillies’ system is not strong, and Carrasco is the one legitimate above-average prospect in it at the moment. Carrasco’s best attribute is his easy velocity, mostly 90-94 and touching 95 at times, with fringe-average command. His secondary stuff is a work in progress, with his short downer curveball ahead of his changeup, on which he slows his arm too much. Because his arm works well, it’s possible to project him as someone who’ll have three average pitches down the road, and he might pick up a few more miles an hour as he fills out or if he lengthens his stride a bit, all of which would make him a solid No. 3 starter in the majors.
From his ESPN Chat
Danny(Philly): Hey Keith I know your not a big fan of Cardenas because of a lack of position. Was he still close to making the list?
SportsNation Keith Law: (2:36 PM ET ) He wasn’t close, but he’s a guy I’m keeping an open mind on for 2008. If I see more with the bat and/or an improvement defensively, he’ll be on this list next year. Maybe he should have been, but I’m sticking with what I saw.
James (Roxboro, NC): Joe Savery and Kyle Drabek, simply not good enough for the top 100 or do injury history/concerns drop them?
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:35 PM ET ) Drabek is still out with TJ, and I think I only had two guys on my list in that situation, both in the 90s.
Kevin Goldstein’s Top 100
Another friend of the blog, Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus put out his Top 100 prospects list today. Carlos Carrasco checked in at #68, while Joe Savery slipped in at #96. You can check out the full list here, and you can ask Goldstein a question in his BP chat today at 1PM eastern.
JM (MD): Everyone seems down on Carlos Carrasco. The fact that he was only 20 last year and reached AA has to count for something, doesn’t it? Will his flaws be ironed out with more innings, or do you see his upside as being limited?
Kevin Goldstein: It does count for something, but so does his stuff and production. He just doesn’t miss a ton of bats, nor have to stuff to project as a big time star. Very good prospect, don’t get me wrong — But I think he’s a No. 3, borderline No. 2 in a perfect world.
Justin (Brno (Czech Republic)): How good will Adrian Cardenas be in the big leagues? Do you think his power will develop into a middle of the order type of bat?
Kevin Goldstein: I think he’ll be an above-average offensive second baseman, but I don’t see his power ceiling going past the 15-20 home runs a year range. Little guy, line-drive bat.
Phuture Phillies 