I’ve gotten a few e-mails asking if we couldn’t have provided a better package for Santana than the Mets came up with. In short, no, but it’s not just the prospects. Santana has a no trade clause, and the only way he’ll waive his NTC is if the team trading for him gives him an extension, probably in the 6 years/$150M range. The Phillies, I don’t believe, would even consider paying any player that much, let alone a pitcher. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, so obviously he’ll help the Mets, but I don’t think it’s panic time yet. Our 1-13 position players stack up and surpass those of the Mets, while they have a pitching advantage. That means it’s going to be a tight race for the East, and Atlanta should be decent, but is a clear third in terms of up and down talent on the 25 man roster. So, onto the prospects..
The big thing I wanted to discuss here is what the Mets gave up. Ultimately, Bill Smith (Twins GM) overplayed his hand. If the rumored packages that were floated around during the winter meetings, those involving Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, Phil Hughes, and others were actually available, then Smith made a big mistake. This is what the Mets gave up;
Carlos Gomez: Gomez is a speedy outfielder who draws comparisons to Jose Reyes. He struggled in his debut last year, not getting on base and hitting for almost no power. His profile is likely a .330 OB%, single digit home runs, and the potential for 50-65 SB. Mets fans think the power is coming, but he racked up only 18 HR and 62 doubles in 1,425 minor league plate appearances. He’s only 22, so he clearly could still develop into something special, and maybe I’m not as high on him as other outlets, but I don’t really see “star” here, in fact, I kind of see a rich man’s Endy Chavez.
Phil Humber: Humber was a much hyped prospect coming out of college, but by all accounts his stuff has dropped off, especially in 2007. Once pegged as a front of the rotation starter, he’s been downgraded to more of a #4/#5 starter, or possibly a 7th inning reliever. His fastball isn’t what it was in college, and more importantly, his secondary pitches haven’t really developed. He was very hittable last year in 3A, and allowed 21 home runs in 139 IP.
Kevin Mulvey: All things considered, I think Mulvey will end up being the best player in the deal for the Twins. He’s an unspectacular prospect in that he doesn’t have a 95 mph fastball, he doesn’t have a filthy slider or a bugs bunny changeup, he just has 3 good pitches and very good command. He kept the ball in the park in 2007, his first full season, even though he was a bit hittable. Unlike Humber, he doesn’t have extensive injury worries, and he has a simple, easy delivery.
Deolis Guerra: For those who follow the minors closely, Guerra is one of the most polarizing prospects in the game. Baseball America has long touted his abilities and predicted stardom for him. He made his debut in 2006 at age 17 in the SAL, posting a 2.20 ERA but with very pedestrian peripherals. The Mets kept him in High A for his age 18 season, and while he showed good command, his strikeout numbers didn’t improve, and he gave up 9 home runs in only 89 innings. His fastball was, from reports I’ve read, 88-91, which is what it was in the Futures Game last summer (if I remember correctly), and some say his changeup is great, while others say it’s average. His peripheral numbers are very pedestrian, but because of his ARL (age related to level) factor, people really rate him highly. Personally, I don’t buy it. I think he’s a classic case of a big market bias, and if he’d started out in another organization, say the Royals, no one would have been hyping him up to the level they did.
So essentially, that’s what the Mets gave up, and in addition to the talent they gave up, they are going to have to give Santana a record breaking contract. The Mets “win” this deal, in that they didn’t have to give up their best prospect, Fernando Martinez. But in my opinion, this is more about the Twins losing this poker hand. So, getting back to the main point, could the Phillies have done better? Well, the thing is, we don’t really have a player like Carlos Gomez. Golson has similar attributes, though he’s not as fast as Gomez, but has more power. Gomez already made it to the majors, and while he wasn’t exactly a hit, people still love his upside. If I were rating them on a 1-5 scale, with a 5 being the highest, Gomez is like a 3, Golson is like a 2, so there is a difference there. I’d equate Humber to a slightly better version of Drew Carpenter. Mulvey and Outman might end up having similar value on a major league roster. Guerra is the wildcard. Based on projections, you could say he’s similar to Carrasco, though the age is different, and where they are in their development is different. If you had to put together a package to compete with what the Mets gave and slightly edge them, maybe you give up Victorino + Carrasco + Carpenter + Outman. Would that be worth it? Maye, but when you factor in the $150M, I don’t think it is.
The Mets were the winners here, in that they acquired the best pitcher in baseball and didn’t give up their best prospect. But they did give up two of their possible starting pitcher replacements in the event (ie, when) Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez get hurt. They only have Mike Pelfrey as a likely replacement, and he looked completely lost last year. The Mets rotation is still filled with question marks. I mentioned Pedro’s injury problems, he’s their #2 right now. Oliver Perez ended up with nice numbers, but saw his ERA go from 3.14 before the break to 4.04 after. John Maine slots in at #4, and after coming out of the gates firing, his ERA also took a dive in the 2nd half, plummeting from 2.71 in the first haf to 5.53 in the 2nd half of the season. Santana upgrades the Mets rotation, but it shouldn’t force the Phillies into doing something silly, like overpaying for a #4 or #5 starter. Kyle Lohse remains a possibility, and a 2 year deal, maybe in the 17-20 million range, would be a nice move that wouldn’t require the trading of our scarce minor league assets.
We’ll see what happens. Mets fans will surely feel good about this, but being able to play the underdog card is always fun.
Phuture Phillies 
Wow, I saw this trade last night and I was shocked. I live in Red Sox / Yankees (people are evenly split here) and all I’ve heard is the incredible prospects these two would give up. I kept thinking the Sox and Yanks were giving up too much, even though Santana is the best pitcher in baseball. Then I read who the Mets gave up and I almost passed out. I agree that the money was the kicker here. To the Sox, Yanks and Mets I don’t think money is much of a concern. A while back on Philly.com discussion board I proposed a similar group of Philly prospects. I think instead of Outman I had Happ. My point was that Philly wouldn’t pay the money. It wasn’t the prospects… it’s the money.
The Mets just made a big jump. Is it enough? I think the Mets lack the killer instinct. Throwing Santana out there 30 to 32 times might make it so they don’t need to have it. If they can jump out early and stay consistent from there on, they’ll cruise in the NL East. The Phillies won’t go down without a fight. Atlanta won’t go gentle into that good night either. Remember the Mets have Pedro and when the goin’ gets rough, he folds.
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My overall view on this is that the Marlins know a lot more about what they are doing than the Twins do. There is no doubt that losing Miguel Cabrera was a huge deal (Willis less so since he was really a pretty bad pitcher last year), but the Marlins got a lot of really good prospects in return. If I’m a Twins fan, I would not be happy right now.
I don’t mind that the Phillies did not do this deal, but it is bothersome to know that the Mets are going to throw $150 million or so at Santana, in addition to the prospects and the Phillies are creating the appearance that they are going to try to get every extra dime out of Ryan Howard. How can that possibly be a good idea for the long-term health of the organization? If Ryan Howard plays as well as I expect him to play this year (60 homers not out of the question), do they think by screwing him on salary now, he’s going to be any easier to negotiate with next year or the year after? It’s just so short-sighted.
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maybe the twins really wanted him out of the AL, that could have been why they excepted a bit less from the mets…
to me any package with lester and ellsbury in it is better than the one the mets offered
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accepted
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Wow, I think as a Phillies fan I am really angry at Bill Smith. Still I kind of had a bad feeling this was going to happen. It seemed the Red Sox were only in it to stop the Yankees and the Yanks GM is in love with his youn garms that he feels they don’t need Santana. The Mets were handed Santana on a silver plate.
Still they lose some depth but what made me really think this could happen was the fact they have 3 picks in the first 33 slots. They could easily replace some of their lost talent from this trade in this upcoming draft. I am a little worried but as long as Wagner keeps throwing it to the one spot Burrell can hit it, I think we’ll be fine.
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The Phillies are not trying to squeeze every dime out of Ryan Howard. 7 mil for the first year of arbitration is unheard of (only Miguel Cabrera got more, 7.4 mil, and he didn’t bat .268 and lead the league in Ks). RyHo (or his father or agent or whatever) wants A-Rod money, which is ridiculous. The Phillies are offering Pujols money or a little more. The fact that RyHo wants more is on him.
As for the trade, yea the Mets won this deal easily, but I don’t think it’s enough to push the Mets over the edge.
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Also of note, Billy Beane got a far better package for Dan Haren, though he did have more leverage than Smith here. Maybe he moved quickly with Haren because he was afraid the bottom would fall out of the Santana market and Bedard wouldn’t end up getting traded.
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I doubt it. But we can get Bedard for Howard. It would make the Phils better.
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The lack of effort on the Phillies part to land and ace says so much about them as an organization.
It may be that Santana would have nixed any deal to Philly, but couldn’t we have at least made the Mets cough up more talent by raising the stakes? Isn’t that the game the Yankees and Red Sox were forced to play? How passive can you get when a player of Santana’s caliber becomes available and courts your arch-rival?
If Phillies Brass used the logic that we already have a lefty ace who throws change-ups, well, that’s stupid. If some is good, more is better, and if a team can’t handle Johan, they won’t be able to handle Cole, either.
If they used the logic that giving up prospects would be too painful, they should have resolved to restock quickly by signing over slot. A window is open here with the young stars playing at relatively low salaries. What are they waiting for?
If they used the logic that $150 Million over 6 years is too much for one player, they clearly don’t understand the value of an ace. Every player is an injury risk. Cole and Brett are more of an injury risk than Johan. And even if Santana does miss a year rehabbing, he should have several great years left over the next 6 seasons.
Adding insult to injury is the Phillies lack of effort to land Dontrelle Willis, Dan Haren, or Erik Bedard.
Obviously the Phillies think they can win a title without a Big Three in the rotation. They are wrong. Santana was exactly the piece they needed.
If they used the login that signing Santana would have meant letting Ryan Howard go in a few years, consider that he might leave anyway to the AL where he’ll get paid more and can DH.
Think of the day Greg Maddux was acquired by the Braves.
Yesterday was a similarly awful day for the Phillies and their fans.
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Ducky, I have to beg to differ with you on most aspects of the Ryan Howard issue.
There is a reason that you do not hear about the Red Sox, Dodgers, Rockies, Cardinals, Mets and others become particlarly contentious with their young stars. They work very hard to keep their young stars happy and in the fold. They understand that, in a world where Wes Helms gets $2 million a year and Adam Eaton gets $8 million a year, it is just god awful stupid to come to blows with a young superstar over what, really, is not a lot of money in the baseball world, especially when you are working to encourage the player to sign a long term deal. And, please, I hope you do not make the “small market argument” – this is the fifth largest metro area in the country and fans are flocking to the park in record numbers. They’ve got cash to burn.
Salaries have also escalated enormously since Albert Pujols was paid $7 million. I would bet that, if you did the math, the percentage increase in the salaries of top flight major league players over the last four years would easily dictate a $10 million salary or something in that vicinity. Honestly, I think Howard will win his case, but, even if he loses, is the bad feeling engendered by the victory worth the money saved? I can’t imagine how it would be.
Finally, one should not be naive enough to think that the other players on the team (Cole Hamels) and throughout baseball are not aware of how the team deals with its biggest star. That reputation can have a pretty big ripple effect when it comes to signing or re-signing other players or asking players to waive a no-trade clause.
At some level, however, I hear what is being said. Yes, if Ryan Howard steadfastly refuses to negotiate a long-term deal that will cover the next four to six years unless he gets A-Rod money, then, maybe there is nothing to be done. However, if you think the team should try to keep Howard (and I certainly do) and it’s possible that he could stay, then I think they are smart not to become unnecessarily confrontational with him.
Ultimately, it seems to me that by 2010, if they can’t sign Howard, the Phillies are going to have to take a hard look at trading him to make sure we don’t have another Curt Schilling or Scott Rolen disaster. The very thought is deflating to me because I not only watch baseball to see my team win, I, like many fans, enjoy a great show. Ryan Howard puts on quite a show.
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Teams always say they make decisions regardless of the competition, but rather, always with an eye to make their team better. But it just isn’t true. The goal is to get to the playoffs, and once you’re there, to take your chances. To get to the playoffs only means you have to be better than your division competition. Winning 110 games (and paying to win 110) when you’re competition only wins 90 is a waste of resources (obviously significant caveats apply).
This is bad in the short term. The Mets just replaced an unnamed fringy 5th starter with the best pitcher in the league, and gave up nothing from their ML team. That could quite literally be worth 7 or 8 wins over the course of the season. If we were all saying they were a 88-92 win team prior to this (and I think we all agree they were), they are now a 95+ win team.
Thus, the Phillies can no longer be satisified with winning 90 games because they know that won’t be good enough. The competition is better than that and that will necessarily raise the bar for the Phillies. The cynic says the phillies payroll will stay the same, that nothing will change. Maybe. But I think you’ll see the phillies respond. Maybe not in the short term, but I guarantee their is more pressure in the FO to find wins even if it costs some money. This could mean trade deadline, it could mean next offseason (let’s hope not). But I doubt the Phillies will accept 2nd place long term.
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Your analysis of the deal encapsulates my thoughts exactly, James. Smith definitely overplayed his hand here; in reality, he probably would have been better off getting Hughes straight up than the package the Mets offered.
The particularly frustrating thing about this is twfold: (1) the Mets didn’t have to give up Martinez, Pelfrey, or anyone from their major league roster; and (2) they will undoubtedly restock quickly by busting slot in this summer’s draft. The latter is something the Phillies have not done consistently, and it’s while they’ll lag behind the Mets in terms of being able to make trades like this.
As far as the packages the Phillies could potentially have offered… forget about it. Mets prospects are way overhyped, and consequently they’re able to get a lot more for them. Even if that trio isn’t necessarily that much better than a Golson, Outman, Carpenter and Carrasco, people think they are, and that goes a long way. Congrats to Omar Minaya for making a great deal… but hopefully this will wake up the Phils’ management and ownership and make them realize that incremental improvements just won’t cut it.
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Will: I appreciate your optimism. I’ll respond to this:
“Winning 110 games (and paying to win 110) when you’re competition only wins 90 is a waste of resources (obviously significant caveats apply).”
This logic requires hindsight, as far as knowing win totals ahead of time. You can speculate about win totals, but to play down to your assumptions usually isn’t a winning strategy in any sport.
The way to win is beat everybody’s brains in as often as you can, by as wide a margin as you can, especially the teams in your own division. If that means winning 110 games, so be it. Anyone that complains we overshot by 10 wins will be ridiculed.
In baseball, you win titles by assembling a Big Three, a cleanup hitter and a 3-hole hitter and surrounding them with as much talent as you can afford after that. If your competition trumps you in these top 5 spots, you’re going to have an uphill battle no matter what your payroll is for the final 35 spots.
The Phillies had a hole at the top before the Mets made this deal. They should have been more aggressive in their pursuit for an ace regardless.
Besides, the Mets pursuit of Santana was hardly a secret. This was a slow moving train that hit the Phillies, not a bolt from the blue. They won’t scramble to do anything now any more than they did before.
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could they have gotten him is different then do they want to pay for him. the answer to the first question is absolutely. michael bourn sounds a lot like your description of gomez. wouldn’t it look nicer to have meyers our closer and santana our ace then the current situation? we could have also given cardenas as well as savory to your package above and blown it away. so i agree with you…it is about the money, not the prospects. and that just sucks! this is why the phillies go 15 years in between playoffs. i hope everyone enjoyed our 3 games against the rockies this year. won’t happen again for a while.
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xfactor, I don’t mean to be overly optimistic. I’m just thinking like any business operator would. In the end it doesn’t matter if you win by 25 games or by 1/2 a game. And why plan to try to win by 25 if the bottom line (for your business) is that you don’t have to? I mean, and as I said, there are certainly caveats, but all things being equal, you win by as little as possible because in the end, that gets you the what you want for the least cost.
Aand my optimism is sprung from a belief (hope) that the Phillies have recognized that they do make more money by fielding a contending team
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Will: Mr. Montgomery, is that you?
You plan to win by 25 games so that when the moon and stars don’t align for you, you end up squeaking in by one game. Same reason you continue to score runs with a 10 run lead.
Contention is great, don’t get me wrong. Pirates fans aspire to our brand of falling short. But let’s win it all for a change, okay? While we have the talent to really make a push.
Besides, I’m not calling on anyone to spend Yankee dollars on the whole roster, but you have to pay a premium for premium talent. Spend like the Yankees on your top three starters and the #3 and #4 hitters, and spend like the Pirates on the rest of the roster. You’ll still contend and you might even spend less overall. Concentrate your spending where it matters most.
Meanwhile, Howard and Utley, Myers and Hamels are three fourths of the answer at the top. They aren’t overly expensive, either. Now would have been the time to seal the deal with Santana. Or Bedard. Or Haren.
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Meant to say four-fifths of the top 5 is set with Hamels, Myers, Howard, and Utley. These guys match up with anyone else in either league. Another ace would have a tremendous ripple effect on the entire pitching staff and put the Phillies into the elite class of teams.
It’s a long season and anything can happen. This Phillies team is as exciting as any in recent memory and I’m sure the Phillies will rake it in at the gate. Can’t wait to get started. The Mets have their holes, too.
Game On!
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