I hate to post this, because it seems like we’ve debated this to death, but I guess it’s worth a look. From a Jim Callis chat at BA yesterday
Mike (Lancaster, PA): Can Cardenas play third?
Jim Callis: Yeah, he should be able to.
Hmm. Most people generally think Cardenas doesn’t have the arm for 3B. It’s not a secret that the best athletes on high school teams normally play shortstop. Lots of guys get drafted as shortstops (like Cardenas) and then get moved off the position immediately in pro ball. The Reds drafted Todd Frazier as a shortstop out of Rutgers and immediately moved him to 3B. It’s a common practice. But the guys who get moved to 3B normally go there because they have strong arms. If they can’t make it at 3B because of poor hands or reactions, they usually end up in RF, again because of their arm. If the arm isn’t good enough, they go to LF, for obvious reasons. All the talk about Cardenas has been that he might end up in LF, which seems to indicate that the Phillies don’t think much of his arm. Or could it be that they thought 2B would be easier for him to adjust to while he was also adjusting to pro pitching for the first time? He held his own at Lakewood as a 19 year old, and will move to Clearwater at age 20. Did anyone see him at Instructs taking balls at 3B? Will the Phillies gamble and try him there at Clearwater? We have no other legit 3B prospects in High A that would be blocking him.
Jim Callis is far from the trumping voice on Phillies prospects, but this could be an interesting plotline to watch.
Phuture Phillies 
Cardenas is the Phillies IF prospect with by far the most offensive upside. He is blocked at 2B by Utley and we have other good minor league IF (Harman, Donald) who can play 2B and are ahead of him in development. We have absolutely zilch ahead of him in the majors or minors at 3B. If the Phillies thought he could play 3B, I can’t believe they wouldn’t have put him there last season.
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If ANYBODY thinks Cardenas can play third, put him there. As allentown stated, there’s absolutely nobody to supplant him at third base ANYWHERE along the Phillies’ minor league chain. I’d love to see him as the third baseman of the future for this team.
A move nobody’s talking about is Cardenas switching to first base. Who knows? When I look at Ryan Howard, I see Mo Vaughn, Travis Hafner, Cecil Fielder, Prince Fielder, and Boog Powell. I could very easily see him breaking down with injuries, especially to the knees and hips, from the weight he has to carry. Could Cardenas’ bat play at first base?
In order of likelihood, with reasoning, here’s what I envision for Adrian.
1. Trade bait – Second base might be the best spot for him, but unless Utley moves to first and Howard gets traded to an AL team, Cardenas is blocked pretty much wherever he could play in the infield. Another team would love to get a player like Cardenas, and just might give up a solid major-leaguer or major-league ready minor leaguer, possibly a third baseman, for him.
2. Left Fielder – As James stated above, those with the weakest arms generally play left field. The Phils obviously don’t think a whole lot of his arm if he hasn’t played any third yet. I think we might see Cardenas take over Pat Burrell’s old spot a couple years after Pat walks via free agency — and by the way, I was with a friend whose father is friends with one of Pat Burrell’s ex-teammates from Miami, and this guy seems to think that if Pat could focus on baseball only, he’d be a lock for Cooperstown.
3. Third Baseman – You never know what something’s like until you try it. The Phillies might have to ultimately bite the bullet and put Cardenas at third and see what he can do. Who knows? He could floor them and field a solid third base, which is where I believe his bat may play best in the majors. I’m not sure his bat will do well enough for a left fielder, but I definitely think it’d play nicely at third or second.
4. Second Baseman – I don’t see Utley getting traded or switching positions, but I’ve read either here or on Beerleaguer (I forget which) that Utley might be willing to change positions for the good of the team. It makes sense, because Chase is a total team player and would definitely do what’s best for the club.
5. First Baseman – I don’t know, and I hope I never have to find out, if Ryan Howard will really get hurt due to his big frame. He’s a key part of the Phillies offense and organization, and it would really be a shame to see him go down. Maybe Utley would prefer to stay at second, and by that time Cardenas would be ready for the majors. Cardenas might step up and man first beautifully.
Really, there are tons of different possibilities, but one thing’s for sure: the Adrian Cardenas issue will continue to hotly debated among stat-heads and minor-league baseball enthusiasts until his call up to the show.
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From a March 23, 2006 Ask BA session:
Which of the top draft prospects are being advised by Scott Boras? If your favorite team is picking early, like mine (the Pirates) is at No. 4 overall, this can be a deal-breaker in determining their choice.
Wilbur Miller
Silver Spring, Md.
We’ve confirmed that Boras is advising eight prospects for the 2006 draft, all college players. In order of how they ranked on our initial College Top 100 Prospects list , they are: Missouri righthander Max Scherzer (No. 3), Southern California righty Ian Kennedy (No. 5), Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta (No. 7), Arizona shortstop Jason Donald (No. 17)
It’s pretty interesting that Donald was ranked as the 17th best college prospect. It sort of renews my faith that his past season wasn’t a fluke.
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Phils may have taken their first look at Cardenas for 3B with a purist’s mindset. Yes, he does not have a cannon arm and will not gun out fast runners after diving catches at the LF line.
But David Bell is an example of a guy who survived at 3B (when healthy) with an average arm. If Bell had not had the bad back to limit his agility, quickness and throwing motion, and hit 18 HRs with 80 RBIs each year of his contract, the complaints would have been mininmal and not focused on the arm but on whether even the healthy offensive production was enough.
Let’s say Cardenas has Bell’s avg arm (he has played SS, so that’s a reasonable assumption). With his athleticism, barrell chest (being a bear of a guy is an advantage at 3B, where physical confidence and ability to stop the ball help a lot), and SS experience, the switch, to me, is worth a try, given the need.
My guess is that the switch will depend far less on his ability to gun the ball waist-high than on his ability to react quickly and be sure-handed on hard-hit balls.
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Rob: some good comments on the Cardenas possibilities, I think. The one thing he has going for him is he started as a SS so he has some skills and athleticism. He is no one-way player like a Mat Gamel or Wes Helms. I suspect that he could learn 4 or 5 different positions anywhere from adequately to pretty good.
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One possibility that I rarely see mentioned is by the time Cardenas is ready, Utley may have lost a step as a 2B. Obviously you want to keep Utley at 2B as long as possible because he is so much better than anyone else at the position. However there is no question Utley’s bat would play in LF. If Cardenas reaches his offensive potential and ends up being a better defensive 2B than Utley as well, what is the difference between Utley in LF and Cardenas at 2B as opposed to vice versa? It’s basically 6 in one hand and half a dozen in the other.
Of course it’s all a moot point if Cardenas is able to move over to 3B. If David Bell and Wes Helms had/has the arm to play the hot corner, Cardenas would really have to have a noodle arm to not be on par or better than either of those guys.
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Before anybody suggests it, Utley can’t play 3B. It’s been tried, it failed miserably.
That being said, there are rumors starting to float around that Howard wants more than the Phils are willing to give and will be gone after his time under Phils’ control is up. It would be right around the time Cardenas should be ready. Utley could move to 1B (he’s got the bat to play there) and Cardenas could play 2B. I still think the most likely outcome is a trade.
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Sadly Cardenas is much less a fielder than Utley who could not play 3B. It has already been questioned if he can stick at 2B in the Majors. He is seen as marginal and fringey at 2B at the moment.
He may end up being a great trade chip, or move right on the defense spectrum: 2B, RF, LF, 1B.
Until we have a solid 3B man, every winter we will see these silly speculations, (Iguchi would not have been solid at 3B), “can Pat Burrell slide in at 3B? he played it in college.”
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Burrell was moved off 3rd because Rolen was already there. I know he can’t go back there now. I have a feeling that Helms and Dobbs can handle 3rd this year (it’s a queasy feeling though). I’d try Cardenas at 3rd. He’s in a good spot in the minors to try it. I’d make sure that it doesn’t mess with his head. Make sure he remembers that the bat is his friend.
Ironic isn’t it that the Phillies have had some darn good 3rd baseman since I’ve been around: Richie Allen, Schmidt, Don Money (for a short time), Scott Rolen and I liked Placido Polanco a lot too. Philly’s known for their 3rd baseman. And yet we’ve gone a bunch of years with mediocrity. Let’s get our 3rd base swagger back. Where’s the vaccuum cleaner that make the best pitchers sweat?
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Sadly if Cardenas is marginal at 2B, he will not be able to play 3B at the Major League Level. But Certainly worth a try if the minor league staff believe it is possible.
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…before well all get so excited that just seems like such an ‘off the cuff’ comment I wouldn’t put much stock in it.
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Of course that’s all it was. But it’s the first time I’ve seen it mentioned by someone who makes a living reporting on the evaluation of minor league talent, so it’s worth at least considering.
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Given his current defensive ability it is easy to forget that when he started with the Phillies, there was significant doubt whether Utley could handle 2B defensively. Is Cardenas really marginal at 2B?
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Richie Allen was as good a hitter as I’ve ever seen, but he was a lousy defensive 3B.
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Last year the Yanks got Wilson Betemit to replace A-rod if he left. I know he was a top prospect a couple years ago. He’s a swith hitter with a decent glove at least. With A-rod signed long term, why not consider trading for Betemit. He would probably be the least costly young 3rd baseman we could get at a reasonable price. Is betemit still considered a prospect?
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I like Betemit also as a low cost target. Kind of like Ricky Ledee, he could polish his offense a little late and be a productive starter for a few years.
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Before you attack this notion, remember I’m not advocating it; its just a thought…
Adrian Cardenas is 9 years younger than both Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins. Assuming he takes another 3-4 years to make the big leagues, Cardenas probably wouldn’t crack the starting lineup until opening day 2012. By then, both our middle infielders will be in their mid 30s. I don’t think this is an overly conservative projection: Cardenas will start the 2008 season at the high A level, for an organization slow to promote position players.
By the time Adrian becomes a permanent fixture, our current nucleus could be in decline, playing for other teams, hobbled by a major injury or ready to move to a less demanding position. Every MLB roster undergoes significant changes over a 5 year span; I think lower level prospects should concentrate on their personal development without worrying about wher they fit on the big league club.
Five years ago, Chase Utley was moved to third base to make room for newly acquired Placido Polanco. The experiment clearly stalled Utley’s progress: after his double jump from Clearwater to Wilkes-Barres, Utley wasted 2 1/2 years in AAA. The Phillies thought Utley lacked range for 2B…sounds familiar? I think scouts just couldn’t believe that a second baseman could hit like that…
So what would I do with Cardenas? I’d leave him in the middle infield, where he has the most value. Our productive middle infield is already our greatest strength- lets make it a tradition.
If Cardenas can handle short, Rollins can play out the remainder of his career at 3B or the outfield. If Cardenas stays at second, Utley can move to LF or 1B. Those guys would need to change positions within a couple years, regardless of their replacements. By moving your older middle infielders, you extend their careers, and “keep their bat in the lineup”.
Even if Cardenas is eventually traded; a slugging middle infielder is worth much more than a decent bat in LF. If he keeps hitting and stays at 2B, he’ll crack the next top 50 prospect list. If moves to LF, he’ll lack power for the position.
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First, Burrell was moved off of third base because he couldn’t REMOTELY play it. He stood at 3B for Miami and watched balls bounce by, then more than made up for his fielding with his bat. Not aq single team thought he could play there.
Second, Chris Kline did a prospect podcast for the Reading Phillies website (it’s still there as of Saturday) and said that Cardenas has a plus arm for second base. Second professional minor league writer to compliment his arm lately. Hmmm…
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I saw that too, PC, and it supports my contention that his arm shgould be adequate for 3b–maybe similar to Davvid Bell, arm-wise.
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