Yesterday we looked at the catcher position, one of relative strength for the Phillies, and today we look at a position of relative weakness, first base. In general, you don’t see as many true 1B prospects, because it’s basically the last stop on the defensive spectrum, and guys who start out at 1B need to have exceptional offensive capabilities to really be considered upper echelon prospects. Nevertheless, we’ll need to rank our guys. We can try to come up with 5 guys here, but 3 might better serve our purposes. I’ve added a link on the top bar of the page to the depth chart page. I might tinker with the layout, but it will serve the purpose for now.
Guys to consider; Charlie Yarbrough (23), Doug Morales (21), Matt Rizzotti (22), Michael Durant (22), Karl Bolt (22), Francisco Murillo (21)
Phuture Phillies 
Other than Michael Durant and Yarrough, I hardly know anything about these prospects. I would say there seem to be no Ryan Howards there, no obvious sluggers who are dominating minor league pitching right from the get-go. Looks bleak. If Howard were injured in the next few years, we might have to move Utley over and play one of our outstanding to decent 2B prospects, like Cardenas, Donald, or Harman, depending on who is hitting and which one looks like they can hold down the position respectably. Ain’t none of the guys on the list who looks like he will be ready provide 1B insurance 3 years from now.
I await comments from the MiLB gurus on any of these guys who might be diamonds in the rough.
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not to piss on the parade, but ranking prospects against each other is really a meaningless exercise. we can rank these bloggers against each other in terms of potential to make it to the bigs, but that doesn’t mean that our #1 ranked blogger will ever play first base in the show. it is really only significant if we discuss a prospect’s abilities relative to major league requirements
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I don’t see any of these guys having even a 20% chance of becoming a major league first baseman. My favorites are Rizzotto, Durant, Murillo.
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I’d give Clay Harris a shot at Reading if he is still around. He hit .301 after the All Star break in the FSL. After that not much to select from. Rizziotti and Bolt seem to know how to play since they are college guys but the rest are either waiver wire material or better be late bloomers.
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Bolt, Rizzotti, Durant, Murillo, Morales, Yarbrough
I like the first 4, Bolt from the U.S. Air Force Academy, Rizzotti looks like Babe Ruth, Durant has the frame and is from Oakland like Jimmy Rollins, and Murillo just came to the states from Venezula. All are right handed except for ‘Da Babe.
2007 Gulf Coast League
Karl Bolt (22) OPS .795
Francisco Murillo (21) OPS .733
2007 Williamsport
Matt Rizzotti (22) OPS .761
Michael Durant (22) OPS .666
2007 Clearwater
Doug Morales (21) OPS .611
Charlie Yarbrough (23) OPS .596
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Durant is now 21 and was drafted out of High School for his great power.
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PP Fan, if this is pointless, how about I turn the reigns of this blog over to you, and we can churn out better content?
An exercise like this has limitations, but I think it’s interesting to look at prospects compared to others at the position. It helps to show the gap in quality from one spot to another, and shows just how strong/weak a particular position is.
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PhPh,
It’s certainly not pointless. This is what some of live for at least in the off-season. You’re doing a great job. Carry on.
Bolt/Yarbrough/Murrillo/Morales/Rizotti
Bolt’s got 8 months (out of 2 years)done on his military commitment, and from what I hear through a nephew, the guy trains like Ivan Drago. Don’t know if he’ll be at ST, or what the next year+ will bring in the way of duty (I hear he is with the AF in Tampa), but looking at his college numbers in a tough league and his leadership/discipline training, I think we will be reading his name a lot.
Murillo is a player, but is somewhat out of a position. Not really tall enough for 1B or quick enough, he played mostly OF in GCL. But he hits the ball very hard.
Rizotti has never really been tested. Unimpressive in Williamsport this past season, and college at Manhattan College? What’s that? But his shere presence is impressive. He’s definitely one of those “fits the profile” guys. Again, not very quick at 1B. Might make a better OF. When he hits, the ball looks like it hurts.
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Nothing about this is pointless, at worst, it is interesting, idle speculation. But I agree that it shows the relative strengths and weakensses at each position. Having said that, good god are we thin at this position at the higher levels. I think this is why you see guys like Valentino Pascucci signed for ST – if Howard goes down we need a serviceable replacement. I really don’t want to see someone like Tomas Perez playing first again. That’s just a disaster.
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Mike Cervenak could surprise everyone with a monster Spring Training. Let’s not leave him off the list. He’s 31 and last season he led the International League in hits. At AAA Norfolk, he hit .283 with 15 home runs and 78 RBI. He’s a welcome addition to camp.
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Rizotti,Bolt,Murrillo,Morales,Durant
I’d move Bolt #1 when he is able to be a full time ballplayer.
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First base is one of those places where journeymen hang around the longest (other than left handed pitchers). Good hitters always tend to have jobs and without a DH situation they end up on first. We’re not talking Keith Hernandez skills here for the most part. The Phillies’ current crop doesn’t appear to have any outstanding prospects but a few of them (Rizzotti, Bolt, and Murillo) might surprise. I’ve always wondered if Jeremy Slayden wouldn’t be better suited as a 1B rather than OF and Ken Milner is a very large outfielder who could find his way to 1B if his power improves as I think it will.
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Rizzotti has the most potential of this group. He had decent college numbers, albeit at a small school, but he has big time raw power. His problem is contact, and doing it against advanced competition.
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I’d rank as follows
1. Murillo — .773 OPS first year in US
2. Rizzotti — showed good walk rate and doubles power in SS
3. Durant — Lots of power potential. Still only 21.
Interesting thing is all 3 could be at Lakewood this year.
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Not to be argumentative, I’d really like to hear folk’s explanation on ranking Bolt so highly. I see many of the arguments given as positives as actually indicators that he has little improvement potential. People say he is in superb physical shape, is a workout/practice demon, played in a well-coached major college program for 4 years and understands the game well. To me, that says he likely has already reached his potential and professional coaching and nutrition/weight training are unlikely to have nearly the same impact as with a guy like Murillo who just came to the US. Couple that with the facts that he was very old for GCL and is likely to miss the whole 2008 season, and I don’t see a path to success. For a guy with his age and experience to hit just a little under .800 OPS in GCL does not seem encouraging for a 1B.
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Personally, I don’t see how you can make an real determinations about Bolt one way or the other. He has one partial season of professional experience under his belt and I understand he has some military commitment left. He is said to be well-conditioned and smart. I don’t see how that limits his upside. If he had played at a baseball school where he could focus much of his efforts on playing ball maybe you could argue that he’s had a chance to develop, but hasn’t. However, the guy was at a service academy where, I imagine, playing baseball was just one of the many things he did, and he was generally focused on more important things, like learning how to protect our country, getting good grades on little sleep, and engaging in extended military drills and exercises. Maybe someone who reads this post and went to a service academy can comment on this, but, given where he has been and what he has had to do, I don’t think it’s fair to say that he’s likely hit his peak as a baseball player. If anything, I think what he’s had to do has probably impeded his progress on the field.
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I went down to the GCL and saw Bolt play a couple days in a row. I actually got to hang out with him and his dad. He is a pure masher but he can handle the bat. The ball just made a different sound when he put it in play. I just don’t know how much the layoff will set him back, and he will be old not having played above GCL. That being said, if he gets back into baseball full bore, because he has such good work ethic and make up, he could move quickly through the system, and be a late blooming MLB player. All that said, I agree with Allentown in that I can’t rank him high, just because there is too much unknown at this time.
I say Rizzotti, Murillo, Bolt, Durant.
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I had the same thought as Atown about Bolt. If he is in such good shape why hasn’t he blistered all of the low minors pitching he has seen. He should have hit .400/10 HR in GCL (exaggerating). That said, Catch 22 makes some potentially good points that are not verified. Maybe the academy life impedes sports development. It’s one thing to be well conditioned. It’s another to develop pro level skills.
He is what he is. A guy with a great physique, power and some athletic ability, who must prove he can perform at a superior level in his first year or two, or he will likely go down as a bust. Someone to watch, that’s for sure.
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Out of 285 D1 schools in America, Air Force was ranked #285 last year and have never been above 250 in the past four years. The Coach there is considered the worst coach in college baseball. And through this, as well as through what Catch 22 stated about an Academy experience, Bolt was a four year starter with a career OPS of something like 1.25. Mountain West includes TCU, San Diego State, BYU, UNLV and he has beaten up on kids like Arrietta, Shoemaker, and even Samarja (ND) at the plate. Plus the fact that Academy kids don’t play summer wood bat ball as they are doing military assignments worldwide during that time. So I think he is a long ways from his pinnacle in baseball performance.
This kid is smart. He is very disciplined. His HS travel team was #1 in the country at U18. He is a player from everything I have read. There must be some reason the AF has transferred his assignment to Tampa. Allentown, I would like to know if you have ever seen him play, because Xogfog and Squire both gave him high marks after seeing him first hand, and you have downgraded him on numerous occasions.
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I think he’s been downgraded simply because no one really knows when he’s going to be able to focus on baseball full time. If that happens at age 24 or 25, he’s probably lots his window to be a regular MLB player. He’d have lost the development time, and he’d struggle to make it. I’m not ruling him out, but he’s a longshot, and pinning our hopes on him being a big league 1B out of poor pool of candidates probably is slightly foolish. If he’s able to play pro ball in some capacity this summer, then that would obviously be a big help.
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No, I have not seen Bolt play.
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Forgot you can’t edit here. To Alex —
Squire has posted his top 50 prospects on Philliesphans and his 1B ratings, none rated very highly, has Murillo first at prospect #38, followed by Rizotti and Durant.
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Squire,
Your thoughts? As Xogfog asked in Philliesphan, did you leave Bolt out due to the military commitment uncertainty? Does anyone know if he is scheduled for ST?
I was at FIL and Murillo wasn’t invited, Durant didn’t play much, and Bolt, in my opinion, outplayed Rizotti (who played more OF than 1B).
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Bolt’s a hitter. Murillo can’t hit a curveball.
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If someone here knows SQUIRE, could you please tell him to drop me an e-mail.
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I’ve seen the Bolt kid play in college. The MWC would not pitch to him as he was the only threat on the AF team. He hit 2 jacks against SDSU (Tony Gwynn Stadium) in one game, both on curve balls, against top pitching. Schlossnagel (TCU) intentionally walked him 4 times in one game. This kid got no coaching in college, no summer play, is a young 22 (a year ahead in school), won Physical Training Awards at AF (against all athletes) and was MVP 2 years. The regimine at AF does not lend itself to “getting ready for the pros”. That’s not why they are there. But look at the success of AF’s football team (last week’s bowl game) and last year’s nationally ranked BB program. Too small, too short, too slow. It shows that intelligence and determination can make up for a lot of other shortcomings. Plus they do teach them how to train.
And this kid CAN HIT.
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I’d say Matt Rizzotti, Karl Bolt, Michael Durant, Francisco Murillo, Charlie Yarbrough, Doug Morales.
Rizzotti and Bolt are pretty close in my mind in terms of overall potential, with Rizzotti getting the nod over Bolt because Bolt has a military commitment and could lose development time. Durant’s third because he’s still young with lots of power potential, but hasn’t done much with it yet. Murillo obviously needs more seasoning, and Yarbrough and Morales look like organizational filler.
Thank goodness our middle infield prospects are the strength of our farm system. If Howard goes down, Utley would slide over to first and perhaps a call-up would be in line for whichever middle infield prospect the organization feels can hold his own.
It’s too bad we don’t have Sandoval anymore…
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Found the following article when I Googled Karl Bolt. Seems pertinent:
http://www.lvrj.com/sports/7606772.html
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Found this under Google also, from Perfect Game:
http://www.perfectgame.org/stories/07_03_29_banner_year_at_the_service_academies/
Not sure it answers any of the comitment issues though.
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My son and I watch 25-30 GCL ,10-15 extended spring and and another 6-8 FIL games a year. I’ve seen Yarbrough, Durant, Bolt and Murillo play extensively. Yarbrough, is a lumber jack. Durant is a diamond in the rough. Looks like a RH Howard but lacks plate dicipline. Phillies are pushing Murillo into the OF. Bolt could be the real deal. The guy can rake, period. But, what nobody mentioned is that he is a better than average fielder. He’s fluid and has quick feet. He knows what he wants and seems focused on succeeding. His dad said he was offered the opportunity to be a fighter pilot. But, he declined so he could play with the Phillies.
I rank ’em: Bolt, Durant, Slayden , Yarbrough, Rizzotti, Murrillo
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Sounds like Bolt is someone to watch since he appears to be similar in size to Ryan Howard. He and Howard started in the short season leagues about the same age with Ryan a few months younger. Howard at Batavia in NY-Penn in 01 and Bolt in the GCL in 07. Comparing their SS seasons Bolt hit 8 homers in 57 games to Howard’s 6 in 48 games. Bolt had a higher SLG % at .459 compared to Howard’s .456. But Howard had a higher OPS of .384 to Bolt’s .336.
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The biggest difference is starting in the NYP league as Howard did vs starting in the GCL. The NYP is a much tougher league with older and more experienced players.
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If Bolt went to Batavia where most 22 year old college seniors go, I can see him struggling to hit as much as Durant (or more so) did. Would people still be mentioning his name so much? At best he turns out to be Jack Cust-light and maybe in his early 30’s makes it onto a roster some day. I just think its a more reasonable outlook for the guy.
I saw Rizzoto- he was a bit more polished as a hitter then I expected, but for all the power, his bat speed doesn’t seem much more than average.
Durant has better bat speed and more power, but as far as recognizing pitches and staying balanced, his skills are best used in BP at this point.
Yarbough- just a big guy who doesn’t look all that good as a hitter- slow bat, and you’d expect power, but it never seems to come.
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RB’s comparison is intriguing, but for once I find myself agreeing with A’town. But, I’m not sure that the Phillies had much choice in putting Bolt in the GCL. Rizotti was a significantly higher Draft pick and I’m not sure what they paid for that. Durant, even though he has been around for 2-3 years, went for $250K, and the Phillies need to protect that investment. To keep him in GCL and not test him at a higher level is not sound mgmnt. I’m sure Bolt would have been much happier playing in Wmsport, but not if he had to share time with 2 other guys. I think in this case, reps were the better choice, for the Phillies and for Bolt.
For all any of us knows, maybe he had to be kept in FL for his military purposes. The bit that M Bob states above about 8 months of his deal already done was published in a blog somewhere, and that would indicate his being near Tampa where he is assigned (just a guess)?
Interestingly, the recap in Citizens Blog about all the farm teams is becoming much more interesting and is almost reference material.
http://philliesblog.blogspot.com/2007/10/2007-farm-report-part-i-gcl.html
And a note to PhuturePhillies. The comment above by PP Fan is rendered totally irrelevant about the value of what you are trying to do here. If today’s discussion was not considered “of value”, and even entertaining, then you’re not interested in the Phillies Pharm System. Can’t wait for the middle IFers discussion. Your viewer base must be hitting some very interesting numbers by now. Can you capture those stats?
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I get anywhere between 1500-2500 hits a day on a normal day. When something big happens, it spikes up because I’m one of the first google search results for most any phillies prospect query. On Day 1 and 2 of the draft in June it was over 6000 each day. Almost 23,000 hits since I mentioned crossing half a million back on December 20th. It seems like people keep showing up, even though it’s the dead of winter and there isn’t a whole lot of prospect news.
I really do appreciate people continuing to stop in, and all of the well wishes I receive on the site. It’s a lot of fun to maintain and keep up with, and that’s the sole reason I keep doing it.
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James,
That’s really cool. It’s awesome to see something with humble beginnings turn into something like this. Obviously, the quality of the site is what keeps it running. You do an excellent job evaluating prospects and I have no doubt this is why people keep on coming. You provide thorough and thoughtful evaluations and avoid blanket statements, which must be difficult to do when it comes to prospects.
Thanks again for such high-quality analysis. I visit this site all the time and I’ll continue to do so.
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Alex —
Interesting blog. My main quibble with his minor league analysis is that he ignores extremely important factors such as age and development history. Thus, a high school kid from a cool weather state like Washington (Mattair) is compared to a 4-yr college guy like Bolt on the basis of raw results only, without even a verbal correction for age, position, etc. He also ignores defensive ability.
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What’s your feeling then about the remarks from ThresherFan, who, if he lives down there must have seen most of these kids at all positions coming through town?
I hope we will see more of his presence on here, as I am a firm believer that first hand viewing of a kid playing, far outweighs all the stats in the world. Especially when you look at the dynamics of HS kids, Latin kids, even grown up college kids getting thrown into a completely foreign environment and expecting to cope with personal stuff, long hours of baseball (now a job, not just a hobby), fending for themselves, living in lousy hotels, long road trips, etc. This will pose a lot of questions when we get to other positions and really start talking about some of the Latin kids here for the first time.
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Well, based in the testiminials supporting Bolt, I will accept the possibility that he could be a late bloomer and follow him accordingly. The ceiling you can envision from his physique, conditioning, intelligence and discipline is significant.
To me his case illustrates the complexity of analyzing development risk based on age factor. I see three major developmental groups:
1. The majority of players will develop (or not) according to age-based expectations. I see this group of falling into the classic background of HS or college with average competition more or less, and no extenuating circumstances. In this group, players progress or stall, based on classic factors, such as lack of physical talent, lack of specific key skills, such as ability to hit a curve ball or get pitches consistently over the plate, or mental or emotional problems that impede training and development. This group gives age-based analysis its validity.
2. Outliers that appear to be classic cases. These are guys look like Case 1, but simply require more time to develop. They have no specific, identifiable backstory holding them back, but simply don’t “get it” until later in their twenties–or they develop another pitch or some other skill that makes a difference. Or they are simply get an opportunity, after years of being sterotyped by baseball’s legion of “genius” talent evaluators. Coste, a “tweener” with no prominent niche or attribute, is an extreme example here. This is the “stick with it” group, and based on unscientific but mindful observation over many years, I see them as representing a small minority of the overall minor league population and do not radically change the shape of the curve.
3. The “backstory” guys. They are an even smaller group, who becasue of injury history, more significant lack of skill training at a high level, or some other specific, identifiable reason, PREDICTABLY require a few more years to develop. Ruiz might be an example of this group, having had insufficient baseball experience and an injury history. Bolt might be another example, based on his story.
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Alex —
Direct observation commentary like Thresherfan’s are invaluable to us in interpretting the stats, and I admit do give me some pause that I may be undervaluing Bolt. His comments especially give me pause that I am extending too much slack to and overvaluing Murillo. With Bolt, clearly Phillies scouts saw something to take him at #15. In years past, I would assign more value to this, but this year it seems to fit in with my concept of a cheap draft year in which an undue number of college seniors and even a 5-year senior picked in top 15. I may be overreacting to that though, the scouts may be trying to achieve something specific, beyond cheap signs. With the pitchers, they do seem to be have looked for college seniors who might be turned into middle relievers fairly quickly.
I credit Thresherfan’s observation that Bolt can ‘rake period’. That was my observation of Howard at AA. And it is something a fan can observe, since some guys truly do consistently hit the ball a lot harder than the other players. It is also encouraging that he reports Bolt has good D. The easy movement and agility around 1B is something that does not necessarily develop a whole lot with age, so that is also an important fan observation, and the sort of thing we can’t easily get from the media stats.
Over time, I will credit or discredit Thresherfan’s observations more or less as I get a flavor, which I havent yet from his posts, the extent to which he considers age and experience as opposed tostraight performance in his evaluations.
I think it is correct that Bolt started at GCL out of necessity because of military commitment location.
Bolt had very good college offensive stats and may have had an ‘off’ year at GCL due to extraneous factors. Given his age, I would have expected a guy who is a truly serious prospect as a 1B to put up something like a .900 OPS in that league. We won’t really know until he plays again, and unless he can work his military commitment to play again fairly soon (at least by 2009 season) I think it is moot. But, the Phillies knew that was the risk they ran in drafting him and still picked him in 15th round, so they must have really liked his hitting potential.
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I always find these kind of players interesting, and the Phils have had more than their fair share who developed late:
* Marlon Byrd–very serious injury, not much baseball background
* Chris Roberson–limited baseball background, still reached the big leagues eventually
* Travis Chapman–held back every year because of his very unusual batting approach, then got injured and never made the majors, but was rule 5’d twice
* Carlos Ruiz–repeatedly injured in the low minors
And now Bolt will be interesting to follow…
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Just a note about Bolt being drafted in the 15th round, his dad told me that scouts had told him that Karl would likely have been drafted in the first 5 – 8 rounds if not for the military commitment uncertainty that existed at the time of the draft.
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Baseball America is reporting that the Phils have signed Angel Negron for first base. Guess he will be given a shot at Reading:
Philadelphia Phillies
Signed: LHP Cory Willey, 1B Angel Negron
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This is some great discussion. It’s really cool that we’ve got some fans here who’ve seen these kids play and can give specific, non-statistical reasons as to why they believe the kid will succeed or fail. It looks like this isn’t a lost cause after all, PP Fan.
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